Pakistan Weekly Update

StockSmart

AKD Equity Research / Pakistan

Weekly Review

Index & Volume Chart

300,000

26,751

13.0%

27,000

11.0%

26,950
26,682

290,000

26,900

9.0%

26,850

7.0%

Top-5 Volum e Leaders

280,000

26,800

5.0%

Sym bol

270,000

26,750

3.0%

Volum e (m n)

26,700

JSCL

164.07

260,000

ANL

71.29

250,000

26,600

1.0%

FCCL

43.61

240,000

26,550

3.0%

230,000

26,500

5.0%

BYCO

36.61

EFERT

32.23

26,863

26,650

3Feb

4Feb

ReadyVolume(LHS)

6Feb

7Feb
KSE100Index(RHS)

1.0%

POL

26,946

SSGC

310,000

Universe Gainers & Losers

(Index)

HMB

(Shrs'000)

ICI

Avg. Daily Turnover ('mn shares)

This week
283.53
Last week
299.49
Change
-5.33%

HCAR

US$bn
61.51
62.65
-1.83%

MTL

PkRbn
6,482.33
6,607.30
-1.89%

AGTL

Indices
KMI-30
Allshare
This week 44,090.97 19,881.18
Last week 44,186.56 20,244.31
Change
-0.22%
-1.79%

FATIMA

Indices
KSE-100
KSE-30
This week 26,681.78 19,255.94
Last week 26,784.34 19,296.75
Change
-0.38%
-0.21%

The market remained sluggish as the KSE-100 Index shed 0.38%WoW to end at 26,682
points on Friday, failing to sustain its high after closing at 26,863 points on Thursday.
Average daily turnover came off by 5.33%WoW to 284mn shares but this remains a
healthy run rate. Key news flows during the week included 1) low CPI reading for Jan14
where CPI clocked in at 7.9%YoY, 2) recommendation by the Senate Standing Committee to abolish GST on tractors, 3) announcement by the PTA Chairman that the PTA is
targeting the third week of Mar14 for the 3G/4G auction and 4) MoP proposal to deregulate prices of petroleum products. At the same time, political noise picked up this week as
negotiations between the TTP nominated committee and GoP representatives commenced. Within our coverage, key gainers during the week were DAWH (+12.4%WoW),
EPCL (+6.9%WoW), FATIMA (+2.7%WoW), MTL (+2.3%WoW) and AGTL (+1.1%WoW).
On the flipside, the main losers during the week included POL (-4.1%WoW), SSGC (4.0%WoW), HMB (-3.9%WoW), HCAR (-3.2%WoW) and ICI (-2.9%WoW). Volumes during the week were led by JSCL (164.07mn shares), ANL (71.29mn shares), FCCL
(43.61mn shares), BYCO (36.61mn shares) and EFERT (32.23mn shares).

EPCL

research@akdsecurities.net
009221 111 253 111

DAWH

AKD Research

Mkt Cap.
This week
Last week
Change

7 February 2014

Source: KSE & AKD Research

(Index)

(mn)
700

28,000
26,700

600

25,400

500

24,100
22,800

400

21,500
300

20,200
18,900

200

17,600

100

16,300

0
Feb-14

Oct-13

Dec-13

Jul-13

Volume (LHS)

Aug-13

May-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

15,000

Outlook
The Pakistan Market remains largely secluded from global developments (e.g. tapering
QE3 by the US Fed). As such, market movement will likely be driven by the result season
picking pace where major results coming next week include the Nishat Group companies
including MCB, NPL, DGKC and NML as well as ENGRO and ABL. Progress on the GoP
-TTP talks is also likely to garner investor attention.

KSE- 100 Index

Important disclosures including investment banking relationships and analyst certification at end of this report. AKD Securities does and seeks to do business with companies

Important disclosures covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors
should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

AKD SECURITIES
Member: Karachi Stock Exchange

Find AKD research on Bloomberg

(AKDS<GO>), firstcall.com
and Reuters Knowledge

Copyright2014 AKD Securities Limited. All rights reserved. The information provided on this document is not intended
for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be
contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities or its affiliates to any registration requirement within
such jurisdiction or country. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitation
or offer by AKD Securities or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or provide any investment advice or service. AKD
Securities does not warrant the accuracy of the information provided herein.

www.akdsecurities.net

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

7 February 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

This Weeks Daily Reports

Feb 07, 2014
26,943

Banks CY13 Universe Result Preview, AKD Daily (Feb 07, 2014)

