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24 Apri 2!12 "ast up#ate# at 2$:14 %&'

Biodiversity loss: How accurate are the numbers?

() *ichar# +night ((, -ews 'went) )ears ago. the /arth 0ummit in *io resu te# in a ,on1ention on (io ogica 2i1ersit). now signe# b) 19$ nations. to pre1ent species oss. (ut can we te how man) species are becoming e3tinct4 5ne statement on the ,on1ention6s website c aims: 78e are in#ee# e3periencing the greatest wa1e o9 e3tinction since the #isappearance o9 the #inosaurs.7 8hi e that ma) :or ma) not; be true. the ne3t sentence is spurious ) precise: 7/1er) hour three species #isappear. /1er) #a) up to 1<! species are ost.7 /1en putting asi#e the apparent mathematica error in that c aim :on the 9ace o9 it. i9 three species are #isappearing e1er) hour. 72 wou # be ost e1er) #a); there is an ob1ious prob em in generating an) such number. -o-one knows how man) species e3ist. An# i9 we #on6t know a species e3ists. we won6t miss it when it6s gone. 7,urrent estimates o9 the number o9 species can 1ar) 9rom. et6s sa). two mi ion species to o1er $! or e1en 1!! mi ion species.7 sa)s 2r (rau io 2ias. e3ecuti1e secretar) o9 the ,on1ention on (io ogica 2i1ersit). 70o we #on6t ha1e a goo# estimate to an or#er o9 magnitu#e o9 precision.7 he sa)s. =t is possib e to count the number o9 species known to be e3tinct. 'he =nternationa >nion 9or ,onser1ation o9 -ature :=>,-; #oes ?ust that. =t has iste# 8!1 anima an# p ant species :most ) anima ; known to ha1e gone e3tinct since 1<!!. (ut i9 it6s rea ) true that up to 1<! species are being ost e1er) #a). shou #n6t we e3pect to be ab e to name more than 8!1 e3tinct species in <12 )ears4 @ro9essor %eorgina &ace. who works in the ,entre 9or @opu ation (io og) at =mperia ,o ege "on#on. sa)s the =>,-6s metho# is he p9u but ina#eAuate. 7=t is ne1er going to

get us the answers we nee#.7 she sa)s. 'hat6s wh) scientists pre9er to use a mathematica mo#e to estimate species oss. *ecent ). howe1er. that mo#e has been attacke# in the pages o9 -ature. @ro9essor 0tephen Bubbe 9rom the >ni1ersit) o9 ,a i9ornia. "os Ange es. sa)s that an error in the mo#e means that it has - 9or )ears - o1er-estimate# the rate o9 species oss. 'he mo#e app ies something ca e# the 7species to area re ationship7 to habitat oss. @ut simp ). an estimate is ma#e o9 the number o9 species in a gi1en area. or habitat - the arger the area. the greater the number o9 species are sai# to be in it. 'hen the mo#e is worke# backwar#s - the sma er the area. the 9ewer the species. =n other wor#s. i9 )ou measure habitat oss. )ou can use the mo#e to ca cu ate how man) species are being ost as that habitat gets sma er. 'he prob em. sa)s Bubbe . is that the mo#e #oes not work in re1erse. 7'he metho#.7 he sa)s. 7when e3trapo ate# backwar#. #oesn6t take into account the 9act that )ou nee# to remo1e more area to get to the who e range o9 a species than )ou nee# to remo1e area to 9in# the 9irst in#i1i#ua o9 a species.7 Bubbe 6s point is that i9 )ou increase a habitat b). sa). 9i1e hectares. an# )our ca cu ations show that )ou e3pect there to be 9i1e new species in those 9i1e hectares. it is wrong to assume that re1ersing the mo#e . an# shrinking )our habitat. e iminates 9i1e species. 'hat6s because it takes more area to estab ish e3tinction - to show that e1er) in#i1i#ua in a species has been e iminate# - than it #oes to #isco1er a new species. which reAuires coming across ?ust one in#i1i#ua o9 that species. Bubbe sa)s when correcte# the mo#e shows about ha 9 as man) species going e3tinct as pre1ious ) reporte#. >n9ortunate ) 9or scientists tr)ing to measure species oss. the prob ems #on6t en# there. 'he) a so nee# to ca cu ate the 6backgroun# rate6 o9 e3tinction. =9 )ou want to work out the impact o9 human i9e on bio#i1ersit). )ou nee# to know how man) species wou # ha1e gone e3tinct an)wa) without us being here. &ace sa)s that is #i99icu t. 7(ackgroun# rates are not constant either.7 she sa)s. 7=9 )ou ook back through the histor) o9 i9e on /arth. there ha1e been ma?or perio#s o9 e3tinctions. /3tinction rates 1ar) a ot.7 'he e1e o9 uncertaint) 9ace# b) researchers in this 9ie # means it is perhaps not surprising that no-one can be sure o9 the sca e o9 species oss. =t a so means that when a representati1e o9 the ,on1ention o9 (io ogica 2i1ersit) c aime# 7e1er) hour three species #isappear7 he must ha1e known it was too precise. (ut the 9act that the precise e3tinction rate is unknowab e #oes not pro1e that the prob em is imagine#.

(rau io 2ias. e3ecuti1e secretar) o9 the ,on1ention on (io ogica 2i1ersit). sa)s: 78e know that the #ri1ers behin# species oss are most ) increasing - an# con1ersion an# #egra#ation. po ution. c imate change. An# o9 course the human popu ation is sti growing an# consumption is growing - an# most o9 that consumption is not sustainab e.7 @ro9essor Bubbe . too. thinks species oss is a serious issue. e1en though he be ie1es it has been e3aggerate#. 'here is. though. one other prob em 9ace# b) an)one who wants to ca attention to the issue - the 9ear that peop e are inc ine# to care more about so-ca e# charismatic anima s :most ) arger anima s which we recognise; than the mi ions o9 name ess an# microscopic organisms which are a so inc u#e# in species oss mo#e s. Bubbe sa)s we shou # be at east as concerne# about such seeming ) unimportant species. 7'he proportion o9 the wor #6s species that are charismatic organisms is rea ) tin).7 he sa)s. 7Crom a biomass point o9 1iew. this is a bacteria p anet. =t6s a 1er) parochia 1iew to assume that we shou # care on ) about e ephants an# zebras.7 (ut i9 peop e #o care more about charismatic anima s than bacteria. which seems ike ). then it might pro1e #i99icu t to get those peop e to take the issue serious ) un ess such anima s are threatene#. A number o9 charismatic species. or sub-species. ha1e become e3tinct in the wi #. but ha1e been kept a i1e in capti1it) thanks to the e99orts o9 enthusiasts an# campaigners. 5thers ha1e gone e3tinct - ike the @)renean =be3 or the (ai?i ri1er #o phin. (ut compare# to the number o9 species which e3ist in the wor #. e1en taking the owest estimates o9 that number. such known cases are 1er) 9ew. Accor#ing to =>,- #ata. 9or e3amp e. on ) one anima has been #e9inite ) i#enti9ie# as ha1ing gone e3tinct since 2!!!. =t was a mo usc. Additional reporting by Polly Hope