1.

0 INTRODUCTION
Research Topic: CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTAINABLE IMPACTS OF HYDROELECTRIC POWER SUPPLY IN MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES After reviewing the literature based on the research topic, the following research questions were formed: Research Questions: What are the climate parameters that have significant change that were brought about in the increase of greenhouse gases? What are the climate variables that resulted in the change of climate in the Philippines? What is the relationship in rising temperature and precipitation change due the climate change in the Philippines with Hydroelectric power generation in Mindanao, Philippines? What is the effect of El Nino phenomenon with Hydroelectric Power generation in Mindanao, Philippines? What other factors aside from climate change and El Nino that can be considered as involved in the Power shortage supply in Mindanao, Philippines? Hypothesis: Climate Change in the Philippines affects the hydroelectric power generation in Mindanao, Philippines. This type of hypothesis is a relational hypothesis since it will state the relationships between variables. The variables involved in climate change are the temperature and precipitation. Other variables are the temperature and precipitation change brought about by the El Nino phenomenon. An increase in temperature will increase evaporation; this will affect the water resources required in hydroelectric generation. Decrease in precipitation will also affect water slow therefore will affect also power supply in hydroelectric facilities. Hypotheses can be tested qualitatively because variables such as temperature and precipitation can be measured. Hydroelectric power output can also be quantified.

Research Methodology and Research Method: Secondary data source can be used to allow the translation of climatic variables into estimates of river flow. This will enable to show the relationship between climate variables and hydropower generation performance. A model can be developed in order to quantify the relationship between changing climate and hydroelectric power generation viability. All variables can be quantified; therefore, quantitative methodology will be used. Based on the quantitative methodology, this research will be appropriately used the Correlational Research Method. Since, this will examine the co-variation of two or more variables such as

temperature and precipitation change in relation with hydropower generation performance. After a second review of literatures a revised hypothesis was drawn: Increase in temperature, decrease in precipitation and decrease river runoff due to climate change in the Philippines has a negative impact of the hydroelectric power generation in Mindanao, Philippines. The potential impact of climate change on water resources can be shown in terms of variations in temperature and precipitation. There is a relationship between increased temperatures with variations in river runoff due to changes in precipitation. Studies show not only the effect on the river flows but also the impact on generation from hydroelectric stations.

2.0 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

In order to systematically find a way to solve the research problem an appropriate research methodology should be carried out. Research methodology is essentially the procedures that will be used to describe, explain and predict this phenomenon and also gaining more knowledge (Rajasekar , Philominathan & Chinnathambi 2006) . In this research the procedure that will be used in describing or explaining climate change in the Philippines is by using change of temperature and precipitation. The capacity of the natural water resources used in Mindanao, Philippines in hydroelectric power generation can be assessed against projected climate change and variability. This required the definition of the water source and the hydroelectric facilities. After the definition, water resource model can be used to simulate hydrological systems (Jose & Cruz 1999).

Based on the above assessment, Quantitative research method will be applied that will primarily base on the measurement of change of temperature and precipitation consequently the estimates of river flow or river runoff. This research method will be based on simulation case studies; therefore, it will generally classify as quantitative research (Melville & Goddard 1996). Secondary data source can be used to allow the translation of climatic variables into estimates of river flow. This will enable to show the relationship between climate variables and hydropower generation performance. A model can be developed in order to quantify the relationship between changing climate and hydroelectric power generation viability (Jose & Cruz 1999). This will examine the co-variation of two variables such as temperature and precipitation change in relation with hydropower generation performance. Collections of empirical data can be analysed and simulated to develop a model. A model can described and will enable to evaluate the relationship between the changes in climate and the hydroelectric power performance (Harisson & Whittington 2002). Enhanced levels of greenhouse gas concentrations are predicted to cause a significant rise in temperature over the next century. Predictions of future climate are based on the output of complex numerical Global Circulation Models (GCMs) which simulate physical processes in the atmosphere and oceans (Harisson, Whittington & Gundry n.d.). Secondary historical climate data of change in temperature and precipitation from the Philippines government statistics website can be investigated to convert into primary date using regression analysis. To assess the effect of climate change, a model can be develop using this method to provide estimates of potential and actual evapotranspiration in terms of river runoff based on temperature and precipitation change. The effect of climate change on hydrogenation can then be determined by using the expected values for river runoff and the regression analysis Harisson, Whittington & Gundry n.d.).

