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Vol. 9, No. 2
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May 28, 2013

World - Ethanol prices for the week ended 24 May, 2013

European Union (in EUR/hl pure alcohol, delivered at place, unless stated otherwise) Fuel Contract Central Current 66-68 12 months ago (25 May, 2012) 59-60 North Current 66-68 59-60 12 months ago (25 May, 2012) East Current 69-72 12 months ago (25 May, 2012) 64-67 T1 NW European ports fob Current USD 78-79 12 months ago (25 May, 2012) USD 67.5-68.5 Non-Fuel West Current 12 months ago (25 May, 2012) Central Current Contract 96 67-71 (I) 69-72 (B) 76-78 (I) 77-79 (B) 69-73 (I) 62-65 (REN) 69-73 (B) 77-79 (I) 73-75 (REN) 76-80 (B) 73-78 (I) 75-77 (B) 83-84 (I) 82-83 (B) 67-69 (I) 75-77 (I) 73-75 (I) 71-76 (B) no quote (P) 75-77 (I) 75-77 (B) 112-120 (P) T1 no quote no quote no quote no quote USD 72-74 (REN) USD 74-77 (surfin) Spot 66-68 60-63 no quote no quote 68-71 63-67 T2 64.5-65.5 59.5-60

99 71-75 (I) 78-81 (I) 70-75 (I)

12 months ago (25 May, 2012)

79-83 (I)

South

Current 12 months ago (25 May, 2012)

79-83 (I) 87-90 (I) 70-74 (I) 78-81 (I) 73-75 (I)

North East

Current 12 months ago (25 May, 2012) Current

12 months ago (25 May, 2012)

80-82 (I)

NW European ports fob Current

12 months ago (25 May, 2012)

Spot 96 99 67-69 (I) 70-73 (I) 68-72 (B) 75-77 (I) 78-81 (I) 76-78 (B) 69-72 (I) 69-73 (I) 60-65 (REN) 69-73 (B) 77-80 (I) 80-84 (I) 73-74 (REN) 76-80 (B) 73-77 (I) 79-80 (I) 72-76 (B) 81-83 (I) 88-92 (I) 81-82 (B) no quote (I) no quote (I) no quote (I) no quote (I) 71-76 (I) 72-77 (I) 73-78 (B) no quote (P) 75-77 (I) 79-82 (I) 75-77 (B) no quote (P) T2 no quote 55-57 (REN) 62-65 (surfin) 81-84 (99) 70-73 (REN) 74-77 (surfin) Non-fuel Japan/Korea Grades 575-630

Non-European markets (USD/m3) Brazil, fob Santos USA, Spot Pakistan, fob Karachi (USD/tonne)

Fuel Hydrous (EPA) Anhydrous (EPA) 570-620 650-700 Chicago New York 687-692 713-719 Anhydrous 890-900

ENA 800-820

Industrial 780-800

B: beverage; I: industrial; P: pharmaceutical; REN: rectifi extra neutre; ENA: extra neutral alcohol; EPA: Environmental Protection Agency

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European Market Comments

The traditional markets were stable, despite some downward pressure from suppliers which transferred some volumes from the fuel segment. Enquiries for REN have risen, following recent price declines, lower supplies from the long winter period earlier this year and higher demand projections for consumer product. From Italy, lower demand from the traditional segment was reported with some aggressive offers in the market. For Eastern Europe, spot prices for industrial grades settled EUR2-4 per hl higher w/w. Beverage grades were also up, but demand was slow at this price level. The fuel segment saw some downward pressure from the feedstock side. The strong prospects for the US corn crop have lowered prices sharply. Some offers were as low as EUR655 per m. Oil companies in Poland were reluctant to buy, given weak gasoline consumption. Overseas freight fixtures for ethanol included

6.5 mln litres from Mexico to ARA for mid-May on the Chembulk New Orleans, 20 mln litres from the US Gulf to Finland for mid-May on the Fairchem Friendship, 10 mln litres from Brazil to the US Gulf for mid-/late May on the Navig8 vessel in the mid- $90s per tonne, and 18 mln litres from Brazil to Korea for mid-/late June in the low-to-mid $90s per tonne

On the EU market, freight enquiries for ETBE included

up to 5,000 tonnes of ETBE from ARA to Sweden from early May. 3,000 tonnes from ARA to Sweden for prompt, 5,000 tonnes from Ravenna to Venice and Milazzo, all Italy, for mid-May, 5,000 tonnes from ARA to northern France for late May, a 6,000 tonne MTBE/ETBE cargo from southern France to Italy for late May 7,000-8,000 tonnes of ETBE from Fos to Lavera, both southern France for early June, and 5,000 tonnes from Fos to Donges, both France, also for early June.

