A hole in Pain : POPULATION

ANWAR ALI One of the most serious problems that India faces today is the problem of overpopulation. In our country, a baby is born every two seconds i.e., more than 40,000 children are born everyday. If the present tread continues, our population might touch the fantastic figure of a thousand million at the turn of the century. The uneven distribution of population in the world has severely affected the fragile ecological balance in many countries. The unbridled growth of human population has also brought problems like unemployment, urbanization, pollution, etc. Here, in India, it is necessary that the problem of population growth is attacked on a war-footing. The masses have to be motivated and not coerced to adopt family planning. And the best method to motivate is to educate. The education of women, in particular, should receive greater attention of our planners. Television can play a very useful role in this area. Living standards of the people should be raised and health care and educational institutions should be actively involved in the family planning drive to supplement the efforts of the Government. We should not spare any attempt to educate our people and convince them of the benefits-both social and individual-about the check in growth of population as well as calculated steps towards health and prosperity. The statement that our teeming lions have set at naught decades of developmental efforts, overcrowded our cities and rendered living conditions appalling has become trite. Yet, the fact remains that in the face of such obvious chaos all around, population growth continues to be unrelenting. Therefore, any development policy in a developing country must encompass the problem of population growth as also the social, environmental and technological phenomena. This could be done in respect of a country as a whole or on an inter-regional basis within the country. So far, demographic issues have not yet been integrated in our scheme of life. To most of us, vitalism is dominant and life is sacred. It is not yet appreciated that any population strategy will serve in a more effective manner if it is combined with achieving a better quality of life. For the economic planners, an understanding of the socio-economic determinants of population trends is essential in the formulation of appropriate measures and strategies to raise the levels of living. In the primitive societies, where resources were abundant, the rearing of many children into healthy and useful adults was not overtly difficult. The community and the family did not have to count the cost of institutionalized health care and education, for instance. On the other hand, the child contributed to the welfare of the family and community by the work he or she learnt to do at an early age. This still holds good in some parts of the world. In India too it is not easy to counter the poor peasant's argument that the more children he has. The better-off he is. But as we move inexorably towards more development, the investment per child inevitably becomes much greater both for the family and the community. By and large, the biggest increase will be in the poorest countries which are the teast able to support them. As a result of this increase, the availability per person of critical resources such as water, fuel wood and crop land will drop at an unprecedented rate. Even without increased per capita consumption in developing countries, the projected doubling of world population in the next century is likely to further degrade the critical-support systems of the planet. In many areas, population densities by far exceed the carrying capacity of the physical environment and could ultimately threaten the very eco-system on which human survival and economic development depend. Even though the number of children per woman has decreased, the number of women of childbearing age has increased more rapidly. On a national scale, the age structure of a country's population is crucial to development planning efforts. On an international scale, the implications of this rapid population growth are enormous for regional and global environmental issues such as climate change. A very

youthful population such as in most developing countries or an aging population like in many industrialized countries has different implications for future population growth and for social needs. The youthful age structure of the population in much of the developing world would mean that the absolute number of births and the total population will continue to rise rapidly for the next 20 or 30 years, if present trends continue. There is hardly any issue on the global environmental: agenda unaffected- by population growth- Poverty, demographic dynamics, human settlement, fragile ecosy6tehis. Agriculture, biodiversity, pollution of rivers and oceans, and others. Just to survive, burgeoning populations place ever-larger burdens on water, farmland, forests and coastal habitats. As those natural resources deteriorate, "environmental refugees" flee to urban areas, where sanitation and other basic services are overloaded. Already, the beginnings of environmental disasters are being felt. They range from air pollution, faecal contamination of drinking water and hazardous waste pollution, to depletion and degradation of freshwater resources, occupation of high-risk land, and damage to ecosystems and