Commodities Daily Report

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Friday | 13 Sept, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate shruti.ghanekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

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Commodities Daily Report

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Friday | 13 Sept, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
NEWS HIGHLIGHTS Market Highlights (% change)
Additional allocation of 50 la ton of foodgrains for the BPL families at BPL prices during 2013-14
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs has approved the additional allocation of 50 lakh tonne of foodgrains for the Below Poverty Line (BPL) families at BPL prices during the current financial year. This additional allocation of 50 lakh tonne will remain valid for lifting upto 31st March, 2014 or till the National Food Security Ordinance is implemented in the respective State/UT Governments. Earlier this year also a similar allocation of 50 lakh tonne of foodgrains to States/UTs has been approved. Considering the sufficient availability of stock of foodgrains in the Central Pool and requests received from States/UTs, Government has been allocating additional BPL allocation of 50 lakh tonne of wheat and rice to the States/UTs since 2010-11. The Government of India is allocating foodgrains to the States/Union Territories (UTs) under Targeted Public Distribution System (TPDS). (Source: PIB, GOI)
Last Prev. day

as on Sept 12, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19782 5851 63.43 108.6 1330.4

-1.08 -1.06 0.24 0.97 -2.46

4.23 4.61 -3.92 0.21 -3.11

4.41 4.25 3.77 2.35 -0.32

9.90 7.73 14.88 11.95 -23.12

.Source: Reuters

Agri exports fall 19% in Q1

In the first quarter of the current financial year, Indias agricultural export was down 19 per cent in terms of value over the last year, primarily on the back of lower exports to the US and Bangladesh. Indias total agriexport in the first three months of the last financial year was $6.36 billion, which tumbled to $5.18 billion in the present financial year, data from Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority showed. Exports to the US were down by 59 per cent, at about $ 793 million between April-June this year over the last year. A price crash of guar gum, the highest exported agri-commodity to the US from India, has been one of the biggest reasons for the decline in exports. Guar gum exports to the US fell 63 per cent in terms of value, but remained flat in terms of quantity, over a years time. Last year saw an unexpected spurt in guar gum prices due to bulk purchase from US shale gas companies in the beginning of the year and very low demand by the end of the year. The prices fell from about peak prices of Rs 1,025 a kg in April-May 2012, to Rs 200 per kg by October-December 2012. (Source:
Business Standard)

Export of Sugar will help Faster Clearance of Cane Price Arrears to the Farmers-Prof. K.V.Thomas
Ministry of Food in principle does not have any objection to permit further export of sugar as it will help faster clearance of cane price arrears and help the country to earn some precious foreign exchange. This was stated by Prof. K.V. Thomas, Minister for Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution while addressing the annual general meeting of National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories here today. He said that Government policies, including, the ones relating to sugar exports, are aimed at balancing the interest of consumers, farmers and the industry. Prof Thomas assured that while reviewing sugar export policy, his Ministry will be fair to all stakeholders. (Source: PIB, GOI)

US Rice Supplies Up 2% on Increased Harvested Acres and Yield

U.S. 2013/14 rice supplies are increased 5.6 million cwt or 2 percent because of increases in beginning stocks and production. Imports are unchanged from a month ago. U.S. rice production in 2013/14 is forecast at 185.1 million cwt, up 3.7 million from last month due both to an increase in area harvested and yield. Harvested area is estimated at 2.46 million acres, up 15,000 acres from last month. Harvested area estimates are raised for all states except Mississippi and Missouri which are lowered. The average yield is estimated at a record 7,511 pounds per acre, up 105 pounds per acre from last month, with increases in all states except California and Texas. Record yields are forecast for Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Texas. Long-grain rice production is forecast at 126.5 million cwt, up 1.8 million from last month. Combined mediumand short-grain production is forecast at 58.5 million cwt, up 1.9 million from a month ago. All rice beginning stocks for 2013/14 are raised 1.9 million cwt from last month to 36.4 million (rough-equivalent basis) based on USDAs Rice Stocks report released on August 27. (Source:
www.agweb.com)