26,894

Banking sector results will start coming in from next week with MCB and ABL scheduled to announce their full-year CY13 results on Tuesday, Feb 11'14. Going by precedence, the rest of the major banks should announce their results in the ongoing month
as well. In this regard, the Big-6 banks in our coverage are projected to post combined
NPAT of PkR91.0bn in CY13E vs. combined NPAT of PkR95.9bn in CY12, translating
into a decline of 5%YoY (ex-NBP: +0.3%YoY). Key trends visible in full-year results are
expected to be 1) decline in NII largely due to margin contraction, 2) a sharp decline in
loan provisions (with the exception of NBP), 3) modest 5%YoY growth in non-interest
income and 4) in-control admin expense growth of ~10%YoY. We flag the possibility of
net provisioning reversals in 4QCY13, which may potentially lead to positive earnings
surprises. However, payout announcements should largely be on track. At current levels, we retain our preference for UBL (TP: PkR145/share), ABL (TP: PkR95/share) and
NBP (TP: PkR62.5/share).

26,845
26,796
26,747
26,698
26,649

15:48

15:03

14:19

13:36

12:53

12:10

11:27

9:59

10:43

9:15

26,600

Feb 06, 2014

Cement Dispatches Jan'14/7MFY14, AKD Daily (Feb 06, 2014)

26,905
26,880
26,855
26,830
26,805
26,780
26,755

15:29

14:37

13:45

12:54

12:04

11:13

9:30

10:22

26,730

Cement dispatches for Jan'14 increased by 2.6%YoY to clock in at 2.73mn tons.

Growth was largely led by a sharp 26.1%YoY increase in exports via sea resulting in an
overall increase in exports of 7.6%YoY to clock in at 563k tons. Growth in local dispatches on the other hand remained subdued, posting an increase of 1.3%YoY to
2.16mn tons. As a result, total 7MFY14 dispatches clocked in at 18.86mn tons posting
a tepid increase of 1.3%YoY. Local dispatches grew by 2.1%YoY to 14.15mn tons
while exports posted a decline of 0.8%YoY to 4.71mn tons. Decline in exports to Afghanistan will likely continue to be a drag on dispatch growth where competition from
Iranian cements and slow pace of progress on development projects in Afghanistan
have been holding back growth. The declining proportion of sales to Afghanistan
(7MFY14 share of 48% vs. 7MY13 share of 56%) and a dip in exports post a potential
US troop withdrawal may force manufacturers to look to the South for future expansions / consolidations.
Banks: Susceptible to lull in rate hike cycle, AKD Daily (Feb 04, 2014)

Feb 04, 2014

26,895
26,860
26,825
26,790
26,755
26,720
26,685

15:25

14:34

13:44

12:54

12:04

11:13

9:29

10:22

26,650

Pakistan Market: Jan14 Review & Outlook, AKD Daily (Feb 03, 2014)

Feb 03, 2014

26,991
26,958
26,925
26,892
26,859
26,826
26,793
15:26

14:35

13:45

12:54

12:04

11:13

9:29

26,760
10:22

CPI inflation for Jan'14 has clocked in at 7.91%YoY, higher than our projected 7.5%
YoY, but sharply lower than 9.18%YoY in Dec'13. This deceleration is largely attributable to a downtick in food inflation (+6.7%YoY/-0.1%MoM) and a contained 1.5%MoM
increase in the housing & utilities category. As a result, the 7MFY14 CPI average
comes to 8.6%YoY. At the same time, Core CPI (trimmed mean) also depicted a downward trend to clock in at 8.2%YoY in Jan'14 versus 8.7%YoY in Dec'13 and 9.9%YoY
in Jan'13. Going forward even if CPI increases by 0.8%MoM, the full-year average
should still fall within single digits (~9%YoY). Considering the Discount Rate already
stands at 10% and the PkR has depicted stability of late, we believe the SBP is likely
hold interest rates in the Mar'14 MPS. For our Banks Universe, we have incorporated
an average DR of 10.5% for CY14F where a reduction in this to 10% will, all else the
same, reduce our CY14F Universe proft estimates by 8% on average. For now however, we leave base-case estimates unchanged where risks to resumption of monetary
tightening emanate from 1) inordinate delay in targeted foreign flows, 2) snags in the
privatization process and 3) continued high GoP borrowing from the central bank.

