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Title: BEYOND El Nio. By: Lippsett, Laurence, Scientific American Presents, !

"#$""%, "$$$ Data&ase: Aca'emic Searc( Premier BEYOND El Nio Contents . T(e Searc( for Patterns ". T(e Nort( Atlantic Oscillation %. Arctic an' Antarctic Oscillation #. T(e Pacific Deca'al Oscillation !. T(e Antarctic )ircumpolar *a+e ,. -*irin.- t(e Ocean Section: )L/0ATE /N 1L23 El Nio is not t(e only oceanic an' atmosp(eric e+ent t(at profoun'ly affects climate. Se+eral ot(er seesa4in. con'itions (a+e also &een unco+ere' Lon. &efore anyone e+er (ear' of t(e Pacific 4armin. calle' El Nio, a .uy name' 5osep( 'emonstrate' t(e enormous +alue of a relia&le climate forecast. 6is 'isco+ery 4asn7t pu&lis(e' in a scientific 8ournal &ut rat(er in a &oo9 calle' :enesis. T(e p(arao( of E.ypt (a' a 'istur&in. 'ream: se+en co4s, slee9 an' fat, emer.e' from t(e Nile ;i+er. Se+en .aunt an' t(in co4s follo4e' an' ate t(e fat ones. 5osep( interprete' t(e 'ream, 4arnin. t(at E.ypt 4oul' (a+e se+en years of plenty follo4e' &y se+en years of famine. 6e ur.e' t(e p(arao( to ta9e a'+anta.e of t(e .oo' years to store surplus .rain. So it 4as 'one. After se+en years of &umper crops t(rou.(out t(e re.ion, -t(ere 4as famine in all lan's< &ut in all t(e lan' of E.ypt t(ere 4as &rea'.All (uman en'ea+or (in.es on t(e +icissitu'es of climate, an' it is 'eep 4it(in t(e (uman race to 'efen' itself a.ainst nature an' to see9 some si.n, 'i+ine or ot(er4ise, of ne=t season7s 4eat(er. Sacrifices to t(e rain .o's not4it(stan'in., until recently climate forecastin. (a'n7t a'+ance' muc( in t(e millennia since 5osep(7s time. Only > years a.o one of t(is century7s most po4erful El Nios too9 us completely &y surprise. /n ?@" scientific e=perts (a' come to a consensus t(at no El Nio 4as formin., e+en as 4aters in t(e eastern tropical Pacific Ocean near Peru 4ere alrea'y (eatin. 4it( ine+ita&le an' catastrop(ic momentum. /t spar9e' a (ost of climate c(an.es: 'e+astatin. 'rou.(ts an' fires in Australia, floo'in. in normally ari' re.ions of Peru an' Ecua'or, unusual storms t(at rearran.e' )alifornia &eac(es, an' 4i'esprea' mortality of fis( an' &ir's. All tol', t(e El Nio t(at 4asn7t .oin. to (appen le' to t(ousan's of 'eat(s an' an estimate' A % &illion in 'ama.e. But from t(e as(es of t(at El Nio, 4(ic( persiste' from t(e 4inter of ?@" into t(e sprin. of ?@%, emer.e' a scientific &rea9t(rou.(. )au.(t off .uar', scientists rene4e' efforts to fi.ure out t(e ri''le of El Nio. T(ey &e.an to see (o4 t(e ocean an' atmosp(ere are intimately lin9e' in an oscillatin. r(yt(m. Li9e t4o people .oin. up an' 'o4n on eac( si'e of a seesa4, t(e ocean an' atmosp(ere continuously s(ift in response to eac( ot(er. T(e t4o ne+er ac(ie+e eBuili&rium< one si'e of t(e seesa4 is eit(er up or 'o4n. Eac( -position- creates its o4n 'istinct set of climate con'itions. T(e r(yt(m is comple= C &ut it isn7t ran'om. /f you coul' 'ecip(er it, you coul' anticipate 4(ere t(e climate 4as (ea'e'. At a &reat(ta9in. pace, researc(ers 'i' 8ust t(at, pre'ictin. t(e ne=t El Nio: ?@,D@>. -T(at mar9e' t(e &e.innin. of t(e mo'ern era of climate forecastin.,- says Nat(an 5. 0antua, a scientist at t(e 2ni+ersity of *as(in.ton. /nitial success 4it( El Nio (as inspire' a fe+eris( searc( for ot(er oscillations. An' sure enou.(, ami' t(e apparent cacop(ony of Eart(7s e+erDc(an.in. climate, more patterns are materialiEin.. S(iftin. o+er mont(s or 'eca'es, t(ese ne4ly i'entifie' patterns may spa4n 'ifferent climate c(an.es in 'ifferent parts of t(e .lo&e. -People in t(e fiel' realiEe' t(at El Nio 4as 8ust t(e lou'est an' most o&+ious oscillation,- 0antua says. Persua'e' t(at t(e oceans (elp to re.ulate our climate in Buasiperio'ic &ut potentially pre'icta&le 4ays, scientists aroun' t(e 4orl' are mo&iliEin. to 'eploy a .lo&al net4or9 of instruments C inclu'in. a flotilla of se+eral t(ousan' &uoys C t(at can monitor oceanic con'itions. 0uc( t(e 4ay net4or9s of lan'D&ase' meteorolo.ical o&ser+atories trac9 atmosp(eric con'itions to .i+e us fi+eD'ay forecasts, t(is oceanD&ase' array promises to .i+e us 5osep(Dli9e 4arnin.s t(at ne=t 4inter may &e col'er an' sno4ier t(an usual,

