www.gonzalesresearch.

com

Marylands leader in public opinion polling

Maryland Poll
President Obama Job Approval Governor OMalley Job Approval Obamacare Government Shutdown Democratic Primary

October 2013

Contact: Patrick E. Gonzales

443-458-5034 410-258-7003 (Cell)

Embargo: 12:01 am Thursday, October 17, 2013

Methodology
Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science. He began his career as an analyst with Mason-Dixon Opinion Research and is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling. Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland since the mid 1980s. Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state. Laslo V. Boyd is a partner of Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies. Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30 years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy. Hilary Duff Gonzales is Director of Sales and Marketing for Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies. Mrs. Gonzales has over 20 years experience promoting the state of Maryland, particularly in the tour and travel industry. This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from October 1st through October 14th, 2013. A total of 819 registered voters in Maryland who indicated they were likely to vote in the 2014 general election were interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of interviews was conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns. The margin of error (MOE), according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. There is a 95 percent probability that the true figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or race. This survey also includes an oversampling of 403 registered Democrats who indicated they were likely to vote in the June 2014 primary election. A crosssection of interviews was conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect Democratic primary election voting patterns. The margin of error on this group is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

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Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

GENDER Male Female Total PARTY AFFILIATION Democrat Republican Independent Total RACE White African-American Other/Refused Total REGION Eastern Sh/So MD Baltimore City Baltimore Suburbs Washington Suburbs Western MD Total

Number 392 427 819 Number 466 253 100 819 Number 591 202 26 819 Number 97 75 299 254 94 819

Percent 47.9 % 52.1 % 100.0 % Percent 56.9 % 30.9 % 12.2 % 100.0 % Percent 72.2 % 24.7 % 3.1 % 100.0 % Percent 11.8 % 9.2 % 36.5 % 31.0 % 11.5 % 100.0 %

Regional Groupings are as follows: Eastern Shore/ Southern Md

Calvert Co. Caroline Co. Cecil Co. Dorchester Co. Kent Co. Queen Annes Co. Somerset Co. St. Marys Co. Talbot Co. Wicomico Co. Worcester Co.

Baltimore City
Baltimore City

Baltimore Suburbs
Anne Arundel Co. Baltimore Co. Harford Co. Howard Co.

Washington Suburbs
Charles Co. Montgomery Co. Prince Georges Co.

Western Maryland
Allegany Co. Carroll Co. Frederick Co. Garrett Co. Washington Co.

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Embargo: 12:01 am Thursday, October 17, 2013

Summary
President Barack Obama Job Approval
Among Maryland voters, 58% approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president (38% strongly approve and 20% somewhat approve), while 40% disapprove (31% strongly disapprove and 9% somewhat disapprove), with 2% offering no response.

Obama Job Approval September 2013 January 2013 January 2012 September 2011 January 2011 October 2010 July 2010 January 2010 September 2009 January 2009

Approve 58% 64% 55% 49% 54% 52% 51% 56% 58% 80%

Disapprove 40% 35% 41% 47% 40% 43% 38% 30% 31% 11%

No opinion 2% 1% 4% 4% 6% 5% 11% 14% 11% 9%

President Obama job approval by party and race: Favor Democrats Republicans Independents White African American 85% 11% 48% 45% 94% Oppose 12% 88% 51% 54% 4%

Attitudes toward Obama divide sharply by party

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Embargo: 12:01 am Thursday, October 17, 2013

Governor Martin OMalley Job Approval

It appears Governor OMalley spent some political capital during this past legislative session, as his job rating has dropped since January. Statewide, 48% of voters approve of the job OMalley is doing as governor (19% strongly approve and 29% somewhat approve), while a similar 48% disapprove (34% strongly disapprove and 14% somewhat disapprove), with 4% having no opinion. OMalley Job Approval September 2013 January 2013 January 2012 September 2011 January 2011 October 2010 July 2010 January 2010 September 2009 January 2009 September 2008 March 2008 January 2008 October 2007 March 2007

