editor-in-chief

ndia and Iran were neighbours until 1947, a fact that is just about forgotten today. Both were in regular cultural and trading relations long before the birth of Islam and the discovery of oil, the reasons commonly stated for the closeness between the two civilisational states. In a very real sense Iran is Indias oldest trading partner, culturally as well as economically. India of course has the worlds second largest Shia population, the majority belief in Iran. And when it came to hard nosed realpolitik both cooperated closely during the dark days of Taliban rule in Afghanistan. In fact the former Northern Alliance survived its bleakest days only because of the support given by India, Iran and Russia. Even today there is considerable common ground between India and Iran over Afghanistan and how it should be governed. That remains the worlds biggest security concern. Though some would like the world to believe that the bigger threat is Iran.

It does India no credit, from a historical, social and political sense, that even as some countries hurl themselves into conflict with Iran, there is nothing New Delhi is doing to bring level-headedness to an eminently avoidable situation. India enjoys good relations with all those on the other side of the fence with Iran and which is pretty much what is happening in Tehran. There is a sense of siege creeping into the minds of the people, thus throwing a lifeline to the extremely unpopular Ahmadinejad regime. By all logic of social and political aspirations of people for change, Iran should have led the way in sowing the seeds of a spring of its own. But the constant battling, over the airwaves and motorway bombings, has pushed the people of Iran into the clutches of their unpopular president. He in turn perpetuates the throttlehold on patriotism et al. Perfect recipe for a disaster the world must avoid. The setting is, thus, tailor-made for an Indian role of mediation and reconciliation between Iran and the west led by Israel. India, however, has once decided to outsource its foreign policy to those driven by an agenda that is at odds with the regional and national interests.

It is little wonder that India was selected by those who targeted the Israeli embassy vehicle in Delhi. And that too on one of the posh roads of the capital. There is a message in it, for all those willing to listen. But first India must open its eyes and ears to events unfolding around it, rather than wait to wriggle out of a maelstrom in which it is certain to find itself. Perpetrators of the attack must be bought to justice, whether they are Iranians or otherwise. And then both sides of the ever widening divide must be made to listen to the logic of good sense. An insular India is harmful to itself just as it is a disaster to the world. It has proven that over the Maldives coup and now it seems to be burying its head once again over Iran. It does so at its own peril.

manvendra singh

March 2012 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

publishers view National Interest - First And Foremost

An ISO 9001:2008 Certified Magazine

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chairman shyam sunder publisher & ceo pawan agrawal editor-in-chief manvendra singh executive editor maj gen (dr) g d bakshi SM, VSM (retd) director shishir bhushan corporate consultant k j singh art consultant divya gupta central saint martins college of art & design, university of arts, london corporate communications tejinder singh creative vivek anand pant administration shveta gupta representative (Jammu and Kashmir) salil sharma correspondent (Europe) dominika cosic production dilshad & dabeer webmaster sundar rawat photographer subhash circulation & distribution mithlesh tiwari amit e-mail: (first name)@dsalert.org info: info@dsalert.org articles: articles@dsalert.org subscription: subscription@dsalert.org online edition: online@dsalert.org advertisement: advt@dsalert.org editorial & business office 4/19 asaf ali road new delhi-110002 (India) t: +91-011-23243999, 23287999,9958382999 f: +91-11-23259666 e: info@dsalert.org www.dsalert.org

eople associated with the defence and security domain directly must be laughing after the announcement by our central government a few weeks back of the creation of another establishment to counter terrorism. It is so painful to have to see the non-serious approach of our government on countering terrorism in real terms.

Copying the ideas of counter terrorism institutes in US and other European states has actually proved to be a nice fancy idea here in India. Whereas the reality is that the present security apparatus is so weak that only few days back an Israeli diplomats car was blown away by some terrorist group just a few meters away from the residence of our Honble Prime Minister. It is a matter of alarm for our government that if this attack can happen in such a secured area then what to say about any other common area which is not as heavily guarded as the area around the Prime Ministers residence over which, not long ago, there was a heated debate about creating a no fly zone to ensure that there is no possibility of an attack from the air. While there is no gainsaying the possibility of an airborne attack with toy-sized model aircraft and helicopters it is clear that much more needs to be done to secure the ground beneath our feet given that an attacker can make a clean getaway as happened after the blast in the Israeli embassy vehicle on Aurangzeb Road. The inability of Indian security forces to intervene immediately at any of the crossroads leading out of the area is compounded by the inane claims and out-of-the-blue analysis of likely culprits leaked by police and intelligence agencies to show that they are still relevant in the Indian security morass. We have seen many attacks in the past years from the attack on Parliament, Mumbai carnage and many more like in the premises of the Delhi High Court and to the latest on the diplomatic car in the most secured zone. And the worst is to learn that the Israels secret service Mossad experts will be investigating this attack on their diplomat which is a matter of shame for all Indians. I dont know whether our government allows them for such investigations or not but this statement itself is more than enough assault on our dignity. Government should not allow such investigations by any foreign organisation for an attack that has occurred on our soil and should only make our own investigation agencies to do it and prove their abilities. But even after so many attacks our government has not taken adequate measures in the following aspects related to the security apparatus: Strong surveillance Special training Procurement of latest arms and ammunition

disclaimer all rights reserved. reproduction and translation in any language in whole or in part by any means without permission from Defence and Security Alert is prohibited. opinions expressed are those of the individual writers and do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher and / or editors. all disputes are subject to jurisdiction of delhi courts.
defence and security alert is printed, published and owned by pawan agrawal and printed at graphic world, 1686, kucha dakhini rai, darya ganj, new delhi-110002 and published at 4/19 asaf ali road, new delhi (india). editor: manvendra singh.

That the present government is floating these new ideas of establishing new counter-terrorism institutes is proving to be just fanciful and contentless and is just another political show and nothing more. Till now nothing has actually started on the recently announced National Counter-Terrorism Centre even after the announcement many months ago. It looks as if government is just trying to cover up by announcements only and is not actually committed to counter terrorism at all. And now many chief ministers are clamouring to compel the government to roll back or even rescind the NCTC decision. We at DSA suggest to the policy makers and decision makers responsible for security to first tighten the present security apparatus, provide special training to police and security personnel and procure the best arms and ammunition to counter terrorism in real manner rather than take recourse to floating new fancy ideas which are proving to be a futile exercise on their part. Our current issue is focused on Iran which I think is very topical considering the present happenings in the region that would be affecting India as well. The major threat I can foresee is what happens if Iran stops supplying oil to India for any reason. What is going to happen to our economy which is very much dependent on stable oil prices and we are importing approximately 12 per cent of our total oil requirement from Iran. I wish things are sorted out soon between Iran, Israel and US - so that Indian interests are not affected adversely. Jai Hind!

pawan agrawal

executive editor

The country comes first - always and every time.