Source:KSE&AKDResearch

The market welcomed the new year with its bullish theme intact as the benchmark KSE
-100 Index gained 6.03%MoM in Jan'14 to close at 26,784 points. In the process, the
Index has returned 27.5%FY14TD, on track to reach our base case Jun'14 Index target
of 27,800 points (bull case Index target: 29,700). Despite the strong performance, Pakistan continues to be attractive on valuations with an FY14F P/E of 8.6x compared to
regional average of 11.2x. At the same time, Pakistan's dividend yield at 5.9% far exceeds the regional average of 3.4%. In terms of corporate developments, key headlines
in the month included i) hike in GIDC for industrial sectors, ii) approval of concessionary
gas rate for Engro Fertilizer and iii) announcement by the Chinese group Shandong
Ruyi of investing US$2bn in the textile and energy sectors of Pakistan. At the same
time, lower than expected inflation reading with Dec'13 CPI clocking in at 9.18%YoY
buoyed market sentiment. Despite the positives, the market may potentially be heading

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

7 February 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

This Weeks Daily Reports

down correction territory with the MSCI EM Index down 3.7% over the past two weeks.
Taking cue, frontier markets have also underperformed with the MSCI FM Index down
1.2% over the past two weeks, where we may see a trickle down impact on the KSE100 Index as well. At current levels, we advocate a cautious stance in Feb'14 where
our preferred stocks include a blend of growth (NML, DGKC, FATIMA) and high D/Y
(HUBC, KAPCO, NBP).

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

7 February 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Regional Valuations (2014)

EPSGrowth
PE(x)
Pakistan
22% 8.56
Indonesia
13% 10.55
Malaysia
17% 11.65
Philippines
9% 14.49
Vitenam
16% 14.36
India
19% 12.53
China
15% 6.93

%
Pakistan
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Vitenam
India
China

ROE
21.38
18.76
13.64
14.73
18.47
17.50
14.02

DivdYld
5.82
2.54
3.51
2.58
n.a
1.94
4.04

Source: Bloomberg & AKD Universe

Major World Indices Performance

Country

BloombergCode

Pakistan
Srilanka
Thailand
Jakarta
Malaysia
Philippines
Vietnam
HongKong
Singapore
Brazil
Russia
India
China
S&P
DJIA
NASDAQComposite
UK
German
Qatar
AbuDhabi
Dubai
Kuwait
Oman
SaudiArabia
MSCIEM
MSCIFM

KSE100Index
CSEALLIndex
SETIndex
JCIIndex
FBMKLCIIndex
PCOMPIndex
VNINDEXIndex
HSIIndex
FSSTIIndex
IBXIndex
RTSSTDIndex
SENSEXIndex
SHCOMPIndex
SPXIndex
INDUIndex
CCMPIndex
UKXIndex
DAXIndex
DSMIndex
ADSMIIndex
DFMGIIndex
KWSEIDXIndex
MSM30Index
SASEIDXIndex
MXEFIndex
MXFMIndex

7Feb14

31Jan14

26,682
6,142
1,296
4,467
1,809
6,011
550
21,637
3,013
19,644
9,966
20,377
2,044
1,773
15,629
4,057
6,570
9,285
11,192
4,722
3,931
7,832
7,107
8,819
930
602

26,784
6,248
1,274
4,419
1,804
6,041
557
22,035
3,027
19,560
9,829
20,514
2,033
1,783
15,699
4,104
6,510
9,306
11,156
4,673
3,770
7,756
7,087
8,761
937
600

WoW

CYTD

0.38%
5.62%
1.70%
3.87%
1.74%
0.17%
1.08%
4.50%
0.25%
3.13%
0.50%
2.06%
1.21%
8.94%
1.81%
7.16%
0.47%
4.87%
0.43%
7.75%
1.39%
2.07%
0.67%
3.75%
0.56%
3.38%
0.51%
4.05%
0.45%
5.72%
1.14%
2.86%
0.91%
2.66%
0.23%
2.80%
0.33%
7.83%
1.04%
10.06%
4.27%
16.67%
0.98%
3.74%
0.27%
3.98%
0.67%
3.32%
0.72%
7.27%
0.35%
1.20%
Source: Bloomberg

