Population DA - Malthus

Population Disadvantage Fast Track 07
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Population Disadvantage
Population Disadvantage...................................................................................................................................................................... 1 1NC Shell 1/2 ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 1NC Shell 2/2 ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 3 Optional: Morality/Impact Calculation ............................................................................................................................................ 3 Uniqueness ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Links .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Links Death Checks ...................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Links Public Health Assistance ..................................................................................................................................................... 7 Links African Aid ......................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Links African Aid ......................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Links Sub Saharan Africa key..................................................................................................................................................... 10 Links Solving Diseases ............................................................................................................................................................... 11 Links Solving AIDS - Generic .................................................................................................................................................... 12 Links Solving AIDS Generic ................................................................................................................................................... 13 Links Solving AIDS - Generic .................................................................................................................................................... 14 Links Solving AIDS Generic ................................................................................................................................................... 15 Links Solving AIDS Generic ................................................................................................................................................... 16 Links Solving AIDS Plan Specific ........................................................................................................................................... 17 Links Solving AIDS Negative Population Growth .................................................................................................................. 18 Links Solving AIDS Lowers Fertility ...................................................................................................................................... 19 Links Solving AIDS AT: High Fertility Causes Population Growth ....................................................................................... 20 Links Solving AIDS Lowers Life Expectancies ...................................................................................................................... 21 Links Solving AIDS Infant Mortality ...................................................................................................................................... 22 Links Solving AIDS Under-5 Mortality................................................................................................................................... 23 Links Solving AIDS Crude Death Rates/Mortality .................................................................................................................. 24 Links Solving AIDS Kenya Specific ....................................................................................................................................... 25 Links Solving Hunger/Malnutrition ............................................................................................................................................ 26 Links Solving Hunger/Malnutrition ............................................................................................................................................ 27 Links Solving Hunger/Malnutrition ............................................................................................................................................ 28 Links Solving Famine ................................................................................................................................................................. 29 Links Solving Famine AT: Famines increase fertility ............................................................................................................. 30 Links Solving Conflict ................................................................................................................................................................ 31 Linearity ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 32 Linearity ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 33 Morality ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 34 Morality Ecological Sustainability .............................................................................................................................................. 35 Morality Allowing Overshoot ..................................................................................................................................................... 36 Morality Future Generations ....................................................................................................................................................... 37 Impacts ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 38 Impacts Die-off/Extinction.......................................................................................................................................................... 39 Impacts Laundry List .................................................................................................................................................................. 40 Impacts Conflicts/War ................................................................................................................................................................ 41 Impacts Racism ........................................................................................................................................................................... 42 Impacts Environmental Collapse ................................................................................................................................................ 43 Impacts Resource Shortages ....................................................................................................................................................... 44 Impacts Species Extinction ......................................................................................................................................................... 45 Impacts Climate Change ............................................................................................................................................................. 46 Impacts Climate Change ............................................................................................................................................................. 47 Impacts Genocide........................................................................................................................................................................ 48 Affirmative Answers .......................................................................................................................................................................... 49 No Link: AIDS has no effect on population growth ...................................................................................................................... 50 Generic Answers ............................................................................................................................................................................ 51 Generic Answers - Morality ........................................................................................................................................................... 52 Generic Answers Population Stabilizing..................................................................................................................................... 53
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1NC Shell 1/2

A. Humans are currently outstripping their available resources resulting in inevitable collapse of civilization
Hecker, University of Kentucky, 2003 (Thomas E., The Twilight of Digitization is Now, Journal of Scholalry Publishing, October) People are accustomed to continuing growth and expansion of the human enterprise, seeming to believe in a perpetual growth utopia.(f.#15) Resources are being used at an accelerating rate as human numbers and appetites swell. For now, trends such as human population, industrial enterprise, and the use of land for urban development and the cutting down of forests for fuel and farmland are still moving upward, although Richard Duncan and others have shown that energy use per capita has already started to decline, the world's fisheries are also in decline as the remaining fish cannot reproduce themselves fast enough to replace those caught, and other indicators such as plant and animal species are in serious decline. Non-renewable resources such as fossil fuels and metal ores are being quickly depleted. The planet is also becoming fouled with the effluents of our industry and our overpopulation, and topsoil is being lost at an alarming rate. The current population load of the planet, with the current energy-and resource-intensive lifestyles of the industrial nations and with the overloaded carrying capacity of the Third World, is only being supported by accelerating damage to our common habitat.(f.#16) At some point, the upward-moving trends of industrialism and human population will reach the limits imposed by our finite habitat, peak, and begin to decline.(f.#17) Most of us have seen a graph of the human population rocketing upward into the billions and have probably wondered 'How can this continue? What is the solution to this predicament? What will be the result?' On a fundamental level we all realize that the earth is finite and that population growth cannot be infinite. Some people believe that cosmetic actions such as recycling and family planning and restraint in consumption will solve the problem. This is putting a band-aid on an incurable condition. Others believe that technology, the deus ex machina and handmaiden of industrialism that in many ways exacerbates our problems, will come to the rescue. Some simply maintain their denial and affirm that infinite growth is not only possible but is the desired good and end. The reality is, however, that fundamental and painful change will result as the human population peaks, slopes downwards, and crashes.(f.#18) As energy resources decline we will literally enter into a new dark age. As food resources decline we will enter into a new age of generalized famine. And as all resources relative to the swollen world population decline, we will enter into a new age of anarchic struggle over resources, compelled by a fierce competition for survival which will strip off the veneer of civilization.(f.#19)
B. All forms of death checks are necessary to avoid the crunch

