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Overview
Lufthansa is in the pole position to be the structural winner from industry consolidation
Strong balance sheet and cash generation despite accelerated investments in modern fleet and best in class products
Page 3
Consolidation and cost pressure are driving industry rationality Capacity growth is on low levels, fuel costs remain high
Competition is driven by three network carriers and two main LCCs Oil price remains on high level, especially in EUR terms
160
140
120
10%
100
+
80 60
=
Oil price in USD Oil price in EUR
5%
40
0%
20
0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009 2011
2013
Sources: Airlines' logos: www.wikipedia.org ASK based on flight plan data (FLASH), for 2013 summer schedule used as proxy
Page 4
Business models are converging Legacy carriers reduce costs and low cost carriers increase prices
Legacy carriers focus on margin improvement. LCCs with moderate growth and more yield focus
(Communicated outlooks)
-1.9% in 2013
+1.5% in 2013
+1.0% in 2013
Source: Companies' presentations *Fleet size will remain stable at Lufthansa Passenger Airlines ASK growth only via fleet rollover and higher productivity.
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Positive effect of capacity discipline is visible in operational figures Higher seat load factor and yield increases
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
FY 12
Q1 13
+1.3 pts.
+1.0 pts.
+1.3pts.
+1.4 pts.
+1.2 pts.
+1.9pts
Yield
(increase vs. 2011)
+3.7%
+3.8%
+4.5%
+3.0%
+3.7%
+0.9%
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Lufthansa will continue its restrictive capacity path in 2013 Capacity forecast and current business development
Capacity outlook for full year 2013 Passenger Airline Group [ASK]
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Aircraft orders are mainly for replacements not growth Fleet rollover is being accelerated and new products are introduced
Aircraft deliveries 2013-2025
Airbus 380 Boeing 747-8i Boeing 777 (of which 5 freighters) Airbus 330 Airbus 320 family Embraer 195 Bombardier C Series Total
Total
4 15 11 3 165 4 30 232
orders in place
orders outstanding
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Financial strength puts LH in pole position for future developments Cash flow generation is strong and financial profile is conservative
1. Lufthansa is profitable and produces strong cash flows 2. Solid financial profile provides competitive edge in financing conditions 3. Conservative fleet structure allows flexible fleet and capacity management
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
1.7 bn EUR
5.2 bn EUR
high liquidity
in bn EUR
>70% of fleet is financially unburdened (not used as security for financing deals)
Page 9
Non-airline segments are key for the solid financial profile Diversified portfolio provides LH Group with stable baseline profits
Revenue Operating result Range of op. margin
Airlines
23.6 bn +4.8%
Logistics (Cargo)
2.7 bn
Service Companies
4.0 bn 318 m +8.8%
MRO
+6.9% 2.5 bn +3.9% 97 m +3.1% +6.2%
Catering
IT Services
0.6 bn
21 m +1.8%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
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The profit trend at Lufthansa Group must be turned around Passenger business in focus
Lufthansa Group Operating result and adj. op margin
1,280
Largest Segment: Passenger Airline Group Operating result and adj. op margin
5.8%
2.1%
258 1.6%
130
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Pas. Airl. Group Operating result Pas. Airl. Group Adj. op. margin
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SCORE transforms Lufthansa into a strong and more profitable Group Comprehensive restructuring and SCORE measures
Unprofitable Lufthansa Italia shut down in Oct 2011 Highly loss making British Midland sold Exit from Jade Cargo Austrian Airlines' operations transferred into ca. -25% lower cost subsidiary Tyrolean Airways as of July 2012 Program to rationalize 1,110 admin functions (Finance, HR, Procurement) launched in Oct 2012 Restructuring of loss-making point-to-point traffic. Transfer to existing low cost platform from Jan 2013 Process optimization and reduction of staff costs at LH Passenger Airlines
SHAPE!
