Corn Belt/Plains escape freeze Dry and warm next 5-7 days Next storm SD late Thursday

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60s, 70sand 80s F to rule

As storm Atlas and its associated front exits the country in the next 48 hours, dry and warm conditions will return to the Plains, Corn Belt and South, giving improved planting conditions, warmth for wheat emergence and drying for harvest. Except for isolated areas...the Corn Belt has yet to see a killing freeze, and none is seen for the week ahead. The next Plains storm arrives late Thursday reaching the same areas of the Dakotas that suered from storm Atlas and 1-3 feet of snow.

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The soggiest areas left by Storm Atlas stretch across SC ND into W SD, E NE, SE MN and SW WI. Outside of these areas brief harvest and planting delays will now be seen in a few other wet areas in SW IA, NE KS, W OK (beneficial?), NW IL, C WI, and parts of MI, IN, OH, KY and TN.

Severe weather in the form of flooding, snow, frost, wind and hail has also caused localized crop damage in ND, SD, CO, KS, NE, OK, MN, IA, IL, IN and MO in the past 4 days (as of Sunday afternoon...see following maps).

Todays weather maps

Allen Motew has been an expert weather analyst for more than 35 years. With a Seal of Approval for Broadcasters from the American Meteorological Society, Allen specializes in global weather prediction, synoptic scale and mesonet analysis, and severe weather events. He is trained in forecasting hurricanes, tropical cyclones and international weather events for government and private industry interests from around the globe. A Chicago native, Allen broadcasts his local, domestic and international commodity weather forecasts from the Chicago Board of Trade.

Saturdays Lows (below 28F dashed below 20F circled)

Sundays Lows (below 28F circled)

Storm Atlas brought some freezing weather over the High Plains on Saturday and Sunday mornings. Saturday the coldest air was in E MT and W ND at 16-20F, while below 28F was recorded in mostly the higher elevations of WY, CO, W SD. Sunday morning conditions moderated for many, with freezing temps again limited to the High Plains from W ND to E CO and N NM. The lowest in TX , OK and KS was 3337F. Even 99% of NE and SD escaped the crop any damaging cold on Sunday morning. Severe weather with storm Atlas over the past 4 days...as of noon Sunday. Areas of snow (blue), flooding, strong winds, rain and hail are shown (reds, orange, pinks).

Storm Atlas caused widespread severe weather with 1-3 feet of snow in WY, CO, SD and 4-12 inches in SW ND. As of noon Sunday, strong winds and hail were seen in NE, KS, OK, IA, MO and IL. The heaviest rains over the past 4 days fell in C SD, SE ND, E NE, NE and W IA, SE MN, WI, N MI, IL, KY, IN, OH and TN (circled).

Most of the Corn Belt has yet to see a freeze. Today, even snow cover ed SD and ND warmed to the 50s and 60s with 70s common across KS, CO, OK, TX ...even parts of MT! The next 5 days will be warmer than normal across the Plains and Corn Belt with the greatest warm anomalies expected from C Canada to W Texas (below).

Sunday 2pm temps

Temp Anomalies next 5 days Over the next 7 days...GFS modeling has early week warming and the heaviest rains late in the week into the northern High Plains. Rains linger early in the week over OH, KY, and parts of the E and SE. Even the wheat areas of the Southern Plains will be warm and dry, then potentially see more rainfall very late in the week (Saturday) leaving 0.25-1.25 inches with the next front.

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Most of the week will be dr y over the Plains and Corn Belt. The next Plains storm arrives Thursday in the north, returning moisture (rain?) to the Dakotas soggiest western areas. The associated cool front will bring additional moisture from MN, WI and MI to KS, OK, TX, MO and AR next weekend and a second surge early in week #2...around Oct 1516.