Elwell, Rogers State University, 2001 (Frank W., Reclaiming Malthus, http://www.faculty.rsu.edu/~felwell/Theorists/Malthus/reclaim.html) The first big idea is this: "Our ability to produce children will always exceed our ability to secure food for their survival." Because of this fact of human existence, population growth must always be checked. Not in the distant future, but always. In the past, in the present, and in the future. Always. There is simply no getting around this basic biological fact. Now, Malthus goes on to write there are only two ways to check population growth. One is through preventive checks- abstinence and delayed marriage, non- procreative sex, and birth control. The other Malthus calls "positive checks." Here Malthus is writing of premature death in some form. Such checks will include infanticide, abortion, pestilence, and disease leading to lower levels of reproduction and death.
C. Uncontrolled population growth causes environmental degradation and extinction

Rose, 2000 (J., Population Problems, p. 31) Uncontrolled population growth is the biggest crime of humanity because it induces environmental/ecological destruction due to overdevelopment, including excessive deforestation, urbanization, agricultural development, overgrazing etc. Most of the development in the twentieth century, particularly after world war, has accelerated a crisis toward famine-and even extinction of human civilization, which could result from an extreme diminution of natural resources.
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1NC Shell 2/2

D. Every life saved now is 10 killed in the crunch
Ehrlich, Stanfard University professor of biology, 1984 (Paul, NEW YORK TIMES MAGAZINE, June 16, p. 31) If you deluded people into thinking that either the U.S. could (or woul) supply food in perpetuity for any number of people, you were doing evil. Sooner or later population would completely outstrip the capacity of any other nation to supply food. For every 1000 people saved now, perhaps 10,000 will die when the crunch comes.
Optional: Morality/Impact Calculation E. Morality and ethics demand that you must act to address the impacts of overpopulation the well being of Earths biosystem has a moral priority over individauls
Elliott, University of Florida Emeritus Philosophy, 1997 (Herschel, A General Statement of the Tragedy of the Commons, February 26, http://www.dieoff.org/page121.htm) Third, all systems of ethical beliefs are hypotheses about how human beings can live on Earth. As such, they make factual claims. And like all factual claims, their truth or falsity depends on empirical evidence. For this reason, the sequence of biological events which the general statement of the tragedy of the commons describes is of decisive importance for ethical theory. It shows (1) that moral behavior must be grounded in a knowledge of biology and ecology, (2) that moral obligations must be empirically tested to attain necessary biological goals, (3) that any system of moral practices is self-inconsistent when the behavior, which it either allows or makes morally obligatory, actually subverts the goal it seeks. Thus empirical criteria give a necessary (though not a sufficient) condition for acceptable moral behavior. Regardless of the human proclivity to rationalize, any system of ethical beliefs is mistaken if its practice would cause the breakdown of the ecosystem which sustains the people who live by it. Indeed, biological necessity has a veto over moral behavior. Facts can refute moral beliefs Fourth, ecosystems are in dynamic equilibrium. In addition, technology and human institutions are constantly evolving in novel and unpredictable ways. Furthermore, living things must compete with each other for space and resources; yet each organism also depends symbiotically on the well-being of the whole for its own survival and well-being. Indeed the welfare of all organisms -including human beings -- is causally dependent on the health and stability of the ecosystems which sustain them. As a consequence, the stability and well-being of the Earth's biosystem has moral priority over the welfare of any of its parts -including the needs and interests of human societies and individuals.
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Uniqueness
African population is growing fast
Bryant, University of California Los Angeles School of Biological Sciences, 2005 (Peter, Biodiversity and Conservation, http://darwin.bio.uci.edu/~sustain/bio65/lec16/b65lec16.htm (PDAF1259) 96% of the projected addition of 3.6 billion people during the period between now and 2030 will occur in the developing nations, where the overall growth rate is 2.1% per year. The fastest growing continent is Africa, which is predicted to double in 23 years; it contains the fastest growing nation, Kenya, with a doubling time of 20 years.
Africa will soon overshoot carrying capacity.

Henao and Baanante, International Food Policy Research Institute, 1999 (Julio and Carlos, Nutrient Depletion in the Agricultural Soils of Africa, http://www.ifpri.org/2020/briefs/number62.htm) About two-thirds of Africans depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. The fate of agricultural production, therefore, directly affects economic growth, social improvement, and trade in Africa. As the regions population continues to grow rapidly, outpacing the growth rate in other regions of the world, its agricultural land is becoming increasingly degraded. Farmers are intensifying land use to meet food needs without proper management practices and external inputs. The resulting depletion of nutrients from soils has caused crop producti on to stagnate or decline in many African countries. In some cases, notably in the East African highlands, the rate of depletion is so high that even drastic measures, such as doubling the application of fertilizer or manure or halving erosion losses, would not be enough to offset nutrient deficits. Unless African governments, supported by the international community, take the lead in confronting the problems of nutrient depletion, deteriorating agricultural productivity will seriously undermine the foundations of sustainable economic growth in Africa.
Massive population growth in sub-Saharan Africa in the status quo, threatening carrying capacity
Hugh, macroeconomist, 2006 (Edward, Rethinking the Demographic Transition, http://www.edwardhugh.net/rethinking_the_demographic_.pdf) The projected figures for sub-Saharan Africa are the most problematic, climbing from 10 per cent of the worlds population in 2000 to 17 per cent in 2050 and to 21 per cent in 2100 before remaining constant at around one-fifth of the global population. The population of sub-Saharan Africa is multiplied by 2.4 in the first half of the twenty-first century and by 3.1 over the whole century to reach almost two billion in 2100 (the whole worlds population in 1920). That is likely to happen because three-quarters of this growth is projected to occur within the first half of the twentyfirst century (half of that growth being attributable to females already born) and is based firmly on current conditions: a late fertility transition, still mostly in urban areas, and current total fertility rates close to six outside Southern Africa. That the transition may be even later than has hitherto been feared is shown by the most recent figures for Nigeria, which contains almost one-fifth of the population of sub-Saharan Africa. The total fertility recorded by the 1990 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) was 6.0 and that for the 1999 DHS was 5.2, apparently evidence of the kind of persistent fall in fertility that characterized the early stages of transition in many countries in other parts of the developing world. But the 2003 DHS found a total fertility of 5.7 children per woman and agreed with the suspicion voiced in the report on the 1999 survey that the 1999 survey was unreliable (National Population Commission 2000, 2003). Nigerias annual rate of natural increase may still be close to three per cent in spite of very considerable efforts put into the national faily planning programme, and 38 per cent of women surveyed in 2003 having at least secondary education and 32 per cent being in urban areas. Similarly, the 2003 DHS for Kenya shows a cessation of fertility decline with a 20002002 total fertility of 4.9 children per woman instead of the medium projections figure for 20002005 of 4.15 children per woman. It seems scarcely possible that sub-Saharan Africa could feed two billion people. It lacks the alluvial soils of the great riverine basins of Asia and volcanic soils are largely confined to parts of East Africa that are already densely settled (Rwandas population density is over 800 persons per square mile, a comparable Asian density being that of Sri Lanka). Water resources are largely in the wrong places: the Congo River is nowhere near good irrigable soils; the much less voluminous Niger River does flow through good savannah grassland soils but its water available for irrigation is mostly already employed.
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Links
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Links Death Checks

