Study Guide:

SLMUN 2013 FSC: Futuristic Security Council

FSC: Futuristic Security Council

The Futuristic Security council is quite easily the most unique committee at the Sri Lanka Model United Nations 2013. Like the committee name states, FSC will be a simulation of a futuristic Security Council of the United Nations. As a delegate of the Futuristic Security Council we would expect you to remember the following:

You are in the simulation of a committee based in the future, so you will be expected to think like a diplomat of the future and adapt accordingly.

Carry out thorough research on the current affairs of your country. After all your past shapes your future.

Your foreign policy is your holy grail. Stick to it at all costs. Your allies and foes may have changed in the future. So make sure you understand your countries policy towards all other countries at the Futuristic Security Council.

Make sure you thoroughly understand the background story for the simulation. Your understanding of the situation will be the key factor towards a good debate. If you have any questions feel free to ask your chairs.

Delegates, we are expecting a lot from you. As delegates of FSC we expect you to be diplomatic, we expect you to think on your feet and we expect you all to debate your hearts out. This study guide contains all information pertaining to the background story of the futuristic simulation and a timeline of events up to the date at which the FSC of SLMUN 2013 is been simulated.

Date of Simulation: 5th to 7th August 2049 Head Table

President: Vice President: Sonal Sukhith Jayawickrama Rukshana Sundar

Time line of Events

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20th April 2010 An explosion occurs on the Deep-water Horizon Rig belonging to British Petroleum, and it was considered as the largest marine accidental oil spill at that point of time. This oil spill claimed 11 lives and the total discharge was estimated to be 4.9 million barrels (780,000 cm3 of oil). 15th July 2010 A sea flow oil gusher flowed for 87 days until it was capped temporarily on this day. The President of the USA at the time, Barack Obama, immediately orders an investigation into all 29 oilrigs in the Gulf Sea, and suspends any drilling licenses until the review is complete. British Petroleum downplayed the incident until reports revealed the massive extent to which marine life would be affected, and the estimate that it would take close to 8 years for the oil to dissipate. In late May, Greenpeace activists in London scaled BP's company headquarters in St. James's Square and unfurled mock BP logo banners imprinted with oil stains reading "British polluters. British Petroleum are fined closed to $42 billion for the whole incident by the US federal government. 3rd April 2013 Numerous studies conclude that large areas of the Gulf Sea were

already oil free. The studies concluded that the Gulf Sea had an abundance of oil eating bacteria, which contained the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster. These oil bacteria were naturally present in the Gulf Sea. 15th June 2014 The Republic of South Africa set up a secret government facility, which carries out research on the oil-eating microbes. At the same point of time, North Korea continues to threaten South Korea and the United States of America. 6th November 2016 Hilary Clinton wins the US presidential campaign and takes up office at the White House. She is faced with a daunting task of fixing a failing economy and tightening lax gun laws amid massive pressure from groups around the country after numerous shoot outs at public places including schools and universities.

23rd of March 2019 Twelve accidents on numerous oilrigs around the world lead to massive oil spills over the past 6 years. It is estimated that these 12 accidents in total released over 15 million barrels of crude oil into the ocean. Greenpeace carry our largescale protests around the world demanding Page | 4

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the immediate closure of all oilrigs around the world. Large scale advertising on international television networks and the Internet cause massive damage to the brands of all oil companies. Certain groups raise questions as how to Greenpeace could afford such a massive advertising campaign, but these concerns die down as oil companies give into the pressure. On the 23rd of March 2019, the top 15 oil producing companies meet with the Greenpeace representatives and agree to allow 4th June 2023 The Fula oil field in South Sudan which had a total of 550 000 million barrels of proven oil reserves report that it is cutting this estimate down to 200 000 oil barrels amid a situation where daily oil 2nd August 2019 The Republic of South Africa discovers oil fields just off the coast of Cape Town. However this information is not released to the public.. 6th November 2020 Mitt Romney is 6th November 2023 The Fula Oil field in South Sudan dries out. The government of South Sudan does not respond to the situation crisis. 25th November 2023 Nation wide riots take place across the United States of America as rising unemployment and poverty grip the nation. President Romney accepts that the government is beginning to Page | 5 www.slmun.org and it is believed that the appointed as President of the United States of America amid massive allegations of corruption during the election. The unemployment rate was at 32%, with a majority of the states reporting lawlessness as armed gangs begin assuming control of cities. government is not aware of the cause of the production had dropped by 45%. Greenpeace to conduct yearly audits on oil rigs around the world. 15th April 2023 The General Assembly adopts resolution 2345, which declares Tibet as a neutral zone amid increasing tension between India and China, with each country threatening to go to war over the small mountainous region. The resolution passes with overwhelming majority. The UNPKF is deployed to Tibet to ensure that the conditions of the resolution are met.