cultural property. Family planning has played an integral role in reducing fertility throughout the world. At present, the total fertility rate (TFR) is thought to stand at 3A children born to the average woman. The situation is worse in India, which has had a family planning programme since 1951. Its population of about 882 million is growing at about 2 14 percent per year, compared to 1.5 per cent per year for China's population billion. India is expected to replace China as the most populous country by 2035. It has a new model plan for improving family planning services, but still has to convert it into action in hundreds of thousands of villages. Its official goal is to reduce the TFR by 50 per cent by the year 2000. In India, due to rampant illiteracy and widespread ignorance a large majority disbelieve that less children are hindrances to their economic interests because, for them it means less work hands. However the reality is that high population growth rates have a negative effect on economic growth rates, especially in developing countries. But there is also the more significant plane at which the output itself is affected by the rate of population growth. This is essentially because of a reduction in savings for investment and diversion of larger amounts of resources to welfare and to indirectly productive investments such as health and education needed to support a shooting population. The Indian state has to sponsor and heavily subsidies these projects not only because it is a welfare state, but also because, if some of these investments are withdrawn, the speed and structure of economic expansion could be impaired by the resultant lower productivity of an uncared labour force. India being a democratic welfare state is committed to provide jobs for as many people as it can. This has lead to over staffing and thereby under employment. Both together synergistically lead to gross inefficiency. This has contributed to both the public sector and the government being in the red. Health conditions around the world have improved more over the past 40 years than in all of previous human history. However the conditions are still bad in the developing countries and they have an adverse impact on family planning (FP). Complications of pregnancy and childbirth claim the lives of about 400,000 women each year in developing countries where maternal mortality ratios are up to 30 times higher than in the highincome nations. According to the World Development Report, while India spends $ 18 billion on health against $ 13 billion in China with a much larger population, health in China is better than in India. While the IMR (Infant Mortality Rate) is 29 per thousand in China, it is as high as 90 per thousand in India. Even the under-five mortality rate is as high as 142 per thousand in India while in China it is just 42 per thousand. In countries with a high IMR couples do not tend to accept contraceptive or sterilization methods, as there is no guarantee for their children surviving. This is one of the three health challenges before the world now, the other two being AIDs and drug resistant strains of disease. It has been estimated that the world will he inhabited by 1.2 billion people above 60

years of age by 2020 AD. And 71% of these are likely to be in the developing world. The older elderly (80 years of age and above) will increase twice as fast as the younger elderly (between 60-8( years. This has happened in Thailand and in Kerala India). In Kerala, the number of people who will be 70 years old in 2020 AD. Is expected to rise to 5.8 per cent from the present 3.2 percent. Indeed, Kerala has the largest number of old age homes in the country. At the national level the figure will jump from 3.3% in 1980 to 5.3% in 200() AD; and 13.3% in 2025 A.D. The basic point that needs to be made is that we are in a disaster situation a far as population is concerned and, therefore, have to make urgent and concerted efforts to bring down the increasing rate of population. The first thing that is needed is a breakthrough in contraceptive technology. If we can put up our own satellites, if we can develop missies that can carry various elements with them, why have our scientists not been able to affect a break-through in contraceptive technology? Western pharmaceutical companies seem to have lost interest in contraceptive technology. This is an area where we must have a major break-through. What we really need is either an anti-pregnancy vaccine, on which Professor Pran Talwar has been working for the last 20 years or a pill which is available like a pill of aspirin. We are still dependent very largely on operative techniques, on vasectomies and tubectomies which are very effective. But they do impinge physically and psychologically upon the most sensitive elements of the human anatomy. If we can get a break-through in non-invasive techniques, it could make a vital difference. The welfare of children, maternal and child health care are absolutely essential for ensuring lower fertility. It may appear to be a contradiction in terms, but the lower child mortality rate, the lower is the growth rate. Where the mortality rate is high, the family tends to have many more children because they are not sure how many are going to survive. Wherever children are well looked after and the mortality rate of the child falls, the fertility rate also falls. Therefore, the