Modelling biodiversity strengthens SEA and land use planning

Need for information on biodiversity loss Policymakers are increasingly aware of the risks of uncontrolled biodiversity loss, and need to be well informed about expected level of loss. They need information about current and expected trends in biodiversity change. Existing information on biodiversity is often fragmented and of variable quality. Additional insights are needed into the main driving forces of biodiversity loss, such as land-use change, so that a policy maker will be able to identify underlying processes causing these losses. Biodiversity modelling can provide this information and can be used as a decision support tool. The aim of the tool is to support decision makers with adjusting existing policies and with designing of alternative policy options that take environmental objectives into account. Using models as a tool in the decision-making process related to biodiversity aspects on regional and (sub-)national scales is relatively new, but is likely to become the norm. GLOBIO3 biodiversity model The GLOBIO3 model has been developed to assess human-induced changes in terrestrial biodiversity, in past present and future at national, regional and global scales (Alkemade et al, 2009). Different types of models can be used for understanding the relation between biodiversity changes and their causes. The GLOBIO3 model is a pressure-based model that can be used even if only limited information on biodiversity is available. The GLOBIO3 model uses one of the indicator types listed by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD, 2006): the Mean abundance of original Species relative to their Abundance in undisturbed ecosystems (MSA). It describes the naturalness of an area compared to its undisturbed situation. The MSA indicator combines ecosystem extent (quantity) with ecosystem quality. The indicator does not have to be measured in the field, which in general would be time consuming and costly, but can be calculated by using existing information on driving forces. GLOBIO3 is built on simple causeeffect relationships between pressures and biodiversity impacts. The model determines the combined impact of the following pressures: land-use change, infrastructure development, fragmentation, climate change and in some cases atmospheric nitrogen deposition. In addition, population pressure is used as an additional pressure to determine the impact of infrastructural development. The intensity of these pressures is derived from available statistical data, spatial maps, other models and expert knowledge. The causeeffect relationships of the different pressures on biodiversity are derived from available literature, using meta-analysis for comparable ecosystems. The quality of this generic information can be improved for local conditions with the help of local data sets and expert knowledge. GLOBIO3 has been used successfully in several integrated assessments on global, regional, national and sub-national level 1. Recently the GLOBIO-aquatic model has been developed for the assessment of inland aquatic ecosystems. Integration of GLOBIO3 and CLUE land-use model The CLUE model (Conversion of Land Use change and its Effects ) is a model that is used for carrying out a regional analysis of land-use change (Verburg, 2004). CLUE quantifies land-use changes by defining the bio-geophysical and human drivers of agricultural land use, on the basis of current land use. Land-use scenario information and thematic maps of factors determining land-use potentials are used for predicting future land use.
1

See, for instance, in Ecosystems Journal: http://www.springerlink.com/content/tr13200728471072; and a regional application in Northern Thailand: http://www.springerlink.com/content/l27lv0qtj1234068/

