Initial Coverage SJ Securities Sdn. Bhd.

13 June 2012
PP7084/11/2006

Strictly for internal circulation only

Green Packet Bhd

Company turnaround!

Overweight RM0.86 (+ 69%)

Corporate profile Green Packet Berhad is an international ICT company based in Malaysia. It is a provider of wireless networking, telecommunications products and 4G wireless broadband. GPB operates USA, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, China, Australia, Bahrain, Egypt, Spain, Brazil and Hong Kong. The company was established in 2000 in the Silicon Valley, California and is currently headquartered in Petaling Jaya, Malaysia. Strengthening partnership via equity stake holdings and technology collaborations. Intel and SK telecom are strategic shareholders of Green Packets 57% owned subsidiary. Packet One Networks (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. (P1) with some equity stakes. SK telecom invested a total of about US$100m for 25.8% equity stake as part of a strategic alliance back in June 2010. Intel together with other minority interest has about 17% shareholding stake in P1. P1 also has technology collaboration on LTE with Qualcomm and China Mobile. Aggressive new site rollout. New sites rollout during FY11 saw robust growth up +60% YoY to 1,527 sites from 950 sites. 3Q11 - 1Q12 had a significant 39% increase of 458 new sites rollout. Green Packet has acquired strong standing in Malaysia as a 4G WiMax provider. It has achieved 53% coverage of populated areas in Peninsular Malaysia (as of CY11). Fast growing base sites will ensure that users will have access to P1s 4G network even travelling to different regions in Msia. Perks of having a large amount of base sites ensures that users will stay with P1 therefore improving churn rate. Subscriber base continue to expand. GPB's subscriber base has surpassed the 400k level. Subscribers have grown by 31% in just a year to 401k subscribers in 1Q12 from 305k subscribers in 1QFY11. Catalyst Competitive Advantage Strategic partners Towards Breaking Even Potential listing of P1 Recommendation. We are putting an overweight call on Green Packet Berhad with a target price of RM0.86. The target price is based on a PER of 18x and EPS of 4.8 sen. Our RNAV is RM1.14 and our target price is at 25% discount to this. We see further EPS in future and potential upside in Green Packet Berhad due to its increasing subscriber base and consistent market share capture. The potential listing of Green Packets broadband arm, P1 may even create higher potential upside to GPBs shares if it were to be listed. P1s listing has not been factored into our calculation.

Stock Data Price (RM) Stock code Bloomberg Ticker Listing Share Cap (RM mn) Market Cap (RM mn) Par value (RM) 52-wk high (RM) 52-wk low (RM) Major shareholders
Green Packet Holdings Ltd OSK Ventures International SmallCap World Fund PacificQuest 34.04% 18.38% 8.00% 6.33%

0.51 0082 GRPB MK Main 131.55 332.16 0.20 0.90 0.50

Financial Data 12 month trailing PER (x) BV per share (RM) P/BV (x) ROE (%) Beta (x) Altman Z Score Dividend yield (%)

n.a. 0.26 1.94 -40.07 1.30 -0.42 n.a.

Relative Performance (%) 1-month -10.87 3-month -18.41 6-month -19.58 12-month -37.62 YTD -15.37

Our reports are available for download on SJenie website as stated below. SJ Securities Sdn Bhd A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Bhd www.sjsec.com.my Tel: 603-5192 0202 Fax: 603-5192 8630

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Corporate profile Green Packet Berhad is an international ICT company based in Malaysia. It is a provider of wireless networking, telecommunications products and 4G wireless broadband. GPB operates in USA, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, China, Australia, Bahrain, Egypt, Spain, Brazil and Hong Kong. The company was established in 2000 and is headquartered in Petaling Jaya, Malaysia.

Green Packet Berhad is engaged in the business of research, development, marketing and distribution of wireless networking and telecommunication products, networking solutions and other high technology products and services. The company operations are categorized into two core business pillars, which include the Solutions Pillar and Converged Communications Services Pillar. History The company was founded by Group Managing Director cum Group CEO, Puan Chan Cheong in year 1999 in the Silicon Valley. CC Puan maintained a small R&D team in the US and moved the operation to Malaysia. It has helped the company to reduce costs of operation reduced substantially, and target on new emerging markets, namely China and Southeast Asian countries. Green Packet was listed on the MESDAQ market of the Malaysian bourse on 25th May 2005. Two years later on 18th July 2007, Green Packet transferred to the Main Market. Key Management Chairman (Tan Sri Datuk Dr. Haji Omar Bin Abdul Rahman). He has held the position of Chairman in GPB since 2004. In 1984, Tan Sri Omar was appointed to the new position of Science Advisor in the Prime Ministers Department. He was the founder chairman of Technology Park Malaysia Corporation, the Malaysian IndustryGovernment Group for High Technology, Composite Technology Malaysia Sdn Bhd and Malaysian Technology Development Corporation. His directorships in other public companies include Kotra Industries Berhad, Great Wall Plastic Industries Berhad, OSK Ventures International Berhad, BCT Technology Berhad and GW Plastics Holdings Berhad. Group Managing Director (Puan Chan Cheong). He was appointed as the CEO of GPB since 2003. He co-founded Green Packet Inc. in the USA. He has more than 17 years of diversified business experience in consulting, and the development and management of large-scale telecommunications infrastructure and property projects internationally. He holds 34.80% an indirect interest in GPB.