Death checks in sub Saharan Africa are key to maintaining a stable population.
Bryant, 2004 (Peter, Biodiversity and Conservation: A Hypertext Book, http://www.tufts.edu/tie/tci/RepsManual/5%20ECORep%20Training%20Manual-population.doc, (PDAF1252)) In 1999 the Worldwatch Institute reported that rising death rates are slowing world population growth for the first time since famine killed 30 million people in China in 1959-61. Partly because of these rising death rates, the U.N. revised its estimate for world population in 2025 from 9.4 to 8.9 billion. Three factors are pushing the death rates up, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and the Indian sub-continent.
War, famine, and disease are all good checks on death

Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 1967 (TE Smith, Vol 369, January, Quentin Stanfords The World Population) The Damage to human life which has at times been caused by war, famine, and disease can be simply illustrated by a few examples. The Taiping rebellion in China in the 1850s is thought to have led to the deaths of 30 million people. In Ireland, the Great Famine of 1846-7 caused close to one million deaths out of a population of eight million as a result of starvation and accompanying diseases. The influenza epidemic of 1978 caused 15 million deaths in a population of just over 300 millions in India subcontinent alone. In all countries, the cities tend to be such insanity and unhealthy places, until well into the nineteenth century, that urban death rates were usually far higher than rural death rates. In general, while medicine remained an undeveloped science and the mass of the population had a low level, death rates were always very high by current standards, and the occasional disasters whether caused by disease, war, or famine, resulted in periods of actual population decline.
Anything that limits population is an appropriate death check; its up to us to decide what we want to happen to balance the environment
Fremlin, British Physicist, 1964 (JH in Quentin Stanfords The World Population) Many readers will doubtless feel that something unconsidered must turn up to prevent us from reaching the limiting conditions I have supposed. One point of this study is however to suggest that apart from the ultimate problem of heat, we are now, or soon will be, able to cope with anything that might turn up. Anything which limits population growth in the future will, therefore, be something that we can avoid if we wish. It would be perfectly possible to choose no to eliminate some major killing disease or to neglect the world food problem and let famine do its work, but this would have to be a positive decision; it can no longer happen by mistakes. Consequently all methods of limitation of population growth will, from now on, be artificial in the sense that they are consciously planned for, whether or not the plan is carried out by individuals for themselves. We are collectively free to choose at what density we want to call a halt, somewhere between the 0,000006 per square meter of the present and the 120 per square meter of the heat limit; if we do not choose, eventually we shall reach that limit.
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Links Public Health Assistance

Public health measures in developing countries increase population growth negating any advantage in saving lives
Schneider, University of Albany School of Public Health, 2006 (Mary-Jane, Introduction to Public Health, p. 428) The earths human population has been growing rapidly and continuously for centuries. While the rate of growth appears to be slowing, the science of population biology suggests that a disastrous population crash is possible, a result of environmental pressures. Paradoxically, public health measures such as clean water, immunization, and pest control have contributed to population growth by saving lives. While improved life expectancy has led to a fall in birth rates in industrialized countries, in the developing world population control efforts have not kept up with other public health efforts. The resulting crowding threatens to reverse the advances that have been made in public health. Migrants from rural areas, in search of jobs, settle in urban shantytowns that lack adequate drinking water and sewage services. These conditions lead to frequent epidemics of infectious diseases, and the accompanying social breakdown contributed to the rise of the AIDS epidemic. The AIDS epidemic in turn is so severe in parts of Africa that it has put a stop to population growth in those countries.
Public health improvements increase population and threaten future global heath
Guest and Jones, Family Health International and University of North Carolina, 2005 (Greg and Eric C., Globalization, health and the Environment: An Integrated Perspective, ed. Greg Guest, p. 12) We do not wish to suggest that globalization has not benefited humankinds health. In many ways it has. Medical technology and improvements in health care have extended the length of the average human life (see, e.g., chapters by McElroy and Joseph, this volume): the average female in Japan today lives to an astounding 85 years of age. Infant mortality is at its lowest point in human history; people are living longer nowadays than ever before; and the percentage of people over 65 will increase from 5% in 1950 to 15% in 2050. However, it may be that as a species we are too adaptive. Empirically, this is impossible to test, as the answer rests far in the future. But the point is that human demographic trends and health achievements associated with globalization such as lower infant mortality and increasing population (see Joseph, this volume)may bring increased risks for future fertility, such as pollution and constraints on food production and distribution. To be fair, the fertility rate has been decreasing in all regions of the world over the last 40 years. However, the sheer magnitude of men and women of childbearing age has caused the total number of births, and thus population, to increase. According to the UNs medium estimate, population growth resulting from this population momentum is expected to top out at around nine billion people in 2075.
Improvements in public health increase life expectancy