International Major Currencies

SPOT

PkR/US$ Trend
109.0

7Feb14

31Jan14

80.973

81.311

WoW

CYTD

0.338

0.42%

1.17%

USD/PkR

105.370

105.470

0.100

USD/JPY

102.260

0.09%

0.04%

102.040

0.220

0.22%

2.90%

EUR/USD

1.357

1.349

0.008

0.62%

1.26%

GBP/USD

1.634

1.644

0.010

0.60%

1.30%

AUD/USD

0.894

0.876

0.018

2.08%

0.24%

NZD/USD

0.825

0.809

0.016

1.99%

0.40%

CHF/USD

0.902

0.907

0.005

0.54%

0.97%

CAD/USD

1.107

1.113

0.006

0.55%

4.18%

USD/KRW

1,074

1,081

6.520

0.60%

2.35%

CNY/USD

6.064

6.061

0.003

0.16%
0.04%
Source: Bloomberg

DollarIndex

108.0
107.0
106.0
105.0
104.0
103.0
102.0
101.0
100.0
99.0
98.0
Feb-14

Dec-13

Oct-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

May-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

97.0

Source: Bloomberg

Chg+/

Commodities

TRJ-CRB Index

SPOT

Units

7Feb14

31Jan14

WoW

CYTD

TRJCRB

Points

287.22

283.31

1.38%

2.52%

295

Nymex(WTI)

US$/bbl.

97.6

97.49

0.11%

0.83%

290

ICEBrent

US$/bbl.

107.02

107.2

0.17%

3.43%

285

N.GasHenryHub

US$/Mmbtu

7.1767

5.0098

43.25%

65.21%

280

Cotton

USd/Pound

92.3

92.75

0.49%

2.90%

Gold

US$/Tr.Oz

1261.67

1244.55

1.38%

4.65%

Sliver

US$/Tr.Oz

19.883

19.1775

3.68%

2.13%
2.68%

300

275

Feb-14

Jan-14

Dec-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Sep-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

270

Source: Bloomberg

Copper

US$/MT

7178

7096

1.16%

Platinum

US$/Oz

1387.5

1379.38

0.59%

1.32%

Coal

US$/MT

79.9

79.9

0.00%

5.56%

Source: Bloomberg

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

7 February 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Chart Bank
Earnings Yield vs. T-Bill (12M) Differential

Advance to Decline Ratio

(%)

1.60

12.0

1.50

10.0

1.40

8.0

1.30

6.0
4.0

1.20

2.0

1.10

FIPI Flows for the week

Feb14

Dec13

Oct13

Aug13

Jun13

Feb13

Jan14

Jun13

Dec12

May12

Oct11

Apr11

Sep10

Mar10

Aug09

Jan09

0.80
Jul08

(6.0)
Dec07

0.90

LIPI Flows for the week

(US$mn)

(US$'000)

Bank/DFI,
4.24

6.00

3,500
2,997

M.Funds,
(11.11)

4.00

3,000

2,625
2.00

2,500

2,000

(2.00)

Ind.,0.10

1,500

Co.,(2.22)

1,000

NBFC,4.70

(4.00)

980

(6.00)

275

(8.00)

Others,
(9.32)

(10.00)

06Feb14

07Feb14

KSE100

75%
65%
55%
45%
35%
25%
15%
5%
5%
15%
May13

Aug13

KSEAllShareIndex

Nov13

Feb14

AKDUniverse

MSCIEM
MSCIFM

Jan13

52%
47%
42%
37%
32%
27%
22%
17%
12%
7%
2%
3%
Feb13

KSE-100 vs. MSCI-EM & MSCI-FM

Nov13

AKD Universe vs. KSE-100 Index

Aug13

04Feb14

Jun13

03Feb14

Feb14

500

Mar13

Jun07

(4.0)

Apr13

1.00

(2.0)

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

7 February 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Valuations

7Feb14
EPS(PkR)
EPSchg(%)
EPSchg(%)ExFinancials
BookValueperShare(PkR)
Payout(%)
Valuations
PricetoEarnings(x)
PricetoBook(x)
PER(x)ExFinancials
P/BVS(x)ExFinancials
PricetoCF(x)
EarningsYield(%)
DividendYield(%)
EV/EBITDA(x)
Profitability
ReturnonEquity(%)
ReturnonAssets(%)
ChginSales(%)
GrossMargin(%)
OperatingMargin(%)
NetMargin(%)