crisis looms in the Gulf of Iran. It reached our shores with the attack on an Israeli diplomat in Delhi last month. However far more serious is the threat of an impending conventional conflict between Israel and Iran. If the Straits of Hormuz blow up in our faces, it could have serious consequences for our economy. The facts are stark. 68 per cent of our energy needs (some figures put it as high as 72 per cent) are sourced from the Gulf. This includes 68 per cent of our oil and virtually 100 per cent of natural gas. Our oil refineries that used to refine and re-export Iranian crude are close to losing some US$ 40 billion worth of business. 12 per cent of our oil is imported from Iran. Our Strategic Partners expect us to jettison our national and energy security interests and make ourselves entirely dependent upon Saudi Arabia for oil. The consequences of such a pathetic dependence on a single source could be catastrophic in the event of say a conflict with Pakistan or China or both. Our media today is rife with speculations about an IranIsrael shadow war being waged in the streets of New Delhi. Of far greater concern however are the threats to our energy security. What if the economic sanctions on Iran panic it into blocking the Straits of Hormuz? What if Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities? How would such a scenario pan out? What are the chances of the success of such a strike - how could it be conducted? Far more important, what would be its consequences? Some 6 million Indians work in the Gulf and remit some US$ 40 billion annually. In case of war therefore, apart from the hit to our energy supplies, we stand to lose some US$ 80 billion a year of refining revenue and remittances. The price of oil could climb up by 4-5 times the normal (to US$ 200 and beyond per barrel) and deliver a serious blow to our economy. Most of our refineries are geared to the specific type of crude imported from Iran and as such India cannot rapidly transit to other types of crude in a hurry. We need to urgently check the status of our Strategic oil reserve. We need to anticipate the future and grow out of pathetic knee jerk responses that seem more concerned with safeguarding the National Security Interests of our Strategic Partners than our own. Our own national and energy security interests cannot come last, always and every time in such interactions. Yet we are faced with a Hobsons choice. We need our friends. Especially, tried and tested friends like Israel, who have helped us in every conflict and (like the Russians) are willing to give us their latest and the best in military technologies. We need the Americans to counterbalance the power of a rising China that is beginning to loom ominously in our backyard. Of course we need our friends but the counterpoint is, they need us equally. The situation is materially different from what it was a few years back when we were asked to jettison Iranian oil in return for nuclear energy. Our American Strategic Partners are today in full-fledged retreat from Afghanistan. We will badly need Iran for access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. We are rapidly losing ground to China in Iran (even as we had earlier lost ground in Myanmar and had belatedly to take energetic steps to correct a decade or more of drift). Gratuitous advice that we must now underline our subservient status in South Asia, by handing over Jammu and Kashmir on a platter to Pakistan and recognising Islamabads right to reduce Afghanistan to a colony, are not tenable or welcome anymore. Sure, we do not need a nuclear arms race triggered in West Asia by an Iranian Bomb in the basement. Any further nuclearisation of our neighbourhood would be highly destabilising. Equally, Iran needs to tone down its tub thumping rhetoric on Israel and adopt more realist policies. However, Iran should not be panicked into a situation where, like North Korea, the nuclear card becomes its sole survival option. The Americans were prepared to live with a Pakistani bomb because it only threatened Indian cities. Can they live with an Iranian bomb rather than a Global Recession? In the end, we may be forced to seek alternative sources of supply in the short term. However it would be a strategic disaster for Asian powers to become reliant on western approval to access Middle Eastern energy resources in the long term. It is time therefore to take stock, do plain talking to friends and foes alike and keep contingency plans ready. Soldiers, statesmen and strategists have done just that in this issue of the DSA devoted to the looming crisis in Iran. It is deeply linked to a dangerous sectarian fault line crisis in the Islamic world. The Shia-Sunni axis could equally erupt, adding new complexities to the Middle Eastern cocktail of oil, gas and angst. There is a bomb ticking away in the Persian Gulf. It would be in our prime national interests to defuse it if we can. If we cant we have to safeguard our own national security interests as best as we can.

Maj Gen (Dr) G D Bakshi SM, VSM (retd)

March 2012 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

contents
Crisis in Iran ISSUE March 2012

An ISO 9001:2008 Certified Magazine

Volume 3 Issue 6 March 2012

A R T I C L E S the Iran dilemma

Amb Dr Kanwal Sibal

6 10

Israeli attack on Iran? dire consequences for India

Maj Gen (Dr) G D Bakshi SM, VSM (retd)

Iran - a war has begun

Vice Adm Vijay Shankar PVSM, AVSM (retd)

20 26

Irans foreign policy and its impact on India-Iran relations

Dr Arvind Gupta

A peep at the Asian crystal ball in 2012

Vice Adm Arun Kumar Singh (retd)

30 33

crisis over Irans nuclear programme: implications for India

Brig Gurmeet Kanwal (retd)

the Iran-Israel intelligence war

Dr Prem Mahadevan

39 43 46 50

crisis in Iran: impact on India's energy security

Dr Ahmad Reza Taheri

likely impact of Iran's nuclear programme

Maj Gen P K Chakravorty VSM (retd)

the looming crisis in Iran: impact on India's energy security

Air Marshal B K Pandey (retd)

Indias challenge in west asia

Dr Harsh V Pant

54 57

international oil scenario and energy security for India

Lt Gen O P Kaushik (retd)

for online edition log on to: www.dsalert.org

March 2012 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

walking the tightrope

Dr Navniit Gandhi

62 65 68 78

Irans nuclear bomb: emerging threat of war

Dr Sudhanshu Tripathi

link to Afghanistan and beyond

Cecil Victor

EU-Iran relations
Ms Dominika Cosic

F E A T U R E S Defence Industry Monitor 18, 19, 29 Exclusive Interview - MD, ShinMaywa, Japan 37 The Maldivian Question 72 Security Round-up 61, 71, 81

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DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT DSALERT

March 2012 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Iran conundrum

NATIONAL INTEREST PARAMOUNT

Indias strategic interest in maintaining a productive relationship with Iran conflicts with United States strategic interest in a regime change there. Indias political and economic interests in Iran are apparent, whether they relate to energy security, easier access to Afghanistan, countering Pakistan-backed Taliban in Afghanistan, profiting from contradictions between Iran and Pakistan and maintaining a balanced posture on the Iran-Saudi Arabia and the developing Shia-Sunni divide in West Asia. A strategic partnership should have an element of reciprocity. If India is to take cognizance of vital US strategic concerns, the reverse should be the case too in some measure. The US has tolerated nuclear and missile cooperation between China and Pakistan as it strategically balanced Indo-Soviet ties in the cold war era. Pakistans nuclear capability was seen as India-centric, not a regional problem. Even today the US is unwilling to make an issue of Chinas continued support to Pakistans nuclear programme in violation of the NSG guidelines. The frenzied western opposition to Irans nuclear programme contrasts with the attitude to Pakistans programme.

Amb Dr Kanwal Sibal Amb Dr Kanwal Sibal joined the Indian Foreign Service in 1966. He reached the highest position in the Indian Foreign Service on his appointment as Foreign Secretary to the Government of India from July 2002 to November 2003. He is a member of Indias National Security Advisory Board. He is on the Board of Directors of the New York based East-West Institute. He is on the Advisory Board of the Vivekanand International Foundation. He has received the high distinction of Grand Officier of the Ordre du Merite from France.

