Annex 2: Alternative Production and Export Growth Data: Ethiopia

Production growth data from the Industrial Census198 for about 100 individual products were compared with trade data from COMTRADE to assess consistency. Consistency would tend to provide support to the sub-sector selections made. On the other hand, in practice, it is often the case that inconsistent data is the reality with which one must contend. Generally, it would be expected that production and export trends would move in the same direction. An inverse relationship might arise from a major switch from exports to domestic production possibly caused by a large import substitution investment or falling export competitiveness, whereas a switch from domestic production to exports would suggest rising competitiveness but would be likely to be reflected in a rise in both production and exports. Alternatively, there may be data collection and classification problems. Overall, Ethiopian production and exports since 2002 both have shown remarkably high growth rates, as confirmed by statistics from the IMF and by COMTRADE data below which show an aggregate growth rate of exports over 2001/2 to 2008/9 of 23% per annum. Revealed comparative advantage for Ethiopia is highly skewed toward primary products, as these dominate its exports. For 2009, the only manufactured category with an RCA ratio of above unity (at 3.47) is one of the selected sub-sectors, sugar and confectionery (and even here this result may be due to the dominance of sugar as opposed to more processed products within the category). For food products, the selection of sugar and confectionery is supported by very high production growth rates in molasses and sweets. In addition, within this sub-sector, milled coffee shows high growth. Most other listed food products show moderate growth. However, export data from COMTRADE show high growth in vegetable preparation and dairy products but negative growth in sugar and confectionery, denoting either inconsistency or diversion of exports to the domestic market. Coffee and oilseeds show only moderate export growth, which is inconsistent with other sources. For textiles and garments, the selection is supported by extremely high growth in bed sheets, hosiery and shirts and high growth in apparel. However, contrary to this trend, there has been a steep decline in carpets, blankets and sweaters. Other products mainly show moderate growth. COMTRADE data confirm the decline in knitted products but
198

Industrial Census of Ethiopia for 2008/9 published by the Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia (CSA).

476

show a relatively modest growth in apparel exports, although from a higher base than for other sub-sectors. For leather products, the selection is confirmed by very high growth in leather uppers and linings and high growth in leather boots and shoes. COMTRADE data are consistent. For wood products, there has been a decline in plywood production, which supports the non-selection of the sub-sector; on the other hand, there has been high growth in particle board production. In chemical products, high growth in soap, detergent and cosmetics (e.g., petroleum jelly) production supports the selection. Other product groups showing significant growth are pharmaceutical preparations (e.g., syrups, ointments, injection packages) and, to a lesser extent, paint and varnish products. COMTRADE data show soap exports falling, which is inconsistent with the selection of this report, and pharmaceutical exports rising strongly from a low base. In plastic products, the selection is supported by very high growth in plastic crates and more moderate growth in plastic footwear and polythene products. COMTRADE data show high export growth in plastic and rubber products. For non-metallic minerals, the selection is confirmed by very high growth in cement blocks, but there is a contrary decline in cement floor tiles. COMTRADE data shows strong growth in glass, ceramics and plaster products. For iron and steel products, non-selection is supported by a steep decline in production of iron bars, wire nails and vehicle springs. On the other hand, one product - iron sheets has shown extremely high growth, while significant growth also has occurred in metal doors and windows. In these latter cases, the products are complementary to nonmetallic mineral building materials. COMTRADE trade show very high export growth in tools and implements, iron and steel articles, and aluminum products (possibly roofing sheets) and also transport and other equipment.

477

Table 10: COMTRADE Export Data: Ethiopia (2001/2-2009/10) Average Annual Export Growth Average Annual Export Growth

Product FOOD PRODUCTS AND BEVERAGES Meat, fruit and vegetables Meat, fish and seafood preparation Edible fruit, nuts, peel of citrus fruit, melons Fish crustaceans, molluscs, aquatic invertebrates nes Meat and edible meat offal Vegetable and animal oil Edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers Vegetable, fruit, nut, etc., food preparations Vegetable plaiting materials, vegetable products nes Animal, vegetable fats and oils, cleavage products, etc. Dairy products Dairy products, eggs, honey, edible animal product nes Grain mill products Milling products, malt, starches, inulin, wheat gluten Animal feeds Residues, wastes of food industry, animal fodder Bakery products, macaroni and spaghetti Cereal, flour, starch, milk preparations and products Sugar and confectionery Sugar and sugar confectionery Other foods Oil seed, oleagic fruits, grain, seed, fruit, etc., nes Cereals Cocoa and cocoa preparations Miscellaneous edible preparations Spirits, soft drinks and mineral water

Product CHEMICALS AND CHEMICAL PRODUCTS, continued Soaps, detergents, perfumes Soaps, lubricants, waxes, candles, modelling pastes Other chemical products Fertilizers RUBBER AND PLASTICS Rubber products Rubber and articles thereof Plastic products Plastics and articles thereof NON-METAL MINERALS Glass and products