loose control. Large organized gangs begin gaining control of cities as widespread bribery cripples the US police. These gangs begin stock piling large quantities of weapons. 28th November 2023 Minor clashes occur within the now neutral zone of Tibet, as India and China both publicly admit a neutral zone wasnt the best way forward. 5th November 2027 The tests, which were 3rd March 2026 Top officials of the government of the Republic of South Africa secretly meet with Sharp End International, a Private Military company based in New Zealand. Sharp End International was hired by Greenpeace to provide its auditors with security. The outcome of the meeting had Sharp End International helping the 3rd March 2028 Oil producing countries around the world panic as they do not have a response to the oil-eating virus. Water sources, food sources and all imports are thoroughly checked for contamination by the February June 2027 The security contingent belonging to Greenpeace release the canisters, which contain the oileating virus on all oil fields around the world during the annual audits carried out by Greenpeace. 31st December 2028 New Years Eve. Oil prices www.slmun.org have sky rocketed and most virus. Airports around the world set up tight screening processes to ensure the virus is not transmitted through humans. government of South Africa to release the canisters containing the oil-eating virus during the Greenpeace audits, in return for an undisclosed sum of money. carried out by OPEC, reveal a highly mutated oil-eating virus had affected the oil fields. However the scientists in charge had never seen such a virus that multiplied at such alarming rates and was doing so by only feeding of the oil. 5th August 2027 All oil fields and rigs around the world report an immediate drop in daily oil production rates. Reports are also released of how oil reserves in the oil fields seem to be depleting at alarming rates. OPEC decides to take immediate action by carrying out tests on some of their oil fields.

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households are without power as electricity costs have increased by over 400%. The OPEC announces it is close to developing a counter pathogen to the oil-eating virus, which is almost impossible to contain. However, at this stage reports surface that over 55% of earths previously reported oil reserves have now gone. A Tibetan scientist working in South Africa returns to Tibet for his annual vacation. On arrival in Tibet, the screening process set up flags the scientist. He is taken away for further investigation. 1st January 2029 North Korea, which had been one of the least dependent countries on oil, show strong resiliency to the sudden oil crisis. Over the past 15 years it had been continuously threatening the United States of America and South Korea with nuclear war. However on this day, North Korea finally successfully test a 10-kiloton nuclear warhead on a remote island off the Korean Peninsula. States of South America, Korea which immediately is almost requests the UN to intervene. The United completely lawless with gangs taking control of the country, barely responds. 2nd January 2029 The Republic of South Africa begin preparations to set up oilrigs on

the oil fields just off its coast. Only top government officials are aware of the project and tight security and secrecy is maintained around the whole project. 2nd February 2029 After numerous tests carried out by labs in Tibet, officials claim to have found a string of the oil-eating virus, which had never been seen before. Some scientists predict that it may be a counterpathogen to the virus and this information leaks to the media. 4th March 2029 All oil producing countries release a statement that all oil supplies would dry out by the end of 2029. 13th March 2029 India demands from the United Nations, that the Tibetan scientist with the claimed counter-pathogen to be immediately sent to India for further testing. However, China enters the fray stating that since Tibet is a neutral zone, China had as much ownership of the Tibetan scientist as India. Both India and China immediately begin to threaten each other till the use of force seems a distinct possibility. However the UNPKF in Tibet, refuse claims from both sides.

