Marina Kalashnikova’s Warning to the West

by J. R. Nyquist http://geopolitical.us

Weekly Column Published: 07.17.2009

Meet Marina Kalashnikova: a Moscow-based historian, researcher and journalist.

Last August she criticized foreign “experts” for suggesting that a conflict with Moscow will
not happen because Russia’s elite is too closely associated with the West. According to
Kalashnikova, “The West does not care to wake from the dream of its wishful thinking, even
when Moscow turns to … reanimating Stalin’s cult of personality together with the ideology
of the Cheka [i.e., the secret police].”

I’m afraid that Marina Kalashnikova is right. The West has been dreaming, and the West will
suffer the consequences. If the Kremlin likes Stalin, then there will be trouble. If KGB
officers have established a sophisticated form of dictatorship in Russia, they have done so
for a reason. We should remind our politicians, with their short memories, that Stalin and
his secret police did not run a Sunday school.

Furthermore, the recent trail of blood and radiation leading back to the Kremlin is like a
finger pointing to the greatest danger of our time – nixed from the news media’s prattle of
the hour.

(A retired KGB officer recently told me that “nobody is easier to buy than a Western
journalist.”)

Russia has built an alliance of dictators, what Kalashnikova calls an “alliance of the most
unbridled forces and regimes.” Extremists of all kinds serve the purpose of breaking the
peace, damaging Western economies, and setting the stage for a global revolution in which
the balance of power shifts from the United States and the West to the Kremlin and its
Chinese allies.

“Among the ideas that animate general staff analysts in the Kremlin, there is the idea of
diffusion,” says Kalashnikova, “It is not that the Kremlin should strive for territorial
expansion and the dissemination of its [political] model.

The critical thing is power and the fulcrum of an overall strategic context. In that case, even
if the Americans appear influential in the post-Soviet countries, Moscow remains in charge.
The [Russian] General Staff therefore has successfully expanded Moscow’s position beyond
and above the old Soviet position in Africa and Latin America.” What prevails, she says, is
Moscow’s “assertiveness and determination without fear of a reaction from the West.”

In other words, the West has already been outmaneuvered. The KGB and the Russian
General Staff have taken our measure, and they are laughing at us. Our leaders do not
realize the sophistication of their enemy.

They cannot see or understand what is happening. They blink, they turn away, continuing to
use concepts gifted to them long ago by Soviet agents of influence. As a nation we are
confused and disoriented, believing that the world is beholden to the West’s money power –
and therefore, peace can be purchased.

“The Kremlin has activated a network of extremists in the Third World,” wrote Kalashnikova.
“[At the same time] Russia has managed to shake off nearly all international conventions
restricting the expansion of its military power.” In this situation, the only counter to Russian
power is American power.

Yet the American president is preparing to surrender that power in a series of arms control
agreements that will leave the United States vulnerable to a first strike. Placing this in
context, nuclear weapons are ultimate weapons, so that the West’s superiority in
conventional weapons is therefore meaningless. Whoever gains strategic nuclear supremacy
will rule the world; and the Russian strategic rocket forces are in place, ready to launch,
while America’s nuclear forces are rotting from neglect.

The Russian historian sees that the West relies on the greed of Russia’s elite to keep the
Kremlin in line. But this is a foolish conceit. Mao Zedong said that political power “flows
from the barrel of a gun.” Therefore, the Kremlin’s logic is ironclad: Let the West keep its
worthless currency. Moscow will have weapons, and in the end Moscow and its allies will
control everything.

The liberal may believe that protests and appeals to humanity are the ultimate trump cards.
The financiers may believe that money makes the world go ‘round. Let them try to stop a
salvo of ICBMs with liberal sentiment and cash. As far as the laws of physics are concerned,
their favored instruments cannot stop a single missile.

According to Kalashnikova, “It is clear that the [Kremlin] regime has no restraint and will
commit any crime, break any rule, surpass any benchmark in order to consolidate its
already illegitimate power….”

Even the old KGB chief, Vladimir Kryuchkov, was appalled: “Putin and others have to
answer for what they are doing today to the country,” he said. But the West sleeps. The
West doesn’t want to hear about the danger that rises in the East – from the Kremlin and its
Chinese allies. As Kalashnikova points out, the warnings of Russian observers like Viktor
Suvorov and Vladimir Bukovsky have been almost totally ignored.

Western chauvinism is deep-rooted, and the Westerner takes his military and economic
superiority for granted. He laughs at the idea that “the Russians are coming.” But the joke
is on America. The Kremlin’s psychological advantage is vital and immediate, and extends
into the political domain. This is significant because the outcome of every war is pre-
determined by the political process leading up to the war.