Ethanol enquiries on the EU market included

10 mln litres from ARA to Denmark for early June 7-8 mln litres from Spain to the UK for mid-June, 12-13 mln litres from ARA to the UK for mid-June.

A 13 mln litre ethanol shipment from Central America should arrive in ARA by late May on the Nordic Oslo, freight sources added. From Pakistan, freight enquiries for 1-2 mln litres of ethanol to the United Arab Emirates for mid-/late May and for 3 mln litres to the Philippines for June were reported. There also was an enquiry for a 3 mln litre ethanol shipment for the Philippines in June with 5 mln litres due to follow in July. Vessels due to load ethanol in mid-May include the Golden Gion, the Golden Nori and the Oriental Clematis. Additionally, the vessel Al Saada is scheduled to take over 1.5 mln litres in late May.

European Market Fundamentals

European Union - The European Commission confirmed that its antitrust authorities have carried out unannounced inspections at the premises of several companies active in and providing services to the crude oil, refined oil product and biofuel sectors on May 14, 2013. These inspections took place in two EU member states. Oil major Royal Dutch Shell confirmed it was assisting the Commission's enquiry. There were also investigations in the offices of BP. Inspections were also carried out at Statoil in

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Norway, a European Economic Area (EEA) member state, the oil company, majority owned by the Norwegian government, said. The Commission has concerns that the companies may have colluded in reporting distorted prices to price reporting agency Platts to manipulate the published prices for a number of oil and biofuel products since 2002. Meanwhile, it was reported that Hungarian ethanol producer Pannonia Ethanol, a unit of Ethanol Europe, said it had alerted the European Commission over the role of price agency Platts in setting prices. Pannonia Ethanol said it approached Platts last spring to gain access to the publisher's market-on-close system - a daily half-hour window during which it determines prices on the basis of bids, offers and trades by participating companies. The pricing agency, whose benchmarks are used to set the daily price for physical oil deals, has a stringent process for letting new companies become contributors to price assessments. Pannonia Ethanol said it kept getting list after list of more things it had to do to get into the window. Platts kept saying they were exercising editorial discretion and never gave a definitive reason why they were not letting Pannonia in on the window. Platts told Reuters it followed an established process. European Union - Ethanol imports in February 2013 amounted to 75.2 mln litres. This was up on 69.3 mln litres in the preceding month and 45.1 mln one year ago. The Jan/Feb 2013 total was up on the year (144.5 mln litres vs. 78.4 mln). EU trade data showed that US ethanol imports in February 2013 amounted to 8.8 mln litres, up slightly on 8.2 mln in the preceding month. The Jan/Feb 2013 total almost tripled y/y (17.1 mln litres vs. 6.6 mln). However, these data do not include fuel ethanol shipments in blends such as E-90, which had amounted to 113.7 mln litres in Jan/Feb 2012 and fell to nil in Jan/Feb 2013 due to the EU's new tariff classification for fuel ethanol imports in blends. Despite the y/y increase in ethanol imports from the US, Pakistan was the main origin for undenatured ethanol imports in 2013 (21.5 mln litres vs. 3.7 mln), followed by Guatemala (19.4 mln vs. 9.1 mln), Peru (17.7 mln vs. 7.6 mln), Brazil (16.8 mln vs. 1.4 mln), Egypt (10.4 mln vs. 8.4 mln) and Russia (9.0 mln vs. 9.5 mln). In addition, 1.5 mln litres of denatured ethanol were imported from Pakistan, down from 2.2 mln one year ago. Shipments from Pakistan are boosted by a duty-free tariff rate quota (TRQ) for undenatured ethanol set at 75,000 tonnes for 2013. European Union - EU ethanol industry group ePURE said it asked the European Commission to investigate if EU customs legislation is properly applied in Finland. Evidence from several sources indicates that fuel ethanol blended with gasoline coming from the US and destined for the EU market will be classified as an ethanol blend with much lower import duties than denatured ethanol, creating an unfair market situation and circumvention of import duties. The blend consisting of 92% ethanol and 8% gasoline is entering the community in Finland and will be brought into free circulation on the Common Market. There is a serious concern that the blend is not classified according to regulation 211/2012 as denatured ethanol but as a chemical. Spain - Fuel ethanol consumption in March 2013 was estimated at 27.9 mln litres, preliminary industry data imply. Q1 2013 fuel ethanol consumption would then be down slightly on the year (82.3 mln litres vs. 92.6 mln), reflecting the slight cut in the minimum blending obligation to 3.9% cal. from 4.1% cal. before. Sweden - Sales of E-85 in Sweden continued to stay at depressed levels in April as the fuel remains uncompetitive at the pump. Total deliveries were no more than 15.0 mln litres, slightly up on the 11.9 mln 2013 Informa UK Ltd ISSN: 1759-1414
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seen in March, but sharply down on the 22.0 mln one year earlier. This brought cumulative sales so far in 2013 to 46.1 mln litres against 66.7 mln in Jan/Apr 2012. Total sales in 2012 were 218.5 mln litres. Meanwhile sales of gasoline (E-5) were also lower in April reaching only 300.0 mln litres, down 5% y/y. As a result total fuel ethanol consumption in April can be estimated at 27.8 mln litres down from 33.4 mln in the same month a year ago. Cumulatively, fuel ethanol sales have dropped to 97.4 mln litres from 114 mln in the same period a year ago. United Kingdom - Fuel ethanol consumption in April 2013 was 66 mln litres. This brought the Jan/Apr 2013 total to 256.0 mln litres, up 10 mln on the year (Jan/Dec 2012: 774 mln litres). The average blending share in Jan/Apr 2013 was 4.4% vol. This compares with 3.9% vol. one year ago (4.1% vol.).

