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Impact of geopolitical and security environment in 2020 on Southeast Asian armies: Forging cooperative security
Lieutenant Colonel Udom Kosa ul! "a#or Soon Leong! "a#or "ohd Sofi $in "ohd Lepi! "a#or Agus %enaldi! "a#or &o'uhide &a amura and Captain Sone (het (homlouangsy
and that they are determined to ensure their stability and security from external interference in any form or manner in order to preserve their national interest in accordance with the ideals and aspirations of their peoples.

Bali Concord II1 Introduction 1. Military planners in Southeast Asia are grappling with the issue of army force structuring in light of the changing strategic environment. Recognising that force development is a long-term process many !uestions have "een raised on the impact of the changing strategic environment on force levels personnel and training of Southeast Asian armies. #owever the nature of future security challenges is ine$trica"ly lin%ed to the geo-strategic conte$t.& 'orce structures "ased on an inaccurately forecasted geo-strategic environment could render an army irrelevant in the future strategic conte$t.( #ence force structure of Southeast Asian armies should ta%e into cognisance the shifting dynamics in Southeast Asia. &. Southeast Asia has undergone seismic changes since the region was economically dampened "y the u"i!uitous ) nancial crisis in 1**+. Most economies have recovered from the set"ac% and are "ac% on the economic development trac%. #owever the economic downturn has unleashed a wave of separatist and fundamentalist movements and governments crippled "y the lac% of funds and resources were una"le to contain the spread of the malady. Some of these fundamentalist movements have eventually transformed into terrorist movements., -hen .u$taposed on e$isting "order disputes within Southeast Asian countries transnational issues li%e drug and illegal trade and intra-state ethnic tensions Southeast Asia will continue to pose uncertainty to military planners and conse!uently force structuring. (. /he aim of this paper is to analyse the nature of security challenges in &0&0 in Southeast Asia and assess the impact of these challenges on Southeast Asian armies. Since the future could only "e understood through the lens of present day the ) rst part of the paper will identify current geopolitics and security concerns in Southeast Asia. /his is followed "y a description of the nature of security challenges in &0&0. 'inally the impact of these security challenges on Southeast Asian armies will "e assessed. /he "asic hypothesis of this paper is that Southeast Asian armies will have to wor% closer together in response to the strategic uncertainty given the effects of regionalisation in Southeast Asia. In so doing Southeast Asian armies will need to operate together thus possi"ly providing AS1A2 the catalyst to move "eyond mere con) dence "uilding to cooperative security.
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IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL AND SECURITY ENVIRONMENT IN 2020 ON SE ASIAN ARMIES: FORGING COOPERATIVE SECURITY