Kalashnikova laments that Suvorov and Bukovsky remain largely unknown, “and are even
hated by the Western establishment … [which] avoids uncomfortable truths about the world
and themselves, especially when the truth comes from Russian critics.” Do the Americans
have sense? Are they serious people? No, said Suvorov more than two decades ago. No,
says Kalashnikova today. The Russian generals are getting ready. They are consolidating
their influence because the coming war requires it.

“The NATO idea of deterrence means absolutely nothing to the Russian generals,” wrote
Kalashnikova. “Unlike their Western counterparts, they are not afraid of big military and
civilian losses. This was true in the time of Stalin. Losses do not affect the popularity of
Kremlin rulers….” The philosopher Nietzsche once wrote that sacrificing people for a state or
an idea makes that state or idea all the more precious to those who have made the
sacrifice. Such is human psychology, yesterday, today and tomorrow.

“The strategic balance,” warned Kalashnikova, “has by and large never worked.” Standing
outside the logic of nuclear deterrence, Kremlin leaders have modernized their nuclear
bunkers. They are prepared to survive. “The current Russian military is not weaker than the
USSR,” she says, “and in some areas it surpasses the Soviet military.” – This from a writer
who has personally interviewed Russian generals, spy chiefs and statesmen.

She goes on to say that after 9/11 Russia’s terrorist allies can be realistically assumed to
play a key role in the strategic equation. And then she fatefully quotes a NATO functionary
who spoke about the role of al Qaeda and Bin Laden as follows: “This [9/11 attack] is
beyond their intellectual capabilities.” Insights of this kind have been known to trigger
“polonium reactions,” as in the case of former FSB Lt. Col. Alexander Litvinenko – who
publicly declared that Vladimir Putin was the master terrorist behind al Qaeda.

And here is where the plot thickens. When Marina Kalashnikova presented her analysis to
Russian and Ukrainian readers on August 26, 2008, she annoyed the regime and made
herself a target of the Russian secret police. Her Moscow residence was broken into. Private
papers were stolen.

Threats were made. And last, but not least, she was forcibly incarcerated in a psychiatric
clinic for 35 days. “I am completely healthy,” Kalashnikova told me during a telephone
interview on Sunday.“It was absolutely political … and not medical at all.”

And what excuse did they offer for breaking the door locks and grabbing her? “I was
allegedly aggressive,” she explained, “even though I was staying behind the door of my own
home.”

What she had done, of course, was reveal the hostile intentions of the Russian government
toward the United States. “Just yesterday,” she explained, “I got some threats that they
would get me back to the clinic because I did not fulfill the agreement of not interfering in
political subjects here.

I am forbidden to do journalism and politics and interviewing and everything. So I can only
arrange everyday life. My endeavors, and my active communication with the West regarding
this psychiatric imprisonment [is forbidden]. I feel completely insecure here. It is no joke. It
is no exaggeration.

The reality is even more awful and criminal. I try not to frighten people. The American
people are too comfortable. I have underestimated and under-described the situation. It is
very dangerous. The situation needs their urgent sorting out.”
And what situation is she talking about?

“I think that Russia has always had America as the enemy,” Kalashnikova told me, “and it
remains in such a capacity. I think that all preparations that Russia makes are military
preparations, and preparations for war. I talked three times during recent days with … a
former politician and party functionary and bright diplomat … and he confirmed that they
expect war.”

I hope that Marina Kalashnikova is safe, and that Americans will appreciate her courage,
heed her warnings, and prevent the outbreak of war through care and vigilance. Marina
gave me permission to tell her story and relate her words to those who are sleeping in the
West. She needs our help, and she deserves it.
Copyright © 2009 Jeffrey R. Nyquist

--------------------------------------------------

Article by Marina Kalashnikova:

http://obozrevatel.com/news/2008/8/26/255012.htm

http://docs.google.com/View?docid=dgqjg74h_63fz7n36gz

http://docs.google.com/View?docid=dgqjg74h_64kk4jhh67

Translated from russian with a help of google.com/translate

The dollar threshold is not stopping the Russian Drang

For years we witnessed a "designer thinking" applied by foreign observers who count
themselves experts kremlenologists :

«On the conflict of Moscow : it will not happen. Not like in the Soviet Union - Russia's top
elite is too closely associated with the West ».

