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C, (having been
cooled to the sea bed temperature in the offshore pipeline).
The gas entering the pipeline is the well fluid from the offshore section comprising
hydrocarbon gas (mainly methane), water vapour, carbon dioxide and traces of other
gases together with condensed hydrocarbons and water. The aqueous phase includes
the Methanol and Corrosion Inhibitor, added offshore to prevent the formation of gas
hydrates and to mitigate corrosion.
The pipeline is designed for non-sour service. There is no indication that any
measurable quantity of hydrogen sulphide is present in the Corrib field. Nor is there
any reason to believe that any hydrogen sulphide will be produced in the future.
Leak detection by a dedicated system is achieved by comparing the pressures and
flows from subsea and the terminal using various statistical and mass balance
techniques. It monitors both the onshore and offshore sections with an interface to the
DCS that alerts the operator in the event of a problem.
Automatic Emergency Shutdown initiates closure of the wells in the field offshore
and shuts the Terminal pipeline ESDV.
Corrib Natural Gas Pipeline Integrity Management Scheme (PIMS)
Appendix A3 - Onshore Gas Pipeline (L0011) Page 47
A High Integrity Pressure Protection System in the Landfall Valve Installation
provides overpressure protection. The valves will automatically close to prevent the
onshore pipeline pressure from exceeding its Maximum Operating Pressure (MOP).
Pigging is not considered to be a requirement for normal operations. Velocities in the
pipeline are predicted to remain above 4 m/s, which is above the rate where sand
would be expected to settle out. Wax formation is not anticipated. Scale formation
shall be avoided by the injection of scale inhibitors. There is no requirement to run a
pig through the pipeline to distribute the corrosion inhibitor. However, facilities exist
to launch pigs from the subsea manifold for special operations, (e.g. commissioning,
on-line inspection).
A3.3 Integrity Control Activities
The spreadsheet tabulation gives details of the threats, barriers and monitoring which
are assured through control action during operation together with details of reference
documents, and corrective action requirements.
Many of these integrity control activities are subject to a mandatory requirement of
the DCENR either by a direct requirement in the Report of the Corrib Technical
Advisory Group to Minister Dempsey, January 2006 (TAG Report), or through
their requirement for the integrity management scheme to follow Irish Standard,
I.S. 328. These regulatory requirements are indicated below and in the tabulation.
The threats and their control measures can be summarised as follows:
Internal Corrosion
Internal corrosion caused by carbon dioxide in the gas dissolving in the water
condensed from the gas (sweet corrosion) is a threat. It is controlled and reduced by
the injection of a corrosion inhibitor (conveyed in the methanol added for hydrate
control). The incorporation of a 1mm corrosion allowance into the pipeline design
allows for the residual corrosivity of the inhibited fluids.
The injection is monitored by the measurement of injection rate and logging of
inhibitor injection up time. Residual inhibitor is analysed in the aqueous phase
separated at the Terminal.Intelligent pig inspection, at intervals set by a risk-based
assessment, is used to measure and trend actual wall thickness loss. The base line
survey provides measurement of wall thickness and pre-existing features against
which later intelligent pig inspections may be compared. (Regulatory requirement).
Taking all the influences into consideration a prediction has been made of the
expected corrosion rate. The prediction has been made using the Shell Hydrocor
methodology to determine the basic sweet corrosion rate.
As the fluid composition, temperature, pressure and flow rate is essentially the same
throughout the onshore pipeline the corrosion rate will not vary significantly along the
section. The predicted uninhibited corrosion rate starts at 0.05mm/yr and drops as the
pressure declines through time. If formation water is produced the predicted
corrosion rate increases to 0.08mm/yr, at initial conditions, but also drops as pressure
declines. Inhibition will reduce the actual corrosion rate sufficiently to achieve the
field life of 20 years.
Corrib Natural Gas Pipeline Integrity Management Scheme (PIMS)
Appendix A3 - Onshore Gas Pipeline (L0011) Page 48
The sweet corrosion rate and life prediction is revisited and updated on an annual
basis and monitoring and inspection (intelligent pig) results are used to validate them.
(Regulatory requirement).
Sour corrosion both as general and pitting loss and in the form of various modes
of cracking due to the presence of hydrogen sulphide it is not expected to be a
problem for the Corrib gas pipeline as there is no indication that any measurable
quantity of hydrogen sulphide is present in the Corrib field. However, hydrogen
sulphide measurement is routinely made on gas samples to ensure that this remains
the case. (Regulatory requirement).
Erosion damage is possible as selected wells have been or may be fractured and
treated with proppant materials. Maximum metal loss is predicted to occur at the
bends and tees in the LVI. A restriction on the amount of solids allowed in the
pipeline is required as a barrier to loss of containment by erosion. The Performance
Standard for proppant production (and hence erosion) is set at three proppant
producing wells per 1mm of Corrosion Allowance. Well operations and planning to
date concerns only one well and that is expected to be flow tested and cleaned-up to
demonstrate no proppant losses. This measure is expected to meet all current and
future operating scenarios.
External Corrosion
External corrosion can occur to a buried pipeline. To combat this, the Corrib pipeline
is coated to a high standard and cathodically protected to prevent corrosion of the
pipe at any point where the coating is damaged.
The cathodic protection (CP) system is monitored for ongoing effectiveness with
checks on the transformer/rectifier up time and output together with pipe/soil
potential measurements at test posts and close interval potential surveys. The
monitoring measurements include checks on isolation joint effectiveness.
Frequencies for these checks conform to I.S. 328. (Regulatory requirement).
The transformer/rectifier output required for protective levels of potential are initially
determined on system commissioning. Performance targets are set for
transformer/rectifier up time and output and measured pipe/soil potentials.
The results of checks and surveys are analysed on a routine basis. Changes and
impacts brought about by the activities of utilities and other parties are assessed and
surveyed as necessary.
Mechanical Damage
Buried pipelines are at risk from third party interference, especially unauthorised
excavation. However, the thick walled construction of the line makes it resistant to
damage from most agricultural and earth moving equipment. Also the minimum
1.2m cover and use of concrete slab protection, at vehicle crossings and ditches put
the line out of reach of most routine farming and fishing activity and protect it from
live vehicle loads, etc.
The residual risk of damage from the activities of outside parties is mitigated through
line patrols and liaison with landowners and utilities. Patrol scope includes the main
water crossings as well as the buried line.
Corrib Natural Gas Pipeline Integrity Management Scheme (PIMS)
Appendix A3 - Onshore Gas Pipeline (L0011) Page 49
The risk from Shell maintenance and engineering activities is controlled though
standard procedures for risk assessment and permit to work, and for work within
pipeline rights of way. This applies also to any work on the umbilicals and outfall
pipe, which run alongside the pipeline. (Regulatory requirement).
Fatigue
The likely operating mode of the pipeline and the normal operating pressures make it
unlikely that the pipeline will accumulate, if any, a significant amount of fatigue
damage through stress fluctuations over its service life. However, the number of
significant pressure fluctuations, if any, is counted on an annual basis from pressure
records in the SCADA/DCS historian. (Regulatory requirement).
Fatigue failure of pipework and small-bore fittings at the Landfall Valve Installation
and the Terminal end of the pipeline is also a threat. This has been assessed on an
item-by-item basis and vulnerable items are surveyed, and, if necessary, modified,
when the plant is constructed. (Regulatory requirement for LVI).
Brittle Fracture
The first 1100 meter of the buried onshore l pipeline has been assessed as suitable
with adequate fracture toughness at temperatures down to -20C. The remainder of the
buried onshore pipeline to the Terminal is suitable for temperatures down to
10C.
The valves at the Landfall Valve Installation are specified for low temperature brittle
service down to -26C and the pipe spools down to -20C. Operating procedures
require temperature monitoring and flow adjustment to prevent temperatures lower
than -20C when the flow is restarted after valve closure at the Landfall Valve
Installation.
Overstress
It is possible for the pressure in the offshore pipeline to rise beyond the onshore
pipelines Maximum Operating Pressure (MOP). To prevent the pressure in the
onshore pipeline exceeding its MOP a High Integrity Pressure Protection System is
installed at the Landfall Valve Installation. This is tested for closure function, remote
operation and valve leak tightness at an interval of not longer than one year. The
hydraulic system for valve actuation is visually inspected every month for leakage.
The valves are internally inspected for degradation due to corrosion or erosion at risk
based intervals. The intervals for closure testing and hydraulic system inspection
conform to I.S. 328. (Regulatory requirement). [A3.2]
To ensure it remains appropriate the MOP is reviewed at least every 4 years. It will
also be reviewed if the pipeline sustains any corrosion or mechanical damage in the
interim. The frequency for this check conforms to I.S. 328. (Regulatory
requirement). [A3.2]
Parts of the pipeline are laid through peat bog that has little capability to support the
line and the peat could move to cause lateral displacement of the line. To avoid this
problem stone roads will be constructed in the bog areas and the pipeline buried
within the stone roads thus providing support to the pipeline. This eliminates the need
for any routine pipe position or pipe stress monitoring. Pipeline patrols watch for
signs of settlement or landslip and, if any occurs, measurement of deflection is carried
out and assessment made to ensure that the original analysis remains valid.
(Regulatory requirement).
Corrib Natural Gas Pipeline Integrity Management Scheme (PIMS)
Appendix A3 - Onshore Gas Pipeline (L0011) Page 50
The line is protected at vehicle crossings of the way leave with a protection slab
designed to protect from the maximum legal axle weight of 10.5tonne. Pipeline patrol
and landowner liaison are used to ensure this is understood and observed and that the
line is not crossed at unprotected points or by heavy off-road plant.
Since micro-tunnelling will be used for bay crossings unsupported spans and
differential settlement are highly unlikely to occur due to scour. The crossings are
surveyed on a maximum 2-year interval to detect any problems. Frequencies for
these checks conform to I.S. 328. (Regulatory requirement). In the event pipeline
routing or installation methodology changes at these planned crossings, the need and
frequency to inspect or survey will be taken into account.
Integrity Reference Plan and Action
The detail identification of threats and barriers, together with performance standards,
immediate action requirements and corrective action requirements will be given in the
tabular Integrity Reference Plan which will be prepared prior to commissioning.
Where actual or suspected damage or deterioration requires Immediate Action then
the pressure in the line will not be allowed to exceed 80% of the operating pressure at
the time that the damage was found. A Shell defect assessment process and methods
will be used to assess any defect. If indicated by initial assessment, the operating
pressure may need to be restricted till remedial actions have been completed.
Methods will be identified for the repair of damaged pipe. The equipment and
materials that may be required will be either held in stock or their acquisition route is
identified and assured to meet required timescales.
A3.4 References
A3.1. Basis of Design, COR-10-SP-001-08
A3.2. Irish Standard I.S. 328: 2003, Code of Practice for Gas Transmission
Pipelines and Pipeline Installations
A3.3. Landfall Valve Installation Design Overview, JPK 05 2377 01 G 3 002
A3.4. Corrib Pipeline: Internal Corrosion Rate Predictions, COR-39-SH-0011 rev 3
A3.5. Guidelines for the Avoidance of Vibration Induced Fatigue in Process
Pipework, MTD Publication 99/100
Corrib Natural Gas Pipeline Integrity Management Scheme (PIMS)
Appendix A4 Gathering Lines & Manifold Page 51
A4 GATHERING LINES & MANIFOLD
A4.1 Physical Description
The main parameters for the Gathering system are:
Table A4.1 Gathering system parameters
Dimensions Flexible Pipe Construction
Line/Item Dia-
meter
Length Layer Material
N1171 6 98.1m Interlocked Carcass 316L Stainless Steel
N1173 6 108.4m Pressure Sheath PVDF
N1174 8 2468.9
m
Zeta Spiral FM 35 Carbon Steel
N1199 6 200m Two Armour Layers FM 72 Carbon Steel
N2101 6 100m
(approx)
External Sheath HDPE
N1172 8 1724.4
m
Interlocked Carcass 316L Stainless Steel
N1175 6 1515.2
m
Pressure Sheath PVDF
Zeta Spiral FM 35 Carbon Steel
Two Armour Layers FM 72 Carbon Steel
External Sheath HDPE
Connection Construction
Component Material
Pipeline End 6 & 8 Outboard Hub UNS S32760
Fitting and
Icarus
Outboard Hub
Flange
UNS S31803
Termination End Fitting (Body,
Neck & Flange)
ASTM A694 F60
Carbon Steel
External Electroless
Nickel Coating
Internal
UNS N06625 Clad
Termination Barrel,
Front Lid & Rear Lid
ST52-3N
Carbon Steel, Coating
NORSOK M-501
System 7 (Epoxy)
Bend Restrictor Carbon Steel
Intermediate
Connection
(Grayloc
Hub) N1174
Only
End Fittings ASTM A694 F60
Carbon Steel
External Electroless
Nickel Coating
Internal Inconel 625
Cladding
Corrib Natural Gas Pipeline Integrity Management Scheme (PIMS)
Appendix A4 Gathering Lines & Manifold Page 52
Table A4.1 Gathering system parameters (continued)
Manifold Construction
Component Material
Pipework &
Fittings
1 to
20
Pipe & Fittings UNS S31803
Valves UNS S31803
Hubs UNS S32760
Coating NORSOK M-501
System 7 (Epoxy)
A4.2 Process Parameters
The flowlines and jumpers and manifold have a design pressure of 345barg. The gas
entering the flowlines and jumpers is well fluids comprising hydrocarbon gas (mainly
methane), water vapour and condensed water, carbon dioxide and traces of other
gases to which Methanol containing a Corrosion Inhibitor is added at the wellhead to
prevent the formation of gas hydrates and mitigate corrosion as the water condenses.
The flowlines and jumpers are designed for non-sour service.
A4.3 Integrity Control Activities
The spreadsheet tabulation gives details of the threats, barriers and monitoring which
are assured through control action during operation together with details of reference
documents, and corrective action requirements.
Many threats have been eliminated by design but in some cases the assurance of
barriers cannot be monitored visually because the manifold layout and protection
structure prevents it.
The threats and their control measures can be summarised as follows:
Internal Corrosion
Initially internal corrosion caused by carbon dioxide in the gas dissolving in the water
condensed from the gas (sweet corrosion) is a high probability threat. The
corrosivity of the fluids varies along the line. The gas is non-corrosive until it cools
below the water dew point at which point it is at its most corrosive. Some water
condenses upstream in the well bores and it continues to condense in the flowlines. As
the gas cools the corrosivity decreases. Over time the corrosivity will reduce as the
operating pressure and temperature decreases.
Corrosion rates may also be adversely affected by oxygenation of the methanol feed.
The oxygen content is, therefore, monitored and controlled at the terminal. There is
also a potential for wells to produce high salinity formation water later in life and this
leads to a threat of pitting damage for stainless steels.
Internal corrosion is controlled by the use of corrosion resistant materials in the
flexibles pipelines and manifold pipework and by the use of corrosion resistant
cladding of low alloy steels and corrosion resistant materials in the pipeline end
fittings. These alloys are resistant to sweet corrosion at the maximum operating
temperature.
Corrib Natural Gas Pipeline Integrity Management Scheme (PIMS)
Appendix A4 Gathering Lines & Manifold Page 53
The inner carcass of the flexibles is low carbon austenitic stainless steel (UNS
S31603), which would be susceptible to pitting and crevice corrosion if and when
formation water is produced. It will, however, require a lot of this localised corrosion
to damage the carcass to a point where it fails to provide mechanical support and an
erosion barrier for the pressure sheath. Aqueous methanol is injected in sufficient
quantity to dilute the chloride by 30% down to an acceptable level, less than
150,000ppm chloride. Also the oxygen content of the produced liquids/methanol
mixture is not allowed to exceed 20ppb. As the aqueous methanol is injected prior to
water condensation this requires the oxygen content of the methanol on its own not to
exceed 20ppb. Control to these levels ensures that significant pitting damage will not
occur at operating temperatures.
The duplex stainless steel manifold pipework also benefits from the restriction of
salinity and oxygen content although this material is less vulnerable to pitting.
The containment sheath is a polyvinylidine fluoride (PVDF) thermoplastic that is
resistant to chemical action by both the produced fluids and the methanol at the
design operating temperatures. The carcass liner will protect it from erosion.
Wells that are chemically treated for fracturing, etc., will be cleaned up with backflow
to the treating rig and not into the pipeline system to prevent damage to the carcass
and pressure sheath materials.
As the containment sheath material is gas permeable, components of the gas including
carbon dioxide will migrate to the annulus containing the carbon steel armour layers.
Consequently there is a risk of corrosion if this annulus becomes water flooded
following damage to the outer sheath. A prediction has been made of the expected
corrosion rate using Technip in-house methodology to determine the carbon dioxide
permeation rate and the resulting sweet corrosion rate. The armouring thickness has
then been manufactured to include the required corrosion allowance, conservatively
assuming a flooded annulus for the whole 20-year field life.
Sour stress corrosion cracking of the armour wire could also be a problem if
hydrogen sulphide in the gas permeates into the annulus. This is not expected to be a
problem for the Corrib gas pipeline as there is no measurable amount of hydrogen
sulphide in the produced gas. However, hydrogen sulphide measurement is routinely
made on gas samples to ensure that this remains the case.
External Corrosion
External corrosion could occur to the flexibles and end fittings due to the corrosivity
of seawater, particularly at the operating temperatures. To combat this, the flexibles
have an extruded high-density polyethylene (HDPE) sheath and sacrificial cathodic
protection with sacrificial anodes to protect the armour layers of the flexibles at any
point where the coating is damaged.
The flexibles end fittings are carbon steel externally protected with an electroless
nickel coating and the hubs to which they attached are super duplex stainless steel.
The end fittings and parts of the hubs are contained within the Icarus termination
assemblies, which are flooded, coated carbon steel assemblies that are cathodically
protected both internally and externally by sacrificial aluminium anodes. The end
fittings and barrels are bonded together to share this protection and prevent galvanic
corrosion.
Corrib Natural Gas Pipeline Integrity Management Scheme (PIMS)
Appendix A4 Gathering Lines & Manifold Page 54
The sacrificial anode system covers the manifold, flexibles and wellheads in one
electrically continuous system. All the manifold structure and pipework - both carbon
steel and alloy components is coated with an epoxy coating system (NORSOK M-
501 System 7) to reduce the current demand and both extend the life of the anodes
and ensure effective spread of protection.
The cathodic protection (CP) system is monitored for ongoing effectiveness with
estimates of remaining anode volume and potential measurements at (the few) points
of access on the wellheads, flexible end fittings/termination sleeves and the manifold.
All components are bonded together and tested for electrical continuity during
assembly so the protection of inaccessible items is inferred from the measurements
that are possible on other parts. Performance targets are set for potential
measurements and remaining anode volume. The results are analysed on a routine
basis.
Duplex stainless steels are vulnerable to failure by cracking caused by hydrogen
uptake when cathodically protected. For pipework this is normally avoided unless
stress in the pipework exceeds 80% of the yield stress. To ensure this does not
happen, the pipework and connecting hubs have been designed and fabricated to
ensure overstressing does not occur due to thermal effects and imposed loads at the
flexible/manifold connections. The manifold has a protection cover and the flexibles
are parly covered or buried to protect from accidental overload, e.g. from fishing
operations. Inspection ensures that this cover and burial remains in place and
effective.
Mechanical Damage
The likelihood that the activities of outside parties could cause impact damage to
exposed flexible lines is, in common with other pipelines, high. Therefore , the
flexible flow lines are mostly buried to avoid impact damage by trawl gear and help
prevent damage by anchors. To avoid damage by trawl gear and dropped objects
close to the structures, where the burial equipment cannot be used, the lines will be
protected, in sequence by:
- A GRP tunnel attached to the structure,
- Mattresses from the tunnel end out to a point where rock dumping is no
hazard to the structure, and then,
- Rock dump cover out to a point where full depth trenching is possible.
The Manifold is provided with a protection structure that will allow trawl boards to
pass over it without snagging or causing damage.
The residual risk of damage from the activities of outside parties including anchor
damage and dropped object impacts is mitigated by the declaration of a safety zone,
marking on charts and notices to mariners and by the management of works by Shell
including liaison with contractors deploying vessels using anchors and positioning
vessels over the lines and manifold.
The risk from Shell maintenance and engineering activities is controlled though
standard procedures for risk assessment and approval to work in accordance with the
Shell Subsea Engineering Maintenance & Inspection Procedures.
Corrib Natural Gas Pipeline Integrity Management Scheme (PIMS)
Appendix A4 Gathering Lines & Manifold Page 55
The flexible flow lines, around the wellheads and at the manifold, and the manifold
itself are inspected visually for damage and loss of cover at intervals determined by
risk-based assessment. Any damage is assessed and, if necessary, pressure limitation
and/or repair actioned. Exposure of the protected lines is rectified if significant.
Fatigue
Fatigue is not a problem for the flexible pipes, as they remain static through burial,
etc. The piping on the manifold will not be at risk from fatigue if it remains fully
supported by attachment to the structure.
Brittle Fracture
The flexible pipe and end fittings and the manifold piping have been manufactured to
resist low temperature brittle fracture at normal operating temperatures down to
-20
C.
The Manifold piping design temperature is -30
C.
Brittle cracking can also occur if duplex stainless steel pipe and fittings on the
manifold have inappropriate microstructures, generally caused by poor control of
welding or heat treatment. These problems are mitigated by strict controls during
manufacturing.
Connection Failure
The PVDF pressure sheath material of the flexibles can pull out from the end fitting
due to leaching of the plasticizer during service. In accordance with current industry
practice to avoid this type of failure, the PVDF in the pipe at the end fittings has been
subject to a deplasticizing operation prior to assembly. The end fittings and flexible
pipe have been designed and manufactured for the full design temperature range.
Overstress
The flexibles and manifold piping have been designed for the maximum wellhead
shut in pressure.
The flexibles are installed in a side bend configuration and in tension in 2m deep
trenches. This ensures that the maximum temperature induced upheaval cannot
expose the pipe above the trench, thus protecting it from trawl damage.
The risk from Shell maintenance and engineering activities is controlled though
standard procedures for risk assessment and approval to work in accordance with the
Shell Subsea Engineering Maintenance & Inspection Procedures.
Thermally induced overstress by buckling has been addressed in the design of the
flexible. Temperatures that are within the operating values used in the design do not
cause overstress to an otherwise undamaged pipe. The wellhead temperatures are
monitored to ensure the line remains within these constraints.
The flexibles are inspected for deflections or upheaval with side scan sonar, and,
along with the manifold, visually, at intervals assessed by risk-based analysis to be
appropriate. Any damage is assessed and, if necessary, pressure limitation and/or
repair actioned.
Corrib Natural Gas Pipeline Integrity Management Scheme (PIMS)
Appendix A4 Gathering Lines & Manifold Page 56
Integrity Reference Plan and Action
The detail identification of threats and barriers, together with performance standards,
immediate action requirements and corrective action requirements will be given in the
tabular Integrity Reference Plan, which will be prepared before commissioning.
Corrib Natural Gas Pipeline Integrity Management Scheme (PIMS)
Appendix A5 Umbilicals Page 57
A5 UMBILICALS A5.1 PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION
The main parameters for the Umbilicals, Termination Units and Connectors are:
Table A5.1, Umbilical section parameters
Umbilical Sections Key Parameters
Onshore Umbilical No1 Bellanaboy Terminal OTTU to
Landfall Valve Installation OTU
Treated Production Water 2 Lines
Electrical 1 Element
Overall Diameter 62mm
Overall Length (approx) 9.2 km (in c.9 sections)
Outer Sheath Material MDPE
Ducting PE
Onshore Umbilicals
Nos 2 & 3
Bellanaboy Terminal OTTU to
Landfall Valve Installation OTU
Methanol 2 Lines
HP Hydraulic Supply 1 Line
LP Hydraulic Supply 1 Line
Electrical 2 Elements
Overall Diameter 81mm
Overall Length (approx) 9.2 km (in c.9 sections)
Outer Sheath Material MDPE
Ducting PE
Landfall Valve Installation
Control cables
Bellanaboy Terminal OTTU to
Landfall Valve Installation OTU
Fibre Optic Cable 12 fibres (subject to procurement)
Electrical 6 cores(subject to procurement)
Offshore Main Umbilical Landfall Valve Installation OTU to Corrib Manifold
SDU
Methanol 4 lines
HP Supply 2 Lines
LP Supply 2 Lines
Treated Production Water 2 Lines
Electrical 5 Elements
Overall Diameter 129mm
Overall Length (approx) 84km
Outer Sheath Material MDPE
Offshore Infield Umbilicals Corrib Manifold SDU to Wells P1, P3, P4, P5 & P6
and Well P5 to Well P2
Methanol 3 Lines
HP Supply 2 Lines
LP Supply 2 Lines
Electrical 3 Elements
Overall Diameter 117mm
Overall Lengths (approx) 1.114km SDU to Well P1
1.217km SDU to Well P4
1.0km (approx) SDU to Well P6
1.752km SDU to P3
2.465km SDU to P5
1.517km Well P5 to Well P2
Corrib Natural Gas Pipeline Integrity Management Scheme (PIMS)
Appendix A5 Umbilicals Page 58
Umbilical Sections Key Parameters
Outer Sheath Material MDPE
Table A5.2, Umbilical core parameters
Umbilical Cores Key Parameters
Methanol 4 Lines
Outside Diameter 28.2mm
Wall thickness 1.40mm
Pressure Rating 345barg
Material Super Duplex SS UNS 32740
HP Hydraulic Supply 2 Lines
Outside Diameter 14.98mm
Wall thickness 1.14mm
Pressure Rating 610barg
Material Super Duplex SS UNS 32750
LP Hydraulic Supply 2 Lines
Outside Diameter 21.25mm
Wall thickness 1.10mm
Pressure Rating 210barg
Material Super Duplex SS UNS 32750
Treated Production Water 2 Lines
Outside Diameter 22.67mm/28.20mm
Wall thickness 1.81mm/1.40mm
Pressure Rating 610barg/345barg
Material Super Duplex SS UNS 32740
Electric Elements 5 Elements
Outside Diameter 22.5mm
Outer Sheath wall thickness 1.5mm
Outer Sheath Material LLDPE
Table A5.3, Termination Unit & Connector parameters
Termination Units & Connectors Key Parameters
Subsea Distribution Unit (SDU) 1 Unit, 10 Lines (2 spare)
Location On top of manifold
Form Steel structure protecting distribution pipework
and providing stab plate connectors
Dimensions 11.4m x 6.7m x 1.35m high
Material Carbon Steel structure with coating
and sacrificial cathodic protection,
Duplex SS UNS 31803 Methanol piping
TP 316L SS hydraulic piping
Offshore Termination Assemblies
(UTAs)/ Terminations
13 Units, 10 Lines or 8 Lines
Location Subsea, entering and leaving SDU and Well
packages
Form D shaped Main Barrel and tubular Front Barrel
Dimensions Infield, 610mm dia x 3.131m overall length
Main, 610mm dia x 3.631m overall length
Material Carbon Steel, epoxy coated (NORSOK M-501
No 7) with Aluminium anodes
Duplex SS UNS 31803 Methanol piping
TP 316L SS hydraulic piping
Corrib Natural Gas Pipeline Integrity Management Scheme (PIMS)
Appendix A5 Umbilicals Page 59
Table A5.3, Termination Unit & Connector parameters (continued)
Onshore Termination Unit (OTU) 1 Unit, 10 Lines (1 spare)
Location Landfall Valve Installation, below ground
Form Split tube with flat ends, located in concrete
protection slab box
Dimensions 600mm dia x 2.37m long
Material Carbon Steel, epoxy coated (NORSOK M-501
No 7) with Magnesium anodes
Onshore Joints Approx 24 Units, 2 or 4 Lines
Location Onshore way leave, below ground, in ducting
Form Tube with flat ends. Polyurethane filled
Outside Diameter 280mm
Wall thickness 10.7mm
Tube Material HDPE
Onshore Terminal Termination
Unit (OTTU)
1 Unit, 10 Lines (2 spare),
Location Bellanaboy Terminal, above ground
Form Rectangular Cabinet
A5.2 Process Parameters
The three liquids, conveyed in the umbilicals, are:
Product Methanol containing the Corrosion and Scale Inhibitors that
controls corrosion in the pipeline, and,
Aqueous Ethylene Glycol based hydraulic fluid, Castrol Transaqua HT,
which contains a corrosion inhibitor, bactericide, dye and other chemicals.