3.0 RESEARCH METHODS

Research methods are the various procedures, schemes and algorithms used in research. These include theoretical procedures, experimental studies, numerical schemes and statistical
3

approaches that are essentially planned, scientific and value-neutral. Research methods will assist the researcher to collect samples, data in order to find solution to the research problem. Research method also will explain scientifically phenomena based on collected facts, measurements and observations in which these explanations can be verified by experiments (Graciano & Raulin 2004).

3.1 SELECTION OF RESEARCH METHODS

Based on the variables identified in the research hypothesis which are temperature and precipitation, Quantitative research method should be applied in this research. Since temperature and precipitation data can be objectively and reliably drawn from the Philippines Statistics website, quantitative research method can be used by basing on this assumption. Furthermore, this collection of data can be manipulated

mathematically to objectively quantify differences and relationships. On the other hand if Qualitative research method if considered, the phenomena which is climate change in the Philippines will be assumed as complex for this matter (Borrego, Douglas & Amelink 2009). Quantitative research method in the case of climate data analysis can make predictions, produce causal statements, establish relationships and generalise findings. Qualitative research also is use in conducting research to gain insight into complex phenomena such as climate change. Thus, this will describe the said event or patterns of changes in the Philippines climate (Schloss & Smith 1999). In this method, there will be a process that will involve in demonstrating control of dependent variables from the research hypothesis through statistical techniques that will then support the generalisation of findings. In this research, historical studies are involved such as Philippines historical climate data and related case studies. The variables in the research hypothesis such as temperature and precipitation will be drawn from historical data website and a case study will be used to correlate these variables (Schloss & Smith 1999).

3.2 DETAIL LITERATURE STUDY

Further data should be sought by using case studies to correlate hydroelectric power potential with climate change variables that can be found which are temperature, precipitation and river runoff in the research hypothesis. In order to assess the climate impact on hydroelectric power generation, simulation and model will be used from case studies. The following literatures for this matter were reviewed for this research. Climate change impacts on hydroelectric power G.P. Harrison, H.W. Whittington and S.W. Gundry Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are expected to lead to significant changes in climate over the next century. One of the many potential effects is that river catchment runoff may be altered. This could have implications for the design, operation and viability of hydroelectric power stations. This describes attempts to predict and quantify these impacts. It details a methodology for computer based modelling of hydroelectric resources and proposes analysis of the impacts on the electrical system and on the performance of hydroelectric power generation. Predictions of future climate are based on the output of complex numerical Global Circulation Models (GCMs) which simulate physical processes in the atmosphere and oceans (Harisson, Whittington & Gundry n.d.).

Climate change impacts and responses in the Philippines: water resources Aida M. Jose, Nathaniel A. Cruz The Philippines, like many of the worlds poor countries, will be among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change because of its limited resources. As shown by previous studies, occurrences of extreme climatic events like droughts and floods have serious negative implications for major water reservoirs in the country. A preliminary and limited assessment of the countrys water resources was undertaken through the application of general circulation model (GCM) results and climate change scenarios that incorporate incremental changes in temperature and rainfall and the use of a hydrological model to simulate the future runoff-rainfall relationship. Results showed that changes in rainfall and temperature in the future will be critical to future inflow in the Angat reservoir and Lake Lanao, with rainfall variability having a greater impact than temperature variability. In the Angat reservoir, runoff is likely to
5

decrease in the future and be insufficient to meet future demands for water. Lake Lanao is also expected to have a decrease in runoff in the future. With the expected vulnerability of the countrys water resources to global warming, possible measures to cope with future problems facing the countrys water resources are identified (Jose & Cruz 1999).