Bongaarts and Bulatao, Committee on Population National Research Council, 2000 (John, and Rodolfo, Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the Worlds Population, Commission on Behavioral and Social Science and Education, p. 7) With progress in standards of living, nutrition, and medicine, and public health, annual fluctuations in mortality were gradually reduced, and life expectancy began a long, steady rise.
Improvements in public health and declines in death are the key causes of population increases
Gurtzner, World Hunger Service Executive Director, 1991 (Patricia, World Hunger, p. 261) The primary cause of the population explosion of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries is declining death rates, not higher birth rates. High birth rates are a lingering pattern from an era of much higher death rates and severely restrict the roles of women. Continued high birth rates exacerbate the population explosion but they are not its primary cause. Improved public health is the chief culprit improved sanitation, prevention of communicable disease, reduced infant mortality, and better treatment of disease.
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Links African Aid

Aid to Africa pushes the population to disastrous levels.
Abernethy, Vanderbilt professor of sciology, 1999 (Virginia, Population Politics, p. 127) But why attend to the facts? Helping feels good to many westerners and "one-world" sounds great. Third-world spokespersons sound reasonable and do not personify their people's poverty. So why rethink policy? The answer is that one needs to really help. Little time remains. Delay only increases suffering. One-world ideology, which implies that resources will be shared, is one of the villains in the persistently high fertility of the third world. A great irony-and one of the saddest-is that promises of aid, and the aid itself, endanger the very countries that receive the most. Good intentions cannot excuse dealing the final blow to the preservation of livable environments in the world's poorest countries. Summing up, the global population threat may be worse than we think, and some impulses to help may do more harm than good. Those are bitter pills.
Aid to sub Saharan Africa dramatically increases population growth and fertility.
Azarnert, Tel-Aviv University, The Eitan Berglas School of Economics, 2004 (Leonid, Foreign Aid and Population Growth: Evidence from Africa, http://www.commerce.uct.ac.za/Research_Units/DPRU/DPRUConference2004/Papers/Foreign_Aid_and_Population_Growth_Leonid_Azarnert.pdf) This work investigates the effect of foreign aid on fertility and population growth. It uses a panel of main 43 Sub-Saharan African countries over the last four decades of the 20thcentury. In the analysis of population growth rate, two different specifications of the regression model are applied. The first specification is to regress population growth rate. The second specification is to estimate the first difference of population growth rate on the first differences of the explanatory variables. Both the approaches demonstrate a positive and statistically significant effect of foreign aid on population growth. In the analysis of fertility, three different estimation methods are applied. The effect of aid on both total fertility rate and crude birth rate is shown to be positive and significant regardless of the method of estimation. These findings suggest that the true appreciation of the demographic effect of foreign aid can have important implications for policies designed to promote economic growth.
Aid to Africa dramatically increases population.

Azarnert, Tel-Aviv University, The Eitan Berglas School of Economics, 2004 (Leonid, Foreign Aid and Population Growth: Evidence from Africa, http://www.commerce.uct.ac.za/Research_Units/DPRU/DPRUConference2004/Papers/Foreign_Aid_and_Population_Growth_Leonid_Azarnert.pdf) Theoretical growth models with endogenous fertility have long postulated that income transfers to the poor increase population growth because the income effect entices the poor to increase their family size (e.g., Morand, 1999; Azarnert, 2004).14Accordingly, the theory predicts that aid flows from advanced economies to developing countries should have a similar effect. This section analyzes the effect of foreign aid on fertility and population growth in Africa in a panel regression framework.15In every specification, the estimation coefficient on foreign aid is shown to be positive and statistically significant.
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Links African Aid

All studies agree that aid to Africa increases overpopulation.
Azarnert, Tel-Aviv University, The Eitan Berglas School of Economics, 2004 (Leonid, Foreign Aid and Population Growth: Evidence from Africa, http://www.commerce.uct.ac.za/Research_Units/DPRU/DPRUConference2004/Papers/Foreign_Aid_and_Population_Growth_Leonid_Azarnert.pdf) Sub-Saharan Africa has long been the most aided region of the developing world.1At the same time, the Sub-Saharan African population has been growing faster than that of any other major world region.2Although an enormous literature has been devoted to different aspects of foreign aid,3existing works do not consider a possible connection between the two aforementioned facts. This paper attempts to fill the existing gap by investigatingthe effect of foreign aid on population growth.The benefits of foreign aid have been recently under severe scrutiny. Several observers argue that a large portion of aid is wasted and only increases unproductive consumption.4It is argued that, where economic and political environment is poor, foreign assistance has no positive impact on the recipients macroeconomic policies and growth,5and can generate more development problems than it solves.6The present study expands the previous literature by examining the empiricalrelationship between foreign aid and population growth. It provides evidence of the positive and significant effect of aid on population growth rates using a panel of main 43 Sub-Saharan African countries over the last four decades of the 20thcentury. The paper also directly addresses the positive association between aid and fertility.
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Links Sub Saharan Africa key

Sub Saharan Africa is the biggest overpopulation risk in the world.
Longman, New American Foundation Schwartz Senior Fellow, 2004 (Phillip, Decline in birthrates and its effect on the world,) Well, world population is still growing by 75 million a year. That's a lot. Most of it is in Subsaharan Africa and in the Middle East. You know, there's this phenomenon of population momentum. When you have an era of very high fertility, which we did have through much of the 20th century, even when birthrates go down, that still leaves a large number of people of child-bearing age. And so population has a certain momentum. It continues to grow, but albeit at a slower and slower rate.
Growth rates in Africa are the fastest growing

About My Planet.com, 2006 (Population Control? http://aboutmyplanet.com/community/pollution/417-population-control.html) Average annual rates of population change show that Africa has experienced considerably faster growth than any other major area, for most of the 1950-2000 period (figure 2). Growth rates reached a higher peak in Africa (2.86 per cent) than anywhere elsein the early 1980s, at least 15 years after growth had begun to decline in every other major area.
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Links Solving Diseases