Brazilian Market Comments

Industry sources reported that cane crushing in recent days was supported by dry weather. Temporary price declines were not sufficient to boost demand for hydrous fuel grades at the pump. However, there were also fears that mills may process more cane into sugar, given current economics and the prospect for rains in the coming week which both supported prices. Hydrous fuel ethanol in Sao Paulo was at BRL1,220-1,250 per m including ICMS, anhydrous fuel grades were around BRL1,300. Selling interest for both grades was low. On the export market, offers industrial grades for Asia were at $630 per m fob Santos. Asking prices for hydrous fuel grades were at $620 per m fob Santos, anhydrous at $700. Brazil - Helped by excellent weather conditions sugar production surged during April reaching 1.692 mln tonnes, tel quel, by May 1, latest data by Unica showed. This represents a rise of 210% from last year when 545,000 tonnes were produced. Total ethanol production was also sharply up on the year reaching 1.577 bln litres but the percentage growth was lower than that of sugar (+188%). This comes as a surprise as it was widely expected that mills would concentrate on producing ethanol after the government had introduced several tax perks for the green fuel. What the figures also reveal is that the quality of the cane is much better than last year with sugarcane production reaching 41.005 mln tonnes, a rise of 190%. Unica said that 220 of the roughly 300 mills in the Centre/South had begun crushing by May 1, compared with 154 mills operating by this time last year. Meanwhile, sales of ethanol on the local market show strong signs of recovery. According to Unica data a total of 1.519 bln litres were sold domestically, up from 1.322 bln in April 2012. Of the April 2013 total 547 mln litres were anhydrous alcohol (474 mln) and 972 mln hydrous alcohol (847 mln). The export markets on the other hand were somewhat weaker with total sales reaching 70 mln litres, down from 73 mln in the same period a year ago.