Susceptibility of the Batoka Gorge hydroelectric scheme to climate change Gareth P. Harrison, H. (Bert) W. Whittington The continuing and increased use of renewable energy sources, including hydropower, is a key strategy to limit the extent of future climate change. Paradoxically, climate change itself may alter the availability of this natural resource, adversely affecting the financial viability of both existing and potential schemes. Here, a model is described that enables the assessment of the relationship between changes in climate and the viability, technical and financial, of hydro development. The planned Batoka Gorge scheme on the Zambezi River is used as a case study to validate the model and to predict the impact of climate change on river flows, electricity production and scheme financial performance. The model was found to perform well, given the inherent difficulties in the task, although there is concern regarding the ability of the hydrological model to reproduce the historic flow conditions of the upper Zambezi Basin. Simulations with climate change scenarios illustrate the sensitivity of the Batoka Gorge scheme to changes in climate. They suggest significant reductions in river flows, declining power production, reductions in electricity sales revenue and consequently an adverse impact on a range of investment measures (Harisson & Whittington 2002).

A modelling methodology for assessing the Impact of climate variability and climatic Change on hydroelectric generation J. Ricardo Munoz and David J. Sailor A new methodology relating basic climatic variables to hydroelectric generation was developed. The methodology can be implemented in large or small basins with any number of hydro plants. The method was applied to the Sacramento, Eel and Russian river basins in northern California where more than 100 hydroelectric plants are
6

located. The final model predicts the availability of hydroelectric generation for the entire basin provided present and near past climate conditions, with about 90% accuracy. The results can be used for water management purposes or for analysing the effect of climate variability on hydropower generation. Climate change scenarios were defined to investigate the impact of global warming on the hydropower generation availability in the basin. A wide range of results can be obtained depending on the climate change scenario used (Munoz & Sailor 1998).

Climate change/variability implications on hydroelectricity generation in the Zambezi River Basin Francis Davison Yamba & Hartley Walimwipi & Suman Jain & Peter Zhou & Boaventura Cuamba & Cornelius Mzezewa The study has analysed the effects of various factors on hydroelectric power generation potential to include climate change/variability, water demand, and installation of proposed hydroelectric power schemes in the Zambezi River Basin. An assessment of historical (19702000) power potential in relation to climate change/variability at existing hydroelectric power schemes (Cahora Bassa, Kariba, Kafue Gorge and Itezhi-Tezhi) in the Zambezi River Basin was conducted. The correlation of hydroelectric power potential with climate change/variability aimed at observing the link and extent of influence of the latter on the former was investigated. In order to predict the future outlook of hydroelectric power potential, General Circulation Models (GCM) were used to generate projected precipitation. The monthly simulated precipitation was extracted from the GCM for every sub basin and used to compute future precipitation. Further, future water demand in the sub basins of the Zambezi River Basin were estimated based on the respective population growth rate in each sub basin. Subsequently, water balance model, with projected precipitation and water demand input was used to determine projected run-offs of sub basins of the Zambezi River Basin. .Based on the projected run-offs of sub basins, reservoir storage capacities at existing hydroelectric power schemes was estimated. The baseline assessment revealed a strong relationship between hydroelectric power potential and climate change/variability. The study also revealed that the main climate and other risks associated with current and future hydroelectric power generation include projected dry years, floods and increasing water demand. The results indicate that the hydroelectric power potential has a tendency towards gradual reduction in its
7

potential in all existing and proposed hydroelectric power schemes owing to climate change and increasing water demand (Yamba et al. 2011).