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Securing various large oversea players. Green Packet has more than 80 deployments in over 50 countries. 83% of its businesses are secured from the international market with over 60% market penetration in the top 18 Wimax operators'. It has 12% global market share in Wimax CPEs. It has so far penetrated into the toughest Wimax market where bigger players exist such as Aria and Max Telecom. Green Packet is world no.3 Wimax device vendor and also Asia no.1 Connection Management Softwares Company. Green Packet have contracts secured with a number of large companies around the world that are China Mobile which is world largest mobile telco, Time Warner Cable who is 2nd largest cable operator in US, Telefonica 4th largest operator, PCCW the largest telco in Hong Kong, Mobily 2nd largest mobile operator in Saudi, SMART the largest mobile operator in Philippines and China Unicom the 2nd largest mobile operator in China. GPB is currently in trial with a few companies that include Vodafone (World 2nd largest mobile operator), Orange and Singtel. Strengthening partnership via equity stake holdings and technology collaborations. Intel and SK telecom are strategic shareholders of Green Packets 57% owned subsidiary. Packet One Networks (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. (P1) with some equity stakes. SK telecom invested a total of about US$100m for 25.8% equity stake as part of a strategic alliance back in June 2010. Intel together with other minority interest has about 17% shareholding stake in P1. P1 also has technology collaboration on LTE with Qualcomm and China Mobile. Business Overview Solutions Pillar: Green Packet solutions pillar is engaged in developing and providing Software, VAS, Network and Devices which empowers Fixed Line, Mobile, VoIP and WiMax operators. GPB currently stands as the worlds third largest vendor of WiMAX devices and Asias No.1 connection management software solution, serving over 80 Operators in over 50 countries. Converged Communications Services Pillar: The group serves as owner and operator of broadband wireless access and next generation voice services, discounted telephony, and voice wholesale services, which enables the group to offer full range telecommunications services under the Converged Communications Services Pillar. As the first in the Asia Pacific to deploy 802.16e 2.3GHz WiMAX and amongst pioneers in the world, the group currently serves over 401k subscribers under 53% area coverage in Peninsular Malaysia.

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600.0 400.0 200.0

Annual Revenue & Profit

Revenue

0.0 2007 (200.0) (400.0) 2008 2009 2010 2011

Operating profit/(loss) Profit/(Loss) att to shareholders

180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0

Quarterly Revenue

Revenue Segmentation 1QFY11 1QFY12 RM Mn RM Mn Software and devices 47.2 22.3 Broadband services 56.2 85.4 Communication services 18.2 20.5 Total 121.6 128.2

RM

Change % -52.8 52.0 12.6 5.4

Broadband services boost total revenue. Broadband services showed favorable growth as subscribers base had increase to 401k subscribers in 1QFY12 compare to 305k subscribers in 1QFY11. Communication services also posted positive revenue growth seeing that it secured new customers accounts on its international wholesale voice business. However, software and devices revenue down 53% due to lower CPE shipment of 90,952 units of devices compare to 188,858 units in 1QFY12, some spillover orders from 4QFY10 had also attributed to spike in revenue for 1QFY10. Standing Strong in Broadband Markets Green Packet along together with three other companies were awarded the 2.3Ghz band WiMax spectrum in year 2007, in which only two companies including Green Packet has successfully conducted commercial rollout of the 4G Network in Peninsular Malaysia. As of today, Green Packet has acquired strong standing in Malaysia as 4G WiMax network service provider. The company achieved 53% coverage of populated areas in Peninsular Malaysia by the end of year 2011. Technology and Product Diversification. While GPBs 4G wireless broadband has been rolled out and performing well. Management expressed that its next move is to penetrate into the business broadband segment leveraging on its fiber broadband services. In March 2012, GPB launched its new fiber broadband offering called the OneBiz fiber plan. Plans are offered at premium that is aimed to bring up ARPU. Management announced it is looking forward to further diversify into fixed voice, content and value-added services to emerge as an all-in-one service provider.