No major change in cotton sowing area but yield may rise

Cotton could spin a different story this season starting October with a higher yield expected though there is no major change in coverage. Factors such as exports and prices could, in fact, determine the route map for next year. The cotton scenario is beginning to undergo changes with China switching its strategy by importing more hosiery yarn. But Beijing will continue to import cotton as it is still the worlds biggest spinner. As regards the crop status, with bountiful rains and favourable weather across all the growing areas, a cotton crop higher than last year is likely this season. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the area under cotton so far is marginally down at 113.16 lakh hectares (lha) against 113.46 lha during the same period a year ago. Production could rise at least 10 per cent and the Cotton Association of India has already pegged it at 372 lakh bales (of 170 kg each). (Source: Business Line)

Millers demand hike in sugar import duty to 30%

Ahead of the new crushing season, sugar millers have urged the Government to subsidise exports of the sweetener, while seeking a hike in import duty to 30% on both white and raw sugar. The millers are reeling under the impact of high cane costs and arrears. Addressing the 54th annual general meeting of National Federation of Co-operative Sugar Factories Ltd (NFCSFL), its President Kallappa Awade said the surplus sugar output in 2012-13 in both domestic and global markets had impacted prices. Also, the import of raw and white sugar at nominal duty had adversely affected cane payments. The cane arrears stood at Rs 4,783 crore as on July 31. We earnestly urge you to impose at least 30 per cent import duty on white and raw sugar. Also, we request you to permit export subsidy on sugar to save the farmers and the industry, Awade said. (Source: Business Line)

French Soft-Wheat Exports Seen Rising 5.7% on Demand Outside EU

Frances soft-wheat exports, the European Unions largest, may rise 5.7 percent as demand from clients including Algeria and Egypt is expected to make up for slower sales in Europe. Shipments of the grain may climb to 18.2 million metric tons in the 2013-14 season from 17.2 million tons the previous crop year. The EU has issued export licenses for 4.47 million tons of soft wheat since July 1, the fastest pace in at least 10 years, boosted by a jump in exports from Romania. France may start winning business from Egypt, the worlds biggest wheat buyer, as Romania begins to deplete its supplies. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Friday | 13 Sept, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Chana
After declining over the past few sessions, chana futures picked up considerably on Thursday on strong festive season demand. Improving demand from the millers due to declining supplies from the major producing regions also supported prices. Also prospects of higher sowing amid good rains in the chana growing regions have pressurized prices over the last few days. The spot as well as the October Futures settled 1.61% and 3.54% higher respectively on Thursday. As per a circular by NCDEX dated August 21 2013, Special Margin of 5% on the Short side imposed earlier has been withdrawn in Chana with effect from beginning of day Friday, August 23, 2013. As per the data released by the ministry of Agriculture, area under kharif th Pulses stood at 102.93 lakh ha as on 6 September 2013, up by 5.35 percent compared to the corresponding period last year. Pulses sowing in Gujarat as on 2 Sept was seen on 4.83 la ha, up by 31% compared to the same period last year. Also, sowing of kharif pulses in th Rajasthan as on 26 August was seen 22.68 lakh ha, up by 20% compared to the corresponding period last year.
nd

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX Sept'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on Sept 12, 2013 % change Last 3150 3111 Prev day 1.61 3.56 WoW 0.00 0.45 MoM 7.75 10.40
Source: Reuters

YoY -32.31 -32.89

Spread Matrix
Closing 3150 3111 3220 3298 20-Sep-13 -39 0 -

as on Sept 12, 2013 18-Oct-13 70 109 0 20-Nov-13 148 187 78 0 as on Sept 11, 2013 Stocks as on 10th Sept 45605 53893 10732 109230 Qty in Process 160 30 70 260

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as 11 Sept 45605 52923 10762 109290
th

Demand supply scenario

After producing record 18.45 mn tn Pulses, India is set to produce record crop for second year in row in 2013-14 as sowing during the ongoing kharif season is excellent propelled by good rains. Also, favorable soil moisture level has made ground for bumper Rabi harvest too. In value terms, India imported $2.3 billion of pulses in 2012-13, almost 28% higher over $1.85 billion in the previous year. However, imports may drop in 2013-14 season on expectations of higher output. Kharif Pulses witnessed a marginal decline in the output which was offset by a considerable rise in Rabi output, especially Chana during 2012-13. Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 seasons. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. As per the estimates, Chana output was pegged at a record 8.8 mn tn compared with its third advance estimates of 8.49 million tonnes and a previous record of 8.2 mn tn in 2010-11.