3.3 TESTING HYPOTHESIS

A fundamental principle in research is the formulation of hypothesis. After the formulation of this hypothesis and the accumulation of data, analysis of the collected data will be done. This analysis will accepts or rejects the hypothesis. The purpose of this hypothesis is to predict a relationship between variables in this case temperature, precipitation and river runoff which can be tested (Melville & Goddard 1996). The first step of hypothesis testing is to convert the research question into null and alterative hypotheses. We start with the null hypothesis (H0). The null hypothesis is a claim of no difference. The opposing hypothesis is the alternative hypothesis (H1). The alternative hypothesis is a claim of a difference in the population, and is the hypothesis in which this research often hopes to bolster. It is important to keep in mind that the null and alternative hypothesis reference population values, and not observed statistics (Melville & Goddard 1996). A test statistic from the data can be calculated. There are different types of test statistics. This research will use in the one-sample z-statistics. The z statistic will compare the observed sample mean to an expected population mean 0. Large test statistics indicate data are far from expected, providing evidence against the null hypothesis and in favour of the alternative hypothesis (Melville & Goddard 1996).

The test statistic is converted to a conditional probability called a P-value. The Pvalue answers the question If the null hypothesis were true, what is the probability of observing the current data or data that is more extreme? (Melville & Goddard 1996). Small p values provide evidence against the null hypothesis because they say the observed data are unlikely when the null hypothesis is true. We apply the following conventions: (Melville & Goddard 1996). o When p value > .10 the observed difference is not significant o When p value .10 the observed difference is marginally significant o When p value .05 the observed difference is significant
8

o When p value .01 the observed difference is highly significant (Melville & Goddard 1996). Use of significant in this context will mean that the observed difference is not likely due to chance. It does not mean of important or meaningful. Alpha () is a probability threshold for a decision. If P , we will reject the null hypothesis. Otherwise it will be retained for want of evidence (Melville & Goddard 1996). This research will use a zstat to test a sample mean against an expectation. The zstat needed population standard deviation (without estimating it from the data) to determine the standard error of the mean. To conduct a one-sample test when the population standard deviation is not known, we use a variant of the zstat called the tstat. The advantage of the tstat is that it can use sample standard deviation s instead of to formulate the estimated standard error of the mean (Melville & Goddard 1996). Hypotheses: The null and alternative hypotheses are identical to those used by the z test. The null hypothesis is H0: = 0. Alternatives are H1: 0 (two-sided) H1: > 0 (one-sided to right) H1: < 0 (one-sided to left) Test statistic: The one-sample t statistic is:

(Melville & Goddard 1996) Where x represents the sample mean, 0 represents the expected value under the null hypothesis, and sem = s / n. This statistic has n 1 degrees of freedom. P-value and conclusion: The tstat is converted to a p value with a computer program or t table. When using the t table, you will only be able to find boundaries for the p value. Small values of P provide evidence against H0 (Melville & Goddard 1996).
9

4.0 PRIMARY DATA COLLECTION

The search for answers to research questions calls of collection of data. Data are facts, figures and other relevant materials, past and present, serving as bases for study and analysis. The data serve as the bases or raw materials for analysis. Without an analysis of factual data, no specific inferences can be drawn on the questions under study. Inferences based on imagination or guesswork cannot provide correct answers to research questions. The relevance, adequacy and reliability of data determine the quality of the findings of a study (Graciano & Raulin 2004). Data form the basis for testing the hypotheses formulated in this research. Data also provide the facts and figures required for constructing measurement and tables, which are analysed with statistical techniques. Inferences on the results of statistical, analysis and tests of significance provide the answers to research questions. Thus the scientific process of measurement, analysis, testing and inferences depends on the availability of relevant data and their accuracy. Hence the importance of data for any research studies(Graciano & Raulin 2004). Primary sources are original sources from which the researcher directly collects data that have not been previously collected. Primary data are first-hand information collected through various methods such as observation, interviewing, mailing etc(Graciano & Raulin 2004).