Treated Production Water from the terminal to be disposed at the manifold.
The Methanol solution is transported out to the field to be injected into the produced
fluid for the suppression of gas hydrate formation. A Corrosion Inhibitor designed to
reduce the corrosivity of the produced fluid is mixed into it. It is provided at
pressures up to 345barg.
The hydraulic fluid is provided to power actuated valves at the wellheads and
manifold and is supplied at two maximum pressures 610barg (HP) and 210barg (LP).
The operating pressures are reduced to match the closed in wellhead pressure and will
therefore decrease over the field life.
Both fluids will mostly be at ambient seabed temperature, between 6C and 12.7C.
The temperature may be somewhat higher in the shore approach and at the river
crossings where the umbilicals are piggybacked or bundled with the gas pipeline.
The treated production water from the terminal will be transported via the umbilical
lines to the manifold where it will be disposed.
A5.3 Integrity Control Activities
The spreadsheet tabulation gives details of the threats, barriers and monitoring which
are assured through control action during operation together with details of reference
documents, and corrective action requirements.
Corrib Natural Gas Pipeline Integrity Management Scheme (PIMS)
Appendix A5 Umbilicals Page 60
The consequences of damage to the umbilicals are not restricted to loss of
containment, although spillage of methanol or glycol in any quantity is
environmentally detrimental. The main threat is the loss of function, i.e. the loss of
hydrate control, the loss of wellhead valve actuation, the loss of inhibition or the loss
of instrument signals. The first two of these would result in immediate loss of
production and the latter two could result in serious curtailment.
It is also intended that the leak detection system being developed for the
offshore and onshore pipelines will also be configured to trend the relevant
parameters for umbilical flows and pressures. Most components of the system
have been designed and constructed to be inherently resistant to corrosion, and other
threats, as they are mostly inaccessible for condition monitoring. To provide
resilience to the loss of one or two cores, spare cores for both Methanol and hydraulic
fluid are included in the umbilical.
The direct threats and their control measures can be summarised as follows:
Internal Corrosion
Internal corrosion by the aqueous fluids is controlled by the use of corrosion resistant
Super Duplex Stainless Steel for both chemicals in the umbilical, and type 316L
stainless steel for the hydraulic fluid in the Subsea Distribution Unit (SDU). At the
ambient operating temperature these will resist general corrosion, pitting and crevice
corrosion.
For the umbilical tubes exposed to aerated produced water Super Duplex Stainless
Steel is resistant to crevice corrosion up to 15C and higher if biocidal control is
applied as intended. 316L is not suitable for exposure to aerated produced water and
any 316L components in the produced water return system will be replaced with
Super Duplex Stainless Steel. Options to avoid crevices in the produced water return
system will be assessed to further reduce the crevice corrosion risk.
The 316L stainless steel hydraulic piping on the SDU is at risk from microbially
induced corrosion if the fluid becomes badly contaminated with seawater. This is
mitigated by a bactericide in the fluid and appropriate design of connectors.
There are no opportunities to monitor the internal condition of the umbilical cores and
the SDU piping.
External Corrosion
The umbilicals are sheathed in Medium Density Polyethylene (MDPE). However the
sheath is not guaranteed to survive pipe lay and operation without damage and water
entry and the offshore umbilical will be deliberately allowed to flood so the corrosion
protection of the tubing cores depends on the corrosion resistance of the Super Duplex
Stainless Steel. At the ambient operating temperatures this will resist general
corrosion, pitting and crevice corrosion in ground water or in seawater. The type
316L stainless steel tubing in the SDU is susceptible to crevice corrosion but this will
be mitigated by the cathodic protection and the design requires it to be fully
electrically bonded to ensure this.
Corrib Natural Gas Pipeline Integrity Management Scheme (PIMS)
Appendix A5 Umbilicals Page 61
The subsea terminations and underwater termination assemblies (UTAs) joining the
umbilicals to the SDU and the well assemblies are designed to flood. They are
fabricated in carbon steel and protected by a coating and an aluminium alloy
sacrificial anode system both externally and internally. The internal anodes also
prevent galvanic corrosion of the UTA bodies that are connected to the Super Duplex
material of the tubes.
The onshore termination unit (OTU) is also a coated carbon steel unit and is protected
externally and internally by magnesium sacrificial anodes.
The sacrificial cathodic protection has been designed for a design life of 30 years.
The metal components are all electrically bonded to each other and, at the manifold
and in the SDU, to the manifold structure to share external cathodic protection (CP).
This is monitored generally for ongoing effectiveness with estimates of remaining
anode volume (where visible) and potential measurements. Performance targets are
set for potential measurements. The results are analysed on a routine basis.
Duplex stainless steels are vulnerable to failure by Hydrogen Embrittlement (HE)
cracking caused by hydrogen uptake when cathodically protected. For pipework this
is normally avoided unless stress in the pipework exceeds the yield stress when
cathodically protected. However the system will be operated in accordance with the
codes, the yield stress will not be exceeded. The 316L stainless steel hydraulic tubing
in the SDU is vulnerable to chloride stress corrosion cracking, pitting and crevice
corrosion. This is fully mitigated by the cathodic protection system provided it is
fully electrically bonded together to protect all tubing.
The cathodic protection will also prevent galvanic corrosion between the stainless
steel and carbon steel components of the various connectors and the SDU, again
provided the items are all bonded together.
Mechanical Damage
Umbilicals laid on the sea bed are at risk from third party interference. However, the
offshore umbilicals and termination units are covered, rock dumped or trenched to
avoid damage by trawl gear and to reduce the potential for damage by dropped
objects and anchors.
The residual risk of damage from the activities of outside parties including anchor
damage and dropped object impacts is mitigated by the declaration of an exclusion
zone, marking on charts and notices to mariners and by the management of works by
Shell and liaison with contractors deploying vessels using anchors and positioning
vessels over the lines and manifold. The SDU is protected by the Manifold protection
structure.
The risk from Shell maintenance and engineering activities is controlled though
standard procedures for risk assessment and approval to work in accordance with the
Shell Subsea Engineering Maintenance & Inspection Procedures.
The ends of the subsea umbilicals at the wells and manifold are visually inspected for
damage along with those structures at intervals determined by risk based assessment.
Any damage is assessed and, if necessary, repair actioned. Exposure of the buried
umbilicals is rectified if significant.
Corrib Natural Gas Pipeline Integrity Management Scheme (PIMS)
Appendix A5 Umbilicals Page 62
Onshore the buried umbilicals are at risk from third party interference, especially
unauthorised excavation. However, it is buried with a minimum of 1.2m cover and
with concrete slab protection at vehicle crossings and ditches. These put the
umbilical out of reach of most routine farming and fishing activity and protect it from
live loads, etc.
The residual risk of damage onshore from the activities of outside parties is mitigated
through pipeline patrols and liaison with landowners and utilities. This includes the
main water crossings as well as along the buried line.
The risk from Shell maintenance and engineering activities is controlled though
standard procedures for risk assessment and permit to work, and for work within
pipeline rights of way.. This applies also to any work on the gas pipeline and outfall
that run alongside the umbilicals.
Fatigue
Fatigue is not a problem for the umbilicals as they remain static through burial, etc.,
and the cores are at a constant temperature and pressure. The small bore tubing on the
SDU will not be at risk from fatigue if it remains fully supported by attachment to the
structure.
Brittle Fracture
All umbilical components are fabricated in materials normally resistant to brittle
fracture and/or are at ambient temperature so the risk is insignificant.
However, cracking can occur if duplex stainless steels components have inappropriate
microstructures, generally caused by poor control of welding or heat treatment. These
problems are mitigated by strict controls during manufacturing and by pressure
testing after installation.
Overstress
The cores are protected from over pressure by relief devices at the terminal associated
with the pumping equipment.
The subsea umbilicals are covered or trenched to avoid overstress through trawl gear
pullover.
The risk from Shell maintenance and engineering activities is controlled though
standard procedures for risk assessment and approval to work in accordance with the
Shell Subsea Engineering Maintenance & Inspection Procedures.
The umbilicals are inspected for deflections with side scan sonar, and, along with the
terminations and SDU, are visually, at intervals assessed to be appropriate by risk-
based analysis. Any damage is assessed and, if necessary repair actioned.
Joint Integrity
Loss of containment can occur if couplings are not properly made up, particularly in
Methanol service. Wherever possible integrity is proved by pressure test.
Visual inspection by ROV is used to detect leaks of the dyed hydraulic fluid, offshore,
and pipeline patrols will look for any signs of leakage onshore. The liquid
inventories of the umbilical system are also monitored to detect sign of loss.
Corrib Natural Gas Pipeline Integrity Management Scheme (PIMS)
Appendix A5 Umbilicals Page 63
Blockage
Blockage can be caused by the degradation of chemicals or by bacterial action. The
chemicals have been selected to prevent bacterial action and are tested on a regular
basis to mitigate this threat. Blockage, should it occur, will be detected as a loss of
flow by the wellhead flow meters.
Integrity Reference Plan and Action
Details of the threats, barriers and monitoring which require control action during
operation together with details of reference documents, and corrective action
requirements will be given in the tabular Integrity Reference Plan, which will be
prepared prior to commissioning.
Corrib Natural Gas Pipeline Integrity Management Scheme (PIMS)
Appendix A6 Water Outfall Page 64
APPENDIX A6 WATER OUTFALL
A6.1 Physical Description
The main parameters for the pipeline are:
Table A6.1 Water Outfall parameters
Details Parameter
Onshore Section
Length 9.2km
Outside Diameter 225mm
Wall thickness 13.25mm (SDR 17)
Max Head 10barg
Material Grade PE 100 (HDPE)
Offshore Section
Length 12.5km
Outside Diameter 250mm
Wall thickness 14.7mm (SDR 17)
Max Head 6barg
Material Grade PE 80 (MDPE)
A6.2 Process Parameters
The Water Outfall has a design pressure of 10barg onshore and 6barg offshore. Flow
in the onshore section is maintained at the Landfall Valve Installation by a self-
regulating backpressure control valve. The offshore line is open ended except for the
Treated Production Water which will be disposed via the umbilical to the manifold.
The water from the terminal will enter the outfall line at a maximum temperature of
35C.
Pump performance will be monitored for anomalous trends including the possibility
of leaks.
A6.3 Integrity Control Activities
The spreadsheet tabulation gives details of the threats, barriers and monitoring which
are assured through control action during operation together with details of reference
documents, and corrective action requirements.
The consequences of damage to the Water Outfall and loss of containment are
essentially restricted to environmental impacts. Remedial and corrective actions be
will be given in the tabular Integrity Reference Plan, which will be prepared prior to
commissioning.
The direct threats and their control measures can be summarised as follows:
Internal Deterioration
Internal deterioration caused by the aqueous fluids is controlled by the use of High
and Medium Density Polyethylene (HDPE and MDPE) pipe material as long as there
is no significant and ongoing organic contamination. The design and operation of the
wastewater treatment facilities mitigates against this happening.
Corrib Natural Gas Pipeline Integrity Management Scheme (PIMS)
Appendix A6 Water Outfall Page 65
External Deterioration
The High and Medium Density Polyethylene (MDPE) outfall pipe material is resistant
to deterioration from ground water and seawater.
Onshore, ground contamination from leaks, spillages and disposal of fuels and other
organic material can cause deterioration and this is managed by pipeline patrol and
landowner liaison.
Polyethylene is vulnerable to deterioration in sunlight but this will not affect the
buried pipeline and the black pigment mitigates the risk for aboveground connections
at the terminal.
.
Mechanical Damage
The offshore underwater and the buried onshore sections of the outfall line are, in
common with the other pipelines, at risk from third party interference.
The offshore section is piggybacked on the gas pipeline and both are trenched to
avoid damage by fishing gear and to reduce the potential for damage by dropped
objects and anchors. The diffuser has a protection structure to mitigate the effect of
trawling pullover loads.
The residual risk of damage from the activities of outside parties including anchor
damage and dropped object impacts is mitigated by marking on charts and notices to
mariners.
The risk from Shell maintenance and engineering activities is controlled though
standard procedures for risk assessment and approval to work in accordance with the
Shell Subsea Engineering Maintenance & Inspection Procedures.
Depending on water depth the offshore trenched lines are inspected for damage with
side scan sonar and visually at intervals determined by risk based assessment. Any
damage is assessed and, if necessary repair actioned. Exposure of the buried pipe is
rectified if significant.
The potential for damage to the onshore, buried outfall is mitigated by a minimum
1.2m cover and concrete slab protection at vehicle crossings and ditches. These keep
it out of reach of most routine farming and fishing activity and protect it from live
loads, etc.
The residual risk of damage from the activities of outside parties is mitigated through
line patrols and liaison with landowners and utilities. This includes the main water
crossings as well as along the buried line.
The risk from Shell maintenance and engineering activities on adjacent lines is
controlled though standard procedures for risk assessment and permit to work This
applies also to any work on the gas pipeline and outfall that run alongside the
umbilicals.
Corrib Natural Gas Pipeline Integrity Management Scheme (PIMS)
Appendix A6 Water Outfall Page 66
Overstress
The offshore outfall is buried to avoid snagging by inshore fishing gear. In the
onshore, buried section the pipe is sufficiently flexible to be tolerant to small
deflections but may not resist damage from significant settlement or landslip. The
movement monitoring of the gas line is also be used to monitor movement of the
outfall.
The risk from Shell maintenance and engineering activities is controlled though
standard procedures for risk assessment and approval to work in accordance with the
Shell Subsea Engineering Maintenance & Inspection Procedures.
Depending on water depth the offshore trenched lines are inspected for damage with
side scan sonar and visually at intervals determined by risk based assessment. Any
damage is assessed and, if necessary repair actioned. Exposure of the buried pipe is
rectified if significant.
Blockage, Etc.
Blockage could be caused by marine growth around and inside the diffuser and
upstream pipe. Blockage, should it occur, will be detected as a loss of flow and the
cause will be investigated visually by ROV.
Malfunction of the self-regulating valve at the Landfall Valve Installation is a
potential source of blockage or mal-operation. In the event the valve would be
exposed for repair
Integrity Reference Plan and Action
The detail identification of threats and barriers, together with performance standards,
immediate action requirements and corrective action requirements will be given in the
tabular Integrity Reference Plan, which will be prepared prior to commissioning.
Corrib Natural Gas Pipeline Integrity Management Scheme (PIMS)
Appendix B Roles & Post Holders Page 67
APPENDIX B ROLES & POST HOLDERS
PIMS Role Organisational Function,
Reference Indicator &
Current Post Holder
TEL NO. LOCATION
Asset Owner Asset Leader X Border,
NORSKE-EPE-P-X
Nominated Responsible
Person (NRP)
Inspection & Maintenance
Team Leader,
SUKEP-EPE-P-EI
Pipeline Competent
Person (PCP)
Principal Pipeline Engineer,
SUKEP-EPE-P-EI
Operations Manager Operations Manager,
SEPIL-EPE-T-IP
Operations and Safety
Systems Focal Point
Terminal Manager,
SEPIL-EPE-T-IP
General Integrity
(Offshore) Focal Point
Pipeline Engineer,
SEPIL-EPE-T-IP
General Integrity
(Onshore) Focal Point
Maintenance Engineer,
SEPIL-EPE-T-IP
Corrosion Management
Focal Point
Corrosion Engineer,
SUKEP-EPE-P-ED
Flow Assurance Focal
Point
Process Engineer,
SUKEP-EPE-T-PC
Change Management
Focal Point
Process Engineer,
SUKEP-EPE-T-PC
Appendix Q6
Corrib Pipeline Internal Corrosion Rate Assessment
1
SHELL E&P IRELAND LIMITED
CORRIB GAS FIELD DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
CORRIB PIPELINE:
INTERNAL CORROSION RATE ASSESSMENT
DOCUMENT NO: COR-39-SH-0011
Document Revision Record
Rev Date Description Prepared Reviewed Approved
01 11/08/2005 First draft Alistair Fox Irene Hannah
02 20/07/2007 Revised and issued for
comment
Alistair Fox David Troup
03 04/12/2007 Issued for distribution Steve Paterson Irene Hannah Geoff Phillips
04 21/01/09 Issued for Application Steve Paterson GC, WvL Geoff Phillips
2
Corrib Pipeline:
Internal Corrosion Rate Assessment
1.0 Purpose and Scope
This document provides an assessment of the internal corrosion rate for the offshore
and onshore sections of the Corrib pipeline. This assessment has been undertaken
with the most recent flow assurance data using Shells HYDROCOR corrosion
modelling software. The corrosion assessment is based on a field life of 20 years.
2.0 Corrosion Assessment
The corrosion assessment has used the Shell HYDROCOR (version 3.01) corrosion
modelling software which has been developed following many years of research
1-5
from the original De Waard-Milliams relationship for CO
2
corrosion
1
which is used
as the basis for industry standards.
The production profiles used in the assessment have been derived from the flow
assurance review undertaken by the Shell Process discipline Technical Authority, in
which a 20-year production scenario has been developed.
2.1 Key Assumptions
The following are the key assumptions used in the corrosion assessment:
1. Water rate = Water Gas Ratio (WGR) Gas Rate. The water that condenses
in the sub-sea equipment prior to the pipeline inlet is included in the
aqueous phase input.
2. The peak methanol injection rate required is 2.2 m
3
/h (or 53 m
3
/d). This
occurs in year 3. The minimum rate is 0.5 m
3
/h. This analysis has assumed
the peak methanol injection rate for all years. The actual amount of
methanol will vary from this amount depending on operational analyses.
The methanol will be injected at the manifold and will mix with any water.
3. Aqueous rate = Water rate + Methanol rate.
4. Condensate flow = Condensate Gas Ratio (CGR) Gas Rate.
5. The highest expected pipeline inlet temperature is 75
o
C. This is the
assumption used as the base case. The pipeline inlet temperature has also
been modelled at 60
o
C as a less conservative sensitivity case.
6. It is assumed no oxygen in the methanol as a result of removal of oxygen in
the plant.
3
2.2 Production Profile
The production profile from the latest flow assurance review is given in Table 1
below.
Pipeline Inlet
Pressure
Peak Gas Flow Condensate
Flow
Aqueous Flow (incl.
53 m
3
/d MeOH)
Year barg mln Sm3/d m
3
/d m
3
/d
1 127 6.31 0.64 92.1
2 140 10.00 0.62 125.5
3 135 9.74 0.67 162.9
4 88 7.62 2.07 118.8
5 78 5.89 0.32 93.1
6 72 4.70 0.32 90.5
7 63 3.96 0.32 88.3
8 54 3.37 0.32 88.0
9 48 2.89 0.32 87.0
10 42 2.52 0.32 86.9
11 36 2.24 0.32 87.5
12 29 1.98 0.32 87.7
13 24 1.73 0.32 88.5
Table 1 Scenario Results for Pipeline Inlet Conditions
Years 14 to 20 are assumed to be the same as Year 13.
2.3 Design Life
The pipeline has an overall design life of 30 years. The (operating) field life is
anticipated to be approximately 20 years. This corrosion assessment is based on a
field life of 20 years.
2.4 HYDROCOR Input Data
The following input data were used with HYDROCOR (Attachment 1) for the
assessment to predict the internal corrosion rates:
- CO
2
content of the gas = 0.3 mole%
- H
2
S content of the gas is 0.1 ppm v/v (no effect on corrosion in the pipeline)
- Pipeline inlet temperature = 75C with 60C used as a sensitivity calculation
- Ambient Temperature = 10C
- Condensed water properties:
100 ppm chlorides
5 ppm bicarbonates
5 ppm organic acids
4
- Formation water properties for the sensitivity study
197,000 ppm chloride
5 ppm bicarbonates
100 ppm organic acids
- Corrosion inhibitor availability (three cases considered were 0%, 95% and 99%).
- Alcohol types = methanol (injected at 98% purity).
- Alcohol concentration = 87% (input gives actual pipeline concentration of 37%).
- Pipeline internal diameter = 0.4572m.
- Total pipeline length = 92.5km.
- Pipeline heat transfer coefficients are given in Attachment 4.
- Pipeline elevation is given in Attachment 4 and shown in Attachment 5.
5
3.0 Calculated Corrosion Rates
3.1 Offshore Pipeline Base Case
The following assumptions were used for the base case calculations:
1. Pipeline inlet temperature is 75C.
2. No formation water is produced (this is a reasonable assumption because
operation with formation water could lead to scaling and pigging issues, and
would be mitigated by well control or re-completion).
The predicted corrosion rates are given in Table 2 and Figure 1 below. Typical output
screens are given in Attachments 1-3. It can be seen that the predicted corrosion rates
decrease with:
(i) decreasing fluid temperature along the pipeline away from Corrib towards
the Terminal
(ii) decreasing production in later years.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+
BOL CI 0% 0.46 0.63 0.44 0.49 0.47 0.38 0.42 0.4 0.36 0.32 0.29 0.29 0.27
TOL CI 0% 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.1 0.12 0.13 0.16 0.19 0.23
BOL CI 95% 0.12 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11
TOL CI 95% 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.1 0.12 0.13 0.16 0.19 0.23
BOL CI 99% 0.1 0.11 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
TOL CI 99% 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.1 0.12 0.13 0.16 0.19 0.23
Year Corrosion Rate
(mm/yr)
Table 2 Maximum CO
2
Corrosion (mm/yr) for Corrib Offshore Pipeline: Bottom of the Line (BOL)
and Top of the Line (TOL) for 0%, 95% and 99% corrosion inhibitor availabilities
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0 5 10 15
Years
C
o
r
r
o
s
i
o
n
R
a
t
e
(
m
m
/
y
r
)
BOL CI 0%
TOL CI 0%
BOL CI 95%
TOL CI 95%
BOL CI 99%
TOL CI 99%
Figure 1: Maximum CO2 Corrosion (mm/yr) for Corrib Offshore Pipeline: Bottom Of the Line (BOL)
and Top Of the Line (TOL)
6
The maximum uninhibited corrosion rate of the offshore pipeline occurs in year 2 at
the 6 oclock (BOL) position and is approximately 0.65 mm/yr. The cumulative
uninhibited wall loss over 20 years is approximately 7.1 mm. The location is within
the first 400 metres from the pipeline inlet where the pipeline wall thickness has been
increased to provide a higher corrosion allowance (refer Table 3).
Distance from
Corrib (km)
Corrosion
Allowance (mm)
0.0 6.4
0.4 3.6
0.8 2.3
1.6 1.4
2.5 1.0
93.0 1.0
Table 3 Corrib Pipeline Corrosion Allowance
The application of corrosion inhibitor results in a significant reduction in corrosion
rate to 0.1 mm/year assuming 99% inhibitor availability (Table 2). The maximum
cumulative inhibited BOL corrosion over the 20-year field life at the pipeline inlet
reduces to approximately 2 mm, which is well within the design corrosion allowance.
The predicted cumulative inhibited BOL corrosion for the remainder of the pipeline is
also within the given corrosion allowances for the 20 year field life.
Stratified wavy flow is predicted for the Corrib pipeline for the full field life.
Corrosion at the 12 oclock position (TOL) cannot be mitigated with corrosion
inhibitor in stratified wavy flow conditions because the inhibitor stays in the liquid
phase and is not transported to the top of the pipe. The predicted corrosion rate of the
offshore pipeline at the TOL position is approximately 0.05 mm/yr in year 1 (Table
2), but increases to above 0.2 mm/yr in years 13+. However, the location of the
highest TOL corrosion also occurs near to the pipeline inlet where the corrosion
allowance is higher. The TOL corrosion rate for the remainder of the pipeline is
negligible because of the low condensation rates.
The predicted maximum cumulative corrosion at the TOL position over the 20-year
field life is approximately 3 mm and occurs within 400m of the pipeline inlet where
there is a corrosion allowance of 6.4 mm. Although this corrosion appears to be
relatively high, the TOL corrosion model
5
used in HYDROCOR will tend to give
conservative predictions of TOL corrosion with respect to the Corrib conditions.
Furthermore, TOL corrosion is mitigated by methanol preferentially condensing at the
TOL position. HYDROCOR does not model this co-condensing effect of methanol
but the simple flash calculation (assuming a system pressure of 80 bar for a typical
Corrib fluid) shown below (Table 4) demonstrates that methanol is expected to be the
dominant condensing phase at the TOL position. This is subject to further ongoing
modelling but initial testing under Corrib conditions has confirmed that co-
condensing methanol (50 wt%) significantly reduces the TOL corrosion rate from
0.21 mm/yr to 0.03 mm/yr. Since continuous methanol injection is required for
hydrate suppression it is highly unlikely that the TOL corrosion predicted by
HYDROCOR will actually occur in practice.
7
Component Vapour comp at 60C Condensed liquid at
30C
MFD code [Chemical
name]
mol% mol%
1P [methane] 92.818 2.2395
2P [ethane] 2.9271 0.15839
N2 [nitrogen] 2.7629 2.42E-02
CO2 [carbon dioxide] 0.27063 4.93E-02
H2O [water] 0.20129 22.787
MEOH [methanol] 1.0197 74.741
Table 4 Methanol Condensation at TOL Position Calculation (System Pressure 80bar)
In order to meet the 20-year pipeline design life, taking into account the conservative
assumptions used, the required corrosion inhibitor availability for the Corrib Pipeline
is 99% for the base case.
3.2 Offshore Pipeline Sensitivity Cases
Three sensitivity cases have been examined:
1. Pipeline inlet temperature of 60C;
2. Production of formation water containing 100 ppm organic acids;
3. Inhibited corrosion inhibitor rates of 0.05 mm/yr and 0.03 mm/yr.
3.2.1 Pipeline Inlet Temperature
It is expected that the pipeline will operate at a lower temperature than the original
design temperature of 75C. Decreasing the pipeline inlet temperature to 60C reduces
the corrosion rate, principally at the pipeline inlet (Table 5). This shows that for the
20 year field life the cumulative uninhibited wall loss due to corrosion at the BOL
position close to the pipeline input is reduced from 7.1 mm to 3.5 mm and at the TOL
position from 3.1 mm to 2.2 mm.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+
60C BOL CI 0% 0.32 0.35 0.4 0.38 0.33 0.24 0.2 0.16 0.13 0.11 0.1 0.1 0.09
60C TOL CI 0% 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.09 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.17
Corrosion Rate
(mm/yr)
Year
Table 5: Maximum CO
2
Corrosion (mm/yr) for Corrib Offshore Pipeline: (BOL) and (TOL) with 60C
pipeline inlet temperature
3.2.2 Formation Water
The results presented above have assumed only condensed water is present in the
pipeline. It is unlikely that formation water will be produced because of the possible
liquid handling problems, which means that any well producing significant formation
water will be shut in. However, if some formation water is produced due to
8
production control issues then this will influence the potential for corrosion. The
formation water is estimated to have an organic acid content of 100 ppm (20 times
that of the condensed water). Sensitivity analysis calculations have been made in
which the water entering the pipeline is assumed to be 100% formation water with an
organic acid content of 100 ppm, and a bicarbonate content of 5 ppm. The results of
these calculations are given in Table 6. Uninhibited BOL corrosion rates close to the
pipeline input increase to approximately 2 3 mm/yr and TOL corrosion rates also
increase significantly. However, these corrosion rates will be mitigated by the
corrosion inhibitor for the BOL position and by the co-condensing methanol for the
TOL position.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13+
FormW BOL CI 0% 2.08 2.95 2.14 2.70 2.68 2.28 2.68 2.75 2.54 2.35 2.28 2.45 2.44
FormW TOL CI 0% 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.22 0.27 0.30 0.34 0.40 0.49 0.58
Corrosion Rate
(mm/yr)
Year
Table 6 Maximum CO
2
Corrosion (mm/yr) for Corrib Offshore Pipeline: (BOL) and (TOL) with
Formation Water
3.2.2 Lower Inhibited Corrosion Rates
The corrosion calculations have assumed a standard inhibited corrosion rate of 0.1
mm/year and the overall corrosion rate has been derived from the following
relationship:
CR = (0.1 x f) + (CR
u
x (1-f)) where:
CR = Overall corrosion rate
f = Availability of corrosion inhibitor as a fraction
CR
u
= Predicted uninhibited corrosion rate
Current laboratory testing of the corrosion inhibitor to determine the required dose
rate for the inhibited corrosion rate could demonstrate that a lower inhibited corrosion
rate such as 0.03 - 0.05 mm/yr is possible. This would extend the effective service life
with respect to corrosion assuming 99% corrosion inhibitor availability and taking
into account the inhibitive effect of methanol.