-3.0%

10.1% 25.3% 46.0%

36.6%

34.6% 51.4% -103.7% 13.9%

64.6%

79.6%

62.6%

Glass and glassware Structural clay products

56.3%

8.7%

Cement and plaster Stone, plaster, cement, asbestos, mica, etc. Salt, sulphur, stone, plaster, lime, cement Articles of concrete and cement 51.3% 13.4%

37.8%

42.7%

Ceramic products Other non-metallic minerals Ores, slag and ash BASIC IRON AND STEEL

41.1%

-5.3%

8.5%

32.4% -7.0%

Basic iron and steel Iron and steel FABRICATED METAL PRODS EX. MACHINERY Structural metal products, tanks, containers Cutlery, hand tools, hardware 41.1%

96.5%

478

Product Beverages, spirits and vinegar Wines Malt liquors Coffee, tea, mate and spices TOBACCO Tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes TEXTILES Spinning, weaving and finishing Special woven or tufted fabric, lace, tapestry etc. Carpets and other textile floor coverings Headgear and parts thereof Other made textile articles, sets, worn clothing etc. Cordage, rope, twine and netting Impregnated, coated or laminated textile fabric Wadding, felt, non-wovens, yarns, twine, cordage, etc. Manmade staple fibres Vegetable textile fibres nes, paper yarn, woven fabric Knitted or crocheted fabric Manmade filaments Cotton Silk Wool, animal hair, horse hair, yarn and fabric thereof Knitting mills WEARING APPAREL Wearing apparel Articles of apparel, accessories not knit or crochet Articles of apparel, accessories knit or crochet Furskins and artificial fur, manufacturers thereof LEATHER AND FOOTWEAR Raw hides and skins (other than furskins) and leather Tanning, dyeing extracts, tannins, derivs, pigments, etc.

Average Annual Export Growth 30.4%

19.0%

Product Tools, implements, cutlery, etc., of base metal Other fabricated metal prods Articles of iron and steel Nickel and articles thereof Aluminum and articles thereof Copper and articles thereof Tin and articles thereof Zinc and articles thereof

Average Annual Export Growth 102.4%

90.7% 36.9% 106.0% 36.1%

98.5% 33.5%

Lead and articles thereof Arms and ammunition, accessories Aircraft, spacecraft and parts Railway, tramway, locomotives, rolling stock Other base metals, cermets, articles Miscellaneous articles of base metal MACHINERY, EQUIPMENT

50.4%

120.0% 57.8%

35.4%

84.3%

12.1%

Ovens, furnaces Other general purpose machinery

-26.5% 12.7%

Machinery, boilers etc. Optical, photo, medical apparatus Machinery for food and beverages Accumulators for primary cells, batteries Electrical, electronic equipment MOTOR VEHICLES Vehicles other than railway, tramway Ships, boats and other floating structures

54.8% 75.0%

95.7%

108.8%

35.4% 31.2% -34.1%

FURNITURE Furniture and other manufactures nes Furniture, lighting, prefabricated buildings Wood and articles of wood, charcoal OTHERS Lac, gums, resins, vegetable saps and extracts nes 20.3%

70.1% 71.9%

-2.2%

479

Product Leather luggage and handbags Articles of leather, animal gut, harness, travel goods Footwear Footwear, gaiters and the like, parts thereof WOOD AND CORK Wood and cork products except furniture Cork and articles of cork PAPER AND PRINTING Paper and paper products Paper and paperboard, articles of pulp, paper and board Pulp of wood, fibrous cellulostic material, waste, etc. Publishing and printing Printed books, newspapers, pictures, etc. CHEMICALS AND CHEMICAL PRODUCTS Basic chemicals except fertilizers Inorganic chemicals, precious metal compound, isotopes Paints, varnishes and plastics Pharmaceuticals and medicines Pharmaceutical products

Average Annual Export Growth

52.3%

Product Essential oils, perfumes, cosmetics, toiletries Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products, etc. Products of animal origin nes Albuminoids, modified starches, glues Explosives, pyrotechnics, matches etc, Photographic or cinematographic goods Live trees, plants, bulbs, cut flowers, etc. Toys, games, sports requisites Umbrellas, walking-sticks, etc.

