Professional Documents
Culture Documents
April,2013
DISCLAIMER
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
The presentation may contain forward-looking statements about future events within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that are not based on historical facts and are not assurances of future results. Such forward-looking statements merely reflect the Companys current views and estimates of f t future economic i circumstances, i t i d t industry conditions, diti company performance and financial results. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forwardlooking statements. Readers are cautioned that these statements are only projections and may differ materially from actual future results or events. Readers are referred to the documents filed by the Company with the SEC, specifically the Companys most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, including, among other things, risks relating to general economic and business conditions, including crude oil and other commodity prices, refining margins and prevailing exchange rates, uncertainties inherent in making estimates of our oil and gas reserves including g g recently y discovered oil and g gas reserves, international and Brazilian political, economic and social developments, receipt of governmental approvals and licenses and our ability to obtain financing. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events or for any other reason. Figures for 2013 on are estimates or targets. All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement, and you should not place reliance on any forward-looking statement contained in this presentation. NON-SEC COMPLIANT OIL AND GAS RESERVES: CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS We present certain data in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources, resources that we are not permitted to present in documents filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under new Subpart 1200 to Regulation S-K because such terms do not qualify as proved, probable or possible reserves under Rule 4-10(a) of Regulation S X S-X.
D Downstream t
12 refineries (Brazil) 2.0 mm bpd refining capacity Oil products sales in Brazil: 2,285 Kbpd Oil products output in Brazil:
Distribution i ib i
7,641 service stations 38,1% of market share 20% share of service stations
International
24 countries 0.7 Bn boe of 1P (SPE) 243 th. boed production 231 th. bpd refining capacity
Biofuels i f l
3 Biodiesel Plants Ethanol: opening new markets Largest domestic producer of biodiesel 3rd producer of ethanol in Brazil
1,997 Kbpd
AdjustedEBITDAperSegment(US$bn)(1)
3.0 2.1 1.1
0.9
2012ProvenReserves(SPECriteria) Brazil
1.6
3,2
2,0
15 73Billionboe 15.73
Shallow Water (0-300m) 8%
1.1
4.1
1.4
11
42,2
Onshore 8%
30.6 19.3
6.9 15,0
Deep Water (300-1,500m) 48% Ultra-Deep Water (> 1,500m) 1 500 ) 36%
2009 (2)
E&P RTM
2010 (3)
G&P
2011(3)
Distribution
2012 (3)
International
(1)ExcludesCorporateandElimination(2)Adjustedaccordingtoaverageexchangerate(3)IFRSUSD
35%
47%
12% 6%
12%
18%
Brazilian Non-Govt Shareholders Non-Voting Voting
Brazilian government, by law, must maintain control. Does so with 61% of voting shares. In BM&FBovespa, BM&FBovespa Petrobras is most actively traded stock, stock by shares and volume. volume 2000: ADRs listing on NYSE (PBR and PBR/A)
*Includes:FederalGovernment,BNDES,BNDESPAR,Sov.WealthFund
Conoco
Oil
BG
Exxon
BP
Shell
BR
Chevron
Total
Conoco
Gas
ENI
Statoil
Oil
231
82
77
73
Exxon
Shell
BP
BR
Conoco
Total
Chevron
ENI
STATOIL CONOCO
Source: Evaluate Energy (barrels per calendar day, considering company % shareholding and including JVs) and Bloomberg Note: Note: Peer Peer companies companies selected selected above above have have a a majority majority of of capital capital traded traded in in the the public public market. market.
Abundantreserves300km awayfromthemarket
13
Financiability Assumptions
Investment Grade rating maintenance No new equity issuance Convergence with International Prices (Oil Products) Divestments in Brazil and, mainly abroad mainly,
PERFORMANCE Management focused on reaching physical and financial targets of each project
CAPITAL DISCIPLINE
PRIORITY
Priority for oil and natural gas exploration & production projects in Brazil
2013
2017
7
27.4% 28%
Financiability Assumptions
Investment Grade Rating maintenance:
4.2%
(US$ 9.9 bi)
E&P
62.3%
(US$ 147.5 bi)
No new equity issuance Convergence with International Prices (Oil Products) Divestments in Brazil and, mainly, abroad
2 2% 2.2%
(US$ 5.1 bi)
1.1%
(US$ 2.9 bi)
0.4%
(US$ 1.0 bi)
1.0%
(US$ 2.3 bi)
1.4%
(US$ 3.2 bi)
E&P
Downstream
G&E
International
Pbio*
Distribuition
ETM*
Other Areas*
8
* Pbio = Petrobras Biofuel ETM = Engineering, Technology and Materials Other Areas = Financial, Strategy and Corporate
Under Implementation
All E&P projects in Brazil and projects of the remaining segments in phase IV
Under Evaluation
Projects for the remaining segments, excluding E&P, currently in phase I, II and III.