2.3 bn EUR
SCORE is to improve the Group operating profit to 2.3 bn EUR by 2015 Current SCORE pipeline of gross contributions before cost headwinds
further headwinds to be compensated by additional measures
in m EUR
744
768
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Operating segments are on track to improve results Key figures for Q1 2013
74.1%
9.0%
9.4%
6.5%
1.0%
Q1 2013
in m
Logistics 599
-9.5%
MRO 994
-3.1%
Catering 569
+0.2%
IT Services 150
+2.7%
Revenue
vs. PY
Operating result
vs. PY
-363
+15.0%
27
+35.0%
81
+24.6%
3
+250%
3
-25.0%
-110
-533%
EUR -95m year on year (of which -64m restructuring costs, -31m from exchange rate gains/losses)
in m
SWISS
Austrian Airlines
Total revenue
vs. PY
3,672
+0.7%
987
+2.1%
426
-3.4%
Operating result
vs. PY
-292
+20.9%
-16
-433.3%
-56
+16.4%
Previous years figures adjusted due to changes in pension accounting (IAS 19 new).
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Group Outlook unchanged: operating profit higher than last year's Outlook for the Group for FY 2013
Outlook 2013
Revenue above previous year Operating profit 2013 higher than reported operating profit for 2012 SCORE activities should make a substantial gross contribution to earnings in 2013 Operating result will be significantly impacted by SCORE restructuring costs and project costs SCORE restructuring costs similar to previous year In 2013, the larger part of the operating result for the year will be generated by the airlines, i.e. the Passenger Airline Group and Lufthansa Cargo
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>524
Summary
Lufthansa is in the pole position to be the structural winner from industry consolidation
Strong balance sheet and cash generation despite accelerated investments in modern fleet and best in class products
Page 16
Simone Menne, Member of the Executive Board and CFO Frankfurt/Main, May 14, 2013
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All segments expect to improve or maintain their profits in FY 2013 Outlook for business segments
Logistics
MRO
Catering
IT Services
operating profit in the three-digit million euro range. An increase on the previous years result is anticipated.
SWISS
Austrian Airlines
Outlook
higher revenue and improvement in the operating result in spite of volatile external cost factors. Absolute level will depend to a great extent on fuel costs and exchange rates operating result roughly on a par with last year. In addition to fuel prices, an important factor affecting business performance remains the Swiss franc. consolidating the successfully initiated turnaround and thereby achieving an operating profit.
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FY 2012 30,135
24,793
FY 2011 28,734
23,779
vs. PY +4.9%
+4.3%
Group Revenue
of which traffic revenue
2,356 713 99
29.2% 1,953
28.6% 2,328
+0.6pts. -16.1%
Market Capitalization
6,550
4,208
+55.6%
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75.8%
8.8%
8.1%
6.4%
0.9%
in m EUR
Logistics 2,688
-8,7%
MRO 4,013
-2.0%
Catering 2,503
+8.9%
IT Services 609
+1.7%
Revenue
vs. PY
Op. result
vs. PY
258
-26.1%
104
-58.2%
318
+23.7%
97
+14.1%
21
+10.5%
-274
-97.1%
EBITDA
vs. PY
1,851
+11.0%
196
-40.2%
491
+30.2%
214
+45.6%
76
31.0%
507
+894.1%
in m EUR
Lufthansa P. Airlines
SWISS
Austrian Airlines
Revenue
vs. PY
17,261
+5.4%
4,220
+7.1%
2,158
+5.4%
Op. result
vs. PY
-45
-
191
-26.3%
65
-
EBITDA
vs. PY
1,113
-0.7%
507
+0.8%
228
+113.1%
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FY 2012: Adj. operating margin per airline and business segment FY2012 vs. FY2011
10,0%
9,1%
8,6% 6,9%
8,0% 6,6% 6,0% 4,7% 4,0% 3,8% 2,1% 1,6% 4,2% 4,0% 3,6% 3,9% 3,7%
3,4% 2,3%
2,0%
1,4% 0,3%
0,0%
-2,0% -2,7% -4,0% Lufthansa Passenger Airlines 2012 SWISS Austrian Airlines Passenger Airline Group Logistics MRO IT Services Catering LH Group
2011
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Q1 2013 6,628
5,337
Q1 2012 6,619
5,349
vs. PY +0.1%
-0.2%
Total revenue
of which traffic revenue
Operating result Adjusted operating margin* EBITDA Net profit/loss for the period
976 463
833 540
+17.2% -14.3%
Market capitalization
7,010
6,550
+7.0%
* incl. income from the write-back of provisions. Previous years figures adjusted due to changes in pension accounting (IAS 19 new).