t(at ne=t year7s (urricane season may &e fierce, t(at 4e s(oul' loo9 for fis( in t(is part of t(e ocean an' prepare for 'isease out&rea9s in t(at part of t(e 4orl' or t(at rains 4ill not return in t(e sprin. to 4ater our crops. T(e Searc( for Patterns T(e annual monsoon rains t(at farmers in /n'ia 'epen'e' on ne+er came in @>> an' @??, eac( time resultin. in 'e+astatin. famine. /n ?$# :il&ert *al9er 4as c(ar.e' 4it( fin'in. a 4ay to pre'ict t(e monsoon fluctuations t(at ma'e life in /n'ia suc( a lottery. /n (is %$Dyear Buest, (e collecte' an' analyEe' meteorolo.ical o&ser+ations from stations all o+er t(e .lo&e. 6e foun' t(at t(e air pressure at sea le+el in t(e Pacific seesa4e' up an' 'o4n across a re.ion ran.in. from Australia to Sout( America. 0ost nota&ly, 4(en it 4as (i.( in Dar4in, Australia, in t(e 4estern Pacific, an' lo4 in Ta(iti, in t(e central Pacific, t(ere 4as (ea+y rain in t(e central eBuatorial Pacific, 'rou.(t in /n'ia, a 4arm 4inter in sout(4estern )ana'a an' a col' one in t(e sout(eastern 2.S. E+ery fe4 years t(e air pressures in Dar4in an' Ta(iti re+erse', an' so 'i' climate con'itions in +arious re.ions in t(e 4orl'. *al9er calle' t(is atmosp(eric pattern t(e Sout(ern Oscillation, &ut critics 'eri'e' (is t(eory, 'ou&tin. t(at suc( farDflun. climate c(an.es coul' &e lin9e'. /t 'i'n7t (elp t(at *al9er (a' no scientific e=planation for (is pattern. Despite (is Eealous 'ata .at(erin., (e too9 no account of t(e ocean an' ma'e no connection 4it( El Nio, 4(ic( (a' &een 'ocumente' as early as t(e ,t( century. Ori.inally, t(e term -El Nio- referre' specifically to a 4armin. of coastal 4aters off Ecua'or an' Peru t(at arri+e' aroun' )(ristmas C t(e cele&ration of El Nio, t(e )(rist c(il'. /n most years t(e 4armin. 4as mil' an' &eni.n, &ut t(en as no4, occasionally se+ere 4armin.s le' to (ea+y rains, catastrop(ic floo'in. an' t(e 'isappearance of fis( from local 4aters. /t 4as not until t(e ?,$s t(at anyone realiEe' El Nio an' t(e Sout(ern Oscillation 4ere relate'. FTo'ay t(ey are collecti+ely referre' to as t(e El NioGSout(ern Oscillation, or ENSO.H 2sin. measurements of t(e atmosp(ere an' t(e tropical Pacific .at(ere' 'urin. ?!>D!@, 5aco& B8er9nes of t(e 2ni+ersity of )alifornia at Los An.eles 'isco+ere' t(at El Nio 4armin. of seaDsurface temperatures 4as not confine' to t(e 4estern coast of Sout( America &ut e=ten'e' t(ousan's of miles into t(e central Pacific. 0oreo+er, it 4as accompanie' &y all t(e atmosp(eric c(an.es o&ser+e' in *al9er7s Sout(ern Oscillation. /n nonDEl Nio years, B8er9nes notice', seaDsurface temperatures in t(e eastern, Sout( American en' of t(e Pacific are remar9a&ly col' for suc( a sunD'renc(e' eBuatorial re.ion an' contrast s(arply 4it( t(e .reat 4armt( in t(e 4estern Pacific. Nature mo+es to e+en out t(e temperature .ra'ient. /n t(e 4est, t(e ocean (eats t(e air a&o+e it. T(e (eate' air rises an' 'ra4s in &eneat( it cooler an' 'enser air t(at flo4s alon. t(e sea surface from t(e cooler eastern Pacific. T(ese are t(e tra'e 4in's. FT(e rea'ily e+aporatin. 