3.3 Onshore Pipeline
The corrosion assessment for the Corrib pipeline shows that corrosion rates in the
onshore section will be an order of magnitude lower. This is because of three reasons:
1. Ambient temperature (10C)
2. Higher pH
3. Higher dissolved Fe
2+/3+
ion content.
The output from the HYDROCOR corrosion modelling indicates that the uninhibited
corrosion rates assuming condensed water are approximately 0.05 mm/yr at the BOL
position (declining in later life) and zero mm/yr at the TOL position.
The uninhibited corrosion rates assuming formation water production (which will be
limited by well control) are approximately 0.08 mm/yr at the BOL position (declining
in later life) and zero mm/yr at the TOL position.
9
Inhibited corrosion rates will therefore be below 0.05 mm/yr and the 1 mm corrosion
allowance will be more than sufficient to mitigate the internal corrosion threat to the
onshore pipeline for the anticipated operating field life of 20 years.
In summary, very limited corrosion is expected in the onshore line.
4.0 Conclusion
The corrosion assessment indicates that the expected corrosion rates in both the
offshore and onshore sections of the Corrib pipeline are within the design corrosion
allowances for a service life of 20 years provided corrosion mitigation with corrosion
inhibitor and methanol is correctly applied.
10
5.0 References
1. C. de Waard & D.E Milliams, Corrosion, Vol 31, 5, (1975), p177.
2. C. de Waard, U. Lotz & D.E. Milliams, NACE Corrosion/91, Paper 577.
3. C. de Waard, U. Lotz & A. Dugstad, NACE Corrosion/95, Paper 128.
4. B. Pots, NACE Corrosion/95, Paper 132.
5. B. Pots & E. Hendriksen, NACE Corrosion/2000, Paper 031.
11
6.0 Attachments
Attachment 1: HYDROCOR Output for Year 1: CO2 Corrosion (mm/yr) profile for Corrib Offshore
Pipeline: Bottom Of the Line (BOL) and Top Of the Line (TOL) at 75C
Database: CorribREV4.xls
Case: Corrib Yr 1 Version 3.01
MAIN OUTPUT for LCR+99 model
CO
2
content gas mole% 0.3
Max CO
2
/H
2
S corrosion mm/y 0.46 Flow pattern Stratified wavy
H
2
S content gas mole% 0
Max CO
2
TOL corrosion mm/y 0.06 Liquid holdup 0.29%
Free elemental sulfur 0 Maximum occurs at m 30 Mixture velocity m/s 3.85
Scale protection factor 1.00 Film velocity m/s 0.86
Pressure inlet bar 127 Oil protection factor 1.00 Relative film length 1.00
Temperature inlet C 75 Glycol protection factor 0.10 Watercut 98.2%
Ambient temperature C 10 H
2
S pitting factor 1.00 pH 4.67
Gas flow rate mln Sm3/d 6.3146 Scale/inhibitor failure 0 Corrosion regime CO2 sweet
Liquid HC type 1
NGL/oil flow rate m3/d 0.636
Water flow rate m3/d 92.114
Water chemistry 1
Chlorides ppm 100
Bicarbonates ppm 5
Organic acids ppm 5
Annual wet operation % of time 100
Inhibitor availability % 0
Alcohol type 4
Alcohol concentration w% 87
Pipe inside diameter m 0.4572
Pipeline length km 92.5
PIPELINE
CORROSION CONTROL
WATER ANALYSIS
OPERATING CONDITIONS
CORRODENTS
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000
Distance, m
0
1
2
3
4
5
Imperial units
NGL
No formation water
Methanol
Expert mode Elevation profile
Corrosion rate bottom, mm/y Corrosion rate top, mm/y
H2S
Attachment 2: CO2 Corrosion (mm/yr) profile for Corrib Offshore Pipeline: Bottom Of the Line (BOL)
and Top Of the Line (TOL) at 60C. N.B. Different y-axis scale to Attachment 1
Database: CorribREV4.xls
Case: Corrib Yr 1 Version 3.01
MAIN OUTPUT for LCR+99 model
CO
2
content gas mole% 0.3
Max CO
2
/H
2
S corrosion mm/y 0.32 Flow pattern Stratified wavy
H
2
S content gas mole% 0
Max CO
2
TOL corrosion mm/y 0.04 Liquid holdup 0.27%
Free elemental sulfur 0 Maximum occurs at m 100 Mixture velocity m/s 3.66
Scale protection factor 1.00 Film velocity m/s 0.80
Pressure inlet bar 127 Oil protection factor 1.00 Relative film length 1.00
Temperature inlet C 60 Glycol protection factor 0.13 Watercut 97.9%
Ambient temperature C 10 H
2
S pitting factor 1.00 pH 4.78
Gas flow rate mln Sm3/d 6.3146 Scale/inhibitor failure 0 Corrosion regime CO2 sweet
Liquid HC type 1
NGL/oil flow rate m3/d 0.636
Water flow rate m3/d 92.114
Water chemistry 1
Chlorides ppm 100
Bicarbonates ppm 5
Organic acids ppm 5
Annual wet operation % of time 100
Inhibitor availability % 0
Alcohol type 4
Alcohol concentration w% 87
Pipe inside diameter m 0.4572
Pipeline length km 92.5
PIPELINE
CORROSION CONTROL
WATER ANALYSIS
OPERATING CONDITIONS
CORRODENTS
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000
Distance, m
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
Imperial units
NGL
No formation water
Methanol
Expert mode Elevation profile
Corrosion rate bottom, mm/y Corrosion rate top, mm/y
H2S
12
Attachment 3: CO2 Corrosion (mm/yr) profile for Corrib Offshore Pipeline: Bottom Of the Line (BOL)
and Top Of the Line (TOL) with Formation Water N.B. Different y-axis scale to Attachment 1
Database: CorribREV4.xls
Case: Corrib Yr 1 Version 3.01
MAIN OUTPUT for LCR+99 model
CO
2
content gas mole% 0.3
Max CO
2
/H
2
S corrosion mm/y 2.08 Flow pattern Stratified wavy
H
2
S content gas mole% 0
Max CO
2
TOL corrosion mm/y 0.14 Liquid holdup 0.29%
Free elemental sulfur 0 Maximum occurs at m 30 Mixture velocity m/s 3.85
Scale protection factor 1.00 Film velocity m/s 0.86
Pressure inlet bar 127 Oil protection factor 1.00 Relative film length 1.00
Temperature inlet C 75 Glycol protection factor 0.10 Watercut 98.2%
Ambient temperature C 10 H
2
S pitting factor 1.00 pH 4.01
Gas flow rate mln Sm3/d 6.3146 Scale/inhibitor failure 0 Corrosion regime CO2 sweet
Liquid HC type 1
NGL/oil flow rate m3/d 0.636
Water flow rate m3/d 92.114
Water chemistry 3
Chlorides ppm 100
Bicarbonates ppm 5
Organic acids ppm 100
Annual wet operation % of time 100
Inhibitor availability % 0
Alcohol type 4
Alcohol concentration w% 87
Pipe inside diameter m 0.4572
Pipeline length km 92.5
PIPELINE
CORROSION CONTROL
WATER ANALYSIS
OPERATING CONDITIONS
CORRODENTS
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000
Distance, m
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
Imperial units
NGL
Formation water
Methanol
Expert mode Elevation profile
Corrosion rate bottom, mm/y Corrosion rate top, mm/y
H2S
13
Attachment 4: Elevation and heat transfer data for Corrib offshore and onshore pipeline
Node Distance Elevation Heat transfer
m m W/m
2
K
1 0 -346 67
2 1000 -349 67
3 2000 -354 67
4 3000 -355 67
5 4000 -354 66
6 5000 -351 66
7 6000 -344 66
8 7000 -339 66
9 8000 -332 66
10 9000 -327 66
11 10000 -324 66
12 11000 -320 66
13 12000 -312 66
14 13000 -307 66
15 14000 -302 66.5
16 15000 -295 66.5
17 16000 -293 66.5
18 17000 -283 66.5
19 18000 -281 66.5
20 19000 -273 66.5
21 20000 -266 67
22 21000 -254 67
23 22000 -246 67
24 23000 -232 67
25 24000 -222 67
26 25000 -207 67
27 26000 -200 67
28 27000 -193 67
29 28000 -183 67
30 29000 -173 24
31 30000 -168 24
32 31000 -166 24
33 32000 -161 24
34 33000 -156 24
35 34000 -151 24
36 35000 -149 24
37 36000 -147 24
38 37000 -146 24
39 38000 -144 24
40 39000 -142 21.5
41 40000 -139 21.5
42 41000 -137 21.5
43 42000 -135 21.5
44 43000 -134 21.5
45 44000 -133 21.5
46 45000 -129 21.5
14
47 46000 -127 21.5
48 47000 -124 21.5
49 48000 -122 21.5
50 49000 -120 21.5
51 50000 -117 21.5
52 51000 -115 21.5
53 52000 -112 21.5
54 53000 -110 21.5
55 54000 -107 21.5
56 55000 -102 21.5
57 56000 -105 21.5
58 57000 -106 21.5
59 58000 -101 21.5
60 59000 -100 21.5
61 60000 -99 21.5
62 61000 -95 21.5
63 62000 -91 21.5
64 63000 -90 21.5
65 64000 -88 21.5
66 65000 -80 21.5
67 66000 -80 19
68 67000 -80 19
69 68000 -79 19
70 69000 -76 19
71 70000 -73 19
72 71000 -59 19
73 72000 -49 19
74 73000 -41 19
75 74000 -44 20
76 75000 -43 20
77 76000 -40 20
78 77000 -37 20
79 78000 -32 20
80 79000 -26 20
81 80000 -22 20
82 81000 -17 20
83 82000 -15 20
84 83000 -5 44
85 84000 5 3
86 85000 10 3
87 86000 20 3
88 87000 10 3
89 88000 12 3
90 89000 4 3
91 90000 10 3
92 91000 22 3
93 92000 30 3
94 92500 44 3
15
Attachment 5: Elevation Profile of Corrib Pipeline
-400
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Distance from Corrib (km)
E
l
e
v
a
t
i
o
n
a
b
o
v
e
S
e
a
l
e
v
e
l
(
m
)
Appendix Q7
Quantified Risk Analysis
DNV ENERGY
Quantified Risk Analysis for the
Corrib Onshore Pipeline
FINAL Report for Shell E & P Ireland Ltd
Project no.: 32217602
Rev 3, January 2009
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Management Summary
Shell E and P Ireland Ltd (SEPIL) is planning to develop a gas field which lies off the west coast of
Ireland (Corrib project). The project comprises sub-sea wells tied back to an onshore gas terminal via
a sub-sea manifold and a pipeline. The produced raw gas will be conditioned at the terminal to
produce and export gas (via a pipeline for the domestic market) and condensate. DNV was
commissioned to carry out a QRA of the onshore section of the pipeline that will transport gas to the
terminal. The QRA does not include the export pipeline from the terminal.
The scope of the work is to generate, for the pipeline, including the Landfall Valve Installation (LVI):
Risk transects
Individual risk at the residence nearest the pipeline/LVI
Individual risk contours along the pipeline
Societal risk for the pipeline section with the highest risk
Then assess the risks.
The QRA methodology followed the classical approach:
Define a representative set of scenarios that characterise the system being analysed
Determine the frequencies, consequences and impact of these scenarios
Combine these to give the cumulative risk from the scenarios
Compare the risk predictions with suitable risk criteria
The predicted individual risk transects for the pipeline and LVI (for operation at 100 and 144 bar) are
shown below. The risks are higher in the vicinity of the LVI because of the higher leak frequencies
associated with the equipment.
Risk Transects Corrib Pipeline IGE
1.00E-13
1.00E-12
1.00E-11
1.00E-10
1.00E-09
1.00E-08
-300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300
Distance m
R
i
s
k
o
f
F
a
t
a
l
i
t
y
p
e
r
y
e
a
r
Resident 144bar
Resident 100bar
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Risk Transects Landfall Valve IGE
1.00E-10
1.00E-09
1.00E-08
1.00E-07
1.00E-06
1.00E-05
1.00E-04
-300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300
Distance m
R
i
s
k
o
f
F
a
t
a
l
i
t
y
p
e
r
y
e
a
r
Resident 144 bar
Resident 100 bar
The predicted individual risk at the nearest housing is shown below.
Distance to nearest
dwelling (m)
Corrib Analysis
144 bar
Corrib Analysis
100 bar
Pipeline 140 5.0E-11 1.0E-12
Landfall Valve Installation 246 9.7E-08 N/A (1)
Note that for operation at 100 bar, the risk of fatality at 246m is predicted to be zero as the thermal
radiation level is too low to cause fatality.
The societal risk for a specified length of the onshore pipeline is shown in FN format below, together
with a criterion line in a recognised pipeline code (PD 8010-3:2009)).
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FN Curve (PD 8010) IGE
1.00E-13
1.00E-12
1.00E-11
1.00E-10
1.00E-09
1.00E-08
1.00E-07
1.00E-06
1.00E-05
1.00E-04
1 10 100
Number of Casualties
C
u
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y
PD 8010 Criterion
Corrib 144 bar IGE
Corrib 100 bar IGE
The conclusions drawn were that
The individual risk of fatality predicted for a house resident at the housing nearest to the
pipeline, assuming an operating pressure of 100bar, was approximately 1E-12 per year. For
an operating pressure of 144bar, the predicted risk was 5E-11 per year.
The societal risk for the section of the pipeline with the highest risk had a maximum in the
order of 4E-11 per year (100 bar) and 3E-10 per year (144 bar), more than five orders of
magnitude lower than the criterion line derived from experience with UK natural gas pipelines
(which is in the order of 1E-4 and 1E-5 per year).
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Contents:
1.0 Introduction.......................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Brief History ........................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Scope of Work ....................................................................................................... 1
1.3 Background to the Study........................................................................................ 1
2.0 The Proposed Pipeline ........................................................................................ 3
2.1 The Route Selection............................................................................................... 3
2.2 Distance between the Pipeline and Occupied Buildings ........................................ 4
3.0 Methodology for the Quantified Risk Assessment ........................................... 7
3.1 Scenario Definition and Frequency Analysis.......................................................... 7
3.1.1 Underground Pipeline.......................................................................................................7
3.1.2 Equipment Associated with the Landfall Valve Installation. ...............................................7
3.1.3 Ignition Probability ............................................................................................................8
3.2 Consequence and Impact Analysis........................................................................ 8
3.3 Risk Analysis.......................................................................................................... 8
3.4 Meteorological Conditions...................................................................................... 8
3.5 Vapour Cloud Explosions....................................................................................... 9
4.0 Risk Predictions and Assessment...................................................................... 9
4.1 Risk Transects ....................................................................................................... 9
4.2 Individual Risk at the Nearest Dwellings .............................................................. 11
4.3 Individual Risk Contours ...................................................................................... 11
4.4 Societal Risk ........................................................................................................ 13
4.5 Assessment ......................................................................................................... 14
5.0 Conclusions ....................................................................................................... 15
6.0 References.......................................................................................................... 15
Appendix I Summary of the Main Points from Previous Studies (Relevant to the
QRA Methodology). ............................................................................................................. 17
Appendix II Failure Frequencies.................................................................................... 23
Appendix III Frequency Determination for Third Party Interference............................ 28
Appendix IV Consequence Analysis............................................................................... 60
Appendix V Summary of Major Natural Gas Pipeline Incidents .................................. 66
Appendix VI Risk Tolerability Criteria............................................................................. 68
Appendix VII Safeguards taken by SEPIL to reduce Failure Frequencies................ 72
Appendix VIII Pipeline Route for FN Calculation.......................................................... 76
Appendix IX Risk Transects and Societal Risks............................................................ 77
Figure 1 Schematic of the Pipeline System ............................................................................ 2
Figure 2 Original Pipeline Routing .......................................................................................... 5
Figure 3 Proposed Pipeline Routing ....................................................................................... 6
Figure 4 Risk Transects for the Pipeline ............................................................................... 10
Figure 5 Risk Transects for the Landfall Valve Installation ................................................... 10
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Figure 6 Individual Risk Contours (100bar, Corrib specific frequencies)............................... 12
Figure 7 Societal Risk (1km length) ...................................................................................... 13
Figure 8 Societal Risk (1.6km length) ................................................................................... 13
Figure 9 Comparison of Risk Transects................................................................................ 14
Figure 10 Individual Risk transects (120bara) (Advantica and JPK) ..................................... 20
Figure 11 Individual Risk transects (345bara) (Advantica and JPK) ..................................... 21
Figure 12 Individual Risk transects at different Operating Pressures (Advantica) ................ 21
Figure 13 Societal Risk (Advantica) ...................................................................................... 22
Figure 14 Discharge Rates from Ruptures............................................................................ 64
Figure 15 Accumulation of Thermal Dose............................................................................. 67
Figure 16 IGE Societal Risk Criterion ................................................................................... 72
Figure 17 PD 8010 Societal Risk Criterion Line.................................................................... 74
Figure 18 Pipeline Risk Transect 100 bar, EGIG Frequencies............................................ 80
Figure 19 Landfall Valve Installation Risk Transect 100 bar. .............................................. 80
Figure 20 Pipeline Risk Transect 144 bar, EGIG Frequencies........................................... 81
Figure 21 Landfall Valve Installation Risk Transect 144 bar. ............................................. 81
Figure 22 Pipeline Risk Transect 100 bar and 144 bar Corrib Frequencies....................... 82
Figure 23 Landfall Valve Installation Risk Transect 345 bar upstream/144 bar
downstream ......................................................................................................... 82
Figure 24 Pipeline Risk Transect 100 bar and 144 bar ...................................................... 83
Figure 25 Comparison of Risk Transects from Different Analyses........................................ 83
Figure 26 Societal Risk (1km length) .................................................................................... 84
Figure 27 Societal Risk (1.6km length) ................................................................................. 84
Table 1 Pipeline Characteristics.............................................................................................. 3
Table 2 Individual Risk at the Nearest Dwelling to the Pipeline ............................................ 11
Table 3 Hazard Distances for Ruptures................................................................................ 14
Table 4 Pipeline Failure Frequencies J P Kenny ............................................................... 17
Table 5 Release Orientations................................................................................................ 17
Table 6 Ignition Probabilities................................................................................................. 18
Table 7 Hazard Distances for Pipeline Pressure of 144bara (Advantica) ............................. 19
Table 8 Release Orientation for leaks (Advantica)................................................................ 19
Table 9 Pipeline Failure Frequencies (Advantica)................................................................. 19
Table 10 Ignition Probabilities (Advantica)............................................................................ 20
Table 11 Failure Frequencies EGIG Data.......................................................................... 23
Table 12 Failure Frequencies PD 8010-3 .......................................................................... 24
Table 13 Release Orientation (Holes)................................................................................... 25
Table 14 Ignition probabilities (EGIG) ................................................................................... 25
Table 15 Ignition probabilities - Ruptures (IGEM) ................................................................. 25
Table 16 Equipment Failure Frequencies (per year)............................................................. 26
Table 17 Hole Sizes Used in the Analysis ............................................................................ 61
Table 18 Discharge Rates from Ruptures............................................................................. 62
Table 19 Fireball Consequences (full bore ruptures) ............................................................ 63
Table 20 Jet Fire Consequences (holes). Distances to specified levels of thermal radiation
(m) ......................................................................................................................................... 63
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Table 21 Fatality and Casualty Probabilities ......................................................................... 64
Table 22 Failure Frequencies Corrib Pipeline (144 bar) .................................................... 72
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1.0 Introduction
Shell E and P Ireland Ltd (SEPIL) is planning to develop a gas field which lies off the west coast
of Ireland (Corrib project). The project comprises sub-sea wells tied back to an onshore gas
terminal via a sub-sea manifold and a pipeline. The produced raw gas will be conditioned at the
terminal to produce and export gas (via a pipeline for the domestic market) and condensate. A
schematic of the project is shown in Figure 1.
Det Norske Veritas (DNV) carried out a quantified risk analysis (QRA) of the gas terminal in
2003 (last updated in 2005), and SEPIL has now requested DNV to carry out a QRA of the
onshore section of the pipeline that will transport gas to the terminal. The QRA does not include
the export pipeline from the terminal.
1.1 Brief History
A QRA was carried out for the proposed onshore pipeline by J P Kenny in 2003. An updated
report was issued to the Department of Communications, Marine and Natural Resources
(Petroleum Affairs Division) (PAD) in 2005. The report was reviewed by BPA on behalf of PAD
and then by AEA Technology (also on behalf of PAD). An independent study by Advantica was
carried out for the Minister for Communications, Marine and Natural Resources. This was a
wide ranging study which involved document review, discussions with SEPIL and their
consultants, consideration of both oral and written communications and an independent check
on the calculated risk levels. These all generally concurred with the conclusion in the QRA that
the Corrib pipeline was of low risk and below the internationally accepted level of 1E-06 per year
where risk becomes broadly acceptable. A short summary of these analyses and commentaries
so far as they are relevant to QRA is given in Appendix I. SEPIL has accepted the
recommendations arising from the Advantica Independent Safety Review, and has committed to
implement the associated design enhancements.
1.2 Scope of Work
The scope of this work is to generate, for the pipeline, including the Landfall Valve Installation
(LVI):
Risk transects
Individual risk at the residence nearest the pipeline/LVI
Individual risk contours along the pipeline
Societal risk for the pipeline section with the highest risk.
The predicted risks are then to be assessed.
1.3 Background to the Study
The need for the onshore pipeline route modification arose out of the project impasse
experienced in 2005, when some members of the local community blocked SEPIL from
accessing lands for the construction of the onshore pipeline. Their concerns were mainly
related to the safety and integrity of the pipeline, and the risks it was perceived to pose for the
community living near to it. This led to the appointment of Advantica (see 1.1 above). The main
design change associated with implementing Advanticas recommendations is the installation of
a high integrity pressure protection system at the landfall (LVI) to limit the pressure in the
onshore pipeline to 144 bar.
The proposed modifications of the route of the onshore section of the pipeline follows a
recommendation made in a report by independent mediator Peter Cassells to modify the route
of the pipeline in the vicinity of Rossport to address community concerns regarding proximity to
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housing. SEPIL considered that the recommendations arising from Advanticas review could
have been dealt with within the remit of the existing consents, subject to confirmation of
appropriate planning status of the modified LVI, however, a modification to the route as
recommended by Peter Cassells could not be accommodated within the existing consents.
Consequently, SEPIL is now applying for the necessary statutory consents to modify the route.
This QRA has been carried out to support the new application.
Figure 1 Schematic of the Pipeline System
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2.0 The Proposed Pipeline
The pipeline characteristics relevant for the QRA are shown in Table 1.
Table 1 Pipeline Characteristics
Description Previous Analysis
(J P Kenny)
Current Analysis
Length of onshore section (km) 9 9.2
Design flowrate (mmscfd) 350 350
Design Pressure (bar) 345 144 (2)
Normal Operating Pressure (bar) (1) 51-141 100 (1) (2)
Wellhead shut in pressure (start of field
life) (bara)
345 345 (2)
Outer diameter (mm) 508 (20) 508 (20)
Wall thickness (mm) 27.1 27.1
Inner diameter (mm) 453.8 453.8
Gas temperature (deg C) 10 10
Gas molecular weight 17 16.9
Depth of cover (minimum, m) 1.2 1.2
Design Factor 0.72 0.3
(1) The operating pressure for the first four years will be approximately 100 bar. Thereafter it
will reduce to 60 bar and lower (ref Offshore Basis of Design).
(2) The QRA has been carried out for the three different pressures.
The overall design code for the pipeline will be IS EN 14161. However, where the provisions of
IS 328 or PD 8010 exceed those of IS EN 14161, then these are to be applied (with IS 328 as
the primary supplementary code).
2.1 The Route Selection
The original proposed route of the onshore section of the pipeline (see Figure 2) will, following
recommendations of Mr Cassells, be changed. A formal route selection process was
implemented to determine an alternative route. This involved a wide ranging review of several
options for a new route. Route selection criteria were used to shortlist the various corridors and
thereby determine a final route that will be submitted to the Irish authorities for a permit. The
route selection criteria were grouped as follows:
Community criteria
Environmental criteria
Technical criteria and project requirements
The first of these was subdivided into:
Maximisation of safety
Minimisation of impacts on people
Consideration of the proximity of the pipeline to housing/schools/public centres
Consideration of the planning issues that might be implemented after the construction of the
pipeline (which might restrict future housing close to the pipeline)
The final route, selected following examination of the various options, is shown in Figure 3.
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2.2 Distance between the Pipeline and Occupied Buildings
IS-EN 14161 (2003) contains a categorization system for the fluid being transported which is
dependent on the hazard potential. Minimum distances to occupied buildings are not specified.
PD 8010-1 (2004) contains a similar categorization system and would recommend a minimum
distance of between 3 and 5m (depending on the categorization of the Corrib gas) to occupied
dwellings.
IS 328 (2003) covers manufactured towns gas, natural gas and substitute natural gas at
pressures in the range 16-100 bar and temperatures in the range -25 to 120C. Recommended
distances are similar to those in IGE/TD/1 which is a code widely used for natural gas pipelines
in the UK (3m between a pipeline with a design factor of 0.3 and a thickness in excess of
11.91mm and an occupied dwelling for all pressures).
Recently issued supplements to PD 8010 and IGE/TD/1 cover methods and criteria for pipeline
risk analysis in more detail than the main codes. A summary of certain points in these
supplements is given in Appendix VI. PD 8010 recommends that if individual risk contours have
been calculated then these should be used for routing purposes and that the distance to
occupied dwellings should not be less than the distance to a risk of 10cpm (chances per million,
or 1E-05 per year).
The original route gave a minimum separation distance of 70m between the pipeline and
occupied dwellings. The proposed route gives a minimum separation distance of 140m. The
LVI is 246m away from the nearest dwelling.
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3
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Pipeline QRA
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DNV ENERGY
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3.0 Methodology for the Quantified Risk Assessment
The QRA methodology followed the classical approach:
Define a representative set of scenarios that characterise the system being analysed
Determine the frequencies, consequences and impact of these scenarios
Combine these to give the cumulative risk from the scenarios
Compare the risk predictions with suitable risk criteria
A summary of the methodology is given below with details given in Appendices. Scenario
definition and frequency estimation are given in Appendix II and Appendix VII, consequence and
impact analyses are given in Appendix IV and risk criteria are given in Appendix VI.
3.1 Scenario Definition and Frequency Analysis
The releases from the pipeline and LVI were characterised by three discrete hole sizes, ranging
from 12mm diameter to two open ends of a ruptured pipeline, with an intermediate hole size
(31mm diameter). Two different sets of failure frequencies have been used. One analysis used
failure frequencies taken directly from published (generic) information in the EGIG database 6
th
report (2005) (EGIG analysis) detailed in Appendix II. A second analysis used frequencies
which are considered applicable to the Corrib pipeline given the measures incorporated in the
pipeline design and thereby makes the QRA more appropriate for the actual pipeline that is
being installed (Corrib analysis, detailed in Appendix VII). The analysis considered three
pipeline pressures 100bar, 144 bar (for the pipeline between the LVI and the terminal) and 345
bar (for the pipeline upstream of the LVI).