Disease spread is a crucial death check.
Hardin, Unversity of California San Deigo, 1991 (Dr. Garrett, Population and Environment, Spring, p. 345-6, (PDAF1363)) The potential of exponential growth in the human population is a standing threat of human welfare. Until very recently, however, this threat was mitigated by the sporadic eruption of such crowd-disease as dysentery, cholera and plague, which, at their worst, could wipe out a quarter to a half of population in a year or two. Crowd-diseases were the most important negative feedbacks of the Malthusian demostat.
Diseases greatly influence mortality and provide a crucial death check

Bongart and Bulatao, National Research Council Committee on Population, 2000 (John and Rudolfo, Beyond Six Billion: forecasting the Worlds Population, Commission on Behavioral and Socail Science and Education, National Research Council, p. 143) Future mortality declines may be slowed or halted by epidemics of new infectious diseases or resurgent older diseases (such as influenza. tuberculosis, and malaria), particularly in countries with poorer infrastructure and health conditions. The likelihood of such epidemics may increase as infectious organisms may become pesticide-resistant, and it may also rise with increased travel and changing environmental conditions.
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Links Solving AIDS - Generic

AIDS increases the death rate and decreases life expectancy in sub-Saharan Africa, thus substantially reducing population growth this death check is crucial to prevent overpopulation
U.S. Department of Commerce, 2004 (The AIDS Pandemic in the 21st Century, Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Agency for International Development, Bureau for Global health Office of HIV/AIDS, March, http://www.census.gov/ipc/prod/wp02/wp02.pdf, p. 12) At the beginning of the 21st century, Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), which causes the Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) continues to have its greatest impact in the developing world. Although the full demographic impact is not expected to be felt for several more years, and perhaps will not be completely measured at the pandemic's epicenter in SubSaharan Africa, the emerging downward trends in life expectancy and population growth, the distortions in age structures, and the breakdowns in support systems are already being seen in some countries. At the extreme in Southern Africa, Botswana, South Africa, and Zimbabwe are thought to be experiencing negative population growth due to AIDS mortality. At the beginning of the 21st century, AIDS is the number four cause of death globally but the number one cause of death in Africa. If current trends in HIV seroprevalence (the proportion of population infected with HIV) continue into the near future and existing relationships between HIV infection rates and subsequent AIDS mortality continue to hold, the AIDS pandemic will dictate the size, growth, and age-sex structures of entire populations around the world. The U.S. Census Bureau's modeling and projections work indicates that severe distortions in age-sex structures are likely in severely affected countries. In countries with moderate epidemics, AIDS mortality is expected to have less effect on the population structure. Life expectancies in HIV/AIDS affected countries are projected to decline, negating gains achieved during the past several decades. By 2010, many countries in southern Africa are expected to see life expectancies falling to near 30 years of age, levels not seen since the beginning of the 20th century. The most direct impact of AIDS is expected to be an increase in the number of deaths in populations affected. In many Sub- Saharan African countries, crude death rates are projected to be even higher in 2010 than in 2000, even though mortality due to non-AIDS causes will continue to decline. Infant mortality rates are now higher than they were in 1990 in some Sub-Saharan African countries. In four Sub-Saharan African countries, more infants are likely to die from AIDS in 2010 than from all other causes. In 26 SubSaharan African countries, under-5 mortality rates have increased over what they would have been without AIDS. Based on current trends, under-5 mortality rates in 2010 are expected to be much higher with AIDS than they would have been without AIDS. If programs to prevent mother-to-child transmission are dramatically scaled up, then the course of future child mortality rates can be changed. By 2010, populations in the majority of Sub-Saharan African countries are projected to increase, despite the high levels of mortality. The exceptions are Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, South Africa, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe. U.S. Census Bureau The AIDS Pandemic in the 21st Century: 2002 3
AIDS has caused zero population growth

Population Resource Center, 2004 (http://www.prcdc.org/summaries/aidsinafrica/aidsinafrica.html) Estimated crude death rates in eastern and southern Africa are as much as 50 to 500 percent greater than they would have been without AIDS. In Kenya, the crude death rate is estimated to have increased from 6.5 per thousand to 14.1 per thousand population due to AIDS. In South Africa, the estimated crude death rate has almost doubled, from 7.4 to 14.7 deaths per thousand population. In South Africa, it is estimated that in 2000, HIV/AIDS was the cause of 40 percent of adult deaths aged 15-49 and 25 percent of all deaths. Projections show that without treatment to prevent AIDS, the number of AIDS-related deaths will increase to more than double the number of deaths from all other causes within the next ten years. The population growth rate in Zimbabwe has been reduced to nearly zero because of AIDS-related deaths. Sharply reduced growth rates are also seen in South Africa, Botswana, Malawi, Namibia, Swaziland and Zambia. By 2003, there will be negative population growth in Botswana, South Africa and Zimbabwe. Negative population growth has never before been projected in a developing country; it is caused by a combination of high HIV prevalence and declining relatively low fertility. In the 35 African countries that are highly affected by HIV/AIDS, life expectancy at birth is estimated at 48.3 years, 6.5 years less than it would have been without HIV. The projected population of these countries in 2015 is 84 million, 10 per cent less than it would have been without AIDS. Life expectancy and child mortality rates, two indicators of development that have shown positive trends in recent years, are now being reversed in parts of Africa.
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Links Solving AIDS Generic

AIDS greatly affects population growth in the developing world
U.S. Department of Commerce, 2004 (The AIDS Pandemic in the 21st Century, Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Agency for International Development, Bureau for Global health Office of HIV/AIDS, March, http://www.census.gov/ipc/prod/wp02/wp02.pdf, p. 79) The AIDS pandemic in the 21st century continues to have devastating impacts on populations, particularly in the developing world. Since the beginning of the epidemic two decades ago, more than 20 million people have died of AIDS. Twice that many-40 million-are now living with HIV. Barring some major breakthrough, most of these people are expected to die during the next 10 years or so. In 2001, the Joint United Nations Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS) estimated that 5 million people were newly infected with HIV.
AIDS means slower population growth as deaths outnumber births