Current geopolitics and security concerns in AS+A& ,. (ost,crisis economic development. 3ost-crisis economic development of Southeast Asian countries will ta%e centre stage in the near future. -ith the future importance of AS1A2 closely lin%ed to the mem"ers4 economic fortunes 5 economic recovery is the primary focus of Southeast Asian countries.6 Indeed recent developments have underscored the fact that economic political and security trends remain ine$trica"ly interrelated.+ As seen in the 1**+ ) nancial crisis any move to elevate wea%er economies within AS1A2 10 in line with the stronger ones would ma%e the economic landscape fragile and vulnera"le to ) nancial speculation. 1$acer"ated "y the emergence of China as a glo"al economic power attracting more foreign direct investments than Southeast Asia there is a dire need to ensure that economic sta"ility is preserved. 5. +thnic tensions- Southeast Asia comprises a region of diverse ethnicity. -ith a com"ined population of nearly 500 million diverse languages religions and cultures ethnic tension in Southeast Asia remains high7 and could undermine the pluralistic societies of almost all Southeast Asian countries.* -hile aspects of this tension dates "ac% to the pre-colonial period the ) nancial crisis has unleashed the centrifugal forces of ethnic tensions creating security uncertainty in the region.10 -ith limited "udgets governments in Southeast Asia had dif) culties controlling the growing malcontent with .o"lessness and the devaluation of currencies. 'or instance Indonesia witnessed the 8 aring up of ethnic tensions in particular in 9alimantan involving indigenous :aya%s and Madurese11 after the ) nancial crisis. /his could lead to a meltdown of long-standing regimes in Southeast Asia giving credence to alternative ideologies such as religious fundamentalism. 6. %eligious e.tremism- Southeast Asia has witnessed the revival of religious e$tremism. /his has created the delineation of pluralistic societies along religious and ethnic lines. -hen .u$taposed on ethnic tensions religious e$tremism has provided radical groups with the ideology to further political cause.1& As seen in the ;a%arta Marriot #otel "om"ing such religious "ased e$tremist groups will use terror tactics and violence to further their cause. -hile e$tremism had "een detected in Southeast Asia since the early 1*70s the emergence of lin%s to international networ%s some terrorist in nature has made e$tremism a compelling reality.1( /hese Islamic e$tremist networ%s could act to inspire other non-Islamic radical groups in the region. -hile the resolution of religious e$tremism was previously hampered "y internal pro"lems within mem"er states the recent AS1A2 summit in Bali has demonstrated the resolve of AS1A2 mem"ers towards ta%ing multilateral actions against ethno-religious e$tremism and terrorism collectively. /his however could impinge on the AS1A2 principle of <non-interference4 and how mem"er states react to such actions which could diminish a country4s international standing remains to "e seen.1, +. /0ld1 security challenges- /he new forms of security challenges have not replaced the <old4 security challenges in Southeast Asia. /he potential 8 ashpoints in Southeast Asia are shown in 'igure 1. A %ey unresolved issue is the Spratly Islands. /hough China has recently signed a nonaggression pact on this issue 15 the reality is that each contending nation has armed itself relatively rapidly for this purpose as seen in the signi) cant development of the air and maritime capa"ilities of these nations. A move to esta"lish sovereignty of these islands such as China on Mischief Reefs in 1**5 could spar% a regional con8 ict. 7. Another %ey concern is the 2ortheast Asian region. Any con= ict in 2orth 9orea and across the /aiwan Straits could possi"ly have spillover effects in Southeast Asia. Should ;apan "e intertwined into the con8 ict the strategically important sea lines of communications which sustains Southeast Asia4s economic sta"ility could "e disrupted. Coupled with the emanation of ethnic tensions and
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Figure 3: Flashpoint of (otential Con4 icts in the %egion

Taiwan

Malaysia Singapore

Active 5errorism +thnic Conflicts

5rans,national Issues Separatism Interstate 6isputes

religious e$tremism these issues will pose signi) cant challenges to military planners %een on structuring military forces in accordance with the li%ely environment that military forces will operate in. 5he geopolitical and security environment in 2020 *. 7hy 20208 &0&0 will "e a signi) cant milestone in the development of Southeast Asian affairs as the AS1A2 >ision &0&0 aims to create a tariff-free Southeast Asian mar%et.16 -ith this free trade area the economic prosperity of Southeast Asia will "e regionalised with greater economic interdependence.1+ /his economic interdependence could translate into political and security interdependence amongst Southeast Asian countries. 10. %ise of amalgamated threats- /he security environment in &0&0 will "e more complicated than today. Most security challenges will increasingly ta%e on an amalgamated veneer as one particular form of threat could amalgamate with others manifesting itself differently.17 'or instance the Islamic militant group A"u Sayyaf commits "anditry such as %idnapping to fund its terrorist activities. Amalgamation can "e conceptualised in three realms. 'irstly security threats are continuously ta%ing on a transnational nature? security threats will no longer "e "ounded "y geography.1* Secondly security threats are starting to have e$ternal lin%s with other glo"al organisations with similar political agendas as the case of ;emaah Islamiah illustrates. /hirdly security threats are increasingly using violent means to spread their cause. Security challenges in &0&0 can "e put into conte$t in 'igure &. 11. 6ecline of inter,state armed con4 icts- /he possi"ility of inter-state armed con8 ict within Southeast Asia would decline.&0 /his is "ecause the AS1A2 forum is still seen as a via"le con8 ict resolution platform. 'urthermore nations will not .eopardise their economic recovery unless the issue infringes on the sovereignty of a particular country. #ence armed con8 ict carries a heavy economic cost. In8 uences from glo"al and regional powers would also contain the out"rea% of

armed con8 icts as these would have ma.or glo"al implications. #owever this e!uili"rium may "e interrupted should
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IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL AND SECURITY ENVIRONMENT IN 2020 ON SE ASIAN ARMIES: FORGING COOPERATIVE SECURITY