3.1.1 Underground Pipeline
The EGIG database comprises data from European gas pipeline experience since 1970 and the
pipeline failure frequencies are given in terms of the following failure modes:
Third party interference
Construction defect/material failure
Corrosion
Ground movement
Hot-tap made by error
Other and unknown
The EGIG analysis has used frequencies taken directly from the 6
th
report (2005). The Corrib
analysis incorporates the findings of a probabilistic methodology which has been used to
calculate a theoretical value for failure due to third party interference. This was done by Pipeline
Integrity Engineers Ltd (PIE) using damage data obtained from the UKOPA Pipeline Fault
Database together with fracture mechanics methodology. The report produced by PIE is
attached as Appendix III. In addition, SEPIL specified measures that had been/will be taken in
order to minimise pipeline failure. This includes an engineered design that will prevent failure
due to landslip. Details of these measures are given in Appendix VII.
3.1.2 Equipment Associated with the Landfall Valve Installation.
The LVI comprises equipment for isolation and overpressure protection: the high integrity
pressure protection system is designed to prevent the pressure in the pipeline downstream of
the LVI from exceeding 144bar. There is a finite probability that the valve will not provide this
protection, but this probability is considered to be negligible.
January 2009
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DNV ENERGY
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Frequencies for loss of containment from the equipment were derived from data from offshore
experience over the period 1992-1999 as detailed in Appendix II. Although the conditions
offshore are different from those onshore it has become normal practice over the last few years
to use offshore data for onshore equipment as the quality of the data is superior to the quality of
currently available failure data which are specific for onshore equipment (this is mainly as a
result of the regulatory regime introduced into the UK sector of the North Sea following the Piper
Alpha disaster in 1988 which provided greater rigour for monitoring and reporting leaks).
Although the failure frequencies for the equipment in the LVI are likely to be considerably lower
than those derived from the offshore experience, no numerical adjustments have been made.
3.1.3 Ignition Probability
The ignition probability for holes was taken directly from the EGIG database (6
th
report 2005).
The ignition probability for ruptures was calculated using a formula in IGEM/TD/2, which gave
higher ignition probabilities than the generic value in EGIG. All ignitions were considered to be
immediate or early; delayed ignition was specifically not analysed as this would give lesser
impacts than immediate ignition. Details are given in Appendix II.
3.2 Consequence and Impact Analysis
This part of the analysis involves the following;
Determination of the release rate from the specified holes in the system
Determination of the levels of thermal radiation that result from the flames following ignition
of the gas
Modelling of the impact or effects that the thermal radiation might have on people who may
be in the vicinity of the flames
The approach taken for these aspects is given in Appendix IV. Consequences have been
determined at the design pressure (144 bar), the normal operating pressure (100 bar) and the
maximum pressure (345 bar in the pipeline upstream of the LVI with the LVI in the closed
position). It is common to use computer software in this part of a QRA. Pipetech was used to
determine the release rates from the full bore ruptures and DNVs proprietary consequence
modelling software PHAST (v 6.5.3) was used for thermal radiation predictions. Pipetech is a
state of the art release rate program (see references in Appendix IV). PHAST is used by more
than 100 organisations worldwide including regulatory organisations (Health and Safety
Authority, HSA, and the U K Health and Safety Executive, UKHSE). The modelling of the
fireball following early ignition follows the approach used by the UKHSE.
3.3 Risk Analysis
This is the process that combines the calculations for frequencies, consequences and impact
and gives numerical values of risk. Again it is common for computer programs to be used for
this step and the BLAST computer program, internally developed by DNV, was used (which is
the same program that was used by DNV to calculate the risks from the terminal).
3.4 Meteorological Conditions
Jet flames are affected by the wind and for the analysis of jet flames following ruptures a
windspeed of 5m/s was used. It is common to use two wind/weather conditions (the JP Kenny
analysis and the analysis of the terminal used both 5m/s (85% of the time) and 2m/s (15% of the
time)), but for simplicity only one windspeed was used (the maximum hazard ranges for 2m/s
are less than for 5m/s). A local windrose was not used; consequences were assumed to be
January 2009
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distributed uniformly (again this is normal practice for pipeline analyses because of the changing
direction of the pipeline).
3.5 Vapour Cloud Explosions
Delayed ignition of a dispersing flammable cloud where all or part of the cloud covers an area of
confinement and/or congestion can lead to the generation of overpressure (pressure above
ambient) and blast effects due to acceleration of the flame front. It is normal for analyses of the
risks from natural gas pipelines to neglect this possibility (because of the buoyant nature of the
gas and the lack of such explosions occurring in incidents). This is consistent with the approach
taken by the UKHSE, and historical experience with releases from natural gas pipelines (see
Appendix V), and there are no areas of forest (which may cause congestion of a gas cloud)
along the pipeline route except near to the terminal, which is a considerable distance from
occupied dwellings.
4.0 Risk Predictions and Assessment
Risk predictions are presented as:
Risk transects at locations perpendicular to the pipeline and LVI
Individual risk at the nearest dwellings to the pipeline and LVI
Risk contours along the pipeline route
Societal risk for the section of pipeline with the highest population density
Individual risk is a measure of the frequency at which an individual at a specified distance from
the pipeline is expected to sustain a specified level of harm from the realisation of specific
hazards. Societal risk is a measure of the risk due to the frequency of accidents which may
cause varying numbers of casualties.
The presentation of individual risk in this section is in terms of the risk of fatality for a resident
who spends 93% of the time indoors and the balance outdoors and is assumed to be at the
same location for the whole year. People outdoors are assumed to seek shelter indoors (see
Appendix IV).
4.1 Risk Transects
The risk transects for the pipeline and the LVI are presented in Figure 4 and Figure 5
respectively. These transects have been determined using the frequencies for the Corrib
pipeline (Appendix VII) and the consequences as determined according to Appendix IV.
Risk transects for operating pressures of 100 and 144 bar assuming EGIG generic frequencies
are shown in Appendix IX. Also shown in Appendix IX is a risk transect for the LVI assuming
that the pipeline upstream of the valve is at 345 bar and the pipeline downstream is at 144 bar
(for a number of different time periods) and a risk transect for a person who spends more time
outdoors (eight hours per day) than the resident defined above.
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DNV ENERGY
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Figure 4 Risk Transects for the Pipeline
Risk Transects Corrib Pipeline IGE
1.00E-13
1.00E-12
1.00E-11
1.00E-10
1.00E-09
1.00E-08
-300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300
Distance m
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Resident 144bar
Resident 100bar
Ref:PipelinePredsIGE/Trans144EGIG-IGE
Figure 5 Risk Transects for the Landfall Valve Installation
Risk Transects Landfall Valve IGE
1.00E-10
1.00E-09
1.00E-08
1.00E-07
1.00E-06
1.00E-05
1.00E-04
-300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300
Distance m
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Resident 144 bar
Resident 100 bar
Ref:PipelinePredsIGE/Trans144EGIG-IGE
January 2009
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DNV ENERGY
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4.2 Individual Risk at the Nearest Dwellings
The predicted individual risks at the nearest dwelling to the pipeline and the LVI are shown in
Table 2. The individual risks are in terms a resident who spends the whole year at the location
and are in terms of the frequency of fatality per year.
Table 2 Individual Risk at the Nearest Dwelling to the Pipeline
Distance to nearest
dwelling (m)
Corrib Analysis
144 bar
Corrib Analysis
100 bar
Pipeline 140 5.0E-11 1.0E-12
Landfall Valve Installation 246 9.7E-08 N/A (1)
Ref:PipelinePredsIGE/Trans144EGIG-IGE
(1) For operation at 100 bar, the risk of fatality at 246m is predicted to be zero as the thermal
radiation level is too low to cause fatality.
4.3 Individual Risk Contours
The individual risks in contour format are presented in Figure 6.
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January 2009
Pipeline QRA
SEPIL
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DNV ENERGY
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4.4 Societal Risk
The societal risks for specified lengths of the pipeline are shown in Figure 7 and Figure 8 in FN
format. The criterion lines from the relevant codes (see Appendix VI) are also shown on the
graphs. The pipeline route and the location of the dwellings used for the FN calculation are
shown in Appendix VIII. The societal risks for the pipeline assuming generic frequencies are
shown in Appendix IX. There is no societal risk from the LVI.
Figure 7 Societal Risk (1km length)
FN Curve (PD 8010) IGE
1.00E-13
1.00E-12
1.00E-11
1.00E-10
1.00E-09
1.00E-08
1.00E-07
1.00E-06
1.00E-05
1.00E-04
1 10 100
Number of Casualties
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PD 8010 Criterion
Corrib 144 bar IGE
Corrib 100 bar IGE
PipelinepredsIGE/FN-IGE
Figure 8 Societal Risk (1.6km length)
FN Curve (IGE)
1.00E-13
1.00E-12
1.00E-11
1.00E-10
1.00E-09
1.00E-08
1.00E-07
1.00E-06
1.00E-05
1.00E-04
1 10 100
Number of Casualties
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Corrib 100 bar 1km IGE
Corrib 144 bar 1km IGE
PipelinepredsIGE/FN-IGE
January 2009
Pipeline QRA
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DNV ENERGY
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4.5 Assessment
The hazard ranges to the Building Burn Distance and the Escape Distance are presented in
Table 3 with a comparison to those predicted by Advantica. The minimum Building Burn
distances by Advantica are larger than those determined by DNV as Advantica always
considered a fireball, whereas DNV considered some ignitions gave only jet flames.
Table 3 Hazard Distances for Ruptures
Pressure
bar
Maximum
Escape
Distance
(2)
(m)
Minimum
Escape
Distance
(2)
(m)
Maximum
Building Burn
Distance
(3)
(m)
Minimum
Building Burn
Distance
(3)
(m)
Source
100 180 43 144 0
(1)
DNV
120 181 47 156 75 Advantica
144 223 58 171 11 DNV
345 315 112 217 111 Advantica
345 333 97 230 21 DNV
(1) This is a theoretical distance due to a vertical jet flame deflected by the wind so that the
hazard range is to one side of the pipeline.
(2) Escape distance is the distance to a location from which escape is possible within 30s
travelling at 2.5m/s without exceeding a dose of 1800 TDU.
(3) Building burn distance is the distance to the spontaneous ignition of wood based on the
fireball duration or 30s for the jet flame.
The risk transects determined in this analysis are compared with some previous risk transects
as shown in Figure 9. The analysis with the EGIG frequencies included is shown in Appendix
IX.
Figure 9 Comparison of Risk Transects
Risk Transects
1.00E-12
1.00E-11
1.00E-10
1.00E-09
1.00E-08
1.00E-07
1.00E-06
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Distance from pipeline m
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JP Kenny 120 bar
Advantica 144bar
DNV 100bar Corrib IGE
Advantica 120bar 1% fatality
DNV 144 bar Corrib IGE
PipelinepredsIGE/Trans100EGIG-IGE
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It can be seen that the predicted risks from the Corrib pipeline operating at 100bar do not
exceed 1E-08 per year; a very low value, and the predicted risks at the closest dwelling are
approximately 1E-12 per year. An examination of the societal risk predictions in Figure 7 and
Figure 8 indicates that the predicted societal risk is in the order of 1E-10 and 1E-11 per year,
several orders of magnitude below the criterion lines from the recognised pipeline codes
IGE/TD/1 and PD 8010 (which are in the order of 1E-04 and 1E-05 per year).
5.0 Conclusions
A QRA has been carried out on the onshore section of the proposed Corrib pipeline. The
consequence analysis has been carried out using recognised techniques and DNV allocated
release frequencies that are considered to be appropriate for the proposed pipeline. The
individual risk of fatality predicted for a house resident at the housing nearest to the pipeline,
assuming an operating pressure of 100bar, was approximately 1E-12 per year. For an
operating pressure of 144bar the predicted risk was 5E-11 per year. The societal risk for the
section of the pipeline with the highest risk had a maximum in the order of 4E-11 per year (100
bar) and 3E-10 per year (144 bar), more than five orders of magnitude lower than the criterion
line derived from experience with UK natural gas pipelines (which is in the order of 1E-4 and 1E-
5 per year).
6.0 References
AEA Technology. Independent Review of Onshore Pipeline Quantified Risk Assessment for the
Corrib Field Development. Report for the Petroleum Affairs Division. AEAT/LRSB/10793/001(R)
Draft. June 2005
Advantica. Independent Safety Review of the onshore section of the proposed Corrib gas
pipeline. R8391 Jan 2006.
Allseas Engineering BV. Corrib Field Development Project (Phase II) Onshore Pipeline
Quantified Risk Assessment. JP Kenny/Allseas.
BPA. Corrib Gas Field Development QRA Review. Petroleum Affairs Division Report ENM-
RPT-X-1589. Rev 0 2005.
Cassells Peter. Report and Recommendations from Mediation, (2006)
6
th
EGIG Report 1970-2004. Gas Pipeline Incidents. European Gas Pipeline Incident Data
Group. EGIG 05.R.0002.
IGE/TD/1 Edition 4. Steel Pipelines for High Pressure Gas Transmission. Institute of Gas
Engineers.
IGEM/TD/2. Application of pipeline risk assessment to proposed developments in the vicinity of
high pressure Natural Gas pipelines.
IS 328:2003. Code of Practice for Gas Transmission Pipelines and Pipeline Installations
(Edition 3.1). National Standards Authority of Ireland.
January 2009
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IS EN 14161. Petroleum and natural gas industries Pipeline transportation systems. (ISO
13623:2000).
PD 8010-1:2004. Code of Practice for pipelines Part 1: Steel pipelines on Land.
PD 8010-3:2009. Code of Practice for pipelines Part 3: Guide to the application of pipeline
risk assessment to proposed developments in the vicinity of major accident hazard pipelines
containing flammables Supplement to PD 8010-1:2004.
SEPIL, Onshore Basis of Design, Doc No 05-2377-01-P-3-800-01 Rev 7.
SEPIL, Offshore Basis of Design, Doc No 05-2102-01-P-3-100 Rev 4.
January 2009
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Appendix I Summary of the Main Points from Previous Studies (Relevant to the
QRA Methodology).
1.0 J P Kenny/Allseas Engineering Report April 2005 (JPK)
This is the initial report which predicted the risk to members of the public from the onshore
section of the proposed gas pipeline. The consequence analysis was carried out using the Shell
software FRED v 4. Thermal radiation effects from jet fires and flash fires were determined;
explosions and toxic gas were not considered to be credible scenarios so were not included in
the quantified analysis. The extent of the hazards from releases from the pipeline was
determined for the following end points; 6kW/m
2
(thermal radiation from immediate ignition) and
the lower flammable limit (LFL) (from delayed ignition events).
The pipeline failure frequencies were determined using the UK Onshore Pipelines Operators
Association (UKOPA) data and the PARLOC 1996 data (for internal corrosion and material
defects). A probabilistic model was used to determine the failure frequency due to external
interference. The frequencies used are shown in Table 4.
Table 4 Pipeline Failure Frequencies J P Kenny
Failure Mode Leak Frequency
(per km year)
Rupture Frequency
(per km year)
Total Release
Frequency
(per km year)
Third Party
Interference
4.74E-07 1.13E-07 5.88E-07
Ground Movement 8.64E-06 9.6E-07 9.6E-06
Inherent defects and
Construction defects
4.62E-05 0 4.62E-05
Total 5.53E-05 1.07E-06 5.64E-05
(Table 6.8 JPK report)
Leaks were represented by a 25mm diameter hole, ruptures were modelled as a hole diameter
equivalent to the pipeline internal diameter, addressing the release rate from both sides of the
ruptured pipeline. For the rupture case, the release rate was taken as the average of the
predicted rate over the first minute. Calculations were carried out for the normal operating
pressure of 120barg and the design pressure of 345barg. Three different orientations were
used for leaks; vertical and horizontal (jets) and buried (momentum was dissipated) as shown in
Table 5. Ruptures were assumed to give a horizontal jet fire along the pipeline.
Table 5 Release Orientations
Release Orientation JPK %
Vertical 25
Horizontal 25
Buried (all momentum dissipated) 50
Extracted from Section D 4.3 Advantica
The ignition probability was based on data from the European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group
(EGIG) 2001 as shown in Table 6. Consideration was given to distinguishing between early
and late ignition. As no historical data were found to support partitioning between early and
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late ignition, an equal split was assumed. However as it was found that the consequences of
flash fires (late ignition) were less severe than the consequences of the jet fire that followed the
flash fire, the consequences of early and late ignition were the same..
Table 6 Ignition Probabilities
Release Size Ignition Probability
Rupture (>16) 0.25
Pinhole /crack (<2cm) 0.032
(Table 5.2 JPK report)
Risks were presented in the form of transects. The risk at the nearest building (70m from the
pipeline) for a person outdoors 100% of the time was also presented (1E-07 per year for
120barg and 4E-07 per year for 345barg).
1.1 BPA, May 2005.
BPA was commissioned by the Department of Communications, Marine and Natural Resources
(Petroleum Affairs Division) to review the JPK QRA. BPA found that the report generally
followed industry norms for pipeline QRAs, but observed that:
The failure frequencies were limited to UKOPA data, and additional data from international
sources (such as the US Department of Transport) should be used to more accurately model
the failure frequency. BPA considered that a more conservative failure rate for a 20 pipeline
would be in the region of 1.53E-04 per km per year rather than 5.53E-05 per km per year
Pipeline leak models for 5mm and 100mm should be included (although it was stated that
the 25mm case would represent the predominant leak case in the majority of instances)
1.2 AEA Technology, June 2005
AEA Technology was commissioned by the Petroleum Affairs Division to carry out an
independent review of the JPK QRA. AEA found that:
The QRA followed the standard approach
The basis for the selection and derivation of failure frequencies would have benefited from
further discussion, justification and comparison with alternative data
A sensitivity analysis should have been included
Further details about the methods used for non uniform wind effects, impact probabilities of
jets and plumes, and determination of risk from the landfall valve would have been beneficial
1.3 Advantica, January 2006.
Advantica was commissioned by the Technical Advisory Group (TAG) established by the
Minister for Communications, Marine and Natural Resources to undertake an independent
safety review of the onshore pipeline. This was a considerably more detailed review than that
carried out by BPA or AEA Technology and Advantica used its own models for consequence
and frequency analysis to give risk predictions. Main comments on the QRA methodology by
Advantica were:
The use of an averaged rate of release (from a rupture) is weak. Immediate ignition of such
a release will give a fireball. The thermal radiation from this type of model may be greater or
less than a jet model, but should be investigated
The buried release would be better treated as an angled release with a lower velocity than a
free jet
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The initial release direction of a rupture is normally vertically upwards rather than horizontally
along the line of the pipeline (such directionality is rare) and there is an initial highly transient
fireball phase
The impact should be modelled using a thermal dose with escape rather than a fixed thermal
flux
Calculated distances to the distance beyond which people would be expected to escape to
safety (the escape distance) and the distance up to which houses would be predicted to
catch fire (the building burning distance) were predicted (see Table 7 )
Table 7 Hazard Distances for Pipeline Pressure of 144bara (Advantica)
Release Type Escape Distance (m) Building Burning Distance (m)
Vertical free jet from puncture 2.3-3.4 7.8-18.6
Impacted Puncture 0-17.2 17.7-36.5
Angled free jet puncture 0-39.2 0-40.2
Rupture 57-203 81-167
Extracted from Tables D5- D8.
The distribution of release orientation used for leaks was as given in Table 8
The release orientation for ruptures was vertical
Table 8 Release Orientation for leaks (Advantica)
Release Orientation Advantica %
Vertical free jet 50
Vertical impacted jet 25
Free jet, perpendicular to the pipeline,
angled at 70 degrees from the vertical
12.5 on either side
Extracted from Section D 4.3
The major contribution to pipeline failure was third party interference, and the UKOPA
mechanical damage model was used to determine the frequencies (see Table 9)
Table 9 Pipeline Failure Frequencies (Advantica)
Pressure
(bara)
0-25mm 25-75mm 75-150mm Rupture Total
120 1.37E-07 1.43E-08 0 1.64E-08 1.68E-07
144 1.62E-07 1.60E-08 0 3.74E-08 2.15E-07
240 2.76E-07 0 0 2.44E-07 5.20E-07
345 3.75E-07 0 0 1.31E-06 1.69E-06
Table D3.
Ignition probability was determined using worldwide incident data and accounted for the
pipeline pressure and the release size (see Table 10)
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Table 10 Ignition Probabilities (Advantica)
Pressure (bara) 25mm Rupture
120 0.073 0.54
345 0.074 0.8
Table D4
Individual risk transects were calculated and compared with the JPK predictions (see Figure
10 and Figure 11). The Advantica transects were produced using Advantica consequence
models and JPK failure frequencies and ignition probabilities
Figure 10 Individual Risk transects (120bara) (Advantica and JPK)
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Figure 11 Individual Risk transects (345bara) (Advantica and JPK)
Advantica also calculated transects using a criterion of 1800 TDU (thermal dose units) using
Advantica failure frequencies and ignition probabilities (see Figure 12).
Figure 12 Individual Risk transects at different Operating Pressures (Advantica)
Advantica considered it appropriate to determine societal risk in order for a full
understanding of the risks. The societal risk associated with 1.6km of the pipeline with
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the highest societal risk using Advantica methodology (presumably using 1800TDU and
Advantica determined failure frequencies and ignition probabilities) is shown in Figure 13
Figure 13 Societal Risk (Advantica)
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Appendix II Failure Frequencies
1.0 Underground pipeline EGIG Data.
The EGIG data are characterised by the following failure modes:
Third party interference
Construction defect/material failure
Corrosion
Ground movement
Hot-tap made by error
Other and unknown
And the following hole sizes:
Pinhole/crack: the diameter of the hole is smaller than or equal to 20mm
Hole: the diameter of the hole is larger than 20mm and smaller than or equal to the diameter
of the pipe
Rupture: the diameter of the hole is larger than the diameter of the pipe
The data have been interpreted as shown in Table 11 for a 20 diameter pipeline which has a
thickness of 27mm.
Table 11 Failure Frequencies EGIG Data
Failure
Mode
Base
Frequency
(per km per
year)
Source Probability of
rupture/hole/
pinhole
Frequency
rupture
(per km per
year)
Frequency
hole
(per km
per year)
Frequency
pinhole
(per km
per year)
Third party
interference
Negligible EGIG Figure 21
indicates no
failures for
pipelines with a
thickness above
15mm
0 0 0
Construction
defect/mater
ial failure
1E-05 EGIG Figure 25 for
pipelines
constructed after
1984
0/0.5/0.5 0 5E-06 5E-06
Corrosion 1E-05 EGIG Figure 22 for
pipelines
constructed after
1994
0/0/1 0 0 1E-05
Ground
movement
2.3E-05 EGIG Figure 27 for
pipelines 20
diameter
0.68/0.16/0.16 1.56E-05 3.68E-06 3.68E-06
Hot-tap
made by
error
7E-06 EGIG Figure 26 for
pipelines 20
diameter
0/0/1 0 0 7E-06
Other and
unknown
2.5E-05 EGIG Figure 18 0/0.15/0.85 0 3.7E-06 2.13E-05
Total 7.50E-05 1.56E-05 1.24E-05 4.69E-05
These may be compared with frequencies in PD 8010-4, see Table 12.
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Table 12 Failure Frequencies PD 8010-3
Failure
Mode
Base
Frequency
(per km
per year)
Source Probability of
rupture/hole/pi
nhole
Frequency
rupture
(per km per
year)
Frequency
hole
(per km
per year)
Frequency
pinhole
(per km per
year)
Third party
interference
Negligible PD 8010-3 Table
B3 indicates no
failures for
pipelines with a
thickness above
15mm
0 0 0
Construction
defect/mater
ial failure
4.8E-06 PD 8010-3 Table
B6 for wall
thickness above
15mm (reduced by
a factor of 5 for
post 1980)
0/0.5/0.5 0 2.4E-06 (1) 2.4E-06 (1)
External
Corrosion
Negligible PD 8010-3 Table
B5 indicates no
failures for
pipelines with a
thickness above
15mm
0 0 0
Internal
Corrosion
3E-06 PD 8010-3 Table
B1. Based on UK
pipeline data since
1962
0/0/1 0 0 3E-06
Ground
movement
2.1E-07 PD 8010-3 Section
B8, gives this as
the background
rupture rate for all
UK major accident
hazard pipelines
1/0/0 2.1E-07 0 (2) 0 (2)
Other and
unknown
7.3E-05 PD 8010-3 Table
B1. Based on UK
pipeline data since
1962
0.027/0.26/0.71 1.97E-06 1.9E-05 5.2E-05
Total 8.10E-05 2.18E-06 2.14E-05 5.74E-05
(1) No partitioning given but no ruptures.
(2) No data given for holes or pinholes.
Data are not available for pipelines that are laid in the landfall area (shallow water), so although
the failure mechanisms are different from buried onshore pipelines, it is DNV practice to use the
same frequencies.
1.1 Release Orientation
As no data are given in EGIG (or other databases), the orientations for leaks were selected
based on the JPK and Advantica analyses, in that:
Vertical jets were considered as both free (no loss of momentum) and impacted (some loss
of momentum), which is similar to Advantica
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Horizontal jets were considered as free (no loss of momentum), which is similar to JPK, and
angled, which is similar to Advantica
The probability in each direction was also derived by considering both the JPK and Advantica
approaches, and is given in Table 13.
Table 13 Release Orientation (Holes)
Release
Orientation
JPK
% Release Orientation
Advantica
% Release Orientation
DNV
%
Vertical (t) 25 Vertical free jet (t) 50 Vertical free jet (t) 50
Horizontal (s) 25 Vertical impacted jet
(b)
25 Vertical impacted jet
(b)
25
Buried (all
momentum
dissipated) (b)
50 Free jet,
perpendicular to the
pipeline, angled at 70
degrees from the
vertical (t)
12.5 on
either
side
Free jet,
perpendicular to the
pipeline, angled at 45
degrees from the
vertical (t)
6.25 on either
side
Horizontal (s) 6.25 on either
side
(t), (s) and (b) represent top, side and bottom, and indicate the location of the hole.
Ruptures were characterised by different consequences (see Appendix IV)
1.2 Ignition Probability
Ignition probabilities are given in EGIG according to the leak type as shown in Table 14.
Table 14 Ignition probabilities (EGIG)
Size of Leak Ignition Probability
Pinhole 0.03
Hole 0.02
Rupture (< = 16) 0.09
Rupture (>16) 0.3
The most recent edition of IGEM/TD/2 gives a formula for the calculation of ignition probability of
ruptures:
Ignition Probability = 0.0555 + 9.0137*pD
2
for pD
2
< 0.57
= 0.81 for pD
2
> 0.57
This gives the values in Table 15.
Table 15 Ignition probabilities - Ruptures (IGEM)
Pressure (bar) Ignition Probability
100 0.41
144 0.56
345 0.81
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The values used have been taken from the Table 14 for holes and Table 15 for ruptures.
Ignition probabilities for the underwater sections were reduced by an order of magnitude.
There is no distinction in the data for early ignition as opposed to late ignition. DNV
consequence modelling (see Appendix IV) indicated that dispersion from horizontal free jets
(holes) to the lower flammable limit, LFL (which would represent the hazard range for delayed
ignition) was a similar distance to the hazard range for horizontal jet fires (immediate ignition).
Consequently DNV concluded that it was not necessary to distinguish between early and late
ignition for releases from holes. Releases from ruptures tend to be vertically upwards, and
ignition some time after release would give a jet flame with smaller hazard ranges than the
immediate ignition events. Hence for the analysis all ignitions were assumed to be early: late
ignitions were not considered as these would give smaller hazards. PD 8010 further states that
the usual assumption for natural gas releases is that flash fires (i.e. delayed ignition) do not
occur as heavier than air plumes are not normally formed; the probability of flash fires is
considered to be low.