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1st May 2029 Almost every country save a few descend into total chaos as oil and petrol supplies come to a standstill. Transportation systems are disrupted or completely shut down. Food and water shortages arise in almost every city and town. The Middle East economy, which depended so highly on its oil reserves, is the first to suffer badly. The economy is crippled immediately. Transportation systems, military installations, all which depended purely on fossil fuels, come to a stand still. As riots and anarchy sets in, government begins to loose control of their countries. 3rd May 2029 All found and proven oil reserves on Earth are totally depleted.

country was prepared for a crisis of this proportion. It was only a matter of time before anarchy set in around the world. Electricity and power to 98% of the world was lost. 20th May 2029 North Korean forces invade a crippled South Korea and claim ownership. The New Republic of Korea is born. 4th June 2029 The birth power of a superpower. After almost a decade of secrecy, the republic of South Africa finally release reports that it has proven oil reserves of 267 billion barrels. The rest of the world accepts this news with immediate appreciation. 15th June 2029 All 97 oilrigs in the republic

5th May 2029 Russia begins selling uranium and nuclear technology as means of protecting its economy and financial system. Its biggest buyers include North Korea, Iran and India.

of

South

Africa

go

online

and

daily

production is estimated to be between 13,000 and 18,000 barrels. An oil barrel is sold at $6713.45, a 325% increase from the price of the last barrel of oil sold. The rest of the world having no other option, immediately adjust all their budgets to accommodate the oil. Demand for oil had

15th

May

2029

Economists

predict

never been higher. The rest of the world falls back into a sense of false security.

irreparable damage to economies around the world. Chaos ensues as not a single

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1st July 2029 Iran now makes a very unexpected move. It carries out a full-scale invasion of Israel and the Middle East. The people of Palestine are restored back into Israel, while Iran takes control of the Middle East using its strong military backed by its nuclear force. 28th July 2029 - The people of Palestine settle in Israel. The Jewish people of former Israel are pushed into the Gaza Strip.

with issues ranging from the Middle East invasion to the Korean crisis, the Republic of South Africa raises a much larger issue. It questions the security of the nuclear warheads in the United States of America, as the government no longer has control of the country. It leads the creation of a resolution, which stated, that since South Africa was one of the most stable countries in the world, it would secure all the nuclear warheads within South Africa itself. There is a massive uproar from the delegation of USA and its allies. However through popular

5th August 2029 As USA falls into more chaos, it is clear that the Presidency has lost total control of the country. As border control breaks down, Mexican gangs flood into the United States. Almost every major city and town is now under the control of gangs. 3rd September 2029 South Africas

consensus and using its bargaining chip of oil, the republic of South Africa secure 145 votes to pass the resolution. The resolution orders the USA to immediately hand over all of its nuclear warheads to the Republic of South Africa. On the same day a landmark resolution on Security Council reform passes through the General Assembly. It removes the veto power from all nations of the Security Council, and states that all members will be elected on a temporary basis. 25th October 2029 Iran has gained total control of the Middle East. Iran also claims responsibility for the oil-eating virus, which affected oil, fields around the world. Page | 9

economy grows by an unbelievable 42% within just 6 months of beginning oil production. The South African Rand soon becomes one of the most highly demanded currencies in the world. 18th September 2029 The UNGA meets. As the General Assembly is bombarded

