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Structure

11.1 Introduction

Objectives

Introduction to Simulation

11.2.1 11.2.2 Advantages of Computer Simulation Limitations of Computer Simulation

11.3.1 11.3.2 11.3.3 Design of Simulation Model Simulation Languages Simulation Validation

11.4 Case Study : Process Simulation and Modeling 11.5 Simulation Based Optimization Techniques 11.6 Summary 11.7 Key Words 11.8 Answers to SAQs

11.1 INTRODUCTION

Effective evaluations of many real-world situations are too complex. Alternative methods must be used to evaluate the performance of such systems. Simulation is a modeling and analysis tool widely used for the purpose of designing, planning, and control of manufacturing systems. Simulation in general is to pretend that one deals with a real thing while really working with an imitation. In operations research, the imitation is a computer model of the simulated reality. The task of executing simulations provides insight and a deep understanding of physical processes that are being modeled. Simulation is generally referred to as computer simulation, which simulates the operation of a manufacturing system. A computer simulation or a computer model is a computer program which attempts to simulate an abstract model of a particular system. Computer simulation was developed hand-in-hand with the rapid growth of the computer, following its first large-scale deployment during the Manhattan Project in World War II to model the process of nuclear detonation. Computer simulation is often used an adjunct to, or substitution for, modeling systems for which simple closed form analytic solutions are not possible. There are many different types of computer simulation; the common feature they all share is the attempt to generate a sample of representative scenarios for a model in which a complete enumeration of all possible states of the model would be prohibitive or impossible. Computer simulations have become a useful part of modeling many natural systems in physics, chemistry and biology, human systems in economics and social science and in the process of new technology in the field of engineering, to gain insight into the operation of those systems. Traditionally, the formal modeling of systems has been via a mathematical model, which attempts to find analytical solutions to problems which enables the prediction of the behaviour of the system from a set of parameters and initial conditions. Computer simulations build on, and are a useful adjunct to purely mathematical models in science and technology and entertainment. With a computer simulation model, a manager or system analyst is able to observe the behaviour of a process without the necessity of experimenting with the actual system. In order to evaluate the systems performance given various disturbances, or to identify the

bottlenecks, they may try out different manufacturing runs, new operational conditions, new equipment layouts or different cycle times. A simple example of a simulation involves the tossing of a ball into the air. The ball can be said to simulate a missile, for instance. That is, by experimenting with throwing balls starting at different initial heights and initial velocity vectors, it can be said that we are simulating the trajectory of a missile. This kind of simulation is known as analog simulation since it involves a physical model of a ball. A flight simulator on a PC is a computer model of some aspects of the flight: it shows on the screen the controls and what the pilot (the youngster who operates it) is supposed to see from the cockpit (his armchair).

Objectives

After studying this unit, you should be able to explain what is meant by the term simulation, list some of the reasons for simulations popularity as a tool for decision making, outline the advantages and limitations of simulation, describe the alternative that a manager would reject before choosing simulation as a decision-making tool, and solve typical problems that require the use of simulation.

The technique of computer simulation used as an aid to decision-making has many desirable features and, unfortunately, some disadvantages when compared to other approaches.

(i) Flexibility To fly a simulator is safer and cheaper than the real airplane. For precisely this reason, models are used in industry commerce and military: it is very costly, dangerous and often impossible to make experiments with real systems. Provided that models are adequate descriptions of reality (they are valid), experimenting with them can save money, suffering and even time. Moreover, additional alternatives can be evaluated by changing the input data for the same model. (ii) Study of Transient Behaviour Systems that change with time, such as a gas station where cars come and go (called dynamic systems) and involve randomness is a good example. Nobody can guess at exactly which time the next car should arrive at the station, are good candidates for simulation. Modeling complex dynamic systems theoretically need too many simplifications and the emerging models may not be therefore valid. Simulation does not require that many simplifying assumptions, making it the only tool even in absence of randomness. Simulation can provide much better control over experimental conditions that would be possible when experimenting with physical models. (iii) Communication Whether a particular experiment is fruitful can best be spotted by watching a dynamic graphics display, and thus can act as a means of communication. Animation of the process under investigation results in benefits for the model builder, beneficial communication between the model builder and model user, and

Simulation Modeling

benefits in presentation to users and management. The model user can be actively involved with a simulation model throughout the model development cycle because of the increased ease of communication that animation allows. This leads to the increase in benefits of users and significant improvement in the model. (iv) (v) (vi) Possibility to study systems that are nonexistent. Compression or expansion of time. Compare to other decision support techniques.

Introduction to Simulation

(vii) Observation of diverse performance indicators. (viii) Sensitivity analysis. (ix) Dynamic visualizations, education.

(i) Large-scale-manufacturing systems tend to be very complex. Writing computer programs to model such systems can be a long and expensive task. Even given the best circumstances, however, simulation projects are always time consuming frequently needing many months before useful results are realized. Many complex simulation models require extensive computer time that can be a costly exercise. This limits the designers freedom to generate more alternative designs. Simulation model must be provided with the pseudo-data that detail the conceived system in order to imitate the real system. The data regarding the processing and demand information, and operation rules are not readily available in the design phase. In some cases where problem is not clearly defined, a simulation project always contain a risk factor which neither the designer nor the user of the model can fully anticipate in the early stage of design project.