Approve 48% 54% 53% 52% 58% 48% 48% 46% 48% 49% 45% 37% 39% 46% 52%

Disapprove 48% 41% 40% 40% 30% 44% 39% 36% 37% 37% 35% 48% 49% 31% 21%

No opinion 4% 5% 7% 8% 13% 8% 13% 18% 15% 14% 20% 15% 12% 23% 27%

Figure 1 OMalley Job Approval by Party

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Democrats 29% 14% 67%

83%

46%

51% Approve Disapprove

Republicans

Independents

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Legislative Initiatives
We asked Maryland voters about Governor OMalleys major initiatives during this past General Assembly session. Statewide, 58% approve of the gun control laws that were enacted (47% strongly approve and 11% somewhat approve), while 40% disapprove of the gun control laws that were enacted (30% strongly disapprove and 10% somewhat disapprove). Gun Control by party affiliation and race: Approve Democrats Republicans Independents White African-American 76% 28% 52% 51% 77% Disapprove 23% 71% 44% 48% 21%

Among voters, 49% approve of the death penalty repeal in the state (33% strongly approve and 16% somewhat approve), while 44% disapprove of the death penalty repeal (27% strongly disapprove and 17% somewhat disapprove). Death Penalty Repeal by party and race: Approve Democrats Republicans Independents White African-American 63% 24% 45% 42% 68% Disapprove 31% 68% 49% 52% 23%

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Embargo: 12:01 am Thursday, October 17, 2013 Only 21% of voters approve of the gas tax being raised in the state during the past legislative session (8% strongly approve and 13% somewhat approve), while an overwhelming 76% disapprove of the gas tax being raised (59% strongly disapprove and 17% somewhat disapprove). Gas Tax by party and race: Approve Democrats Republicans Independents White African-American 28% 9% 23% 19% 29% Disapprove 68% 90% 76% 79% 68% 59% of Maryland voters strongly disapprove of the gas tax being increased

Disapproval of the gas tax spans all groups. Among these three major initiatives of OMalley during the 2013 session, the gas tax, by far, is the most unpopular.

Obamacare
Among Maryland voters, 57% favor Obamacare, the law enacted several years ago that made major changes to the country's health care system (36% strongly favor and 21% somewhat favor), while 39% oppose Obamacare (29% strongly oppose and 10% somewhat oppose). Obamacare by party and race: Favor Democrats Republicans Independents White African American 82% 17% 43% 46% 87% Oppose 12% 82% 54% 51% 6%

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Iran
Statewide, 36% of Maryland voters would favor the U. S. taking military action against Iran in order to prevent them from producing a nuclear weapon (19% strongly favor and 17% somewhat favor), while 56% oppose taking military action against Iran (33% strongly oppose and 23% somewhat oppose). Iran by party and race: Favor Democrats Republicans Independents White African American 35% 37% 37% 34% 39% Oppose 57% 53% 55% 56% 55%

There is no partisan divide here as there is on so many other issues facing Maryland voters.

Government Shutdown
Among voters, 87% are concerned about the government shutdowns effect on the United States economy (63% very concerned and 24% somewhat concerned), while only 13% are not concerned (4% not at all concerned and 9% not too concerned). Government Shutdown by party: Concerned Democrats Republicans Independents 90% 81% 84% Not Concerned 10% 18% 16%

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Democratic Primary
Forty percent of Maryland Democratic primary voters have a favorable opinion of Anthony Brown, 4% have an unfavorable opinion, 38% are neutral toward him, and 18% dont recognize his name. Among primary voters, 24% have a favorable opinion of Doug Gansler, 4% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 35% are neutral, and 37% dont recognize his name. Six percent of Maryland Democratic primary voters have a favorable opinion of Heather Mizeur, less than 1% has an unfavorable opinion, 15% are neutral, and 79% dont recognize her name. In an election match-up, 41% say theyd vote for Brown if the election were held today, 21% support Gansler, 5% back Mizeur, and 33% are undecided. The results by race and region: Brown White African American Baltimore Region Washington Suburbs Rest of State 29% 56% 35% 45% 48% Gansler 28% 12% 17% 27% 18% Mizeur 5% 6% 4% 7% 5%

In the Attorney General contest, 25% of Democratic primary voters say theyll vote for Jon Cardin, 13% support Brian Frosh, 8% back Aisha Braveboy, 5% support Bill Frick, and 48% are undecided. Early in this contest, Delegate Cardin seems to be benefitting from his popular uncle, Senator Ben Cardin.