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other through thick and thin. We have seen 31st April 2030 The South African economy continues to grow at an exponential rate. By April 2030, it becomes the largest economy in the world surpassing China and Germany. The South African Rand becomes the most powerful currency in the world, and becomes as influential as the US dollar was in the early 1990s. the world discriminate us, not care about us. However, South Africa has been able to rise from all this and turn the tables around on our enemies. But we understand, that not all our African brothers and sisters have been successful like us. So we offer you a unique opportunity. South Africa is rich, powerful and has the strongest military in the world. We realize there are so many nations within Africa finding it difficult to make ends meet, so join us. Join the Greater South Africa. Under our leadership you will prosper, you will be able to feed yourselves and your 31st December 2032 New Years Eve. South Africa is now the most influential and powerful economy in the world. It also establishes as the richest country in the world. To further enhance its status, the Republic of South begins to expand its military capabilities. Due to its money power, it spends large sums of money developing the latest in military technology. Poorer African countries, unable to afford the oil slip into deeper crisis, with widespread poverty and malnourishment. However South Africa makes a very bold move on this day, it releases a general statement to the Africa continent. We are Africans, we have always stood by each 1st January 2030 The Greater South Africa (GSA) is born. A majority of the African countries immediately see South Africas offer as the way out. 42 out of the 60 remaining African countries agree to South Africas proposal. This newly formed bloc of countries is renamed as the Greater South Africa. The Greater South Africa would retain the current South African president as its leader, however a member of each Page | 10 www.slmun.org families, live like kings and queens. Join us, we can help you, together we can make Africa the most powerful continent in the world.

country was allowed a seat in the new centralized government. 5th January 2030 In order to immediately establish dominance, the Greater South Africa files a strong case for the relocation of the United Nations headquarters. With the USA been in a state of lawlessness, and with the GSA establishing itself as a superpower, the United Nations has no valid reason to object. However, China and the new Republic of Korea raise objections. 25th January 2030 The military of the Republic of Korea carries out a full-scale invasion of the United States of America backed by China. With the current states of the USA, ROK forces wipe out any threats they face and take control of the country. 1st March 2030 The United Nations headquarters is relocated to Cape Town in the Greater South Africa. 30th March 2030 The GSA announces the creation of a free trade zone and offers invitations to any country around the world to join the free trade agreement. Immediately the European Union is thrown into chaos, as there is a division between

the nations as what needs to be done. However a group of countries including France, Poland, Turkey, Belgium, Bulgaria and Ukraine do join the GSA in their new venture for the sake of saving their economies. However nations such as the United Kingdom, Netherlands and Germany stick to the European Union. 2nd August 2030 The Republic of Korea announces it now has full control of the United States of America and deems the USA as a colony of the Republic of Korea. 4th March 2032 Clashes continue to occur between forces Indian and Chinese forces in Tibet as both countries strive to establish dominance. India which had purchased large quantities of uranium from Russia, now claim to have an arsenal of nuclear weapons. 2033 The GSA continues to grow while providing support to its African counterparts to develop at the same time. The GSA garners worldwide support thanks to its sympathy towards Africa and also due to the free trade zone it created which helped a number of countries gain some sort of stability. Page | 11

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4th July 2038 Brazil begins commercial 2036 The GSA recognizing the fact that its oil reserves were dwindling, immediately focus its resources on the development of a form of renewable energy source. 2037 Brazil releases an official statement that it has developed a cost effective hydrogen fuel cell. Brazil had been working on this technology for the past 12 years, and after numerous tests and failures it successfully showcases the Hydrogen Fuel Cell to the general public. The Hydrogen Fuel Cell is immediately placed as the future for future energy as it is clear, that the oil from the GSA is about to dry out. 2nd June 2038 The Greater South Africa releases a statement that it officially is stopping oil supplies to the rest of the world as it wishes to leave an oil reserve for 3 years to support its own nation. 4th August 2049 Brazil releases a statement that it is about to send 250 of the previously developed weaponized satellites into space. 2045 Brazil successfully tests and sends to orbit a weaponized satellite capable of striking any given point on Earth in less than a minute. The GSA raises great concerns, saying such a move is a violation of the sovereignty of other nations and a violation of 2043 Brazils economy continues to grow exponentially thanks to its development of the Hydrogen Fuel Cell. production of its Hydrogen Fuel cell. Stock markets in Brazil immediately hit a positive note, as investors believe Brazil is now on the path to becoming a very strong economy.