(ii)

(iii)

(iv)

SAQ 1

(a) (b) Define simulation and state its advantage over mathematical model Discuss the advantages and limitations of computer simulation.

All simulation projects follow the following steps : (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) (vi) Define the problem Data collection Problem analysis Simulation model specification Model programming Model validation

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(viii) Evaluation and interpretation of simulation results (ix) Report generation and plans for implementation of the results.

Steps involved in constructing and using a simulation model can be exemplified by the studying the missile in flight. Figure 11.1 incorporates different types of model and their resemblance to real system. From Figure 11.1, it can be interpreted that physical model is most exact and digital model is most abstract. The physical model is the system under study the missile in flight. That is, one seeks to study a missile in flight by creating a simulation of it. One way of simulating this system is to create a smaller (or scaled) version of the system. A bullet is actually a miniature missile therefore, an analyst can study missiles in flight by shooting bullets instead. Bullets are, after all, much cheaper than missiles when it comes to experimentation.

Model Design Physical Model Scaled Model Analog Model Patch Model Digital Model

Model execution

Missile in Flight

Bullet in Flight

Ball in Flight

Analog Circuit

Most Exact

Most Abstract

Figure 11.1 : Different types of Simulation, and Example of each Type in the Missile Domain

One can then answer questions about missile simulation by following this general procedure : (i) Obtain the question to be answered or the problem to be solved in a given domain such as ballistics. For instance, we can ask How far does the missile go horizontally when the gun turret is placed 30m above the ground and aimed at a 40 degree elevation? Translate the question and problem into the simulation model. We then translate the above problem into a small-scale model using a bullet fired from a rifle. This involves correctly scaling down all aspects of the problem. This is not trivial, and many physical phenomena are not invariant to the scaling operation. Fire the rifle. Measure the horizontal distance of the bullet after it has hit the target. Scale the answer back to the missile domain. Provide the answer to the original question.

(ii)

These six steps reflect the general method of simulation as applied to problems of prediction. The analog model takes some liberties with respect to modeling the physical system. Scale invariance is one such liberty. For missiles, any object can really be used to simulate a missile by simply throwing that object. Therefore, a tennis ball might serve as a reasonable model. Already we can see the need for picking a model that serves to correctly validate the real system behaviour. Balls might not be so good in the end, since balls have greater drag than missiles. Also, there are many other factors such as the amount of propellant to use that will help us to faithfully model the original system.

One should consider the characteristic of the system in question and the nature of the problems to be tackled while choosing a modeling approach. In general the simulation model used in the area of Manufacturing Systems Engineering (MSE) can be classified as :

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Static and Dynamic Simulation Models Continuous and Discrete Simulation Model Stochastic and Deterministic Simulation Model Social Simulation Web based Simulation Parallel and Distributed Simulation

Introduction to Simulation

Static and Dynamic Simulation Models There are two types of simulation modeling: static and dynamic. Static models are systems of equations that are solved once. It is a representation of a system at a particular point in time. This type of model is defined as having structure without activity, i.e. where simulation process will not evolve over time. Example of this type is Monte Carlo simulation models and many spreadsheet-based analytical models. Dynamic models add a time dimension. Mathematical computations tied to processes are performed at time intervals, allowing the modeler to study a system as it evolves over time. Since most business processes have a time dimension so more stress is given to dynamic simulation. Continuous and Discrete Simulation Model In continuous models, time passes linearly and the processes vary directly with time. The inputs of the continuous system may vary continuously by infinitely small time intervals and the system responds to these inputs with continuous output. It is based on abstraction, decomposition and aggregation, and involves one or more differential and/or algebraic equations, which describe the relationships existing within the system. In this system, integration of differential equations has to be performed numerically on a digital computer. Continuous simulations are of interest to economists, in modeling the behavior of economic systems, and planners in studying the behavior of the system at the aggregate level over the long time horizon. Examples of continuous-system situations include pollution from a factory and the flow of fluid in a pipe. Discrete-event models deal with events and specific time intervals. Examples of discrete events include computer-performance evaluation and inventory dispatch systems. In discrete-event models, the occurrence of an event drives the model, whereas in continuous models, the passing of time drives the model. The service-center example below is a dynamic, discrete-event model-over time, customers flow into the process, wait in line, are served, and then leave. The event that drives the model is the arrival of a customer. Discrete System Terminology State A variable characterizing an attribute in the system such as level of stock in inventory or number of jobs waiting for processing. Event An occurrence at a point in time, which may change the state of the system, such as arrival of a customer or start of work on a job. Entity An object that passes through the system, such as cars in an intersection or orders in a factory. Often an event (e.g., arrival) is associated with an entity (e.g., customer). Queue A queue is not only a physical queue of people, it can also be a task list, a buffer of finished goods waiting for transportation or any place where entities are waiting for something to happen for any reason.