1.3 Equipment associated with the Landfall Valve Installation
The failure frequencies have been taken from data compiled and published by the UK Health
and Safety Executive generally referred to as OIR 12. The database covering the years 1992 to
1999 inclusive (OTO report) has been analysed on behalf of the UK Offshore Operators
Association (UKOOA) by AEA Technology. The source data are unsuitable for direct use in
QRAs, so further analysis is necessary to derive appropriate values of generic leak frequency /
release size relationships for use in QRAs. This QRA has used an analysis carried out by BP in
2002 which has been used in many QRAs carried out by DNV.
The relevant data are shown in Table 16.
Table 16 Equipment Failure Frequencies (per year)
Equipment 12mm 25mm 100mm Full Bore Number in
LVI
Block valve <3 3.7E-05 4.1E-06 0 4.1E-06 5
Block valve >3 2.3E-05 3.8E-06 0 3.8E-06 6
Control valve >3 1.3E-04 3.2E-05 0 0 0
Flange <3 1.2E-05 1.1E-06 0 0 0
Flange >3 1.7E-05 2.1E-06 0 1.4E-06 6
Instrument 2E-04 0 0 2.6E-06 5
It was also assumed that there would be an additional 40m of underground pipeline in the
landfall valve compound.
Consideration was given to the potential for local factors to affect the failure frequencies.
Factors such as weather, geotechnical activity and impact from vehicles are considered to be
negligible as the pipework is completely buried in undisturbed rocky surroundings and the LVI is
situated within a lowered dished area. The likelihood of impact from vehicles on the LVI has
been minimised by the provision of crash barriers around the compound. Consequently no
modifications to the base failure frequencies were considered appropriate.
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1.4 Specific Frequencies for the Corrib pipeline analysis
Specific frequencies were derived for the pipeline based on a probabilistic analysis of third party
interference (see Appendix III) and specific measures taken by SEPIL (see Appendix VII).
1.5 References
European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group, (EGIG) 6
th
Report (1970-2004). December 2005.
Offshore Technology Report OTO 1999 079, 'Offshore Hydrocarbon Releases Statistics, 1999,
HSE, January 2000.
An analysis of the OIR12 data and its use in QRA, a report produced for UKOOA, February
2001, AEAT/NOIL/27564001/002(R) issue 1.
PD 8010-3:2007. Code of Practice for pipelines Part 3: Guide to the application of pipeline
risk assessment to proposed developments in the vicinity of major hazard pipelines containing
flammables Supplement to PD 8010-1:2004.
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Appendix III Frequency Determination for Third Party Interference
Pipeline Integrity Engineers Ltd (PIE) was commissioned to carry out this work. PIE
developed a prediction methodology for the United Kingdom Pipeline Operators Association
based on the original dent-gouge failure model developed and published by British Gas.
The PIE report is attached.
It should be noted that predictions in the report use extrapolations of data. The report
contains a table (Table 1) which demonstrates reasonable agreement between the
predictions from the PIE model and the FFREQ model, both of which use the dent/gouge
failure model originally published by British Gas. The predictions in the table cover grades
X46 to X60. The data are valid up to X65 and the pipeline is to be constructed from X70
which is a higher grade material. It is considered that the extrapolation is likely to be
conservative. With regard to the pipeline thickness, experience indicates that pipelines that
are greater than 15mm thick do not have any history of failure (Table B3 PD 8010-3:2008)
due to external interference. The proposed pipeline is 27.1 mm thick and is therefore far
thicker than any failure experience and so extrapolation is again considered to be the most
appropriate way to derive a failure frequency. It should be noted that the values for the
failure frequencies which are at the extreme lower end of the frequency range are based on
sparse data and are very low numbers; extrapolations give numbers which are slightly lower.
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PIE/07/R0176
ISSUE 1.0 February 2008
FAILURE FREQUENCY
PREDICTIONS DUE TO 3
RD
PARTY INTERFERENCE FOR
THE CORRIB PIPELINE
Page 1 of 34
FAILURE FREQUENCY PREDICTIONS
DUE TO 3
rd
PARTY INTERFERENCE FOR
CORRIB PIPELINE
Authors: J Haswell & C Lyons
CLIENT DNV
Contract Number -
Client Document
Number
-
Pipeline Integrity Engineers Ltd
262A Chillingham Road
Heaton
Newcastle Upon Tyne
NE6 5LQ
www.pieuk.co.uk
PIE/07/R0176
Issue: v1.0
February 2008
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PIE/07/R0176
ISSUE 1.0 February 2008
FAILURE FREQUENCY
PREDICTIONS DUE TO 3
RD
PARTY INTERFERENCE FOR
THE CORRIB PIPELINE
Page 2 of 34
Amendment and Approval Record
1.0
Final
including
Client
Comments
12/02/08
J V
Haswell
RA
McConnell
G Senior
0.1
Draft for
Client
Comment
08.10.07
J V
Haswell
RA
McConnell
G Senior
J V
Haswell
0
Draft Issue
02/10/07
C Lyons
Name Sign Name Sign Name Sign
Issue Change
Author Reviewer Approver
Distribution List: February 08
Internal External
Authors P Crossthwaite DNV
G Senior
W P Jones
PIE Central File
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PIE/07/R0176
ISSUE 1.0 February 2008
FAILURE FREQUENCY
PREDICTIONS DUE TO 3
RD
PARTY INTERFERENCE FOR
THE CORRIB PIPELINE
Page 3 of 34
Contents; ( refer to PIE page numbering)
Executive Summary 4
Introduction 6
Scope 6
Report Structure 6
Glossary 7
Methodology for prediction of failure of pipelines due to 3rd party interference 7
Overview 7
Failure Models for Damaged Pipelines 8
Probability of Failure 8
Failure Frequency 9
Development of the PIE Model for the prediction of failure frequencies due to
3rd party interference 9
Background 9
The PIE Model 10
Comparison of the PIE model and FFREQ 12
Prediction of pipeline failure frequencies UKOPA recommendations 14
Prediction of Failure Frequencies due to 3rd party interference for the Corrib
Pipeline 14
Pipeline Parameters 14
Probability of failure and failure frequency predictions 14
Discussion 15
Factors affecting the failure of gas pipelines 15
Comparison of current with previous predictions 17
Sensitivity studies 19
Application of the PIE model to the Corrib Pipeline. 22
Conclusions 22
References 23
Appendix 1: Glossary 24
Appendix 2: Pipeline Failure Model and Methodology for Prediction of
Probability of Failure due to 3rd Party Interference 25
Appendix 3: Flow Diagram for Failure Frequency Prediction
Methodology using PIE Model 32
Appendix 4: Summary of 3rd Party Interference Failure Frequency
Models Applied to Corrib Pipeline 34
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PIE/07/R0176
ISSUE 1.0 February 2008
FAILURE FREQUENCY
PREDICTIONS DUE TO 3
RD
PARTY INTERFERENCE FOR
THE CORRIB PIPELINE
Page 4 of 34
CONFIDENTIAL
Executive Summary
In assessing the risks posed by hazardous pipelines, the damage mechanism which may
result in failure which is most relevant is that due to 3
rd
party interference. A key objective of
UKOPA (United Kingdom Pipeline Operators Association) is the development and
agreement with all stakeholders of an accepted and consistent approach to pipeline risk
assessment. To this end, UKOPA have drafted risk assessment code supplements to the UK
pipeline codes IGE/TD/1 Edition 4 and PD 8010 Part 1. These code supplements, which
have now been published, include guidance on the prediction of failure frequencies due to
3
rd
party interference, which is of particular importance in assessing the residual risk levels
of pipelines. To develop this guidance, UKOPA required a methodology for the prediction of
pipeline failure frequencies due to dent and gouge damage.
A prediction methodology was developed for UKOPA by Pipeline Integrity Engineers Ltd
(PIE). The methodology is a reconstruction of the dent-gouge failure model developed and
prediction methodology using damage probability distributions for the prediction of pipeline
leak and rupture failure frequencies, which was originally developed and published by British
Gas. The methodology developed by PIE uses damage probability distributions constructed
using the current UKOPA fault data.
The reconstructed model, entitled the PIE model in this report, has been used to carry out
investigative studies for UKOPA Predictions obtained using this model compare well with
predictions from the gas industry failure frequency prediction methodology, FFREQ, and
operational failure data from the UKOPA fault database. The results have been reviewed in
detail by UKOPA, and the model is accepted by UKOPA as a method for the predicting the
leak and rupture frequency of pipelines due to 3
rd
party interference for use in quantified risk
assessments carried out in accordance with the UK pipeline codes PD 8010 Part 1 and
IGE/TD/1 Edition 4. The PIE model has been used to predict failure frequencies for the
Corrib pipeline at the request of DNV. The failure model and the predictive methodology are
described, and the results obtained for the Corrib pipeline are presented in this report.
Conclusions
A methodology for the prediction of pipeline failure frequencies due to 3
rd
party interference
developed by, and based on work originally carried out for and published by British Gas has
been used to predict failure frequencies for the Corrib pipeline.
The predicted failure frequencies for the specified operating pressures are:-
Operating Pressure bar Predictions
345 144 100 55
Leak 5.83E-05 4.53E-06 2.57E-06 1.83E-06
Rupture 1.08E-04 6.86E-07 6.30E-08 0.00E+00
Probability of
Failure
Total 1.66E-04 5.22E-06 2.64E-06 1.83E-06
Leak 4.95E-08 3.85E-09 2.19E-09 1.55E-09
Rupture 9.15E-08 5.82E-10 5.35E-11 0.00E+00
Failure
Frequency
Km.yrs Total 1.41E-07 4.43E-09 2.24E-09 1.55E-09
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PIE/07/R0176
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FAILURE FREQUENCY
PREDICTIONS DUE TO 3
RD
PARTY INTERFERENCE FOR
THE CORRIB PIPELINE
Page 5 of 34
CONFIDENTIAL
Comparison with other published failure frequency predictions and the results of sensitivity
studies have confirmed that it is reasonable to apply the prediction methodology to the
Corrib pipeline.
Application of the PIE model in this study indicates that the rupture frequency of the Corrib
pipeline is approximately 200 times lower than that of an equivalent pipeline of standard wall
thickness, typical of those in the UK pipeline population.
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ISSUE 1.0 February 2008
FAILURE FREQUENCY
PREDICTIONS DUE TO 3
RD
PARTY INTERFERENCE FOR
THE CORRIB PIPELINE
Page 6 of 34
CONFIDENTIAL
Introduction
In assessing the risks posed by hazardous pipelines, the damage mechanism which may
result in failure which is most relevant is that due to 3
rd
party interference. A key objective of
UKOPA (United Kingdom Pipeline Operators Association) is the development and
agreement with all stakeholders of an accepted and consistent approach to pipeline risk
assessment. To this end, UKOPA have drafted risk assessment code supplements to the UK
pipeline codes IGE/TD/1 Ed 4 and PD 8010 Part 1. These code supplements, which have
now been published, include guidance on the prediction of failure frequencies due to 3
rd
party interference, which is of particular importance in assessing the residual risk levels of
pipelines. To develop this guidance, UKOPA required a methodology for the prediction of
pipeline failure frequencies due to dent and gouge damage.
A prediction methodology was developed for UKOPA by Pipeline Integrity Engineers Ltd
(PIE). Studies carried out for UKOPA included assessment of pipeline failure models
[1,2,3,4], reconstruction of the methodology for the prediction of pipeline leak and rupture
failure frequencies originally developed and published by British Gas [1,5] and application of
damage probability distributions developed using the current UKOPA fault data [6].The
methodology is a reconstruction of the dent-gouge failure model and prediction methodology
using damage probability distributions for the prediction of pipeline leak and rupture failure
frequencies, which was originally developed and published by British Gas. The methodology
developed by PIE uses damage probability distributions constructed using the current
UKOPA fault data [6].
The reconstructed model, entitled the PIE model in this report, has been used to carry out
investigative studies for UKOPA, and is an accepted method for the predicting the leak and
rupture frequency of pipelines due to 3
rd
party interference for use in quantified risk
assessments carried out in accordance with the UK pipeline codes PD 8010 Part 1 [7] and
IGE/TD/1 Edition 4 [8]. Predictions obtained using this model compare well with predictions
from the gas industry failure frequency prediction methodology FFREQ [9] and operational
failure data from the UKOPA fault database. The PIE model has been used to predict failure
frequencies for the Corrib pipeline on behalf of DNV. The failure model and the predictive
methodology are described, and the results obtained for the Corrib pipeline are presented in
this report.
Scope
This report describes the fracture mechanics model used to predict the failure of pipelines
containing damage, the methodology used to predict failure frequency using damage
probability distributions based on fault data from the current UKOPA Pipeline Fault
Database, and presents failure frequency predictions obtained using the model and
methodology for the Corrib pipeline.
Report Structure
The report is structured as follows:
Section 2: Provides a general overview of the methodology for predicting the probability
and frequency of failure of a pipeline subject to 3
rd
party interference.
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Section 3: Describes the PIE model for the prediction of failure frequencies due to 3
rd
party interference.
Section 4: Presents failure frequency predictions for the Corrib pipeline.
Section 5: Discussion of results.
Section 6: Presents the conclusions drawn.
Appendix 1 Provides a glossary of terms.
Appendix 2 Includes full details of the PIE dent-gouge failure model.
Appendix 3 Includes a flow diagram for the PIE predictive procedure.
Appendix 4 Gives a summary of 3
rd
party failure frequency models applied to the Corrib
pipeline.
Glossary
The report refers to a number of organisations and models by acronyms; these are defined
and explained in Appendix 1.
Methodology for prediction of failure of pipelines due to 3
rd
party interference
Overview
Pipeline damage due to 3
rd
party interference occurs in the form of gouges, dents or
combinations of these. This type of damage is random in nature, and as operational failure
data are sparse, recognised engineering practice requires that a predictive model is used to
calculate leak and rupture failure frequencies for specific pipelines. The approach taken to
develop a methodology for the prediction of the probability and frequency of pipeline failure
due to 3
rd
party interference involves three key requirements:
i) Modelling of the failure state of a specific pipeline subject to dent-gouge damage,
using a fracture mechanics failure model (or limit state). Such models are used to
calculate whether a given combination of pipeline conditions together with specific
dent and gouge damage exceed the failure condition (see Section 2.2).
ii) Prediction of the likelihood of occurrence of the dent-gouge damage which results in
failure for specified pipeline conditions. The likelihood of occurrence of specific dent-
gouge damage is obtained from the statistical distributions of measured gouge
length, gouge depth and dent depth damage in operational pipelines (see Section
2.3).
iii) Modelling of the incidence rate of 3
rd
party damage. The rate at which 3
rd
party
damage occurs is obtained from the number of damage incidents recorded over the
operational exposure of a pipeline population (see Section 2.4).
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Failure Models for Damaged Pipelines
The original work to develop a failure model for damaged pipelines was carried out for British
Gas at the Engineering Research Station, Newcastle, UK. The model is a general, two
parameter fracture mechanics model, which assumes steel structures containing defects can
fail due to a combination of plastic collapse and brittle fracture. The model, which is used to
calculate the failure conditions of a pipeline containing specified dent and gouge damage
and is referred to as the original dent-gouge model in this report, is semi-empirical, in that
the basic formulation is theoretical, but the actual formulation is fitted in accordance with
empirical failure data.
The empirical data comprises burst test results for pipe rings and vessels containing gouge
and dent damage. This recorded failure data was used to calibrate the model. As the model
is semi-empirical, its application is constrained by the limits of the data used in its calibration.
Additionally, the model is intrinsically conservative, in that it is 2dimensional, and
represents the through-wall failure of an infinitely long part wall defect. This model and its
application have been critically reviewed by experts and are well understood [1,2]. The
model is well documented and published, and is relatively straightforward to reconstruct.
The original dent-gouge model was updated by Advantica for UKOPA. The updated model,
referred to as the UKOPA mechanical damage limit state model in this report, includes
incorporation of a number of additional parameters (eg. micro-crack, plasticity and residual
stress due to the dent etc.), and a revision of the statistical calibration to the empirical data
used to develop the original dent-gouge model to take account of the additional parameters.
This model represents an update to the original dent-gouge model, but is essentially a
similar, semi-empirical model.
Failure calculations carried out using the fracture mechanics models described above may
be performed as simple, deterministic calculations, in which single mean, upper or lower
bound parameter values are assumed, or as a sophisticated structural reliability analysis,
which takes account of the probabilistic variation of all parameters.
Probability of Failure
In order to determine the probability of failure due to 3
rd
party interference, the likelihood of
dent and gouge damage which may occur and the probability that this will cause failure of
the pipe is required.
In the original British Gas (dent-gouge) methodology, the likelihood of damage is modelled
as damage size probability distributions. This approach assumes that damage of a given
size can occur in any pipeline, ie the damage size is not related to the resistance of the pipe
in which it occurs. This is conservative for pipes with a high resistance to damage (ie large
diameter, thick wall).
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One alternative and potentially more realistic approach is to convert the damage data into a
force probability distribution, ie the force required to produce specific dent and gouge
damage is calculated from the pipe parameters and recorded damage data. The force
probability distribution is then applied in the failure calculation, so the dent and gouge
damage caused to a pipe of specified geometry and material is predicted. This approach
takes account of the pipe resistance, and is therefore less conservative for high resistance
pipes, such as the Corrib pipeline.
A further approach would be to model the force applied by specific excavation machines,
and calculate the dent and gouge damage which this causes. Unfortunately, however, there
is no published data available in UK relating machine size/type to applied force to support
such an approach.
With respect to the Corrib pipeline, application of the original British Gas methodology using
existing dent and gouge damage data is conservative, as in applying the damage to the
pipe, this model does not take account of the increased resistance of the thick wall of this
pipeline. Less conservative predictions would be obtained if the damage size distribution
was represented by a force distribution, but this has not been done in this analysis.
Failure Frequency
In order to calculate the failure frequency, the probability of failure is multiplied by the
incident rate for 3
rd
party interference for a given population of pipelines:-
Failure Frequency = Probability of Failure x number of incidents of 3
rd
party interference per
km yr
The incident rate applied is derived from the UKOPA Pipeline Damage Database (i.e.8.49E-
04 per year, see Appendices 2 and 3).
Development of the PIE Model for the prediction of failure frequencies due to 3
rd
party interference
Background
In order to derive realistic failure frequencies for UK major accident hazard pipelines due to
3
rd
party interference, UKOPA has initiated work to assess available failure models, and the
predicted failure frequencies obtained using these models. As stated in 2.2 above, Advantica
updated the original British Gas dent-gouge failure model to the UKOPA limit state model. A
comparison was carried out of predicted pipeline failure frequencies provided by Transco
(now National Grid) using (1) the original dent-gouge model implemented in the failure
frequency prediction software FFREQ, (2) the UKOPA limit state model incorporated in
Advanticas pipeline structural reliability analysis software, and (3) the PIPIN software
developed and used by the UKHSE. It was observed that the predictions obtained by
Advantica using the updated failure model and structural reliability analysis were up to an
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order of magnitude higher than the predictions obtained by Transco using FFREQ and
UKHSE using PIPIN.
In order to investigate this difference, PIE undertook a series of studies looking into
predictions obtained using different models. As part of this work, the original failure
frequency prediction methodology published by British Gas and later incorporated into the
gas industry risk assessment software PIPESAFE [7] as FFREQ was reconstructed. The
reconstructed methodology, referred to as the PIE Model in this report, uses 3
rd
party
damage (gouge depth, gouge length and dent depth) data obtained from the UKOPA
Pipeline Fault Database, filtered and interpreted in the same way as in the original British
Gas work.
The PIE Model
The PIE model uses the original dent-gouge failure model to predict failure caused by dent
and gouge damage. The probabilities of the size of damage which may occur, and the
incidence or hit rate of 3
rd
party damage, are obtained from the UKOPA Pipeline Fault
Database. The model is illustrated in Figure 1.
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Details of the PIE model, the procedure for predicting the probability of failure and the dent
and gouge damage data used to predict pipeline failure frequency are given in Appendices 2
and 3.
Comparison of the PIE model and FFREQ
As part of the work undertaken for UKOPA, a detailed comparison of predictions obtained
using the PIE model and FFREQ for a number of pipeline cases was carried out. As these
models are similar, in that they both use the original dent-gouge failure model,
demonstration of reasonable agreement was required. A summary of the results is given in
Table 1 and Figures 2 and 3.
PIE failure frequency
km.yrs
FFREQ Failure Frequency
km.yrs
P
bar
Dia
mm
Wt
mm
Grade
Rupture Total Rupture Total
69 273 6.4 X46 3.13E-05 6.33E-05 3.19E-05 6.45E-05
70 324 7.1 X46 2.51E-05 5.06E-05 2.79E-05 5.80E-05
70 508 11.1 X46 4.32E-06 1.05E-05 3.41E-06 1.10E-05
75 610 9.5 X52 1.80E-05 3.22E-05 1.14E-05 3.11E-05
75 762 11.9 X52 7.73E-06 1.55E-05 3.37E-06 1.07E-05
70 914 12.7 X60 4.22E-06 1.28E-05 2.81E-06 1.00E-05
85 914 19.1 X60 1.97E-07 1.50E-06 4.12E-08 2.30E-06
Table 1 Comparison of PIE and FFREQ Failure Frequency Predictions
Figure 2 Comparison of PIE and FFREQ Total Failure Frequency Predictions
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Figure 3 Comparison of PIE and FFREQ Rupture Frequency Predictions
More recent work carried out for UKOPA in relation to the development of the code
supplements to IGE/TD/1 and PD 8010 Part 1 has compared predictions for pipe cases
selected to present the range of pipelines in the UKOPA database with operational failures,
where failures are defined as product losses. This comparison is shown in Figure 4.
Figure 4 Comparison of PIE and FFREQ Total Failure Frequency Predictions with UKOPA
Data
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Figure 4 shows that the PIE model predictions of total failure frequency for pipelines
operating at a design factor of 0.72 and 0.3 bound the operational data, and the FFREQ
predictions of total failure frequency are higher than the PIE model. Based on the above
comparisons, UKOPA concluded that reasonable agreement had been demonstrated
between the PIE model, FFREQ and operational data recorded in the UKOPA pipeline fault
database.
Prediction of pipeline failure frequencies UKOPA recommendations
Following detailed review and consideration of the results of the study shown above and
comparison of pipeline failure models and failure frequency predictions obtained using the
original dent-gouge and the UKOPA limit state models, UKOPA concluded that the original
dent-gouge model has been subject to detailed review, and has been applied extensively in
the period of its existence. It is widely recognised and is included in a number of expert
methodologies, including the PIPESAFE risk assessment software package [7], the EPRG
defect assessment guidelines [9] and the Pipeline Defect Assessment Manual PDAM [2].
The same level of review is not yet available for other models, including the UKOPA limit
state [3, 4]. In addition, it is appreciated that further work relating the probability of damage
caused to specific pipelines by the force applied by different machinery is required, but
currently this data does not exist in detail for the UK. In this situation, the application of
UKOPA dent-gouge damage data is conservative, particularly with respect to larger diameter
and thicker wall pipelines.
Based on the above, UKOPA has therefore recommended that failure frequency predictions
for use in pipeline risk analysis should be based on application of the original dent-gouge
model (i.e. the PIE model in this work), as there is extensive practical experience in the use
and interpretation of predictions from this model, and comprehensive validation against
empirical failure data has been carried out. In addition, UKOPA has recommended the use
of FFREQ as the standard industry failure frequency prediction software tool. The FFREQ
software is currently being prepared by Advantica for release to UKOPA members as a
standalone software module, and the damage data distributions are being updated to
include data from the current UKOPA Pipeline Fault Database. At the time of the current
work, these developments were not available, so the PIE model was used to obtain failure
frequency predictions due to 3
rd
party interference for the Corrib pipeline.
Prediction of Failure Frequencies due to 3
rd
party interference for the Corrib Pipeline
Pipeline Parameters
DNV required failure frequency predictions for the Corrib pipeline at four operating
pressures, 345 bar, 144 bar, 100 bar and 55 bar. The pipeline parameters supplied by DNV
for use in the PIE model are given in Table 2.
Parameter Value
Diameter 508 mm
Wall thickness 27.1mm
Material Grade X70
Table 2 Pipeline Parameters for the Corrib Pipeline
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The material properties used in the analysis are based on BS EN 10208-2:-
SMYS = 485 N/mm
2
SMTS = 570 N/mm
2
In addition, the Charpy energy value assumed was taken from published risk analyses for
the Corrib pipeline [10,11], which quote a Charpy impact energy of 130 Joules with a COV of
0.4. Based on this, a Charpy energy value of 70 Joules was selected for use in the analysis.
Probability of failure and failure frequency predictions
The probability of failure and failure frequency predictions for the Corrib pipeline obtained
using the PIE model are given in Table 3.
Operating Pressure bar Predictions
345 144 100 55
Leak 5.83E-05 4.53E-06 2.57E-06 1.83E-06
Rupture 1.08E-04 6.86E-07 6.30E-08 0.00E+00
Probability of
Failure
Total 1.66E-04 5.22E-06 2.64E-06 1.83E-06
Leak 4.95E-08 3.85E-09 2.19E-09 1.55E-09
Rupture 9.15E-08 5.82E-10 5.35E-11 0.00E+00
Failure
Frequency
Km.yrs Total 1.41E-07 4.43E-09 2.24E-09 1.55E-09
Table 3 Probability of Failure and Failure Frequency Predictions for the Corrib Pipeline
Note:- Failure Frequency = Probability of failure x number of incidents per kmyr
Discussion
Factors affecting the failure of gas pipelines
Temperature effects
Release of high pressure gas through a defect in a pipe wall will result in cooling of the
depressurising gas due to the Joule-Thompson effect. However, as the area through which
the gas is released is small, gas expansion will not occur until the gas has passed through
the defect/crack/hole, ie external to the pipe, so in general, cooling of the pipe material is
unlikely to have an effect on the failure mechanism.
This possibility of material cooling has been acknowledged, and research programmes to
investigate it have been proposed, but to date such proposals have not been supported as
there is no immediate practical operational evidence that this temperature effect has a major
impact on failure behaviour. There are no current reports of practical operational evidence
which indicate that material cooling due to gas depressurisation affects the predicted failure
mechanism, and this is not included in existing failure models.
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Critical defect length
The most common form of 3
rd
party damage is a gouge, which is assumed to act as a crack-
like defect. Depending upon the depth and the pressure, the gouge will fail as a through wall
defect, resulting in a leak. If the length of the gouge is greater than a critical length (which is
dependent upon the pipe properties and pressure), the defect will be unstable and fast
propagation driven by the energy of the pressurised gas will occur. This will result in a
rupture, in which the fracture runs along the axis and then around the circumference,
resulting in two open pipe ends. This behaviour is observed in research studies and real
incidents.
The leak/rupture behaviour has a discrete boundary, which is characterised by the critical
defect size. This defect size is the axial length of a crack-like defect. To facilitate release
rate calculations, the through wall critical crack is generally represented by an equivalent
diameter hole. In the PIE model used in the current study, the length of the critical defect is
calculated from fracture mechanics relationships. The equivalent hole size is derived from
an experimental study reported by Baum and Butterfield [10]. The hole size equation is:-
706 . 3
5 . 0
0
0007548 . 0 1 . 0
(
=
Dt
L
x
A
A
Where:-
A = leak area
Ao = cross sectional area of pipe
L = defect length
D = diameter of pipe
t = wall thickness
The failure frequency model predictions for critical crack length vs pressure have been used
to partition the leak hole size for the four operational conditions considered, ie 345 barg, 144
barg, 100 bar and 55 bar as follows:-
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Operating
Pressure - barg
Critical
length
mm
Equivalent
hole size
Dia, mm
Proportion of leaks
which are pinholes
Proportion of leaks
which are greater than
pinholes
345
103.58
6.7 100% 0%
144 304.89 38.4 91.5% 8.5%
100 447.06 79.71 84.99% 15.01%
55 822.16 263.57 78.8% 21.2%
Table 4 Calculated critical defect lengths and equivalent hole diameters
Note that the calculated equivalent hole diameters are much smaller than the critical defect
lengths. This is because the opening crack-like defect through which gas is escaping is long
and very narrow, typically with an aspect ratio of a/c <0.1. This type of defect becomes
unstable because of the sharp crack shape at the ends of the defect, which have a high
stress concentration and stress intensity factor. The equivalent hole diameters determined in
this way do not represent through-wall, rounded punctures.