4.2% (US$ 9.9 Billion) 2.2% (US$ 5.1 Billion) 1 1% 1.1% (US$ 2.9 Billion) 1.4% 0.4% (US$ 3.2 Billion) 1.0% (US$ 1.0 Billion) (US$ 2.3 Billion)
1.5% (US$ 3.2 Billion) 0.5% (US$ 1.1 Billion) 1.4% (US$ 2.9 Billion) 1.1% 0.5% (US$ 2.3 Billion) (US$ 1.0 Bililon) 73.0% (US$ 21.6 Billion)
E&P
Downstream
G&E
International
Pbio*
Distribuition
ETM*
Other Areas*
* Pbio = Petrobras Biofuel ETM = Engineering, Technology and Materials Other Areas = Financial, Strategy and Corporate
Phase I: Opportunity Identification; Phase II: Conceptual Project; Phase III: Basic Project ; Phase IV: Execution
2013-2017 Business and Management Plan : Project Portfolio Management INVESTMENTS UNDER IMPLEMENTATION
US$ $ 147.5 Billion US$ $ 43.2 Billion E&P Downstream US$ $ 5.9 Billion Gas & Energy US$ $ 3.2 Billion International US$ $ 2.9 Billion Distribution US$ $ 1.1 Billion Biofuels
E&P
10
PROCOP: Focus on OPEX, operating costs of the Company activities Manageable Operating Costs. PRC-Poo: Focus on CAPEX dedicated to Wells construction Investments in Drilling and Completion.
11
PROCOP: Optimization of the Operational Activities Increasing Productivity and Reducing Unit Costs
B fi will Benefits ill come gradually d ll and d will ill llead d to a totall economy of f R$ 32 Billi Billion b by 2016 2016.
Initiatives Example
Other Areas
E&P
Increase of drilling rigs fleet and logistic resources Petrobras currently has 69 floating drilling rigs for well construction and maintenance in Brazil Well construction represents: 32% of Petrobras investments in 2013-2017 BMP 51% of Brazil E&P Investments
13
73% (106.9)
14 14
E&P Investments
2013-2017 Period
Exploration
US$ 24.3 Billion
P d ti Development Production D l t
US$ 106.9 Billion
25% (26.2)
70% (17.1)
32% (34.3)
Aside from Exploration and Production Development, E&P infrastructure investments total US$ 16.3 Billion.
15
Brazil
Discoveries: 53 Offshore: 25 Onshore: 28 Exploratory Success Ratio: 64% Reserves: 15.7 Billion boe RRR: 103% for the 21st consecutive year R/P: 19.3 years
Pre-Salt
Discoveries: 15, of which 8 pioneers Exploratory Success Ratio: 82% Reserves: 300 km in the SE region, 55% of GDP16 16
Reserves and Recoverable Volumes Rapid growth in reserves from discoveries in deep waters
Proved Reserves SPEcriteria
OnshorePhase
30000
ShallowWaterPhase
Deep/UltraDeepWaterPhase
25000
PreSalt:Sapinho PreSalt:Lula&Cernambi
15.73biboe
Million Boe
20000 ParkofWhales,Mexilho 15000 Marlim Garoupa 10000 Guaricema 5000 Carmpolis Namorado Roncador
0
1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Onshore
0300m
3001500m
>1500m
Presalts RecoveryVolume*
Transfer of Rights 17
*Lula/Cernambi,Iara,SapinhoandWhalesPark,rangingfrom6.7to7.9Billionboe
Production Curve in Brazil Oil and LNG Post-Salt, Pre-Salt and Transfer of Rights
2012
Baleia Azul (Cid. Anchieta)
2013
2014
2015
Iracema Norte (Cid. Itagua)
2016
Lula Alto Lula Central Lula Sul (P-66) Franco 1 (P-74) Carioca Lula Norte (P 67) (P-67) Franco SW (P-75)
2017
Lula Ext. Sul (P-68) Lula Oeste (P 69) (P-69) Franco Sul (P-76)
2018
NE de Tupi (P-72) Iara NW (P-71) Deep Waters Sergipe
2019
Jpiter Bonito Franco Leste
2020
Espadarte III Florim
Roncador IV
(P-62) Sapinho Norte (Cid Ilhabela) (Cid. Iracema Sul (Cid. Mangaratiba)
Lula NE Pilot (Cid. Paraty) Thousands s bpd Papa-Terra (P-63) Roncador III (P-55) Norte Pq. Baleias (P-58) Papa-Terra (P-61)
Sul Pq. Baleias Tartaruga Verde Maromba e Mestia Espadarte I Iara Horst (P-70) Parque dos Doces Franco NW (P-77) Carcar Entorno de Iara (P-73)
4,200
6% 19%
2,500 2,022
5%
2 750 2,750
7% 31%
1,980
7%
2,022 ( 2%)