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New sites rollout

Source: GPB

Aggressive new site rollout. New sites rollout during FY11 saw robust growth up +60% YoY to 1,527 sites from 950 sites. 3Q11 - 1Q12 had a significant 39% increase of 458 new sites rollout. Green Packet has acquired strong standing in Malaysia as a 4G WiMax provider. It has achieved 53% coverage of populated areas in Peninsular Malaysia (as of CY11). Fast growing base sites will ensure that users will have access to P1s 4G network even travelling to East Coast of Malaysia. The perks of having a large amount of base sites ensures that users will stay with P1 hence improving churn rate. Subscriber base continue to expand. GPB's subscriber base has surpassed the 400k level. Subscribers have grown by 31% in just a year to 401k subscribers in 1Q12 from 305k subscribers in 1QFY11. Churn rate ARPU

Churn rate improves and ARPU declines. GPB's churn rate improved to 5.3% in 1Q12 mainly due to more mixture of fixed broadband subscribers compare to nomadic while contract period commitment was imposed on most broadband packages. Postpaid average revenue per user grew to RM81 in 4Q11 however declined slightly to RM78 in 1QFY12. GPBs ARPU is 14% higher than industry average. Based on 1QFY12 ARPU figures for mobile broadband players, P1 ARPU for 1QFY12 was RM78, 14% higher compare to the other mobile broadband players which is at RM68. GPBs ARPU is higher than industry average.

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Broadband market share

P1 Subscribers

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% CY08 TM (Streamyx) Maxis Others
Source: GPB
20% 13% 8.20% 0% 3.50% 0.50% 0.00% 10.10% 8.90% 5.30% 1.60% 0% 21% 14.80% 8.80% 6.90% 5.30% 1% 55% 42% 35%

Thousands
19% 13.80% 12.40% 8.80% 6.50% 5%

80%

75%

500 400 300 200 100 0

CY09 TM (Unifi) P1

CY10 Celcom DiGi

CY11

CY08

CY09

CY10

CY11

3MCY12

P1 holds 8.8% market share with 401k subscribers. Market share statistics show that P1 increased its market share up 8.8% in CY11 from 6.9% in CY10 that is an increase of 114k subscribers of one year. GPB has been constantly capturing market share in the broadband industry. GPB started off with only 9k subscribers way back in 2008, and in just merely four years it has garnered 401k subscribers latest in 1Q 2012, it is a 4-year CAGR of 156%. TM's streamyx subscribers continue to slide down as time goes on showing that subscribers are either hopping onto other Telcos or shifting to TMs Unifi service. DiGi has been fairly increasing its market share as well over the years however its subscriber base is not as broad as P1s. The group is looking forward to record higher market share in coming financial year on following catalysts, which includes 1) coverage expansion with more site rollout in plan, 2) introduction of new internet services plans, 3) strong and bold marketing approach. Peer Comparison Forward Net P/B P/E Asset Mn 25.25 1.96 169 19.78 5.87 8,088 14.93 2.23 21,121 17.73 25.23 1,411 22.55 2.76 7,132 20.05 7.61 7,585

Name Green Packet Bhd Maxis Bhd Axiata Group Bhd Digi.com Bhd Telekom Malaysia Bhd Average
Source: Bloomberg

P/E N/A 18.56 19.00 24.89 15.07 19.38

Mkt Cap 332 47,325 45,514 31,022 19,282 28,695

Beta 0.60 0.70 0.93 0.93 0.77 0.79

Dvd Yld % 0.00 6.32 3.57 4.80 3.64 3.67

Catalysts Competitive Advantage. Despite competing with bigger players of the industry, Green Packet enjoys a competitive advantage with its strategic business positioning. As the first WiMax Telco in Malaysia, the group benefited from 1) faster network speed, 2) lower capital expenditure (CAPEX) requirement compared to 3G and 3.5G service providers, 3) location flexibility and ease of use, 4) barrier of entry with license requirement. Other than that, the new Fiber Broadband also offers competitive advantage with only 2 players at the moment and cost saving by leasing of existing infrastructure from Telekom Malaysia. Unlike public companies, GPB will not have to build infrastructure in non-profitable areas. However, Green Packet would still face the challenge to increase spectrum allocation in order to increase coverage and network quality. Strategic partners. Over the years, Green Packet has formalized a number of strategic partners from various countries. It helped the group in culturing better