For a carrot and stick approach:

while the Kremlin is consistently edifying and applying extreme measures against the
media, local regions, non-governmental organizations (even including the most
authoritative Western structures), Western business leaders for refusing to fully play by its
rules (eg, «British Petroleum»).

West did not dare to wake up from the wishful thinking dream even

when Moscow turned to the practice of state terror (the murder of Litvinenko and
Yandarbiev),

reanimated cult of STALIN personality and ideology of police state and KGB, reversing timid
attempts of destalinization in the 1990.

Under the assurances «it will never get to the war» Moscow launched an international
expansion and build the alliance of the most unbridled forces and regimes.

Kremlin reactivated a network of extremists in the «Third World», the network was
established in times of USSR.

Russia has managed to shed itself of almost all international restrictions on military security.
And started to pillar resources in Arctic and other regions of the planet.

Since the beginning of Russian aggression against Georgia, a foreign expert and political
community fell into confusion: «Where is the limit to "drang"( germ.: offensive) by Kremlin
and a rational explanation for it?».

It refers Search modern European standards, or at least «pragmatism», which is attributed

to the Chinese autocracy.

The last refuge of well-commentator of Moscow is a passion for the calculation of the
Russian elite to greed: «They want a lot of money, and it will make them keep to the right».

Meanwhile, in the time of the Putin government a very specific russian uniqueness became
so apparent been so infinitely far away from both Europe and pragmatism:

Kremlin recklessly and easily sheds the blood of their own nationals to «save Russia», and
«to raise from the knees».

Life of the fellow compatriots, and their fundamental rights hold an unprecedentedly low in
the scale of values of KREMLINs

We see this firm pattern in how submarine «Kursk» drowned, how hostages were "freed"
at Dubrovka and in Beslan, in the multiplying losses in Chechnya, where Russia formally
recognized `only` 180 thousand deaths.

It became clear that the regime has absolutely no restraint to commit any crime any break
any rules and benchmarks in order to consolidate its already illegitimate power and continue
to multiply personal wealth acquired illegitimately.

From all this, even the latest sovetskie apparatchiks would never even dream about such.

Former KGB chief Vladimir Kryuchkov, shortly before his death, pointing to domestic terror
and catastrophic social segregation in Russia, told us:
«Putin and others have to answer for what they are doing today in the country».

However, many foreigners have been inclined to write off these challenges,
keeping in mind the difficulties of the post-empire transformation and the need to bring
order to the country.

Yes, and why should the West care about Russian inhabitants if Russians themselves are
happy with this regime and this leadership ?

For all the acceptable damage

Of course, Western governments are not required to take the account of bodies and the
poor of Russia with the same care as at home. But put up with Moscow makes systematic
decimation ( Romans used to kill every 10th in population in the conquered territories )
their own people they should not either morally, or with an international legal point of view.

And even more so it was impossible to replicate the Kremlin deliberate lies on violent
deaths. When the magnitude of losses in Chechnya were officially recognized and publicly
announced, credible Imperial War Museum in London is still presenting in his department of
the regional conflicts data flat Moscow propaganda: 3 thousand people.

Advanced Russian and Western thinkers Viktor Suvorov and Vladimir Bukovsky thought:
it is in deep routed chauvinism that distorts reaction even from educated Western audience
to the Russian reality.

Therefore, both these writers are not much known in modern history, and are even hated by
western establishment so to speak. The latter avoids uncomfortable truths about the world
and themselves. Especially when the truth comes from the Russian critics.

However, indifference to the right of subjects to life is the key resource of the Russian
military strategy. Therefore, to the NATO arguments of the power of deterrence mean
absolutely nothing to Russian generals :

Unlike western counterparts, they are not afraid of big losses of of military force
and civilian population.

So it was there since the times of Stalin.

The popularity of the kremlin rulers, according to polls, does not fall so then their bloody
methods are acceptable to them.

Strategic balance, which has tried to build a rivalry with the West in the Soviet Union, by
and large has never worked.

For NATO generals it still remains unclear which what constitutes «unacceptable damage»
to Kremlin .

The ratios of losses during the Second World War, as well as the barbaric attitude of the
Soviet authorities for their injuries and disabilities clearly proved that no standard criteria
and rates here are valid.

But it was known that the Soviet top leaders built for themselves a few fairly-tale
level sized underground cities in different parts of the country, where they could
sit for months, as long as radiation from the Earth's surface after thermonuclear
war would evaporate into space.

These super bunkers were modernized in recent years with only one objective : to
strengthen the confidence in their own future of the current leadership of KREMLIN.
The military took power at home, with neighbors and allies

The current Russian military is not weaker than the USSR, and in some it even beats soviet
military.