India has to give priority to its energy security, particularly as it already imports 70 per cent of its oil and gas needs and this figure will increase to 90 per cent in the years ahead. While it has diversified its sources of oil supply, Iran remains its second largest supplier after Saudi Arabia, providing about 12 per cent of its annual requirements worth about US$ 12 billion. Iran has the second largest reserves of gas in the world and can also be a source of either pipeline gas or LNG if pipeline security issues can be resolved and Iran can have access to embargoed LNG technology. With Iran geographically located virtually next door it makes no sense for India to compromise its long term interests there by cutting off or reducing oil purchases from that country for extraneous political reasons

March 2012 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

March 2012 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

war game: Israel vs Iran

HOBSONS CHOICE?

Maj Gen (Dr) G D Bakshi SM, VSM (retd) The writer is a combat veteran of many skirmishes on the Line of Control and counter-terrorist operations in Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab. He subsequently commanded the reputed Romeo Force during intensive counter-terrorist operations in the Rajouri-Poonch districts. He has served two tenures at the highly prestigious Directorate General of Military Operations. He is a prolific writer on matters military and non-military and has published 24 books and over 100 papers in many prestigious research journals. He is also Executive Editor of Defence and Security Alert (DSA) magazine.

The terror strike on an Israeli diplomat brought the Iran-Israel shadow war to the streets of Delhi. Any crisis in the Persian Gulf would dramatically escalate the price of oil and thereby seriously impact on the Indian and global economy. The price of oil could easily cross US$ 200 per barrel and more. Over 68 per cent of Indias oil supplies and 100 per cent of its gas are currently sourced from the Gulf region. The US and Europe are now putting in place economic sanctions to target Irans oil exports. Iran in turn has threatened to block the Straits of Hormuz in retaliation. Any Iranian attempts to close the Gulf of Hormuz could seriously impact the Chinese, Indian, Japanese and South Korean economies. Such an economic crisis would be pushing the envelope too far and there is now a need for a frank dialogue between us and our strategic partners. This article analyses the likely shape and contours of an Israeli military strike on Iran and its huge consequences. A clear and present danger is looming and there is a dire need to anticipate events and defuse the crisis before it overtakes us.

Iran has threatened that in such a strangulation scenario it would close the straits of Hormuz and trigger a global economic recession. The economies worst hit would be those of China, India, Japan and South Korea. Over the last two years India has already lost some US$ 40 billion of export revenues because the Reliance facility at Jamnagar has been prevented from refining Iranian crude oil. It is noteworthy that India imports of oil were some 21.2 mn tons some two years ago. These are still at 13 mt. Any closure of the Gulf of Hormuz could trigger an energy crisis as over 68 per cent of Indias oil imports come from the Persian Gulf countries. The price of oil could easily cross over US$ 200 per barrel and trigger a serious economic crisis not just in Asia but all over the globe

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March 2012 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

ISRAELIATTACKONIRAN?

DIRECONSEQUENCESFORINDIA

March 2012 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

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French Dassault And Indian Reliance Industries Limited Join Hands

Barely a week after bagging the US$ 15 billion 126 fighter aircraft deal, French Dassault and Indian Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) have signed an agreement under which they will start working together in defence and homeland security sector from next week. "Dassault Aviation, a major player in the global aerospace industry, has entered into MOU with Reliance Industries, for pursuing strategic opportunities of collaboration in the area of complex manufacturing and support in India," the two companies said in a joint statement. The MOU has been signed after the Defence Ministry on January 31 offered Dassault the multi-billion dollar deal to supply 126 combat aircraft to the IAF. Sources said Dassault would involve RIL for working together in the Medium-Multirole Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) deal here under the offsets clause. After finalising the deal, Dassault will have to reinvest 50 per cent of the worth of the deal back into Indian defence sector. The aerospace and security division of the Reliance Industries is headed by Vivek Lall, who has been closely associated with the MMRCA deal while spearheading the campaign for Boeing in the deal. Lall has earlier worked with American NASA and Raytheon. In the recent past, there have been efforts by the MukeshAmbani-headed RIL to position itself in the defence, internal security and aerospace solutions sector.

Guidelines For Defence Public-Private Sector JVs Approved

India has come out with detailed guidelines on formation of joint ventures (JVs) between defence public and private firms enabling future tie-ups between the two for exploring business opportunities in the security sector and for boosting indigenous design, development and production capabilities, over four months after it had put on hold such an effort by Mumbai-based government-owned Mazagon Docks and Gujarat-based private sector Pipavav Defence and Offshore Engineering. The decision also comes even as there is a major debate in progress over demands from the private sector for increasing the foreign direct investment in the defence business from the existing cap of 26 per cent to 49 per cent, which they claim would increase technology transfer and also help develop indigenous capabilities. The new guidelines, prepared by the defence ministry, were approved by the central cabinet headed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and in which Defence Minister A K Antony is a key member. The guidelines, it said, will help enhance "fairness and transparency" in the selection of the JV partner and ensure "A well-defined nature and scope" of the JV. It will also explicitly help in retention of the "affirmative right" of the Defence Public Sector Undertaking (DPSU) for prior approval to key JV decisions such as amendments to articles of association of the company, declaration of dividend, sale of substantial assets and formation of further JVs or subsidiaries. The guidelines also mandate that there will be "exit provisions" for the DPSU under the JV and there will be regular reporting and monitoring of the JV functioning."The JV guidelines will provide a streamlined, fair and transparent framework for entering into JVs by DPSUs, with the ultimate objective of better risk-management, greater efficiency and shorter time frames for delivery to meet the increasing demands of our armed forces and for enhancing self-reliance in the defence sector as a whole," defence ministry officials said. The guidelines became necessary after MDL formed a JV with Pipavav for modular shipbuilding, but this decision came in for criticism from other private shipbuilders in the country such as Larsen & Toubro, ABG Shipyard and Bharati Shipyard, who lodged formal protests with the defence ministry, leading to Antony's decision to put the MDL-Pipavav JV on hold in September 2011. Since 2000 India had opened up its defence sector, which was till then the exclusive domain of government-owned undertakings, for private participation and also allowed for 26 per cent foreign participation in private JVs. There is a demand for hiking the defence FDI cap to 49 per cent and this demand also has the support of the ministry of commerce and industry. But the defence ministry wants to keep it at 26 per cent for the moment. India has allowed for 50 per cent foreign participation in defence design, development and production projects only in the case of Russian firms and the best example of this is BrahMos Aerospace, an Indo-Russian partnership firm that developed and now produces the eponymous 290-km range supersonic cruise missiles that are already in service withthe nation's armed forces.

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March 2012 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Rolls-Royce Water Jets For Indian Coast Guard

British aerospace manufacturer Rolls-Royce will soon deliver 60 water jets for a new fleet of 20 Fast Patrol Vessels for the Indian Coast Guard, the company said announcing its results last week. Rolls-Royce "will deliver 60 Rolls-Royce water jets for a new fleet of 20 Fast Patrol Vessels for the Indian Coast Guard," the company's India President Anil Shrikhande, said in New Delhi. "India is a key market for Rolls-Royce and one in which we have been active for over 75 years. We continue to develop our manufacturing and engineering-services presence here through mutually beneficial collaborations with companies like Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), L&T, TCS and Quest. Recently, the company had announced the start of construction of a facility in Bangalore, to manufacture important aerospace components for the Trent family of engines. Today Rolls-Royce engines are powering Indias critical growth sectors like civil aerospace, defence aerospace, marine and energy. We are proud to be a partner in progress and look forward to continuing to deliver excellence for our customers in India during 2012, Shrikhande added.