Figure 2: :eo,Strategic 6omain in Southeast Asia

+thno, %eligious

Lin s ;ith glo'al organisations

Intra, State Conflict

%egiona l 5erroris m

5ransnational
5rans, &ational

Level of violence
Conflict

Issues

the South China Sea situation escalate into con8 ict. Rushing to dominate oil-rich areas in the South China Sea "elligerents would deploy strong maritime@air presence including high-technology weaponry in a "id to gain signi) cant economic "ene) ts.&1 1&. +thno<religious con4 icts and separatism- Current ethnic tensions and religious fundamentalism could lead to a rise in ethno@religious con8 icts.&& /hese con8 icts are essentially "ased on e$tremist views that profess a commitment to separatism or the esta"lishment of states on an ethno@religious "asis.&( 'or instance the spiritual leader "ehind the radical groups 9umpulan Militant Malaysia A9MMB and ;emaah Islamiah Shei%h A"u Ba%ar Bashir see%s to esta"lish an Islamic repu"lic in South Mindanao Malaysia Singapore and Indonesia. /hese con8 icts will li%ely ta%e on a transnational character and in some cases "ecome networ%ed with specialised cells spread across nations. Some cells will specialise in indoctrination and others in ) nancial operations.&, In radical groups such con8 icts could even ta%e on the shroud of terrorism as such groups are invaria"ly small in siCe. By resorting to terrorism such groups can cause disproportionate effects on civilian populations and in particular gain pu"licity for their cause. /he resolution of such con8 icts will "e dependent on several factors of which economic and political sta"ility is %ey. Such sta"ility will provide governments with a ) rm "ase for starting national integration programs emphasising moderation good governance and visi"ility of the secular system.&5 1(. 5ransnational issues- As AS1A2 moves towards greater regionalisation transnational issues will remain a reality in the future. /hree transnational issues can "e foreseen in the future. 'irstly drug smuggling will "e a ma.or social and security menace particularly in Myanmar. An unsta"le Myanmar could foster private armies li%e 9hun Sa and their in8 uence might transcend the Myanmar "order. Secondly illegal immigrants will continue to shift demographics in the developing nations in Southeast Asia invaria"ly causing social and political insta"ility.&6 /hirdly piracy will rise in the future as radical groups could use piracy for funding purposes. Dther than economic rami) cations piracy could also impact on international relations. 'or instance an increase in piracy may compel
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intervention "y regional and glo"al powers thus increasing their military presence in the region on the prete$t of providing security to their shipping assets. /his would e$acer"ate the already complicated relations within Southeast Asia. 1,. %egional terrorism-22 Circumventing regional terrorism will "e a %ey challenge for AS1A2 in &0&0. Since Septem"er 11 the Bali and ;a%arta Marriot #otel "om"ings views on security have changed. -hile previous terrorist organisations were disparate organisations ) ghting for separate causes regional terrorists will ) ght for a common cause across national "oundaries and will possess capa"ilities to target masses using easily-ac!uired advanced technology weapons or e!uipment including chemical@"iological weapons. /he modus operandi of such organisations will also continually morph "eyond the spectacular and will stretch the "oundaries of rationality such as the perversion of aircrafts into missiles.&7 /hese terrorist organisations would target civilians and civilian infrastructure which are much more dif) cult to protect compared to military targets. Enli%e the Irish Repu"lican Army which is a terrorist organisation that is willing to negotiate this particular strain of terrorism would not negotiate in their demands and is ine$trica"ly lin%ed to ethno-religious con8 icts. Regional terrorist organisations could also have lin%s to glo"al terrorist organisations for spiritual = nancial or training assistance.&* Impact on Southeast Asia and its armies: Forging cooperative security 15. /he comple$ity of threats in the not-too-distant future raises important !uestions on the force structure of Southeast Asian armies. By &0&0 issues predominantly of transnational nature would dominate the security climate in Southeast Asia. In such a regionalised environment closer cooperation "etween governments military forces and other security agencies would "e a lynchpin in ensuring a sta"ility that transcends national "oundaries. Cooperative security could provide a framewor% for closer cooperation. 16. Cooperative security de= ned. Cooperative security is conceptualised as cooperation "etween AS1A2 governments military forces civil and non-government organisations focusing on the common security challenges posed "y amalgamated threats. Cooperative security will harness the strengths of mem"er states against the vulnera"ilities of such threats. 'or instance against militants hiding in .ungles the Malaysian Armed 'orces with their e$pertise in Counter Insurgency -arfare could provide advice and assistance on operations designed to root out these militants. #ence a precondition of cooperative security is the understanding of the true nature of a particular threat and appropriately applying the e$pertise and resources of mem"er states. 1+. Impact on AS+A&- Cooperative security will re!uire the nature of AS1A2 to evolve. Since the inception of AS1A2 in 1*6+ the association was never considered to "e an alliance or a collective security arrangement.(0 Rather AS1A2 was conceptualised as a multilateral approach to security.(1 3resently in AS1A2 cooperative security is somewhat limited "y competing national security concerns in Southeast Asia.(& #ence AS1A2 could move towards greater cooperation in regional security matters.(( Indeed some level of colla"oration on security on a regional "asis is essential if the well"eing of the various states is to "e assured.(, #owever colla"orative actions could inadvertently "e misconstrued as impinging on national sovereignties.(5 3erhaps a precondition for a via"le cooperative security framewor% must rest on the acceptance "y AS1A2 states of <rules4 that relate their domestic political structures to their relations with one another (6 as well as the principles re!uired for an effective regional security mechanism.(+ Indeed there have "een calls to replace
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IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL AND SECURITY ENVIRONMENT IN 2020 ON SE ASIAN ARMIES: FORGING COOPERATIVE SECURITY