1% 30% 35%
95%
93%
69%
58%
44%
2011
2012
2013
Post-salt
2014
2015
2016
Transfer of Rights
2017
New Discoveries*
2018
2019
2020
Pre-salt (Concession)
(*) Includes new opportunities in blocks where discoveries have already been found
18
NEWPRODUCTIONUNITS 20132014
Newplatformsbuiltdomesticallyandabroadwillcontributetoproduction
Project
Sapinho Pilot FPSO Cid. So Paulo Bana and Piracaba FPSO Cid. Itaja Lula NE Pilot FPSO Cid. Paraty y Papa-Terra P-63 Roncador Module III P-55 Parque das Baleias P-58 Papa-Terra P-61 Roncador Module IV P-62 Sapinho Norte FPSO Cid. Ilhabela Lula - Iracema Sul FPSO Cid. Mangaratiba
Capacity
120 kbpd 80 kbpd 120 kbpd 140 kbpd 180 kbpd 180 kbpd
TLWP load out to P-63
1st
Oil
Hull
Cosco Shipyard China Jurong Cingapura Keppel Shipyard Cingapura g p Cosco Shipyard China EAS Brasil Queirz Galvo Rio Grande Floatec Brasfels Camargo Corra/IESA EAS QGOG/SBM China Cosco Shipyard China
L l Content Local C t t
Bid Round Commit. Target
01/05/2013 02/16/2013 05/28/2013 07/15/2013 09/30/2013 11/30/2013 12/31/2013 Mar/2014 Sep/2014 Nov/2014
2 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 2
65% 81% 65% 65% 65% 63% 65% 63% 65% 65%
*Note:FPSOCid.XX=Leased/PXX=Owned
19
PROJECT INSTALLATION
Petrobras has a strong track record of platforms installation per year
2006-2012 Petrobras has installed, on average, 5 platforms per year from 2006 to 2011. Ramp up of these units was delayed due to limited availability of drilling rigs2: (2006: 2, 2011: 26) 2013-2016 Between 2013 and 2016 we expect to install an average of 4 units per year. Petrobras will have around 40 drilling rigs available during the next 5 years.
7
Manati 8MMm/d
5
PPERPhase1 2.7MMm/d FPSO CAPIXABA 100mbpd SEILLEAN GOLFINHO 30mbpd P34JUBARTE 60mbpd
P54 180mbpd
5
FPSOCidadede AngradosReis 100bpd FPSOCapixaba (reallocation) 100bpd FPSOCidadede Santos 10MMm/d P57 180mbpd SS11 TIRO/SIDON 20mbpd
5
Cid.Paraty 120mbpd
P52 180mbpd FPSOCIDADE DEVITRIA 100mbpd FPSO PIRANEMA 30mbpd FSOCid.De Maca
P61&P63 140mbpd
PRA1
2
Mexilhao 15MMm/d
P55 180mbpd
1
Cid.Anchieta 100mbpd
Cid.SoPaulo 120mbpd
P50 180mbpd
FPSOCid.RJ 100mbpd
P56 100mbpd
Cid.Itaja j 80mbpd
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
1 - Does not include installation of Extended Well Tests / 2 Over 2,000 meters waterdepth
20
OPERATIONALEFFICIENCY
PROEF ProgramtorecoverandmaintainoperationalefficiencyinCamposBasin
ImproveOperationalUnit EfficiencyLevels ReachSustainableLevelsof OperationalEfficiency Improveproduction systemsintegrity ReduceRiskofLossof OperationalEfficiency
UO-BC
PROEF GOALS
UO-RIO
Increasethereliabilitytodeliver productiontargetsofBP201216
100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65
2009 96 94 92 88
96 95 90
PROEF Targets
94 93 87 85 81 76 71 72 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 93 92 88 93 94 94 94
90
80
2010
2011
E&P Distribution of Revenues Stable concession terms have led to higher income per barrel
Breakdownofrealizationp pricep perboe p producedinBrazil
US$/boe realization price
120
111
112
100%
100
25%
79
80
$31 $ $30
80%
23%
31%
33%
31%
62
60
$13 $12 $22 $20 $20
60%
21% 13%
21%
21%
40
40%
$15
16% 22%
16%
20
$7 $11
$16 $ $14
20%
17%
18% 14%
17% 15%
$9
0%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2009
2010
2011
2012
Lifting Cost
Income Tax
Production Tax
Net Income
Brent
*Othersincludetaxexpenses,R&D,SG&A
22 22
E&PPROFITABILITY
Productionofoil,notgas,generateshighrealizationprice
Net Production Income (US$/boe)
35 30 25 20 15 5 10 5 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*
Peers
Petrobras
KeyAssumptions:
