International Journal of Advanced Computer Science, Vol. 3, No. 4, Pp. 149-153, Apr., 2013.

Short Term Load Forecast for Small Scale Power System Using Fuzzy Logic
M. F. I. Khamis , Z. Baharudin, N. H. Hamid, M. F. Abdullah, & F. T. Nordin
Manuscript
Received: 21,Oct., 2011 Revised: 10,Nov., 2011 Accepted: 21,Jan., 2013 Published: 15,Mar., 2013

Keywords
Short term load forecast, Gas district cooling, fuzzy logic,

Abstract- Load forecast has an important role in planning and operations in power generation plant. Many new forecast systems have been presented and proposed in recent years. Gas District Cooling (GDC) plant is built to supply electricity and chilled water for Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS (UTP). It operates on island operation during normal mode with utility company supply on hot standby mode. The plant has two generation units rated at 4.2 MW each, with a maximum generation capacity of 8.4 MW. In this paper, a practical short term load forecasting (STLF) method for UTP is presented. In the proposed method, a fuzzy logic approach is used and the STLF model is designed based on UTP semester January 2009 electricity demand data. The proposed model is tested with actual load data for January till June 2009 period. The test results show that the mean absolute percentage error of 4.76%.

1.

Introduction

Load forecast is an important aspect in the development of the model for power system planning and operation. The basic operating functions such as economic dispatch, fuel scheduling and generating unit maintenance can be performed efficiently with an accurate forecast [1]. The nature of the electricity demand depends on the type of planning and level of accuracy that is required [2]. Therefore, the demand can be represented as an annual demand (GW), peak demand (MW), or load duration curves like daily, weekly or annually [2]. Electricity forecast can be performed in short, medium and long term. Short-term load forecast (STLF) is the prediction of the system load over an interval ranging from one hour to one week [3]. Information derived from the STLF is significant to the system management of weekly, daily and hourly operation [4]. It is important for the economic and secure operation of power system as it represents a great saving potential for electric utility company [3]. Meanwhile, medium-term load forecast (MTLF) is usually conducted from a week to a year, and
M.F.I. Khamis (), Z. Baharudin, N. H. Hamid, M. F. Abdullah & F. T. Nordin are with School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS, Bandar Seri Iskandar, 31750, Tronoh, Perak Darul Ridzuan, Malaysia (Corresponding author. Tel: 605-3688514; Fax: 605-3654097; email: fati mieirzaq@petron as.com.my).
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long-term load forecast (LTLF) is normally longer than a year, usually covers from one to ten years ahead [5]. MTLF deals with the scheduling of fuel supplies and maintenance operation, while LTLF is useful for planning operations [3]. The plant is designed to produce electrical power supply and chilled water for Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS (UTP) campus and in-plant use. It is equipped with two units of 4.2 MW gas turbines, two heat recovery steam generators (HRSG), one package boiler, two steam absorption chillers and four electric chillers. Under normal condition, the generators are operating in island mode but during contingency period, generators are connected in parallel to national utility company. As a sole customer of the plant, the load demand pattern and trending is very much dependent on UTP activities. Based on the historical data, the maximum UTP load and in-plant used is recorded at 6.2 MW and 1.2 MW respectively [6]. In order to accurately forecast the weekly peak demand in the short run, important aspects such as meteorological condition, calendar effects (daily and weekly cycles, holidays, special events), semester type (semester on or off) and the previous week load data must be considered as each of it gives a significant effects to the load demand. Weather related variation is certainly critical in predicting electricity demand for lead times beyond a day-ahead [2], [6], [7], [8]. Since the electricity demand is complex, nonlinear and full off uncertainty, it needs a method that can mimics the human thinking and deals with its complexity to forecast the future electricity demands. The main objective of the proposed model is to forecast short term load demand for UTP. Thus, this paper proposed a fuzzy model approach for STLF which able to do forecast less than 10% absolute error with a given historical data. The design, simulation and testing process of the model is performed using fuzzyTECH 5.52 software.

2.

Methodology

A. Fuzzy Logic In using our everyday natural language to import knowledge and information, there is a great deal of impression and vagueness. Fuzzy logic provides a well suited area in performing the trading off between significance and precision. In addition, fuzzy logic also provides a mean for representing uncertainties [9].

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International Journal of Advanced Computer Science, Vol. 3, No. 4, Pp. 149-153, Apr., 2013.