Average Annual Export Growth 61.0% 28.0% 7.4%

65.4%

29.5% 107.3%

4.1%

Clocks and watches and parts thereof Pearls, precious stones, metals, coins, etc. Bird feathers, artificial flowers, human hair Musical instruments, parts and accessories Works of art, collectors pieces and antiques Manufacturers of plaiting material, etc. Live animals Commodities not elsewhere specified Miscellaneous manufactured articles 51.4%

21.0%

76.5% 20.8% -15.5% 76.3%

43.4%

58.5%

Total Annual Export Growth

23.4%

Table 11: Ethiopia Medium and Large Scale Industry Census: Time Series on Production Growth
2007/08 % 2008/09 % of 2004/05 of 2004/05 130.3% 142.0% 565.7% 2,923 160,927 611 270 5,704 14,074 126.9% 108.3% 92.6% 226.9% 118.5% 91.5% 171.2% 166.6% 0.0% 158.3% 119.1% 155.1% 259.6% 116.8% 80.4%

2004/05 2005/06 Food and Drink Meat (tons) Veg soup (tons) Zigin and shiro (wet tons) Orange juice (tons) Jam (tons) Tomato paste (tons) Milk pasteurized (HL) Butter and ghee (tons) Cheese (tons) Edible oil (tons) Oil cake (tons) 208 374 108 212 379 108

2006/07 271 1,073 811 5,566 526 1,837 134,617 354 480 6,640 20,427

2007/08 271 1,305 531 838 611 2,343 146,291 365 236 5,787 16,010

2008/09 356 1,073 623 1,159

1,846 1,790 135,077 162,103 394 588 104 122 4,882 11,408 17,496 67,143

480

Flour (wheat) (tons) Flour (other) (tons) Fafa, dupe, edget meten (tons) Pasta (tons) Biscuits (tons) Galetta (tons) Bread (tons) Coffee (milled) (tons) Sugar (tons) Tea (tons) Molasses (tons) Sweets (tons) Animal feed (tons) Beer (HL) Wine (HL) Liquors (HL) Alcohol (HL) Soda (HL) Mineral Water (HL) Malt (tons) Tobacco Cigarettes (000s) Textiles Lint Cotton (tons) Cotton fabric (000 smt) Nylon fabric (000 smt) Acrylic yarn (tons) Cotton yarn (tons) Woolen fabrics (000 smt) Blankets (wool) (000 smt) Blankets (waste cotton) (pcs) Blankets (other) Bedsheets (pcs) Shirts (doz) Carpets (smt) Gunny bags (tons) Hosiery (doz) Woolen fabrics (000 smt) Wearing apparel (leather) (pcs) Sweaters (doz) Sewing thread (tons) Embroidery (tons) Leather and Footwear Leather shoes, boots (prs) Canvas, rubber shoes (prs) Plastic footwear (prs)

2007/08 % 2008/09 % 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 of 2004/05 of 2004/05 148,786 173,787 140,128 152,103 261,409 102.2% 175.7% 204 12,828 14,570 40,258 35,372 10,115 10,429 1,428 172 38,577 24,260 563 16,317 274,836 291,854 6,864 6,527 377 41,343 1,103 1,838 10,501 13,218 7,916 11,924 38,908 13,994 214 34,348 1,544 205,464 7,220 34,770 4,773 8,392 5,840 11,382 37,079 29,546 229 31,255 2,767 297,847 6,966 58,646 4,171 5,533 9,337 10,990 88.7% 85.7% 28,151 92.1% 69.9% 19,256 292.1% 190.4% 1,441 16.0% 100.9% 30,588 81.0% 79.3% 1,984 491.5% 352.4% 312,372 108.4% 113.7% 8,746 101.5% 127.4% 56,859 15556.0% 15082.0% 5,428 378.2% 492.1% 16,779 52.7% 159.8% 146.1% 76.2% 148.1% 242.0% 194.3% 125.6% 105.5% 149.8% 60.2% 82.2% 213.7% 0.0% 98.4% 171.8% 81.1% 121.4% 168.2% 173.8% 145.0% 43.6% 171.6% 29.1% 50.7% 279.7% 384.3% 79.5%

1,462,775 1,560,683 1,733,570 2,137,206 2,513,480 64,526 51,378 52,866 49,192 52,353 54,132 71,779 74,635 80,155 65,729 6,605 20,213 15,983 11,112 1,069,126 2,061,683 978,415 2,077,684 1,858,143 394,303 448,279 453,971 495,227 571,888 15,945 14,968 11,231 16,820 6,950 2,035,920 2,441,247 2,702,150 3,050,580 3,494,622 13,275 35,619 1,067 2,629 4,299 1,648 629,547 972 4,821 4,809 5,163 1,300 11,253 41,603 1,067 3,747 9,193 3,342 90,311 548,419 32,292 73,732 4,416 1,411 24,369 13,101 46,817 1,067 3,299 10,998 1,611 397,158 463,169 22,600 2,921 4,438 11,843 277,255 3,775 5,106 49 2 7,988 29,288 2,280 4,229 1,141 4,778 145,710 346,029 19,456 1,209 61,252 3,857 18,053 2,984 10,104 3,419