Creating Creating is causing an arrival of a new entity to the system at some point in time. Scheduling Scheduling is the act of assigning a new future event to an existing entity. Random Variable A random variable is a quantity that is uncertain, such as inter-arrival time between two incoming flights or number of defective parts in a shipment. Random Variate A random variate is an artificially generated random variable. Distribution A distribution is the mathematical law, which governs the probabilistic features of a random variable. A Simple Example of Discrete Simulation Model Building a simulation gas station with a single pump served by a single service maN. Assume that arrival of cars as well their service times are random. At first identify the following : States Number of cars waiting for service and number of cars served at any moment. Events Arrival of cars, start of service, end of service. Entities These are the cars. Queue The queue of cars in front of the pump, waiting for service. Random Realizations Inter-arrival times, service times. Distributions We shall assume exponential distributions for both the inter-arrival time and service time. Next, specify what to do at each event. The above example would look like this : At event of entity arrival : Create next arrival. If the server is free, send entity for start of service. Otherwise it joins the queue. At event of service start : Server becomes occupied. Schedule end of service for this entity. At event of service end : Server becomes free. If any entities waiting in queue : remove first entity from the queue; send it for start of service. Some initiation is still required, for example, the creation of the first arrival. Lastly, the above is translated into code. This is easy with an appropriate library, which has subroutines for creation, scheduling, proper timing of events, queue manipulations, random variate generation and statistics collection. A Sample Model

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Let us consider a service-center scenario such as you might find in a bank, customer-support help line, or car repair shop. The managers goal is to reduce

costs by minimizing the number of agents (bank tellers, telephone operators, or car mechanics) while keeping customer wait time as brief as possible. To achieve this goal, one need several pieces of information from our model : how many agents one should have, how many customers will have to wait in line, and how long the customers will have to wait. Modeling a process consists of using a tools modeling framework to construct a diagram of the system through which the inputs will flow. In the service-center scenario, the inputs are the number of customers arriving at the service center, the frequency with which they arrive, the number of agents, and the time it takes an agent to serve a customer. The customer-arrival rate is entered into the start block, and the number of agents and their service time are added to the agent block. As the model runs, the customers pass through the blocks at the specified service rate. When the simulation is completed, the modeler can determine how many customers entered the system, how long they were in the system particularly, how long they waited in line and whether any customers remain to be served. The modeler then compares this with the business' goals and constraints, and iteratively changes the inputs for example, increases the number of agents and reruns the model until the results are satisfactory. Because simulation modeling forces the modeler to analyze the dynamics of a process, it also can lead to a greater understanding of that process. The insights gained will help the modeler redesign the process to better meet business goals. Stochastic and Deterministic Simulation Model Stochastic simulations generally have a probabilistic component, though not usually unconditioned probabilities (e.g. sampling from the normal distribution, Poisson distribution or even catastrophe spaces where the probability density changes with different paths or other spaces, for that matter). Stochastic simulations generally must be performed a number of times until there is an adequate sample of results to evaluate, since any single run of a simulation will have one of many possible outcomes. This sort of simulation is often used as a component in demographic or ecological simulations where many of the components are modeled using statistical criteria. They are especially useful where much of the data upon which they are based has been amenable to statistical analysis, or where the local behaviour of many systems is only understood in statistical terms, or where it is convenient to model many of the components using statistical or probabilistic models, which is desirable much of the time, even if it is not in theory necessary. It is, for example, much easier to model rainfall or warfare with a simple probabilistic model (sampling from an empirical distribution), rather than going to the trouble of an elaborate model which is itself extremely complex, simply because we want to estimate the impact of floods or the loss of male population due to warfare as an independent context for our central problem. Deterministic simulations are those where one solution set exists for a given input situation. In this, a system is simulated under well-determined conditions. Its primary use is extrapolate and evaluate outcomes given hypothetical inputs, or to examine the interaction of a number of interdependent deterministic models. Social Simulation Social scientists have always constructed models of social phenomena. Simulation is an important method for modeling social and economic processes. In particular, it provides a middle way between the richness of discursive theorizing and rigorous but restrictive mathematical models. There are different types of computer simulation and their application to social scientific problems. Faster hardware and improved software have made building complex simulations easier. Computer simulation methods can be effective for the development of theories as well as for prediction. For example, macro-economic models have been