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Embargo: 12:01 am Thursday, October 17, 2013 QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?
JOB APPROVAL: PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA Approve Disapprove No answer Total JOB APPROVAL: PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove No answer Total Number 475 330 14 819 Number 314 161 71 259 14 819 Percent 58.0 % 40.3 % 1.7 % 100.0 % Percent 38.3 % 19.7 % 8.7 % 31.6 % 1.7 % 100.0 %

JOB APPROVAL: PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly approve approve disapprove disapprove No answer PARTY AFFILIATION Democrat 279 59.9% 6 2.4% 29 29.0% 119 25.5% 23 9.1% 19 19.0% 25 5.4% 34 13.4% 12 12.0% 31 6.7% 189 74.7% 39 39.0% 12 2.6% 1 0.4% 1 1.0%

Republican

Independent

JOB APPROVAL: PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly approve approve disapprove disapprove No answer RACE White 148 25.0% 155 76.7% 115 19.5% 35 17.3% 66 11.2% 5 2.5% 253 42.8% 3 1.5% 9 1.5% 4 2.0%

African-American

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Embargo: 12:01 am Thursday, October 17, 2013 QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Martin OMalley is doing as governor?
JOB APPROVAL: GOVERNOR MARTIN O'MALLEY Approve Disapprove No answer Total JOB APPROVAL: GOVERNOR MARTIN O'MALLEY Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove No answer Total Number 391 394 34 819 Number 156 235 115 279 34 819 Percent 47.7 % 48.1 % 4.2 % 100.0 % Percent 19.0 % 28.7 % 14.0 % 34.1 % 4.2 % 100.0 %

JOB APPROVAL: GOVERNOR MARTIN O'MALLEY Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly approve approve disapprove disapprove No answer PARTY AFFILIATION Democrat 132 28.3% 9 3.6% 15 15.0% 178 38.2% 26 10.3% 31 31.0% 53 11.4% 40 15.8% 22 22.0% 81 17.4% 169 66.8% 29 29.0% 22 4.7% 9 3.6% 3 3.0%

Republican

Independent

JOB APPROVAL: GOVERNOR MARTIN O'MALLEY Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly approve approve disapprove disapprove No answer RACE White 95 16.1% 56 27.7% 148 25.0% 77 38.1% 91 15.4% 20 9.9% 238 40.3% 34 16.8% 19 3.2% 15 7.4%

African-American

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Embargo: 12:01 am Thursday, October 17, 2013 QUESTION: During this past legislative session, Maryland government raised the gas tax in the state 21 cents over the next 3 years. Do you approve or disapprove of this?
GAS TAX Approve Disapprove No answer Total GAS TAX Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove No answer Total Number 177 621 21 819 Number 68 109 138 483 21 819 Percent 21.6 % 75.8 % 2.6 % 100.0 % Percent 8.3 % 13.3 % 16.8 % 59.0 % 2.6 % 100.0 %

Strongly approve PARTY AFFILIATION Democrat 56 12.0% 3 1.2% 9 9.0%

Somewhat approve

GAS TAX Somewhat disapprove

Strongly disapprove

No answer

76 16.3% 19 7.5% 14 14.0%

82 17.6% 43 17.0% 13 13.0%

234 50.2% 186 73.5% 63 63.0%

18 3.9% 2 0.8% 1 1.0%

Republican

Independent

Strongly approve RACE White 35 5.9% 28 13.9%

Somewhat approve

GAS TAX Somewhat disapprove

Strongly disapprove

No answer

75 12.7% 30 14.9%

95 16.1% 39 19.3%

373 63.1% 99 49.0%

13 2.2% 6 3.0%

African-American

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Embargo: 12:01 am Thursday, October 17, 2013 QUESTION: During this past legislative session, Maryland government abolished the death penalty in the state. Do you approve or disapprove of this?
DEATH PENALTY REPEAL Approve Disapprove No answer Total DEATH PENALTY REPEAL Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove No answer Total Number 399 364 56 819 Number 268 131 141 223 56 819 Percent 48.7 % 44.4 % 6.8 % 100.0 % Percent 32.7 % 16.0 % 17.2 % 27.2 % 6.8 % 100.0 %