Selex Sistemi Naval Radars For INS Vikrant

Selex Sistemi Integrate, part of the Italian major Finmeccanica company, has inked a contract with state-owned Cochin Shipyard Limited for the delivery of naval radar for Indias indigenous aircraft carrier. As per the contract, the Italian firm Selex will deliver the air surveillance naval radar RAN 40L and IFF radar for the 4, 00,000tonne warship INS Vikrant. The Italian firm Selex Sistemis radar called RAN-40L is a 3D long range early warning radar with fully solid state active phased array antenna which is capable of detecting an aircraft up to 400 kilometers. The design of the RAN-40L radar has been proven on the land based 3D RAT-31DL by the firm. The 3D RAT-31DL is the famous long range surveillance radar provided worldwide to the NATO countries. Selex Sistemi Integrati has been a dependable supplier of radar systems for air defence to India and has had a presence in India for almost four decades. In the naval field, the parent company Finmeccanica has supplied three command and control systems for the Godavari and Brahmaputra class frigates and the additional logistic support. The company is also providing the Indian Navy and Air Force with the PAR 2080C system, a Precision Approach Radar. Lately, the Italian firm has also realised radars and systems for air traffic control to be set up at a few airports in southern Indian cities.

The Worlds First Precision 81 MM Guided Mortar Round

General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems and BAE Systems have teamed to develop, demonstrate and produce the 81 mm Roll Controlled Guided Mortar (RCGM), an affordable 81 mm precision mortar round. The companies have been maturing the guided mortar technology over the last 12 months and will be conducting tactical demonstrations early in 2012. The teaming arrangement between General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems, a business unit of General Dynamics and BAE Systems' Munitions business, will leverage their respective strengths to provide a low-cost, highly affordable, precision mortar. The 81 mm RCGM uses the current UK L41 round and US M734A1 fuse, but incorporates GPS guidance and General Dynamics' patented Roll Controlled Fixed Canard (RCFC) technology to provide a precision strike capability.

March 2012 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

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Iran conundrum

MILITARY PRE-EMPTION
A war has begun in Iran; a combination of covert action, economic sanctions, political isolation and the threat of military pre-emption have not just crippled the Iranian economy but have checkmated Irans war waging potential. The threat of unleashing an asymmetric conflict is more pressure tactics than a credible denial strategy. Critical aspect is assessing Irans ability to close the Gulf as threatened periodically. Iran and especially the naval elements of its Revolutionary Guard Corps, has sought to develop a unique denial naval force based largely upon flotillas of fast, attack crafts backed up by a variety of crafts capable of laying mines, conventional and midget submarines. These are supported by shore-based anti-shipping missiles, aircraft, rockets and artillery all with rudimentary command and control. However they are not equipped materially nor technologically for any sustained denial operations when up against US and coalition forces. What they could achieve is disruption through low level sporadic attacks on shipping. Whether Iran has the political sagacity to cope with the current situation without giving opportunity for the US to take recourse to arms is a moot question. And what of the strategy of despair: terror?

Vice Adm Vijay Shankar PVSM, AVSM (retd) The writer holds an MSc in Defence Studies and is a graduate of the Naval War College, Newport, Rhode Island, USA. He is the former Commander-in-Chief of the Andaman and Nicobar Command, C-in-C of the Strategic Forces Command and Flag Officer Commanding Western Fleet. His Command and operational experience are comprehensive and include Command of INS Viraat the aircraft carrier. He is a member of the adjunct faculty of the National Institute of Advanced Studies and he currently tenants the Admiral Katari Chair of Excellence at the United Services Institute.

The nature of war that we are currently witness to in Iran does not readily fall into any mould. Covert action, cyber attacks and political alienation sufficiently reinforced by economic sanctions and intrusive nuclear inspections on the one hand, has unleashed globally disruptive nationalism on the other. Potentially a far more dangerous effect is what nations over the last century have turned to, the strategy of despair: terrorism

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March 2012 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Iran-AWarhasBegun

March 2012 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

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Iran conundrum

BALANCING ACT
India Iran relations took a turn for the worse when India voted against Iran at the IAEA in 2005, 2006 and 2009. Eventually, Iran was referred to the UN security council which resulted in imposition of UN sanctions on it. Iran has also been apprehensive of the Indo-US nuclear deal. Iran feels that India has jettisoned its independent foreign policy by siding with the US against Iran. In Irans perception, the lack of progress in the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline is due to the US pressure on India. Iran will be crucial to any settlement of the Afghan conflict. In the rapidly changing geopolitical environment, India and Iran must maintain close relationship. This will require India to balance its relations with Iran on the one hand and the US, Israel and the Gulf countries on the other. Indias Finance Minister has stated that India will not stop buying oil from Iran. This should reassure Iran.

Dr Arvind Gupta The writer is the Director General, IDSA, New Delhi. The views expressed in this article are personal.

Iran will be crucial to any settlement of the Afghan conflict. A large number of Afghan refugees are still living in Iran. The western regions of Afghanistan are linked with Iran. The Afghan government tries to maintain good relations with Iran despite the former's overwhelming dependence on the West for survival

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March 2012 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

IransForeignPolicy

anditsImpactonIndia-IranRelations

March 2012 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

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Raytheon, US Navy Complete JSOW C-1 Developmental Testing

The U S Navy completed developmental testing (DT) of the Raytheon Company Joint Standoff Weapon C-1. The conclusion of DT brings US and allied warfighters one step closer to being able to engage moving ships as far as 60 nautical miles (70 statute miles) away with an air-launched weapon. Developmental testing finished when the JSOW C-1 struck a small, fast-moving ship target during the weapon's second flight test.

Boeing Begins production Of F/A-18E/F

Boeing has announced that it has started production of the new Distributed Targeting System (DTS) for the F/A-18E/F Super `Hornet strike fighter. It is part of the U S Navy's F/A-18E/F Network Centric Warfare Upgrades programme and the F/A-18E/F Flight Plan, which will ensure that the Super Hornet remains ahead of emerging threats in coming decades. The Boeing Super Hornet is a multirole aircraft, able to perform virtually every mission in the tactical spectrum, including air superiority, day/night strike with precisionguided weapons, fighter escort, close air support, suppression of enemy air defences, maritime strike, reconnaissance, forward air control and tanker missions. Boeing has delivered more than 480 F/A-18E/F to the US Navy. Every Super Hornet produced has been delivered ahead of schedule and on budget.

