ASSUMPTION COLLEGE

Department of Economics & Global Studies

Worcester Economic Indicators

Local Economy Experiences Modest Growth in Fourth Quarter
Growth expected to pick up during first half of 2014 Worcester Economic Index

This report can be accessed online at: http://www1.assumption.edu/worcester-economic-indicators-project/

Fourth Quarter 2013

The Worcester Economic Index (WEI) is an index of economic indicators that measures the performance of the Worcester area economy. Three local employment variables are used to estimate the WEI: nonfarm payroll employment, household employment and the unemployment ratei. These variables are Figure 1: Worcester Economic Index combined to form an estimate of the January 1990 - December 2013 ii underlying path of the local economy. Figure 1 shows the estimated WEI going 100 iii back to 1990. The figure shows a 80 consistently growing economy during 60 most of the 1990s, the relatively shallow WEI recession in the early 2000s, and the 40 more significant fall-off during the Great 20 Recession of 2008-09. Since that time the WEI shows an economy experiencing a 0 slow recovery. 1990m1 1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 2015m1
Month

Table 1 shows the Worcester Economic Index over the past 13 months, its month-to-month change, and quarterly growth rate. While the WEI is calculated on a monthly basis it is best not to read too much into changes in any single month, but rather examine how the index has changed over the past 3-6 months. As the table shows, the WEI has been growing at about a 1% rate over most of the past year, with the exception being the second quarter of 2013 when the local economy was essentially flat. The lackluster performance during the second quarter caused the WEI to increase only 0.7% over the course of 2013.

(January 2001 = 100)

Worcester Economic Outlook

Month Rate, Annualized The Worcester Economic December 2012 1.0% Index is based on January 2013 employment and February 2013 March 2013 1.0% unemployment data for the April 2013 local economy. Of course, May 2013 June 2013 0.0% the Worcester region does July 2013 not exist in isolation but is August 2013 September 2013 1.1% part of the state, regional, October 2013 and national economy. In November 2013 December 2013 0.9% order to incorporate both national and local economic trends, an analysis of the future direction of the Worcester economy is completed in two parts. First, an estimate of the expected growth rate of the WEI is found using past estimates of the index as well as several national leading economic indicators. Second, a group of local leading indicators is examined in an effort to pick up differences between local and national economic trends.

Table 1 Worcester Economic Index (WEI) December 2012 December 2013 Worcester Change from Economic Index previous month 102.3 0.1 102.4 0.1 102.5 0.1 102.5 0.0 102.5 0.0 102.5 0.0 102.5 0.0 102.6 0.1 102.7 0.1 102.8 0.1 102.8 0.0 102.9 0.1 103.0 0.1

Quarterly Growth

In order to predict the future direction of the index a variety of leading economic indicators are used. Leading indicators are variables that often act as signals for changes in other variables. For example, since the WEI is based on local employment an increase in the amount of help wanted advertising may be an indicator that employment (and the WEI) will increase in the near future. Projecting WEI Growth In order to forecast growth in the Worcester economy over the next 6 months the recent growth rate of the WEI is combined with four leading economic indicators of the national economyiv. The first such indicator is changes in consumer expectationsv. When consumers are optimistic about future economic conditions, they are likely to spend and therefore positive changes in consumer expectations are taken as a sign that economic activity will be picking up in the future. The second leading indicator is changes in the S&P 500 indexvi, which reflects investor attitudes toward future business conditions. An increase in the S&P 500 may precede an improving economy. The third leading indicator is the interest rate spread which is the difference between the yield on a 10-year treasury bond and the federal funds ratevii. A larger interest rate spread indicates an expansionary monetary policy and therefore would predict a growing economy. The final leading indicator used is the Leading Credit IndexTMviii, which is a composite of several financial sector variables that are meant to capture credit market conditions. An increase in the Leading Credit IndexTM indicates financial conditions are less conducive to economic growth and may therefore lead an economic downturn. The four national leading indicators discussed above are used in combination with past growth of the WEI to forecast a six-month growth rate for the Worcester Economic Index. For the first six months of 2014, the model predicts growth of 1.5% to 1.7% on an