Charpy energy values
Low Charpy energy values result in increased predictions of failure frequency and an
increase in the proportion of ruptures. The Charpy energy values used in the prediction of
failure frequencies for the Corrib pipeline in the current study was assumed to be a lower
bound of 70J. This value is conservative, project personnel have confirmed that all Charpy
energy values for material used in the construction of the Corrib pipeline exceed this value.
Comparison of current with previous predictions
The probability of failure and failure frequency predictions for the 345 bar operating pressure
given in Table 3 are compared with the previous predictions reported by J P Kenny [12] and
Advantica [13] in Table 5 below:-
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Predictions for 345 bar
Operating Pressure PIE J P Kenny Advantica
Leak 5.83E-05 2.55E-04 2.50E-04
Rupture 1.08E-04 6.09E-05 8.70E-04
Probability of
Failure
Total 1.66E-04 3.16E-04 1.12E-03
Leak 4.95E-08 4.74E-07 3.75E-07
Rupture 9.15E-08 1.13E-07 1.31E-06
Failure Frequency
km.yrs
Total 1.41E-07 5.87E-07 1.69E-06
Table 5 Comparison of PIE probability of failure and failure frequency predictions with those
reported by J P Kenny and Advantica
The results in Table 5 show that the total failure frequency predicted by J P Kenny is 4 times
greater than the PIE prediction, but the J P Kenny predictions give the proportion of ruptures
as 19.2% of the total failure frequency, while the PIE predictions give the proportion of
ruptures as 65% of the total. Comparing the predictions for ruptures, it is noted that the
probability of failure due to rupture reported by J P Kenny is 0.56 times the value predicted
using the PIE model, and the failure frequency is 1.24 times the value predicted using the
PIE model. The models used by PIE and J P Kenny for the prediction of the probability of
failure due to rupture are very similar, the lower probability of failure due to ruptures reported
by J P Kenny compared to PIE is considered to be due to the different treatment of dent
damage data; the J P Kenny model converts the dent damage data into applied force data,
whereas the PIE model assumes the probability of the dent damage can occur to any
pipeline. In this respect, the PIE model is conservative. The difference which then occurs in
translating the probability of failure into a failure frequency is due to the higher incident rate
assumed by J P Kenny. It is noted that J P Kenny refer to a gas industry (pipeline uprating)
paper, which quotes a single typical incident rate for 36 diameter pipes. The incident rate
used in the PIE model is derived from damage data recorded in the UKOPA database,
interpreted using the same approach developed in the original British Gas work, ie the data
has been interrogated to remove incorrectly classified damage, and to remove wrap-only
damage. Taking these factors into account, the rupture failure frequencies reported by J P
Kenny and PIE are not dissimilar.
The major difference in the total failure frequency predictions and the proportion of leaks vs
ruptures is due to the higher leak frequency predicted by J P Kenny. J P Kenny use a model
which predicts the probability of pipewall puncture by an excavator bucket tooth, whereas
the PIE model uses the same failure model for the prediction of the probability of leaks and
ruptures, the model calculates the critical gouge length, and the failure is predicted to be a
rupture if this critical length is exceeded. The J P Kenny report states that the puncture
model has been calibrated against results obtained from a recent joint industry project
carried out in North America. The J P Kenny report notes that the machine size distribution
data is considered conservative, and truncates the distribution to account for this. In this
respect, it is considered that the J P Kenny model predicts a higher probability of failure due
to leaks than the PIE model.
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The comparison in Table 4 shows that the probability of failure reported by Advantica is 8.08
times the value predicted using the PIE model, and the failure frequency is 14.4 times the
value predicted using the PIE model. This indicates the values reported by Advantica are
higher than those predicted by the PIE model. The differences in predictions are similar to
those considered by UKOPA (ref Section 3.1) and are considered to be due to the use of i)
the updated failure model, which includes additional parameters (microcrack, plasticity and
residual stress, modified Charpy correlation) which result in more conservative predictions
but for which there is currently no validation data or verification process, and ii) the
Advantica structural reliability analysis software, which gives conservative predictions, but
the reasons for this are unknown.
A summary of the methodologies used for predicting the failure frequency due to 3
rd
party
interference for the Corrib pipeline is given in Appendix 4.
Sensitivity studies
The Corrib pipeline differs from the general population of UK MAHPs in that it is ultra-thick
wall. Simple sensitivity studies were therefore carried out to assess the influences of the
pipeline parameters on the predicted failure frequency.
The variation of the rupture and total failure frequency for a 508 mm diameter, X70, 0.72
design factor pipeline of varying wall thickness is shown in Figure 5.
Figure 5 shows that failure frequency falls to minimal value at wall thicknesses greater than
15mm. Typically, 508 mm diameter gas pipelines in the UK population have wall thicknesses
of 8mm. The above figure shows that the rupture frequency for a 508 mm diameter pipeline
is approximately 3.5E-05, compared to a rupture frequency of 1.76E-07 for a pipeline of
27mm wall thickness, ie the rupture frequency of the 27mm wall thickness pipe is
approximately 200 times lower than that of a pipeline with a typical wall thickness. This
confirms that the increase in wall thickness significantly reduces the pipeline rupture
frequency.
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Figure 5 Variation of Failure Frequency for a 508mm dia, X70, 0.72 design factor pipeline with
varying wall thickness
The variation of the total failure frequency with design factor is shown in Figure 6, and the
rupture frequency as a proportion of the total frequency with design factor is shown in Figure
7.
Figure 6 Variation of Total Failure Frequency with Design Factor
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Figure 7 Variation of the proportion of ruptures with design factor
Figure 7 shows that the proportion of ruptures increases with design factor. This is due to the
reduction in the critical gouge length with increase in pressure and therefore stress. The
trend is confirmed in Figure 8, which compares the variation in the proportion of ruptures
with pressure reported by Advantica and predicted using the PIE model. This confirms that
for high pressure gas pipelines, the failure rate is dominated by the rupture rate.
Figure 8 Comparison of proportion of ruptures with pressure as reported by PIE and
Advantica
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Application of the PIE model to the Corrib Pipeline.
The comparison of the PIE model predictions and FFREQ predictions for equivalent pipeline
cases reported in Section 3.4 confirms that the PIE model gives similar values to predictions
to those obtained using the recognised gas industry model FFREQ over the range of
pipeline parameters representing typical UK major accident hazard pipelines (ie diameter
200 1000mm, wall thickness 5 19mm, operating pressure 40 90 bar, design factor 0.3
0.72). The Corrib pipeline differs from the typical pipeline population in that the wall
thickness is much greater, and the thicker wall means that the pressures are greater for
equivalent design factors The comparison discussed in Section 5.1 shows that the
predictions obtained using the PIE model are similar to those reported by J P Kenny for the
345 bar operating pressure. This comparison also shows that the PIE model predictions are
lower than those reported by Advantica using their updated failure model and structural
reliability analysis software. The order of magnitude difference between the PIE model and
Advantica for the Corrib pipeline is similar to that observed by UKOPA over a wide range of
typical pipe conditions.
Work carried out by UKOPA confirmed that while the Advantica updated failure model and
structural reliability analysis predictions were higher than predictions obtained using FFREQ,
the variation of failure frequency predictions with structural parameters was similar, ie
increase in failure frequency prediction with increase in design factor and reduction in wall
thickness. In this regard, the increase in the proportion of ruptures with pressure predicted
using the PIE model compares closely with the trend predicted by Advantica.
Based on the above, it is considered reasonable to apply the PIE model to prediction of
failure frequencies for the Corrib pipeline. Application of the PIE model indicates that the
rupture frequency of the Corrib pipeline is approximately 200 times lower than that of an
equivalent pipeline of standard wall thickness, typical of those in the UK pipeline population.
Conclusions
A methodology for the prediction of pipeline failure frequencies due to 3
rd
party interference
developed based on work originally carried out for and published by British Gas has been
used to predict failure frequencies for the Corrib pipeline.
The predicted failure frequencies for the specified operating pressures are:-
Operating Pressure bar Predictions
345 144 100 55
Leak 5.83E-05 4.53E-06 2.57E-06 1.83E-06
Rupture 1.08E-04 6.86E-07 6.30E-08 0.00E+00
Probability of
Failure
Total 1.66E-04 5.22E-06 2.64E-06 1.83E-06
Leak 4.95E-08 3.85E-09 2.19E-09 1.55E-09
Rupture 9.15E-08 5.82E-10 5.35E-11 0.00E+00
Failure
Frequency
Km.yrs Total 1.41E-07 4.43E-09 2.24E-09 1.55E-09
Comparison with other published failure frequency predictions and the results of sensitivity
studies have confirmed it is reasonable to apply the prediction methodology to the Corrib
pipeline.
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Application of the PIE model indicates that the rupture frequency of the Corrib pipeline is
approximately 200 times lower than that of an equivalent pipeline of standard wall thickness,
typical of those in the UK pipeline population.
References
1 The Application of Risk Techniques to the Design and operation of Pipelines. I Corder.
Ageing Pipelines I Mech E Conference September 1995. C50-2/016/95
2 IPC02-27067 The Pipeline Defect Assessment Manual. Proceedings of IPC 2002
International Pipeline Conference. Andrew Cosham and Phil Hopkins.
3 A New Limit State Function for the Instantaneous Failure of a Dent Containing A Gouge
In A Pressurised Pipeline. A Francis, T Miles and V Chauhan October 2004.
4 Development of a New Limit State Function for the Failure of pipelines Due To
Mechanical Damage. A Francis, C S Jandu, R M Andrews, T J Miles, V Chauhan. PRCI
Paper April 2005.
5 ERS E576 Prediction of Pipeline Failure Frequencies. I Corder and G D Fearnehough.
Presented at the Second International Conference on Pipes, Pipelines, and Pipeline
Systems. Utrecht, Netherlands, June 1987.
6 UKOPA Pipeline Fault Database Pipeline Product Loss Incidents 1962 2004. April
2005.
7 PD 8010: Code of Practice for Pipelines Part 1: Steel pipelines on land. BSI 2004.
8 IGE/TD/1 Edition 4 Steel Pipelines for High Pressure Gas Transmission. IGEM 2001.
9 Recent Developments in the Design and Application of the PIPESAFE Risk Assessment
Package for Gas Transmission Pipelines. M R Acton, T R Baldwin, E E R Jager. ASME
International, Proceedings of the International Pipeline Conference, 2002, Calgary
September 2002.
10 EPRG Methods for Assessing the Tolerance and Resistance of Pipelines to External
Damage, P Roovers, R Bood, M Galli, U Marewski, Steiner, M Zarea. Proceedings of
the Third International Pipeline Technology Conference, Brugge, Belgium, R. Denys,
Ed., Elsevier Science, 2000, pp. 405-425.
11 Studies of the Depressurisation of Gas Pressurised Pipes During Rupture. M
Baum, J M Butterfield. Journal of Mechanical Engineering Science. Vol 21 No 4
1979. IMechE
12 J P Kenny 05-2102-02-F-3-835 Corrib Field Development (Phase II) Onshore Pipeline
Quantified Risk Assessment. April 2005.
13 Advantica Report R 8391 Independent Safety Review of the Onshore Section of the
Proposed Corrib Gas Pipeline. M Acton and R Andrews. January 2006.
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Appendix I: Glossary
UKOPA - United Kingdom Onshore Pipeline Operators Association is an industry
association formed to co-ordinate industry best practice with respect to safe operation and
integrity management of pipelines. This organisation has a long term strategic goal to
achieve consistency in pipeline risk assessment with respect to models, methods
assumptions and data, specifically with respect to risk based land use planning zones.
UKOPA was involved in the production of the risk assessment supplements to the onshore
pipeline codes IGE/TD/1 and PD 8010 Part 1. UKOPA membership comprises in the UK:
National Grid, Shell, BP, Sabic UK Petrochemicals, Esso, Ineos, Total UK, BPA, OPA,
Northern Gas Networks, Scotia Gas Network, Wales and West Utilities, BG Group, Eon UK,
Unipen, Centrica.
EPRG - European Pipeline Research Group is a cooperation of European pipe
manufacturers and gas transmission companies. EPRG undertakes a wide range of
research directed to increased integrity and safety of gas transmission pipelines, and
provides authoritative guidance to members and publishes the results of its research widely.
EPRG membership comprises 18 member companies, 9 gas transmission and 9 pipe
manufacturing companies, from 8 European countries.
FFREQ - methodology for the prediction of pipeline failure probability due to 3
rd
party
interference damage. It combines historical UK gas industry data on the frequency and
severity of damage (using Weibull distributions for the gouge and dent damage parameters)
with a structural model that determines the severity of damage required to cause failure of a
specific pipeline. This method allows the influence of the main pipeline parameters
(diameter, wall thickness, grade and toughness) on failure probability to be quantified.
PIE Model Reconstruction of the FFREQ methodology using the original dent-gouge failure
model and dent and gouge damage probability distributions derived from operational data
recorded in the UKOPA database.
PDAM - Pipeline Damage Assessment Manual comprehensive manual developed as a
joint industry project sponsored by sixteen major oil and gas companies. The manual
provides a critical and authoritative review of available pipeline defect assessment models
and methods, reports comparisons with empirical data and gives recommendations for the
best current method for each type of damage.
PIPESAFE knowledge-based, integrated software package for risk assessment of gas
transmission pipelines, originally developed in 1994 by an international collaboration of a
number of gas transmission companies, and since then has been developed and enhanced
in a number of key phases. The software package allows risk assessments to be carried out
following different methodologies, depending on company practices and/or the regulatory
environment in which the pipeline is operated, and provides the user with substantial
flexibility and freedom to select different rules and procedures.
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Appendix II: Pipeline Failure Model and Methodology for Prediction of Probability of
Failure due to 3
rd
Party Interference
British Gas Failure Model
The original work to develop a method for the prediction of failure frequencies due to 3
rd
party interference was carried out for British Gas at the Engineering Research Station,
Killingworth in the mid 1980s. This section details the fracture mechanics equations used in
the modelling of the failure state of a specific pipeline to 2-dimensional (infinitely long) dent-
gouge damage in this model
1
.
The depth of gouge required to cause failure for a particular pipeline geometry and known
operating conditions can be obtained by rearranging the gouge failure equation
(
(
=
SMYS f
SMYS f
M
t d
/ 15 . 1
/ 15 . 1
(1)
Where
d = defect depth
t = wall thickness
f
= failure stress
SMYS
= specified minimum yield stress of pipeline material
M = Folias factor.
For the purposes of this study the Folias factor is defined as
2
2
26 . 0 1
|
|
.
|
\
|
+ =
Rt
c
M (2)
Where
2c = gouge length
R = pipeline radius
By defining a leak/rupture limit to the Folias factor
f SMYS crit
M / 15 . 1 = (3)
And substituting in to the original Folias factor definition the critical length of the gouge can
be determined
1
Note, the equations in this section are taken directly from the original British Gas references [5-10] and are
given in imperial units.
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2 / 1
2
846 . 3 1 3225 . 1
(
(
|
|
.
|
\
|
(
(
= Rt L
f
SMYS
crit
(4)
Gouges of length L
crit
or larger will rupture, shorter gouges will leak
2
. This is used to
determine the differences between leak failure frequencies and rupture failure frequencies.
It has been shown that the failure stress of a pipeline incorporating a dent/gouge
combination of known geometry can be predicted with reasonable accuracy from:
(
(
|
|
.
|
\
|
(
|
|
.
|
\
|
(
+
|
|
.
|
\
|
(
57 . 0
9 . 1 ) ln(
exp
2
2 . 10
2
8 . 1 1
5 . 1
exp cos
2
2
2 1
2
1 v
f
C
R
D
t
R
Y
R
D
Y
Ad
E
(5)
Where:
E = elastic modulus of pipeline material
A = 0.083
d = gouge depth
D = dent depth
C
v
= Charpy energy (measured using 2/3 specimen)
All other factors are as above
is the flow stress, a measure of the resistance of the material to plastic collapse and is
defined as:
|
|
.
|
\
|
|
.
|
\
|
=
t
d
SMYS
1 15 . 1 (6)
Y
1
and Y
2
are defined as follows:
4 3 2
2
4 3 2
1
0 . 14 1 . 13 32 . 7 39 . 1 12 . 1
4 . 30 7 . 21 6 . 10 23 . 0 12 . 1
|
.
|
\
|
+ |
.
|
\
|
|
.
|
\
|
+ |
.
|
\
|
=
|
.
|
\
|
+ |
.
|
\
|
|
.
|
\
|
+ |
.
|
\
|
=
t
d
t
d
t
d
t
d
Y
t
d
t
d
t
d
t
d
Y
(7, 8)
The size of dent required to cause failure with a particular gouge can be obtained by re-
arranging equation (5):
2
Note: risk analysis consequence models require interpretation of critical gouge length in terms of hole size.
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[ ]
8 . 1 2 . 10
1
5 . 1 2
sec ln
57 . 0
9 . 1 ln
exp
2 /
1
2
2 / 1
2
1
2
|
.
|
\
|
|
|
.
|
\
|
(
(
(
(
(
|
|
.
|
\
|
|
|
.
|
\
|
(
|
.
|
\
|
=
t
R
Y
Y
Y
E
Ad
C
R D
f
v
(9)
Equation (5) is semi-empirical based on multiple regression of the [ ] ( ) 57 . 0 / 9 . 1 ln
v
C term.
The subject of the equation has been changed from
f
/
SMYS
in equation (5) to D/2R and
hence it is necessary to perform a new regression for the new subject. This procedure
results in the constants 1.9 and 0.57 being replaced by 2.049 and 0.534 respectively [5]
A more detailed discussion of this model and the parameters which influence predictions is
given by Cosham and Hopkins [2].
Methodology for prediction of the likelihood of occurrence of dent-gouge damage
The methodology developed for the prediction of the likelihood of occurrence of the dent-
gouge damage which results in failure for the specified pipeline conditions is summarised in
this section. This methodology is reconstructed from the original work undertaken by the
British Gas Engineering Research Station [5,6,7,8,9,10].
Weibull Probability Curves
The methodology for the prediction of the likelihood of occurrence of the dent-gouge damage
is a probabilistic model making use of Weibull probability distributions specific to the
dimensions of the dent-gouge damage to give the probabilities of the damage occurring.
Cumulative probability distribution curves were produced for i) gouge length, ii) gouge depth
and iii) dent depth. In each case the cumulative probability relates to the probability of
occurrence for a specified size of damage or greater.
The cumulative probabilities shown with fitted Weibull probability distributions are given in
Figures A1 A3 below. In all cases, operational damage data has been interpreted
conservatively, i.e. the worst case damage dimensions recorded for each incident are
assumed, based on using the gouge depth as the overall selection parameter.
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0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Gouge Length mm
C
u
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
Figure A1 Cumulative Probability of Gouge Length L or Greater
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Gouge Depth mm
C
u
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
Figure A2 Cumulative Probability of Gouge Depth D or Greater
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0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Dent Depth mm
C
u
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
Figure A3 Cumulative Probability of Dent Depth D or Greater
Likelihood Methodology
The method for the calculation of the likelihood of occurrence of the dent-gouge damage
which results in failure for specified pipeline conditions using the above cumulative
probability curves for gouge length (Figure A1), gouge depth (Figure A2) and dent depth
(Figure A3) and its use in conjunction with a dent-gouge failure model in the prediction of
pipeline failure frequencies is briefly summarised below.
For given pipeline parameters (diameter, wall thickness, pressure) use a defined (published)
engineering equation for a dent-gouge model to calculate the critical defect length L
c
for
rupture.
Assume that gouges of length L >= L
crit
will rupture, gouges of length L< L
crit
will leak.
Determine the probability of occurrence P(L
crit
) of a gouge of length L
crit
from Figure A1.
Obtain the probability of occurrence P(d
wt
) a gouge of depth d = wt from Figure A2, and
calculate the probability of failure as:
PoF = P(L
crit
)*P(d
wt
)
This value is the start of the PoF Sum for leaks.
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Divide the gouge length between 0 L
crit
into increments, L
crit
/N
i
Calculate the mean length L
i
and incremental probability dP(L
i
)for the current increment from
Figure 2.
Calculate d
crit
at L
i
using a dent-gouge model.
Determine the probability of occurrence P(d
crit
) of a gouge of depth d
crit
from Figure A2, and
calculate the probability of failure as:
PoF = P(d
crit
)*dP(L
i
)
Add this to the PoF Sum for leaks.
Divide the gouge depth cumulative probability curve into a number j, of gouge depths, d. For
each gouge depth d
j
, determine the probability of occurrence dP(d
j
) from the Figure A2 and
calculate the depth of dent Dc
j
using the dent-gouge model which would cause failure in
combination with this gouge depth using a failure equation/limit state.
Determine the probability of occurrence P
Dcj
of dent depth Dc
j
from Figure A3
Calculate the probability of failure as:
PoF = P(Dc
j
)*dP(d
j
)*dP(L
i
)
Add this to the PoF Sum for leaks.
Repeat steps iii)-x) for each gouge length increment up to L
crit
and add all the PoF sums to
obtain the leak probability.
To obtain the rupture probability, repeat steps iii) xi) using gouge length increments
between L
c
and L
max
.
Obtain the total probability of failure by adding the leak and rupture probabilities.
Calculate the failure frequency using the calculated total PoF and the incident rate (the
incident rate calculated from current data is 8.49x10
-4
per kmyear)
FF = Incident Rate x PoF
Weibull Distribution
The most significant factor in the failure frequency prediction methodology is the use of
probability distributions to obtain occurrence probabilities. The probability distributions used
in this case are Weibull distributions which are fitted to the filtered operational damage data
recorded in the UKOPA 2004 fault database [11]. The process of fitting the Weibull curves is
detailed below.
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Weibull Definition
The standard Weibull distribution is defined as:
( )
b b
ax abx x f =
exp ) (
1
0 ,
0
b a
x
) exp( 1 ) (
b
ax x F =
) ( 1 ) ( x F x R =
Where
f(x) = density function
= probability of a gouge depth x
F(x) = distribution function
= probability of a gouge depth less than or equal to x
R(x) = risk function, 1-F(x)
1-F(x) = probability of a gouge greater than x
Fitting Weibull Curves
Weibull curves were fitted via the determination of two unknowns in the Weibull equation.
The Weibull parameters were fitted using a generalised nonlinear regression function in the
maths solution software Mathcad.
The values produced by Mathcad for the three required curves are shown in Table A1
Table A1. Weibull Fit Parameters
Parameter
Gouge Length Weibull 0.6 120.851
Gouge Depth Weibull 0.889 1.442
Dent Depth Weibull 0.69 6.202
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Appendix III: Flow Diagram for Failure Frequency Prediction Methodology using PIE
Model
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1
2
1
2
/
846 . 3 1 3225 . 1
N L L
Rt L
crit
f
SMYS
crit
=
(
(
|
|
.
|
\
|
(
(
( ) ( ) ( )
i i i
i i
L P L L P L P
L L L
+ =
+ =
( )
( )
2
max/
/ 15 . 1
/ 15 . 1 min
max
N d d
M
t
d
y h
y h
=
=
( ) ( ) ( )
j j j
j j
d P d d P d P
d d d
+ =
+ = 2 /
( )
j
j
crit
crit
D P
D
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( )
=
=
=
=
=
=
1 2
1 1
N i
i
N j
j
j i crit
ij PFAIL PFAIL
d P L P D P ij PFAIL
j
j=N2
i=N1
Li Lcrit
PLEAK=PFAIL
L=(LMAX-LCRIT)/N1
PRUP=PFAIL
END
Yes No
Yes
Yes
No
No J=j+1
i=i+1
j=0
i=i+1
PFAIL=0
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Appendix IV; Summary of 3rd Party Interference Failure Frequency Models Applied to
Corrib Pipeline
Methodology Probability of
Damage
Structural
modelling of
through-wall
failure
Probability of failure due to i) leaks
and ii) ruptures
Failure Frequency
J P Kenny Gouge depth & length
parameters as
published by BG
Technology for UK gas
industry (Gouge depth -
Weibull distribution,
length offset logistic )
Dent force calculated
using dent-force
relationship published
by Corder and Chatain
using correlation with
excavator mass from
US JIP
EPRG published
version of the
original dent-
gouge failure
model developed
by the UK gas
industry
Probability calculations carried out
using Monte Carlo simulation taking
into account probability distributions
for wall thickness, yield strength and
fracture toughness as well as damage
dimensions (dent depth, gouge length
and depth).
Probability of failure
x 3
rd
party damage
incident rate
published in BG
Technology
technical paper on
structural reliability
modelling applied to
pipeline uprating
Advantica Gouge depth and length
parameters as above,
Dent-force Weibull
distribution based on
dent force calculated
for gas industry dent
data.
Dent-gouge model
updated to include
Alignment with
latest R6 defect
assessment
procedures, dent
residual stress and
microcrack in
gouge.
Probability calculations carried out
using structural reliability analysis,
taking into account probability
distributions for wall thickness, yield
strength and fracture toughness as well
as damage dimensions (dent depth,
gouge length and depth).
Assume - Probability
of failure x 3
rd
party
damage incident rate
from gas industry
data
PIE Model Weibull distributions
for gouge depth and
length and dent depth
from UKOPA database
EPRG published
version of the
original dent-
gouge failure
model developed
by the UK gas
industry
Probability calculations consider
damage dimensions (dent depth, gouge
length and depth) only, nominal wall
thickness assumed, specified minimum
yield stress and lower bound Charpy
energy.
Rupture probability calculated from the
cumulative probability of a gouge
length equal to or exceeding the critical
defect length.
Probability of failure
x 3
rd
party damage
incident rate from
UKOPA database
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Appendix IV Consequence Analysis
Consequence Analysis
The modelling of the consequences of a failure in the pipeline or equipment associated with the
LVI involves the following;
Determination of release rate
Fire modelling
Impact modelling
The approach taken for these aspects is given below. Two sets of consequences have been
calculated for the pipeline downstream of the LVI, one associated with the design pressure (144
bar) and one associated with 100 bar, the upper pressure of the stated normal operating range.
A third set of consequences has been calculated for 345 bar. This has been done to model an
unlikely situation where the LVI is in the closed position with 345 bar upstream (and with the
downstream pipeline at 144 bar).
Release rate modelling.
The first task is to select the hole sizes that are to be used to represent the spectrum of possible
hole sizes. This is usually dependent on the format of the failure frequency data. The pipeline
frequencies are categorised in EGIG as:
Pinhole/crack: the diameter of the hole is smaller than or equal to 20mm
Hole: the diameter of the hole is larger than 20mm and smaller than or equal to the diameter
of the pipe
Rupture; the diameter of the hole is larger than the diameter of the pipe
The equipment frequencies are categorised as:
12mm
25mm
100mm
Full bore
Pipeline rupture events typically cause the loss of part of the pipeline length causing a crater
and two open ends. This approach has been taken for pipeline ruptures. Ruptures of
equipment are normally considered to give a hole with a similar cross sectional area to the cross
sectional area of the piping. However as the discharge data were given for two pipeline ends
(rather than a single hole with the same diameter as the pipeline) the same approach was taken
for full bore ruptures of the equipment in the LVI area as for the pipeline.
Leaks in high pressure pipelines can propagate into ruptures if the defect is unstable and is
greater than a critical size. Examples of critical hole diameters for pipelines operating at design
factor 0.72 with material grade X65 are given in PD 8010 (and range from 2.53mm for 219mm
diameter pipeline with a wall thickness of 4.56mm to 7.05mm for 914mm diameter pipeline with
a wall thickness of 19.04mm). PIE advised that for the Corrib pipeline operating at 144bara the
critical crack length is 305mm, which is equivalent to a hole size of 38mm diameter.