Cmde Samaddar Appointed Director and CEO of ShinMaywa, India

Commodore Sujeet Samaddar, NM (retd) has been appointed as Director and Chief Executive Officer of ShinMaywa Industries India Private Limited (SMIIPL). SMIIPL is a wholly owned subsidiary of ShinMaywa Industries Ltd Japan, which manufactures amphibian aircraft, industrial machinery systems, special purpose trucks, aircraft passenger boarding bridges, water treatment equipment and environmental systems. Sujeet will be based in New Delhi. Sujeet is an alumnus of IIT Roorkee and has two masters in Defence and Security Studies and a postgraduate diploma in Business Management. He is also an alumii of the United Nations University, Tokyo and the National Institute for Defence Studies, Tokyo. Sujeet retired from the Indian Navy after 29 years of service which included command of four warships and held several key staff and training assignments. He has several years of experience in defence acquisitions and defence budgets having retired as the Principal Director Naval Plans. Post retirement he served as Vice President Operations at NOVA Integrated Systems a TATA Enterprise.
March 2012 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

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Iran conundrum

CAPRICIOUS MINDSET

Vice Adm Arun Kumar Singh (retd) The writer is former Flag Officer Commanding-in-Chief of the Eastern Naval Command, Vishakhapatnam. He was Director General of the Indian Coast Guard during the Tsunami of 2004 and Commander-in-Chief of the Tri-Service, Andaman and Nicobar Command. He is also a prolific writer on maritime, strategic and nuclear issues. Even if the US Navy uses force to keep the Hormuz straits open, the conflict would soon result in western air and cruise missile strikes on Iranian ports, airfields, coastal missile batteries and other military installations, along with "nuclear weapon building facilites". This conflict will take weeks to open the Hormuz straits and of course would end only when a suitable "regime change" takes place in Tehran. India needs to expedite its oil and gas reserves, "operationalise" the Kudankulam civil nuclear reactors and have contingency plans to evacuate Indian expatriates from the Middle East

The Iran-USA standoff on the Iranian threat to close the Hormuz straits, has serious implications for India, as it imports 70 per cent of its oil and gas from the Middles East, on ships transiting the Hormuz straits. The EU decision to ban oil imports from Iran wef July 2012 and Israel's decision to give the USA only 12 hours notice of any strike on Iran'snuclear facilities, both announced on 23 January 2012, have further aggravated tensions.

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A peep at the Asian Crystal Ball in 2012

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Iran conundrum

REGIONAL INSTABILITY

Brig Gurmeet Kanwal (retd) The writer is Director, Centre for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi. The views expressed in this article are personal.

Crisis over Irans Nuclear Programme: Implications for India

Diplomatic arm-twisting on the Iranian nuclear crisis is continuing to undermine the strategic partnership between India and the United States (US). No single issue has posed as much of a foreign policy challenge for the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government in India like the on-going Iranian nuclear imbroglio. The majority in India perceives Iran as a non-hostile Muslim country with which India can do business. However, most Indians are unfavourably disposed towards the present hard-line regime, are in favour of greater restraint on the part of Iran. India cannot wish away the crippling impact that economic sanctions and, even worse, military strikes on Iran will have on its energy security and its trade in the region. In the ultimate analysis, Indias interests lie in the diplomatic resolution of the crisis.

While the on-going stand-off will not result in a major breakdown in Indo-US ties, it will dampen Indias enthusiasm for greater depth and sustained cooperation in the nascent strategic partnership. It will also have a debilitating impact on Indias civil nuclear energy programme, which cannot flourish without advanced Western nuclear reactor technology and safeguarded nuclear fuel. It will further increase Indias dependence on fossil fuels for sustained economic growth and force India into forging an energy security partnership with Iran on Iranian terms. The latter course of action is neither in Indian interests nor in US interests

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DSA: Kindly tell our readers about ShinMaywa Industries? When was the company founded? What products do you have to offer the Indian Armed Forces? ShinMaywa: ShinMaywa Industries began its business operations as the Kawanishi Machinery Company about 90 years ago. The company later renamed as ShinMaywa Industries Ltd. (ShinMaywa means New Bright Harmony) expanded its business to include Passenger Boarding Bridges, Environmental Systems, Pumps, Direct Drive Motors and automated car parking systems. We now have customers in more than a 100 countries. We have overseas plants in five countries and last year we had sales of about US$ 1.3B. Our company philosophy is to contribute to the improvement of societies and our company prioritises the values of Safety, Quality, Schedule and Cost in all its operations. The Company has supplied 47 seaplanes to the Japanese Maritime Self Defence Force (JMSDF). Its latest product is the US-2 which is operated by the JMSDF. We have offered the same US-2 to the Indian Navy. DSA: Would you like to share ShinMaywa vision for its India operations with us? ShinMaywa: ShinMaywa is a major supplier of Passenger Boarding Bridges and Wire Terminating machines to Indian customers. We have now responded to the Indian Navys RFI for amphibian aircraft. We also have regular inquiries for our other engineering products and environment systems. We are here in India for the long term. DSA: ShinMaywa Industries are contributing to the advancement of the aircraft industry by fusing traditional craftsmanship and leading-edge technology. How do you differentiate your technology from the others when it comes to making the finest amphibian aircraft? ShinMaywa: The STOL Technology based on BLC (Boundary Layer Control) which allows ultra-low speed operations and introduction of Spray Suppressor technology which enables operation in rough seas with waves of three meter high is unmatched. This permits least takeoff and landing distance whether on land or sea, the longest range, the highest payload and is the only aircraft in its class which is proven, in-service and certified / ruggedised for military specifications. Its radar system combines both weather and surface surveillance. For India, the US-2 uses the same class of engines that the C130J uses. I think we have a very good product for our global and strategic partner - India. I also see the US-2 as a very good vehicle to implement the vision of our two countries to build a solid partnership between India and Japan. This benefits a larger world community and would rightly fit into Indias growing responsibilities. DSA: Could you elaborate about the amphibian aircraft in greater detail? What is their usefulness in the Indian context? ShinMaywa: The US-2 is a vastly superior aircraft with fly-by-wire flight controls, glass cockpit with integrated instrument panels, pressurised cabin and new marinised AE 2100 J Rolls Royce engines with increased power. Its high performance capabilities and versatility enables the aircraft to be deployed for a wide spectrum of missions including surveillance, MEDEVAC, remote islands and offshore platforms support and enhanced SAR capabilities, fleet logistic support and many others. Every day we hear that the aircraft can be given more missions because of its unique capabilities. These ultimately benefit society. This is an aircraft that meets not only Indian requirements but also provides a capability for regional deployments commensurate with global expectations from a rising power such as India. The US-2 is really the best option for safe seas and secure coasts for a better tomorrow. We are very happy and ready for joining DEFEXPO in New Delhi to introduce our amphibious aircraft US-2 to many people in India. DSA: What are your business expansion plans for the Indian market? Where do you see ShinMaywa Industries in India 10 years down the line? ShinMaywa: Ten years is not such a long time. Our focus is to first introduce the US-2 in the Indian Navy since we believe that this aircraft is really the best and second to none in its category. Our other products are also of unmatched quality and use very powerful modern technologies. We expect that the Indian market will accept our products for their high quality and high technology. Our intention is to be in India for the long term and we will expand our operations in a calibrated manner.

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Iran conundrum

INDIAN CONCERNS

TheIran-IsraelIntelligenceWar
Dr Prem Mahadevan The writer is Senior Researcher for Intelligence, Sub-state Conflict and Organised Crime at the Center for Security Studies in Zurich, Switzerland. Between 2002 and 2009, he completed an undergraduate degree in War Studies and postgraduate and doctoral degrees in Intelligence Studies from King's College, London. He has written extensively on Indian and Pakistani intelligence agencies and his articles on Indian counter-terrorism have been made recommended reading for military officers in North America and Western Europe.