Land-use change, in many countries, is the most important driver of biodiversity change. For assessment of future biodiversity loss due to land-use changes, the GLOBIO3 model was integrated with the CLUE land-use model. The integration of GLOBIO3 and CLUE allows assessing the impact of different scenarios or policy alternatives on both land-use change and biodiversity. With the help of the CLUE model, a map of future land-use is generated that can be used as an input layer for the assessment of future biodiversity. For each policy alternative, a future land-use map is generated, which is then fed into the GLOBIO3 model to calculate the impact on future biodiversity. The required input maps do not need to be more detailed than the output maps. Existing land-use maps are an important source of information and satellite images and expert knowledge can be used for improving the land use map with up-to-date land-use categories. Thus, the use of this tool enables a relatively quick and cheap assessment of the biodiversity in an area. What information can be generated with the models? The GLOBIOCLUE decision support tool is an instrument for policymakers who want to incorporate biodiversity objectives into the policy-making process. The models can be used for assessing whether policies meet environmental objectives for biodiversity. With help of the models decision makers will be able to: Analyze the drivers behind pressures so that socio-economic development and biodiversity conservation can be optimized. Analyze the main pressures per administrative region that lead to biodiversity loss. This result will help prioritizing policy actions. Link socio-economic developments and environmental protection with current policies; e.g. climate adaptation measures Get a spatial distribution of past, current and future biodiversity Generate expected land use and biodiversity trends under various future scenarios Analyze the impact of existing and future policies on land use change and biodiversity. Get support with the formulation of additional policy alternatives. Test whether current or future policies are likely to meet environmental objectives on biodiversity. Test whether current or future policies are likely to meet environmental objectives on biodiversity. Biodiversity modelling in SEA Land use and biodiversity modelling can be a valuable tool for policy makers who want to integrate environmental aspects in their decision making process. But in order to make it a part of a standard policy toolkit, modelling should preferably be embedded in a political process that directly benefits from it. The Integrated Assessment (IA) approach and more specific the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) methodology appear to be well suited for embedding the models. Policies, plans and projects often have important environmental, social and human rights effects, but the indirect effects (impacts) on ecosystems and on people as a result of the complex interrelations between biophysical and social issues are often neglected. This is especially the case where global trade-related issues play a role. The Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) looks at the impacts of proposed plans, policies and programmes. It has a mixed quantitative / qualitative character and is more pro-active in terms of proposing more sustainable alternatives and integrates environmental, social and economic impacts. SEA is most commonly being applied to spatial plans like land use plans, sectoral policies and programmes, often with complex potential impacts.

The GLOBIO3 and CLUE models can support the SEA by quantifying the impact of suggested projects and plans on the environment. They can be used as a decision-support tool, and to assess the specific impact of policy alternatives on land use and biodiversity change. Since SEA is generally applied at early stages of decision-making, the information generated with modelling can help policymakers in testing weather policy options are likely to be in line with natural resource objectives, or need associated measures to ensure coherence. Table 1. Building blocks for an Integrated Assessment (UNEP, 2009) Integrated Assessment building blocks A. Process A1: Process design and links B. Policy institutional context B1: Institutional analysis and change C. Analytical Contents C1: Strategic framework and identification of key C2: Trends and scenarios C3: Identification of opportunities and formulating alternative policy options C4: Assessment of impacts / risks and benefits. C5: Monitoring and evaluation

A2: Policy-making B2: IA team organizational decision windows model A3: Communication B3: Stakeholder engagement strategy and strengthening civil society B4: Evaluation and learning

Table 1 shows the general building blocks of an Integrated Assessment according a classification by UNEP (UNEP, 2009). This structure is also applicable for SEA. Land use and Biodiversity modelling fits well in the analytical part as described in Column C. With modelling information for key questions in relation to land use and biodiversity can be generated and the methodology allows integration of the impact of major drivers that lead to biodiversity loss (C1). In addition, the land use and biodiversity status for past, present and future can be calculated allowing the generation of trends (C2), and to determine the future status modelling helps building and quantifying land use scenarios (C2). Alternative policy options can be used as input for the models to test whether their impact on land use and biodiversity meets agreed targets or risks. The analysis of this result can be used to: formulate new policy options (C3), assess the impact and risks (C4) and used to monitor and evaluate the ecological impact of the project or plan that is being assessed (C5). An SEA might be applied for an entire sector or to a geographical area. In contrary to most Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA), SEA is in general applied before political decisions are taken for implementation. SEA is therefore proactive and sustainability driven whilst EIA is largely reactive (Slootweg et al. 2006). With the help of modelling, policy decisions can first be evaluated on their general biodiversity impact, before decisions are made that might have a large impact on the environment. A big advantage of using land use and biodiversity modelling as support tools in SEA is the quantification aspect. Many SEA reports lack quantitative information on the biodiversity status in a country or region. Existing information on biodiversity is in general scattered and not complete. Information is available for hot spot areas but is often lacking for large human influenced areas. Additional inventories could provide such information but are generally too costly and time intensive. The GLOBIO3 model allows generating information on biodiversity indirectly and uses existing data sources. With the help of this methodology, information on biodiversity can be quantified for past, present and future and makes it possible to calculate the ecological impact of plans and policies, which is an important contribution to an SEA.