US Market Comment
Ethanol prices were lower w/w following corn prices. The latter have come down from the price level seen in mid-May, which can be attributed to the most recent official data on planting progress. The CBOT front-month contract settled at $2.604 per gallon, down from $2.628 one week ago. On the spot market ethanol prices declined by an average $0.10 per gallon on the week. In Chicago, ethanol prices were in the low $2.60s per gallon, while New York harbour barges were in the low $2.70s. Gulf Coast ethanol was in the low $2.70s against the low $2.80s while West Coast product fell to the low $2.80s from the mid $2.80s.

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United States - US fuel ethanol output in the week to May 17, 2013 was at an average 875,000 barrels per day (bpd), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported. This compares with 857,000 bpd in the preceding week and was the highest average since late June 2012, just ahead of the devastating drought. Fuel ethanol output in mid-May was supported by a decline in corn prices boosted by strong official data on planting progress. Y/y, fuel ethanol production remained down (919,000 bpd). Fuel ethanol imports amounted to nil for the sixth time in the last seven weeks. Refiner and blender net inputs were 860,000 bpd of fuel ethanol, up 14,000 w/w. Fuel ethanol stocks fell for the fourth consecutive week, settling at 16.2 mln barrels, down from 16.4 mln. Stocks have now reached the lowest level since November 2010. W/w, there were declines on the East Coast (5.4 mln barrels vs. 5.5 mln), the Midwest (5.9 mln vs. 6.0 mln) and the Gulf Coast (2.2 mln vs. 2.4 mln), which more than offset a slight increase on the West Coast (2.3 mln vs. 2.2 mln).

Asian Market Comments

The fuel ethanol market in the Asia remains quiet. Sellers offer product in the high $700s per m3 on a delivered Philippines basis while buyers bid in the mid $700s. With Thailand not selling and the high prices in the US the market is tight. Smaller volumes were traded out of Indonesia to fill in some gaps. In the meantime demand in the Philippines is a bit lower than expected as E-10 is not yet sold at every pump station. Rumour has it that there are discussions in Manila to change the biofuel program in such a way that grain alcohol is excluded from the feedstock mix for fuel ethanol. Even though players rate the chances of success of such a measure as very low it shows that the domestic industry continues to be discontent with the way the biofuels program is handled. Pakistan - Industry sources told F.O. Licht that there was a sharp increase in ethanol shipments to the EU in Jan/Apr 2013. The shipments are boosted by the EU's duty-free tariff rate quota (TRQ) for undenatured ethanol from Pakistan which was set at 75,000 tonnes for Jan/Dec 2013. However, the main destination remained South Korea. Total ethanol exports in April 2013 were 55.4 mln litres. This brought the Jan/Apr 2013 total to 215.0 mln litres, up from 123.1 mln one year ago (Jan/Dec 2012: 472.4 mln). South Korea was the destination for more than half of Pakistan's ethanol exports in Jan/Apr 2013 (135.8 mln litres vs. 67.5 mln one year earlier). Exports to the EU rose to 40.6 mln litres of undenatured ethanol from 21.7 mln, while shipments to the Philippines fell to 13.4 mln from 14.7 mln. Denatured ethanol exports to Turkey rose to 10.1 mln litres from 7.5 mln (undenatured grades 4.4 mln vs. 1.2 mln).

ISSN: 1759-1414 2013 Informa UK Ltd. Conditions of sale: 1. All rights reserved, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission of the Publisher. Photocopying Licence: Informa UK Ltd. does not participate in a copying agreement with any Copyright Licensing Agency. Photocopying without permission is illegal. Contact the Marketing Department to obtain a photocopying license. 2. All abstracting of the content for republication and sale must have prior permission from the Publisher. 3. The publication must not be circulated outside the staff who work at the address to which it is sent, without prior agreement with the Publisher. EDITORS: Dr Christoph Berg MARKETING: Rachel Evans Additional Subscriptions: Additional copies are available on request. Please contact the customer operations department on: 44 (0)20 7017 7057 or email agra.enquiries@informa.com. World Ethanol Price Report is published weekly by F.O. Licht, a division of Informa UK Ltd., Guardian House, 119 Farringdon Road, London EC1R 3DA, United Kingdom
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