A useful analysis of Israels covert offensive against Irans nuclear facilities and its likely consequences in terms of a regional conflict that could close the straits of Hormuz and cause major damage to our energy security and the economy per se. What is worse is that the Israeli covert methodologies used could inspire the ISI and its Jihadi cohorts to attack Indian nuclear facilities and scientists. That constitutes a very dangerous new scenario for which India must prepare its response options.

The Guards have roughly 2,000 mines with which to block commercial shipping in the Straits, although it is estimated that not more than 300 are actually needed for the purpose. Iran also has a large fleet of speedboats with which to mount guerrilla-style attacks on merchant vessels and is positioning missiles to hit the wealthy and crowded cities of the United Arab Emirates, just across the Strait. Unless tensions can be defused in the next few months, some kind of military action is likely

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Iran conundrum

INDIAN CONCERNS

CRISIS IN IRAN: IMPACT ON INDIA'S ENERGY SECURITY

Dr Ahmad Reza Taheri The writer is Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Iranshahr, Iran. He is an expert on Iran and Western Political Philosophy. He has published many books and contributed articles in academic periodicals.

An important article that presents the Iranian perspective on the crisis likely to emerge from Western economic sanctions. Iran exports 60 per cent of its crude oil to Asia; China alone imports 20 per cent of its crude oil from Iran .According to Iranian official reports, Iran's oil accounts for 16.6 per cent of India's crude oil imports. According to Indian official reports, India has imported about 22 million tons of crude oil valued at about US$ 10 billion in 2009-2010, which makes it the third largest market for Iranian crude. India exports diesel, refined oil, petroleum products and processed minerals to Iran. It is said that close to 40 per cent of the refined oil consumed by Iran is imported from India. The article is pessimistic that India is likely to buckle under Western pressure and shift its energy dependency almost entirely to the GCC countries.

In lessening or cutting relations with Iran, India has to deal with care, since this approach might create few divisions or confusions within the Republic of India, especially on the part of Muslim community. Thirdly, a safe Afghanistan matters a lot to the Indian national interest. India knows that together with a sincere Iran, they may be capable of working to make a relative secure Afghanistan. Neither India nor Iran will welcome a regime in Afghanistan close to Pakistans ISI. Fourthly, a friendly Iran can play its own positive role in Indo-Pak relations. The Iran-Pak-India pipeline, for example, could meet the energy demands of both India and Pakistan, had it been approved

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Iran conundrum

THE GENESIS
Post 1979 revolution Iran has fought a war with Iraq, stated publicly her wish to Wipe out Israel and has been on hostile terms with all Arab countries except Syria. Iran also provides financial assistance and arms to the Hamas group in Palestine and the Hezbollah group in Lebanon. The implications of Iran having nuclear weapons are certainly a threat to the Middle Eastern region. A well researched article that traces the genesis of the current crisis.

Maj Gen P K Chakravorty VSM (retd) The writer is an alumnus of National Defence Academy who was commissioned into the Regiment of Artillery on 31 March 1972. A Silver Gunner who has undergone the Long Gunnery Staff Course, Staff College and is a graduate of the National Defence College. He has commanded a Medium Regiment and a Composite Artillery Brigade. He was Major General Artillery of an operational Command, Commandant of Selection Centre South in Bangalore and Additional Director General Artillery at Army Headquarters. He has also served as the Defence Attach to Vietnam and is a prolific writer on strategic subjects.

A senior retired intelligence official from Israel has stated it was not possible for Iran to develop a bomb before 2015, an assessment agreed by most American officials. The main hitch is the centrifuges have been partially disabled by a computer virus the Stuxnet worm. Stuxnet appeared in industrial programmes around 2009. Experts dissecting the virus, soon deduced that it had been possibly calibrated in a way that it would send nuclear centrifuges wildly out of control, adding to suspicions that it was meant to sabotage Irans nuclear programme. Apparently Stuxnet appears to have wiped out roughly 20 per cent of Irans nuclear centrifuges, thereby delaying production of nuclear weapons

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LIKELY IMPACT OF

IRANS NUCLEAR PROGRAMME

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Iran conundrum

SANCTIONS AND AFTERMATH

There is an uncanny similarity between the actions of the US in the run up to the assault on the sovereignty of Iraq nearly a decade ago and those in the recent months aimed at what appears to be emerging as serious intent of military action against Iran. The Gulf holds 60 per cent of the global oil reserves and the three major oil producing nations Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran together can boast of owning 25 per cent of the worlds oil reserves. Around 40 per cent of the global trade in crude passes through the Strait of Hormuz and hence its blockage by Iran would create a serious imbalance in global demand and supply driving oil prices through the roof.

Air Marshal B K Pandey (retd) The writer is former AOC-in-C HQ Training Command, IAF, Bengaluru and served for three years in a Diplomatic Assignment at the Indian Embassy during the years of turmoil (1989-1992) in war-torn Afghanistan. He was responsible for setting up the only English Medium School in Kabul at that point in time. He has also been Operations Manager at ARC, an intelligence organisation.

Both India and China have refused to join the crusade for sanctions against Iran sponsored by the US. Indias officially held position is that she will comply with only those sanctions that are imposed by the UN. However, given the exclusion of Iran from the international banking system, India will and must find alternatives to pay for the oil that she proposes to continue to buy from Iran. One of the options available to India could be a model similar to the rupee-rouble model or barter system adopted for trade with the Soviet Union years ago

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THE LOOMING CRISIS IN IRAN:

IMPACT ON INDIAS ENERGY SECURITY

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Iran conundrum

PRECARIOUS IMPASSE
As tensions mount in West Asia, India will need to think creatively to safeguard its regional interests. There are some in India who have suggested that New Delhi can play the role of bringing the US and Iran closer. This is not only a gross overestimation of Indias own diplomatic heft but a serious misreading of the factors that have led to the drifting apart of the US and Iran over the last more than three decades. New Delhi would be better served by focusing on its own interests and how best to protect them in a regional milieu that is being shaken by Irans global isolation and military bellicosity. A new containment policy is being structured by Washington with the installation of anti-missile batteries in the Arab states and with an emerging plan to put more ships and anti-missile batteries into the Persian Gulf as the concerns of Arab Gulf states have risen.

Dr Harsh V Pant The writer teaches at Kings College, London and is presently a Visiting Fellow at the University of Pennsylvania, USA.