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2005 (World Population Prosepects The 2004 Revision: Highlights, Population Division, February 24, http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WPP2004/2004Highlights_finalrevised.pdf, p. 32) Twenty-five years into the HIV/AIDS epidemic, the impact of the disease is evident in terms of increased morbidity and mortality and slower population growth. In Southern Africa, the region with the highest HIV/AIDS prevalence of the disease, life expectancy has fallen from 62 years in 1990-1995 to 48 years in 2000-2005, and is projected to decrease further to 43 years over the next decade before a slow recovery starts. As a consequence, population growth in the region is expected to stall between 2005 and 2020. In Botswana, Lesotho and Swaziland, the population is projected to decrease as deaths outnumber births. In most of the other developing countries affected by the epidemic, population growth will continue to be positive because their moderate or high fertility more than counterbalances the rise in mortality.
HIV epidemic is slowing population growth in sub-Saharan Africa

Brown, Worldwatch Institute President, and Halweil, Staff Researcher at Worldwatch Institute, 1999 (Lester R., Brian, HIV Epidemic Slowing Population Growth as World Approaches 6 Billion, Worldwatch Institute, September 28, http://www.worldwatch.org/node/1662) As world population approaches 6 billion on October 12, the HIV epidemic is measurably slowing population growth. Nowhere is this more evident than in sub-Saharan Africa, a region of 800 million people, where the epidemic is spiraling out of control. If a low-cost cure is not found soon, countries with adult HIV infection rates over 20 percent, such as Botswana, South Africa, and Zimbabwe, will lose one fifth or more of their adult population to AIDS within the next decade. When the United Nation's demographers did their biennial update of world population numbers and projections in October of 1998, they reduced the projected global population for 2050 from 9.4 billion to 8.9 billion. Of this 500 million drop, two thirds was because of falling fertility. That's the good news. The bad news is that one third of the fall was the result of rising mortality from AIDS.
Population growth is slowing because of AIDS

United Nations Population Division, 2004 (The Impact of AIDS, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/AIDSimpact/5_CHAP_II.pdf) Partly as a result of the increase in mortality brought about by the HIV/AIDS epidemic, the rate of population growth has declined and will continue to do so in the countries affected. In the five most affected countries, the annual growth rate is expected to become negative in the near future. Figure 5 shows that in the 38 African countries considered, annual population growth will be significantly lower than it would have been in the absence of the AIDS epidemic. In the seven most affected countries, the expected reduction of the growth rate is even larger (figure 6). In Botswana, Lesotho, South Africa, Swaziland and Zimbabwe, the annual growth rate is expected to become negative by 2015.
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Links Solving AIDS - Generic

Population will decrease by half a billion because of the AIDS epidemic
Obaid, United Nations Population Fund Executive Director, 2003 (Thoraya Ahmed, Ssaving Womens Lives, smith College Lecture, UNFPA, March 26, http://www.unfpa.org/news/news.cfm?ID=271) And this situation is made even more urgent with the spread of HIV/AIDS. The United Nations anticipates a more serious and prolonged impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the most affected countries than was previously envisioned. In fact, the spread of HIV/AIDS and the increase in deaths, along with a reduction in births, are the two factors that caused the United Nations to revise its population projections downward. Let me put the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS into focus. The United Nations estimates that there will be half a billion fewer people in the world by mid-century partly because of AIDS. This statistic is startling, in its own right. During this century, there will be an estimated 278 million excess deaths due to AIDS. This is more people than those who died from all the conflicts during the 20th century. Whereas a few years ago, it was thought that population would continue to grow or remain stable in the most severely affected countries due to moderate or high fertility levels, the new data shows that four countries will actually experience a population decline due to AIDS by mid-century. They are: Botswana, Lesotho, South Africa and Swaziland. In Botswana, the country with the highest HIV prevalence, where over one out of every three adults is HIVpositive, population growth has already been significantly reduced, and population decline is projected to begin in the next few years. It is projected that Botswana's population will be 20 per cent lower in 2050 than it was in 2000. By 2015, the population of the most highly affected countries in Africa is projected to be 10 per cent lower than it would have been without AIDS, with an estimated 14.8 million excess deaths from AIDS during the first five years of this new century. In Asia, an estimated 3.3 million excess deaths will occur from AIDS during the first five years of this century, compared to 0.7 million in Latin America and the Caribbean. India alone is expected to experience 2.2 million excess deaths during this period because of the AIDS epidemic. In Russia, the HIV infection rate is fastest growing in the world and it certainly will affect an already declining population.
AIDS is slowing world population growth