150,000 150 000bpdFPSOs Productionof500MMbarrels Rampup inlinewithindustry Historicdeclinerate Oilvalue=95%Brent Doesnotincludeexplorationand acquisitioncosts
US$/bbl
(expectedscenario)
Case3 US$12/boeCapex/US$5/boeOpexwithoutSpecialInterest(suchasTransferofRights)
The graph illustrates the costbenefit ratio of a standard production development in Brazil, using assumptions based on previous experiences
24
Pre-Salt Production is a Reality Production reached 300 thousand barrels of oil per day in Feb/20/2013
Pre-Salt Production Data
Oil Production reached 300 kbpd (of which 249 kbpd is Petrobras stake), 43% in Santos Basin and 57% in Campos p Basin; This level was reached with only 17 producing wells, 6 in Santos Basin and 11 in Campos Basin; Level reached only 7 years after discovery: Campos C B i 11 years Basin: US Gulf of Mexico: 17 years North Sea: 9 years Production of 1 million bpd operated by Petrobras will be reached by 2017 and the 2.1 million bpd threshold will be reached by 2020. Petrobras Pre-salt productions share: from 5% in 2011 (100.3 (100 3 kbpd) to 6.9% 6 9% in 2012 (136.4 (136 4 kbpd). kbpd)
25
Drilling Rigs Availability Necessity met with imported and domestic units
Drilling Rigs: Imported vs. Domestic
NumberofDrilling N gRigs (W WaterDepth>2.0 000m)
42
8
42
9 8
42
6 17
42
8
42 2
40 26 5
2007
41
42
42
23 34 25 19 11
2019
31
7
2008
8
2009
16
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
9
2020
2018
Imported Rigs
28 new domestic drilling rigs from 2016 on: Local Content between 55% and 65% Midtermneedsfordrillingrigsarenowlargelysatisfied.Futureintermediatedemandwillbe limitedtospecificsituationsandneeds. Startingin2016,Brazilianbuiltrigsexpectedtobeginreplacinginternationallybuiltfleetas theircontractsexpire(andsubjecttototalfleetneeds). Ifforanyreasonthedomesticrigsarenotcompletedasscheduled,Petrobrashasthepossibilty ofrenewingsomeorallofexpiringleases.
26
Downstream Investments
Projects Under Implementation US$ 43.2 billion
21% (9.2) 45% (19.4) 11% (4.9) 9% (3.7)
2013-2017 HIGHLIGHTS
1% (0.3)
6% (2,8)
64% (13.8)
7% ( ) (1.5)
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
ProjectsUnderEvaluation
Implementation of projects depends mainly on: a Alignment of new refineries costs to a. international standards; b. Regulatory requirements; c Resources Availability (Financiability); c. d. Competition for financial capacity;
28
End of the first investment cycle in Quality RNEST and 1st Phase of COMPERJ coming online New refineries under evaluation (Phase I)
Integration and Balance Construction of new refineries intended to meet Brazilian demand
INTEGRATION BETWEEN OIL PRODUCTION, REFINING CAPACITY AND DOMESTIC MARKET
Thousbpd
PREMIUM I (2nd phase) 300,000 bpd Oct/2020 COMPERJ (2nd phase) 300 000 bpd 300,000 Jan/2018
4,200
3,472 3,380
2,500
2,320
PREMIUM II 300,000 bpd Dec/2017
2,320
1,814
2,004
1,798
2,147
181
ProjectsUnderImplementation
ProjectsUnderEvaluation
*2020TotalCrudeOilProcessedmayvarydependingonProjectsUnderEvaluation
29 29
Parity: Seeking convergence with International Prices 9 months: +21.9% in Diesel and +14.9% in Gasoline
Seeking convergence with international prices. prices In the last 9 months: 4 Diesel price readjustments, totaling +21.9%, and 2 Gasoline readjustments (+14.9%).
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 900
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Prices (R$/bbl)
Ja an/09
Ja an/10
Ja an/11
Ja an/12
Ja an/13
No ov/08
(*) considers Diesel, Gasoline, LPG, Jet Fuel and Fuel Oil. (**) USGC price with domestic market prices.