2011A
8.12
24.30
25.15
38.13
52.26

2012A
8.75
7.72
6.72
43.80
50.74

2013A/E
9.68
10.59
18.50
49.35
51.57

2014F
11.82
22.14
26.51
55.30
49.87

2015F
13.88
17.39
19.23
61.96
47.16

12.46
2.65
13.42
3.24
20.43
8.03
4.20
7.93

11.56
2.31
12.57
2.85
21.64
8.65
4.39
7.01

10.46
2.05
10.61
2.42
10.84
9.56
4.93
6.17

8.56
1.83
8.39
2.11
19.12
11.68
5.82
5.37

7.3
1.63
7.03
1.86
11.78
13.71
6.47
4.74

21.31
3.85
17.34
23.41
14.47
11.38

19.98
3.56
17.28
21.79
12.95
10.46

19.61
3.81
6.12
22.80
13.99
10.90

21.38
4.12
13.68
22.36
13.85
11.71

22.40
4.39
10.52
22.85
14.61
12.44

Source: AKD Research

Market PER Chart 2014F

(x)
15
11
8

Jan14

Nov12

Aug11

May10

Mar09

Dec07

Sep06

Jul05

Source: AKD Research

Market P/BVS Chart 2014F

(x)
3.5
2.6
1.7

Jan14

Nov12

Aug11

May10

Mar09

Dec07

Sep06

Jul05

0.8

Source: AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

7 February 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

EPS

Symbol Coverage
Price
TPClusters
Stance Valuations

AKD Universe Active

(PkR)

Stocks

PE(x)

PB(x)

DY(%)

(PkR)
(PkR)

12A 13A/E 14F

12A 13A/E 14F 12A13A/E 14F 12A13A/E 14F
AutomobileandParts

IndusMotors
INDU
377.2 384.29 Neutral 54.7 42.7 49.16.98.87.7 1.71.7 1.58.5 6.66.4
PakSuzukiMotors
PSMC
163.8 173.46 Accumulate 11.9 24.3 21.713.86.87.5 0.90.8 0.71.5 3.12.4
ConstructionandMaterials

DGKC
96.1 105.47 Accumulate 9.4 12.6 12.110.27.67.9 1.30.9 0.81.6 3.13.1
DGKhanCement
Chemicals

EngroPolymerChemicals
EPCL
16.1 16.49 Neutral 0.11.11.1 138.4 15.1 14.0 1.71.5 1.4
ICIPakistanLimited
ICI
311.7 228.39
Sell
10.57.4 17.829.6 41.9 17.5 2.82.8 2.51.8 1.62.9
LotteChemicalPakistanLtd.
LOTCHEM 7.2 8.53 Accumulate 0.0(0.3) 0.6 n.m n.m 12.1 0.90.9 0.83.5
EngroCorporation
ENGRO
176.3 196.20 Accumulate 2.6 18.7 22.967.69.47.7 2.11.2 1.1
EngroFertilizersLimited
EFERT
49.1 55.45 Accumulate (2.3) 4.25.6(21.7) 11.68.7 4.02.9 2.2
DawoodHerculesLimited
DAWH
76.0 71.83 Reduce 2.09.2 13.137.28.25.8 1.9 n.a n.a1.3
FaujiFert.BinQasimLtd.
FFBL
42.8 49.33 Accumulate 4.66.06.69.27.16.5 3.22.5 2.6 10.5 12.8 14.6
FaujiFertilizerCompany
FFC
114.0 138.62
Buy
16.4 15.8 16.47.07.26.9 6.66.0 5.8 13.6 14.0 14.3
FatimaFertilizer
FATIMA
29.1 35.09
Buy
2.94.15.010.07.25.8 2.11.8 1.56.9 6.96.9
FoodProducers

EngroFoodsLimited
EFOODS 102.1 80.92
Sell
3.40.32.630.2 371.1 39.3 7.86.8 5.8
Oil&Gas

Oil&GasDevelopmentCo.
OGDC
273.4 265.50 Neutral 21.6 21.1 27.612.6 13.09.9 4.43.6 2.92.7 3.04.2
PakOilfields
POL
508.0 612.57
Buy
50.1 45.8 59.110.1 11.18.6 3.43.5 3.2 10.3 8.99.1
PakistanStateOil
PSO
343.8 335.18 Neutral 36.7 50.8 76.89.46.84.5 1.71.4 1.11.6 1.52.9
Electricity

HubPowerCo.
HUBC
63.0 77.41
Buy
7.18.19.68.97.86.5 2.42.2 2.19.5 12.7 14.3
KotAdduPowerCompany
KAPCO
64.7 63.00 Neutral 6.98.49.19.47.77.1 2.42.3 2.3 10.7 11.6 13.5
FixedLineTelecommunication

PakistanTelecommunication PTC
28.8 32.5 Accumulate 2.22.93.413.09.98.6 1.41.3 1.3 6.8 8.5
PersonalGoods