Brown, Earth Policy Institute Found, President, and Senior Researcher, 2001 (Lester R., Breaking Out or Breaking Down: Chapter 10, Stabilizing Population by Reducing Fertility, Earth Policy Institute, http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/Eco/EEch10_ss2.htm) For the first time since China's great famine claimed 30 million lives in 1959-61, world population growth is being slowed by rising death rates. (See Figure 10-1.) Although rapid population growth continues in scores of countries, the world is beginning to divide into two parts: one where population growth is slowing as fertility falls, and another where population growth is slowing as mortality rises. One way or the other, population growth will slow. That rising death rates from AIDS have already reduced the projected population for 2050 by more than 150 million represents a failure of our political institutions unmatched since the outbreak of World War II.4 The world is starting to reap the consequences of past neglect of the population issue. The two regions where death rates either are already rising or are likely to do so are [in] sub-Saharan Africa and the Indian subcontinent, which together contain 1.9 billion people--nearly one third of humanity. Without clearly defined government strategies in countries with rapid population growth to lower birth rates quickly and a commitment by the international community to support them, one third of humanity could slide into a demographic black hole. After nearly half a century of continuous population growth, the demand in many countries for food, water, and forest products is simply outrunning the capacity of local life-support systems. In addition, the ever growing number of young people who need health care and education is exceeding the availability of these services. If birth rates do not come down soon, these natural systems and social services are likely to deteriorate to the point where death rates will rise. But what will cause death rates to go up in individual countries? Will it be starvation? An outbreak of disease? War? Social disintegration? At some point as population pressures build, governments are simply overwhelmed and are not able to respond to new threats. There are now three clearly identifiable threats that either are already pushing death rates up or have the potential to do sothe HIV epidemic, aquifer depletion, and land hunger. Of these three, the HIV epidemic is the first to spiral out of control in developing countries. The epidemic should be seen for what it is: an international emergency of epic proportions, one that could claim more lives in the early part of this century than World War II did in the last one. In sub-Saharan Africa, HIV infection rates are soaring, already affecting one fifth to one third or more of adults in Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.5 Barring a medical miracle, many African countries will lose a fifth or more of their adult populations to AIDS by the end of this decade. To find a precedent for such a potentially devastating loss of life from an infectious disease, we have to go back to the decimation of New World Indian communities by the introduction of smallpox in the sixteenth century or to the Bubonic plague that claimed roughly a third of Europe's population during the fourteenth century.
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AIDS will decrease the population by millions; mortality is only projected to increase
United Nations Population Division, 2004 (The Impact of AIDS, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/AIDSimpact/5_CHAP_II.pdf) The present chapter documents the likely impact of HIV/AIDS in the 53 countries where adult HIV prevalence is already significant. The toll that the disease is having is already serious and is projected to worsen. By 2025, the population of the 38 most affected countries in Africa is expected to be at least 156 million lower than it would have been in the absence of AIDS. Between 1995-2025, some 98 million additional deaths are expected to occur in those countries as a result of AIDS, and about 58 million children will not be born because of the early deaths of women of reproductive age. The increase in mortality caused by AIDS has reached major proportions in several countries. In Botswana, Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe, life expectancy at birth has already plummeted, dropping within a decade to levels last recorded in the 1950s and early 1960s. Infant and child mortality is also projected to increase in the countries most affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Taking Botswana, the country with the highest HIV/AIDS adult prevalence rate as an example, all indicators point to drastic demographic changes by 2025, as reflected in the distorted population pyramid shown in figure 4. The size of the population will be more than 40 per cent lower than it would have been without AIDS, and the growth rate will be negative, resulting in a declining population. The crude death rate will increase from 5.7 deaths per 1,000 population in 1995-2000 to 31.3 deaths in 2010-2015. Life expectancy at birth, which reached 65 years in 1990-1995, will fall to only 39 years in 2010- 2015.
HIV accounts for 1/3 reduction of population in sub-Saharan Africa

Allan, University of Michigan professor, 2005 (David, Population Growth and World History, January 21, http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange2/current/lectures/human_pop/human_pop.html) About one-third of the reduction in long-range population projections, however, is due to increasing mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of the Indian subcontinent. The most important factor is HIV/AIDS, which is spreading much faster than previously anticipated.
AIDS is included in U.N. overpopulation calculations

Engelman, Population Action International, Population and Environment Program director, 1998 (Robert, Population and Global Security, p. 54) In some pockets of sub-Saharan Africa, the AIDS pandemic is reversing past progress on decreasing mortality rates a special tragedy in that African life-expectancy have never approached that of the rest of the world. Although demographers usually hesitate to factor epidemics into their projections of mortality, the impact of AIDS is so pervasive and resistant to intervention that recent UN projections have introduced increased mortality into the calculations for sub-Saharan Africa
AIDS is decimating the population in Africa however, high fertility rates still means growth
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2005 (World Population Prosepects The 2004 Revision: Highlights, Population Division, February 24, http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WPP2004/2004Highlights_finalrevised.pdf, p. 32) Altogether, the 60 countries highly affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic will have a total population in 2015 that is 115 million lower than in a no-AIDS scenario (table III.3). This difference is expected to grow to 344 million by 2050. Nearly three-quarters of the difference in 2050 is attributable to African countries. Despite the negative impact of the epidemic on population growth rates, however, the populations of affected countries are generally expected to be larger by mid-century than today, mainly because most of them maintain high to moderate fertility levels. Only the three countries with the highest prevalence in 2003Swaziland, Botswana, and Lesothoare expected to experience negative population growth rates mostly attributable to excess mortality due to AIDS.
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AIDS will cause a 35% population reduction in sub-Saharan Africa
United Nations Population Division, 2004 (The Impact of AIDS, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/AIDSimpact/5_CHAP_II.pdf) Figure 2, table 4, and annex tables A.7 and A.8 present the projected population size from 1995 to 2025, taking into account the demographic impact of AIDS as well as the hypothetical projected population in the absence of AIDS. The absolute difference between the projected population with and without AIDS indicates the cumulative impact of AIDS. For the 53 countries considered, the population is estimated at 3.4 billion as of mid-1995, about 9 million fewer than it would have been in the absence of AIDS. The proportional impact of AIDS on population size is more marked in Africa. In the 38 most affected African countries, the population size is estimated at 533 million in 1995, 6 million less than it would have been in the absence of AIDS. By 2025, the population of these 38 African countries will reach 983 million, that is, 156 million (or 14 per cent) fewer than in the absence of AIDS. The impact of AIDS on population size is even more striking in the seven countries with an adult prevalence of 20 per cent or more (figure 3, table 4 and annex table A.8). In 1995, their population stood at 68 million, 1 per cent less than it would have been without AIDS. Since the impact of the epidemic is projected to increase, the difference between the projected population with and without AIDS rises, in relative terms, to 10 per cent in 2005 and 35 per cent in 2025. The impact of AIDS on the population size of the countries with prevalence rates of 10 to 20 per cent is also projected to be severe. By 2025, their population is projected to be 21 per cent lower than in the absence of AIDS. In the countries where adult HIV prevalence ranges between 5 and 10 per cent, 11 per cent fewer people are projected in 2025 than in the absence of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, and in the group of countries with prevalence rates below 2 per cent, the population size is projected to be 2 per cent lower in 2025 than it would have been in the absence of AIDS. At the country level, by 2025, the populations of Botswana, Lesotho and Zimbabwe are expected to be more than 40 per cent lower than they would have been in the absence of AIDS. In some countries, including Botswana, Lesotho and South Africa, the population size is expected to start declining after 2005.
AIDS will increase death in sub-Saharan Africa by over 150%

