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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| June 7, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Currencies and Commodities Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report


Friday| June 7, 2013

Highlights
Indian Rupee touched a low of 57-mark mark in yesterdays trading session. st US Unemployment Claims declined to 346,000 for w/e on 31 May. German Factory Orders declined by 2.3 percent in April April. ECB cuts the growth forecast of Euro region to -0.6 0.6 percent for 2013.

Market Highlights (% change)


Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI 5921.4 19519.5 15040.62 1622.6 16525.1 1959.2 58497.8 12904.0 94.76 1415.70 22.70 7330.00 102.09 Prev. day 0.0 -0.2 0.5 0.8 -2.6 -1.5 0.2 -0.9 1.1 1.2 0.0 -1.5 0.0

as on June 6, 2013 WoW -3.3 -3.4 -1.9 -1.9 -4.8 -2.0 7.1 -0.1 1.2 1.7 2.1 0.4 -2.4 MoM -2.0 -1.9 -0.3 0.3 -3.8 0.1 6.2 -14.5 -1.7 -1.5 -3.9 -6.6 -0.5 -0.8 YoY 21.8 6.7 21.2 23.4 27.4 2.0 8.0 53.9 11.5 -13.3 -20.4 -

Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of expectations that Federal Reserve will cut its stimulus spending after favorable jobless claims data from US in yesterdays trade. US Unemployment Claims declined by 11,000 to 346,000 for week st ending on 31 May as against a rise of 357,000 in prior week week.

BOVESPA NIKKEI

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined 1.3 percent as positive market sentiments led ed to pressure on the currency. Global equities witnessed a bounce back in sentiments as a result of favorable jobless claims data from the US. The currency touched an intra-day day low of 8 81.07 and closed at 81.54 on Thursday.

Nymex Crude (July13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(July13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield

Dollar/INR
The Rupee depreciated in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on account of heavy dollar demand from oil importers coupled with strength in the DX in early part of the trade. Additionally, there were expectations of pullback in stimulus measures by Fed which exerted downside pressure on the Rupee Rupee. The currency touched an intra-day low of 57.0 and closed at 56.92 against dollar on Thursday. For the month of June 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs. Rs.343.20 crores th ($60.57 million) as on 6 June 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.83,548.30 crores ($15,413.60 413.60 million) till 6 June 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect the Rupee to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments. Further, dol dollar demand from oil importers will add more pressure on the currency. The DX is expected to take cues from economic data releases from the country. The trend in the currency is largely expected to be stronger as positive economic data supports the view that hat the Federal Reserve would move forward to gradually withdraw stimulus measures.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR June13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX) 81.54 56.92 57.01 57.05 Prev. day -1.3 -0.1 0.06 0.14 WoW -1.8 -1.0 0.59 0.66

as on June 6, 2013 MoM -1.6 -5.3 5.06 5.13 YoY 2.6 -2.4 2.62 2.70

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR June13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for June 7, 2013 Support 56.90/56.80 Resistance 57.20/57.35

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Currencies Daily Report


Friday| June 7, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated 1.2 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weakness in the DX and on statement from by European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi that the regions economy will grow gradually over a period of time. The ECB however cut its economic outlook -0.6 percent growth for 2013 from previous estimates of -0.5 percent. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3304 4 and closed at 1.3 1.3245 against the dollar on Thursday. German Factory Orders declined by 2.3 percent in April as against a rise of 2.3 percent a month ago. European Minimum Bid Rate remained unchanged at 0.5 percent in the month of June. Outlook In todays session, we expect the Euro to weaken on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global markets. Further, expectations of unfavorable economic data from the region along with cut in the economic outlook by the ECB will exert more downside pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR June13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 74.60/74.40 74.90/75.10 valid for June 7, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR June 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3245 75.29 74.7 Prev. day 1.2 -1.1 0.49

as on June 6, 2013 WoW 1.5 -2.4 1.74 MoM 1.3 -6.4 5.08 YoY 6.4 -8.0 7.58

74.8

0.54

1.78

5.12

7.68

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR June13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR June 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5601 88.679 88.02 Prev. day 1.29 1.48 0.76

as on June 6, 2013

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated 1.3 percent yesterday on the back of weakness in the DX. The Sterling Pound touched an intra intra-day high of 1.5683 and closed at 1.5601 against dollar on Thursday. day. UKs Halifax House Price Index (HPI) grew at a slow pace of 0.4 percent in May as against a rise of 1.1 percent in April. Asset Purchase F Facility was at 375 billion Pounds in June. Official Bank Rate also remained unchanged at 0.5 percent in current month. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note on the back of weak global market sentiments. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR June 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for June 7, 2013 Support 87.90/87.70 Resistance 88.30/88.50

WoW 2.4 3.27 2.73

MoM 0.8 5.35 4.34

YoY 1.4 3.49 2.30

88.04

0.76

2.76

4.33

2.29

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report


Friday| June 7, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated 2.1 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global markets in early part of the trade which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 95.96 and closed at 96. .94 against dollar on Thursday. Outlook For intra-day, we expect the Japanese Yen to appreciate appreciate, taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global markets, which will lead to increase in demand for the low-yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR June 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for June 7, 2013 Support 57.45/57.30 Resistance 57.75/57.90 Last 96.94 0.5836 57.57 57.61 Prev day -2.1 1.80 0.63 0.69 as on June 6, 2013 WoW -3.8 4.63 3.04 3.12 MoM -2.1 7.02 5.21 5.29 YoY 23.1 -16.44 -17.83 -17.79

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR June13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on June 7, 2013


Indicator German Trade Balance Consumer Inflation Expectations Trade Balance German Industrial Production m/m Non-Farm Employment Change Unemployment Rate Average Hourly Earnings m/m Country Euro UK UK Euro US US US Time (IST) 11:30am 2:00pm 2:00pm 3:30pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm Actual Forecast 16.5B -8.8B 0.0% 167K 7.5% 0.2% Previous 17.6B 3.6% -9.1B 1.2% 165K 7.5% 0.2% Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium High High Medium

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