Qty in Process 160 30 0 190

309

111

938

1358

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX October contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Chana futures may trade higher today extending yesterdays gains. A pickup in the physical demand specially from the millers on the back of declining supplies coupled with the upcoming festive demand is expected to support prices. However, higher kharif pulses sowing and expectations of a better rabi sowing due to good rains in the chana producing regions may cap sharp gains and pressurize prices at higher levels.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana Oct Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for Sept 13, 2013 Resistance 3265-3310

3130-3180

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Commodities Daily Report

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Friday | 13 Sept, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean futures traded on a positive note on Thursday and settled 0.99% higher due to higher international markets coupled with weakness in the Rupee. Prices have declined earlier on expectations of new season arrivals to commence in the coming days. In the domestic markets, although area under soybean this season is at record level, concerns over output remain as excessive rains in MP have damaged some soy crop. Overall production is still expected to remain higher due to early rains and increased planting As per data released by the ministry of Agriculture, area under oilseeds th was recorded at 191.64 la ha on 6 Sept, 2013, an increase of 12.86% th as compared to the corresponding period last year. As on 10 September, soybean sowing in MP is up 9.8% at 63.8 la ha, while in Maharashtra it is up by 21.7% at 39.16 la ha. Indias Soymeal exports jumped to 1.83 lk tn in August against 10,006 tn in August last year due to robust demand and favorable prices. International Markets CBOT Soybean traded on a positive to bullish note as the USDA monthly report revised soybean production estimates lower than August and settled 2.62% higher on Thursday. The USDA monthly crop report kept the acreage to 77.2 mn acres unchanged from its earlier estimates. Harvest estimates have been trimmed to 3.149 bn bushels from the earlier estimates of 3.255 bn bushels. Forecast of 2013-14 ending stocks have also been slashed from 220 mn bushels in August to 150 mn bushels. Dry weather and heat conditions in the Midwest have raised yield concerns and support prices. Export demand further supported an upside in the prices. The USDA weekly crop progress report downgraded the good-toexcellent rating to 52% from 54% last week and 32% a year ago. USDA reported that 97% of the crop is setting pods vs. 99% a year ago. According to Agro consult, a local analyst, Brazil new soy crop is seen at a record 88.4 mn tn in 2013/14 as against 81.46 mn tn last year.

Market Highlights

as on Sept 12, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 0.99 -0.22 0.99 2.62 0.89 2.03 -2.35 1.34 -1.60 -1.96

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX Oct '13 Fut Soybean-CBOT Sept'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX Sept'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3560 3452 1442 3632 3510

MoM -0.25 15.18 4.97 -1.60 7.87

YoY -20.84 -9.04 -17.16 -14.81 -13.87

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Closing 3560 Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 3452 3454.5 3486 0 2.5 0 18-Oct-13 -108 20-Nov-13 -105.5

as on Sept 12, 2013 20-Dec-13 -74 34 31.5 0 as on Sept 12, 2013 18-Oct-13 -82.1 40 0 20-Nov-13 -38.1 84 44 0

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 Closing 3632.1 3510 3550 3594 20-Sep-13 -122.1 0 -

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total Stocks as on 11th Sept 1776 251 1348 644 38234 781 432 43476 Qty in Process 0 0 0 50 60 30 0 140 Stocks as on 10th Sept 1776 251 1348 644 40649 781 432 45881

as on Sept 11, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 61 10 0 71 NCDEX October contract

Source:Telequote

Outlook
Soybean futures are expected to trade on a positive note tracking higher international markets on the back of weather concerns in the domestic as well as the US. However, commencement of arrivals of early sown soy crop in the coming days may cap gains.

