04 Counting Statisitcs

COUNTING STATISTICS AND ERROR COUNTING STATISTICS AND ERROR
PREDICTION
Dr. Walid Metwally
Nuclear Instrumentation and Measurement - Spring 2013/2014
Objectives j
Understand the fluctuations in the collected data
K h t h t i th d t Know how to characterize the data
Learn how to apply mathematical models to the
ll t d d t collected data
Quantify the amount of error in the calculated
l values
2
Counting Statistics and Error Prediction - Nuclear Instrumentation and Measurement
Revision
Radioactive Decay:
t
e A t A

=
0
) (
Where:
0
) (
A(t) is the activity at time t
A
0
is the activity at time 0
is the decay constant is the decay constant
3
Example p
99m
Tc results from the beta decay of the molybdenum isotope
99
Mo
99
T h h lf lif f 6 02 h i ki i i i i (IT) h d
99m
Tc has a half life of 6.02 h in making an isomeric transition (IT) to the ground state
0
0
99
43
99
43
+ Tc Tc
m
The gamma ray energy is 0.14 MeV.
Decay constant of
99m
Tc is:
693 0
1 - 5 1 - 3 1 -
s 19767 . 3 m 9186 . 1 h 115116 . 0
02 . 6
693 . 0

= = = = e e
Assume we have a 2 mCi
99m
Tc source at time =0
t t
e e A t A
115116 . 0
0
2 ) (

= =

4
Where t is in hours.
0
) (
Activity vs. Time y
Tc-99m Decay (2 mCi Source)
2
2.5
1.5
y

(
m
C
i
)
0 5
1
A
c
t
i
v
i
t
y
0
0.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Time (h)
Activity vs. Time
t t A t A 115116 0 2 ln ln ) ( ln
t
t
e e A t A
115116 . 0
0
2 ) (

= =

Tc-99m Decay (2 mCi Source)
t t A t A 115116 . 0 2 ln ln ) ( ln
0
= =
0
1
2
0 20 40 60 80
)
B taking the nat ral
-3
-2
-1
0 20 40 60 80
A
c
t
i
v
i
t
y
)

(
m
C
i
By taking the natural
logarithm we transformed the
exponential equation into a
linear equation
7
-6
-5
-4
l
n
(
A
linear equation.
Why????
6
-7
Time (h)
Data from Unknown Source
Unknown Source
Wh t if h
6000
7000
8000
What if we have
the data and dont
know the source.
What do we do??
4000
5000
6000
o
u
n
t
s
/
s
Note:
The experimental data
will not always fall
1000
2000
3000
C
o
will not always fall
perfectly on the
exponential curve.
There will be some
0
1000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Ti me (h)
7
fluctuations
Ti me (h)
Series1 Expon. (Series1)
Data from Unknown Source
Unknown Source
9
10
6
7
8
n
t
s
(
t
)
)
3
4
5
l
n
(
C
o
u
n
Se we must fit the
experimental data to
t i ht li t fi d
0
1
2
a straight line to find
A
0
and .
8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Ti me (h)
Series1 Linear (Series1)
Before Fittingg
We must first know how each of the individual data
point were obtained and how to predict the precision point were obtained and how to predict the precision
of each of these data points.
9
Counting Statistics g
The term counting statistics includes the framework
of statistical analysis required to process the results of of statistical analysis required to process the results of
counting experiments and to make predictions about
the expected precision of quantities derived from the expected precision of quantities derived from
these measurements.
10
Data Analysis y
Collect Analyze
Fit to Predict
Collect Analyze
model Error
Develop
mathematical
models
11
Characterization of Data
Assume we have a collection of N independent Assume we have a collection of N independent
measurements of the same physical quantity
x
1
, x
2
, x
3
, x
4
, , x
i
, , x
N 1
,
2
,
3
,
4
, ,
i
, ,
N
i
=
= =
N
1
i
e
x
x Mean al Experiment
Frequency Distribution Function F(x)
N
e
p
(N) ts measuremen of
x value the of s occurrence of
) (
number
number
x F =
12
( )
1 ) (
0
=
= x
x F
Characterization of Data- Example
How good is this data?
N
8 . 8
x
x
N
1
i
e
= =

