DNV Software

Offshore Consequence Modelling

How you can use DNV software to easily model offshore scenarios

Contents

Background

Onshore v. Offshore Offshore Consequence Modelling

Examples

Smoke Modelling Turbine Exhaust Modelling

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Offshore versus Onshore

Onshore considerations

Relatively open Off-site Impacts Immediate impacts to the public and/or workers

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Offshore Risk Considerations

Enclosed/confined space

Impingement Escalation Confined explosions Flares Gas turbine exhaust Impairment of Temporary Refuge (TR) Impairment of escape, evacuation and rescue (EER) facilities

Escape

Subsea Releases

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Offshore Consequence Modelling

What special consequences may be modelled? Escalation Flares Impingement Smoke Subsea releases Gas turbine exhaust

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Offshore Consequence Modelling

What information do we need? What are the physical constraints of an offshore platform? How will this affect my consequence modelling? What assumptions do I need to make? Which results are most useful?

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Software Tools
PHAST

Consequence modelling tool Includes models for all aspects of a release from discharge and dispersion to end fire, explosion and toxic effects

NEPTUNE

Advanced risk analysis tool Includes models for consequence modelling, leak frequency generation, event tree modelling and offshore specific requirements (ship collision, EER, etc.)

Model Spreadsheets

Expert consequence modelling tool Individual spreadsheets for each consequence model Offers more modelling flexibility than is available through the standard software

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DNV Software

Practical Examples

Smoke Dispersion
Smoke generation is caused by

Fires from initiating release Large fires due to escalation

Smoke dispersion can lead to

Impairment of EER facilities Impairment of TR

We want to look at distance to concentration results, specifically:

Does the cloud reach the TR? How long is it over the TR? Will it ingress into the TR?

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Smoke Dispersion Assumptions

Combustion products are primarily a mixture of nitrogen, steam, carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide.

High proportion of nitrogen in air Nitrogen tends to dominate in hot combustion products Nitrogen properties representative of mixture

For hydrocarbon fuels the stoichiometric ration is 15 kg air/kg fuel

Well ventilated areas Sufficient air for complete combustion Smoke production rate = 16 x fuel burning rate

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Smoke Dispersion Assumptions

Real smoke plume tends to be longer than predicted dispersions of nitrogen gas Artificially extend the plume using calm weather
conditions, eg F stability

High temperature

However if too hot, combustion products would tend to rise clear and give false impression that TR is not impaired Temperature 600 C

Concentration of interest

1e4 ppm = 1% Indicative of edge of smoke plume that would lead to impairment of visibility

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Smoke Dispersion Example

The Unified Dispersion Model (UDM) can be used to model smoke dispersion using the previous assumptions. The UDM is part of PHAST/SAFETI, NEPTUNE and Model Spreadsheets. For this example we will be using PHAST.

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Smoke Dispersion in PHAST

Smoke generation from a pool fire User Defined Source Model

Material = Nitrogen Direction = Vertical

NB: Pool fire results will include burn rate from which release rate can be calculated.

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Smoke Dispersion in PHAST

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Turbine Exhaust Dispersion

Area of concern for the helideck

Offshore plant and equipment can cause localised environmental anomalies near the helideck and on available flight paths Can compromise helicopter safety (lift) Must be taken into account during installation design and modifications

We want to look at temperature profiles results, specifically:

Does the cloud interfere with the helideck? Does the cloud interfere with any flight paths?

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Turbine Exhaust Dispersion Assumptions

Exhaust is primarily a mixture of nitrogen, oxygen, carbon dioxide and steam.

Nitrogen composes approximately 75% of the mixture Nitrogen properties representative of mixture

Real exhaust plume tends to be longer than predicted dispersions of nitrogen gas Artificially extend the plume using calm weather
conditions, eg F stability

High temperature, approximately 500 C (optional)

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Turbine Exhaust Dispersion Example

The Unified Dispersion Model (UDM) can be used to model turbine exhaust dispersion using the previous assumptions. The UDM is part of PHAST/SAFETI, NEPTUNE and Model Spreadsheets. For this example we will be using PHAST.

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Turbine Exhaust Dispersion in PHAST

User Defined Source Model

Material = Nitrogen Direction = Horizontal

NB: Release rate and temperature are part of turbine design specifications. NB: Discharge velocity can be calculated based on release rate and exhaust exit area.

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Turbine Exhaust Dispersion in PHAST

Find detailed concentration and temperature information in the Detailed Dispersion report. Can extrapolate the concentration equivalent for temperatures of interest

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Turbine Exhaust Dispersion in PHAST

Concentration equivalents

Extrapolated by plotting a graph and generating trend line in Excel

Temperature ( C) 50 100 200 300 Concentration (ppm) 64,000 148,000 317,000 486,000

Temperature profile graphs

Can plot the concentration equivalents to get a view of the temperature profiles

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Turbine Exhaust Dispersion in PHAST

50 C 100 C 200 C 300 C

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Summary
Offshore consequence modelling presents very different challenges due to

Physical constraints of the platform Enclosed/confined space Escalation impacts Escape impacts Additional upstream aspects Risers, wellheads Subsea releases

However, these challenges can be met through the correct application of your existing software.

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2005 DNV Software

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