B. Basic Component of Fuzzy System The basic configuration of the fuzzy system used in this paper is shown in Fig. 1. There are four basic elements in a fuzzy system which are: a) Fuzzification: The process of associating crisp input values with the linguistic terms of corresponding input linguistic variables [9]. b) Fuzzy inference engine: Provides the decision making logic of the system. It map the fuzzy inputs earlier to the fuzzy output based on the fuzzy rules and fuzzy set database by performing following computation [10]: Aggregation: Computation of the IF part of the rules (computes how appropriate each rule to the current situation) Composition: Computation of the THEN part of the rules (computes on how each rule influences the output variables) Result Aggregation: After the degrees of truth for the rules are computed, this step determines which rules will contribute to the deffuzzified result. c) Fuzzy rule base: A set of linguistic rules or conditional statements in the form of IF a set of conditions IS satisfied, THEN a set of consequences are inferred. These if-then rule statements are used to formulate the conditional statements that comprise fuzzy logic [9]. Defuzzification interface: Defuzzifies the fuzzy outputs of the fuzzy inference machine and generates a non-fuzzy (crisp) output which is the actual output of the fuzzy system [11].

value indicates under forecast, where the forecasted load value is less than the actual value [6]. The absolute error is calculated to indicate model design accuracy. Forecast load - Actual load Relative Error 100% (Equ. 1)
Absolute Error
Actual load Forecast load - Actual load

Actual load

100% (Equ. 2)

The flow chart in Fig. 2 describes the modelling process through fuzzy logic method by using fuzzyTECH software. The fine tuning process can be performed if the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) obtained is unsatisfactory. Start

Define input and output

Establish membership function

Construct IF - THEN Rule Blocks Perform simulation Perform error analysis NO MAPE optimal? YES Tuning Process

d)

Fuzzy rule base Crisp output Fuzzy input Fuzzy inference engine Fuzzy output

Crisp input

End
Fig. 2: Process Flowchart of Modelling Using fuzzyTech.

Fuzzifier

Defuzzifier

Fig. 1: Basic Configuration of Fuzzy System

C. Application of Fuzzy Logic on UTP Load Forecast The data for semester January 2009 electricity load consumption are obtained from the plant and analysed. FuzzyTECH software is used extensively in the project for the modeling purpose. To ensure the system accuracy, the relative error between the forecasted load and the real load consumption are obtained on daily basis. A positive value of error will indicate an over forecast, means that the forecasted load is larger than the actual load [6]. In contrast, a negative

The fine tuning process is a trial and error process, that is repeated during simulation until an optimal result or an accurate model is obtained. The fine tuning involves the process of identifying the active IF-THEN rules, editing the rules combination, as well as the Degree of Support (DoS) of the related rules. In this paper, 24 sets of weekly input condition are used in the proposed model. All the inputs will be run and to which IF-THEN rules they are applied to, will be noted. At this stage, no modification or changes shall be done on the rule block. This is more likely an identification process. After analysing the rules, it is found that different weekly input may share the same active IF-THEN rules. These weeks will be put in the same group which allow modification on IF-THEN rules that will cause changes to the certain weekly output thoroughly. Next step is the DoS adjustment on the active rules. DoS is a weighting value,
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ranging from 0 to 1, that is applied to each rule in the rule base and represents the relative significance of each rule [9]. Procedure of the fine tuning process is as depicted in the Fig. 3. Identify and grouped the active IF-THEN rules for each weekly input

Identify week at which high % error occurs Manually refine IF-THEN rule blocks Re-adjust the relevant DoS Check Forecast Results Recalculate % Error NO
Fig. 4: 7 days Load Forecast Model (Project Editor)

MAPE Optimal?

YES End
Fig. 3: Process Flowchart of Fine Tuning

3.

Load Forecast Model

Based on the analysis made on semester January 2009 load demand data, the following inputs are found to have a strong influence on the forecast value and it is classified as follows: a) Semester type: Semester on (for duration of January to May and July to November), Semester off (duration of June and December) b) Day type: normal day, public day, special occasion. c) d) e) Previous weekdays average load demand. Previous Saturday and Sunday load demand. Maximum temperature of forecasted week.

Fig. 5: Rule Block for Tuesday forecast.

f) Maximum temperature of forecasted Saturday and Sunday. The model is capable of forecast UTP electricity demand for one week as shown in Fig. 4:

Figure 5 shows an example of rule block applied for Tuesday forecast and membership function. FuzzyTECH applies a link to the corresponding Data Dynamic Exchange (DDE) server. This means every time the DDE server (Microsoft Excel) changes the value of the corresponding item, the input variable in fuzzyTECH is updated automatically and the fuzzy system is recomputed [6]. The instant fuzzyTECH changes the value of an output variable, fuzzyTECH writes the new value into the corresponding DDE server. DDE acts as data interface between user and fuzzyTECH system. Table 1 and Table 2 below show numbers of membership function and DDE used in this paper.

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International Journal of Advanced Computer Science, Vol. 3, No. 4, Pp. 149-153, Apr., 2013. TABLE 1 7 DAYS LOAD FORECAST MODEL MEMBERSHIP FUNCTION TABLE 5 FORECASTED AND ACTUAL ELECTRICITY LOAD DEMAND OF UTP FOR 30TH TH MARCH TO 5 APRIL 2009 (SEMESTER ON) Week No Forecast (kW) Actual (kW) MAPE 11 5396.30 5448.00 3.37 5611.00 5524.00 5911.10 5448.00 5544.40 5412.00 5488.80 5828.00 4179.15 4192.00 3201.65 3336.00 TABLE 6 FORECASTED AND ACTUAL ELECTRICITY LOAD DEMAND OF UTP FOR 13TH TH TO19 APRIL 2009 (SEMESTER ON) Week No Forecast (kW) Actual (kW) MAPE 13 5639.70 5932.00 4.86 5623.60 6020.00 5843.50 5516.00 5544.40 5516.00 5488.80 5872.00 3782.05 3780.00 2800.00 2944.00 TABLE 7 FORECASTED AND ACTUAL ELECTRICITY LOAD DEMAND OF UTP FOR 25TH ST TO 31 MAY 2009 (SEMESTER OFF) Week No Forecast (kW) Actual (kW) MAPE 21 5133.30 5144.00 4.29 5000.00 5124.00 5000.00 5312.00 5000.00 4776.00 5000.00 4780.00 2855.45 2772.00 2515.95 2772.00

