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June 5, 2013
IVRCL Infrastructure
Performance Highlights
Y/E March (` cr) Revenue EBITDA PAT 3QFY13 1,494 134 6 4QFY12 1,598 103 5 % chg (yoy) (6.5) 30.0 22.6 2QFY13 1,270 68 (68) % chg (qoq) 17.6 96.8 -
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net debt Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Infrastructure 578 2,748 2.0 55/17 1,523,135 2 19,568 5,924 IVRC.BO IVRC@IN
`19 `29
12 months
For 3QFY2013, IVRCL ltd (IVRCL) reported a good set of numbers on the profitability front, which were significantly above our and consensus estimates. The companys order book stands at ~`27,444cr (including L1 ordes).
During the quarter, the company has entered into a definitive sale agreement with TRIL Roads Pvt Ltd to divest stake (74%) in its three road BOT projects. As per the Management, these asset sales are intended towards meeting the equity requirement for the road BOT projects and reducing debt levels. High other income boots bottom-line: The company reported revenues of
`1,494cr in 4QFY2013, a decline of 6.5% yoy (slightly below our estimate of `1,520cr). The EBITDAM grew by 252bp/360bp on a yoy/qoq basis to 9.0% for
the quarter, and was above our estimate of 8.7%. This was mainly on account of pick up in execution and lower base of last year. The interest cost grew by 100.7%/16.9 on a yoy/qoq basis to `133cr for the quarter. On the earnings front, IVRCLs PAT grew by 22.6% yoy to `6cr (our estimate was of a loss of `22cr) in 3QFY2013. This was mainly on back of higher-than-expected other income of `44cr (a jump of 698% yoy). The other income includes a gain of `35cr on account of monetization of a land parcel in Noida. Outlook and valuation: IVRCL has a strong order book of ~`27,444cr (4.8x trailing revenue), which provides comfortable revenue visibility. However the proportion of slow moving orders remains high in the current order book. Given the slower-than-expected execution and weak performance in FY2013, we lower the EPS estimates for FY2014 to `1.4 and introduce FY2015E EPS to `1.8. The stock is trading at FY2015E P/E (including subsidiaries) and P/BV of 10.3x and 0.3x respectively. We recommend Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `29.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 13.7 2.9 24.7 58.7
3m 2.2
1yr 22.1
(24.1) (51.7)
Viral Shah
022-39357800 Ext: 6842 viralk.shah@angelbroking.com
% chg (yoy) (6.5) (9.0) 30.0 252bp 100.7 (19.2) 698.4 49.6 62.3 22.6 10bp 22.6 10bp
2QFY13 1,270 1,202 68 5.4 114 22 17 (50) 18 (68) (5.4) (68) (5.4) (2.22)
% chg (qoq) 17.6 13.2 96.8 360bp 16.9 (0.2) 149.3 (146.3) (7.3) (108.9) (107.6) (108.9) 577bp (110.2)
9MFY2013 37,591 34,868 2723 7.2 3479 640 704 (691) 325 (1017) 0.3 (1017) 0.3 (33.13)
9MFY2012 38,466 35,552 2915 7.6 2854 747 998 311 113 199 2.8 199 2.8 6.47
% chg (yoy) (2.3) (1.9) (6.6) (33)bp 21.9 (14.4) (29.5) (321.9) 188.5 (611.7) (611.7) (250)bp (611.7)
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9,898
184
9,071
Water
Transport
Building
Power
Water
Transport
Building
Power
Mining
International
Change in estimates
Considering the poor performance in FY2013, we are revising our revenue estimates for FY2014 to `5,673cr and introduce our FY2015 revenue estimate at `5,892cr. The EBITDAM has been revised to 8.1% for FY2014. Due to lower-thanexpected revenue performance and higher interest cost, we are now estimating a PAT of `44cr (our earlier estimate was of a profit of `72cr) and `56cr for FY2014 and FY2015, respectively.
