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RUPEE VOLATILITY:

Reasons for Volatility:Rupee touched all time low 62.03. due to the chances of curbing capital outflow further. Indian Exports have declined & import is not under control. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announced QE which boosted the demand for dollar. SBI purchased dollars in the morning which led to depreciating rupee further. RBI taking various measures to stabilize rupee by curbing liquidity is tampering growth. FDI approval in major sectors. RBI opened 25k-Cr. Window For MFs. CRR Hiked predicted as Bond auction flopped. Liquidity Adjusted Facility (1 per cent of the total deposits to 0.5 per cent) Reserve Bank of India had announced additional liquidity tightening measures to check the rupee slide.(CRR raised indirectly to 99% From 70%) Again increased gold import duty and thinking on sovereign bond issue. RBI limited overseas direct investment by Indian companies to 100% from 400% of their net worth. Also cut overseas remittance by Indians to $75000 from $200000 a year

Portfolio Analysis:-

I diversified my portfolio by purchasing stocks from sectors like Pharma, FMCG both these sectors are called as Defensive Sectors since we see a steady growth. Other sectors are IT, banking, oil & gas. Cipla:- Depreciating rupee acts as positive point for Pharma sector also Cipla acquired Medpro South Africa Ltd. Also increase of net pft of around 5% on q-o-q basis. Closing price on 16th Aug- 414.70 HUL & P&G:- HUL & P&G being FMCG giants. TCS & Mind tree: - India has the best competitive advantage in IT sector. In this month rupee was depreciating so it is positive sign for IT companies. I earned Rs 1688 by selling Mindtree in less than month. Reliance: - Oil & Gas sector is regarded as ever-green sector. Reliance is largest private sector company in India. In this sector, there is lot of Govt interference. So stocks of other PSU does not give the desired return. Reliance has the highest GRM of $ 8.4/barrel. In this month I purchased reliance on 8th July for Rs 868.30 and sold on 7th Aug at Rs 877.80 thereby earning Rs 10 per share. So net profit was Rs 437. SBI: - The banking sector saw a downward trend in this month because of various measures taken by RBI in order to stabilize rupee. So I thought this was best time to purchase bank stocks at low price.

SECTOR ANALYSIS:India's IT industry can be divided into five main components, viz. Software Products, IT services, Engineering and R&D services, ITES/BPO (IT-enabled services/Business Process Outsourcing) and Hardware. Export revenues primarily on project based IT Services continue to drive growth with IT Services accounting for 59% of total revenues followed by BPO and Engineering services at 22% and Software Products at 19%.Labour arbitrage has been the competitive edge of the Indian software sector over the last few years. IT sector reported revenue of $ 87.6 Bn in 2011-12. IT sector directly employs 2.8 million & indirectly it employs 8.9 million. IT contributed 7.5% to GDP. Factors to be considered while analyzing this sector:Order Book: - While analyzing companies in this sector we need to see what is the order book of the companies& order is from which region. Attrition Rate: - Attrition Rate is very important bottom line factor for IT companies as higher attrition rate the cost to companies increases. Dollar Rate: - Dollar rate is also an important factor. If rupee depreciates than it is beneficial to IT companies. Presently IT companies are at edge. MINDTREE:It was founded by Subroto Bagchi Ashok Soota & 7other IT professionals from US. Topline & BottomLine grew @ 28% & 66%. Attrition rate for FY 2012-13 reduced to 13.4% from 18.2%. Whereas for TCS it was 10.6% & Infy was 16.3%. Major of order book comes from US than Europe than India & other from rest of world. In Mindtree there is no debt so financial expenses are very less. PAT 2013 $ 62.5 MN. MPS as on 16th Aug 2013 Rs 993.25. Beta -0.3706

Financial Instruments:FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS: BANKNIFTY: (FUTURES) Bank nifty comprises of 12 most liquid banking stocks listed on NSE. Lot size is 25 It showed bearish trend in past 2 months due to RBIs tightened measures to save rupee from depreciating more. This led to lesser productivity of banks.

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On 16th August: Index near Month Futures 9,450.85 575.55 5.74% Near Month Futures 9,455.00 584.80 5.82% CRUDE OIL:-

Reasons for volatility: Iran nuclear was resolved. Inventories fell by 6.9million.

Protestors at Libya halted oil exports. API corrected oil reserves data which led to decrease in prices. Israel delays peace talks regarding the oil issue. China manufacturing sector slowed down to 11 month low.

Mutual Fund:Birla Sun Life India Gen Next Fund:-

NAV 16th Aug 2013- 29.59 Asset Size 143.89 Cr Sector Allocation as on 31.07.2013

GOLD:-

Near 1 percent fall in the previous session, as two Federal Reserve officials said the U.S. central bank was likely to continue supporting the economy through asset purchases for some time. RBI banned imports on a consignment basis, making it difficult for jewellers to source raw material. The government also raised import duty on the yellow metal to 10 percent. jeweller associations banning sale of coins and bars US employers added 195,000 new jobs to their payrolls last month, exceeding expectations of 165,000, Fed will start winding down its USD 85 billion monthly bond purchases. china's first two newly launched gold exchange-traded funds have raised a total of 1.6 billion yuan in their initial funding round, coming in below expectations due to sliding gold prices and a recent credit-crunch scare. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Monday put further curbs on gold import mandating that banks and nominted agencies should retain 20 percent (or one fifth) of every lot of gold imports in the customs bonded warehouses. They will be able to import further gold only if they release the 75 percent of that stored gold for the purpose of exports. Us GDP growth rate and job reports which were expected positive made gold price down. But during release the they were negative so resulting in fall of prices. Gold extended losses into a third session on Wednesday, falling to a three-week low after strong US trade data and comments by a Federal Reserve official stoked fears that the US central bank could start tapering its stimulus from next month resulting n rupee depreciation to 61.50 . Gold on Friday surged by Rs 1,310 per 10 gram here, the highest in two years, to Rs 31,010 on strong demand from stockists ahead of festive season, after the government increased

import duty on the metal to 10 percent. A sharp fall in Sensex and rupee against dollar and strong global cues also contributed to the upsurge in gold price, which posted the biggest single-day gain after August 19, 2011. Interestingly, the metal had shot up by Rs 1,310 on August 19, 2011 too. Gold has regained Rs 31,000 level after a gap of six months. An alltime high was Rs 32,975 per 10 gram on November 27, 2012, in Delhi bullion market.