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efficiency while reducing cost. Some of the groups significant strategic shareholders include the international worldwide known companies such as Intel and SK Telecom, Towards Breaking Even. Since the rollout of 4G Broadband in FY08, Green Packet has been recording net losses under the pressure of high capital expenditure. However, the group has been experiencing continuous revenue growth for 13 consecutive quarters. Besides, annual revenue increased 5 folds from RM87.5 million to RM539.6 million within four years. Annual revenue 5-years compound annual growth rate (CAGR) achieved 34.5 percent, while 4-years CAGR hitting 57.6 percent. The impressive growth is mainly contributed by the Broadband Services segment that accounts for over 50% of total revenue. Possible listing of P1. There is potential upside to GPBs stock performance if it were to make listing for P1. According to Star Business, CC Puan said that there is no such plan yet however he is not ruling out the potential listing of P1 in the future roadmap. He also mentioned there may be a possible consolidation in the industry in the future as there will be a need to combine spectrum. We feel that the listing of P1 will be positive to Green Packet as it may unlock access to huge capital for further working capital and possible M&As.

Risk Factors 1. Currency fluctuation. Adverse currency movement will result in foreign exchange losses for exports and international businesses. 2. Introduction of new technology. Existing technology might turn obsolete with rapid technology advancement. Survival of business depends on ability to catch up with the latest technology. Future plans 1. Green Packet will be focusing on expanding coverage and services via its P1 2.0 Evolution addressing three major areas, namely Offering the Best of Both Worlds, Spearheading 4G TD LTE, Bridging the Great Business Divide. 2. The group is looking forward to penetrate in to voice, content and VAS business alongside with 4G broadband, to emerge as leading 4G Telco player. We see huge potential in the voice and content business as mobile broadband capable as a substitute. Recommendation. We are putting an overweight call on Green Packet Berhad with a target price of RM0.86. The target price is based on a PER of 18x and EPS of 4.8 sen. Our RNAV is RM1.14 and our target price is at 25% discount to this. We see further EPS in future and potential upside in Green Packet Berhad due to its increasing subscriber base and consistent market share capture. The potential listing of Green Packets broadband arm, P1 may even create higher potential upside to GPBs shares if it were to be listed. P1s listing has not been factored into our calculation.

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FYE 31st Dec Revenue Cost of Sales Gross profit Other income Administrative expenses Selling and marketing expenses EBITDA Operating profit Finance cost Depreciation & amortisation Associates Profit before tax Taxation Net profit Outstanding shares EPS Growth Gross profit Operating profit PBT PAT

Financial Highlights 2008 2009 RM mn 87.5 217.8 RM mn (64.9) (137.6) RM mn 22.6 80.2 RM mn 14.4 3.2 RM mn (54.6) (63.7) RM mn (11.0) (105.3) RM mn 29.3 (55.9) RM mn (48.7) (174.2) RM mn (0.4) (10.1) RM mn (20.1) (88.6) RM mn (9.5) (0.7) RM mn (58.6) (185.0) RM mn (1.7) (2.4) RM mn (60.3) (187.4) mn sen 657.8 (9.2) 657.8 (28.5)

2010 394.0 (216.5) 177.5 1.3 (32.7) (62.8) (129.4) (191.9) (16.0) (275.4) (17.9) (225.9) 0.3 (225.6) 657.8 (34.3)

2011 538.5 (244.4) 294.2 9.8 (31.3) (125.0) (111.0) (145.4) (32.4) (293.0) 0.0 (177.8) 0.1 (177.7) 657.8 (27.0)

2012F 673.2 (275.0) 398.2 3.5 (30.3) (118.8) 16.5 (25.8) (34.0) (278.3) 0.0 (59.7) (0.2) (59.9) 657.8 (9.1)

2013F 794.3 (317.7) 476.6 4.2 (32.6) (106.9) 82.7 65.7 (35.7) (275.6) 0.0 30.1 1.5 31.6 657.8 657.8 4.8

% % % %

254.7 257.7 215.4 210.8

121.2 10.2 22.1 20.4

65.7 (24.2) (21.3) (21.2)

35.4 (82.3) (66.4) (66.3)

19.7 355.3 150.3 152.7

*EPS has been adjusted to the latest outstanding shares as of 7/6/12

Share Performance

Source: Bloomberg

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Appendix 1: Corporate structure

Source: GPB

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Appendix 2: Corporate timeline