Load input Temperature Day type Semester type Forecast output

Mon 8 5 3 2 8

Tues

Membership Function Wed Thurs Fri

Sat 5 5 3 2 5

Sun 5 5 3 2 5

TABLE 2 DDE MODEL

INPUT Insert previous weekday actual average load Insert previous week actual Saturday load Insert previous week actual Sunday load Insert forecast Weekday max Temperature Insert forecast Saturday Temperature Insert forecast Sunday Temperature Insert forecast Weekday semester type Insert forecast Saturday Semester type Insert forecast Sunday Semester type Insert forecast Monday Day type Insert forecast Tuesday Day type Insert forecast Wednesday Day type Insert forecast Thursday Day type Insert forecast Friday Day type Insert forecast Saturday Day type Insert forecast Sunday Day type

kW kW kW Celsius Celsius Celsius

4.

Results
The model is tested and simulated for each week starting from week 1 and end with week 24. The average MAPE for the 24 weeks of the simulation process is presented in Table 8.
TABLE 8 RESULTS SUMMARY Average MAPE (24 weeks) Semester on MAPE (18 weeks) Semester off MAPE (6 weeks)

The proposed model is simulated for both semester on and semester off. For the simplicity, five random weeks are chosen to evaluate the accuracy of the model. The selected weeks are week 2, 9, 11, 13 and 21. The MAPE for the forecast to the actual value are depicted in Table 3 to Table 7.
TABLE 3 FORECASTED AND ACTUAL ELECTRICITY LOAD DEMAND OF UTP FOR 26TH ST JAN TO 1 FEB 2009 (SEMESTER ON WITH HOLIDAY) Forecast (kW) *2931.80 *2722.20 5066.70 5216.60 5176.20 4351.10 3200.00 Note: * Chinese New Year Holiday Week No 2 Actual (kW) *2932.00 *2752.00 5348.00 5662.00 5156.00 4386.00 3068.00 MAPE 2.82

4.76% 4.29% 6.14%

The summarized result in the Table 8 shows that the proposed model performs relatively low error. The model manages to forecast the UTP load demand during both semester on and semester off at below 5.15% [6]. Figure 6 depicts the actual and forecast electricity load demand for the January 2009 semester.

TABLE 4 FORECASTED AND ACTUAL ELECTRICITY LOAD DEMAND OF UTP FOR 16TH MARCH TO 22ND MARCH 2009 (SEMESTER ON) Week No 9 Forecast (kW) 5469.10 5611.00 5911.10 5544.40 5488.80 3200.00 2425.30 Actual (kW) 5712.00 5680.00 5412.00 5372.00 5484.00 3220.00 2420.00 MAPE 2.69

5.

Conclusion

The process of electricity load forecast is essential for the pre-planned scheduling and maintenance for the plant. An accurate forecast model will help the plant in scheduling generators operation such as to start and stop generation as well as maintenance works. The proposed method with using fuzzy logic suggests several inputs to be considered for the load forecast model. STLF model is performed for the month
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of January until July 2009 in a data set of 24 weeks. The forecast methodology with fuzzy parameters gives a better result which is below 4.49% for semester on and 7.40% for semester off [6]. The modification on DoS and IF-THEN rules on each rule blocks show significant decrement in the MAPE as the proposed model manages to obtain relatively low forecast error which is at 4.76% compared to 5.15% [6]

Demand (kW)

Forecast Actual

compensation,'' IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 11, pp 1736-1742, 1996. [8] Taylor, J.W. and Buizza R, ''Using weather ensemble predictions in electricity demand forecasting,'' International Journal of Forecasting, 19, pp 57-70, 2003. [9] Lotfi A Zadeh, Fuzzy Logic Toolbox For Use with Matlab,User, The MathWorks, Users Guide ,Version 2,2002 [10] C. von Altrock. ''Industrial Application of Fuzzy Logic Control,'' INFORM GmbH / Inform Software Corporation, 1996. [11] A. G. Bakirtzis, V. Petridis, S. J. Kiartzis, M. C. Alexiadis and A. H. Maissis, "A neural network short term load forecasting model for the Greek power system," Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on, vol. 11, pp. 858-863, 1996.

No of day
Fig. 6: Forecast and Actual Load for the duration January to July 2009

Acknowledgement
We would like to thank Universiti PETRONAS for sponsoring our project. Teknologi

References
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