Agricultural Research Center

Central Lab. for Agric. Climate

Food and Agriculture

Organization
of the United Nations

Submitted to Inception Workshop

Monitoring of climate change risk impacts of sea level rise on groundwater and
agriculture in the Nile delta
December 26, 2011

Climate change impacts and adaptation of

the agriculture sector in Egypt

Climate change is a change in the statistical distribution

of weather over periods of time that range from
decades to millions of years.

Global warming is the increase in the average
temperature of Earth near-surface air and oceans.

There is a "Natural" GHG effect that keeps the Earth's

climate warm and habitable
GHG are in the earths atmosphere.
- Some solar radiation is absorbed by GHG
- Some reaches the earth and is absorbed by its surfaces.

In both cases, light is absorbed as heat.

Earths surfaces, warmed by:- Solar radiation
- Warmth from deep within the earth
where some is absorbed and some passes out into deep
space. The enhanced greenhouse effect occurs when more
heat is absorbed by the atmosphere, due to increased
greenhouse gases, than can pass by convection into space in
a normal manner

)(
.
14

. 18

."

Greenhouse
Increasing greenhouse
gases trap moreeffect
heat

Greenhouse Gas

Life time Year

Carbon Dioxide

Methane

12

Nitrous Oxide

114

Carbon Equivalents

potentials GWP

Carbon dioxide (CO2)

Methane (CH4)

21

Nitrous oxide (N2O)

310

Hydrofluorocarbon (HFC)134a

1300

CH4

N2O

PFCs

HFCs

SF6

CO

NOx

New Greenhouse Gas

Nitrogen trifluoride, known as NF3, is "17,000
times more potent a greenhouse gas than
carbon dioxide

CO2

SOx

The Ten Hottest Years on Record Have Occured

in the Last 14 Years and the Hot of All is 2005

(1860 14
)2005

Targets
1. Keep global temperature increase below 2
degrees Celsius
2. Annex 1 (developed) countries should cut year2020 GHG emissions 25-40 % or more beneath
1990 levels
3. Fast-growing economies should also reduce
emissions by 2020
4. Low-income developing countries should limit
emissions growth

Issues in reference to the

negotiations are:
Mitigation
Adaptation (funds)
Technology transfer and Access to Finance

REDD

Bali Action Plan

Shared vision

Mitigation
Adaptation
Finance
Technology
Capacity-building]

The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change

Working Group I (WG I) assesses the physical scientific aspects of the climate
system and climate change.
.

Working Group II (WG II) assesses the vulnerability of socio-economic and natural
systems to climate change, negative and positive consequences of climate change,
and options for adapting

Working Group III (WG III) assesses options for mitigating climate change through
limiting or preventing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing activities that remove
them from the atmosphere.

Reports
Four Assessment Reports have been completed in 1990,
1995, 2001 and 2007
Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) end of 2014
The Nobel Foundation
IPCC honoured with the
2007 Nobel Peace Prize

77

( )Annex 1
%40-30 .1990

.
()Adaptation
(.)Mitigation

( MRV ).

.

.

Alliance of Small Island States

1.5

%50 .1990

.
.

1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

COP
COP
COP
COP
COP
COP
COP
COP
COP
COP
COP
COP
COP
COP
COP
COP
COP
COP

1,
2,
3,
4,
5,
6,
6,
7,
8,
9,
10,
11/
12/
13/
14/
15/
16/
17/

The Berlin Mandate

Geneva, Switzerland
The Kyoto Protocol
Buenos Aires
Bonn, Germany
The Hague, Netherlands
Bonn, Germany
Marrakech, Morocco
New Delhi, India
Milan, Italy
Buenos Aires, Argentina
MOP 1, Montreal, Canada
MOP 2, Nairobi, Kenya
MOP 3, Bali, Indonesia
MOP 4, Pozna, Poland
MOP 5, Copenhagen
MOP 6, Mexico
MOP 7, South Africa

Dark green indicates the countries that have signed and ratified the treaty

187

Red is no intention to ratify (United States )

Grey is not yet decided (Afghanistan San Marino-Andorra- Palestinian Authority-

Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic-Somalia-republic of china Taiwan-Vatican City)

Key outcomes of Durban

AWG-KP

Second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol

shall begin on 1 January 2013 (and end either on 31
December 2017 or 31 December 2020, to be decided by
AWG-KP 17)

Others

Finance: some progress in opretionalization of Standing

Committee of Green Climate Fund
Adaptation: Adaptation Committee shall operate under the
authority of, and be accountable to, the COP
Technology: Enhancement in the establishment of Climate
Technology Centers and Networks (CTCN) and to elaborate
its modalities and procedures of work
Some developing countries accepted to have
commitments (conditioned) e.g. China, by 2020

1.