2007 2008 2011 MCMC awards P1 with the 2.3Ghz band WiMax license. P1 was one of four companies in Malaysia that won the bid for the license. First major project rollout, namely Wireless@KL in partnership with Kuala Lumpur City Hall and SKMM. Intel announced its RM50m investment in P1, both worked together to deploy Malaysia's first nationwide WiMax network. Sunway Group appointed P1 for the Wireless@Sunway project, transforming Bandar Sunway the first integrated wireless township in M'sia serving 30,000 residents and two million visitors. Official launch of P1 WiMax, with the launch, P1 became Malaysia's first WiMax telco. Penang gov't and P1 deployed WiMax@Penang project. Subsequently expand coverage to Johor. Johor became the first state outside Klang Valley to have WiMax. P1 completes interconnect agreements with Telekom, Celcom, DiGi and Maxis. P1 formalized deal with ZTE Corp. to complete - Phase 2 National WiMax network rollout plan. Official launching of 4G WiMax service commercial based in Penang as well as P1 P1TSTOP, a one-stop centre and hub for northern region's operations. Wiggy introduced supporting DL speeds up to 10Mbps. Introduced latest integrated WiFi and Voice functionality modem DV230 to deliver truly wireless, hasslefree internet connectivity to multiple users from one device with just one connection. WiMax service coverage expanded to Ipoh, Kuantan and Kuala Terengganu with 8 out of 14 states covered with P1 WiMax. Celebrates first-year anniversary and surpassing 80,000 subscribers after launching just a year ago. P1 launched the P1 Malaysian Filmmakers' Showcase in support of local arts and talent. The much talked-about and highly successful "Potong" campaign was launched. P1 bagged the2009 MSC Malaysia's APICTA Best of Start-Up companies. Obtained approval from MCMC to provide coverage in East Malaysia. P1 was granted RM50m from MDV, wholly owned subsidiary of MOF as a support to provide broadband nationwide. Partners with POS Malaysia allowing subscribers to make bill payments, registration as well as top-up credits at over 600 POS Malaysia outlets around Peninsular. Awards full turnkey contract - Phase 3 network expansion to ZTE Malaysia and ZTE Corp, contract valued at US$76m to deploy WiMax network to cover 65% Malaysian population by 2012. Awarded the "Most Promising Service Provider of the Year" by Frost & Sullivan. Completes world's first 2.3Ghz WiMax Community Broadband Centre ahead of schedule to provide WiMax services to 3,500 homes and over 21,000 settlers in FELDA settlement areas. SK Telecom emerged as second largest shareholder after acquiring 25% equity stake in P1 for US$100m. Intel and P1 launched WiMax ready 4G laptops in a step to achieve 50% broadband penetration by end of 2010. P1 launched 3-in-1 WiMax 4G modem with built-in WiFi, voice ports, and LAN for enhanced 4G broadband experiences. P1 celebrated its 2nd anniversary in achieving - 1) company value of RM1.3b 2) over 200,000 subscribers 3) 40$ population coverage in Peninsular. WiMax service rebranded to P1 4G that was previously known as P1 W1MAX. New powerful devices e.g. MiFi, and VFM (value for money) packages were launched over the period of six months. P1 reached over 280,000 subscribers for its 4G broadband. 4G service rolls out to provide internet connectivity to 6,300 students at Insaniah University College. P1 became the host of the world's first WIMAX-Long Term Evolution Time Division Duplex (LTE TDD) showcasing technology of reaching impressive speeds up to 130Mbps on a 20MHz band. Major shareholders SK Telecom and Green Packet Berhad further invested RM201.6m in P1 to accelerate expansion of 4G WiMax/TD-LTE networks. P1 and Qualcomm signed MOU to collaborate on the deployment of LTE TDD technology in Malaysia. China Mobile and P1 to cooperate to spearhead TD-LTE technology in Malaysia and South East Asia. Launched One Plan bundles 4G modem with WiFi and 4G-on-the-go modem. Signed agreement with eight State-backed companies under Persatuan Penyedia Infrastruktur Telekomunikasi (PPIT) to further boost 4G-service provision in the country. P1 currently covers 45% of the population and aims to hit 65% by end-of-2012. Shukor Karim was appointed the new Chairman of the Board. Telekom Malaysia and P1 joined forces to deliver HSBB to all Malaysians. P1 now have access to all 1.3m homes covered by the HSBB areas nationwide. 4G Experience Centre and Test Lab to be established in early 2012 at P1's HQ known as Packet Hub where blazing wireless speeds of 120Mbps and beyond are opened to operators and vendors who wishes to utilize the facility. To be fully IPv6 ready by end of the year in bracing for depletion of IPv4 internet addresses. Two phases out of three has been completed under the compliance exercise. Garnered subscriber base over 350,000 users in Malaysia, and aiming to cross the 500,000 mark by yearend. Unveiled P1 2.0 Evolution plan which will address major areas by 1) Offering the best of both worlds, 2) Spearheading 4G TD LTE, 3) Bridging the great business divide.

2009

2010

2012

Source: GPB

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