Midterm2 HWs

3.54 (a) It is dicult to imagine that professor having a car or not has anything to do with him being listed in the telephone book. Hence, we expect E and F to be independent. (b) As E F , we will get P (F |E ) = 1 > P (F ). Hence, E and F are not independent. (c) If rains last for more than one day, we would actually expect two events to be independent. 3.57 (a) 2p(1 p) (b)
( )
3 2

p2 (1 p)

(c) P {up on rst up 1 after 3} = P {up rst, up 1 after 3} /(3p2 (1p)) = p(2p)(1 p)/(3p2 (1 p)) = 2/3 3.61 Because the non-albino child has an albino sibling we know that both its parents are carriers. Hence, the probability that the non-albino child is not a carrier is P (AA|Aa, aA or AA) = 1/3, where the rst gene member is each gene pair is from the mother and the second from the farther. Hence, with probability of 2/3 the non-albino child is a carrier. (a) Condition on whether the non-albino child is a carrier. With C denoting this event, and Oi the event that the ith ospring is albino, we have P (O1 ) = P (O1 |C )P (C ) + P (O1 |C c )P (C c ) = (b) Observe that
c P (O2 |O1 )

12 1 1 +0 = 43 3 6

c P (O2 O1 ) = c P (O1 )

c c P (O1 O2 |C )P (C ) + P (O1 O2 |C c )P (C c ) 1 P (O1 )

3/4 1/4 2/3 + 0 1/3 3 = 5/6 20

c ) = 3/20 < 1/6 = P (O1 ). That is, since we know that Also note that P (O2 |O1 rst ospring is not an albino, the probability of having albino child on the second generation has decreased.

3.66 (b) Let E = {current ows between A and B } and Ei = {i relay is closed}. Conditioning on E3 , we get by independence
c c ) |E3 P (E ) = P (E |E3 )P (E3 ) + P (E |E3 c ) = P ((E1 E2 ) (E4 E5 ))P (E3 ) + P ((E1 E4 ) (E2 E5 ))P (E3

= P (E1 E2 )P (E4 E5 )P (E3 )

c + {P (E1 E4 ) + P (E2 E5 ) P (E1 E4 E2 E5 )} P (E3 )

= (p1 + p2 p1 p2 )(p4 + p5 p4 p5 )p3 + (p1 p4 + p2 p5 p1 p4 p2 p5 )(1 p3 ). 4.1 X can have these possible values: 4, 2, 1, 0, -1 or -2. And the corresponding probabilities are ( ) ( ) 4 2 6 1 2 2 P {X = 4} = (14) = P {X = 0} = (14) = 91 91
( )( )
2

8 P {X = 2} = (14) = 91
( )( )
2

4 2

2 1

( )( )

P {X = 1} = (14) =
( )
2

8 1

2 1

16 91

P { X = 1} =

4 1

( )
14 2

8 1

32 = 91

P {X = 2} = ( ) =

8 2 14 2

28 91

4.13 P {X = 0} = P {1st no sell & 2nd no sell} = P {1st no sell} P {2nd no sell} = (1 .3)(1 .6) = .28 P {X = 500} = P {1st standard and 2nd no sell 1st no sell and 2nd standard} = .3(1/2)(.4) + (.7)(.6)(1/2) = .27 P {X = 1000} = P {both stndadard 1st deluxe & 2nd no 1st no & 2nd deluxe} = (.3)(1/2)(.6)(1/2) + .3(1/2)(.4) + (.7)(.6)(1/2) = .045 + .27 = .315 P {X = 1500} = P {1st standard and 2nd deluxe 1st deluxe and 2nd standard} = (.3)(1/2)(.6)(1/2) + (.3)(1/2)(.6)(1/2) = .09 P {X = 2000} = P {1st deluxe and 2nd deluxe} = (.3)(1/2)(.6)(1/2) = .045 4.14 P {X = 0} = P {1 loses to 2} = P {X P {X P {X P {X 1 2 11 1 = 1} = P {of 1,2,3: 3 has largest, then 1, then 2} = = 32 6 11 1 = 2} = P {of 1,2,3,4: 4 has largest and 1 has next largest} = = 43 12 1 11 = 3} = P {of 1,2,3,4,5: 5 has largest, then 1} = = 54 20 1 = 4} = P {1 has largest} = 5