Introduction to Simulation

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used to simulate future changes in the economy; and simulations have been used in psychology to study cognitive mechanisms. The field of social simulation seems to be following an interesting line of inquiry. As a general approach in the field, a world is specified with much computational detail. Then the world is simulated (using computers) to reveal some of the non-trivial implications (or emergent properties) of the world. When these non trivial implications are made known (fed back) in world, apparently it constitutes some added values. Artificial Life is an interdisciplinary study enterprise aimed at understanding life-as-it-is and life-as-it-could-be, and at synthesizing life-like phenomena in chemical, electronic, software, and other artificial media. Artificial Life redefines the concepts of artificial and natural, blurring the borders between traditional disciplines and providing new media and new insights into the origin and principles of life. Simulation allows the social scientist to experiment with artificial societies and explore the implications of theories in ways not otherwise possible. Web-based Simulation Web-based simulation is quickly emerging as an area of significant interest for both simulation researchers and simulation practitioners. This interest in webbased simulation is a natural outgrowth of the proliferation of the World-Wide Web and its attendant technologies, e.g. HTML, HTTP, CGI, etc. Also the surging popularity of, and reliance upon, computer simulation as a problem solving and decision support systems tools. The appearance of the network-friendly programming language, Java, and of distributed object technologies like the Common Object Request Broker Architecture (CORBA) and the Object Linking and Embedding / Component Object Model (OLE/COM) have had particularly acute effects on the state of simulation practice. Currently, the researchers in the field of web-based simulation are interested in dealing with topics such as methodologies for web-based model development, collaborative model development over the Internet, Java-based modeling and simulation, distributed modeling and simulation using web technologies, and new applications. Parallel and Distributed Simulation The increasing size of the systems and designs requires more efficient simulation strategies to accelerate the simulation process. Parallel and distributed simulation approaches seem to be a promising approach in this direction. Current topics under extensive research are : Synchronization, scheduling, memory management, randomized and reactive/adaptive algorithms, partitioning and load balancing.

There are essentially three types of languages one can use : general-purpose languages, simulation specific languages, and general languages designed for simulation. In the first class are languages like FORTAN, C, C++,Pascal, and so on. These are languages used for many applications. There are a number of advantages to implementing simulations in general languages : they tend to be very fast, there are few limitations on what can be done, programmers are easily found, and simulations can be done on a number of different computers (due to standardization of language). The disadvantage of this approach is cost. Simulations based on general languages take knowledge of simulation implementation and are generally very large, intricate

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programs. The time needed to design, code, and verify such a system may be overwhelming. The second class of languages is simulation specific, and includes GPSS, SIMAN, and SLAM. These languages take most of the work out of creating a simulation. All these systems can do all the queue manipulation needed in a single line. The main disadvantages of these languages are in their limited domain. It is difficult, but not impossible, to create a financial portfolio planner in SIMAN. It is just not designed for it. On the other hand, another specialized simulation language can easily handle it within a 123 spreadsheet. It is also difficult to use other programs in the simulation. Imagine trying to put in a network optimizer in a transportation simulator if you are required to use SIMAN. Although there is the ability to link in your own FORTRAN programs, the methods are cumbersome and inefficient. The final class includes such languages as SIMSCRIPT. SIMSCRIPT is a general language in the sense that things like network optimization and linear programming can be written in the language. It is also a simulation language, for it has commands to generate entities and manipulate queues. In many ways, it is the best of both worlds, and its lack of popularity is surprising. In most cases, these days simulation is done by an appropriate special system, although there are still a substantial number of holdovers from the general language school. If a reasonable library of routines has been built up, then a general language can have most of the advantages of the specialized language. On the other hand, we have yet to see a set of libraries that make FORTRAN as easy as SIMAN. Simulation Software There are computer package for Simulation. Some examples are : ACSL, APROS, ARTIFEX, Arena, AutoMod, C++ SIM, CSIM, CallSim, FluidFlow, GPSS, Gepasi, JavSim, MJX, MedModel, Mesquite, Multiverse, NETWORK, OPNET Modeler, POSES++, Simulat8, Powersim, QUEST, REAL, SHIFT, SIMPLE++, SIMSCRIPT, SLAM, SMPL, SimBank, SimPlusPlus, TIERRA, Witness, SIMNON, VISSIM, and Javasim. Example 11.1 A Simulation Model of the Machining Operation Written in GPSS

GENERATE QUEUE SEIZE DEPART ADVANCE RELEASE 350,000 BUFFER MACHINE BUFFER 400,000 MACHINE ; create next part ; part waits in queue ; attempt to grab the m/c ; engage m/c and end of waiting ; the operation takes certain time ; operation done, free m/c ; collect queue data ; part leaves System

Introduction to Simulation

Use of a model or simulation is a surrogate for experimentation with an actual system (existing or proposed), where experimentation with that system could be disruptive, not cost effective, or infeasible. If the model or simulation is unable to provide valid representations of the actual system, any conclusions derived from the model or simulation are likely to be erroneous and may result in poor decisions being made. Validation can be performed for all models and simulations, regardless of whether the corresponding real-world system exists in some form or will be built in the future. Validation should always be focused on the intended use.

