ESSAYS (i) There are Lies, Damned lies and Statistics In every walk of life there are optimists

and pessimists, when the optimists see sunshine in every walk of life the pessimist see darkness in everything. So is the case of statistics. There are many who sing the praises of the uses of statistics and there are those who condemn statistics. No doubt each has his own arguments for and against. According to many, statistics is a science dealing with the collection and editing of data. It deals with the methods employed for the above. It also stands for the analysis and interpretation of data collected. It is an applied science which draws inferences for future use on the basis of the collected, analyzed and interpreted data. In each step human hand and mind work. Hence errors are bound to creep in. While collecting data the investigator himself may be biased giving a distributed picture of the data, he may be ignorant and untrained giving wrong data, he may be insincere and not doing his work properly, resulting in wrong incomplete data. There may be lack of time and money which also results in wrong data. Then the informant may be biased, ignorant and reluctant to give correct data. He may fabricate things or suppress things. In both the cases mistakes creep in. Thus a wring sample might have been chosen. When an enquiry is conducted it is difficult to get perfect samples which will contain all cross sections. Which is true for one part may be false for the other. Besides in statistics the usual procedure is to make decision for the whole population on the basis of the collected data on a small group. This is drawing inference from part to the whole. Even if the data were collected by expert investigators, from correct informants, using correct statistical methods mistakes can creep in. For wrong figures, incomplete figures may be noted down. For eg: the age of a lady may be put down as 71 instead of 17; A profit of 100000 may turn out to be something else of any zero is added or omitted. Hence figures which support a particular statement may be incomplete, inaccurate, or deliberately manipulated.

Even if data is collected with great care, so that maximum care is taken to see that errors are avoided, while classifying and editing, errors may creep in. The analysis and interpretation may be wrong. The inferences drawn from it may not be true. Statistics has got a big drawback that it can disprove anything, though not capable of proving anything. For with the same data different people can twist the data to prove their own arguments. A government can use data, i.e. its failures to discredit the opposition party and vice versa. Besides statistics does not tell the whole story, collection of data has been done in a haphazard manner omitting many important things. Sometimes data are collected for a specific purpose, which means certain facts are magnified. This technique is usually done by businessmen. They magnify the good quality of their products while not mentioning the ill effects, which in turn is a big lie. Another big blunder is using statistics collected for a particular purpose in another context. Hence we will be tempted to say like many doesAn ounce of truth will produce a ton of statistics. or Statistics are the lies of the first order or There are lies, damned lies and statistics. But the other side of it is Figures dont lie Figures are innocent. No doubt figures cannot lie for themselves. Figures do not bear a trade mark of accuracy or inaccuracy. If there are mistakes they are because of faulty methods, false personnels, false judgments, biased moods, insincere people who break truths, who speak half truths which eventually turn out to be a lie. Remember statistics as a branch of science which does not prove or disprove anything. It is only a tool in the hands of men. It is only and approach. Use the tool correctly, with a right approach, Statistics is bound to be a boon to man. A lay man has therefore to be very cautious in using statistics; he must weigh the pros and cons and then use it. Hence we can conclude that He who accepts statistics indiscriminately will often be duped unnecessarily, but he who distrusts statistics indiscriminately will often be ignorant unnecessarily

(For the above essay mention certain uses and point out that modern man cannot do away with statistics. For Government can run only with statistics: Manpower, resources etc Businesses can flourish only with statistics : Business forecasting, Quality control, testing, advertising etc) A common man cannot be without statistics. His day to day selection is done based on statistics. As a consumer he has to be bothered about statistics, to get good products. . As a citizen he expects the government to run well. He expects many facilities like food shelter, clothing, transport and education. All these are based on statistical data. Hence a man cannot distrust statistics completely, whatever might be its fault. (ii) Limitations of Statistics a. It does not study qualitative data. It can be applied only to those problems which are capable of quantitative expression. It cannot measure culture, civilization, religious faiths of people, though it can collect qualitative data of the same. b. It does not reveal the entire story. Incomplete data, biased data, data collected from sample, may not be true for the population. c. Statistical laws are not universal it is not proved like other laws of science d. Lots of mistakes creep in - errors in collecting, editing data, manipulating data and so on e. It is likely to be misused. Data collected for a particular problem may be utilized for another. f. It does not study individuals it is only concerned with used aggregates (iii) a. b. Importance and Use of Statistics It is a branch of science that supplies data - which is the life substance of the program. A government cannot run well with proper statistics Statistics of the people , then economic conditions, the resources of the country, agriculture, trade, business, weather forecast, war fare, education and so on

(iv)

Businessmen cannot be without Statistics explain ? A businessman has always to make decisions in the face of uncertainty; the decision making is done by the support of statistics. The success of products both in the short as well as the long periods depends to a great extent on the quality of sales forecast and projections. The sales forecasts may be made in one or more various ways. A companys regional offices may make estimates of sales in the respective areas. The regional estimates may be subjected to statistical treatment and then the final forecasts are made. These forecasts may further be recast in light of statistical estimated variations in aggregate market variations under the impact of economic programming at the national level. Effective control of sales can also be exercised. Market research, Consumer preference studies, trade channel studies and readership surveys are methods of sales control which use statistical tools. Statistical tools can also be used to avoid errors in processes like weighing every article and so on. It saves labor, time and money, for in testing only samples are tested. It eliminates waste for only food demanded by the consumer is produced. It gives a correlation between time demand and supply. Statistics also tell about the boom or depression of a business. Advertisements are done through statistics. It creates a feeling in the minds of the observer that the products are made usable for their daily life. Business depends on Bank, Stock exchange, insurance companies, which in turn depend on statistics.

(v)

Social Sciences They progress because of research; this is facilitated because of statistics. Public opinion is collected by statistics, Scholastic performance findings in these fields are done by statistics. Statistics & Economics Statistics and economics are like two sides of a coin. Most of the economic laws are based on statistical principles and methods. Even astronomy and metrology use statistical facts. To an ordinary man statistics Enlarges his human experience

It simplifies complex matter to him , making them manageable and understandable It foretells problems suggesting solutions It gives need for planning, in short it is and aid to prospecting