Security Council as at 5th August 2049

Temporary Member Nations elected for a three term (The veto power has been removed): Brazil Page | 12 www.slmun.org

China Cuba Egypt France Germany India Indonesia Iran Mexico Mongolia New Zealand Republic of Korea Russia Turkey United Kingdom Greater South Africa (Location of the UN Headquarters)

How it all started

The outlook of the whole world has changed in 2049. Former super powers now lay in a state of chaos, while some countries have ascended into states of unbelievable power. All these events can be traced back to one event in 2010, the Deep Water Horizon oil crisis. Hailed as the worst oil spill of its time, experts predicted that it would take more than 10 years for the oil that leaked to eventually dissipate. However in 2013, scientists found out that most of the oil had disappeared, and it was concluded that the Gulf Sea had an abundance of an oil-eating microbe, which helped clear up the oil spill. The rest of the world do not take any sort of interest in this microbe, however the Republic of South Africa sets up a secret government research facility to carry out further research on this microbe. This is the starting point of a series of events, which would see the whole landscape of world dominance and diplomacy turning on its head. However these series of events can be broken down into 4 main different sub-categories, which lead to the day of the simulation of FSC at SLMUN 2013. Page | 13 www.slmun.org

The Ascendency of the Republic of South Africa to a Super Power

The Republic of South Africa in 2014 set up a secret research government facility to carry out research on the oil-eating microbe, this is an event which redefines the countrys future. Then, in 2019 the government discovers it has oil reserves just off its coast. It does not reveal this information to the public. It is at that point that it sees that it can use the oil-eating microbe and its untapped oil reserves to its advantage. The government orders the development of an oileating bacteria. Its initial plan is to spread this oil-eating virus amongst oil fields around the world and to then to sell its own oil when the rest of the world needed it the most. However, confident that it would not fail in this venture, the South African government immediately begins devising a mechanism to spread the virus. It decides to use the international environment awareness promoting organization, Greenpeace for this purpose. The South African government funds a multi billion dollar marketing campaign for Greenpeace against all top oil producing companies. The campaign hits these companies hard, as numerous oil accidents in the past had already affected their reputation. Fearing a slump in business, the oil companies give in and agree to host talks with Greenpeace. In 2019, after numerous conferences between Greenpeace and the top oil producing companies, both parties agree for Greenpeace to carry out audits on every single oilrig around the world to ensure it is not affecting the environment. This is one of the biggest successes Greenpeace achieves since its inception. In 2023, scientist at the secret research facility finally develops an oil-eating virus, and the government wished to test it immediately. Since it did not want to test it on a nation, which had the capabilities to carry out a proper investigation on the virus, it decided to try the virus on the Fula oil field, in South Sudan. The test is a success as the oil field eventually dries up after a time period of around three months. Like South Africa predicted, the government of South Sudan doesnt not have the resources or the capabilities to understand the situation, thus the event is passed off as a freak event. The government of South Africa then contacts the Private military company providing security to Greenpeace auditors who carry out the yearly audits on oilrigs. It strikes a deal with the PMC in return for the distribution of the oil-eating virus around all the oilrigs. The plan is an overwhelming success, as the virus spreads across oil fields around the world. Every country is taken with surprise, and even by the time tests begin to start on the virus, almost half the oil Page | 14 www.slmun.org

reserves around the world are depleted. Eventually, within 3 months all oil fields around the world dry out. Chaos as never seen before grips the whole world. Everyone knew oil would one day run out, but no one was prepared for a crisis of this proportion. As the world descends into more chaos, South Africa taps into its oil reserves at this opportune moment and sell the oil at high prices. The rest of the world has no option but to buy it. South Africa soon becomes the richest country in the world, and its economy grows exponentially. It eventually becomes the most powerful country in the world. During this period of time, while a majority of the African countries were facing an economic crisis, South Africa offers a way out. It offers nations an opportunity to join forces with South Africa, and to work under its leadership. Using this guise, South Africa is able to convince 42 out of the 60 African countries to join it, and The Greater South Africa is born. Its first act as a super-power, fuelled by the vast amounts of mineral wealth in the region, is to attempt to relocate the United Nations headquarters to the GSA in order to garner more influence within the United Nations. With the whole African continent backing this move, it succeeds; the United Nations headquarters is relocated to the GSA. However the GSA does not stop there, it then plans to create the worlds lar gest free trade zone with the European Union. This once again, is a decisive move. The European Union was already in trouble with a very weakened economy and high rates of unemployment. Therefore it was a question of loyalty towards the European Union, or the question of taking the easy way out by joining the GSA. The GSA continues to grow while showing great support for its African counterparts