NishatMills
NML
135.9 141.38 Neutral 10.0 16.6 19.013.58.27.1 1.30.8 0.72.6 2.93.7
NCL
64.2 61.61 Neutral 3.5 11.4 14.818.45.64.3 2.11.6 1.22.6 2.87.0
NishatChunianLtd.
Banks

AlliedBankLimited
ABL
87.0 95.03 Accumulate 11.4 10.7 11.07.68.17.9 1.81.5 1.46.8 6.36.9
BankAlFalah
BAFL
27.7 26.95* Accumulate 3.43.33.88.28.37.3 1.21.2 1.17.2 5.46.3
HabibBankLimited
HBL
165.0 154.97 Reduce 16.7 16.3 18.29.9 10.19.1 1.71.6 1.54.1 5.25.8
MCBBankLimited
MCB
283.0 255.00 Reduce 20.9 22.2 22.413.5 12.7 12.7 2.72.5 2.34.2 4.95.3
NationalBankofPakistan
NBP
58.1 62.50 Accumulate 7.95.78.07.4 10.37.2 0.80.8 0.7 10.5 7.79.5
UnitedBankLtd
UBL
134.1 145.00 Accumulate 15.7 15.0 15.98.58.98.4 1.61.6 1.46.3 6.36.7
*TPforBAFLrisestoPkR30/shareuponsuccessfulWaridstakesale

Source: AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

7 February 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Coverage Clusters Performance

Stocks

Sym bol

Price
7-Feb-14

1M

CYTD

1 Year
High

1 Year
Low

26681.78

1.6

14.9

14.8

53.5

5.6

27104.70

17492.00

AGTL
MTL

206.27
473.61

-4.0
-3.5

3.2
-0.4

-5.6
-6.8

-11.7
-9.1

-2.9
-1.8

235.93
519.58

197.00
433.73

INDU
PSMC

377.20
163.83

7.0
-1.1

13.9
33.8

5.1
8.9

32.4
72.1

13.3
6.5

398.10
167.70

282.00
97.29

DGKC
LUCK

96.07
308.69

4.4
-1.9

32.4
19.4

11.0
34.7

71.4
95.9

12.1
2.9

95.63
321.67

57.89
160.97

EPCL
ICI
LOTCHEM
DAWH
ENGRO
FATIMA
FFBL
FFC

16.06
311.73
7.15
75.99
176.34
29.10
42.83
114.01

2.2
19.8
-7.1
27.1
3.7
-2.0
-3.6
-1.8

28.8
85.1
8.7
43.3
32.4
7.9
8.6
2.6

25.2
88.9
-6.0
36.0
20.7
17.2
3.4
4.6

53.8
106.5
-6.2
123.4
86.7
13.1
12.4
-4.1

19.8
23.2
-2.6
35.4
11.3
1.9
-2.2
1.8

16.66
298.25
8.89
69.01
186.91
30.16
45.42
119.75

9.29
135.37
6.46
35.76
94.44
21.29
36.90
101.90

EFOODS

102.13

-12.9

16.6

-18.5

-13.0

-2.2

162.22

80.37

39.61

4.2

51.3

28.2

59.6

6.0

40.37

23.57

OGDC
POL
PSO

273.36
508.00
343.78

-4.3
-1.1
1.7

2.4
8.9
17.6

9.2
-3.1
-2.3

40.9
8.3
80.6

-1.1
2.1
3.5

287.84
531.92
367.10

197.32
435.37
184.67

HUBC
KAPCO

62.96
64.70

-1.4
2.4

0.8
7.1

-7.5
10.2

28.0
19.6

3.7
4.8

73.42
68.34

50.13
49.53

PTC

28.81

-2.2

5.8

7.3

48.0

1.3

31.70

17.46

NCL
NML

64.20
135.89

1.7
1.2

21.2
36.1

3.1
32.0

70.5
108.5

6.6
6.8

68.82
140.79

43.31
67.46

ABL
AKBL
BAFL
HBL
HMB
MCB
MEBL
NBP
UBL

87.04
14.00
27.69
165.01
24.50
283.04
38.17
58.09
134.08

-3.8
0.1
0.7
1.1
-4.1
-2.5
-2.1
-0.9
-1.4

3.3
29.0
12.8
10.6
9.0
-3.1
-0.9
13.8
5.0

10.9
8.9
27.4
-0.1
29.4
1.0
4.0
1.3
7.7

30.3
-10.3
48.2
54.8
32.4
47.3
46.1
29.7
46.4

-3.3
0.0
2.4
-1.0
-2.3
0.7
-3.1
0.1
1.2

94.51
16.15
28.66
181.57
26.16
316.87
40.87
59.45
154.21

55.01
10.76
14.77
88.00
14.61
183.00
24.11
37.66
82.16

KSE-100 Index

Absolute Perform ance (%)