4.1 PRIMARY DATA COLLECTION METHOD

In this research the primary data is generated using regression analysis of secondary data taken from the Philippine government statistic website. Base of the research hypothesis the variables involve are temperature and precipitation. The following are historical climate data from previous statistical research (Correlation and Regression n.d.).

10

Table 1Historical Climate Data 1966-1982 (Philippine National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) n.d).

Table 2.

Historical Climate Data 1983-1996 (Philippine National Statistical

Coordination Board (NSCB) n.d).

11

Climate Condition With the increasing emission of greenhouse gases, their concentrations in the atmosphere also go up which, in turn, cause the temperature of the earth to rise. The rise in earths temperature, meanwhile, leads to changes in the patterns of precipitation and the sea level to rise. The changes in climate have adverse effects not only on our ecological and socioeconomic systems but on human health as well. Thus, there is a growing concern over various manifestations of climate changes like the pollution-induced global warming and the El Nio phenomenon (Philippine National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) n.d.). A study made by the NSCB in 1998 on the various climate data generated by PAGASA from 1966 to 1996 indicated a shift to a warmer climate. A close examination of the temperature in the Philippines from the period 1966 to 1996 revealed that from 1987 onwards, the average minimum temperatures recorded were higher than the normal minimum temperature of 22.95 degrees C, suggesting that the climate in the country is getting warmer. Similarly, the average mean temperature observed in the same period has not fallen below the normal mean temperature of 27.03 degrees C(Philippine National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) n.d).

Figure 1. Average Minimum Temperature 1966-1996 (Philippine National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) n.d).

12

Figure 2. Average Mean Temperature 1966-1996 (Philippine National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) n.d. Other climate variables were tested in terms of the effect of El Nino covering the same period (1966-1996). El Nino is a phenomenon characterised by the relaxing of trade winds, which normally blow from the east to west, causing westerly winds to intensify. This drives the warm waters to the east causing intensified cloud formation and resulting to heavy rainfall which leads to floods, hurricanes, etc. On the other hand, formation of clouds in the west is weakened, thereby, reducing rainfall and causing dry spell 3. Simultaneous occurrences of above normal Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and below normal Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) indicate a global-scale climate variation defined as the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The SOI is the difference in standardized atmospheric pressures over the south eastern Pacific and the Indian Ocean and Australia. A total of eight El Nio or ENSOrelated drought episodes/periods have been listed by PAGASA as occurring in the country from 1966 to 1996. These were in 1968-69, 1972-73, 1976-77, 1982-83, 1986-87, 1989-90, 1991-92 and 1994-95. Data on the various climate variables for the past three decades are given in Table 1 and Table 2. Annual data presented were obtained by averaging the data recorded by the different PAGASA stations located nationwide (Philippine National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) n.d. .

13

Regression analysis includes many techniques for modelling and analysing several variables, when the focus is on the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. By using this method the secondary data from the mathematically describes the dependence of the Y variable on the X variable and constructs an equation which can be used to predict any value of Y for any value of X. It is more specific and provides more information. Regression analysis assumes that each of the variables is normally distributed with equal variance. In addition to deriving the regression equation, regression analysis also draws a line of best fit through the data points of the scattergram. These regression lines may be linear, in which case the relationship between the variables fits a straight line, or nonlinear, in which case a polynomial equation is used to describe the relationship (Correlation and Regression n.d.). Regression (also known as simple regression, linear regression, or least squares regression) fits a straight line equation of the following form to the data: (Correlation and Regression n.d.) Y = a + bX Where Y is the dependent variable, X is the single independent variable, a is the Y-intercept of the regression line and b is the slope of the line (also known as the regression coefficient) (Correlation and Regression n.d.). Once the equation has been derived, it can be used to predict the change in Y for any change in X. It can therefore be used to extrapolate between the existing data points as well as predict results which have not been previously observed or tested (Correlation and Regression n.d.). A t test is utilized to ascertain whether there is a significant relationship between X and Y, as in correlation, by testing whether the regression coefficient, b, is different from the null hypothesis of zero (no relationship). If the correlation coefficient, r, is known therefore the regression coefficient can be derived (Correlation and Regression n.d.) .