Strategic nuclear arsenal deployed on the ground.

After a massive raid of Islamist suicide bombers on the United States in

September 2001, you can assume that adjacent to the circle of allies of Moscow
terrorist formation also acquired strategic weight.

A couple of days after terror attack on 9-11-2001, at NATO headquarters in

Brussels, where I continuously walked different meetings, we were able to talk to
a «real» functionaries.

One spoke about the role of «Al-Qaeda» and about Bin Laden: «This is - beyond
their intellectual capabilities».

Conventional forces are available to Kremlin to keep European neighbors under

threat of attack.

In doing so, referring to the obvious superiority of conventional force of the whole
NATO alliance, Moscow is threatening with first nuclear strike.

At the same time, it remains the world leader in the number of non-strategic
nuclear warheads.

Multiplied by the unpredictable behavior of Russian authorities, and confusion with personal
control of the «red button», all this makes the rose from the ruins of «evil banana
republic» worse then old «evil empire».

The state machine of Russia, although still inferior to the Soviet totalitarian control of the
large territorial scope, but is already centralized to the same level as USSR was.

The power structure is very consolidated. Plus Russia is completely free from the risk of split
in the «Union of republics».

There is one major difference. After the Chechen wars, the real power in Russia has been
redistributed in favor of military groups of generals who may even held Kremlin hostage
and manipulate policies to their benefits.

Moreover, in the Caucasus and in other conflict zones of the Russian military has learned
the practical political strategies, becoming active, and sometimes powerful behind-the-
scenes actors in the entire system of Russian authorities, including the economy, mass
media, propaganda. That in this country had never happened before.
 Soviet military has never ruled the country to this extend.

Stalin restrained and regulate them in his own way. Central Committee and the KGB are
more or less kept in the hands of the military through the branched control.

The USSR was not a military dictatorship. What is happening now is more threatening the
USSR was and actors are extremely cunning.

While the Ukrainian public with devotion absorbs Moscow's political bull from the kitchen of
Surkov and Pavlovsky mixed with pop, the main think tank in Russia has long been a
General Staff and the Main Intelligence Department.

Then come the main concepts and methods of Russian domestic and foreign policy. In the
same place - the center of political will of all the current regime.

Among the ideas that operate general staff analysts in Kremlin, particularly characterized is
the idea of the so-called diffusion.

It that, in the modern world, Russia should not strive for territorial expansion and
dissemination of its model.

Critical is - to handle the critical power and the fulcrum of an overall strategic context.

Then, even if the Americans come in the post-Soviet countries, these owners there is still
us.

It was initiated by the General Staff and military special forces and takes place in front of
the rehabilitation of Kremlin influence and expansion of Moscow position even beyond and
above the old Soviet position in Africa and Latin America.

It is assertiveness and determination, without remorse of any reaction from the West. First
of all kremlin hand picks the local power structures, establishes union with «colleagues», to
which then pull the rest of soviet type tactics.

From Viktor Suvorov, and others we learned that it was in the 1950's when GRU hit the
Kremlin to fight for the world's energy resources, finding in it the ultimate leverage of
control of the global situation for the decades ahead.

This global «Diffusion» has its the goal, its Allies and satellites.

But there are internal and external enemies, which should be dealt with in strictly military
way.

The answer known only to NATO

In this regard, the West is totally misguided about the vulnerability of Russia's upper hand
in the «profit» field.

The absence of Russian rule of law, guarantees of personal rights and property rights in fact
means the absence of Russian economy in classic sense of what ECONOMY means.

Instead - the centralized distribution of resources and benefits, which can not serve as
shock absorbers and a counterbalance to the central government.

Cases with Yukos, Metallurgical Concern «Mechel» and many other well confirm it.

The Russian capital $$ interests in the West are not able to contain the Russian
generals.

Russians managed to integrate too far into all the pores of the western economy and
governments there never decide on major sanctions.

And even if sanctions are applied:

the Chinese and Arabs will buy from Russia in any quantities: raw material or weapons, and
instead sell to kremlin everything they need.

So, presenting А«Red Line» to the West in Georgia , Moscow is confident that there is
nothing in the world that could be of any threat to Kremlin.

West wakes up late enough.

Is Georgia the new Pearl Harbor for the United States - a disaster, that will mobilize them
to counterattack?

Or they will wait until another slogan «Tora! Tora! »?

The answer known only to NATO.

26 august 17:20 2008

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Marina Kalashnikova