integrated child health care programme is extremely important. This involves immunization to pregnant and nursing mothers; nutritional inputs to infants; and a whole gamut of medical and child care facilities up to the age of five. Thirdly, we have to develop some kind of old age insurance or pension. It is all very fine for intellectuals sitting comfortably in cities to say that everybody should have only two children, whether it includes a boy or not. But when we talk of the villages and of poor people, when the girls get married and go away who is actually going to look after those people when they are old? This may not be a fashionable question to ask, but is a valid question, not something which can be dismissed as an outmoded form of thinking. The only way one can deal with it is to develop gradually some kind of an old-age pension for people who, after 60 to 65 years, cannot work, so that they are convinced that there is some sort of a 'safety net' even if they do not" have a male issue. The fourth point is that population control is not something than can be done merely by government or by adopting policies in Parliament. What is required is a mass movement, a National Movement for Population Control. This must involve the Central government. State governments, local bodies, corporations, municipalities, Zila Parishad, and panchayats, because unless these bodies are deeply associated, the nation is not going to get the desired results. It is no use simply talking in urban areas, because in any case small family norms are much more popular there. It is the rural population which must be involved. We should involve not only the Chambers of Commerce and Industry but also the entire industrial sector, the working class sector and organised labour. Labour could be an extremely effective instrument for motivating the working class in view of the concentration of people who can be easily reached. Some progressive and enlightened industrial houses have already started paying attention to population control. We must also invoice nongovernmental organizations, particularly women organizations. For example, the Family Planning Association, of India, which has not branches all over the country, could play a very meaningful role in this context. Women are the key to the whole problem. Apart from these, youth organizations. Trade unions and co-operatives must be associated. We should also put population values into our

educational system. Indeed we should not leave anybody out, including religious leaders. One of the problems faced in the earlier experiment was that a feeling developed, rightly or wrongly, that some communities were deliberately opting out of the family planning process. That feeling, unfortunately, had a very negative impact on others. Actually, the statistical figures did not prove that conclusively, but nonetheless there was a feeling. So if we are really now going to have a second try at the population policy, we have to involve the religious leaders of all communities together. Even in a Roman Catholic country like Italy, the growth rate has fallen despite the strong attitude taken by religious leaders of a certain community there therefore once you get to the people and explain to them that it is in their own interest that they should adopt the small family norm, and if we can go through the religious leaders, the message will be result oriented. In the first few decades since Independence, the slow pace of economic growth ironically ensured a fast rate of population growth. However, in the eighties, there was it significant upswing in growth rates, poising the economy on the threshold of a higher rate of growth in the Eighth five year plan. The acceleration of economic growth has also been accompanied by the launching or fruition of a whole series of programmes of direct poverty alleviation and social development. A Minimum Needs Programme, Rural Employment Guarantee Programmes and family asset creation programmes for those below the poverty line have resulted in a sensible decrease in absolute and relative levels of poverty. In fact, population control should be a subject of national consensus. The damange that has been -done to the national interest by making population control a subject of political controversy is absolutely impossible to compute. Hundreds of billions of rupees have gone to create all the infrastructure that is necessary, but we have already reached such a huge figure that even if our population growth rate begins to fall, it will at least take 25 years before our population begins to stabilize. So the country must realise that it is facing a disaster situation. It is a difficult path, but there are no soft options. We are going through a multi-dimensional crisis in India today. It is an economic crisis, a social crisis, a political crisis, a spiritual crisis. It seems that the great vision of those who led our freedom movement is disappearing, and we seem to be caught in a welter of negative thinking. Many people have virtually given up hope. They may be right, but if we lose hope, then any chance of making it is also lost. We need not only a renewal of interest in population control but also a renewal of faith in ourselves, in our cultural heritage and in the capacity of democracy. The whole world is moving towards democracy, and in our country we find democracy itself is under tremendous pressure.