India would like to increase its presence in the Iranian energy sector because of its rapidly rising energy needs and is rightfully feeling restless about its own marginalisation in Iran. Not only has Pakistan signed a pipeline deal with Tehran, but China also is starting to make its presence felt. China is now Irans largest trading partner and is undertaking massive investments in the country, rapidly occupying the space vacated by Western firms. Iran's total crude exports to China increased 47 per cent from January to July 2011

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IndiasChallengeinWestAsia

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Iran conundrum

PRAGMATIC SOLUTION

INTERNATIONAL OIL SCENARIO AND ENERGY SECURITY FOR INDIA

India imports 73 per cent of its present oil requirements. By the year 2025 this is likely to get enlarged to 83 per cent. Dependency on foreign oil is a major security concern for India. Furthermore, major oil suppliers to India - Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, Libya, Iraq to name a few are members of Organisation of Islamic Conference, a 57 member group of Islamic countries, who, in the past sided with Pakistan. India must build-up reserve oil stocks. All developed countries have built-up stocks. China is also buying oil by offering higher prices and creating emergency reserves. We must create a strategic Petroleum reserve equivalent of 90 days of total Indian crude oil imports.
Lt Gen O P Kaushik (retd) The writer has been General Officer Commanding in the Kashmir valley. He was chief of staff of Eastern Command and is the former Vice Chancellor of Maharshi Dayanand University, Rohtak, India.

Coal is being used for 64 per cent of our energy consumption. We have enough coal available indigenously and, therefore, its use for power generation can be enhanced to save on diesel consumption for the same purpose. Use of oil for electricity generation can be further reduced by exploiting our hydro generation. We have nearly 300 perennial rivers and rivulets to provide us unlimited hydroelectricity. New findings of natural gas in Godavari basin and in Gujarat should be utilised to meet our energy requirement and to save oil

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Israeli Embassy Vehicle Attacked In New Delhi

n Israeli diplomats car exploded near the Indian prime ministers residence in New Delhi injuring the wife of an embassy staff member and at least three other people, in what appeared to be a coordinated, two-pronged terror attack against Israeli missions in India and Georgia. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu immediately blamed the strikes on Iran and Lebanon-based Hezbollah, raising concerns in the Mideast about a more overt confrontation by regional powers. Iran is behind these attacks, Netanyahu said. It is the biggest exporter of terror in the world. ... We will continue to take strong and systematic, yet patient action against the international terrorism that originates in Iran. Amateur video from the scene showed a Toyota Innova with Israeli diplomatic license plates consumed by flames, its headlights still on and black smoke billowing from the wrecked vehicle. The blast also ignited a red car behind the silver Innova, slightly injuring two people. After the attacks, the Israeli Foreign Ministry instructed all diplomats and embassy personnel to refrain from driving their cars until they have been inspected by security personnel. India condemns such incidents, said Foreign Minister S M Krishna. The investigation has started. We will keep Israel posted. Israel and India have maintained diplomatic ties for the last 20 years. They have close relations and often share intelligence, given that both face Islamic fundamentalism on their borders. The two are discussing a free-trade agreement. Israeli officials said they had thwarted similar would-be attacks in recent weeks in Azerbaijan and Thailand.

Delhi Police Going Hi-tech

ver the years, along with rapid changes in the way of life, has come a whole new way of crime. In order to deal with the same with a firm hand, the Delhi Police has been on a modernisation drive to improve its capability and be better equipped to handle the changing face of crime in the capital. In addition to this initiative, better and faster vehicles have been procured for the PCR, to give an incisive edge to the whole concept of speedy response, Emergency Response Vehicles have also been attached to all police stations. Integrated Command Control Co-Ordination And Communication Centre (C4i)

Established in Delhi, the C4i project seeks to provide uniformed situation awareness and an integrated decision support system. The purpose of C4i is to provide real time situation awareness for Delhi Police in all situations and includes various markets border check-posts etc. CCTV Surveillance System Delhi Police has CCTV surveillance system in 26 market places and 5 border check-posts. In the next step, 28 new markets and 10 border check-posts have also been identified for installation of CCTV system. Know Your Police Station This is a useful programme initiated recently by Delhi Police in association with Microsoft that has been launched to enable citizens to get information about the respective jurisdictions of 161 territorial police stations of Delhi and other useful information like the police station phone numbers, name and photograph of SHOs, etc. on their website It also enables the user to visualise the route of the desired police station in respect of any particular location in Delhi and has a mechanism too for sharing information with the police without disclosing ones identity.

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Iran conundrum

INDIAS DILEMMA
There are no permanent friends and no permanent enemies in international politics; only permanent interests ...

Dr Navniit Gandhi The writer is a freelancer and an author of repute based in Kuwait.

Our relationships with both - Iran and Israel could be kept out of limelight and public view. We need access to hydrocarbons from a mixed basket of sources, including Iran. Our ties with Israel will anger the Islamic world and our ties with Iran will upset Israel and the US Since our strategic and economic gains are at stake, we have to be cautious and diplomatic and if possible, maintain a low profile while going about doing our business as usual

We cannot afford to be guided by anything but our national interests, in the ongoing issue involving Iran. Much is at stake in the web of global relationships. We cannot antagonise the US and we cannot join the rhetoric and isolate Iran. Both are risk-laden propositions. It is, however, Irans geo-strategic position that makes a big difference to us. Its geographical proximity to Pakistan and Afghanistan matters. It matters to us that who wields influence in Afghanistan in the wake of an exit by the American troops. It is in the mutual interests of both - India and Iran that Pakistan is prevented from reigning supreme in the region. Our relationships with both - Iran and Israel could be kept out of limelight and public view.

Saudi Arabia is the chief supplier of oil to India and our crude oil imports from Riyadh are likely to double in the next 20 years. There are approximately 1.5 million Indian workers in Saudi Arabiaand their remittances (US$ 6 billion annually) are a crucial component of our forex reserves. Also, we need an ally with a clout in the Islamic world

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Iran conundrum

PERILOUS IMBROGLIO

Irans Nuclear Bomb:

Emerging Threat of War
Dr Sudhanshu Tripathi The writer is Associate Professor, Political Science in Dr R M L Awadh University, Faizabad, UP.

The IAEA Press and Public Information Officer Giovanni Verlini informed The Moscow News over the next few days, the report will be distributed only among the delegations of the membercountries and that it will be up to the diplomats to decide whether to pass on its details to the press or not

Several questions arise as regards to Irans many nuclear centres. The enrichment centres at Natanz and Qom invariably draw the attention of IAEA experts because they are equipped with dual devices which, after minor alterations, can produce highly enriched uranium of weapons grade level. Similarly the research reactor IR-40 in Arak which is a heavy-water reactor, besides its normal function, can also produce weapons grade plutonium in an easy way. Its construction makes it possible to change fuel cassettes on the fly, without ceasing operation. This makes it easier for manufacturing weapons grade fissionable materials in a secret manner. 65

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Iran conundrum

STRATEGIC FULCRUM
The road connecting Zaranj on the Iran-Afghan border to Dilaram in west-central Afghanistan on the Kandahar-Herat highway built by India is by itself a good strategic investment but much will depend on how India is able to manage the security of this 218-km stretch in the face of the barren nature of the landscape and the inherent danger of a Pak-Taliban intervention. More urgent, at the moment, appears to be the need to retain workable links with Iran in the face of the strident standoff between Tehran and the US-led western phalanx bent on putting the brakes on what is seen as an Iranian attempt to acquire nuclear weapons.

Cecil Victor The writer has covered all wars with Pakistan as War Correspondent and reported from the conflict zones in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia in South East Asia as well as from Afghanistan. He is author of India: The Security Dilemma.