4aters in t(e 4est also supply moisture to t(e air, yiel'in. rainfall.H B8er9nes calle' t(is eBuatorial circulation system C .enerate' &y t(e temperature an' airDpressure .ra'ients &et4een t(e eastern an' 4estern Pacific C t(e *al9er )irculation. At t(e same time, B8er9nes sai', t(e pre+ailin. tra'e 4in's 'ri+e tropical Pacific 4aters 4est4ar' as 4ell as nort(4ar' an' sout(4ar' to4ar' Eart(7s t4o poles. To replace t(ose 'epartin. 4aters, 'eeper Fan' col'erH 4aters up4ell in t(e eastern Pacific. T(ese col', nutrientDric( 4aters not only allo4 fis( to t(ri+e, t(ey also reinforce t(e eastD4est temperature .ra'ient, 9eepin. t(e 4in's &lo4in. 4est4ar' an' 4arm 4aters poole' in t(e 4est. But t(is airDsea interaction coul' flipDflop, as it 'oes in El Nio years. /f t(e tra'e 4in's 'iminis(e', 4arm 4aters coul' mi.rate east4ar', re'ucin. t(e eastD4est temperature .ra'ient, 4(ic( 4oul' re'uce t(e tra'e 4in's furt(er, an' so on in a c(ain reaction. T(us, B8er9nes marrie' t(e circulation of t(e ocean an' t(e atmosp(ere to.et(er in a continuous fee'&ac9 loop 4it( t4o alternati+e mo'es. E+ery fe4 years, for reasons B8er9nes 'i'n7t fi.ure out, t(e loop re+erses. *arm surface 4aters t(at usually pool in t(e 4estern Pacific e=pan' 'ramatically t(rou.(out t(e tropical Pacific until t(ey .ir' a Buarter of Eart(7s circumference. ;ain clou's t(at accompany t(e 4arm 4aters mi.rate east4ar', ta9in. rain from places 4(ere it is e=pecte' an' 'roppin. it une=pecte'ly in ot(er areas. Pre+ailin. tra'e 4in's 'iminis(, t(us rearran.in. .lo&al atmosp(eric circulation patterns an' 4orl'4i'e 4eat(er. On a+era.e, an El Nio occurs a&out e+ery four years, &ut t(e cycle is irre.ular. Sometimes t(ere are only t4o years &et4een e+ents, sometimes almost a 'eca'e. /n t(e early ??$s an El Nio seeme' to last t4o years. T(e intensity of t(e e+ents an' t(eir climatic effects +ary consi'era&ly. Sometimes, in an El Nio7s 4a9e, eastern Pacific 4aters not only return to a cool state &ut also &ecome unusually col' C a con'ition calle' La Nia, 4(ic( pac9s its o4n climatic repercussions. Only in t(e past 'eca'e (a+e researc(ers .otten a tentati+e (an'le on 4(y t(e system flips &ac9 an' fort(. T(e upper fe4 (un're' feet of t(e ocean stores ,$$$ times more of t(e sun7s (eat t(an t(e

atmosp(ere 'oes. 6u.e masses of (eatDstorin. 4ater mo+e t(rou.( t(e 'ept(s at t(eir o4n slu..is( pace, uninfluence' &y t(e muc( fasterDmo+in. interactions 'escri&e' &y B8er9nes t(at transfer (eat near t(e surface. T(e t4o (eatDtransferrin. processes are perpetually out of sync C continuously see9in. &ut ne+er ac(ie+in. eBuili&rium. /n t(e atmosp(ere, e+en a small c(an.e in 4in' 'irection, air pressure or temperature coul' launc( an unpre'icta&le seBuence of e+ents t(at 4oul' 'oom relia&le 4eat(er forecasts &eyon' t4o 4ee9s. But t(e oceans transfer (eat aroun' t(e .lo&e in less ep(emeral pulses, settin. t(e sta.e to ma9e one 9in' of climate con'ition more or less li9ely t(an anot(er. By a&out $ years a.o t(e searc( 4as on for ot(er oscillations C per(aps 'ri+en &y many of t(e same airDsea 'ynamics t(at (a' &een unco+ere' &y stu'yin. ENSO. Scientists (a+e only &e.un to e=plore t(e mec(anisms 'ri+in. t(ese ne4ly reco.niEe' oscillations. -T(e science ri.(t no4 is more li9e our un'erstan'in. of El Nio ! to "$ years a.o,- 0antua says. T(e Nort( Atlantic Oscillation Early in t(e ??$s in+esti.ators re+isite' 4it( a +en.eance anot(er climate pattern first i'entifie' 'eca'es a.o &y *al9er: t(e Nort( Atlantic Oscillation FNAOH. Li9e ENSO, t(e NAO flipDflops &et4een t4o mo'es, &ut unli9e ENSO, its 'efinin. si.nals are primarily atmosp(eric. /n t(e -positi+e- mo'e, a (u.e lo4Dpressure system sits o+er /celan', circulatin. 4in's countercloc94ise aroun' it. A (i.