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Validation Validation is the process of determining the degree to which a model or simulation is an accurate representation of the real world from the perspective of the intended uses of the model or simulation The following are some general perspectives on validation : (i) Conceptually, if a simulation is valid, then it can be used to make decisions about the system similar to those that would be made if it were feasible and cost effective to experiment with the system itself. The ease or difficulty of the validation process depends on the complexity of the system being modeled and on whether a version of the system currently exists A simulation of a complex system can only approximate the actual system, no matter how much time and money are spent on simulation construction. There is no such thing as absolute simulation validity, nor is it even desired. Indeed, a model or simulation is supposed to be an abstraction and simplification of reality. However, the most valid simulation is not necessarily the most cost effective. For example, increasing the validity of a simulation beyond a certain level might be quite expensive, since extensive data collection may be required, but might not lead to significantly better insight or decisions. A simulation should always be developed for a particular set of objectives. Indeed, a simulation that is valid for one set of objectives may not be for another set of objectives. The measures and acceptability criteria (e.g., measures of performance [MOPs]) used to validate a simulation should include those that the decision-maker will actually use for evaluating system configurations. Validation of a stand-alone simulation is a process that should be conducted in coordination with the development or modification effort. It is not something to be attempted after the simulation has already been developed (or modified) and then only if there is time and money remaining.

(ii)

(iii)

(iv)

(v)

(vi)

(vii) A federation of models still has to be validated even if the models (federates) that compose it are believed to be valid. A model or simulation, its data, and its results have credibility if the decision-maker and other key project personnel accept them as correct. Note that a credible simulation is not necessarily valid, and vice-versa. The following factors help establish credibility for a model or simulation : Decision-makers Understanding and Agreement with the Simulations Assumptions Demonstration that the simulation has been validated and verified. Decision-makers ownership of and involvement with the project. Reputation of the simulation developers.

Comment [RPG1]:

A model or simulation that is both valid and credible is more likely to be formally accredited for use in a particular application.

SAQ 2

(a) (b)

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What are the steps involved in construction of simulation model? What is the difference between static and dynamic simulation models? What is the difference between continuous and discrete simulation models?

(c)

Discuss in brief about the various terminology used in discrete system. What is the difference between deterministic and stochastic simulation models? Discuss in brief about the three classes of simulation languages.

Introduction to Simulation

In the future, one of the keys to optimizing new product designs and manufacturing processes will be the ability to model and simulate production methods using advanced computer hardware and software. Today, the development of many products, including those that require castings, forgings and injection-molded parts, for example, typically require lengthy and expensive prototyping and experimentation to refine details of the product design, tooling, and manufacturing parameters. The use of computerized process modeling and simulation will eliminate much of this prototyping and dramatically reduce product development times and costs. The traditional approach of using experimentation and prototyping to refine production processes is indicative of the fact that manufacturing practices have historically been based as much on art as on sound scientific understanding of the processes involved. This is changing rapidly as a result of research to achieve better theoretical understanding and predictability of specific processes and materials and their effect on product performance and costs. Improved theoretical frameworks are advancing progress on a wide range of manufacturing applications, processes and materials, including stamping and forming, machining, powder compaction processes and even assembly of parts. Process modeling and simulation is being pursued by a number of organizations, including the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). For example, as part of a cooperative agreement with Ford, Chrysler and General Motors, NIST is conducting research into the use of polymer composites for structural applications in automobiles. As part of the project, NIST has developed a finite element simulation of the mold filling process used to manufacture high strength body components. In a similar manner, NIST is developing process models and simulations for robotic manufacturing operations and production of powder metal particles. Much of the ability to apply new theoretical understanding depends on the performance and cost of advanced computing technologies. Process modeling and simulation draws heavily on computationally intensive techniques in such areas as heat transfer and solidification kinetics, coupled fluid flow, finite difference approximations, turbulent viscosity calculations, fracture mechanics, stress analyses, and three-dimensional graphics and visualization techniques. Advanced computing technology directly affects the speed and level of detail that can be incorporated into the models, and therefore the realism and benefits that can be obtained.

Deterministic Search Techniques A common characteristic of deterministic search techniques is that they are basically borrowed from deterministic optimization techniques. The deterministic

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objective function value required in the technique is now replaced with an estimate obtained from simulation. By having a reasonably accurate estimate, one hopes that the technique will perform well. Deterministic search techniques include heuristic search, complete enumeration, and random search techniques. Heuristic Search Technique The heuristic search technique is probably most commonly used in optimizing response surfaces. It is also the least sophisticated scheme mathematically, and it can be thought of as an intuitive and experimental approach. The analyst determines the starting point and stopping rule based on previous experience with the system. After setting the input parameters (factors) to levels that appear reasonable, the analyst makes a simulation run with the factors set at those levels and computes the value of the response function. If it appears to be a maximum (minimum) to the analyst, the experiment is stopped. Otherwise the analyst changes parameter settings and makes another run. This process continues until the analyst believes that the output has been optimized. Suffice it to say that, if the analyst is not intimately familiar with the process being simulated, this procedure can turn into a blind search and can expend an inordinate amount of time and computer resources without producing results commensurate with input. The heuristic search can be ineffective and inefficient in the hand of a novice. Complete Enumeration and Random Techniques The complete enumeration technique is not applicable to continuous cases, but in discrete space v it does yield the optimal value of the response variable. All factors (v) must assume a finite number of values for this technique to be applicable. Then, a complete factorial experiment is run. The analyst can attribute some degree of confidence to the determined optimal point when using this procedure. Although the complete enumeration technique yields the optimal point, it has a serious drawback. If the number of factors or levels per factor is large, the number of simulation runs required to find the optimal point can be exceedingly large. For example, suppose that an experiment is conducted with three factors having three, four, and five levels, respectively. Also suppose that five replications are desired to provide the proper degree of confidence. Then 300 runs of the simulator are required to find the optimal point. Hence, this technique should be used only when the number of unique treatment combinations is relatively small or a run takes little time. The random search technique resembles the complete enumeration technique except that one selects a set of inputs at random. The simulated results based on the set that yields the maximum (minimum) value of the response function is taken to be the optimal point. This procedure reduces the number of simulation runs required to yield an optimal result; however, there is no guarantee that the point found is actually the optimal point. Of course, the more points selected, the more likely the analyst is to achieve the true optimum. Note that the requirement that each factor assumes only a finite number of values is not a requirement in this scheme. Replications can be made on the treatment combinations selected, to increase the confidence in the optimal point. Which strategy is better, replicating a few points or looking at a single observation on more points, depends on the problem. Response Surface Search Response surface search attempts to fit a polynomial to performance function J(v). If the design space v is suitably small, the performance function J(v) may be approximated by a response surface, typically a first order, or perhaps quadratic order in v, possibly after transformation, e.g., log (v). The response surface method

