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PAKISTAN
20 February 2014
KAPCO PA
Stock price as of 19 Feb Dec-13 target Upside/downside Valuation - DDM based Rs Rs % Rs
Power Generation & Distribution Sector Market cap Rs bn 30-day avg turnover US$m Market cap US$m Number shares on issue m
Investment fundamentals
Year end 30 Jun Total revenue EBIT EBIT Growth Recurring profit Reported profit EPS rep EPS rep growth EPS rec EPS rec growth PE rep PE rec Total DPS Total div yield ROA ROE EV/EBITDA Net debt/equity Price/book m m % m m Rs % Rs % x x Rs % % % x % x 2013 97,705 18,904 2.6 7,353 7,353 8.4 21.1 8.4 21.1 6.8 6.8 7.5 13.1 11.8 28.7 3.6 28.2 2.0 2014E 2015E 119,713 122,123 14,481 17,568 (23.4) 21.3 6,700 8,914 6,700 8,914 7.6 (8.9) 7.6 (8.9) 7.5 7.5 6.3 11.0 8.7 26.2 5.4 87.7 2.0 10.1 33.0 10.1 33.0 5.6 5.6 8.0 14.0 11.6 31.6 4.4 77.5 1.8
Impact
21% YoY drop in 1H earnings: Kapco unveiled its 2Q results on18th Feb and delivered negative surprises in both earnings and dividend. Earnings in 2Q of PKR1.27 is down 38% QoQ primarily driven by (1) steep jump in overhaul and repair cost, and (2) lower thermal efficiency. Kapcos one of the three energy blocks underwent a major overhaul in 2Q14 in compliance with its maintenance cycle. The overhaul was earlier scheduled for last year however stretched into FY14 due to overhaul plans on other plants. One-off O&M cost on KAPCOs energy block I (326MW) is primarily behind weak set of results. The block has resumed operations in Dec14. Along with overhaul cost, drop in thermal efficiency of the complex has also dragged down bottom-line in 2Q. This is attributable to (1) sub optimal production due to overhaul, (2) fuel quality, and (3) not so smooth plant running. We estimate QoQ drop in thermal efficiency of 70-100bps. Load factor decreased to 48% in 2Q: In-line with past practice, electricity generation has slipped in 2Q, dragging down load factor to 48%. LSFO reliance remains high in absence of gas allocation. Big improvement in net interest cost: The impact of big pay-down of energy debt in 4Q is also visible in 2Q with net interest spread (differential b/w interest income and interest expense) coming down to merely PKR36mn in 2Q14 from a high of PKR1.5bn in 4Q13. We believe this has led by (1) improved receivables position relative to FY13, and (2) Kapco gradually moving away from expensive supplier credit priced at T-bill+6% to bank loans (Kibor+1-1.5%) to fund the remaining overdue receivables. Reasons for strong turnaround in 2H earnings: There are at least three reasons to believe in strong rebound in 2H earnings:
1- Improved efficiency of the whole complex following completion of repair and overhaul of an important energy unit. We expect 50-100bps uptick in overall thermal efficiency of the complex. 2-Absence of repair and overhaul cost which dragged 2Q earnings. Kapcos
KAPCO
Analyst
Mohammad Fawad Khan, CFA 92 21 5612290-94 Ext 338 fawad.khan@fs.com.pk
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outage schedule suggests the other two blocks are unlikely to face outage due to overhaul until at least next year. 3-Impact of revision in indexation factor. The escapable component in the tariff 1H earnings incorporated an average exchange rate of PKR98 prevailing during the 2H13. The tariff component in 2H14 will be based on average exchange rate in 1H14 which is up 7% over 2H13.
Revision in target price reflects changes in earnings estimate and roll-forward of TP to Dec14.
Price catalyst
3Q earnings substantiating our thesis on strong re-bound in earnings. Progress on conversion of auxiliary boiler to coal (610MW)
40%
1Q07
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0%
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% funded by creditors
% funded by banks
1Q14
The Kot Addu Power Company Limited (KAPCO) is Pakistans largest Independent Power Project (IPP) and its principal activities are to own, operate and maintain multi fuel fired power station with gross capacity of 1,600MW at a site in Kot Addu, District Muzaffargarh in the Punjab province. The company supplies power exclusively to WAPDA under a 25 year Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) extending up to 2021. The company has an exclusive agreement for supply of furnace oil with Pakistan State Oil (PSO). The shares of the company are listed on the Karachi, Lahore & Islamabad Stock Exchanges.