Modeling and Monitoring of the Operational Risk in Wind Farms South American Experience

Bernardo Reyes Vestas Mediterranean

Agenda

1.About Vestas Service in South America and Brazil 2.Modeling of the Risk in ind farms in o!eration ".Monitoring of the Risk in ind farms in o!eration #.$he Benefit for the %ustomer& Reduction of the Risk and Savings '.$he South America and Brazil ()!erience *.Structure to Su!!ort the +ynamic Risk Modeling and Monitoring ,.-.A /.Summary

About Vestas Service in South America and Brazil

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About Vestas Service in South America and Brazil

%a!acity already $3R ()* MW %a!acity under e)ecution (++ MW ()ecution about to Start ,-. MW Signed 2111 12* MW

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Main office 4ortaleza 4acility

Modeling the Risk in 2ind 4arms in 3!eration 2hen the ind farms start the o!eration0 the risk is modeling change the focus. ?o is not only the variable 6A% @load and chargesA or turbulence and the modeling includes&

4ailures Rates !er every 4ailure Mode Ambient $em!erature and 5umidity 6evel of !roduction S!in78! of the ind Seasonality. 9n South America that kind of !henom is named :$he Boy;$he <irl=

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Modeling the Risk in 2ind 4arms in 3!eration Site Selection +evelo!ment Bermits (ngineering %onstruction 3!eration

17" years

172 years

D 71D years

171D years

172 years

C21 years

2ind and Site Risk Modeling

6oad and %harges at +rive $rain Site %heck for $urbulences 2ind Sector Management $heoretical 6ifetime for Main %om!onents

Service Risk Modeling

Risk of every failure mode %BM for critical failures modes 3!timal ins!ection at minimum cost Real 6ifetime for Main %om!onents and Monitoring

Focus on 3ind farm4s technical feasi5ilit6

Focus on minimi'ing operati7e costs

Modeling the Risk in 2ind 4arms in 3!eration

4or that modeling the stages are&

@<eneral0 for (very Model of 2$<A

R%M Stage

@<eneral0 for (very Model of 2$<A

4M(%A Stage

@<eneral;6ocal0 for 2ind 4armA

Math Model Stage

R%M make a model of failures for all +evices

of the 2$<

4M(%A make a Euantification of the Risk of all failures modes Math Models give an Behaviour of (very 4ailures0 M$B4 and 5azard 4unction. $ranslates into %ontrolling your Risk by an o!timal maintenance !lan;%BM monitoring0 at Minimum %ost ith Ma)imum Availability

Modeling the Risk in 2ind 4arms in 3!eration

8sing an o n suite for the modeling the risk of every failure mode e considerer& Severity of every failure mode @not only the drive train failuresA 4reEuency0 historic data and im!rovements of 2$< %a!ability of detection (nvironment0 Safety0 %ost0 8navailability Behavior @Mortal 9nfantry0 ?ormal0 2ear0 %orrosionA Survival 4unction and theoretical R86

And define by risk the task needed to avoid;mitigate the effects by&

%BM @condition base monitoringA only for the critical failures modes @in redA Breventive Maintenance for standard failures modes @in greenA Run to failure strategy for lo im!act failures modes @in cyanA

Modeling the Risk in 2ind 4arms in 3!eration

2ith the !riorization of the failures modes based on risk the ne)t ste! is model the survival function for every failures mode. +e!ending of the criticality %MB changes into !reventive maintenance or Euantity of s!are7!arts.

Monitoring the Risk in 2ind 4arms in 3!eration

4or that modeling the stages are&

3!timal 9ns!ection 4reEuency Stage

@6ocal0 for 2ind 4armA

@6ocal0 for 2ind 4armA

S!are Barts Modeling Stage

R86 Monitoring Stage

@6ocal0 for 2ind 4armA

3!timal 4reEuency define the number of interventions de!ending and M$$R and also0 if reEuired !ortable or online eEui!ment. S!are Barts Modelling give a number of s!are !arts reEuired in house to control the Risk at Minimum %ost

of the cost0

M$B4

ind farm0 main

are7

R86 give an 2ear

Status of the devices to !lanning a re!lacement

hen fails

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Monitoring the Risk in 2ind 4arms in 3!eration

Vibrations Monitoring@3ffline or 3nlineA

3il Analysis @3ffline or 3nlineA

9nsulate 2ear Monitoring @3fflineA

Bartial +ischarges Monitoring @3fflineA 2ear Monitoring in slo s!eed devices @3fflineA

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9tGs !ossible monitoring all failures modes and eliminate all risk0 but the challenge is make at minimum cost of o!eration

Monitoring the Risk in 2ind 4arms in 3!eration

9n the industry the normal ratios for the different ty!es of maintenance to control the o!erational risk at minimum cost.

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of failures modes based on senseGs ins!ections and non7com!le) ins!ections @leakage0 noise0 tem!eratureA of failures modes needs condition monitoring @vibrations0 ultrasonic0 electrical testA

of failures modes fi)ed and !reventive maintenance0 to eliminate the e)ternal factors

,,8 no need maintenance0 only s!are7!arts *8

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of failures modes needs redesign and continuous im!rovement

South America and Brazil ()!erience

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South America and Brazil ()!erience

9n South America the reliability strategy to monitoring and controlling the o!erational risk0 starting at A!ril of 2111 give the ne)t results&
1 MH in direct savings for the customers by re!airs I9$ @Iust in $imeA ith lo est level of lost !roduction0 in one year of a!!lications of the risk monitoring 6o level of 6B40 under control by sym!toms monitoring for Brazil0 minor than the target of 1.'J 6o level of 6B40 under control by sym!toms monitoring for %hile0 Argentina and 8ruguay0 minor than the target of 1.'J 9m!rovement the commissioning and end of a lo im!act in 6B4 arranty !rocess ith

2ith the models0 in a middle indo of time @and de!ending of the ty!e of contractA the time of sto!!ed turbine by maintenance ill be reduce in a #1J

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Structure to Su!!ort the +ynamic Risk Modeling and Monitoring

A3M '111 is a !erformance guarantee centred around measuring energy based availability
Fi7e steps to esta5lishing lost production per WTG in the 3ind farm ( 1 , * $u5 height anemometer located at the meteorolog6 mast nearest to the WTG 2 A7erage production for tur5ines of the same model and 3ith the same configuration
' WTG 1 2

9rimar6 neigh5ouring tur5ine

Secondar6 neigh5ouring tur5ine

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WTG nacelle anemometer

+ 19%

$he risk that gets eliminated ith (nergy based Availability

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$hank you for your attention

4or %ontact& Bernardo Reyes %ruz0 Vestas Mediterranean bereyLvestas.com '*72/22'F22

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