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(RSM) requires running the simulation in a first order experimental design to determine the path of steepest descent. Simulation runs made along this path continue, until one notes no improvement in J(v). The analyst then runs a new first order experimental design around the new optimal point reached, and finds a new path of steepest descent. The process continues, until there is a lack of fit in the fitted first order surface. Then, one runs a second order design, and takes the optimum of the fittest second order surface as the estimated optimum. Although it is desirable for search procedures to be efficient over a wide range of response surfaces, no current procedure can effectively overcome non-unimodality (surfaces having more than one local maximum or minimum). An obvious way to find the global optimal would be to evaluate all the local optima. One technique that is used when non-unimodality is known to exist, is called the Las Vegas technique. This search procedure estimates the distribution of the local optima by plotting the estimated J(v) for each local search against its corresponding search number. Those local searches that produce a response greater than any previous response are then identified and a curve is fitted to the data. This curve is then used to project the estimated incremental response that will be achieved by one more search. The search continues until the value of the estimated improvement in the search is less than the cost of completing one additional search. It should be noted that a well-designed experiment requires a sufficient number of replications so that the average response can be treated as a deterministic number for search comparisons. Otherwise, since replications are expensive, it becomes necessary to effectively utilize the number of simulation runs. Although each simulation is at a different setting of the controllable variables, one can use smoothing techniques such as exponential smoothing to reduce the required number of replications. Pattern Search Techniques Pattern search techniques assume that any successful set of moves used in searching for an approximated optimum is worth repeating. These techniques start with small steps; then, if these are successful, the step size increases. Alternatively, when a sequence of steps fails to improve the objective function, this indicates that shorter steps are appropriate so we may not overlook any promising direction. These techniques start by initially selecting a set of incremental values for each factor. Starting at an initial base point, they check if any incremental changes in the first variable yield an improvement. The resulting improved setting becomes the new intermediate base point. One repeats the process for each of the inputs until one obtains a new setting where the intermediate base points act as the initial base point for the first variable. The technique then moves to the new setting. This procedure is repeated, until further changes cannot be made with the given incremental values. Then, the incremental values are decreased, and the procedure is repeated from the beginning. When the incremental values reach a pre-specified tolerance, the procedure terminates; the most recent factor settings are reported as the solution. Conjugate Direction Search The conjugate direction search requires no derivative estimation, yet it finds the optimum of an N-dimensional quadratic surface after, at most, N-iterations, where the number of iterations is equal to the dimension of the quadratic surface. The procedure redefines the n dimensions so that a single variable search can be used successively. Single variable procedures can be used whenever dimensions can be treated independently. The optimization along each dimension leads to the optimization of the entire surface. Two directions are defined to be conjugate whenever the cross-product terms are all zero. The conjugate direction technique tries to find a set of n dimensions that describes the surface such that each direction is conjugate to all others.