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed also traded higher tracking higher oilseeds 0.85% higher on Thursday. Demand for mustard is also good due to lean supplies of other oilseeds Prices declined over the last few days due to weak oilseeds prices coupled with comfortable supplies of mustard.. Agriculture ministry in its fourth advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.82 mn tn, up by 18.4% compared to 2011-12 season.

Technical Chart Soybean

Outlook
Mustard seed futures may trade on a positive note on the back of good mustard demand coupled with higher oilseeds prices. However, ample supplies coupled with expectations of a better sowing may continue to cap gains and pressurize prices.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Oct Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Sept 13, 2013 Support 3385-3420 3497-3524 Resistance 3485-3515 3575-3600

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Friday | 13 Sept, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Ref soy oil October futures traded on a positive note yesterday and settled 0.92% higher on account of festive demand coupled with Rupee depreciation. However, arrivals of new season soy crop in would commence soon, easing supplies in the coming weeks, thus capping sharp gains. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India Imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils declined 6.13% to 889,493 tn in July. Monthly soy oil imports rose 69% as local supplies are almost before the soybean crop enters the markets. Stockpiles of edible oil at ports on Aug 1 stood at 610,000 tn, the trade body said, lower than 695,000 tn on July 1. Stocks were still on the higher side despite the decline in monthly imports.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 675.40 684.05 42.69 2361 531.80 Prev day 0.39 0.40 0.09 0.43 0.30

as on Sept 12, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Sept '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTSept'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Sept '13 Fut CPO-MCX- Sept '13 Futures

WoW -3.20 -1.89 -1.16 -1.63 -2.92

MoM -0.60 1.20 0.87 3.55 5.62

YoY -15.36 -13.14 -23.65 -16.22 -0.73

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 Closing 675.4 684.05 669.1 665.3 20-Sep-13 8.65 0 18-Oct-13 -6.3 -14.95 0 -

as on Sept 12, 2013 20-Nov-13 -10.1 -18.75 -3.8 0 as on Sept 12, 2013

Outlook
Soy oil may trade on a mixed note with a negative bias. Appreciation in the Rupee, coupled with expectations of arrivals of the early soy crop and comfortable stocks of imported edible may pressurize prices. However, festive demand may support prices at lower levels.

Crude Palm Oil

MCX CPO Futures recovered from lower levels on account of short coverings coupled with depreciation in the Rupee and settled 0.3% higher. Festive demand supported prices at lower levels. Prices on the KLCE also settled 0.43% higher. Malaysian palm oil futures inched up on expectations that healthy exports will persist into September coupled with a weak Ringgit boosting export hopes. Prices on the KLCE had earlier declined to the lowest level this year and have spurred export demand for most consumed cooking oil. Also, an increase in the output is expected due to seasonally higher yield period, may cap sharp upside and pressurize prices. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products between September 1-10 increased 10.79% to 462,471 tonnes from 417,414 tonnes shipped between August 1-10. Malaysia has set the export tax for Palm oil at 4.5% for September, unchanged since March. According to Malaysian Palm oil Board, exports increased 7.37% in August against July, while palm oil output increased 3.6% and the end stocks increased 0.11%. India's refined palm oil imports declined 27.8% in July to 213,853 tn from 296, 230 tn in June as a weak Rupee made imports expensive.

CPO Spread Matrix

30-Sep-13 31-Oct-13 30-Nov-13 Closing 531.8 528.8 529.1 30-Sep-13 0 31-Oct-13 -3 0 -

30-Nov-13 -2.7 0.3 0

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

NCDEX October contract

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX Sept contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
CPO may trade on a mixed note. Festive demand, higher oilseeds and depreciation in the Rupee may support prices. However, comfortable supplies may cap sharp upside. Sentiments for Malaysian palm oil futures remain positive on hopes of healthy exports to continue in the month of September.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Oct NCDEX Futures CPO MCX Sept Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Sept 13, 2013 Support 661-665 520-525 Resistance 673-677 536-541

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Friday | 13 Sept, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
Jeera futures traded on a positive note on account of good overseas as well as domestic demand. However, easing tensions in Syria have capped gains. Good rains in the jeera belt in Gujarat have increased prospects of a better sowing in the upcoming season. The spot as well as the October Futures settled 0.07% and 1.05% higher on Thursday. According to IBIS, India exported 9462.64 tn of jeera in June. The major destinations were UAE, Nepal, Vietnam & USA. 1% Jeera of Indian origin Singapore is being offered at $2,200/tn (FOB Mum) while Europe at $2,300-2,325/tn (CNF). (Source: Agriwatch) In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey.