3M
6M
12M

Industrial Engineering
Al-Ghazi Tractor
Millat Tractors
Autom obile and Parts
Indus Motors
Pak Suzuki Motors

Construction and Materials

DG Khan Cement
Lucky Cement
Chem icals
Engro Polymer Chemicals
ICI Pakistan Limited
Lotte Pakistan PTA Limited
Daw ood Hercules
Engro Chemical
Fatima Fertilizer
Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd.
Fauji Fertilizer Company
Food Producers
Engro Foods Limited
Non Life Insurance
Adamjee Insurance

AICL

Oil & Gas

Oil & Gas Development Co.
Pak Oilfields
Pakistan State Oil
Electricity
Hub Pow er Co.
Kot Addu Pow er Company

Fixed Line Telecom m unication

Pakistan Telecommunication
Personal Goods
Nisaht (Chunian) Ltd.
Nishat Mills
Banks
Allied Bank Limited
Askari Bank Limited
Bank AlFalah
Habib Bank Limited
Habib Metropolitan Bank
MCB Bank Limited
Meezan Bank Limited
National Bank of Pakistan
United Bank Ltd

Source: KSE & AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

7 February 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Economic Snapshot
End Month Data

Units

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

T-bill
3M

9.20

9.37

9.42

9.41

9.26

8.93

9.00

9.15

9.47

9.63

9.93

6M

9.32

9.46

9.44

9.42

9.16

9.01

9.20

9.35

9.68

9.88

10.02

12M

9.37

9.47

9.46

9.43

9.19

9.03

9.34

9.48

9.81

9.96

10.12

PIB 10Y

11.99

12.00

11.92

11.25

10.86

11.57

11.97

12.28

12.83

12.93

12.90

KIBOR 6M

9.43

9.54

9.58

9.60

9.39

9.08

9.15

9.29

9.55

9.52

10.13

Discount rate

9.50

9.50

9.50

9.50

9.00

9.00

9.00

9.50

9.50

10.00

10.00

Headline inflation

7.40

6.60

5.80

5.10

5.90

8.26

8.55

7.40

9.10

10.90

9.18

Core inflation

9.6

9.00

8.70

8.10

7.80

8.20

8.50

8.70

8.40

8.50

8.20

Food inflation

7.4

6.30

5.50

6.50

7.90

9.20

10.30

7.90

9.80

13.00

9.30

1,835

2,134

2,130

2,175

2,197

2,095

1,996

2,622

1,864

1,804

2,275

3,383

3,687

3,909

4,346

3,940

3,814

3,572

3,791

3,281

3,651

3,561

(1,548)

(1,553)

(1,779)

(2,171)

(1,743)

(1,719)

(1,576)

(1,169)

(1,417)

(1,847)

(1,286)

1,028

1,119

1,216

1,186

1,165

1,404

1,233

1,283

1,348

1,131

1,385

(596)

(513)

(354)

(346)

(163)

46

(575)

(574)

(166)

(572)

285

6,645

6,777

6,709

6,950

7,316

7,069

7,174

7,125

7,133 7,309.45 7,529.37

3,868

3,873

3,857

3,906

3,869

3,788

3,817

3,831

3,921 4,008.03 4,071.47

3,909

4,024

3,893

3,942

4,129

3,837

3,708

3,873

3,776 4,035.48 4,069.80

11.52

11.50

11.42

11.49

11.36

11.28

11.11

11.10

11.10

11.13

11.07

5.34

5.26

5.23

5.15

5.01

4.97

4.83

4.79

4.90

4.89

5.05

6.18

6.24

6.19

6.34

6.35

6.31

6.28

6.31

6.20

6.24

6.02

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

Inflation

External Indicators
Export (PBS)

US$ (mn)

Import (PBS)

US$ (mn)

Trade Deficit (PBS)

US$ (mn)

Home Remittances

US$ (mn)

Current Account

US$ (mn)

Banking Sector
Deposits

PkR (bn)

Advances

PkR (bn)

Investments

PkR (bn)

Weighted avg lending rate

Weighted avg deposit rate

Spread rate

Public Finance
Tax collection

PkR (mn)

Direct taxes

PkR (mn)

Indirect Taxes

PkR (mn)