(Dpressure system 4it( cloc94iseDcirculatin. 4in's lo'.es near t(e AEores off Portu.al. Li9e interconnectin. .ears, t(e t4o systems steer stron. 4in's t(rou.( t(e lane 4(ere t(ey intersect C east4ar' across t(e Nort( Atlantic to4ar' Europe. /n 4inter, 4(en nort(ern air temperatures .o 'o4n, t(e airDpressure contrast &et4een t(e t4o systems increases, creatin. stron.er 4in's. T(e 4in's &rin. polar air 'o4n t(rou.( t(e eastern 2.S. an' )ana'a, ma9in. 4inters col'er on a+era.e t(ere, &ut t(en t(ey pic9 up (eat an' moisture from ocean 4aters 4arme' &y t(e :ulf Stream, ma9in. European 4inters 4etter an' mil'er. *(en t(e NAO flips into its -ne.ati+e- mo'e, t(e lo4Dpressure system mo+es 'o4n o+er t(e AEores. T(e 4arm, moistureDla'en 4in's are 'i+erte' sout(4ar', ma9in. nort(ern European 4inters cooler &ut &rin.in. 4armt( an' rain across t(e 0e'iterranean re.ion all t(e 4ay to t(e 0i''le East. *inters are .enerally 4armer in t(e eastern 2.S. an' )ana'a &ut col'er in t(e sout(eastern 2.S. T(e NAO can s4itc( mo'es o+er 'ays, 4ee9s or mont(s, &ut +ie4e' o+er years or 'eca'es, it essentially stays one 4ay or t(e ot(er. *it( t(e e=ception of ??!, t(e NAO (as &een in t(e positi+e position since ?@$. T(e effects (a+e &een per+asi+e. Stron. 4inter 4in's (a+e 4(ippe' Nort( Sea oil ri.s 4it( (i.(er 4a+es, for e=ample. But t(ey (a+e &rou.(t more rain, increasin. Scan'ina+ia7s (y'roelectric output. *armer temperatures (a+e len.t(ene' .ro4in. seasons &ut (urt t(e s9i in'ustry in Scan'ina+ia an' ot(er parts of nort(ern Eurasia. 1art(er sout(, lac9 of rain (as 'isrupte' .rape an' oli+e (ar+ests on t(e /&erian Peninsula an' 'iminis(e' stream flo4 in t(e Ti.ris an' Eup(rates ri+ers, 4(ic( &rin. co+ete' 4ater to t(e 0i''le East. Less rainfall in t(e Sa(el re.ion of Africa (as &rou.(t famine to Et(iopia, Su'an an' Somalia, causin. star+ation, e=pensi+e 'isaster relief, 4ars an' mass mi.rations of populations Fnot unli9e t(e /sraelites7 mi.ration, in searc( of foo', to E.ypt follo4in. 5osep(7s pre'iction an' t(eir su&seBuent e=o'usH. /nterestin.ly, 6ei'i )ullen an' Peter 'e0enocal of )olum&ia 2ni+ersity7s LamontDDo(erty Eart( O&ser+atory (a+e su..este' t(at t(e NAO, loc9e' in t(e positi+e mo'e a&out #,"$$ years a.o, may (a+e &een at t(e root of t(e (istoryDc(an.in. 'rou.(t t(at arc(aeolo.ists &elie+e cause' t(e collapse of t(e .reat A99a'ian ci+iliEation of 0esopotamia. ;esearc(ers (a+en7t fi.ure' out 4(at causes t(e NAO to s4itc( mo'es, &ut 0ic(ael S. 0c)artney, an oceano.rap(er at *oo's 6ole Oceano.rap(ic /nstitution, &elie+es t(e ocean plays a critical role. 0easurin. ocean temperatures in t(e Nort( Atlantic, (e an' (is collea.ues foun' lar.e, persistent masses, or -poc9ets,- of unusually 4arm or col' 4aters t(at flo4 in a rin. of currents up t(e 4estern coast of /relan' an' Scotlan', 4est to /celan' an' :reenlan', on to t(e La&ra'or Sea an' east4ar' a.ain 4it( t(e :ulf Stream to /relan'. As t(ese poc9ets are transporte' alon. t(is oceanic pat(4ay o+er 'eca'es, t(ey release more or less (eat to t(e o+erlyin. atmosp(ere. 0c)artney foun' a .oo' correlation &et4een t(e fluctuations of t(e NAO an' t(e (eat mo+in. t(rou.( t(e ocean. Arctic an' Antarctic Oscillation T(e NAO, (o4e+er, may &e encompasse' &y a more fun'amental p(enomenon C t(e Arctic Oscillation C t(at affects climate o+er t(e entire Nort(ern 6emisp(ere, as 5o(n 0. *allace an' Da+i' T(ompson of t(e 2ni+ersity of *as(in.ton pointe' out in ??@. /n .eneral, 4in's a mile or more a&o+e Eart(7s surface spin countercloc94ise aroun' t(e polar cap. /n 4inter, fri.i' air temperatures .reatly stren.t(en t(e 4in's in t(e stratosp(ere $ to "$ miles (i.(, creatin. a po4erful polar +orte= t(at e=ten's all t(e 4ay 'o4n to