14

The regression line is fitted using a method known as least squares which minimizes the sum of the squared vertical distances between the actual and predicted values of Y. Along with the regression equation, slope, and intercept; regression analysis provides another useful statistic: the standard error of the slope (Correlation and Regression n.d.). Just as the standard error of the mean is an estimate of how closely the sample mean approximates the population mean, the standard error of the slope is an estimate of how closely the measured slope approximates the true slope. It is a measure of the goodness of fit of the regression line to the data and is calculated using the standard deviation of the residuals. A residual is the vertical distance of each data point from the least squares fitted line (Correlation and Regression n.d.).

Figure 3.

Regression line (Correlation and Regression n.d.)

Residuals represent the difference between the observed value of Y and that which is predicted by X using the regression equation. If the regression line fits the data well, the residuals will be small. Large residuals may point to the presence of outlying data which, as in correlation, can significantly affect the validity of the regression equation (Correlation and Regression n.d.). The steps in calculating a regression equation are similar to those for calculating a correlation coefficient. First, a scattergram is plotted to determine whether the data assumes a linear or nonlinear pattern. If outliers are present, the need for nonlinear regression, transformation of the data, or non-parametric methods should be

15

considered. Assuming the data are normally distributed, the regression equation is calculated. The residuals are then checked to confirm that the regression line fits the data well. If the residuals are high, the possibility of non-normally distributed data should be reconsidered (Correlation and Regression n.d.).

4.2 ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF PRIMARY DATA COLLECTION METHOD

Primary data collection method in this case should be the actual measurement of temperature and precipitation in the Philippines for a certain number of years to get the pattern of climate change (Melville & Goddard 1996). One of the main advantages of using this method of collecting data is the amount of control the researcher will have in terms of the quality of data acquired. Aside from the quality of date, this method will allow the researcher to choose the type of method or process in measuring temperature and precipitation and the amount of time use in data collection. Therefore, this method will enable the researcher to focus on specific aspects of the research (Melville & Goddard 1996). The other advantage is that primary data collection focuses on the specific variables needed, unlike secondary data used in this research which contain data that are not needed by the researcher. Aside from this, the other thing about using primary collection method is that it is presented with original and unbiased data. The measurement of temperature and precipitation of long span of years will consume a significant amount of time and can be considered as one of its disadvantage. It will also demand huge resources in terms of man power and facilities (Melville & Goddard 1996).

5.0 SECONDARY DATA COLLECTION

For some research questions such as in this case, it is practical to use data collected earlier by other credible researchers or for other purposes than research which is an official statistics records kept routinely by a government organisation. By principle of being archived and made available, this type of primary data will serve as secondary data. In this research, the main sources of information are the official data archive which is the Philippine National
16

Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB). This is the gateway to official Philippine social and economic statistics. Although the actual measurement of the temperature, precipitation and other climate variables are done by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) (Melville & Goddard 1996).

5.1 SECONDARY DATA COLLECTION METHOD

The potential impact of climate change on water resources has been suggested since the 1980s, as work progressed on predicting climate change. Although Global Circulation Model (GCM) can be used to predict runoff directly, the coarse scale used means that this information is only useful for the most general studies. As a result, many studies have been carried out on individual basins, showing that river basins display a range of sensitivities to climate change. Figure 1 shows the response of a typical river basin to variations in precipitation and temperature. It can be seen that increased temperature results in non-linear variations in runoff due to changes in precipitation (Harisson, Whittington & Gundry n.d.) .

Figure 4 Gundry n.d.)