= i
N
8 8 ) (
F
or
N
8 . 8 ) ( x
0
e
= =
= x
x xF
13
Still, how good is this data?
Characterization of Data- Example p
Is this good data?
14
We must quantify the internal fluctuation in the data
(Standard Deviation) (Standard Deviation)
Which data set is better?
15
Residual Residual
|
.
|
\
|
= =

=
N
1 i
i
0 d
e i i
x x d
Deviation
. \
S l V i
x x
i i
= c
Sample Variance
( ) ( ) ( ) ) (
1
1 1
2 2 2
2 2
x F x x x x
N
x x
N
S
N
e i
N
i

= = = = c
16
( ) ( ) ( )
1
0 1 1
N N
x i
e i
i
i
= = =

Characterization of Data- Example p
17
Characterization of Data- Notes
The experimental mean is the value about which the
distribution is centered distribution is centered.
The sample variance is a measure of the width of
the distribution or the amount of internal fluctuation the distribution, or the amount of internal fluctuation
in the data.
18
Statistical Models
Under certain conditions, we can predict the distribution
f nction that will describe the res lts of man function that will describe the results of many
repetitions of a given measurement. Examples:
The Binomial Distribution The Binomial Distribution
The Poisson Distribution
The Gaussian Distribution
All of these distributions apply to binary processes (two
results are possible)
19
Statistical Models
Binomial
Small p
Poisson
Small p and
large number of
successes
Gaussian
n: Number of trials for which each trial has a success probability p n: Number of trials for which each trial has a success probability p
P(x): The predicted probability distribution function. The predicted probability of
counting exactly x successes.
20
Is it realistic to apply the binomial distribution in radioactive decay?
Binomial Example p
An honest die
Define a successful roll as Define a successful roll as
one in which any of the
numbers 3, 4, 5, or 6
appear appear.
The individual probability
of success p is equal to
4/6 0 667 4/6 or 0.667.
Roll a die a total of 10
times
Record the number of
rolls that result in success
21
Properties of Binomial Distribution
Normalized
1 ) (
0
=
=
n
x
x P
Mean
n
P ) (
Standard deviation
=
= =
x
pn x xP x
0
) (
) 1 ( ) 1 ( p x p np = = o
22
Properties of Poisson and Gaussian
Distributions
Normalized
Distributions
1 ) (
0
=
=
n
x
x P
Mean
n
P ) (
Standard deviation
=
= =
x
pn x xP x
0
) (
x = o
23
The Poisson Distribution works well with counting experiments
Applications of Statistical Models pp
Application A: Checkout of the Counting System to See
Whether Observed Fluctuations Are Consistent with Whether Observed Fluctuations Are Consistent with
Expected Statistical Fluctuation
Used to routinely check counting systems and needs multiple
measurements
Application B: Estimation of the Precision of a Single
Measurement Measurement
You only take one measure and you would like to estimate
the error in the measurement
This is the typical application in counting systems
24
Applications of Statistical Models
Checking the System g y
An illustration of
Application A of
counting statistics
h f the inspection of a
set of data for
consistency with a
statistical model.
25
Applications of Statistical Models Single
Measurement
An illustration of
Application B of
counting statistics
d f h prediction of the
precision to be
associated with a
single measurement g
26
Caution
The previous standard deviation equations apply
only to directly measured number of counts For only to directly measured number of counts. For
example, they do not apply to:
Counting rates Counting rates
Sums or differences of counts
Averages of independent counts Averages of independent counts
Any derived quantity
These are calculated values and their error has to
be calculated accordingly.
27
g y
27
Error Propagation p g
If x, y, z, are directly measured counts or related variables for
which we know
x
,
y
,
z
,. Then the standard deviation for any
x
,
y
,
z
, y
quantity u from these counts can be calculated from:
2
2
2
| |
| |
| |
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
.......
z y x u
z
u
y
u
x
u
o o o o +
|
.
|
\
|
c
c
+
|
|
.
|
\
|
c
c
+
|
.
|
\
|
c
c
=
2
u u
o o =
Error Propagation
formula
Where u=u(x,y,z,) represents the derived quantity.
28
Error Propagation - Example p g p
If u=x+y or u=x-y (Ex.: net counts=total counts=background
counts) counts)
2 2
y x u
o o o + =
If u=x/A (A is constant) (Ex.: Counting rate=r=x/t)
A
x
u
o
o =
If u=ln(x)
29
??? =
u
o
End of Statistics
Q ?
End of Statistics
Questions?

04 Counting Statisitcs

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