Eart(7s surface o+er t(e Nort( Atlantic re.ion. *(en t(e +orte= stren.t(ens, it increases t(e flo4 of 4in's t(at &rin. 4arm, 4et Atlantic Ocean air east4ar' to4ar' Europe an' Si&eria, ma9in. 4inters 4armer an' 4etter on a+era.e in t(ose re.ions, say *allace an' T(ompson. T(ose are precisely t(e con'itions ascri&e' to t(e 4arm p(ase of t(e NAO. Perio'ically, t(ou.(, t(e stratosp(ere a&o+e t(e pole 4arms, sometimes &y !$ to ,$ 'e.rees in a 4ee9. *(en t(at (appens, t(e .reat s4irlin. 4all of stratosp(eric 4in's surroun'in. t(e pole partially or completely &rea9s 'o4n. Polar air lea9s out an' penetrates sout(4ar' into parts of Nort( America, Europe an' Asia, ma9in. 4inters c(illier in t(e affecte' areas. 0ean4(ile, east4ar'D&lo4in. 4in's closer to t(e surface often 4ea9en or s(ift sout(4ar', &rin.in. rain to t(e 0e'iterranean re.ion. -T(e NAO an' AO are 'ifferent names for t(e same p(enomenon,- *allace asserts. -T(e NAO represents a 7&ottomDup7 perspecti+e t(at presumes t(at t(e ocean is t(e 9ey player, 4(ereas t(e AO is a more 7topD'o4n7 perspecti+e,- 4(ic( assumes t(e p(enomenon is 'ri+en &y atmosp(eric c(an.es t(at occur in'epen'ently of t(e ocean. /nterestin.ly, t(e AO (as an i'entical t4in operatin. aroun' t(e Sout( Pole calle' t(e Antarctic Oscillation, alt(ou.( fe4er people li+e 4it(in ran.e of its climatic effects. T(e AO an' t(e Antarctic Oscillation s(ift o+er 4ee9s, mont(s an' years, &ut o+erall t(ey seem to (a+e &ecome -stuc9- o+er t(e past 'eca'e or t4o in t(e mo'e t(at fa+ors stron. polar +ortices. But scientists (a+e only 8ust &e.un e=plorin. in 'etail t(e lon.Dterm patterns, un'erlyin. causes an' farDflun. climatic impacts of t(ese polar oscillations. /n+esti.ators are also loo9in. into e+i'ence t(at t(e AO may &e .ettin. stuc9 &ecause of t(e &uil'up of in'ustrial .reen(ouse .ases. 6i.( in t(e stratosp(ere, t(e .ases are not trappin. (eat in &ut are ra'iatin. it out to space. T(e col'er stratosp(eric temperatures may also &e 'oin. ot(er 'ama.e: stimulatin. c(emical reactions t(at 'estroy t(e oEone layer, 4(ic( s(iel's Eart( from 'an.erous ultra+iolet solar rays. T(e Pacific Deca'al Oscillation /n t(e mi'D ??$s *allace an' (is 2ni+ersity of *as(in.ton collea.ue Yuan I(an. &e.an to notice a climate pattern o+er t(e Pacific. T(is pattern seeme' to s(ift in "$D to %$Dyear cycles. At t(e same time, Ste+en ;. 6are an' ;o&ert L. 1rancis, also at t(e 2ni+ersity of *as(in.ton, 'iscerne' similarly time' &oomDan'D&ust cycles in Alas9a salmon. /n ??> t(ese teams realiEe' t(at t(ey 4ere loo9in. at t(e same p(enomenon an' la&ele' it t(e Pacific Deca'al Oscillation FPDOH. /n t(e PDO7s -4arm- mo'e, t(e +ast central interior of t(e Nort( Pacific is col'er t(an usual, 4(ile a narro4 &an' of 4armer t(an a+era.e seaDsurface temperatures (u.s t(e coastlines of Alas9a an' t(e 4estern 2.S. an' )ana'a. /n t(e PDO7s -col'- mo'e, ocean temperatures are 4armer in t(e interior an' col'er alon. t(e coast. *(en t(e PDO is 4arm, a lo4Dpressure system forms 4it( a &ull7sDeye o+er t(e Aleutian /slan's, near Alas9a. /t circulates stron. 4in's t(at &rin. 4arm, 'ry air an' 4armer 4inters to t(e Pacific Nort(4est. But 4ater supplies suffer from 'iminis(e' precipitation an' sno4pac9 in t(e mountains. *it( fe4 interruptions, t(e PDO (as &een in t(is mo'e since ?>>, as it 4as &et4een ?"! an' ?#,. But from ?#> to ?>,, 4ater supplies 4ere "$ percent (i.(er on a+era.e in t(e Nort(4est. T(e PDO 4as in its col' mo'e, as it (a' &een &et4een @?$ an' ?"