Introduction to Simulation

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Using the above result, the technique attempts to find two search optima and replace the nth dimension of the quadratic surface by the direction specified by the two optimal points. Successively replacing the original dimension yields a new set of n dimensions in which, if the original surface is quadratic, all directions are conjugate to each other and appropriate for n single variable searches. While this search procedure appears to be very simple, we should point out that the selection of appropriate step sizes is most critical. The step size selection is more critical for this search technique because during axis rotation the step size does not remain invariant in all dimensions. As the rotation takes place, the best step size changes, and becomes difficult to estimate. Steepest Ascent (Descent) The steepest ascent (descent) technique uses a fundamental result from calculus (that the gradient points in the direction of the maximum increase of a function), to determine how the initial settings of the parameters should be changed to yield an optimal value of the response variable. The direction of movement is made proportional to the estimated sensitivity of the performance of each variable. Although quadratic functions are sometimes used, one assumes that performance is linearly related to the change in the controllable variables for small changes. Assume that a good approximation is a linear form. The basis of the linear steepest ascent is that each controllable variable is changed in proportion to the magnitude of its slope. When each controllable variable is changed by a small amount, it is analogous to determining the gradient at a point. For a surface containing N controllable variables, this requires N points around the point of interest. When the problem is not an n-dimensional elliptical surface, the parallel-tangent points are extracted from bitangents and inflection points of occluding contours. Parallel tangent points are points on the occluding contour where the tangent is parallel to a given bitangent or the tangent at an inflection point. Tabu Search Technique An effective technique to overcome local optimality for discrete optimization is the Tabu Search technique. It explores the search space by moving from a solution to its best neighbour, even if this results in a deterioration of the performance measure value. This approach increases the likelihood of moving out of local optima. To avoid cycling, solutions that were recently examined are declared tabu (Taboo) for a certain number of iterations. Applying intensification procedures can accentuate the search in a promising region of the solution space. In contrast, diversification can be used to broaden the search to a less explored region. Much remains to be discovered about the range of problems for which the tabu search is best suited. Hooke and Jeeves Type Techniques The Hooke and Jeeves pattern search uses two kinds of moves; namely, an exploratory and a pattern move. The exploratory move is accomplished by doing a coordinate search in one pass through all the variables. This gives a new base point from which a pattern move is made. A pattern move is a jump in the pattern direction determined by subtracting the current base point from the previous base point. After the pattern move, another exploratory move is carried out at the point reached. If the estimate of J(v) is improved at the final point after the second exploratory move, it becomes the new base point. If it fails to show improvement, an exploratory move is carried out at the last base point with a smaller step in the coordinate search. The process stops when the step gets small enough. Simplex-based Techniques

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The simplex-based technique performs simulation runs first at the vertices of the initial simplex; i.e. a polyhedron in the v-space having N + 1 vertices. A

subsequent simplex (moving towards the optimum) are formed by three operations performed on the current simplex: reflection, contraction, and expansion. At each stage of the search process, the point with the highest J(v) is replaced with a new point found via reflection through the centroid of the simplex. Depending on the value of J(v) at this new point, the simplex is either expanded, contracted, or unchanged. The simplex technique starts with a set of N+1 factor settings. These N+1 points are all the same distance from the current point. Moreover, the distance between any two points of these N + 1 points is the same. Then, by comparing their response values, the technique eliminates the factor setting with the worst functional value and replaces it with a new factor setting, determined by the centroid of the N remaining factor settings and the eliminated factor setting. The resulting simplex either grows or shrinks, depending on the response value at the new factor settings. One repeats the procedure until no more improvement can be made by eliminating a point, and the resulting final simplex is small. While this technique will generally perform well for unconstrained problems, it may collapse to a point on a boundary of a feasible region, thereby causing the search to come to a premature halt. This technique is effective if the response surface is generally bowl-shaped even with some local optimal points. Probabilistic Search Techniques All probabilistic search techniques select trial points governed by a scan distribution, which is the main source of randomness. These search techniques include random search, pure adaptive techniques, simulated annealing, and genetic methods. Random Search A simple, but very popular approach is the random search, which centers a symmetric probability density function (pdf) [e.g., the normal distribution], about the current best location. The standard normal N (0, 1) is a popular choice, although the uniform distribution U [ 1, 1] is also common. A variation of the random search technique determines the maximum of the objective function by analyzing the distribution of J(v) in the bounded sub-region. In this variation, the random data are fitted to an asymptotic extreme-value distribution, and J* is estimated with a confidence statement. Unfortunately, these techniques cannot determine the location of J*, which can be as important as the J value itself. Some techniques calculate the mean value and the standard deviation of J(v) from the random data as they are collected. Assuming that J is distributed normally in the feasible region. The first trial, that yields a J-value to standard deviations within the mean value, is taken as a near-optimum solution. Pure Adaptive Search Various pure adaptive search techniques have been suggested for optimization in simulation. Essentially, these techniques move from the current solution to the next solution that is sampled uniformly from the set of all better feasible solutions. Evolutionary Techniques Nature is a robust optimizer. By analyzing natures optimization mechanism, we may find acceptable solution techniques to intractable problems. Two concepts that have most promise are simulated annealing and the genetic techniques. Simulated Annealing Simulated annealing (SA) borrows its basic ideas from statistical mechanics. A metal cools, and the electrons align themselves in an optimal pattern for the transfer of energy. In general, a slowly cooling system, left to itself, eventually finds the arrangement of atoms, which has the lowest energy. That is the behavior, which motivates the method of optimization by SA. In SA, we construct a model of a system and slowly decrease the temperature of this theoretical system, until