the non-intervention policy with an e$plicit lin%age "etween domestic government and regional security.(7 As Malaysia4s :eputy 3rime Minister :atu% Seri A"dullah Ahmed Badawi stressedF
At times it may "e necessary for AS1A2 mem"er countries to "e a mirror to each other and <gentle reminders4 from fellow AS1A2 nations should "e accepted in the spirit of maintaining unity and credi"ility.(*

17. Impact on Southeast Asian armies- Cooperative security will impact on the force structure of Southeast Asian armies. Given the diverse state of development of Southeast Asian armies closer cooperation will re!uire interopera"ility "etween military forces and security agencies within and "etween Southeast Asian countries. Indeed Southeast Asian armies will need to "e tailored to the increasingly porous national "orders and amalgamation of security threats. 1*. $road,spectrum capa'ilities- Southeast Asian armies will have to contend with amalgamated threats in addition to traditional ones. -hile conventional con8 ict is still a possi"ility al"eit low it is necessary to develop capa"ilities that address the amalgamated threats without compromising conventional war) ghting capa"ilities. #ence Southeast Asian armies will need to develop "roadspectrum forces capa"le of handling "road-spectrum threats ranging from e$ternal conventional threats to amalgamated threats such as law enforcement and even possi"ly nation-"uilding. /his will re!uire forces to "e trained in "oth conventional and non-conventional operations "e e!uipped for "oth and "e adapta"le to different re!uirements at a relatively short notice. #ence force development in Southeast Asian armies will continue to focus on conventional capa"ilities while developing doctrines that allow 8 e$i"ility of employing conventional capa"ilities in nonconventional tas%s. &0. Adapting conventional force structures to non,conventional tas s- Southeast Asian armies would still "e com"ined arms forces adopting the manoeuvrist approach. /he challenge is to adapt these forces to non-conventional tas%s. -hile conventional forces have limited roles in nonconventional threat environments several conventional capa"ilities could "e applied in the latter environments and thus should "e developed further "y all Southeast Asian armies. a. Civil,military relations >C"%?- In an environment with non-conventional threats military forces will invaria"ly have to wor% with civilians civil and nongovernmental organisations. /he development of effective civil@military mechanisms will facilitate the planning and e$ecution of such operations. ". Intelligence! surveillance and reconnaissance >IS%?- 2on-conventional threat environments could escalate !uic%ly from "enign to lethal ones. /o safeguard the military forces in such environments ISR assets and networ%s including #EMI2/ and IMI2/ assets could "e deployed for information collection. /he deployment of EA>s in Solomon Islands illustrates the utility of ISR assets in peace-support operations. c. +ngineering capa'ilities- 'ield and Construction 1ngineers provide mo"ility counter-mo"ility and surviva"ility capa"ilities in conventional operations. In nonconventional tas%s however such capa"ilities could assist in humanitarian assistance and could also "e useful in civil@military relations. /his could help circumvent the spread of any social-"ased threats and win the hearts and minds of the local populace against the perpetrators. d. Com'at service support >CSS? capa'ilities- CSS is an integral component of conventional operations. It could also "e applied in non-conventional tas%s focusing on sustaining the deployed forces and re!uisition of civil resources for use in the operations. -hen appropriately upgraded in Southeast Asian military forces CSS could allow a degree of interopera"ility amongst various armies. In addition it would also facilitate the adaptation of conventional capa"ilities to non-conventional tas%s.
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&1. 6eveloping non,conventional capa'ilities- Concurrent with the developing of conventional capa"ilities several %ey non-conventional capa"ilities should "e developed. -ithin Southeast Asia there is a disparity in terms of non-conventional capa"ilities giving impetus to the need to close the capa"ility gaps "etween Southeast Asian armies. a. Counter,terrorist capa'ilities- Counter-terrorist capa"ilities allow governments to have an option of <no negotiation4 in hostage situations. If politically motivated hostage situations could have political rami) cations on governments especially if governments start to negotiate with terrorists. (eace,support and peace eeping capa'ilities- 3eace-support and peace%eeping capa"ilities can "e applied to areas riven with ethno-religious tensions or transnational crimes. In "oth types of operations Southeast Asian countries will have to wor% closely together in addressing not only rules-of-engagement legal and operational issues "ut also CMR and intelligence sharing. Chemical! 'iological and radiological >C$%? capa'ilities- /he proliferation and ease of constructing CBR weapons has fuelled the possi"ility of a terrorist CBR attac% on civilian concentrations. -ith CBR response capa"ilities damages caused "y such attac%s could "e mitigated.