#. Durin. t(at time, t(e Aleutian lo4 'issipate', less 4arm air flo4e' to t(e Nort(4est, an' 4inters 4ere col'er. But salmon fis(in. 4as terrific from )alifornia to Jancou+er. -One of t(e most fascinatin. an' important aspects of t(ese oscillations is (o4 t(ey prompt (u.e reor.aniEations of marine ecosystems,- says t(e 2ni+ersity of *as(in.ton7s 0antua. 0antua, 6are an' 1rancis foun' t(at PDO 4armin. of coastal 4aters creates 'etrimental con'itions for *est )oast salmon Fe=cept in Alas9a, 4(ere t(ey t(ri+eH. T(e 4armer, &uoyant 4aters lay atop t(e ocean surface, creatin. a &oun'ary &et4een 'eeper, col'er, nutrientDric( 4aters. T(e upper layer is no lon.er replenis(e' &y up4ellin. nutrientDric( 4aters. P(ytoplan9ton an' Eooplan9ton populations cras(. 5u+enile salmon mi.ratin. from streams into t(e coastal ocean eit(er star+e or &ecome easy prey for (un.ry pre'ators. 2p in Alas9a, t(e same c(an.es &enefit p(ytoplan9ton. T(e nort(ern 4aters, t(ou.( 4armer, are still col' enou.( to &e nutrientDric(. T(e more stratifie' 4aters 9eep p(ytoplan9ton near t(e surface an' near t(e lifeD.i+in. sunli.(t t(at is limite' in Alas9an 4inters. Alas9an salmon (a+e a &anBuet. Similar PDODrelate' &oomDan'D&ust cycles also affect important fis(eries across t(e Pacific in 5apan, Korea an' ;ussia. On t(e loo9out for possi&le oscillations in ot(er oceans, scientists are also e=plorin. t(e tropical Atlantic Ocean an' t(e /n'ian Ocean, 4(ere a still fuEEy pattern tentati+ely 'u&&e' t(e /n'ian Ocean Dipole may s(ift 4arm pools of 4ater in a smaller +ersion of ENSO. Do4n un'er, 4or9ers are e=cite' a&out a ne4ly

'isco+ere' oscillation in t(e Sout(ern Ocean, 4(ic( surroun's Antarctica. )alle' t(e Antarctic )ircumpolar *a+e FA)*H, t(is pattern 4as un+eile' in ??, &y *arren B. *(ite an' ;ay :. Peterson of t(e Scripps /nstitution of Oceano.rap(y. T(e Antarctic )ircumpolar *a+e AnalyEin. measurements of seaDsurface temperatures an' seaDle+el pressure in t(e Sout(ern Ocean, t(e t4o researc(ers foun' somet(in. rat(er curious: you can 'ra4 a 4a+y line, 4it( t4o pea9s an' t4o trou.(s, completely aroun' Antarctica &et4een latitu'es #$ an' >$ 'e.rees sout(< ocean temperatures are 4armer a&o+e t(e line an' col'er &elo4 it. *arm tropical 4aters flo4 sout(4ar' into t(e trou.(s, an' polar 4aters flo4 nort(4ar' in t(e pea9s. T(is pattern results in four alternatin. re.ions Ft4o eac(H of relati+ely 4arm or cool ocean 4aters t(at span t(ousan's of miles. T(ese re.ions are em&e''e' in t(e Antarctic )ircumpolar )urrent, 4(ic( mo+es cloc94ise aroun' Antarctica, completin. one circumna+i.ation e+ery ei.(t to nine years. E+ery four years or so F4it( a freBuency similar to ENSO7s, o''ly enou.(H, a pea9 or trou.( passes o+er a .i+en re.ion in t(e Sout(ern Ocean, s(iftin. 4in's an' rainfall accor'in.ly as it pro.resses C in muc( t(e same 4ay t(at ENSO7s s(iftin. 4arm an' col' pools 'o. *(en a 4arm trou.( nears Australia, 4in's comin. off t(e ocean &rin. 4arm, moist air an' 4armer an' 4etter t(an a+era.e 4inters, says Peter Baines of t(e )ommon4ealt( Scientific an' /n'ustrial ;esearc( Or.aniEation F)S/;OH in Australia. )ol' pea9s passin. alon. t(is tra+elin. 4a+e ma9e Australian 4inters cooler an' 'rier. -Soon e+eryone in Australia 4ill 9no4 a&out t(e A)*,- *(ite pre'icts. -/t 4ill &e common 9no4le'.e on t(e street, 8ust as ENSO is no4.- T(e A)* may also pro+e (elpful for forecasts in Ne4 Iealan', Sout( Africa an' sout(ern Sout( America. An' &ecause it encircles t(e .lo&e unimpe'e' &y continents, it coul' &e actin. as a lin9 to transmit climate patterns aroun' t(e 4orl', *(ite an' Peterson say. T(e ramifications an' importance of t(e A)* remain unteste', (o4e+er. 0ore e+i'ence t(at Eart(7s climate ten's to oscillate &et4een t4o 'ifferent states arri+e' last No+em&er. LamontDDo(erty .eoc(emist *allace S. Broec9er an' (is collea.ues re+eale' telltale clues t(at t(e circulation of t(e entire 4orl' ocean oscillates in a re.ular pattern t(at pro'uces centuriesDlon. col' spells e+ery ,!