4.19 The pmf of X is 1 P {X = 0 } = 2 3 1 1 P {X = 1 } = = 5 2 10 4 3 1 P {X = 2 } = = 5 5 5 9 4 1 P {X = 3 } = = 10 5 10 9 1 P {X = 3.5} = 1 = 10 10 2

4.21 (a) E (X ) since whereas the bus driver selected is equally likely to be from any of the 4 buses, the students students selected is more likely to have come from a bus carrying a large number of students. (b) P {X = i} = i/148, i = 40, 33, 25, 50 E (X ) = 40 40/148 + 33 33/148 + 25 25/148 + 50 50/148 39.28 E (Y ) = (40 + 33 + 25 + 50)/4 = 37 4.27 Let C be the amount charged and X be the random variable representing prot. Then, X takes the value (C A) with probability p (when event E happens) and the value C with probability 1 p (when E does not occur). Then, E (X ) = p(C A) + (1 p)C = C pA. We want C pA = E (X ) = .1A which gives C = (.1 + p)A. 4.32 If T is the number of tests needed for a group of 10 people, then T tales the value 1 with probability .910 (none have disease) and the value 11 with probability 1 .910 . Hence E (T ) = 1(.9)10 + 11(1 .910 ) = 11 10(.9)10 7.51. 4.37 E (X 2 ) = [403 + 333 + 253 + 503 ] /148 1625.4 Var(X ) =[ E (X 2 ) (EX )2 82] .2 2 2 2 2 2 E (Y ) = 40 + 33 + 25 + 50 /4 = 1453.5 Var(Y ) = 84.5 4.41 If he had no ESP, the success probability would be 1/2. Let X be the number of correct answers, then P (X 7) =
( ) ( )i ( )10i 10 1 10 1
i=7

( ) ( )10 10 10 1
i=7

= .171875

4.42 Let X5 be the number of engines working for 5-engine plane. Then, 5 3 2 5 4 5 5 P (5-engine plane operative) = P (X5 3) = pq + p q+ p. 3 4 5 Similarly, let X3 be the number of engines working for 3-engine plane. Then, 3 2 1 3 3 P (3-engine plane operative) = P (X3 2) = pq + p. 2 3 We want that
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

P (X5 3) > P (X3 2)

( ) ( )

5 3 2 5 4 5 5 3 2 1 3 3 pq + p q+ p > pq + p 3 4 5 2 3

( )

( )

6p5 15p4 + 12p3 3p2 > 0 6(p 1)2 (p 1/2) > 0 p > 1/2. 3

4.43 Assume that each bit has a transmission error independently of the other bits. Let X be the number of bits of the signal that are wrong, and note that X = Bin(5, .2) with pmf ( ) 5 i 5i P {X = i} = .2 .8 , i = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. i Then P {wrong message} = P {X = 5} + P {X = 4} + P {X = 3} = .05792. 4.49 Let X be the number of heads from the experiment. Then, (a) P (X = 7) = P (X = 7|coin 1)P (coin 1) + P (X = 7|coin 2)P (coin 2)
(( ) ) (( ) )

10 7 3 1 .4 .6 + 7 2

10 7 3 1 .7 .3 7 2

(b) P (X = 7|rst outcome is head) = =

P (X = 7|rst outcome is head) P (rst outcome is head)

P (6 heads out of 9 trials) P (rst outcome is head)

9 6

(( )

.46 .63

1 2

(( )
9 6

.76 .33

1 2

.4(1/2) + .7(1/2)