".

c.

&&. Interopera'ility- Cooperative security would re!uire a degree of interopera"ility amongst Southeast Asian armies. At present interopera"ility is limited "y the differences in capa"ilities "etween Southeast Asian armies. -hile the intention to cooperate is genuine the capa"ility gaps "etween armies could pose signi) cant challenges. #ence it is necessary to level-up the capa"ility gaps amongst Southeast Asian armies. /his would re!uire greater integration and coordination amongst the <AS1A2 Security Community4 in particular in C,I and training issues.,0 Epgrading the C,I capa"ilities of all Southeast Asian armies is a precondition of interopera"ility allowing the integration of intelligence collection efforts and information 8 ow. /he training of personnel to operate high technology systems could "e achieved through "ilateral channels with technologicallycapa"le countries providing assistance to others. &(. 5echnology transfer. Cooperative security would re!uire the transfer of technology %nowhow from technologically-capa"le armies to lesser ones. -ith the security challenges in mind technology will mitigate the effects of constraints faced "y certain armies such as the Singapore Armed 'orces which faces considera"le limitations in manpower. /he transfer of technology will o"lige military leaders in the region to develop concepts that can e$ploit new technologies in accordance with the strategic challenges. It could also provide the technology "ase for civil industries to develop. #owever harnessing technology is e$pensive. #ence ac!uiring hightechnology e!uipment and developing new operating concepts with this new e!uipment is su".ect to availa"ility of defence "udgets. -ith governments focused on economic development the need for a sta"le and secure environment for foreign investments could provide the impetus for additional funding. &,. Con= dence,'uilding. Given the uncertainty of the security environment in the region Southeast Asian governments should aim to reduce the response time for the deployment of military and civil agencies to the area of operations. /o reduce response time mutual understanding will "e %ey. #ence con) dence-"uilding within the region is critical. :efence "ilateral and multilateral cooperation including com"ined training and personnel e$changes should "e strengthened to maintain the understanding of differences amongst Southeast Asian armies.
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IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL AND SECURITY ENVIRONMENT IN 2020 ON SE ASIAN ARMIES: FORGING COOPERATIVE SECURITY

Conclusion &5. Southeast Asia is a region in = u$. Comprising a collection of nations with diverse ethnicity race language and political systems Southeast Asia has e$perienced the "oom and "ust of the Asian economic miracle fracturing of political systems and the shifting ES strategic interests amid the glo"al war against terrorism.,1 -hen .u$taposed on inter-state "order issues intra-state ethnic tensions and the emergence of non-state actors such as ;emaah Islamiah and Ha%sar ;ihad security concerns in Southeast Asia are increasingly amalgamated. Dnly with a secure environment can economic development ta%e place. &6. Southeast Asian countries will need to focus on cooperative security. By wor%ing closer together to resolve issues military forces in Southeast Asia will need to "e prepared to underta%e non-conventional tas%s. /his will coalesce mem"er-states and hence facilitate the development of mutual understanding transparency and communications developing the <AS1A2 -ay4 further.,& #ence cooperation "etween military forces could "e a har"inger for a more secure environment in the near future providing opportunities for economic development and "etter sta"ility.