Drylands are home to over 2 billion

people or 35% of the world's

population.
2.

54% of dryland inhabitants live in

rural areas.

3.

Approximately half of all people living

WRI. 2002. World Resources Institute. Drylands,

People, and Ecosystem Goods and Services: A Webbased Geospatial Analysis. Available online at:
http://www.wri.org.

in poverty are in drylands.

4.

Drylands populations had the highest

population growth rates.

Inception workshop, May 5, 2009

Climate change impacts are anticipated across Africa

Fires
Flood risk
Water shortage
Sea-level rise hazards
Fisheries disruption
Malaria risk

Based on IPCC AR4 (projections for 2080-2099) and other sources

 (.)4.0 -1.5

.

.

Higher temperatures

More extreme heat

More precipitation

More severe storms

More floods

More droughts

http://www.census.gov

Agriculture Share %

27.11

38.37
1981/1984

28.38
36.05
30.16

33.14

1985/1989

1990/1994
1995/1999
2000/2004
2005/2009

 15% of GDP.
30% of labor force.
20% of the country's exports.

More than 50% of the Egyptian population

live in rural areas.
Land acreage per ownership: small to
medium (less than 0.4 ha to less than 2 ha)
Cultivated area: 8.6 million feddan (3.58
Million ha).
Cropped area: 15.2 million feddan. (6.33
Million ha).
Intensification rate % = 177
winter summer and Nili crops

 Nile river banks and in the Delta [Old Lands]: 80%.

Reclaimed land in desert areas [New Lands]: 20%.
Egypt grows a wide variety of field, vegetable and
fruit crops.
Agriculture Uses > 80% of the total annual water
budget.
Irrigated area about 98 % from total agriculture area
is under fixed irrigation system.

49
41
20 18

16
8
Turkey

Malta

Libya

Lebanon

Italy

Israel

Cyprus

13

Tunisia

22

Syria

28

10

Greece

20

24

Spain

28

Morocco

37

40

France

60

Algeria

For that the On-farm irrigation

in Egypt it's a unique case

80

Albania

Surface irrigation systems (50% efficiency).

Irrigated area (%)

Irrigation source: Nile

98

100

Egypt

Mixed crop pattern (field crops- vegetables- fruits)

The amount of water available per person in cubic metres.

(m)
Year
m3

1955
2,561

1990
1,123

2011
720

2025
545

Egypt's population of 58 Million in 1955 is expected to reach 101

Million in 2025 and is already approaching water scarcity.

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

1985

1984

1983

1982

1981

1980

1979

1978

1977

1976

1975

0.4

0.0

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

1985

1984

1983

1982

1981

1980

1.6

1979

T min

1978

-0.5

1977

0.0

1976

1975

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

1985

1984

1983

1982

1981

1980

1979

1978

1977

1976

1975

1.0

T max

0.5

1.5

T mean

1.0

-1.0

0.5

2.0

0.0

-0.5

1.2

0.8

-1.0

-1.5

)/( 2010

)/( 2009

20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0

2009

2010

18.2

16.7

8.2-

18.9

16.6

12.2-

18.0

14.1

21.9-

18.3

16.2

11.6-

14.8

12.8

13.7-

18.1

15.9

11.8-

40

30

35

25

20

14 %
9%

4%

7%

9%
-2%
-2%

Impact of cc on
evapotranspiration

Higher temperatures
- Shorting duration phase
- Growing season lengthened
by 5- 10 days
- Earlier flowering dates
-Increase ET rate 5%/C
Frequency of heat waves
Pollination
Increase night-minimum
temperatures
Decrease net production

Reasons for concern in crop production

change on
crops
productivity

Changes in land use

Change in land productivity
Changes in water requirements
Deterioration of soils
Deterioration of environmental quality and ecosystems
Pests and diseases

Change in major crop

production year 2050 due to
climate change.