$$ years. T(e most recent one 4as t(e -Little /ce A.e- C a 4ellD'ocumente' perio' &et4een %!$ an' @@$ of .enerally col'er European 4inters t(at e=pan'e' alpine .laciers, froEe ri+ers an' (ar&ors, an' 'isrupte' farmin.. To'ay 4arm :ulf Stream 4aters flo4 into t(e Nort( Atlantic, 4(ere t(ey release t(eir (eat an' 9eep Europe noticea&ly 4armer in 4inter t(an compara&le latitu'es in Nort( America. T(e 4arm 4aters are -pulle'- from tropical latitu'es into t(e nort( to replace col', salty, 'ense 4aters t(at sin9 to t(e ocean &ottom. Li9e a (an' pus(in. 'o4n4ar' in a &at(tu&, t(e sin9in. col' 4ater propels a con+eyor &elt of 'eepDocean currents t(rou.(out t(e 4orl'7s oceans an' e+entually &ac9 to t(e Atlantic. *(en t(is -:reat Ocean )on+eyor- is pumpin. stron.ly, it 'ra4s more tropical 4aters nort(4ar' an' 4arms Europe. )on+ersely, 4(en a smaller amount of col' Nort( Atlantic 4aters sin9s, less tropical 4ater is pulle' nort(4ar', an' Europe recei+es less (eat. T(e con+eyor recei+es a &oost near Antarctica, t(e only ot(er place on Eart( 4(ere t(e ocean is col' an' salty enou.( to sin9. 2ntil no4, col' 4aters 4ere assume' to sin9 at t(e same rates in &ot( t(e Nort( Atlantic an' Antarctica. But Broec9er7s ne4 stu'y su..ests t(at 4(en one site re+s up, t(e ot(er one slo4s 'o4n C in a ,!$$Dyear oscillation t(at .enerates 4orl'4i'e climatic conseBuences. -*irin.- t(e Ocean O+er t(e ne=t 'eca'e, scientists s(oul' &e Buite &usy fi.urin. out t(e +ali'ity an' si.nificance of all t(ese ne4ly reco.niEe' oscillations. -One of our &i. c(allen.es is 'eterminin. t(e e=tent to 4(ic( all t(ese p(enomena are lin9e', an' (o4,- says Stan *. *ilson, 'eputy c(ief scientist of t(e National Oceanic an' Atmosp(eric A'ministration. But 4(et(er t(e ocean 'ri+es or is 'ri+en &y t(e atmosp(ere, it plays a critical role in creatin. our climate. )onseBuently, in t(e aftermat( of t(e 'isastrous ?@"D@% El Nio, NOAA, t(e National Science 1oun'ation an' scientific a.encies of ot(er nations 'eploye' a strin. of moore' &uoys to monitor oceanic con'itions spannin. $,$$$ miles of t(e eBuatorial Pacific. Satellites operate' &y NOAA an' t(e National Aeronautics an' Space A'ministration also trac9 s(iftin. 4in's an' sea le+els. To.et(er t(ese instruments pro+i'e a continuous stream of o&ser+ations t(at fee' climate forecastin. mo'els an' (a+e allo4e' forecasters, for instance, to .i+e plenty of 4arnin. of t(e po4erful ??>D?@ El Nio, as 4ell as t(e La Nia t(at follo4e' it. -T(e time is ripe to ta9e t(e ne=t o&+ious step,- *ilson notes. *it( international partners, NOAA plans to cast %,$$$ &uoys t(rou.(out t(e oceans, 'roppe' o+er&oar' from s(ips or parac(ute' &y airplanes in remote re.ions. Eac( fourDfootDlon. torpe'oDs(ape' &uoy 4ill sin9 a&out a mile 'eep, 'rift 4it( ocean

currents for $ 'ays an' t(en rise, measurin. 4ater temperature an' salinity alon. t(e 4ay. On t(e surface, eac( soDcalle' Ar.o float 4ill ra'io its 'ata an' position to or&itin. satellites &efore sin9in. a.ain an' continuin. anot(er cycle. T(e satellites 4ill relay &uoy 'ata to (elp ma9e -4eat(er maps- of t(e ocean, alon. 4it( ot(er satellites t(at 4ill continuously measure sea le+els an' 4in' spee's an' 'irections. T(e &uoys are &uilt to last fi+e years, says *. Brec(ner O4ens of *oo's 6ole, 4(o (elpe' to 'esi.n t(em. -Because t(e ocean is so incompressi&le, t(e &uoys 4on7t clump,- (e a''s. -Once fully 'eploye', Ar.o 4ill .i+e us for t(e oceans 4(at meteorolo.ists (a+e (a' for t(e atmosp(ere C a 4orl'4i'e o&ser+in. net4or9,- *ilson e=claims. -/f 4e can o&ser+e an' un'erstan' t(e oceans, 4e (a+e t(e potential to forecast si= to " mont(s in a'+ance.