Ma ar/13 30
19.2
3.2 1.6 2.0
20.1
15.5 11.0
**
42.0
6.9 15.6
2009
2010
2011
2012
2009
2010
2011
2012
E&P
RTM
G&P
Distribution
International
31
(*)USGAAP(**)IFRS(***)Adjustedaccordingaverageexchangerate.ExcludesCorporateandElimination.
Trade Balance
The image part with relationship ID rId7 was not found in the file.
Rapid demand growth in the last 4 years has led to a shift in the trade balance
2009
(thous.bpd)
+24%
2012
(thous.bpd)
Thousand m m
779 705
227
549
152
548
433 184
2,000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
GasolineSales +3%
+65%
478
397
Thousand m
156
75 81
364
346 18
Exports
Imports
Balance
Exports
Imports 249
1,000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Balance
231
Oil
OilProducts
32
Gasoline and Diesel International Prices Taxes account for significant share of pump price in Brazil
Gasoline Retail Prices
2012 Average
The image part with relationship ID rId7 was not found in the file.
Brazil
USA
Chile
China
Japan
Germany
Brazil
USA
Chile
China
Japan
Germany
RefineryGatePrice
Anhydrous Alcohol
Taxation
DisttributionMargin
Therefinerygatepriceforgasolineiscurrently37%oftheretailpricewhilefor dieselitis61%
33
2013-2017 HIGHLIGHTS
Conversion of Natural Gas into fertilizers and other gas chemical products:
UFN III at Trs Lagoas (Mato Grosso do Sul)
12% (0.5)
Natural gas processing and transportation: NGPU Cabinas (Rio de Janeiro) Electric energy generation: Thermal Power Plant Baixada Fluminense (Rio de
Janeiro)
34% (1.4)
51% (2.0)
LNG Regasification: Bahia Terminal (Bahia) Units in Design Phase: UFN IV (Esprito Santo) and UFN V (Minas Gerais)
35
Financial Considerations
Financial Planning Assumptions Financing analysis only incorporates projects under implementation
No equity issuance Investment grade maintenance
37
246.9
39.8
Additional financing needs will be funded exclusively through new debt. No equity issuance is envisaged. Free cash flow, before dividends, after 2015.
Net borrowing needs 50% below previous Plan due to: 2017 production, versus 2012, leading to higher operating cash flows Declining downstream investments g Brent p prices ( (US$ 100 vs US$ 90 in the Long-term previous Plan) and long-term F/X rate (R$ 1.85 vs R$ 1.73)
38
Fontes
Usos
Divestments and restructurings Cash utilization Third-party Third party resources (Debt) Operating cash flow (after dividends) Investments Amortization
Leverage
Leverage
BMP Target (< 35%)
Net Debt/EBITDA
BMP Target (< 2,5x)
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Declining leverage, within the Companys self-imposed limits Net Debt/EBITDA surpasses limit at some points in time, during the Plan period
39
Capex and Cash Flow Free cash flow turns positive with completion of downstream projects
Capex vs. Operating Cash Flow
US$MM 50000
40000 30000 20000 10000 0
27,888 45,078 Approx. 42,949 , $39billion billi
43,164
OCF2012 E&P
Capex2010 Downstream
Capex2011
Capex2012
Capex2017 Others h
Gas& Energy
Capital Structure
Net Debt/EBITDA 5 4 3 2 1 0 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1.66 1.61 2.46 2.42 2.77 2 24% 24% 28% 28% Net Debt/Net Capitalization1 30% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20%
R$ Billion Short-term Debt Long-term Debt Total Debt ()C (-) Cash h and d Cash C h Equivalents E i l t 3 = Net Debt US$ Billion Net Debt
1) 2) 3) 4)
12/31/11 19.0 136.6 155.6 52 5 52.5 103.0 54 9 54.9 The devaluation of the Real (9%4) also increased net debt. Lower operating cash flow and higher capex resulted in net debt increase.
Net Debt / (Net Debt + Shareholders Equity) Refers to the adjusted EBITDA which excludes equity income and impairment. Includes tradable securities maturing in more than 90 days Period-end commercial selling rate for U.S. dollar
41
A- / A3 BBB+ / Baa1 BBB / Baa2 BBB- / Baa3 BB+ / Ba1 BB BB / Ba2 BB- / Ba3 B+/ B1 B/ B2
Investment grade
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
S&P
2008
Fit h Fitch
2009
2010
2011
2012
M d Moodys
42
Information: Investor Relations +55 21 3224-1510 petroinvest@petrobras.com.br investors@petrobras com investors@petrobras.com www.petrobras.com.br/ir
43