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13674 13348 4942 4568 Prev day 0.07 1.33 -2.17 -3.10

as on Sept 12, 2013 % Change WoW -1.11 -2.73 -4.37 -11.13 MoM 1.01 0.95 -2.85 -2.31 YoY -7.91 -3.91 -11.55 -24.12

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Sept Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX Sept '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 Closing 13673.7 13347.5 13662.5 13862.5 20-Sep-13 -326.2 0 18-Oct-13 -11.2 315 0 -

as on Sept 12, 2013 20-Nov-13 188.8 515 200 0 as on Sept 12, 2013 20-Sep-13 -374.4 0 18-Oct-13 -58.4 316 0 20-Nov-13 59.6 434 118 0 as on Sept 11, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 10th Sept Process 1319 2310 3629 8546 NCDEX October contract 0 267 267 0

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 10,000 bags on Thursday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 Closing 4942.4 4568 4884 5002

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Outlook
Jeera futures may trade on a mixed note. Overseas as well as domestic demand may support prices. However, Easing tensions in Syria coupled with prospects of higher sowing in the coming season may cap sharp upside in the prices. Situation in Syria needs to be closely watched, as escalation of tensions will push up the prices.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 11th Sept 1319 2425 3744 8546 Qty in Process 30 288 318 0

Turmeric
Turmeric Futures traded on a negative note on account of huge carryover stocks coupled with good sowing amid favorable weather conditions. However, prices recovered from lower levels towards the end of the day and settled 0.69% lower on Thursday. Overseas as well as domestic demand has supported prices at lower levels. According to a circular by NCDEX, launch of April 2014 expiry contract in Turmeric has been postponed till further notice.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Nizamabad and Erode were reported at 1,200 and 3,000 bags respectively on Thursday. Sowing of Turmeric in AP is reported at th 0.53 lakh ha as on 11 September, as against 0.54 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.66 lakh ha. Production in 2012-13 is reported around 45 lakh bags, lower by 4050%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric may continue to trade lower on account of huge carryover stocks coupled with favorable climate. However, export as well as festive demand may limit the downside and support prices at lower levels.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX October contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX Oct Futures Turmeric NCDEX Oct Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for Sept 13, 2013

Support 13470-13570 4780-4830 Resistance 13760-13850 4940-4990

Source: Telequote

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Friday | 13 Sept, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar October futures recovered on Thursday on account of short coverings and settled 0.13% higher. Prices have declined due to ample supplies along with expectations of a higher output and selling pressure from the mills. However, a pickup in demand ahead of the festive season restricted a sharp decline and supported prices at lower levels. An increase in the import duty to curb the inflows also supported prices at lower levels. The Food Minister said that his ministry has moved a cabinet proposal to allow state governments to hike prices of sugar for PDS. Good monsoon conditions in Maharashtra and Karnataka has led to expectations of recovery in the cane yield, keeping prices under pressure. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in th 48.74 la ha as on 6 Sept 2013 as compared to 50.06 la ha last year as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area. Based on satellite images for June and field surveys carried out by ISMA (Indian Sugar Mills Association), total sugarcane acreage available for crushing in the sugar season 2013-14 will be about 51.50 lakh hectares, which is about 1.52% less than 52.30 lakh hectares last year. (Source: ET)

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX Sept '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeOct'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE October '13 Fut `/qtl 3008 `/qtl 494.5 $/tonne 381.78 $/tonne 0.06 -0.52 0.30 Last 3020

as on Sept 12, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.25 -0.38 0.37 1.98 4.06 MoM YoY -0.80 -15.63 -0.43 -1.14 0.12 -12.81 -11.36 -12.88