Modelling for the SEA of the Quang Nam Land Use Plan In October 2009 the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) and the Environmental Operations Centre (EOC) started the first pilot project on Biodiversity modelling Inclusive Strategic Environmental Assessment in Vietnam. The SEA is implemented for the Quang Nam Land Use Plan 2011-2020 in Viet Nam. Its goal is to improve understanding of the potential of land use and biodiversity modelling methods in the SEA. The GLOBIO3 and CLUE methodology are implemented at province level and draft guidelines are being developed for the use of land use and biodiversity modelling in SEA. Land use planning in Quang Nam faces the challenge of balancing rapid economic growth with conservation of its natural resources and safeguarding livelihoods that depend on them. Coastal plains have been transformed into intensive farming systems and aquaculture. Mining, hydropower developments and a growing land demand increases pressure on Quang Nams Annamite mountain range, resulting in natural land conversion and erosion. This erosion compromise agricultural productivity both in the hills and on the lower flood plains, but also lowers the attractiveness of eco and ethno tourism in the area. A lower productivity and reduced potential of tourism are in sharp contrast with the political desire of the province to intensify crop production and enhance tourism. Planning processes like the Quang Nam LUP 2011-2020 increasingly recognize the complexity of cause-effect relationships between different development sectors and the need to integrate present planning procedures with impacts on the environment and on Ecosystem Goods and Services. The GLOBIO3 and Clue models present a unique opportunity to improve geographic resolution both spatial and temporal of impact assessments, leading to more accurate targeting of adaptation and mitigation responses. Two land use policy alternatives for 2020 were developed with experts from Quang Nam leading to a conservation alternative (scenario 1) and a maximum economic development alternative (scenario 2). The conservation scenario aimed at conservation of natural assets to secure and enhance tourism and hydropower developments that need healthy ecosystems. Increased agricultural production is met by intensification of the existing crop area. The second policy alternative focuses on timber harvesting and increased agricultural production achieved by conversion of additional land rather than productivity enhancement.

Figure 1. MSA trends for the protected areas in Quang Nam Both policy alternatives were quantified with help of provincial scenario data and local land use maps and used as input for the CLUE land use model. Other spatial parameters were added to the model and a future land use map was generated for each policy alternative. These future land use maps were used as main input for the GLOBIO3 model in order to calculate the future biodiversity maps. The future land

use and biodiversity maps were overlaid with a protected area map, hydro power catchments map and a poverty incidence map to measure the land use and biodiversity change impact on these environment dependent elements. Disaggregation per protected area made it possible to calculate the contribution of each pressure to the overall biodiversity loss. The final results of this modelling exercise can now be used by the local government to test if the impacts of the policy alternatives are in line with their expectations.

Figure 2. MSA change map for Quang Nam from 2007 to 2020 (Scenario2)

References Alkemade, R., Oorschot, M. van, Miles, L., Nellemann, C., Bakkenes, M., & ten Brink, B. (2009). GLOBIO3: A Framework to Investigate Options for Reducing Global Terrestrial Biodiversity Loss. Ecosystems, 12(3), 374-90. CBD. ( 2006). Convention on Biological Diversity: Global Biodiversity Outlook 2. Montreal, 81pp. EOC 2011, Strategic Environmental Assessment for Quang Nam Land Use Plan 2011-2020 (In press) Verburg, Peter (2004) The CLUE-S model. Tutorial CLUE-S (version 2.4) and DYNA-Clue (version 2). Download from website: http://www.cluemodel.nl/ Slootweg, R, Kolhoff, A., Verheem, R. & Hft. R. (2006). Biodiversity in EIA and SEA. Background document to CBD Decision VIII/28: Voluntary Guidelines on Biodiversity-Inclusive Impact Assessment. The Netherlands,