- 1orecasters 4ill not &e a&le to say t(at it 4ill sno4 on )(ristmas in Ne4 Yor9, &ut t(ey may &e a&le to pre'ict t(at t(e Nort(east 4ill pro&a&ly (a+e more sno4 t(an usual ne=t 4inter an' .i+e people a c(ance to prepare for it. T(e ol' sayin. C t(at e+eryone complains a&out t(e 4eat(er &ut no&o'y 'oes anyt(in. a&out it C may not &e Buite so true anymore. D/A:;A0: T6E EL N/LOGSO2T6E;N OS)/LLAT/ON: Oceanic an' atmosp(eric con'itions in t(e eBuatorial Pacific .enerally flipDflop &et4een t4o states: a normal con'ition FleftH an' an El Nio con'ition FcenterH, 4(ic( &rin.s e=tra rain to parts of Sout( D/A:;A0: EL N/LO )OND/T/ON: LA N/LA )OND/T/ON: America an' 'ry con'itions to /n'onesia an' Australia. Sometimes, instea' of returnin. to normal after an El Nio, t(e eastern Pacific cools e=cessi+ely, si.nalin. t(e onset of La Nia Fri.(t H, 4(ic( is accompanie' &y e=cessi+e rain in t(e 4est an' a&normally 'ry con'itions in t(e east. T(e s(iftin. con'itions in t(e Pacific also affect 4eat(er else4(ere in t(e 4orl'. D/A:;A0: T6E A;)T/) OS)/LLAT/ON: ST;ON: JO;TE3 )OND/T/ON: T(e Arctic Oscillation is a s(ift &et4een t4o patterns of 4in' flo4. /n one state FleftH, a stron. stratosp(eric +orte= s4irls o+er t(e Nort( Pole, increasin. t(e flo4 of surface 4in's across t(e Atlantic. T(e 4in's 4arm as t(ey cross t(e ocean to Scan'ina+ia an' Si&eria, 4(ic( &ecome 4armer an' 4etter. D/A:;A0: T6E A;)T/) OS)/LLAT/ON: *EAK JO;TE3 )OND/T/ON: *(en t(e +orte= 4ea9ens Fri.(tH, col' air seeps out across t(e nort(ern lan's. 0ean4(ile t(e 4in's ori.inatin. o+er Nort( America ta9e a more sout(ern trac9 o+er t(e ocean, &rin.in. some 4armt( an' 4etness to t(e 0e'iterranean. D/A:;A0: T6E ANTA;)T/) )/;)20POLA; *AJE: )OLD PA)/1/) P6ASE: T(e Antarctic )ircumpolar *a+e, s(o4n (i.(ly sc(ematically, is compose' of alternatin. masses of col' polar 4aters Ft(at (a+e sprea' nort(4ar'H an' 4arm su&tropical 4aters Ft(at (a+e sprea' sout(4ar'H propa.atin. slo4ly aroun' Antarctica. *(en t(e 4a+e, 4(ic( ta9es a&out ei.(t years to .o full circle, is in its col' Pacific p(ase FleftH, Sout( Africa (as col'er an' 'rier 4eat(er, 4(ereas Sout( America an' Australia &ecome 4armer an' 4etter. D/A:;A0: T6E ANTA;)T/) )/;)20POLA; *AJE: *A;0 PA)/1/) P6ASE: *(en t(e 4a+e is in its 4arm Pacific p(ase Fri.(tH, 4eat(er con'itions re+erse. D/A:;A0: T6E A;:O 1LOAT SYSTE0: 6opin. to impro+e 4eat(er pre'iction, an international colla&oration is launc(in. Ar.o, an array of %,$$$ floats. T(e 'e+ices 4ill measure t(e temperature an' salinity of t(e ocean, t4o features t(at influence atmosp(eric con'itions, an' 4ill relay t(e results e+ery $ 'ays to a satellite for analysis Fcycle a&o+e, startin. at left of centerH. T(e floats Fs(o4n in cuta4ay +ie4 a&o+eH can &e launc(e' o+er t(e rail of a s(ip Finset p(oto.rap( on opposite pa.eH an', in remote areas, mi.(t &e 'eploye' from aircraft. P6OTO F)OLO;H: */ND EJE;Y*6E;E: Arro4s in'icate 4in' 'irection at t(e surface of t(e Pacific Ocean as 'etecte' &y a satellite on a sin.le 'ay< colors 'enote spee', 4(ic( rises as t(e un'erlyin. colors s(ift from &lue to pin9, oran.e an' yello4. S4irls reflect storms. Scientists are learnin. t(at t(e atmosp(ere an' t(e oceans continuously interact to .enerate recurrin. patterns t(at influence 4eat(er an' climate aroun' t(e .lo&e. MMMMMMMM By Laurence Lippsett LA2;EN)E L/PPSETT is science e'itor at t(e *oo's 6ole Oceano.rap(ic /nstitution.

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