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As expected, IAS 19 resulted in a clear shift on the balance sheet Implementation of IAS 19
Balance sheet as of 31.12.2012 (prior to new accounting)
assets equity and liabilities
equity ratio
equity ratio
29.2%
15.4%
5.9 18.4
pension provisions
0.6
0.7
19.2
current assets
10.6
In EUR bn
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Balance sheet targets adjusted with regards to new IFRS rules Financial targets
New Target
Old Target
Current Status IFRS changes (especially pensions) have impaired equity sustainably but do not change underlying economic situation. Equity ratio target adjusted accordingly.
30%
15%
Gearing Gearing
no n.a. target
40-60%
New IAS19 pension accounting leads to significant volatility of equity. Gearing loses its steering function. Measure of adjusted operating cash flow to net debt incl. pension provisions. New target is to manage the Group's borrowing capacity. Closely related to rating agency thresholds. Minimum liquidity provides security buffer for any adverse scenario. Target is unchanged
34%
2.3 bn EUR
5.2 bn EUR
Page 25
SCORE transforms the Group in all areas All operating entities are contributing through own projects
Examplatory projects per airline / segment Company LHP Project New Germanwings Premium Economy Extension of "Two-Product Fleet" SHAPE! LX Calvin New Concept for Geneva Manumea Technical Service Set Up Fuel Saving Measures OS LSG LHT LCAG New Contract Airport Vienna New Catering Concept Restructuring Germany New Operating Model Air New Zealand NETwork SixToOne Product Push Revenue Management Optimization > 2,500 ideas generated within 1 year Number of projects per Group segment
Passenger Airline Group
Logistics
MRO
Catering
IT Services
526
302
225
1,292
59
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Examplatory SCORE project: New Germanwings Non-hub traffic merged into one profitable carrier with only two aircraft types
2009
# of brands # of aircraft types
2012
2015
5
(Lufthansa, Germanwings, Eurowings, Cityline, Contact Air)
3
(Lufthansa, Germanwings, Eurowings)
1
(Germanwings)
8
(B737-300,-500,CRJ-200,-700,-900,ATR72-500,ATR42500,F100)
5
(A320,A319,B737-300,B737-500,CRJ-900)
2
(A320 Family, CRJ-900)
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Fuel cost for 2013 now expected at EUR 7.0 bn Fuel forecast and sensitivities
150
140
LH price 2013
130
USD/barrel
120
Market price
7.8bn (+20% oil price) 7.4bn (+10% oil price) 7.0bn (base case) 6.5bn (-10% oil price) 6.2bn (-20% oil price) USD 103/barrel as of 30.4.2013
110
100
90
80
USD/barrel
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FY2013 FY2014
76% 38%
Lufthansa's hedging strategy is designed to reduce volatility Rolling approach with 24 months lead time before actual consumption Hedging level is increased month-by-month until 85% is hedged Mainly options not fixed contracts to still benefit from falling oil prices
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High flexibility is the key in a volatile industry Example: LH Cargo flexibly adapts to all market phases
%
50 40
2008 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
30 20 10
47 Operating profit in m EUR (per quarter) 109 4 -72 -62 -66 full fleet reactivated 3rd global price increase of 20% 29 35
86
80
64
69
76 40 19 28 19 38 27
-40
2nd global price increase of 10% 1st global price increases of 20% 2 more aircraft grounded short-time work intensified (-25% working hours) first 2 aircraft grounded introduction of short-time work (-20% working hours) start of Earnings Savings Program capacity -10% plus cost cuts
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Deutsche Lufthansa AG Investor Relations / FRA IR Lufthansa Aviation Center Airportring D-60546 Frankfurt Phone: +49 (0) 69 696 28010 Fax: +49 (0) 69 696 90990 E-mail: investor.relations@dlh.de
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