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+ndnotes 1. :eclaration of Bali Concord II Bali Indonesia + Dcto"er &00(. &. ; Mali% Aed.B 1**+ <Sources and 2ature of 'uture Con= icts in the Asia@3aci= c Region4
Battle eld, Commonwealth of Australia p. (*.

The Future

(. ,. 5. 6.

,5.

R ;ervis 1**1 </he 'uture of -orld 3olitics4

International Security vol 16 no. ( -inter 1**1I*& pp. ((@

3 Searle &00& <1thno-Religious Con= ictsF Rise or :ecline= Recent :evelopments in Southeast Asia4 ontemporary Southeast !sia vol. &, no. 1 Apr p. 1. S #arris 1*** The !sian "e#ional "esponse to the $conomic risis and the %lobal Implications A2E -or%ing 3aper 1***I, p. 11. ontemporary Southeast !sia vol

; 'unston 1*** <Challenges 'acing AS1A2 in a More Comple$ Age4 &1 2o. & August p. &1&.

+. 7. *. 10.
and

/ Shorroc% 1*77 !sian Financial risis >olume ( 2um"er 7 April 1**7 JhttpFIIfpif.orgI"riefsK. JhttpFIIwww.cnn.comI&000IASIA2D-IsoutheastI10I&6Iindonesia.violenceIK. JhttpFIIwww."artle"y.comI6+I,0,+.htmlK. A /an and B 9enneth Aed.B &001. Strategic Studies Singapore pp. &77@&*0. &on'Traditional Security Issues in Southeast !sia. Institute of :efence

11. 1&. 1(. 1,.

JhttpFIIwww.cnn.comI&000IASIA2D-IsoutheastI10I&6Iindonesia.violenceIK. Searle op. cit. p. ,.

# Soesastro &00& <Southeast Asia and Glo"al /errorismF Implication on State Security and #uman Security4. The Indonesian (uarterly >ol (0 2o 1 pp. (1@((.

Radio Singapore International ARSIB &00( Indonesia )roposes that !n !S$!& Security ommunity Be Formed. Availa"le online at JhttpFIIwww.rsi.com.sgIenglishIperspectiveIviewI&00(07(01(061&I1I.htmlK. 15. The Straits Times &00( <China Signs 2on-Aggression 3act4 & Dct 0( Singapore 3ress #oldings.

16. 1+. 17. 1*. &0. &1. &&. &(. &,. &5. &6. &+.
to

The Straits Times &00( Singapore 3ress #oldings 6 Dct 0(. The Straits Times &00( <Along with China 2orth America 1urope and 1ast Asia4 'unston op. cit. p. &1+. /he %idnapping of tourists from Sa"ah "y the A"u Sayaaf terrorist group illustrates this point. 'unston op. cit. p. &17. i"id p. &&0. Searle op. cit. p. 1. i"id. :M ;ones and MH Smith &00& <'rom 9onfrontasi to :isintegrasiF AS1A2 and the Rise of Islamism in Southeast Asia4 Studies in on* ict and Terrorism vol. (,( p. (,+. Searle op. cit. p. &.

3hilippines and Indonesia two main sources of illegal immigrants have criticised a num"er of countries imposing whipping on illegal immigrants. /errorism is de= ned as <the use of violence especially murder and "om"ing in order to achieve political aims or

force a government to do something4 +ac,uarie -ictionary. &7. S Simon 1**7 <Security 3rospects in Southeast AsiaF Colla"orative 1fforts and the AS1A2 Regional 'orum4 The )aci c "eview, >ol 11 2o & 1**7 pp. 1*5@&1&. &*. i"id.
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IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL AND SECURITY ENVIRONMENT IN 2020 ON SE ASIAN ARMIES: FORGING COOPERATIVE SECURITY

(0.

S Simon 1**7 <Security 3rospects in Southeast AsiaF Colla"orative 1fforts and the AS1A2 Regional 'orum4 The )aci c "eview >ol 11 2o & 1**7 pp. 1*5@&1&. (1. S Simon 1**6 <Security 1conomic Hi"eralism and :emocracyF Asian 1lite 3erceptions of post-Cold -ar 'oreign 3olicy >alues4 &B" !nalysis, Summer 1**6F pp. 5@(&.