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 Closing 3020 3008 2988 2997 20-Sep-13 -12 0 18-Oct-13 -32 -20 0 -

as on Sept 12,2013 20-Nov-13 -23 -11 9 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. However, good monsoon has curbed some losses. According to the preliminary estimate of an industry body, Production is estimated to be 237 lakh tonne for 2013-14 season as compared to 250 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. According to trade body, with a domestic consumption of 235 lakh tonne and an expected production of 237 lakh tonne, the year 2013-14 will be a consecutive fourth year of surplus production for India. ISMA has estimated that the opening balance as on October 1, 2013 (for the new season 2013-14), will be around 80 lakh tonne, which is about 20 lakh tonne more than the normal opening balance.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on 11th Sept 599 3874 0 923 5396 Qty in Process 599 0 0 0 599 Stocks as 10 Sept 599 3874 0 923 5396
th

as on Sept 11, 2013 Qty in Process 599 0 0 0 599

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX October contract

Global Sugar Updates

LIFFE Sugar settled 0.52% lower on Thursday as USDA monthly report has forecast higher supplies. Prices have gained due to good demand in the physical markets. However, ample supplies due to higher crushing in Brazil have capped sharp gains. The ISO has estimated sugar surplus to fall to 4.5 mn tn in 2013/14 as against 10.3 mn tn last year. Brazil's main cane region produced 3.2 mn tn sugar in the second half of August, up 10% from the 2.91 mn tn produced in the first half of August. Prices, in the long term have declined on account of abundant supplies from Brazil. According to UNICA, Brazilian mills have produced 19.961 mn tn of sugar from the start of the cane season on April 1, up 7 percent from a year ago. According to Datagro, Centre-South output for 2013/14 is seen at 34.18 mn tn against 34.09 mn tn last year. Mills allocate 48.63% of cane to sugar while 51.37% to ethanol.
Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar may trade with negative bias as ample supplies, selling by the mills and expectations of a sugar surplus continue to mount pressure on the prices. However, festive demand may support prices at lower levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Oct NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for Sept 13, 2013 Support 2981-2985 Resistance 2993-2997

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Friday | 13 Sept, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas as well as MCX Cotton Futures gained 0.59% and 1.8% on Thursday on demand from millers as well as yarn exports coupled with expectations of delay in harvesting by around 15 days due to heavy rains have supported prices. Depreciation in the Rupee also supported prices. The government has allowed the CCI to export more cotton in the current season. The government deferred the decision of imposing a 10% tax on exports of surplus cotton. Ministry of Agriculture, in its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production wherein it pegged Cotton output at 34 million bales (1 bale= 170 kg) in 2012-13, lower than the record 35.2 million bales in the previous year. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. According to CCI, Cotton arrivals since the beginning of the th season (Oct 2012- Sep 2013) till 14 July is reported at 331.15, down 1.48 percent compared to same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 1027 21520 85.88 89.85

as on Sept 12, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.59 0.00 1.80 -0.78 1.27 4.22 -0.17 1.24 MoM YoY 0.00 #N/A 2.92 22.76 -4.64 17.92 -4.47
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton Aug Fut ICE Cotton Oct 13 Cot look A Index

6.46

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 31-Oct-13 29-Nov-13 31-Dec-13 21520 20530 20540 31-Oct-13 0 -

as on Sept 12, 2013 29-Nov-13 31-Dec-13 -990 0 -980 10 0

Sowing Progress
As per the ministry of agriculture, cotton sowing was reported at 113.12 th la ha on 6 Sept 2013 as against 113.46 la ha last year. In Gujarat, cotton was sown on 26.88 la ha as on 6 September 2013, up by 13.7% compared to the same period last year. In Rajasthan, it was th done on 3 la ha as on 27 August 2013 as against 4.53 la ha last year. In th AP, cotton sowing was undertaken on 20.94 la ha as on 4 September 2013 as against 21.4 la ha last year.
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Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 mn bales last year to 23.5 mn bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the CAB which pegs cotton output for 201213 at 35.2 mn bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 mn bales in 2011-12.
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Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX Oct contract