Strongly approve PARTY AFFILIATION Democrat 216 46.4% 23 9.1% 29 29.0%

DEATH PENALTY REPEAL Somewhat Somewhat Strongly approve disapprove disapprove

No answer

77 16.5% 38 15.0% 16 16.0%

68 14.6% 50 19.8% 23 23.0%

74 15.9% 123 48.6% 26 26.0%

31 6.7% 19 7.5% 6 6.0%

Republican

Independent

Strongly approve RACE White 146 24.7% 113 55.9%

DEATH PENALTY REPEAL Somewhat Somewhat Strongly approve disapprove disapprove

No answer

102 17.3% 25 12.4%

119 20.1% 17 8.4%

187 31.6% 30 14.9%

37 6.3% 17 8.4%

African-American

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Embargo: 12:01 am Thursday, October 17, 2013 QUESTION: During this past legislative session, Maryland government passed strict gun control laws in the state. Do you approve or disapprove of this?
GUN CONTROL Approve Disapprove No answer Total GUN CONTROL Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove No answer Total Number 477 329 13 819 Number 384 93 82 247 13 819 Percent 58.2 % 40.2 % 1.6 % 100.0 % Percent 46.9 % 11.4 % 10.0 % 30.2 % 1.6 % 100.0 %

Strongly approve PARTY AFFILIATION Democrat 307 65.9% 36 14.2% 41 41.0%

Somewhat approve

GUN CONTROL Somewhat Strongly disapprove disapprove

No answer

48 10.3% 34 13.4% 11 11.0%

34 7.3% 31 12.3% 17 17.0%

71 15.2% 149 58.9% 27 27.0%

6 1.3% 3 1.2% 4 4.0%

Republican

Independent

Strongly approve RACE White 230 38.9% 137 67.8%

Somewhat approve

GUN CONTROL Somewhat Strongly disapprove disapprove

No answer

72 12.2% 19 9.4%

61 10.3% 19 9.4%

220 37.2% 23 11.4%

8 1.4% 4 2.0%

African-American

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Embargo: 12:01 am Thursday, October 17, 2013 QUESTION: As you may know, a bill that made major changes to the country's health care system became law in 2010. Based on what you know about that legislation, do you generally favor or generally oppose it?
OBAMACARE Favor Oppose No answer Total OBAMACARE Strongly favor Somewhat favor Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose No answer Total Number 467 320 32 819 Number 293 174 79 241 32 819 Percent 57.0 % 39.1 % 3.9 % 100.0 % Percent 35.8 % 21.2 % 9.6 % 29.4 % 3.9 % 100.0 %

Strongly favor PARTY AFFILIATION Democrat 252 54.1% 17 6.7% 24 24.0%

Somewhat favor

OBAMACARE Somewhat Strongly oppose oppose

No answer

130 27.9% 25 9.9% 19 19.0%

17 3.6% 47 18.6% 15 15.0%

41 8.8% 161 63.6% 39 39.0%

26 5.6% 3 1.2% 3 3.0%

Republican

Independent

Strongly favor RACE White 150 25.4% 133 65.8%

Somewhat favor

OBAMACARE Somewhat Strongly oppose oppose

No answer

119 20.1% 44 21.8%

77 13.0% 1 0.5%

226 38.2% 11 5.4%

19 3.2% 13 6.4%

African-American

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QUESTION: Would you favor or oppose the United States taking military action against Iran in order to prevent them from producing a nuclear weapon?
MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAN Favor Oppose No answer Total MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAN Strongly favor Somewhat favor Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose No answer Total Number 296 456 67 819 Number 156 140 188 268 67 819 Percent 36.1 % 55.7 % 8.2 % 100.0 % Percent 19.0 % 17.1 % 23.0 % 32.7 % 8.2 % 100.0 %

Strongly favor PARTY AFFILIATION Democrat 88 18.9% 46 18.2% 22 22.0%

MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAN Somewhat Somewhat Strongly favor oppose oppose

No answer

77 16.5% 48 19.0% 15 15.0%

98 21.0% 74 29.2% 16 16.0%

168 36.1% 61 24.1% 39 39.0%

35 7.5% 24 9.5% 8 8.0%

Republican

Independent

Strongly favor RACE White 105 17.8% 43 21.3%

MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAN Somewhat Somewhat Strongly favor oppose oppose

No answer

98 16.6% 37 18.3%

147 24.9% 38 18.8%

186 31.5% 73 36.1%

55 9.3% 11 5.4%

African-American

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Embargo: 12:01 am Thursday, October 17, 2013 QUESTION: How concerned are you about the government shutdowns effect on the United States economy: very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned, or not at all concerned?
GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN Concerned Not concerned No answer Total GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not too concerned Not at all concerned No answer Total Number 709 105 5 819 Number 516 193 76 29 5 819 Percent 86.6 % 12.8 % 0.6 % 100.0 % Percent 63.0 % 23.6 % 9.3 % 3.5 % 0.6 % 100.0 %