4.53 (a) The probability that an arbitrary couple were both born on April 30 is, assuming independence and an equal chance of having being born on any given date, (1/365)2 . Hence, the number of such couples is approximately Poisson with mean 80, 000/(365)2 .6. Therefore, the probability that at least one pair were both born on this date is approximately 1 e.6 .4512. (b) The probability that an arbitrary couple were born on the same day of the year is 1/365. Hence, the number of such couples is approximately Poisson with mean 80, 000/365 219.18. Hence, the probability of at least one such pair is 1 e219.18 1. 4.55 Using Poisson paradigm, we have that P (no errors) = P (no errors|typist A)P (typist A) + P (no errors|typist B)P (typist B) 1 1 = e3 + e4.2 . 2 2 4.57 (a) 1 e3 3e3 1 2 3 17 3 e = 1 e3 2! 2 1 17/2e3 P {X 3 } (b) P {X 3|X 1} = = P {X 1 } 1 e3

4.63 Let X be the number of people entering in those 5 minutes. Then, X = P oisson(5.5) = P oisson(2.5). 4

(a) P {X = 0} =

e2.5 (2.5)0 0!

= e2.5 .082

(b) P {X( 4} = 1 P {X ) = 0} P {X = 1} P {X = 2} P {X = 3} = 1 2.52 2.53 2.5 e 1 + 2.5 + 2! + 3! .242 4.67 Assume n > 1. (a) 2(n 1)!(n 1)! 2 = n!(n 1)! n

(b) Conditioning on whether the man of couple j sits next to the woman of couple i gives the result: 1 n2 2 2n 3 1 + = . n1n1 n1n1 (n 1)2 Alternatively, this is also (n 1)(n 2)!(n 2)! + (n 2)(n 2)!(n 2)! (n 1)!(n 1)! (c) e2 4.71 The probability of losing a game is 1 12/38 = 26/38. 26 5 38 ( )3 ( ) 26 12 (b) 38 38 (a) 4.72 This is an application of Negative binomial distribution since i games are required to observe three success. i1 P {wins in i games} = (.6)4 (.4)i4 3 4.74 Let X be the number of people interviewed. (a) Here, X follows , 2/3). Then ( Bin ) ( (5 )5 ( )0 5 2 1 32 = .1316 P { X = 5} = 3 3 243 5 (b) Here, X follows Bin(8, 2/3). Then P {X 5} = P {X = 5}+P {X = 6}+P {X = 7}+P {X = 8} =
( ) ( )6 ( )2 ( ) ( )7 ( )1 ( ) ( )8 ( )0 ( ) ( )5 ( )3 ( ) ( )

8 5

2 3

1 3

8 6

2 3

1 3

8 7

2 3

1 3

8 8

2 3

1 3

.7414

(c) Using negative binomial random variable, we have ( ) ( the )5 ( )1 5 2 160 1 = .2195 4 3 3 729 5

(d) Similar to part (c), we have ( )( ) ( ) 6 2 5 1 2 160 = .2195 4 3 3 729 4.79 Direct application of Hypergeometric distribution
( )( )

(a) P {X = 0} =

6 0

94 10 ) 100 10

(b) P {X > 2} = 1 P {X = 0} P {X = 1} P {X = 2}
( )( )

=1

6 0

94 10

( )( )
6 1 94 9 ( ) 100 10

( )( )
6 2 94 8

Th 4.27 Since X follows a geometric random variable, we have that P {X = n + k |X > n} = = P {X = n + k } P {X = n + k } = P {X > n } P {X n + 1}

p(1 p)n+k1 = p(1 p)k1 n (1 p)

Th 4.29 Straightforward calculation gives that P {X = k + 1} (m k )(n k ) = P {X = k } (k + 1)(N m n + k + 1) 4.83 Let Xi be the number of accidents that occur on highway i. Then, E (X1 + X2 + X3 ) = E (X1 + X2 + X3 ) = 1.5 1 11 1 1 4.17 (a) P {X = 1} = P {X 1} P {X < 1} = F (1) F (1) = + = 2 4 4 4 Similarly, we have that ( ) 11 1 21 1 P { X = 2} = + = 12 2 4 6 1 11 = P { X = 3} = 1 12 12 ( ) { } 3 1/2 1 1 1 3/2 1 (b) P <X< = + = 2 2 2 4 4 2
( )