Indias effort to create an effectual linkage with Afghanistan in which the Zaranj-Delaram highway will become the umbilical cord between the besieged Hamid Karzai regime and the rest of the world through Irans Chabahar port is in danger of being scuttled. India will have to apply great diplomatic acumen to try and delink the western embargo of Iran from the creation and maintenance of a link with Afghanistan through the Iranian corridor of Chabahar through Milak and Sistan. A rail-cum-road bridge over the early stretch of the Helmand river is part of the plan for the strategic link with Afghanistan

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Link to Afghanistan and beyond

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Mr Rajiv takes over as new CISF DG

enior IPS officer Mr Rajiv took over as the new chief of the Central Industrial Security Force (CISF), which guards countrys sensitive installations like airports and nuclear plants. Mr Rajiv, who goes by his first name, took charge from outgoing Director General N R Das at the force headquarters. Mr Rajiv, a 1975-batch officer of Uttar Pradesh cadre, was till recently serving as the Director General of the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) and Civil Defence in the national capital. Taking command of the 1.47-lakh strong force, which guards countrys airports and sensitive nuclear and aerospace installations, will serve till his retirement in October next year. A winner of President's Police Medals for both distinguished service and meritorious service, he takes over at a time when the CISF is raising fresh units and developing new methods to enhance security preparedness at its sensitive deployments including at 58 airports which it guards at present. A Masters in Physics from the Allahabad University, Mr Rajiv has earlier served as Additional DG in the Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB), a border guarding force, in New Delhi.

SAARC Meeting On Anti-Terror Mechanism

Meeting of High Level Group of Eminent Experts from SAARC countries to strengthen Anti-Terror Mechanism was attended by delegates from Bhutan, India, Afghanistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka and the SAARC Secretariat Indian delegation was led by Director, Intelligence Bureau, Shri Nehchal Sandhu. Issues relating to further improving the functioning of SAARC Terrorist Offences Monitoring Desk (STOMD) and the SAARC Drug Offences Monitoring Desk (SDOMD) based in Colombo, Sri Lanka, review of the enabling legislation enacted by the Member States on SAARC Regional Convention on Suppression of Terrorism and its Additional Protocol as well as the SAARC Convention on Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances and to further enhance the implementation process of these Conventions by the Member States were discussed at this Meeting. The Meeting considered the SAARC Convention on Mutual Assistance in Criminal Matters as well. Exchange of information among the Member States on a real time basis for better coordination to counter terrorism and drug related activities, developing cooperation, capacity and relationship building among the SAARC Police authorities were identified, among others, as possible methods of strengthening the SAARC anti-terrorism mechanism.

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Iran conundrum

FUTURE TENSE
The strategic importance of the Maldives can hardly be overstated. 80 per cent of the country is one metre or less above sea level. Besides, there are other economic and geographical vulnerabilities the most serious being the problem of global warming, which threatens to submerge the country as such. In fact, Maldives forms a geo-physical part of the same ridge that extends to Diego Garcia. (A major US Naval base). There have been persistent reports about Chinas bid to establish a submarine base in Marao, a coral island (40 km south of Male). There is increasing inroad of Wahhabi Islam in the social and religious discourse of Maldives. The moderate Sunni society is increasingly getting radicalised. The latest coup has strong underpinning of Islamic fundamentalism and the China factor. Nasheed is on record to say that a week before his ouster he was under pressure from Maldivian National Defence Force (MNDF) to sign a defence agreement with China.

RSN Singh The writer is former Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW) officer and has authored books on strategic and military affairs.

There have been persistent reports about Chinas bid to establish a submarine base in Marao, a coral island (40 km south of Male). The reports gained currency following the visit of the then China Premier Zhu Rongji in 2001. The reports mentioned the Chinese design to base nuclear submarines with ballistic missiles. Coral islands make fine natural submarine base. There have also been reports that Pakistan has been using the Islamic card with Maldives to provide such facilities to China

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The Maldivian Question

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Iran conundrum

EU PERSPECTIVE
This article provides the European perspective on the coming crisis on Iran. European Union, the writer says, is going into confrontation with Iran, specially France and United Kingdom. However, all European countries do not favour conflict with Iran. Relations with Iran have been always very sensitive. There are two main reasons for this sensitivity EU still does not have one common foreign policy and last but not least the trade links are quite close. The European Union is the leading trade partner for Iran, accounting for a third of its imports and Iran is one of the most important exporters of energy to EU. However, after decision of EU foreign ministers, the moment of confrontation is almost upon us.

Ms Dominika Cosic The writer is a journalist and political correspondent based in Brussels. She specialises in NATO and European Union affairs. She is correspondent (Europe) of Defence and Security Alert (DSA) magazine. Who will be the bigger loser in this game the EU or Iran? Maybe only some of EU countries? Both sides pretend to hide doubts. One thing is quite certain in a worst case, if war with Iran will start the EU will be again not united. France and UK are not representing whole of Europe, even Germany the biggest economic and political power in EU is not so enthusiastic

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EU-Iran relations

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Counter Terrorism
s the Union home ministry looks to allay states' concerns over the National Counter-Terrorism Centre (NCTC), its officials are working to answer questions raised by over a dozen chief ministers about the 'powers' given to this anti-terror agency which is meant for coordinating counter-terrorism efforts throughout the country. Since these chief ministers are strongly opposed to the Centre's notification empowering NCTC with power to arrest and conduct search and seizures anywhere in the country, considering it an encroachment to their jurisdiction, officials are focusing on this particular provision to clarify the ministry's position. A draft, being finalised by them, explains that it is absolutely necessary to empower any such agency under section 43 (A) of the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act to operate under 'live' operation situation like what had happened during the 26/11 Mumbai terror attack.

Need Intel-Based Approach To Combat Maoists: PC

nion Home Minister P Chidambaram fired a couple of rounds from a Light Machine Gun (LMG) to give a sound start to the opening of a shooting drill on Wednesday while emphasising that the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) will have to acquire an Intel-based strategy to combat Maoists. Mr Chidambaram was speaking at inauguration of the CRPF Intelligence School. The Home Minister pulled the LMGs trigger like a professional shooter, prompting journalists to ask whether he hit the bulls eye. But there were no answers from the officials present at the Kadarpur School. The CRPF, a key force in anti-Naxal operations, will have to acquire an intelligence-based strategy to combatMaoists who have organised themselves as a regular fighting army, Mr Chidambaram said. Counter-insurgency and countering Left-Wing Extremists [LWE] require a very different strategy and approach. Its not intervening, setting things right in a few days and returning to your group centre or your headquarters. It is remaining deployed for a long time to take on an adversary such as the Communist Party of India (Maoists), which is organised as a regular fighting army, the Home Minister said, terming the training school as a milestone in the forces history. All this has made new demands upon the CRPF. One has to develop intelligence about his adversary, one has to develop intelligence for operations and one has to work with the community and build confidence among the people in that area, undertake civic action programmes to win the support of the people. So, a lot of new activities have to be undertaken by the CRPF, which is why it was felt that a small intelligence wing or a group in each battalion will be necessary [for the CRPF]. The CRPF has deployed more than 70,000 troops for anti-Naxal operations in various states.

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