Source: SADS, 2009

Main food
commodities
Wheat
Milled rice
Maize
Sugar
Faba beans
Potatoes
Tomatoes
Citrus
Grape
Milk
Red meat
White meat
Eggs
Fish

Prod.
(1,000 tons)
7388
4553
6300
1487
301
2793
7888
3594
1783
4400
670
850
240
971

Requirements
(1,000 tons)
13591
3273
11900
1933
578
1548
7623
2672
1294
4859
1001
847
240
1001

Self-suf.
(%)
54.4
139.1
53.2
76.9
52.1
180.4
103.5
134.5
128.5
90.6
66.9
100.4
100
97

Crop

Climate change
conditions
Change
Deficit
%

(Mt)

Wheat

-18

-1.435869

Maize

-19

-1.198150

Sorghum

-19

-0.163115

Tomatoes

-51

-1.965311

Rice

-11

-0.796457

Soybean

-28

-0.008167

Sunflower

-29

-0.005913

Sugarcane

-25

-4.117555

Pests and diseases and

climate change
Weeds, insect pests, and diseases
damage about one half of the potential
production every year

Pesticides are a big problem

Pest are becoming resistant to
pesticides
Climate change conditions are more
favourable to pests


Weeds have been estimated to cause
annual crop production losses of about
12%

Forecasting of severity of leaf and

stripe rust diseases of wheat

Crop diseases

Stripe rust

Governorate

Leaf rust %

Stripe rust %

2006

2050

2006

2050

Ismailia

62.3

64.6

44.5

41.8

Sharkia

60.2

64.6

38.3

41.8

Bohaira

61.4

63.8

49.9

39.6

Gharbia

58.6

59.2

36.9

35.2

Kaf El-Sheikh

61.5

62.3

44.5

40.03

Dakahlia

61.8

63.8

41.6

38.5

Fayoum

11.2

12.03

11.3

8.27

Beni- Swief

9.27

10.27

5.7

4.5

Leaf rust

Wet and warm vegetation promotes the

germination of spores and the proliferation
of fungi and bacteria, and influences the
lifecycle of soil nematodes
Abolmaaty,S. M., 2006. Assessment of the impact of climate change on some rust diseases for wheat crops under Egyptian environmental
conditions. Ph.D. Thesis, Faculty of Agriculture, Al-Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt.

Changing feed and water availability and price

Changes in drinking water
Changing the distribution of livestock diseases and
pests
The direct effects of weather and extreme events on
animal health, growth and reproduction

Climate affects animal production (need for

adaptation)
Animal production affects climate (need for
mitigation)
Emissions of methane and nitrous oxide

Which Cow Will Be Affected More by the Sun?

Higher temperatures
More droughts
SLR
Heat waves
Water salinity

lectures (Mr. Al Gore)

/





.
increases in global
average air and ocean
temperatures,
widespread melting of
snow and ice, and
rising global mean sea
level.

Agriculture in the Nile Delta

Agriculture in the Nile Delta why it's a

unique case?

2.4% of total area of Egypt. (8 Governorates)

Has about one half of the total cultivated area (about 4.3 million Feddan).
Has 53% of the total population.
More than 65% contribution in the national agricultural production.
About 93 % of the total Delta land is "old land (clay soil/ heavy- Medium ).
Irrigation source: Nile -Surface irrigation systems (50% efficiency).
Mixed crop pattern (field crops- vegetables- fruits)
Land acreage per ownership: small to medium (less than 0.4 ha to less than 2 ha).

Prof. Adel El-Beltagy, Copenhagen, COP15

Impact of climate change on SLR in relation to land loss in the Nile Delta on 2030,
2060, and 2100 using) A1 scenario (medium aerosol level).
2030

2060

2100

Land Loss due to (SLR)

Elevat
ions

Land Loss
More than 200 m.
200 100
100 50
50 20
20-10
10-0
Less than 0

300

1
5
0

3
0
0

Km.

High Emissions
(Scenario A - 1)

Salinity and sea level rise



(
).....

( , , ,
,
.)...

( -
)
( )........

Mitigation
Global Assessment
Regional Assessment

Adaptation

Local Assessment
Resilience

Crop management strategies, maximize benefits

and minimize risks

Increased expenditures in agricultural science and technology:

Emphasis on crop breeding, including biotechnology, that targets

abiotic and biotic stresses

Breed for high-yielding early maturing cultivars, especially those

of short stage and high tolerance

Increased investments in water storage and management

Irrigation

water amounts ,optimum irrigation water amount each

crop).
Skipping irrigation at different growth stages
Improving irrigation management
More development of rural Infrastructure:
Physical roads, market buildings and storage facilities
Institutional extension programs, credit and input markets, and
65

reduced barriers to internal trade

Crop
Production

Livestock
Production

Fish
Production

Irrigation is becoming essential

Cost of action and cost of inaction

Full costs of climate change =

COST OF INACTION (impacts, baseline)

COST OF ACTION (costs of mitigation +

costs of adaptation - benefits from mitigation
- benefits from adaptation)
Selecting priority actions

Ministry of Agriculture & land Reclamation

Agricultural Research Center (ARC)

Agricultural Research Center

Central Lab. for Agric. Climate

Food and Agriculture

Organization
of the United Nations

Thank you