Global Cotton Updates

ICE cotton futures traded on positive note as the USDA report revised lower the output projection and settled 1.27% higher. However, higher end stock estimate capped sharp gains. Prices gained earlier due to stockpiling from China. The USDA monthly report lowered US cotton output forecast to 12.9 million bales, the lowest in four years. The USDA weekly crop progress report rated good/excellent condition at 47% against 46% last week and reduced the poor/very poor at 20% against 23% last week. ICAC has increased projections for global production and endings stocks for the 2013/14 crop year. As per USDA acreage report, the estimate for U.S. cotton planted acreage is down 17% from 2012, but is up from March 2013 estimates.
Source: Telequote

Outlook
Cotton futures may trade on a mixed note. Depreciation in the Rupee coupled with expected delay in arrivals and from millers as well as yarn exporters may support prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX Oct Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for Sept 13, 2013 Support 1015-1021 21130-21330 Resistance 1032-1036 21700-21900

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Commodities Daily Report

`
Friday | 13 Sept, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Guar complex continued to trade on a bullish note and hit the upper circuit on Thursday on concerns over crop yield. Further holding back of stocks in anticipation of further rise in the prices also supported an upside rally in the complex. Despite of the regulator imposing 10 percent special margin on long side w.e.f from Wednesday, upside remained intact. Special Margin of 10% on the Long side will be imposed on all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Guar Seed and Guar Gum w.e.f beginning of Wednesday Sept 11, 2013. This will be in addition to Special Margins imposed as stated in contract specifications. Dry and hot weather in the Guar areas in Rajasthan and Haryana may have an adverse impact on the yield. Supplies have declined in the last 23 weeks as farmers are not liquidating their stocks at lower levels. All these factors along with overall weakness in the Indian rupee supported an upside movement in the guar complex.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut `/qtl 8040 `/qtl 22974 `/qtl 22380 `/qtl 4.00 -10.43 3.34 Last Prev day 8264 -8.58

as on Sept 12, 2013 % change WoW -0.21 19.47 -0.85 21.56 MoM 62.54 99.01 66.23 94.44 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 8264.3 8040 7730 7720 18-Oct-13 -224.3 0 -

as on Sept 12, 2013 20-Nov-13 -534.3 -310 0 20-Dec-13 -544.3 -320 -10 0 as on Sept 12, 2013 20-Nov-13 -1573.8 -980 0 20-Dec-13 -1453.8 -860 120 0 as on Sept 11, 2013 Stocks as on 10th Sept 50 52 20 Qty in Process 0 0 0

Monsoon and Sowing

Southwest monsoon which arrived early this season is seen retreating from the parts of Haryana and Rajasthan. Also, High temperature is affecting the growth of guar seeds sown after July 15. Almost 75-80 percent area in Rajasthan is rain fed while in Haryana 35-40 % area is dependent on rains. Guar is a rain-fed monsoon crop, which requires 8-15 inch of rain in 3-4 spells. According to Rajasthan Farm Department, Guar seed acreage as on 27 August, 2013 stood at 34.3 lakh hectares compared with 26.58 lakh hectares sown during the same period last year.
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NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 22973.8 22380 21400 21520 18-Oct-13 -593.8 0 -

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Bikaner Sriganganagar Stocks as on 11th Sept 50 52 20 Qty in Process 0 0 0

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guar seed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains has raised hopes of bumper production earlier. However, the current dry spell may adversely impact output going forward. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. However, Fuelled by demand in China and the US, guar gum export from India in April-May rose nearly 12 per cent but realization fell 57 per cent due to lower prices. (Source: Business standard).

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
Guar prices may continue to trade on a positive note on concerns over crop yield amid high temperature in Rajasthan and Haryana. Also, supplies are comparatively lower as farmers are also holding back their stocks expecting better realization in the coming days. However, overall higher output expectations due to higher acreage may cap sharp upside.

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX October contract

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed Oct (NCDEX) Guar Seed Oct (MCX) Guar Gum Oct (NCDEX) Guar Gum Oct (MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Sept 13, 2013 Support 7900-7970 7730-7800 22030-22200 21000-21150 Resistance 8120-8200 7960-8030 22550-22730 21500-21670

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