annualized basis. This estimate is somewhat higher than the growth over the latter half of 2013 which hovered around 1.0%. Following the format used by MassBenchmarksix in reporting their leading economic index for Massachusetts, the projected rate of growth is broken down according to how much the leading indicators contribute to the index being above or below its long-term trend. As Table 2 shows; the above trend growth forecast for the next 3-6 months is a result of favorable credit market conditions as measured by the Leading Credit Index, as well as the interest rate spread, while recent below trend growth in the WEI has a dampening effect on Table 2 Breakdown of Projected Growth of WEI the forecast. Table 2 shows both the 6-month growth forecast, annualized basis most recent growth forecast (1.7%) Quarter 4 Component December 2013 Average and the average for the prior three Trend 1.2% 1.2% months (1.5%). The former is of Consumer Expectations 0.0% -0.1% course more timely, but may be S&P 500 -0.1% 0.1% Interest Rate Spread 0.2% 0.2% sensitive to short-term changes in the Leading Credit IndexTM 0.6% 0.5% leading indicators. Finding the three WEI -0.1% -0.3% Total 1.7% 1.5% month average reduces the volatility of the forecast. Components may not add to total due to rounding. Local Leading Indicators As a complement to the forecast growth of the WEI, four other leading indicators are considered in order to further gauge the direction of the Worcester economy. Unlike the leading indicators utilized in the forecast of the WEI, each of these four indicators is specific to the local economy. The first local leading indicator is initial unemployment claimsx for the Worcester region, an increase in which signals a drop off in economic activity. The second indicator is the amount of online help-wanted advertising for the Worcester areaxi. An increase in help-wanted ads should be a precursor to increased hiring and employment. The third leading indicator is the number of new business incorporations in the local areaxii. An increase in incorporations may lead new hiring by those firms. Finally, since building permitsxiii are required before new residential construction can take place, an increase in building permits would foreshadow increases in future employment. In order to summarize the information provided by the local leading indicators a diffusion index is calculated. A diffusion index summarizes how many of the leading indicators are providing positive signals of the direction of the economy.xiv Table 3 shows the six-month diffusion index found using the four local leading indicators discussed above. The maximum value that a diffusion index can take on is 100. A diffusion index above 50 suggests a growing economy, while an index of less than 50 indicates the leading indicators are on balance pessimistic. During the past year the diffusion index for the Worcester area has been at or above 50 in all but one month. Because there is a lot of variation in the underlying leading indicators several months or quarters should be
Table 3 Diffusion Index for Four Leading Indicators December 2012 December 2013 Month December 2012 January 2013 February 2013 March 2013 April 2013 May 2013 June 2013 July 2013 August 2013 September 2013 October 2013 November 2013 December 2013 Diffusion Index 50.0 50.0 50.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 33.3 66.7 66.7

considered when interpreting a diffusion index. Since October when the index fell to 33 it has rebounded to provide a positive signal during each of the last two months.xv Figure 2 shows the pattern for the six-month diffusion index for the Worcester region since 2006. As you can see, the diffusion index was below 50 for much of 2006 and 2007, rose quickly in late 2009 and has been mostly above 50 since that time.
Index

Figure 2: Diffusion Index for Local Leading Indicators

Worcester Area, 2006 - 2013
100

80

60

40

20

0 2006m1 2008m1 2010m1 Month 2012m1 2014m1

To sum up, following a weak second quarter the Worcester Economic Index increased at approximately a 1.0% rate during the final two quarters of 2013. For the next 3-6 months, the WEI is projected to grow at about 1.5% based on a model that uses four national leading indicators and the WEI to forecast changes from trend growth. An analysis of the local leading indicators also point toward a growing economy in the coming year. The next Worcester Economic Indicators report will be issued in early May 2014. Additional information about this project is available at: http://www1.assumption.edu/worcester-economic-indicators-project/.
Prepared by: Thomas White, Ph.D. Department of Economics & Global Studies Assumption College 508-767-7556 twhite@assumption.edu February 5, 2014
i

Bureau of Labor Statistics. Payroll employment is obtained from the State and Area Employment Database (SAE) of the BLS. Household employment and unemployment rate is obtained from the Local Area Unemployment Database (LAU) of the BLS. All employment data is for the Worcester NECTA which consists of the city of Worcester and 39 surrounding towns in south central Massachusetts and northeaster Connecticut. ii Uses the methodology developed by Stock & Watson (1989), and employed by Clayton-Matthews & Stock (1998/99), Crone & Clayton-Matthews (2005), and Tebaldi & Kelley (2012) to estimate an index of the underlying economy using a state-space model. An explanation of how these methods were utilized for this project is available www.assumption.edu/economic-indicators-project.html. iii The WEI is scaled so that it tracks the growth of real GDP for the local economy over two time periods 1990-2000 and 2000-2013. iv The four indicators were selected from a set of eight indicators that are part of the Index of Leading Indicators produced monthly by The Conference Board. The indicators that were not included because they did not

contribute to predicting the growth of the WEI are: average weekly hours in manufacturing, consumer goods orders, capital goods orders, and ISM new orders. v Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, retrieved from The Conference Board, Business Cycle Indicators database. vi The Conference Board, Business Cycle Indicators database. vii The Conference Board, Business Cycle Indicators database. viii The Leading Credit Index is a composite of 6 financial sector variables. Retrieved from The Conference Board, Business Cycle Indicators database. ix http://www.massbenchmarks.org/indices/indices.htm x Massachusetts Department of Employment and Training xi The Conference Board Help Wanted Online (HWOL) xii Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts xiii U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey xiv For a description of the methodology used to calculate a diffusion index go to: http://www.conferenceboard.org/data/bci/index.cfm?id=2180 xv Due to changes in the way the Massachusetts Department of Employment and Training releases initial claims data to the public this data series has been unavailable over the latter part of 2013. Once this data is again available the diffusion index will be revised to take into account initial claims for the Worcester area.