Introduction to Simulation

19

the system assumes a minimal energy structure. The problem is how to map our particular problem to such an optimizing scheme. SA as an optimization technique was first introduced to solve problems in discrete optimization, mainly combinatorial optimization. Subsequently, this technique has been successfully applied to solve optimization problems over the space of continuous decision variables. SA is a simulation optimization technique that allows random ascent moves in order to escape the local minima, but a price is paid in terms of a large increase in the computational time required. It can be proven that the technique will find an approximated optimum. The annealing schedule might require a long time to reach a true optimum. Genetic Techniques Genetic techniques (GT) are optimizers that use the ideas of evolution to optimize a system that is too difficult for traditional optimization techniques. Organisms are known to optimize themselves to adapt to their environment. GT differ from traditional optimization procedures in that GT work with a coding of the decision parameter set, not the parameters themselves; GT search a population of points, not a single point; GT use objective function information, not derivatives or other auxiliary knowledge; and finally, GT use probabilistic transition rules, not deterministic rules. GT are probabilistic search optimizing techniques that do not require mathematical knowledge of the response surface of the system, which they are optimizing. They borrow the paradigms of genetic evolution, specifically selection, crossover, and mutation. Selection The current points in the space are ranked in terms of their fitness by their respective response values. A probability is assigned to each point that is proportional to its fitness, and parents (a mating pair) are randomly selected. Crossover The new point, or offspring, is chosen, based on some combination of the genetics of the two parents. Mutation The location of offspring is also susceptible to mutation, a process, which occurs with probability p, by which a offspring is replaced randomly by a new offspring location. A generalized GT generates p new offspring at once and kills off all of the parents. This modification is important in the simulation environment. GT are well suited for qualitative or policy decision optimization such as selecting the best queuing disciplines or network topologies. They can be used to help determine the design of the system and its operation. For applications of GT to inventory systems, job-shop, and computer time-sharing problems. GT do not have certain shortcomings of other optimization techniques, and they will usually result in better-calculated optima than those found with the traditionally techniques. They can search a response surface with many local optima and find (with a high probability) the approximate global optimum. One may use GT to find an area of potential interest, and then resort to other techniques to find the optimum. Recently, several classical GT principles have been challenged. Differential Evolution Differential Evolution (DE) is a genetic type of algorithm for solving continuous stochastic function optimization. The basic idea is to use vector differences for perturbing the vector population. DE adds the weighted difference between two

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population vectors to a third vector. This way, no separate probability distribution has to be used, which makes the scheme completely self-organizing. A Short Comparison When performing search techniques in general, and simulated annealing or genetic techniques specifically, the question of how to generate the initial solution arises. Should it be based on a heuristic rule or on a randomly generated one? Theoretically, it should not matter, but in practice this may depend on the problem. In some cases, a pure random solution systematically produces better final results. On the other hand, a good initial solution may lead to lower overall run times. This can be important, for example, in cases where each iteration takes a relatively long time; therefore, one has to use some clever termination rule. Simulation time is a crucial bottleneck in an optimization process. In many cases, a simulation is run several times with different initial solutions. Such a technique is most robust, but it requires the maximum number of replications compared with all other techniques. The pattern search technique applied to small problems with no constraints or qualitative input parameters requires fewer replications than the GT. GT, however, can easily handle constraints, and have lower computational complexity. Finally, simulated annealing can be embedded within the Tabu search to construct a probabilistic technique for global optimization.

Introduction to Simulation

SAQ 3

Discuss in brief following optimization method (i) (ii) (iii) Simulated Annealing Tabu Search Genetic Techniques

11.6 SUMMARY

In this unit, we have dealt with simulation modeling used for the purpose of designing, planning, and control of manufacturing systems. Simulation in general is to pretend that one deals with a real thing while really working with an imitation. In operations research, the imitation is a computer model of the simulated reality. The task of executing simulations provides insight and a deep understanding of physical processes that are being modeled. With a computer simulation model, a manager or system analyst is able to observe the behaviour of a process without the necessity of experimenting with the actual system. In order to evaluate the systems performance given various disturbances, or to identify the bottlenecks, they may try out different manufacturing runs, new operational conditions, new equipment layouts or different cycle times. With the growing incidence of computer modeling and simulation, the scope of simulation domain must be extended to include much more than traditional optimization techniques. Steps involved in constructing and using a simulation model is discussed in nugget. Various simulation models are discussed under design of simulation model : static and dynamic simulation models, continuous and discrete simulation model, stochastic and deterministic simulation model, social simulation, web-based simulation, parallel and distributed simulation. There are essentially three types of languages one can use for modeling: general-purpose languages, simulation specific languages, and general languages designed for simulation. A case study is discussed to provide more insight to

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modeling problems. Optimization techniques for simulation must also account specifically for the randomness inherent in estimating the performance measure and satisfying the constraints of stochastic systems. The most widely used optimization techniques that can be effectively integrated with a simulation model are discussed in brief. In this unit, we have attempted to cover some basic aspects related to simulation modeling.

Computer Simulation : A computer simulation or a computer model is a computer program, which attempts to simulate an abstract model of a particular system. : The discrete event models deal with events and specific time intervals. Examples of discrete events include computer-performance evaluation and inventory dispatch systems. : These are computer packages for simulation. Some example are C++ SIM, CallSim, GPSS, Powersim, Quest, SIMSCRIPT and Witness etc.

Discrete-Event Model

Simulation Software

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