Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com. ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Melbourne, FL.

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October 2, 2013 Another multi-year high for Nasdaq and all time high for Russell 2000.

The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note remains below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 2.742% after setting a low for the move at 2.586% on Monday, as the decline in yield remains overdone on its daily chart. The weekly chart favors lower yields with a close this week below its fiveweek modified moving average (MMA) at 2.699% with the 200-week SMA at 2.527% not yet tested. The yield on the 30-Year bond remains below its 50-day SMA at 3.756% after setting a post-FOMC low at 3.642% on Sept. 25. The weekly chart shows that the bond yield tested its 200-week SMA at 3.637% last week with the yield just below its five-week MMA at 3.725. After continuing to fail at its 50-day SMA at $1344.7 the Troy ounce, Gold is back below $1300 trading to a Tuesday low at $1290.5 as the daily chart shifts to negative. The weekly chart stays negative if Fridays close is below the five-week MMA at $1333.2 with the 200-week SMA at $1475.2. Crude oil remains below its 50-day SMA at $106.11 with the 200-day SMA at $97.73 on an oversold daily chart. The weekly chart remains negative with the five-week MMA at $104.72 and the 200-week SMA at $91.05. The euro vs. the dollar is above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $1.3333 and 1.3173 with the February high at $1.3709 an overbought daily chart. The weekly chart profile remains positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at 1.3381 and the 200-week SMA at 1.3339. 10-Year Note (2.643) Weekly and semiannual value levels are 2.907 and 3.227 with a monthly pivot at 2.603, and daily, annual, quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2.563, 2.476, 2.252 and 1.981. Comex Gold ($1287.6) Daily and monthly value levels are $1271.9 and $1145.2 with weekly, quarterly and annual risky levels at $1401.6, $1435.6, $1599.9 and $1852.1. Nymex Crude Oil ($101.78) Monthly and daily value levels are $99.84 and $99.26 with weekly, semiannual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $105.87, $109.84, $114.36 and $115.23. The Euro (1.3529) Annual, quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 1.3257, 1.2805, 1.2782, 1.2756 and 1.2477 with daily and weekly pivots at 1.3493 and 1.3451 and my annual risky at 1.4295. The Dow Industrial Average is below its 50-day SMA at 15,273 with the other major averages above their 50-day SMAs at 1679.97 S&P 500, 3675 Nasdaq, 6492 Dow Transports and 1047.89 Russell 2000. The weekly charts are mixed, which is why the September highs cannot be confirmed as cycle highs.

The weekly charts for the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 have remained positive buy overbought despite the negative profiles among the other major averages. The five-week MMAs are 15,225 Dow Industrials, 1677.9 S&P 500, 3684 Nasdaq, 6502 Dow Transports and 1047.19 Russell 2000. If the Nasdaq ends the week above 3759 the upside potential is to monthly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 15,932 / 16,490 / 16,775 Dow Industrials, 1746.4 / 1743.5 / 1853.8 S&P 500, 3830 / 4025 Nasdaq, 6811 / 7104 / 7205 Dow Transports and 1092.46 / 1089.42 / 1163.21 Russell 2000. Given a weekly close below 3759 on the Nasdaq, stocks become vulnerable towards annual value levels at 12,696 Dow Industrials, 1348.3 S&P 500, 2806 Nasdaq, 5469 Dow Transports, and 809.54 Russell 2000. Daily Dow: (15,192) Daily, weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 14,932, 14,696, 14,724 and 12,696 with the Sept. 18 all time high at 15,709.59, and monthly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 15,932, 16,490 and 16,775. S&P 500 (1695.0) Daily, weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 1669.6, 1641.5, 1606.9, 1400.7 and 1348.3 with the Sept. 19 all time high at 1729.86, and semiannual, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 1743.5, 1746.4 and 1853.8. NASDAQ (3818) Semiannual, weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 3759, 3695, 3668 and 2806 with a daily pivot at 3776, the Oct. 1 multi-year high at 3817.98, and monthly and quarterly risky level at 3830 and 4025. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (3253) Daily, weekly and annual value levels are 3220, 3165 and 2463 with the Oct. 1 multi-year high at 3254.33, a monthly pivot at 3254, and semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 3304 and 3477. Dow Transports (6672) Daily, weekly and annual value levels are 6556, 6318, 5925 and 5469 with the Sept. 20 all time high at 6754.81, and monthly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 6811, 7104 and 7205. Russell 2000 (1087.43) Daily, weekly and annual value levels are 1079.03, 1034.93 and 809.54 with the Oct. 1 all time high at 1087.78, and semiannual, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 1089.42, 1092.46 and 1163.21. The SOX (495.77) Daily, weekly and annual value levels are 491.02, 470.81 and 338.03 with the Sept. 19 high at 500.24, and monthly, quarterly and semiannual risky level at 512.13, 514.87 and 533.56. Dow Utilities: (484.16) Daily and weekly value levels at 478.55 and 457.20 with monthly, quarterly, semiannual and annual risky levels at 512.80, 520.55, 523.33 and 540.37. To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.