140,264 190,357 153,199 173,268 267,608

48,743

78,649

48,462

60,982 128,889

91,521 111,708 104,737 112,286 138,719

Currency
Reserves (RHS)

US$ (mn)

USDPkR - Interbank

PkR/USD

12,936

12,250

11,812

11,474

11,020

10,287

9,998

9,995

9,525

8,238

8,168

98.16

98.42

98.48

98.52

98.94

101.90

104.51

105.24

106.89

107.56

107.13

Source: SBP, PBS & AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

7 February 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Analyst Certification
We, the AKD Research Team, hereby individually & jointly certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject securities and issuers. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is,or will be, directly or indirectly,
related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. We further certify that we do not have any beneficial holding
of the specific securities that we have recommendations on in this report.

AKD Research Team

Analyst

Tel no.

E-mail

Coverage

Naveed Vakil
Raza Jafri, CFA
Usman Zahid
Anum Dhedhi
Raza Hamdani
Bilal Alvi
Qasim Anwar
Hassan Quadri
Azher Ali Quli
Nasir Khan
Tariq Mehmood

+92 111 253 111 (692)

+92 111 253 111 (693)
+92 111 253 111 (693)
+92 111 253 111 (637)
+92 111 253 111 (693)
+92 111 253 111 (647)
+92 111 253 111 (680)
+92 111 253 111 (639)
+92 111 253 111 (646)
+92 111 253 111 (646)
+92 111 253 111 (643)

naveed.vakil@akdsecurities.net
raza.jafri@akdsecurities.net
usman.zahid@akdsecurities.net
anum.dhedhi@akdsecurities.net
raza.hamdani@akdsecurities.net
bilal.alvi@akdsecurities.net
qasim.anwar@akdsecurities.net
hassan.quadri@akdsecurities.net
azher.quli@akdsecurities.net
nasir.khan@akdsecurities.net
tariq.mehmood@akdsecurities.net

Director - Research & Business Development

Pakistan Economy & Commercial Banks
E&P, FMCGs & Fertilizer
Pakistan Economy
Fertilizer, Oil Marketing & Power
Textiles, Cements & Chemical
Technical Analysis
Research Production / Autos
Research Production
Research Production
Library Operations

DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS

This publication/communication or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of AKD Securities
Limited. AKD Securities Limited has produced this report for private circulation to professional and institutional clients only. The information,
opinions and estimates herein are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction where doing so
would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities Limited to any additional registration or licensing requirement
within such jurisdiction. The information and statistical data herein have been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable and complied by
our research department in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified and we make no representation or warranty as to
its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Any opinions or estimates herein reflect the judgment of AKD Securities Limited at the date of this
publication/ communication and are subject to change at any time without notice.
This report is not a solicitation or any offer to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned herein. It is for information purposes only and is not
intended to provide professional, investment or any other type of advice or recommendation and does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual recipients. Before acting on any information in this publication/communication, you
should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice. Neither AKD Securities
Limited nor any of its affiliates or any other person connected with the company accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential
loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained therein.
Subject to any applicable laws and regulations, AKD Securities Limited, its affiliates or group companies or individuals connected with AKD
Securities Limited may have used the information contained herein before publication and may have positions in, may from time to time purchase or sell or have a material interest in any of the securities mentioned or related securities or may currently or in future have or have had a
relationship with, or may provide or have provided investment banking, capital markets and/or other services to, the entities referred to herein,
their advisors and/or any other connected parties.
AKD Securities Limited (the company) or persons connected with it may from time to time have an investment banking or other relationship,
including but not limited to, the participation or investment in commercial banking transaction (including loans) with some or all of the issuers
mentioned therein, either for their own account or the account of their customers. Persons connected with the company may provide corporate
finance and other services to the issuer of the securities mentioned herein, including the issuance of options on securities mentioned herein or
any related investment and may make a purchase and/or sale of the securities or any related investment from time to time in the open market or
otherwise, in each case either as principal or agent.
This document is being distributed in the United State solely to "major institutional investors" as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the U.S. Securities
Exchange Act of 1934, and may not be furnished to any other person in the United States. Each U.S. person that receives this document by its
acceptance hereof represents and agrees that it: is a "major institutional investor", as so defined; and understands the whole document. Any
such person wishing to follow-up any of the information should do so by contacting a registered representative of AKD Securities Limited.
The securities discussed in this report may not be eligible for sale in some states in the U.S. or in some countries.
Any recipient, other than a U.S. recipient that wishes further information should contact the company.
This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose.

10