River Basin Response to Climate Change (Harisson, Whittington &

Later studies have considered not only the effect on river flows but also the impact on generation from hydroelectric stations. In particular, one study examined a number of international river basins. The study drew upon existing hydrological and dedicated basin models and the experience of international experts. For example, for one GCM scenario (GFDL), hydroelectric production on the Indus River would fall by 22%.
17

Another study qualitatively examined the effects of reduced hydroelectric output on sub-Saharan Africa and central Europe (Harisson, Whittington & Gundry n.d.). Climate impact assessment requires scenarios of future climate to be translated into potential changes on natural and human systems. To assess climate impacts on hydropower production a number of key steps must be taken : (Harisson, Whittington & Gundry n.d.) 1. A river basin is selected and its rainfall-runoff processes are modelled and calibrated; 2. Climate data emanating from different GCM or arbitrary climate scenarios is applied to the model and the runoff computed; 3. River runoff values are converted into estimates of hydroelectric power production. The first step involves the accurate modelling of the hydrology of the chosen river basin. A wide variety of modelling techniques have been applied to simulating runoff processes. Three basic approaches exist: (Harisson, Whittington & Gundry n.d.) Empirical Conceptual Deterministic

The first type will be used in this research which will require in establishing a relationship between climate inputs, the temperature and precipitation and hydrological outputs such as river runoff. Given that climate data from the GCMs can be converted into a form suitable for use, the output from an appropriate calibrated hydrological model that will look like the figure below. In this figure, it can be seen that climate change affects the magnitude and timing of river runoff. The potential for hydroelectric generation approximately follows runoff, so here it can be seen that hydroelectric potential would also be affected. To quantify the relationship between changing climate and hydroelectric power generation, a model can be developed (Harisson, Whittington & Gundry n.d.).

18

Figure 5 Gundry n.d.)

Effect of Climate Change on River Runoff (Harisson, Whittington &

The GCM will indicate annual electricity production. This will show variations of hydro energy production in relationship with variations of river flow or river runoff. This can be seen in Figure which shows the percentage of maximum energy production achieved on average each month (Harisson & Whittington 2002)..

Figure 6

Energy production using GCM (Harisson & Whittington 2002).

19

5.2 ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTANGES OF SECONDARY DATA COLLECTION METHOD

There are many advantages in using secondary data collection method. This includes the relative ease of access to many sources of secondary data. In this case, the source is the Philippines National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) website. This means that in todays technology of online availability access, secondary data is more openly accessed. Furthermore, the use of secondary data has allowed researchers access to valuable information for little or no cost to acquire. Therefore, this

collection of data is much less expensive than the primary data. Secondary data collection is often used to clarify the research question. It is usually used prior to primary research to help clarify the research focus. The use of secondary data

collection is often used to help align the focus of large scale primary research. When focusing on secondary research, the researcher may realize that the exact information they were looking to uncover is already available through secondary sources. This would effectively eliminate the need and expense to carry out primary research (Graciano & Raulin 2004). There are some disadvantages to using secondary research. The originators of the primary research are largely self-governed and controlled by the organisation that measured and keep the data. Like in this case, PAGASA for the measurement and NSCB for archiving and analysing primary data from PAGASA. Therefore, the secondary data used must be scrutinised closely since the origins of the information may be questionable. Moreover, the researcher needs to take sufficient steps to critically evaluate the validity and reliability of the information provided (Graciano & Raulin 2004). In many cases, secondary data is not presented in a form that exactly what the researchers needs. Therefore, the researcher needs to rely on secondary data that is presented and classified in a way that is similar to the research requirements. In many cases, researchers find information that appears valuable and promising. The researcher may not get the full version of the research to gain the full value of the study. When using secondary research, one must exercise caution when using dated information from the past. In this case, the location and date of where the data was measured will be a factor that should be considered (Graciano & Raulin 2004).
20