Consequently the hole category for pipelines was considered to represent holes with diameters
between 20 and 38mm. This range was represented by a single hole with a cross sectional
area (CSA) mid way between the CSA of a 20mm hole and that of a 38mm hole (ie a hole
diameter of 31mm). For simplicity, this hole size was also used to represent the 25mm hole in
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equipment failures. Both the pipeline pinhole and the smallest hole in equipment were
represented by a 12mm dia hole. A summary of the hole sizes is given in Table 17.
Table 17 Hole Sizes Used in the Analysis
Description Hole Size mm
Pinhole 12
Hole 31
Rupture Two holes, 454 each
The release from a large hole in the pipeline or equipment would give a release rate that varies
(reduces) with time. There are several models available to predict the variation of release rate
with time, and the model selected for this analysis was the Pipetech model (data provided by
SEPIL). The predictions from this model for the pipeline release (two open ends) for 345 bar,
144 bar and 100 bar are shown in Figure 14. Specific values are given in Table 18.
Figure 14 Discharge Rates from Ruptures
Discharge Rates
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Time s
D
i
s
c
h
a
r
g
e
R
a
t
e
k
g
/
s
144 bar
100 bar
345 bar
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Table 18 Discharge Rates from Ruptures
Release
Rate
kg/s
Mass
Discharged
kg
Release
Rate
kg/s
Mass
Discharged
kg
Release
Rate
kg/s
Mass
Discharged
kg
Time
(s)
345 bar 345 bar 144bar 144bar 100bar 100bar
5 5752 38390 2733 17963 1839 12073
30 3226 138938 1558 66243 1045 44187
60 2400 221391 1225 107356 807 71207
100 1837 304587 978 150845 648 99961
Releases from the two smaller hole sizes were considered to be constant over time and the rate
was determined using standard discharge equations (16kg/s for 31mm dia and 2.5kg/s for
12mm dia at 144 bar).
1.1 Fire Modelling
The following basic models are used for thermal radiation hazards for immediate ignition events
of gaseous releases in QRAs:
Jet fire
Fireball
It is appropriate to use the jet fire model for releases from holes in the pipeline, but neither of
these models is particularly suitable for the modelling of the rupture cases. JPK used a jet fire
model, Advantica and the UKHSE use a fireball model followed by either a jet or a trench fire
model (which is a variation of a jet fire model).
A review of incidents involving the rupture of natural gas pipelines (see Appendix V) indicated
the following:
Early ignition of the release sometimes gives rise to a fireball and sometimes there is no
fireball fireball effects tend to be seen when ignition occurs very shortly after the start of
the release, and are not generally observed if ignition occurs after a short delay
The UKHSE fireball model generally overpredicts the burn area
The burn area is sometimes centred over the release location and sometimes offset
(normally downstream)
For a number of releases the burn area is characterised by two jets (from each side of the
pipeline rupture) and jets at a large angle to the pipeline direction
Despite these observations, models have not yet been calibrated to replicate all these effects,
nor have probability partitions been established. It was therefore decided that the rupture
modelling should use available models. Details of the Advantica fireball model are not
published, so DNV has based its fireball modelling on the model used by the UKHSE when
assessing the risk from natural gas pipelines. The cumulative mass released is given by the
discharge model. The time required to release a particular mass is then compared with the burn
time of a fireball containing that mass. The fireball used in the determination of risk is taken as
the time when these two times are equal. The fireball is assumed to be spherical and to touch
the ground for its duration (ie no fireball rise is incorporated). It should also be noted that the
fireball model is based on small scale releases and was designed to predict the size and
January 2009
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duration of fireballs from failures of liquefied flammable gases. Hence the application of such a
model to pipeline ruptures is somewhat uncertain.
Once the fireball phase has been completed, the release from the pipeline is more appropriately
modelled as a jet or trench fire (with a constant release rate). Typical fireball burn times for
releases from pipelines go up to 30s and the subsequent jet fire modelling typically uses a
constant release rate to characterise this jet (eg release rate after 30s). The release rate after
the fireball phase for the Corrib pipeline (which was 16s (for 144bar) and 14s (for 100bar)) is still
rapidly changing. It was considered appropriate to consider the average release rate over the
next 30s as the basis for the jet fire modelling (and as the fireball duration is some 15s this is
almost the same as the discharge rate predicted after 30s). Jet fires have been modelled in
PHAST, using the DNV recommended option. Two jet fires were modelled. One where the
release was vertically upwards with no loss of momentum (unimpeded), and one where the
release was vertically upwards but the velocity was reduced to 25% of the unimpeded case (to
represent the crater fire).
Although a fireball type of combustion is often observed when releases from gas pipelines are
ignited, this is not always the case, especially when the ignition is slightly delayed. It was
determined that the hazard range for the fireball followed by a jet flame was slightly smaller than
the hazard range for a jet fire with a release rate taken as the average release rate over the first
30s. It was therefore assumed that for some ignitions, the consequences should be
characterised by such a jet flame. Consequence information and the probabilities assigned are
shown in Table 19. The consequences for ignited releases (jet flames) from holes are shown in
Table 20.
Table 19 Fireball Consequences (full bore ruptures)
Description Fireball
Mass
te
Fireball
duration
s
Jet
Release
Rate
kg/s
Fireball
Mass
te
Fireball
duration
s
Jet
Release
Rate
kg/s
Fireball
Mass
te
Fireball
duration
s
Jet
Release
Rate
kg/s
Prob
ability
345bar 345bar 345bar 144bar 144bar 144bar 100bar 100bar 100bar
Fireball
followed by
unimpeded
jet fire
97 18 3131 42.5 16 1563 25.9 14 1057 0.4
Fireball
followed by
impeded jet
fire
97 18 3131 42.5 16 1563 25.9 14 1057 0.4
Unimpeded
jet fire
N/A N/A 4631 N/A N/A 2208 N/A N/A 1473 0.1
Impeded jet
fire
N/A N/A 4631 N/A N/A 2208 N/A N/A 1473 0.1
Table 20 Jet Fire Consequences (holes). Distances to specified levels of thermal radiation (m)
for wind speed of 5m/s
Received
radiation
kW/m
2
Horizontal
jet flame
Horizontal
Angled jet
flame
Vertical
impacted
jet flame
Vertical jet
flame
15 61 36 23 (1)
10 65 42 34 27
5 73 55 48 42
2 89 78 73 67
JetFiresfromHoles.xls
(1) The highest predicted level reached at ground level is 11kW/m
2
January 2009
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The fireball and the jet fire modelling was then used to determine the thermal flux at various
distances. The fireball is spherical and the thermal radiation effects are concentric about the
release location. A jet flame is affected by the wind, and so does not produce concentric
thermal radiation values. Further the effects are different depending on the wind speed. For the
analysis, a wind speed of 5m/s was assumed.
The thermal radiation levels are converted into a thermal dose, by assuming that people
attempt to escape from the thermal radiation at a speed of 2.5m/s and can find shelter in a
maximum of 30s. Two escape distances were determined for each consequence type given in
Table 19. An example of the dose accumulation for the four different rupture modelling
assumptions is shown in Figure 15. Similar thermal dose calculations were carried out for the
jet fires from holes.
Figure 15 Accumulation of Thermal Dose
Dose Cumulation (1800TDU)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Time s
C
u
m
u
l
a
t
e
d
D
o
s
e
T
D
U
FB and Unimpeded Jet
Unimpeded Jet only
FB and Impeded Jet
Impeded Jet only
Pipetech sheet PipeTech144FBJetSumm
1.2 Impact Modelling
The impact modelling specifies envelopes which are then used with associated probabilities for
specified levels of harm (fatality for individual risk, casualty for societal risk). An inner envelope
was determined as the distance to the spontaneous ignition of wood (assuming the duration of
the fireball for the fireball cases and 30s for the jet flame cases). A second envelope was
determined by the escape distance to 1800 TDU, and a third envelope was determined by the
escape distance to 1000TDU. The potential for harm within these envelopes is different for
people indoors from those outdoors. The probabilities used in this analysis are shown in Table
21.
Table 21 Fatality and Casualty Probabilities
Envelope Indoor
Fatality
Outdoor
Fatality
Indoor
Casualty
Outdoor
Casualty
Within spontaneous ignition distance (1) 1 1 1 1
Between above and 1800TDU escape distance 0.3 (3) 0.6 (2) 0.6 (5) 1 (5)
Between 1800 and 1000 TDU escape distance 0 0.12 (4) Not used Not used
January 2009
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(1) Within this distance it is assumed that a building or clothing could ignite, and if not the
dose accumulated during attempted escape is sufficient to cause fatality.
(2) 1800TDU is considered to be 50% fatality, so the outer edge represents a maximum of
50% (as many people will find shelter in less than 30s). If the outer boundary is assumed
to represent 25% fatality and the inner boundary 100%, the average across the zone is
approximately 60%.
(3) People indoors are likely to be safe, but some people will attempt to escape. It is assumed
that 50% remain indoors and 50% try to escape with a 60% probability of fatality.
(4) The outer boundary represents the threshold of fatality and the inner boundary represents
25% fatality (see (2)). The average across the envelope is 12%.
(5) The casualty probability is assumed to be twice the fatality probability (up to a maximum of
unity).
References
Pipetech:
1. Oke, A., Mahgerefteh, H., Economou, I.G and Rykov, Y., 'A transient outflow model for
pipeline puncture', Chemical Engineering Science, 58(20), 4591-4604 (2003).
2. Mahgerefteh, H., Saha, P. and Economou, I.G, 'Modelling Fluid Phase Transition Effects
on the Dynamic Behaviour of ESDV', AIChE Journal, 46(5), 997 - 1006 (2000).
3. Mahgerefteh, H. and Wong, S.M.A , 'A Numerical Blowdown Simulation Incorporating
Cubic Equations of State', Computers in Chemical Engineering, 23(9), 1309 - 1317
(1999).
4. Mahgerefteh, H., Saha, P. and Economou, I.G, 'Fast Numerical Simulation For Full Bore
Rupture of Pressurised Pipelines', AIChE Journal, 45(6), 1191-1201 (1999).
5. Mahgerefteh, H., Saha, P. and Economou, I.G., 'A Study of the Dynamic Response of
Emergency Shut-Down Valves Following Full Bore Rupture of Long Pipelines',
Trans.I.Chem.E: Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 75(B4), 201-209 (1997).
6. http://www.homepages.ucl.ac.uk/~ucecm01/pipe-tech.html
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January 2009
Pipeline QRA
SEPIL
Page 71
DNV ENERGY
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Appendix VI Risk Tolerability Criteria
Risk Tolerability Criteria
Risk tolerability criteria are used in several EU countries (eg UK, Netherlands, Belgium) for
making decisions on development in the vicinity of major hazard facilities and for the siting of
new major hazard facilities. Ireland does not have a regime in place for such risk based
decision making. Two recognised pipeline codes (IGE/TD/1 Ed 4 and PD 8010-1 2004) contain
sections on risk criteria, and supplements have recently been issued. A summary is given
below.
IGE/TD/1 Edition 4 and IGEM/TD/2
IGE/TD/1 covers the design, construction, inspection, testing, operation and maintenance of
steel pipelines for the transmission of dry natural gas with or without odorisation at pressures up
to 100bar and at temperatures in the range -25 to 120C. It is primarily a UK code. Guidance on
risk assessment techniques and criteria is given in Appendix 3 of the code.
Risk measures covered are individual risk and societal risk. Individual risk is a measure of the
frequency at which an individual at a specified distance from the pipeline is expected to sustain
a specified level of harm from the realisation of specific hazards. The criteria used in the UK by
the UKHSE for the location of development control zones along the pipeline (which are based
on individual risk) are quoted in IGEM/TD/2. Societal risk is a measure of the risk due to the
frequency of accidents which may cause varying numbers of casualties. IGEM/TD/2 states that
the hazards associated with high pressure natural gas pipelines tend to be high consequence
low frequency events, and societal risk is generally the determining measure for the
acceptability of pipeline risk. A societal risk criterion based upon extensive application of
previous editions of the code to a pipeline system with a case length of 1.6km is given in
IGE/TD/1 (see Figure 16). The criterion was calculated from the residual risk to the average
rural area population density, i.e. 2.5 persons per hectare or three people per house. The curve
was generated using a thermal radiation level of 1800 TDU
3
(50% fatality) to assess population
effects. Risk predictions in the area below the curve are considered to be sufficiently low as to
be negligible, or at least acceptable for pipelines in both rural and suburban areas. For risk
predictions that are close to or above the criterion line, risk reduction measures may be
appropriate (depending on the cost and the benefit). The code suggests that where no risk
criteria have been defined that risk predictions are compared with the risks for pipelines which
conform to the IGE/TD/1 design requirements. As with any risk criteria, it is important that the
methodology and procedure used to determine the risks from the pipeline being assessed are
the same as the methodology and procedure used to establish the risks from the pipelines that
conform to IGE/TD/1.
3
TDU is thermal dose unit. The units are (kW/m
2
)
4/3
s.
January 2009
Pipeline QRA
SEPIL
Page 72
DNV ENERGY
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Figure 16 IGE Societal Risk Criterion
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SEPIL
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PD 8010-1:2004 and PD 8010-3:2009
The guidance given in this code on the design of pipelines for the transmission of methane is
based on the philosophy and guidance contained in IGE/TD/1, so there is considerable similarity
between the two codes. PD 8010 however covers five different hazard categories of fluids, one
of which is non toxic single phase natural gas. For pipelines that contain flammable or toxic gas,
and for which a risk assessment has been carried out, the code recommends that the distance
between a pipeline and an occupied building should be no less than the distance to the 1E-05
per year risk level. The code recommends that both the individual and the societal risk should
be determined, and the predicted risks should be compared with the UKHSE risk criteria. The
criteria for the tolerability of individual risk are given in terms of three broad categories: broadly
acceptable, tolerable and unacceptable. The broadly acceptable category covers individual
risk levels that may be considered insignificant, for which no further mitigation is required to
reduce the risk further. In the UK this category covers individual risk levels below one in one
million (1E-06) per year of receiving a dangerous dose or more
4
. The tolerable category
requires that mitigation measures are employed to reduce the risk levels down to the broadly
acceptable category. A risk is deemed to be tolerable once further risk reduction is
impracticable or requires action that is disproportionate to the level of risk and the degree of risk
reduction, i.e. the risk is as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP). The UKHSE has proposed
a risk level of one exposure to a dangerous dose in ten thousand per year (1E-04per year) as
the upper boundary of what may be considered tolerable. However, this level of risk is
considered likely to give rise to societal concerns and these can play a greater role in
determining the acceptability of a risk. The unacceptable category covers risks that are
unacceptable whatever the benefits. Mitigation would be required to reduce the risks.
Societal risk criteria recognise the need to ensure that major incidents that could lead to a
significant number of casualties in a single event occur far less frequently than those that could
lead to an individual casualty. As with IGE/TD/1, societal risk criteria are given in the form of a
line on a FN graph, which plots the cumulative frequency (F) per year of accidents causing N or
more casualties (see Figure 17), although the criterion line is different and is applied to a 1km
length. As with IGE/TD/1, the criterion line is applicable to assessments using 1800 TDU to give
a casualty. Also, if the calculated FN line falls below the FN criterion line, the risk levels to the
adjacent population are considered to be broadly acceptable. If the calculated FN curve is close
to or above the FN criterion line, then mitigation may be required to reduce the risks to broadly
acceptable levels if this is economically possible.
4
A dangerous dose causes severe distress to almost every one in the area, a substantial fraction of the exposed
population require medical attention, some people would be seriously injured, requiring prolonged treatment and
highly susceptible people could possibly be killed. The UK HSE defines a dangerous dose for thermal radiation as
1000 TDU.
January 2009
Pipeline QRA
SEPIL
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DNV ENERGY
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Figure 17 PD 8010 Societal Risk Criterion Line
January 2009
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SEPIL
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Appendix VII Safeguards taken by SEPIL to reduce Failure Frequencies
Failure Frequencies
In a QRA, the generic frequencies given in Appendix II should be modified to account for any
specific measures incorporated into the design and operation of the pipeline so that the analysis
is specific to the system. Measures taken by SEPIL to increase pipeline integrity are related to
the following threats:
Third party interference
Construction defect/material failure
Corrosion
Ground movement
Hot-tap made by error
Other and unknown
For the Corrib pipeline, the failure modes based on the EGIG database are given in the table
below. The population in the vicinity of the pipeline is only affected by ruptures (see Appendix
IV). Only two failure modes are important in this respect: third party activity and ground
movement, so only these have been changed from the generic frequencies. The failure
frequencies used for the Corrib specific pipeline analysis are given in Table 22.
Table 22 Failure Frequencies Corrib Pipeline (144 bar)
Failure Mode Reference
Section
Below
Base
Frequency
(per km per
year)
Source Probability of
rupture/hole/
pinhole
Frequency
rupture
(per km per
year)
Frequency
hole
(per km per
year)
Frequency
pinhole
(per km
per year)
Third party
interference
1.1 4.43E-09 PIE report in
Appendix III
0.13/0.07/0
.8 5.82E-10 3.27E-10
3.52E-09
Construction
defect/material
failure
1.2 1E-05 EGIG Figure
25 for
pipelines
constructed
after 1984
0/0.5/0.5
0 5E-06
5E-06
Corrosion 1.3 1E-05 EGIG Figure
22 for
pipelines
constructed
after 1994
0/0/1
0 0
1E-05
Ground
movement
1.4 Negligible SEPIL
Design 0 0 0
Hot-tap made
by error
1.5 7E-06 EGIG Figure
26 for
pipelines 20
diameter
0/0/1
0 0 0
Other and
unknown
1.6 2.5E-05 EGIG Figure
18
0/0.15/0.85
0 3.7E-06
2.13E-05
Total 5.82E-10 8.75E-06 4.33E-05
The mitigating measures taken by SEPIL which will increase the pipeline integrity and/or reduce
the likelihood of failure are given below.
January 2009
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SEPIL
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Third Party Interference
The main mitigation is the pipeline wall thickness. The effect of this to give a specific failure
frequency is covered in Appendix III. In addition the pipeline route will be well marked and
landowners have been consulted to ensure awareness. Concrete slabs will cover the pipeline at
road crossings. These are designed and engineered to provide sufficient levels of protection
from, for example, uncontrolled excavation by 3rd parties. The pipeline is protected from a
thermal incident by being buried; only a small section is exposed above ground and this is
protected from the effects of flame impingement by passive fire protection and the significant
wall thickness.
Construction Defect/Material Failure
The Corrib onshore pipeline is manufactured from a high grade carbon steel (grade DNV OS-
F101 Grade 485 MPa) with SMYS = 485 MPa, and SMTS = 565 MPa.
The various pressure levels are as follows:
Factual (material/pipe properties)
Failure (SMTS) 602 bar
Yield (SMYS) 515 bar
Pressure pipe is subjected to (manufacturing and construction):
Testing 504 bar (mill strength test, 24 hrs leak/strength test after construction).
Design (f=0.3) 144 bar
Operation period 100 bar (approx)
During the manufacturing of the linepipe in the plate/pipe mill and construction in the field,
extensive testing takes place as part of the Quality Control to make sure no defects are present
in the pipeline. The quality control/assurance activities will undergo an independent audit as
recommended by Advantica.
If, in the unlikely event that cracks are hidden in the wall of the pipe and they are of a nature
such that they will grow and result in failure, then this should take place during the hydrostatic
testing of the individual pipes in the mill or during the field test after construction (both tests will
be executed at a pressure of 504 bar, the field test for a minimum of 24 hours). If no failure
takes place at a test pressure of 504 bar, then at the lower operational pressures the chance is
negligible that these could result in failure during the life time operation of the pipeline. A
successful pressure test in the field, will mean that there will be no cracks left equal to or greater
than 103 mm (critical crack length according to the PIE report for an operating pressure of 345
bar).
Corrosion
The Pipeline Integrity Management Scheme (PIMS) will include a corrosion management
strategy covering both internal and external corrosion control. Continuous injection of corrosion
inhibitor will take place to suppress internal corrosion of the pipeline. The wall thickness design
includes a corrosion allowance. Internal corrosion has been assessed by the Technical
Authority of Shell Aberdeen, ref report COR-39-SH-0011 Internal Corrosion Rate Assessment.
The conclusion drawn was that for the field life of the pipeline the internal corrosion will not
exceed the design corrosion allowance. The structural integrity of the pipeline due to internal
corrosion will not be affected.
January 2009
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SEPIL
Page 77
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The 3 layer Polypropylene coating and an Impressed Current System will prevent the external
corrosion of the pipeline. During the operation of the pipeline, regular inspections will be carried
out, as detailed in the PIMS, to confirm that the measures taken to prevent corrosion are
effective. Control measures focus on monitoring for the occurrence / extent of internal corrosion
e.g. on line monitoring of corrosion at an offshore corrosion monitoring spool (section of
pipeline), analysis of residual corrosion inhibitor composition, periodic external wall thickness
measurements and internal defect surveys.
The corrosion inhibitor system will be monitored for oxygen content. Particle content, which is
expected to be negligible, is also monitored. Erosion is not seen as a significant issue.
Ground Movement
For the modified route, pipeline construction method statements have been developed such that
the pipeline will not be affected by ground slides or flooding erosion. The following are the main
principles:
in farmland (minimal elevation, horizontal trace) standard buried pipeline construction
methods will be applied
for the Sruwaddacon bay crossings a trenchless technique is considered, first a sleeving
pipe will be installed, min 6-7 m below the Sruwaddacon bay bottom (micro tunnelling
technique) into which the gas pipeline and the umbilicals, water outfall pipe, fibre optic cable
and instrument cable (bundled) will be pulled
in peatland, the pipeline will be situated within a stone road. This stone road will be
constructed by first removing the peat and then placing gravel quarry run material on the
underlying mineral soil. This is considered to be a highly stable method that mitigates any
issues associated with peat instability and has been successfully applied for the construction
of the Mayo-Galway pipeline (built to deliver the Corrib gas to the BGE pipeline grid). The
geotechnical stability of the stone road has been verified in the stone road stability report
(which is to be included in the EIS for the new application).
Based on these pipeline construction methods, there is negligible risk of pipeline failure due to
ground slides or flooding erosion.
Hot tap made in error
There is only one gas pipeline, so there cannot be a mistake when carrying out a hot tap.
Other and unknown
Lightning:
Although this cannot be excluded, the chance that this will result in a pinhole failure is very low.
NAM in the Netherlands (Shell jv) has operated pipelines since the 1960s with a total length in
excess of 2000km (giving approximately 100,000 km years of experience). There is only one
recorded case of a leak as a result of lightning.
Design error:
The design has been subject to reviews a number of times. The relatively high test pressure will
make sure that no significant design error will be carried into the operational phase of the
pipeline.
January 2009
Pipeline QRA
SEPIL
Page 78
DNV ENERGY
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PIMS:
SEPIL has developed a Pipeline Integrity Management Scheme. This scheme is based on the
extensive experience of Shell operating pipelines in Europe over the last 40-50 years. It covers
the offshore and onshore pipelines and umbilicals and water outfall pipe, fibre optic cable and
signal cable.
The PIMS addresses the lifetime safeguarding of mechanical integrity through the mitigation of
all threats that can compromise pipeline integrity and the monitoring of the effectiveness of risk
barriers, and as such considers:
- process safety, e.g. operating procedures, overpressure protection, emergency
procedures and leak detection (thorough training and supervision of personnel supported
by up to date procedures explaining the work tasks and safe systems of work (permit to
work system) to co-ordinate activities and ensure appropriate levels of control.
- mechanical integrity, including general integrity, (e.g. fatigue, overstress, mechanical
damage and threats from peat instability and other geotechnical instability), corrosion
management, (e.g. corrosion and erosion), and flow assurance, (e.g. scaling, surge,
slugging and hydrate formation); and
- management of change, (e.g. design change, modifications and set points, hot work
such as welding or grinding at the landfall installation will be carried out under strict
procedural controls and a permit system).
Maintenance:
The PIMS will make sure that maintenance takes place when required and necessary follow up
actions are taken.
Operations:
The PIMS provides a key control measure designed to provide an effective and systematic
means of managing the safe operation of the pipeline system and of ensuring compliance with
Irish legislation and conditions of consent.
Leak Detection:
A mass balance leak detection system is planned to enable detection of unaccounted
hydrocarbons.
January 2009
Pipeline QRA
SEPIL
Page 79
DNV ENERGY
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Appendix VIII Pipeline Route for FN Calculation
The 1.6km length was taken between house 7 and house 24. The 1km length was taken from
near house 12 to house 24.
Note that the houses numbered 22 and 23 will be removed from use with the expressed
agreement from the owners
January 2009
Pipeline QRA
SEPIL
Page 80
DNV ENERGY
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P:\Consulting Projects\SHELL\Pipeline\CorribPipelineReportRev3a.doc
Appendix IX Risk Transects and Societal Risks
Transects for individual risk are given below for a number of different assumed operating
regimes.
Figure 18 Pipeline Risk Transect 100 bar, EGIG Frequencies
Risk Transects Pipeline 100bar IGE
1.00E-10
1.00E-09
1.00E-08
1.00E-07
1.00E-06
1.00E-05
1.00E-04
-300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300
Distance m
R
i
s
k
o
f
F
a
t
a
l
i
t
y
p
e
r
y
e
a
r
Outdoors
Indoors
Resident
PipelinePredsIGE/Trans100EGIG-IGE
Figure 19 Landfall Valve Installation Risk Transect 100 bar.
Risk Transects LVI 100bar IGE
1.00E-09
1.00E-08
1.00E-07
1.00E-06
1.00E-05
1.00E-04
-300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300
Distance m
R
i
s
k
o
f
F
a
t
a
l
i
t
y
p
e
r
y
e
a
r
Outdoors
Indoors
Resident
PipelinePredsIGE/Trans100EGIG-IGE
January 2009
Pipeline QRA
SEPIL
Page 81
DNV ENERGY
Reference to part of this report which may lead to misinterpretation is not
permissible
Document id.:
P:\Consulting Projects\SHELL\Pipeline\CorribPipelineReportRev3a.doc
Figure 20 Pipeline Risk Transect 144 bar, EGIG Frequencies.
Risk Transects Pipeline 144bar IGE
1.00E-10
1.00E-09
1.00E-08
1.00E-07
1.00E-06
1.00E-05
1.00E-04
-300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300
Distance m
R
i
s
k
o
f
F
a
t
a
l
i
t
y
p
e
r
y
e
a
r
Outdoors
Indoor FB
Resident
PipelinePredsIGE/Trans144EGIG-IGE
Figure 21 Landfall Valve Installation Risk Transect 144 bar.
Risk Transects LVI 144bar IGE
1.00E-09
1.00E-08
1.00E-07
1.00E-06
1.00E-05
1.00E-04
-300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300
Distance m
R
i
s
k
o
f
F
a
t
a
l
i
t
y
p
e
r
y
e
a
r
Outdoors
Indoor FB
Resident
PipelinePredsIGE/Trans144EGIG-IGE
January 2009
Pipeline QRA
SEPIL
Page 82
DNV ENERGY
Reference to part of this report which may lead to misinterpretation is not
permissible
Document id.:
P:\Consulting Projects\SHELL\Pipeline\CorribPipelineReportRev3a.doc
Figure 22 Pipeline Risk Transect 100 bar and 144 bar Corrib Frequencies
Risk Transects Corrib Pipeline IGE
1.00E-13
1.00E-12
1.00E-11
1.00E-10
1.00E-09
1.00E-08
-300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300
Distance m
R
i
s
k
o
f
F
a
t
a
l
i
t
y
p
e
r
y
e
a
r
Resident 144bar
Resident 100bar
PipelinePredsIGE/Trans144EGIG-IGE
Figure 23 Landfall Valve Installation Risk Transect 345 bar upstream/144 bar downstream
Risk Transects Landfall Valve 345/144 IGE
1.00E-10
1.00E-09
1.00E-08
1.00E-07
1.00E-06
1.00E-05
1.00E-04
-400 -200 0 200 400
Distance m
R
i
s
k
o
f
F
a
t
a
l
i
t
y
p
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r
y
e
a
r
At 345/144 f or 1 year
At 345/144 f or 10 days
100 bar
PipelinePredsIGE/BV345andtotal
January 2009
Pipeline QRA
SEPIL
Page 83
DNV ENERGY
Reference to part of this report which may lead to misinterpretation is not
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Document id.:
P:\Consulting Projects\SHELL\Pipeline\CorribPipelineReportRev3a.doc
Figure 24 Pipeline Risk Transect 100 bar and 144 bar Corrib Frequencies for person who spends
8 hours per day outdoors, 16 hours per day indoors.