Very concerned PARTY AFFILIATION Democrat 344 73.8% 110 43.5% 62 62.0%

GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN Somewhat Not too Not at all concerned concerned concerned

No answer

75 16.1% 96 37.9% 22 22.0%

33 7.1% 29 11.5% 14 14.0%

11 2.4% 16 6.3% 2 2.0%

3 0.6% 2 0.8% 0 0.0%

Republican

Independent

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********** 403 Democratic Primary Voters **********

Gubernatorial Name Recognition

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of Anthony Brown?

NAME IDENTIFICATION: ANTHONY BROWN Favorable Unfavorable Neutral Don't Recognize Total Number 161 17 152 73 403 Percent 40.0 % 4.2 % 37.7 % 18.1 % 100.0 %

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of Doug Gansler?

NAME IDENTIFICATION: DOUG GANSLER Favorable Unfavorable Neutral Don't Recognize Total

Number 97 14 142 150 403

Percent 24.1 % 3.5 % 35.2 % 37.2 % 100.0 %

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of Heather Mizeur?

NAME IDENTIFICATION: HEATHER MIZEUR Favorable Unfavorable Neutral Don't Recognize Total

Number 24 1 61 317 403

Percent 6.0 % 0.2 % 15.1 % 78.7 % 100.0 %

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Embargo: 12:01 am Thursday, October 17, 2013 QUESTION: If the 2014 Democratic primary election were held today, for whom would you vote for Governor if the candidates were Anthony Brown, Doug Gansler, and Heather Mizeur?
2014 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY - GOVERNOR Brown Gansler Mizeur Undecided Total Number 164 85 21 133 403 Percent 40.7 % 21.1 % 5.2 % 33.0 % 100.0 %

2014 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY - GOVERNOR Brown Gansler Mizeur Undecided GENDER Male 69 40.8% 95 40.6% 34 20.1% 51 21.8% 8 4.7% 13 5.6% 58 34.3% 75 32.1%

Female

2014 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY - GOVERNOR Brown Gansler Mizeur Undecided RACE White 66 29.3% 91 56.2% 63 28.0% 20 12.3% 11 4.9% 9 5.6% 85 37.8% 42 25.9%

African-American

2014 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY - GOVERNOR Brown Gansler Mizeur Undecided REGION Baltimore Region 64 34.8% 70 44.6% 30 48.4% 31 16.8% 43 27.4% 11 17.7% 7 3.8% 11 7.0% 3 4.8% 82 44.6% 33 21.0% 18 29.0%

Washington Suburbs

Rest of State

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Embargo: 12:01 am Thursday, October 17, 2013 QUESTION: If the 2014 Democratic primary election were held today, for whom would you vote for Attorney General if the candidates were Aisha Braveboy, Jon Cardin, Bill Frick and Brian Frosh?
2014 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY - ATTORNEY GENERAL Braveboy Cardin Frick Frosh Undecided Total Number 33 101 21 53 195 403 Percent 8.2 % 25.1 % 5.2 % 13.2 % 48.4 % 100.0 %

2014 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY - ATTORNEY GENERAL Braveboy Cardin Frick Frosh Undecided GENDER Male 15 8.9% 18 7.7% 37 21.9% 64 27.4% 9 5.3% 12 5.1% 23 13.6% 30 12.8% 85 50.3% 110 47.0%

Female

2014 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY - ATTORNEY GENERAL Braveboy Cardin Frick Frosh Undecided RACE White 11 4.9% 20 12.3% 72 32.0% 27 16.7% 10 4.4% 10 6.2% 36 16.0% 15 9.3% 96 42.7% 90 55.6%

African-American

2014 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY - ATTORNEY GENERAL Braveboy Cardin Frick Frosh Undecided REGION Baltimore Region 13 7.1% 18 11.5% 2 3.2% 56 30.4% 26 16.6% 19 30.6% 7 3.8% 13 8.3% 1 1.6% 13 7.1% 27 17.2% 13 21.0% 95 51.6% 73 46.5% 27 43.5%

Washington Suburbs

Rest of State

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