Kazakhstan

SEB MERCHANT BANKING – COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS February 16, 2009

Analyst: Jenny Nordgren. Tel: +46 8 763 96 05. E-mail: jenny.nordgren@seb.se

The sharp fall in oil prices, the ongoing global financial crisis and the exchange rate devaluation put
pressure on Kazakhstan’s external finances and its banking system. The authorities’ response to the
deteriorated situation risk having an adverse impact on the strong public finances.

Country Risk Analysis

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ÅçããçÇáíó=éêáÅÉë=ëáåÅÉ=ä~ëí=ëìããÉêI=íÜÉ=
15.0%
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5.0%
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êÉëìäíI=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=~Åíáîáíó=áë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç= 0.0%
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çáä=éêáÅÉ=Çêçé=Eçáä=~ÅÅçìåíë=Ñçê=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=RM=B=çÑ=íçí~ä=ÉñéçêíëFI=áë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç=éìí=
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important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights.
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis February 19, 2009

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How to read the chart? Resilience
Key ratios 2009 Moving out from the center 12

10
reduces risk.
Population (mill.) 15.6 8

GDP/capita ($) 7959 Macro balance 4

Liquidity
2
GDP (change) 2.5% 0

Inflation 7.5%
Curr.Acc. Balance/GDP -8.0%
Absence of event
Reserves/imports (months) 12.1 risk
Information

Budget balance/GDP -4.0% Kazakhstan Average EM

Russia
Government debt/GDP 6%

bñíÉêå~ä=ê~íáåÖëW= mÉÉêëW Graph: The pentagon shows the creditworthiness of

cáíÅÜW=___LåÉÖ= oìëëá~= Kazakhstan as close to average on liquidity, resilience and
jççÇóDëW=_~~O= fåÇá~= macro balance but weaker on event risk and information
pCmW==___JLåÉÖ ^äÖÉêá~ compared with the average EM country or one of its peers,
Russia.
=
=
2
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis February 19, 2009

Key data: 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
GDP (bill.US$) 43.2 57.1 81.0 103.4 140.8 124.5 139.8 158.6
GDP/capita (US$) 2856 3755 5290 6707 9063 7959 8874 9993
GDP (change) 9.4% 9.8% 10.6% 9.5% 3.8% 2.5% 4.0% 7.0%
Investments/GDP 29% 38% 50% 58% 68% 79% 88% 94%
Budget balance/GDP 1.9% 5.1% 7.4% 5.0% -3.0% -4.0% -3.0% -3.5%
Govt debt/GDP 10% 7% 6% 5% 4% 6% 8% 8%
CPI inflation (%) 6.8% 7.5% 8.6% 10.8% 17.1% 7.5% 8.0% 6.0%
Money demand (%) 34% 68% 26% 78% 26%
Stock prices (%change)
Interest rates 5.9% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%
Exch. Rate ($) 136.04 132.88 126.09 122.55 120.40 150.00 150.00 150.00
Trade/GDP (%) 96% 98% 92% 93% 85% 80% 82% 84%
Oil price (Brent) $38 $54 $65 $73 $98 $45 $60 $74
Billions US $
Export of goods 22.7 30.5 41.5 51.9 70.3 48.6 60.3 74.4
Imports of goods 18.9 25.5 32.9 44.8 49.5 51.4 54.9 59.3
Other: -3.4 -6.1 -10.6 -14.4 -9.9 -16.6 -17.2 -17.8
Current account 0.3 -1.1 -2.0 -7.3 10.9 -19.4 -11.8 -2.7
(% of GDP) 0.8% -1.8% -2.5% -7.1% 7.8% -8.0% -8.4% -1.7%
FDI 2.1 4.2 2.0 6.3 10.2 7.8 5.0 5.4
Loan repayments -2.7 -4.6 -7.8 -11.6 -11.6 -13.6 -16.0 -14.0
Net other capital flows 4.5 -0.9 19.5 10.7 -6.1 26.2 23.8 12.6
Balance of payments 4.2 -2.4 11.7 -2.0 3.4 1.0 1.1 1.2
Reserves 8.5 6.1 17.7 15.8 19.2 20.2 21.2 22.5
Total debt 32.7 43.4 74.0 96.7 88.0 103.5 113.0 115.1
o/w short term debt 2.8 3.9 8.1 12.4 11.7 19.8 20.2 20.4
Source: OEF (Oxford Economic Forecasting) and SEB estimates.

Rating history

Fitch (eoy) BBB- BBB BBB BBB BBB-

S&P (eoy) BBB- BBB- BBB BBB- BBB-
Type of government: Parliamentary democracy in form, but autocracy in practice
Next elections 2012
Other:
Latest PC deal
Recent IMF programs EFF 1999-2002 (allocated amount not utilized)

D o m e s tic b a n k le n d in g
In fla tio n
6 2 2 .5

2 0 .0
5
KZT (thousand billions)

1 7 .5
4 1 5 .0
Percent

3 C o r p o r a te s 1 2 .5

1 0 .0
2
7 .5
1 5 .0
H o u s e h o ld s
0 2 .5
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
C la im s to H o use ho ld s C la i m s to P riva te No nfina nc ia l Ins ti tutio ns a r 1 2 m o nths
S o u rce : R e u te rs E c o W in S o u r ce : R e u te rs E c o W i n

H o u s in g A lm a ty , K Z T /m 2 E x te rn a l D e b t
400000 110
100
90
300000 80
KZT/squaremetre

USD (billions)

70
60
200000 50
40
30
100000 20
10
0
0 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Dec Apr Aug Jan M ay Sep Jan M ay Sep
2005 2006 2007 2 0 0S o 8 T o ta l, s h o rt-te rm T o ta l, lo n g -te rm
u rc e : R e u te rs E co W i n
S o u rc e : R e u te rs E c o W i n
=
=
=
=
3
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis February 19, 2009

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