1.00E-13
1.00E-12
1.00E-11
1.00E-10
1.00E-09
1.00E-08
1.00E-07
-300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300
Distance m
R
i
s
k
o
f
F
a
t
a
l
i
t
y
p
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r
y
e
a
r
OutRes 144bar
OutRes 100bar
PipelinePredsIGE/Trans144EGIG-IGE
Figure 25 Comparison of Risk Transects from Different Analyses.
Risk Transects
1.00E-12
1.00E-11
1.00E-10
1.00E-09
1.00E-08
1.00E-07
1.00E-06
1.00E-05
0 100 200 300 400
Distance from pipeline m
R
i
s
k
p
e
r
y
e
a
r
JP Kenny 120 bar
Advantica 144bar
DNV 100bar Corrib IGE
Advantica 120bar 1% fatality
DNV 144 bar Corrib IGE
DNV 144bar EGIG
DNV 100bar EGIG
PipelinePredsIGE/Trans100EGIG-IGE
January 2009
Pipeline QRA
SEPIL
Page 84
DNV ENERGY
Reference to part of this report which may lead to misinterpretation is not
permissible
Document id.:
P:\Consulting Projects\SHELL\Pipeline\CorribPipelineReportRev3a.doc
Figure 26 Societal Risk (1km length)
FN Curve (PD 8010) (IGE)
1.00E-13
1.00E-12
1.00E-11
1.00E-10
1.00E-09
1.00E-08
1.00E-07
1.00E-06
1.00E-05
1.00E-04
1 10 100
Number of Casualties
C
u
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y
PD 8010 Criterion
EGIG 144 IGE
Corrib 144 bar IGE
EGIG 100 IGE
Corrib 100 bar IGE
PipelinepredsIGE/FN-IGE
Figure 27 Societal Risk (1.6km length)
FN Curve (IGE)
1.00E-13
1.00E-12
1.00E-11
1.00E-10
1.00E-09
1.00E-08
1.00E-07
1.00E-06
1.00E-05
1.00E-04
1 10 100
Number of Casualties
C
u
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y
IGE\TD\1 FN Criterion (from Ed
4, Fig 20)
EGIG 100 1km IGE
Corrib 100 bar 1km IGE
EGIG 144 1km IGE
Corrib 144 bar 1km IGE
PipelinepredsIGE/FN-IGE
DNV Energy
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Appendix Q8
Recommendations arising from Independent Safety Review
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Appendix Q9
Onshore Hydrostatic Pressure Testing Report
Shell Exploration and Production Ireland
Limited
CORRIB FIELD DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
REPORT
PROJECT No.
052377.01
ONSHORE HYDROSTATIC PRESSURE TESTING
REPORT
REF
No OF SHEETS
20
DOCUMENT No
OFFICE CODE
05
PROJECT No
2377
AREA
01
DIS
P
TYPE
3
NUMBER
020
03 23/05/07 SEPIL Comments Included KJG BD JG JG
02 25/04/07 Second Draft KJG FEB JG JG
01 17/11/06 First Draft KJG POC JG JG
REV DATE DESCRIPTION BY CHK ENG PM CLIENT
CORRIB FIELD DEVELOPMENT
PROJECT
Onshore Hydrostatic Pressure
Testing Report
Page 2 of 20
Document Comment Sheet Page 2 of 20
Date of Review: Reviewed by: Response by: Lead Engineer: Project Engineer:
Areas of Particular Concern:
No. Review Finding Project Response LE
Distribution: Project File, Lead Engineer, Project Engineer Manager, Project Manager
CORRIB FIELD DEVELOPMENT
PROJECT
Onshore Hydrostatic Pressure
Testing Report
Page 3 of 20
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................. 4
1.1 Overview............................................................................................................................. 4
1.2 Purpose of Document ....................................................................................................... 4
1.3 Abbreviations..................................................................................................................... 4
2 HYDROSTATIC TEST PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIPELINE................................ 5
2.1 Original Pipeline Design Pressure and Wall Thickness................................................ 5
2.2 TAG Requirement .............................................................................................................. 5
2.3 Pipeline Design Code Comparison.................................................................................. 5
2.4 Discussion of Results of Code Calculations.................................................................. 5
2.4.1 Original Hydrostatic Pressure Test Codes ........................................................ 5
2.4.2 I.S.328:2003........................................................................................................... 6
2.4.3 I.S. EN 14161:2004................................................................................................ 7
2.4.4 PD 8010-1:2004 ..................................................................................................... 7
2.4.5 Mill Hydrostatic Test Pressure............................................................................ 7
2.5 Code for Hydrostatic Testing........................................................................................... 9
2.5.1 Introduction........................................................................................................... 9
2.5.2 Mill Test Pressure................................................................................................. 9
2.5.3 Advantica Recommendations............................................................................. 9
2.5.4 TAG Recommendations....................................................................................... 9
3 CONCLUSIONS............................................................................................................................ 10
4 RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................................................................ 11
5 REFERENCES.............................................................................................................................. 12
APPENDIX 1 EXTRACTS FROM REFERENCED CODES AND STANDARDS FOR TESTING
LIMITS.................................................................................................................. 13
APPENDIX 2 RANGE OF MILL TEST PRESSURES................................................................ 20
CORRIB FIELD DEVELOPMENT
PROJECT
Onshore Hydrostatic Pressure
Testing Report
Page 4 of 20
1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Overview
Shell Exploration and Production Ireland Limited have requested J P Kenny Limited to evaluate
and develop a basis for independent hydrostatic pressure testing of the 9km onshore pipeline
section from the landfall to the gas treatment terminal.
A Corrib Gas Pipeline Safety Review was undertaken by Advantica on behalf of the Minister for
Communications, Marine and National Resources. TAG (Technical Advisory Group) subsequently
made additional recommendations to these findings. The study has been based principally on
these additional recommendations, which are specifically:
The onshore section should be pressure tested in accordance with I.S. 328 Code of
Practice for Gas Transmission Pipelines and Pipeline Installations.
Limit the design pressure to 144 barg and use a design factor of 0.3.
This document also sets out to consider the hydrostatic test pressure requirements of TAG when
compared to other relevant codes and standards.
1.2 Purpose of Document
The purpose of this document is to:
Review test pressures defined by TAG when compared with recognised codes and
Shell practice.
1.3 Abbreviations
API American Petroleum Institute
ASME American Society of Mechanical Engineers
BS British Standard
BGE Bord Gais Eireann
EEI Enterprise Energy Ireland Limited
EN European Norms
ESD Emergency Shutdown
JPK J P Kenny Limited
I.S. Irish Standard
LAT Lowest Astronomical Tide
MAOP Maximum Allowable Operating Pressure
NPTC Non Pressure Tested Closure
SEPIL Shell Exploration and Production Ireland Limited
SMYS Specified Minimum Yield Strength
TAG Technical Advisory Group
w.t. wall thickness
CORRIB FIELD DEVELOPMENT
PROJECT
Onshore Hydrostatic Pressure
Testing Report
Page 5 of 20
2 HYDROSTATIC TEST PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIPELINE
2.1 Original Pipeline Design Pressure and Wall Thickness
The original basis for the design of the pipeline was carried out in accordance with BS 8010 Part
2. Pipelines on land: design, construction and installation, Section 2.8 Steel for oil and gas. The
design pressure was 345 barg, the diameter was 20 inch and steel grade was API 5L X70. The
wall thickness resulting from the hoop stress was 25.1mm plus 1 mm corrosion allowance plus
1mm manufacturing tolerance giving a total of 27.1 mm.
2.2 TAG Requirement
Advantica undertook an Independent Safety Review of the Onshore Section of the proposed
Corrib Gas Pipeline. TAG reviewed the recommendations of Advantica, with respect to
hydrostatic pressure testing and stated that I.S.328: 2003 should be followed. This code
differentiates between pipelines designed to operate above or equal/below a design factor of 0.3.
The nominal wall thickness derived by applying a design pressure of 144 barg and design factor
of 0.3 to this code is 26.1mm. This is inclusive of 1mm allowance (Code requirement) to
compensate for pipe manufacturers under-thickness tolerance. An additional 1mm is added to
provide corrosion allowance. Hence total required wall thickness is 27.1mm.
As a result of the above TAG recommendations, hydrostatic test pressure calculations were
undertaken. These results are outlined below.
2.3 Pipeline Design Code Comparison
The following codes were evaluated:
Onshore Standard DNV OS-F-101, 2000. This was the standard to which the pipe was
originally supplied.
IS EN 14161 Petroleum and Natural Gas Industries Pipeline and Transportation Systems
(ISO 13623:2000 Modified)
I.S.328: 2003 Code of Practice for Gas Transmission Pipelines and Pipeline Installations
(Edition 3.1)
PD 8010-1:2004 Code of Practice for Pipelines Part 1: Steel Pipelines on Land.
BS 8010 Part 2. Pipelines on land: design, construction and installation, Section 2.8 Steel
for oil and gas
The requirements stated in each code are repeated in Appendix 1 for information.
The results of applying each of these codes on hydrostatic test calculations are shown in
Table 2-2 Comparative Code Results for Hydrostatic Test Pressures and discussed below.
2.4 Discussion of Results of Code Calculations
2.4.1 Original Hydrostatic Pressure Test Codes
a) Offshore Section DNV OS-F-101, 2000
The test pressure that satisfies the system pressure test requirement based on the referenced
DNV code is 360.25 barg measured at LAT, where the lowest wall thickness is 21 mm. (For the
system test pressure an allowable hoop stress of 96% SMYS is allowed).
CORRIB FIELD DEVELOPMENT
PROJECT
Onshore Hydrostatic Pressure
Testing Report
Page 6 of 20
Table 2-1 below shows the wall thickness selected for KP ranges along the route.
Table 2-1 - Selected Nominal Wall Thickness over length of Offshore Pipeline
KP Range
Selected Nominal Wall
Thickness (mm)
0 to 4.1 27.1
4.1 to 12 21.0
12 to 17.7 22.5
17.7 to 26.4 24.7
26.4 to 65.7 22.0
65.7 to 81.9 22.5
81.9 to 83.4 27.1
b) Onshore Section BS 8010
The onshore test pressure for this section was based on a nominal wall thickness of 25.1mm
(calculated for 0.72 design factor). The calculated system test pressure was 435.4 barg based on
90% SMYS at a LAT of 2.5m.
The nominated wall thickness for the onshore section is 27.1mm (KP range 83.4 to 93 km).
2.4.2 I.S.328:2003
Reference was made to Section 9 - Testing, and in particular 9.4.4 - Test Limits.
The Testing section of the code differentiates between pipelines designed to operate at a design
factor (f) not exceeding 0.3 and pipelines designed to operate at a design factor exceeding 0.3.
The nominal wall thickness is greater than the required thickness for a design factor of 0.3 and
hence in accordance with the code, the minimum pipeline test pressure required is 1.5 times the
design pressure. This results in a minimum test pressure of 216 barg. For this condition, the pre-
test pressure is an additional 10% of this value, which is 238 barg.
The maximum pipeline test pressure outlined in the code is based on pipelines designated to
operate at a design factor exceeding 0.3.
The code provides guidance for limiting the maximum pipeline test pressure in the event that the
calculated test pressure results in overstressing of valves and other fittings. In these
circumstances, it is recommended that the test pressure should not exceed twice the design
pressure that in this instance is 288 barg.
Otherwise, the maximum mainline hydrostatic test pressure of 523 barg (105% of SMYS) has
been derived for this code, and a value of 575 barg (10% of hydrostatic test pressure) for pre-
tested pipes (which is equivalent to 111% SMYS).
These test pressures have been derived using the nominal wall thickness (26.1mm), as required
by the code. The nominal wall thickness is the design wall thickness (25.1mm) plus an allowance
for pipe manufacturers underthickness (1mm).
TAG has recommended that this code be adopted when determining hydrostatic test values.
CORRIB FIELD DEVELOPMENT
PROJECT
Onshore Hydrostatic Pressure
Testing Report
Page 7 of 20
2.4.3 I.S. EN 14161:2004
The relevant section of this code is Section 11 - Testing, which refers in turn to Section 6.7
Pressure Test Requirements. The pipeline hydrostatic test pressure of 187 barg is the result of a
factor of 1.25 being applied to functions of design pressure, wall thickness and corrosion
allowance.
These test pressures have been derived using the specified minimum wall thickness 25.1mm and
is not inclusive of allowances for pipe manufacturers underthickness or corrosion.
This hydrostatic test pressure is the lowest value compared to the other Codes.
2.4.4 PD 8010-1:2004
Reference was made in this code to Section 11.5.2 Hydrostatic Strength Test.
The standard hydrostatic strength test was based on the lower of a pressure of not less than
150% of the MAOP or a pressure that produces a hoop stress level of equivalent to 90% SMYS.
In this case the former condition applied, resulting in a test pressure of 216 barg (based on a
worst case, where MAOP equals the design pressure of 144 barg. The code recommends the
standard hydrostatic strength test be used in cases where significant cyclic pressures and/or
increases in the pipeline MAOP are not anticipated in the future operation of the pipeline.
The high-level hydrostatic strength test for the mainline pipeline is 431 to 503 barg (90% to
105% of SMYS respectively).
For pre-tested pipes, the pre-test pressure should be at least 1.05 times the test pressure
appropriate to the section into which the pipe is to be installed. Hence if the standard hydrostatic
strength test is adopted then the pre-test pressure is 227 barg. If the high-level hydrostatic
strength test is adopted then the pre-test pressure is in the range of 453 to 528 barg
The wall thickness taken for these calculations is the minimum wall thickness (25.1mm), which in
accordance with the code excludes corrosion allowance and mill tolerance.
When compared to all of other codes, these are the most onerous values for hydrostatic testing.
2.4.5 Mill Hydrostatic Test Pressure
The line pipe was purchased to DNV OS F-101, 2000. The project was supplied by the Client
with the results of the hydrostatic test, a copy of which is shown in Appendix 2. The formula used
for determining the hydrostatic pressure test is stated in DNV OS-F101 Section 6.0 Clause
E1100, Formula 6.2. The mill hydrostatic test pressure results show that for a nominal wall
thickness of 27.1mm the hydrostatic test pressure was 504 barg minimum and 511 barg
maximum.
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CORRIB FIELD DEVELOPMENT
PROJECT
Onshore Hydrostatic Pressure
Testing Report
Page 9 of 20
2.5 Code for Hydrostatic Testing
2.5.1 Introduction
The application of a suitable design code for undertaking a hydrostatic test is recommended from
reports undertaken by Advantica (Ref 1) and TAG (Ref 2). The recommendations from each of
the reports are outlined below. However, to put the test requirements in context, details of the mill
hydrostatic test results are shown in Appendix 2. It was shown that the lowest value for the Mill
test pressure was 504barg.
2.5.2 Mill Test Pressure
The pipe had been designed and purchased to DNV OS-F-101 2000. The results showed that for
a nominal wall thickness of 27.1mm, the minimum recorded hydrostatic pressure test pressure
was 504 barg.
2.5.3 Advantica Recommendations
Advanticas report in relation to hydrostatic pressure testing stated that hydrostatic pressure
testing should be undertaken in accordance with their recommended code, PD 8010. This makes
provision for testing to be carried out to either standard or high level testing. The details are
outlined in Table 2-2 and discussed in Section 2.4.4.
2.5.4 TAG Recommendations
TAG undertook a review of the Advantica report and further recommended that I.S. 328 be
adopted for hydrostatic pressure testing.
As can be seen from Table 2-2, (and discussed in Section 2.4.2), the code offers a minimum to
maximum range of pressures, from 216 barg to 523 barg respectively.
The key point to note is that for a design factor of 0.3 (which has been adopted for the project) the
test pressure requirement in accordance with I.S. 328 is 216 barg.
CORRIB FIELD DEVELOPMENT
PROJECT
Onshore Hydrostatic Pressure
Testing Report
Page 10 of 20
3 CONCLUSIONS
The recommendations of TAG require that I.S.328 be adopted for hydrostatic pressure testing.
The maximum potential test pressure when applying pressure limits for the main hydrostatic
pressure test in accordance with I.S.328 code is based on designing the pipeline with a design
factor of 0.72. This results in a maximum hydrostatic test pressure of 523 barg. However, it is not
proposed to test to this level since it falls outside the design factor of 0.3 determined by the
project.
It is the intention to obtain the benefits of high level testing as outlined in the Advantica Report
through adopting as rigorous a test of the pipeline as possible. To this end it is concluded that the
mill test pressure value of 504 barg is taken as the maximum test pressure for this hydrostatic
pressure test.
This test pressure is to be taken at the lowest point in the pipeline.
The benefits of this approach are:
It satisfies I.S.328 code requirements
The mill test has proved the pipe against a verifiable code under test conditions.
By testing to 101% SMYS (I.S.328) it will ensure that any remaining defects are
considerably smaller than would fail at operating pressures.
The potential for the pipe to yield and undergo plastic deformation is greatly reduced for
testing at 101% SMYS, when compared to the upper limit of 105% SMYS (I.S.328). This
is because tolerances on high strength steel wall thickness are now much tighter than in
the past and therefore the margin of safety when pressure tests exceed the SMYS is
reduced.
Testing to 101% SMYS is significantly greater than I.S.328 Code requirements for 0.3
design factor, and consequently provides a high degree of confidence in the integrity of
the pipeline.
At all crossings, the same test pressure as for the mainline onshore pipeline will be adopted. The
crossing section will be tested prior to installation. Subsequently, once the section has been
welded in the mainline, the installation will form part of the main test.
CORRIB FIELD DEVELOPMENT
PROJECT
Onshore Hydrostatic Pressure
Testing Report
Page 11 of 20
4 RECOMMENDATIONS
As a result of thorough consideration of the hydrostatic pressure testing requirements outlined in
relevant Pipeline Design Codes and by following the recommendations of TAG, it is
recommended that:
Following pipeline construction, the maximum hydrostatic test pressure for the onshore
mainline section of the pipeline should be 504 barg at the lowest point.
Prior to installation of crossings, the line pipe section be pre-tested to 504 barg for a 4 hour
period.
CORRIB FIELD DEVELOPMENT
PROJECT
Onshore Hydrostatic Pressure
Testing Report
Page 12 of 20
5 REFERENCES
1. Advantica Report Independent Safety Review of the Onshore Section of the Proposed
Corrib Gas Pipeline Report Number R 8391.
2. TAG Report of the Corrib Technical Advisory Group to Minister Dempsey on an
appropriate Inspection and Monitoring Regime for the Corrib Project.
CORRIB FIELD DEVELOPMENT
PROJECT
Onshore Hydrostatic Pressure
Testing Report
Page 13 of 20
APPENDIX 1 EXTRACTS FROM REFERENCED CODES AND STANDARDS FOR TESTING
LIMITS
1-1 DNV-OS-F101:2000 SUBMARINE PIPELINE SYSTEMS. SECTION 6, E1100.
1-2 BS 8010 PART 2 PIPELINES ON LAND:DESIGN CONSTRUCTION AND
INSTALLATION, SECTION 2.8 STEEL FOR OIL AND GAS
1-3 I.S. 328:2003 IRISH STANDARD - CODE OF PRACTICE FOR GAS
TRANSMISSION PIPELINES AND PIPELINE
INSTALLATIONS SECTION 9.4.4.
1-4 I.S. EN 14161:2004 IRISH STANDARD PETROLEUM AND NATURAL GAS
INDUSTRIES - PIPELINE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS
(ISO13623:2000 MODIFIED).
1-5 PD 8010-1:2004 BRITISH STANDARD PUBLISHED DOCUMENT - CODE
OF PRACTICE FOR PIPELINES PART 1:STEEL
PIPELINES ON LAND.
CORRIB FIELD DEVELOPMENT
PROJECT
Onshore Hydrostatic Pressure
Testing Report
Page 14 of 20
1-1 DNV-OS-F101:2000 SUBMARINE PIPELINE SYSTEMS. SECTION 6, E1100
E 1100 Mill pressure test
1101 Each length of linepipe shall be hydrostatically tested, unless the alternative approach
described in 1108 is used.
1102 For pipes with reduced utilisation of the wall thickness, the test pressure (P
h
) may be
reduced as permitted in Section 5D 400.
1103 The test pressure (P
h
) for all other pipes shall, in situations where the seal is made on the
inside or the outside of the linepipe surface, be conducted at the lowest value obtained by utilising the
following formulae:
P
h
= 2
.
t
min
.
min [SYMS
.
0.96;SMTS
.
0.84] (6.2)
D - t
min
CORRIB FIELD DEVELOPMENT
PROJECT
Onshore Hydrostatic Pressure
Testing Report
Page 15 of 20
1-2 BS 8010 PART 2 PIPELINES ON LAND:DESIGN CONSTRUCTION AND INSTALLATION,
SECTION 2.8 STEEL FOR OIL AND GAS
8.4 Test pressure
8.4.1 Hydrostatic pressure test
The hydrostatic test pressure in any part of the system under test should be not less than the lower of:
a) 150% of the maximum operating; or
b) that pressure which will induce a hoop stress as defined in 2.9.2 of 90% of the specified
minimum yield stress of the pipeline material in the system under test.
NOTE Provided that in no case should the hydrostatic test pressure be less than the sum of the
maximum operating pressure plus any allowances for surge pressure and other variations likely to be
experienced by the pipeline system during normal operation.
The pressure at the point of application should be such that the test pressure as calculated in this
clause is generated at the highest point in the section under test. The additional static head at any
point in the section should not cause a hoop stress in excess of the specified minimum yield stress of
the material at that point.
CORRIB FIELD DEVELOPMENT
PROJECT
Onshore Hydrostatic Pressure
Testing Report
Page 16 of 20
1-3 I.S. 328:2003 IRISH STANDARD - CODE OF PRACTICE FOR GAS TRANSMISSION
PIPELINES AND PIPELINE INSTALLATIONS SECTION 9.4.4
9.4.4 Test limits
Where reference is made to a test limit being a percentage of specified minimum yield strength, the
required pressure is calculated from the following formula:
P
t
= 2t
n
sf
1
10 D
Where:
P
t
is the test pressure required in bar
t
n
is the normal wall thickness in mm
s is the specified minimum yield strength (smys) in N/mm
D is the outside diameter of pipe in mm
f
1
is the percentage of smys as specified in 9.4.4.1 and 9.4.4.2
9.4.4.1 Pressure limits for main test
9.4.4.1.1 Pipelines designed to operate at a design factor f not exceeding 0,30
Minimum test pressure shall be one and a half times design pressure. Maximum test pressures shall be
as specified for pipelines designed to operate at a design factor exceeding 0,30.
9.4.4.1.2 Pipelines designated to operate at a design factor f exceeding 0,30
Test pressure shall be as specified below for seam welded, seamless and electric resistance welded
(ERW) pipe. In some circumstances however, this may result in excessively high test pressures,
particularly in smaller diameter pipelines which may result in over stressing of valves and other fittings.
In these circumstances it is recommended that the test pressure should not exceed twice the design
pressure.
9.4.4.1.2.1 Seam welded pipe
Pressures shall be raised so that the measured or computed value at the lowest point of the section of
pipeline being tested reaches the value at which the first occurring of one of the following three
conditions is achieved:
a) 105% smys;
b) half slope (see 9.4.5.2);
c) the lowest of the maximum pressure levels attained in the pre-installation testing of any pipe
length included in the section.
If half slope occurs before 100% smys the test shall be stopped for investigation, which should include a
detailed check of test procedure and measuring equipment to ensure accuracy, followed by check on
pipe mechanical properties. Should no defect or leak be found the results should be considered
acceptable provided that the computed or measured pressure at the highest point on the line shall not
be lower than the pressure required to produce 100% smys at the lowest point on the line less 5,8 bar.
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9.4.4.2 Pressure limits for pre-installation testing
For operation at a design factor not exceeding 0,30
The test pressure chosen shall exceed by 10% the test pressure selected for the main test (in
accordance with 9.4.4.1).
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1-4 I.S. EN 14161:2004 IRISH STANDARD PETROLEUM AND NATURAL GAS
INDUSTRIES - PIPELINE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS
(ISO13623:2000 MODIFIED)
6.7 Pressure test requirements
6.7.3 Pressure levels and test durations
The pipeline system shall be strength-tested, after stabilization of temperatures and surges from
pressurizing operations, for a minimum period of 1 h with a pressure at any point in the system of at
least:
- 1,25 x MAOP for pipelines on land; and
- 1,25 x (MAOP minus the external hydrostatic pressure) for offshore pipelines.
If applicable, the strength test pressure shall be multiplied by the following ratios:
- the ratio of
y
at test temperature divided by the derated value for
y
at the design temperature in
case of a lower specified minimum yield strength
y
at the design temperature than exists during
testing; and
- the ratio of t
min
plus corrosion allowance divided by t
min
in case of corrosion allowance.
The strength test pressure for pipelines conveying category C and D fluids at locations subject to
infrequent human activity and without permanent habitation may be reduced to a pressure of not less
than 1,20 times MAOP, provided the maximum incidental pressure cannot exceed 1,05 times MAOP.
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1-5 PD 8010-1:2004 BRITISH STANDARD PUBLISHED DOCUMENT - CODE OF PRACTICE
FOR PIPELINES PART 1:STEEL PIPELINES ON LAND
11.5 Type and level of test
11.5.2 Hydrostatic strength test
NOTE It is essential that the hydrostatic test pressure is not less than the sum of the MAOP plus any
allowance for surge pressure and other variations likely to be experienced by the pipeline system during
normal operation.
11.5.2.1 Hi-level hydrostatic strength test
A high-level pressure test involves testing to a pressure that generates a hoop stress 90% to 105%
SMYS of the pipeline material. Successful completion of the test at this level demonstrates that any
remaining defects are considerably smaller than would fail at the operating pressure.
It provides a rigorous demonstration of a quantified safety margin that accommodates an allowance for
defect growth during service, and is therefore recommended in cases where operational requirements
could involve significant cyclic pressures, or where increases in the MAOP to design factors exceeding
0.72 are likely to be considered.
NOTE 1 Requirements for high-level testing are given in IGE/TD/1 Edition 4:2001, Section 8 and Appendix 5.
NOTE 2 Where limit state design has been used for natural gas pipelines, see BS EN 1594 for guidance on maximum
hydrostatic test pressures.
11.5.2.2 Standard hydrostatic strength test
A standard pressure test involves testing to the lower of a pressure of not less than 150% of the MAOP
or a pressure that produces a hoop stress level equivalent to 90% SMYS. This test level is intended to
determine whether the quality of the pipeline materials and construction is adequate for future operation
of the pipeline. It is recommended in cases where significant cyclic pressures and/or increases in the
pipeline MAOP are not anticipated in the future operation of the pipeline.
11.11 Pre-testing
11.11.1 General
Pipe and fittings should be pre-tested in the following circumstances:
a) when they cannot be tested after installation in subassemblies to be incorporated into an existing
installation;
b) when they are to be installed in close proximity to operating plant which cannot be protected
against test failure;
c) when it is considered that the potential consequences of a test failure justify pre-testing.
Road and rail crossings classified as major crossings, river crossings, canal crossings and bridge
crossings (see 10.13) should be fabricated from pre-tested pipe or should be pre-tested after fabrication
but before installation and final test. Pre-testing of pipe or fabrications should be carried out in
accordance with 11.4, 11.5 and 11.6 except that:
the pre-test pressure should be at least 1.05 times the test pressure appropriate to the section into
which the crossing is to be installed, taking into account the elevation of the crossing within the test
section; and the duration of the final hold period should be not less than 3 h.
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APPENDIX 2 RANGE OF MILL TEST PRESSURES