6.0 VALIDITY OF DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

The use of reliability and validity are common in quantitative research. For quantitative research, reliability seeks to determine the extent to which the data or measurement is consistent. In this case, the measurement of the temperature and precipitation as the climate variables should be consistent. This means that consistency refers to what degree an

instrument measures the same way each time is used under similar conditions with the same location. Since the data collections was conducted by Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), which the Philippine national institution dedicated to provide flood and typhoon warnings, public weather forecasts and advisories, meteorological, astronomical, climatological, and other specialized information and services primarily for the protection of life and property and in support of economic, productivity and sustainable development, it can be assume that data collection was done consistently and scientifically (Library & Information Science Research 2009). By the same basis, the issues of credibility, transferability, dependability and conformability in this qualitative research method can be positively addressed. On the other hand, in the analysis of this secondary data, by conducting literature reviews, it is important to examine the research design and methodology and how the case studies asserted some degree of reliability and validity. Validity can be determined by the findings that the research has the correct or best interpretation of the findings from case studies and other factors or variables have been acknowledged (Library & Information Science Research 2009).

7.0 CONCLUSION OF RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

In order to systematically find a way to solve the research problem an appropriate research methodology should be carried out. In this research the procedure that will be used in describing or explaining climate change in the Philippines is by using change of temperature and precipitation. The capacity of the natural water resources used in Mindanao, Philippines in hydroelectric power generation can be assessed against projected climate change and variability.

21

Based on the above assessment, Quantitative research method will be applied that will primarily base on the measurement of change of temperature and precipitation consequently the estimates of river flow or river runoff. Secondary historical climate data of change in temperature and precipitation from the Philippines government statistics website can be investigated to convert into primary date using regression analysis. To assess the effect of climate change, a model can be develop using this method to provide estimates of potential and actual evapotranspiration in terms of river runoff based on temperature and precipitation change. The effect of climate change on hydrogenation can then be determined by using the expected values for river runoff and the regression analysis. The GCM will indicate annual electricity production. This will show variations of hydro energy production in relationship with variations of river flow or river runoff.

22

REFERENCE LIST

Borrego, M, Douglas, E & Amelink C 2009, Quantitative, qualitative, and mixed research methods in engineering education, Journal of Engineering Education, vol. 98, no. 1, pp. 5366, (online ProQuest Central). Correlation and Regression n.d., viewed 28 September 2012, http://www.surgicalcriticalcare.net/Statistics/correlation.pdf Graciano, A & Raulin, M 2004, Research Methods A Process of Inquiry, 5th edn., Pearson Education Group, Inc., Boston. Harrison, G & Whittington, H 2002, Susceptibility of the Batoka Gorge hydroelectric scheme to climate change, Journal of Hydrology, vol. 264, pp. 230-241, (online Elsevier). Harisson, G, Whittington, H & Gundry, S n.d., Climate change impacts on hydroelectric power, viewed 28 September 2012, www.see.ed.ac.uk/~gph/publications/GPH-Upec98.pdf. Jose, A & Cruz, N 1999, Climate change impacts and responses in the Philippines: water resources, Climate Research, vol. 12, pp. 77-84. Library & Information Science Research 2009, Reliability and validity, vol. 31, pp. 73-74, (online ScienceDirect). Melville, S & Goddard, W 1996, Research Methodology, Juta & Co Ltd, Kenwyn. Munoz J & Sailor, D 1998, A modelling methodology for assessing the impact of climate variability and climatic change on hydroelectric generation, Energy Convers, Mgmt., vol. 39, n0. 14, pp. 1459-1469, (online EbsCohost). Philippine National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) n.d., Atmosphere, viewed 28 September 2012, www.nscb.gov.ph/peenra/Publications/Compendium/atmosphere.pdf. Rajasekar, S, Philominathan, P & Chinnathambi V 2006, Research Methodology, viewed 28 September 2012, arxiv.org/pdf/physics/0601009.pdf. Schloss, P & Smith M 1999, Conducting Research, Prentice-Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River. Yamba, F, Walimwipi H, Jain, S, Zhou, P, Cuamba, B & Mzezewa, C 2011, Climate change/variability implications on hydroelectricity generation in the Zambezi River Basin, Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change, vol. 16, pp. 617-628, (online Springer).

23