Paper III: DECISION PERSPECTIVE OF MANAGEMENT (DPM) Credit: 4 Course Objective: Understand the complexity of today's managerial decision.

Know the meaning and need of quantitative approach to managerial decision. Have a brief idea of various statistical methods. Understand the different approaches to probability. Appreciate why sampling is so common in managerial situations, Various sampling methods with their strengths and weaknesses, introduce experimental design, sampling procedure. Understand the meaning of statistical hypothesis, appreciate the importance of the significance level, learn the steps involved in conducting a test of hypothesis. The complexities involved in decision making especially in the corporate world, require decision makers to formulate structures of problems on which decisions are required. To overcome these issues in a competitive environment and explaining the decision process in an effective manner, this course gives an insight to the students several approaches like decision tree, linear programming, transportation problems, game theory, queuing theory and networking. After working on this course the students will be in a position to factor in quantitative modeling in business problems. Measure of Central Tendency: Introduction, Meaning of quantitative technique, statistical research , Measures of central tendency (Averages), Arithmetic mean, Weighted Mean, Median, Mode Measure of Dispersion: Range, Quartile Deviation, Mean Deviation, Standard Deviation, Coefficient of Variation Probability: Basic concepts, Bayesian, Probability Distribution- Binomial, Poisson, Normal Distribution Sampling: Introduction, why sampling, sampling methods, Sampling distribution, standard error, type I and II error, Estimation, properties of good estimator, Type of estimation, Confidence limit Hypothesis: Hypothesis testing, Z-test, t-test, Chi square test, F-test, ANOVA Forecasting: Forecasting, Simple Correlation, Regression Analysis, Time Series Analysis Decision Theories: Elements in Decision Making, Pay-off Table, EMV, EVPI Decision Trees Linear programming: Formulation, Graphic method, Simplex method, Applications Transportation Model: Initial solution-NWCM, LCM, VAM Test for optimality, MODI method Assignment Problem: Hungarian Method, Travelling Salesman problem. Game theory: Solution of pure strategy games, Principle of Dominance, Solution of mixed strategy problems, Arithmetical method, Graphic Method. Books Recommended: 1. Business Statistics - J K Sharma (Text) 2. Statistics for Management - Levin / Rubin 3. Fundamentals of statistics - Elhance 4. Statistical Methods - S.P.Gupta 5. Fundamentals of Statistics - S.C.Gupta 6. Operation Research - V.K.Kapoor (Text) 7. Operation Research - S.D.Sharma