(&.

S Simon 1**7 op. cit. pp. 1*5@&1&. All AS1A2 states have territorial disputes with at least one other mem"er. /hus none could "e impartial in mediating these issues. Conse!uently cooperative security is limited. /his is due to the fact that AS1A2 mem"ers still maintain separate national security policies. ((. Simon op. cit. p. 1*7 (,. AI A.i"ewa 1**7 <Regional Security in an 1$panded AS1A2F A 2ew 'ramewor%4 )aci ca "eview >olume 10 2um"er & ;une 1**7 p. 1(1.

(5.

S Simon 1**7 <Security 3rospects in Southeast AsiaF Colla"orative 1fforts and the AS1A2 Regional 'orum4 The )aci c "eview >ol 11 2o & 1**7 p. &0,. (6. AI A.i"ewa 1**7 <Regional Security in an 1$panded AS1A2F A 2ew 'ramewor%4 )aci ca "eview, >olume 10 2um"er & ;une 1**7 p. 1&7.

(+. (7. (*. ,0. ,1. ,&.

A.i"ewa op. cit. p. 1&+. i"id. i"id. RSI op. cit. M Beeson &00& <Southeast Asia and the 3olitics of >ulnera"ility4 Third .orld (uarterly, >ol &( 2o ( p. 550. 3 Sorpong &00& <Realism and Constructivism in Southeast Asian Security4 The )aci c "eview >ol 15 2o 1 p.

1(0.

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$i'liography
A.i"ewa AI 1**7 <Regional Security in an 1$panded AS1A2F A 2ew 'ramewor%4 )aci ca "eview, >olume 10 2um"er & ;une 1**7. Beeson M &00& <Southeast Asia and the 3olitics of >ulnera"ility4 Third .orld (uarterly >ol &( 2o (. 'unston ; 1*** <Challenges 'acing AS1A2 in a More Comple$ Age4 ontemporary Southeast !sia >ol &1 2o. & August. ;ervis R 1**1 </he 'uture of -orld 3olitics4 International Security vol 16 no. ( -inter 1**1I*&. ;ones :M and Smith MH &00& <'rom 9onfrontasi to :isintegrasiF AS1A2 and the Rise of Islamism in Southeast Asia4 Studies in on* ict and Terrorism vol. (,(. #arris S 1*** The !sian "e#ional "esponse to the $conomic risis and the %lobal Implications A2E -or%ing 3aper 1***I,. Radio Singapore International ARSIB &00( Indonesia )roposes that !n !S$!& Security ommunity Be Formed . Availa"le online at JhttpFIIwww.rsi.com.sgIenglishIperspectiveIviewI&00(07(01(061&I1I.htmlK. Searle 3 &00& <1thno-Religious Con8 ictsF Rise or :ecline= Recent :evelopments in Southeast Asia4 ontemporary Southeast !sia, vol. &, no. 1 April &00&. Soesastro # &00& <Southeast Asia and Glo"al /errorismF Implication on State Security and #uman Security4. Indonesian (uarterly >ol (0 2o 1. The

Shorroc% / 1*77 !sian Financial risis! >olume ( 2um"er 7 April 1**7 JhttpFIIfpif.orgI"riefsK. Simon S 1**7 <Security 3rospects in Southeast AsiaF Colla"orative 1fforts and the AS1A2 Regional 'orum4 The )aci c "eview >ol 11 2o & 1**7. Simon S 1**6 <Security 1conomic Hi"eralism and :emocracyF Asian 1lite 3erceptions of post-Cold -ar 'oreign 3olicy >alues4 &B" !nalysis Summer 1**6. Sorpong 3 &00& <Realism and Constructivism in Southeast Asian Security4 The )aci c "eview /he Straits /imes &00( <China Signs 2on-Aggression 3act4 & Dct 0( The Straits Times, #oldings. /he Straits /imes &00( <Along with China 2orth America 1urope and 1ast Asia4 Mali% ; Aed.B 1**+ <Sources and 2ature of 'uture Con8 icts in the Asia@3aci) c Region / Commonwealth of Australia. /an A and 9enneth B A1d.B &001 Strategic Studies Singapore. &on'Traditional Security Issues in Southeast !sia >ol 15 2o 1. Singapore 3ress

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