The Decline of the United States of America

Ever since the recession in the late 2000s, the economy of the USA never recovered. Although there was optimism of the economy recovering, unemployment continued to rise and the Page | 15 www.slmun.org

economic situation continued to worsen. However, the persisting issue of lax gun laws was never resolved either. Riots and demonstrations become a common occurrence across the country. Slowly but surely the government knew a revolution was coming, however it lacked the power to do anything. When the oil crisis hit, USA was a country that suffered greatly. Its economy almost came to a standstill. Civilians began wide spread protests and riots. Mexican gangs flooded into the country amid weak border control. As the situation got worse, cities slowly began to fall to organized gangs. These gangs began to stockpile weapons and take control of the food supplies. The USA eventually descended into a state of lawlessness and the White House had totally lost control of the country besides a few high priority cities and the many military bases housing nuclear warheads, which too were under constant attack by the many gangs running rampage across the country vying for supremacy among each other as well. Identifying the issue of the nuclear weapons of USA falling into wrong hands, the GSA sponsors and passes a resolution allowing it to secure all of USAs nuclear warheads. The newly formed republic of Korea eventually invades the USA.

The New Republic of Korea

North Korea was always deemed as a failed state, however no one was really 100% sure as to what was happening within the country. North Koreas economy was never too dependent on fossil fuels. When the oil crisis hit, North Korea began to switch to its highly developed nuclear technology. It was supplied uranium by the Russian federation. Thus the oil crisis did not majorly affect its economy. Using the uranium it had now received, North Korea developed and successfully tasted a range of nuclear warheads. As a result of the failure of the USA, South Korea was very vulnerable. Its economy suffered drastically due to the oil crisis, and unemployment and poverty was widespread. Identifying the opportunity, North Korea carried out a full-scale invasion of South Korea backed by the Chinese military. The Republic of Korea is born. Given the anarchy and lawlessness set on by the oil crisis, the people of ROK almost welcome the North Koreans. It then turns its attention towards it long time adversary the United States of America. Identifying the fact that USA was in a state of lawlessness, and also seeing that it was now weakened as the GSA had secured it nuclear weapons, the Republic of Korea carry out a successful full scale of invasion of the USA, again militarily backed by China. The Page | 16 www.slmun.org

invasion goes as planned, and the USA become the property of the Republic of Korea. The Republic of Korea is currently a stable regime, backed heavily by China in terms of its economy and military.

The Middle East

Ever since the Arab Spring, the Middle East had never been that stable. However thanks to the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Countries) and the OPEC, the Middle East had some flourishing economies such as that of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. However, the Middle Eastern economy was heavily dependent on oil. Therefore, it was the worst hit when the oil crisis hit. Most economies immediately failed, as these countries had no back-up plan in case their oil supplies dried out. On the other hand, USAs biggest ally in the Middle East, Israel, was facing bigger problems. Ever since USA fell, it had lost its sense of security. It didnt have its big brother to protect it anymore. Russia had sold its uranium and nuclear technology to Iran as well. This meant that using its current technology; Iran was able to rapidly develop as nuclear superpower. It had a very powerful military. Iran then carries out a full-scale invasion of Israel and re-instates the Palestinian people to their original land. A mass exodus similar to Biblical times ensue as the Israeli people are forced from their homes It then mobilizes its forces to carry out an invasion of the Middle East. Using its military and nuclear power it successfully takes control of the whole Middle East. Iran then releases a statement to the world saying, It did not invade the Middle East, it merely wanted to cleanse the Middle East of extremist and terrorist groups. Iran then immediately accepts responsibility for the oil-eating virus that was spread.

Date of Simulation: 5th to 7th August 2049

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We sincerely hope that you will expand your horizons, make unforgettable memories, meet new friends and enjoy every second of SLMUN 2013. All the very best!

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