1,448 69.2% 87.9% 445,086 145,710 23.1% 23.1% 110,570 3 5 5 9 9 . 7 % 1 1 3 7 5 . 5 % 151,084 403.6% 3,133.9% 25.1% 0.0% 2,923 0.0% 56.6% 103,921 4711.7% 7993.9% 418.3% 13.4% 157.6% 1962.0% 0.0% 203.2% 39.8% 227.5% 792.0% 13.8% 7.7% 621.3% 0.0% 371.7% 67.5% 193.2%

140,097 206,887 46,375 33,229 3,189 3,554 108 25 1 2

586,075 1,109,637 6,225 6,414 5,027 245 2,119 671

846,044 1,287,012 1,748,518 1,719,413 3,144,538 316,972 336,572 107,385 126,125 214,101 6,893,529 8,469,260 15,901,540 15,684,111 13,317,179

481

Leather uppers and lining (000 smt) Leather sole (prs) Semi processed skins (000 pcs) Leather garments (000 sft) Plastic soles (prs) Crust hides, wet blue hides (000 sft) Wood Timber (cmt) Plywood (cmt) Particle board (cmt) Paper and Printing Paper (tons) Cardboard (tons) Chemicals, Plastics and Rubber Foam (cmt) Soap (tons) CO2 (tons) Oxygen (cmt) Plastic crates (000 pcs) Paints (000 lt) Petroleum jelly (tons) Paraffin (tons) Varnishes and lacquers (tons) Capsules (000 pcs) Tablets (000 pcs) Antibiotics (000 pcs) Syrup (000 lt) Ointment (tons) Injection 100A (000 pcs) Tyres (pcs) Tubes (pcs) Electric wire (000 mt) Polythene products (tons) Candles (tons) Ball pens (000 pcs) Non-metallic Mineral Products Cement (tons) Cement blocks (000 pcs) Cement pipes (000 pcs) Cement floor tiles (smt) Clay bricks (000 pcs) Lime (tons) Glasses (000 pcs) Gravel (cmt) Marble (smt) Glass bottles (000 pcs)

2007/08 % 2008/09 % 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 of 2004/05 of 2004/05 685 608 1,052 1,687 3,884 246.3% 567.0% 860 10,818 23,562 22,849 13,836 20,560 127.9% 190.1% 9,465 9,615 356 1,673 1,022 17.7% 10.8% 2,140,771 4,837,168 2,696,625 2,489,780 3,353,423 116.3% 156.6% 12,106 18,099 17,858 24,802 24,669 204.9% 203.8% 11,996 1,343 1,300 6,167 4,453 9,311 357 2,079 5,485 5,950 7,580 511 6,925 9,363 8,463 166,480 35,795 1,324 358,833 652 10,789 880 3,511 822 389,997 573,412 1,638 45 4,277 235,134 111,073 2,385 29,077 259 9,162 930 7,266 7,565 11,501 210,698 52,458 1,370 425,962 601 14,840 1,728 2,576 1,065 275,781 501,758 25 1,653 52 2,731 316,337 121,121 2,704 43,803 113 24,521 133 129,630 11,058 11,216 243,958 58,290 1,370 209,883 1,114 15,255 2,804 1,562 983 206,085 462,519 66 2,534 83 25,578 210,374 2,829 30,772 239 76.4% 69.2% 558.9% 122.7% 258.3% 211.5% 311.8% 116.3% 333.6% 300.5% 181.3% 217.4% 50.4% 126.4% 144.5% 955.5% 144.4% 131.4% 135.5% 157.7% 136.3% 247.9% 36.5% 204.4% 9.9% 9971.5% 179.3% 251.9% 244.9% 346.4% 116.3% 164.4% 557.0% 186.3% 352.7% 30.6% 94.4% 133.2% 1464.7% 230.6% 1230.9% 90.1% 0.0% 142.6% 174.1% 77.1%

99,617 101,888 16,825 23,567 1,178 1,638 127,694 253,270 200 1,297 8,187 10,349 795 656 5,112 7,535 474 218,206 370,445 347,294 602,887 173 191 36 55 2,078 4,481 233,412 181,725 76,796 87,927 1,984 1,322 17,673 29,449 310 261

1,252,659 1,312,445 1,719,633 1,659,127 1,688,225 15,639 12,609 17,682 125,052 765,055 162 134 434 297 339 485,868 953,011 465,779 287,257 112,616 24,785 13,893 44,957 13,909 13,087 11,850 8,141 4,461 4,068 39 733,752 212,120 161,002 200,408 14,681 34,135 203,789 208,463 37,333 667,795 264,539 20,801 652,482 114,374 20,410

132.4% 799.6% 183.3% 59.1% 56.1% 34.3% 91.0% 164.3% 141.7%

134.8% 4892.0% 209.3% 23.2% 52.8% 0.3% 88.9% 71.0% 139.0%

482