FY2015E Variation (%) (9.8) (78)bp (38.5) Earlier Estimates 5,892 8.4 56 Revised Estimates 5,892 8.4 56 Variation (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 5,673 8.1 44
Revised Estimates
6,287 8.5 72
June 5, 2013
1.4 1.8
Company background
IVRCL is one of the leading construction companies in India. Set up in 1987, the company is based in Hyderabad and is promoted by E Sudhir Reddy. IVRCL has a track record of executing infrastructure projects over the last two decades. The company is the leader in water management and irrigation systems in India. It also operates in the construction of road, buildings, industrial structures and power transmission towers.
June 5, 2013
13,358 14,850 15,631 60,873 68,946 78,040 5,725 1,811 5,897 2,040 6,167 2,462 6,308 2,146 6,945 2,731 7,033 2,339
1,420 1,761
177.2 123.2
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20.1 (29.3)
(349.1) (171.7)
(6.6) (25.2)
(53.3) (25.2)
June 5, 2013
FY10 53 1,800 1,853 1,613 12 3,479 750 184 566 35 614 4,700 245 1,945 164 661 1,686 2,437 2,264 3,479
FY11 53 1,934 1,987 2,096 9 4,092 924 232 692 26 635 5,452 273 1,930 143 953 2,153 2,713 2,739 4,092
FY12(15M) 53 8 2,209 2,270 2,638 (39) 4,870 1,011 321 690 2 1,584 5,569 272 1,926 88 1,425 1,857 2,975 2,594 4,870
FY13E(9M) 61 2,108 2,169 2,505 (31) 4,643 1,043 385 657 2 1,654 6,126 269 1,867 92 1,772 2,127 3,796 2,331 4,643
FY14E 61 2,124 2,185 2,605 (31) 4,759 1,103 482 621 2 1,654 6,055 278 2,005 96 1,913 1,762 3,572 2,483 4,759
FY15E 61 2,151 2,213 2,705 (31) 4,887 1,163 584 579 2 1,654 6,344 288 2,098 66 2,024 1,866 3,691 2,653 4,887
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Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage
FY10 2.4 1.9 0.3 4.2 0.4 3.7 0.6 7.9 7.9 9.9 0.8 69.3 8.7 64.2 1.7 9.5 9.0 0.7 9.9 14.2 15.0 11.5 7.8 15 109 135 212 0.8 2.7 2.2
FY11 3.2 2.2 0.3 3.2 0.4 4.8 0.6 5.9 5.9 8.8 0.6 74.3 7.8 67.9 1.6 8.2 9.6 0.9 7.0 11.6 12.2 8.2 6.8 17 125 164 235 1.0 3.8 1.7
FY12(15M) 32.0 4.2 0.3 0.5 6.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 4.5 73.9 6.2 39.1 1.4 3.4 8.4 1.1 (1.8) 8.5 8.8 0.8 6.4 20 142 207 280 1.1 5.1 0.8
FY13E(9M) 0.3 0.8 10.7 0.6 (3.3) (3.3) (1.2) 70.6 5.6 147.1 0.8 6.6 19.9 1.1 (8.3) 4.4 4.5 (4.6) 3.7 20 139 246 255 1.1 8.9 0.6
FY14E 13.1 4.1 0.3 4.2 0.5 6.5 0.6 1.4 1.4 4.6 0.8 71.1 6.4 67.0 1.2 5.3 10.1 1.1 (0.1) 7.8 7.9 2.0 5.3 18 125 234 226 1.1 5.4 1.0
FY15E 10.3 3.7 0.3 4.2 0.5 6.3 0.6 1.8 1.8 5.2 0.8 72.0 6.7 67.0 1.2 5.6 10.1 1.2 0.3 8.2 8.3 2.6 5.2 18 127 221 234 1.2 5.3 1.0
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E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
IVRCL No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
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