United Nations Population Division, 2004 (The Impact of AIDS, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/AIDSimpact/5_CHAP_II.pdf) Number of deaths Table 3 and annex tables A.1 and A.2 present the projected number of deaths from 1995-2000 to 2020-2025 by country grouping, taking into account the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Also shown is the projected number of deaths if there were no epidemic. The difference between those two numbers is the additional number of deaths due to AIDS. The annual number of excess deaths in the 53 countries reached one million in the early 1990s, 3 million by 2000, and more than 4 million by 2003. The death toll will become much higher in the years to come (figure 1). The impact of AIDS on the number of deaths reaches its peak in 2020-2025. In the absence of AIDS, the total number of deaths in the 38 African countries considered would be expected to increase from 39 million in 1995-2000 to 46 million in 2020-2025. With AIDS, the total number of deaths is expected to rise instead to 64 million in 2020-2025, implying that the epidemic would cause almost 19 million (or 41 per cent) additional deaths during the latter period. In total, about 355 million deaths are projected to occur between 1995 and 2025 in the 38 African countries considered, a number 98 million higher than would have been expected in the absence of AIDS. South Africa will account for the largest share of those deaths (15.9 million), followed by Nigeria (14.1 million), Kenya (8.9 million) and Ethiopia (8.1 million). Figure 1 shows the projected toll of AIDS based on evidence about how the epidemic has been evolving so far. The reality may prove to be either better or worse. For future years, especially after 2010, the projected excess mortality due to AIDS increasingly represents the early death of persons who have not yet been infected. Whether the projection proves too optimistic or too pessimistic depends greatly on actions taken now to prevent the spread of the disease and improve the treatment of those who contract it. In the seven countries where adult HIV prevalence is above 20 per cent, the additional number of deaths from AIDS will rise from 71 per cent in 1995-2000 to 204 per cent in 2005-2010. Overall, between 1995 and 2025, those seven countries will experience about 30 million (156 per cent) additional deaths. The proportional increase in the number of deaths due to AIDS is highest in Botswana, where the number of additional deaths from AIDS is expected to reach 223,000 in 2005- 2010, more than four times the number of deaths without AIDS. In Zimbabwe, in that period, the number of deaths will be over 3 times as large as without AIDS, and in Swaziland and South Africa over twice as large. Outside of Africa, AIDS will increase the number of deaths by more than 25 per cent in the Bahamas (43 per cent), Haiti (40 per cent) and Trinidad and Tobago (30 per cent). In terms of absolute numbers, India and China are expected to experience the highest numbers of additional deaths caused by AIDS: 31 million in India between 1995-2025 and 18 million in China during the same period.
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Links Solving AIDS Plan Specific

The plan links AIDS mortality will continue to increase unless reversed by the aff plan
Overpopulation.com, 2005 (April 25, http://www.overpopulation.com/articles/2005/latest-un-projections-world-population-will-reach-91-billion-by-2050/) Global life expectancy continues to rise. The Population Division reports that global life expectancy rose from an estimated 47 years in 1950-1955 to 65 years in 2000-2005. By 2045-50, global life expectancy is expected to rise to 75 years. In developed countries, where life expectancy averages 76 years today, it is expected to reach 82 years by 2045-50. Those life expectancy projections assume that the developing world will be able to implement effective programs and policies to halt excess mortality due to HIV/AIDS. Whether or not this happens remains to be seen. As the Population Division reports, HIV/AIDS has taken a serious toll on life expectancy in some parts of Africa. In Southern Africa, for example, life expectancy fell from 62 years in 1990-1995 to just 48 years in 2000-2005, and is expected to drop even further to just 43 years over the next decade. The Population Division projects that 43 will represent a bottoming out of the crisis and that life expectancy in Southern Africa will then slowly begin to rise again. One of the main effects of the worldwide decline in total fertility rates will be an aging of the population that is unprecedented in human history. According to the Population Division, the number of people over the age of 60 is expected to triple from an estimated 672 million in 2005 to a whopping 1.9 billion by 2050. There will also be a 4.5-fold increase in the number of people over the age of 80, from an estimated 86 million today to 394 million in 2050.
The plan reverses AIDS mortality that is key to prevent overpopulation

United Nations, 2005 (World Population Prospects: 2004 Revision, http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WPP2004/2004Highlights_finalrevised.pdf) Among the least developed countries, where life expectancy today is 51 years, it is expected to be 67 years in 2045-2050. Because many of these countries are highly affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic, the projected increase in life expectancy is dependent on the implementation of effective programmes to prevent and treat HIV infection. In the rest of the developing world, under similar conditionalities, life expectancy is projected to rise from 66 years today to 76 years by mid-century.
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Links Solving AIDS Negative Population Growth

AIDS has caused negative population growth in sub-Saharan Africa
U.S. Department of Commerce, 2004 (The AIDS Pandemic in the 21st Century, Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Agency for International Development, Bureau for Global health Office of HIV/AIDS, March, http://www.census.gov/ipc/prod/wp02/wp02.pdf, p. 82) At the Beginning of the 21st Century, the Population Growth Rate in Botswana Is Now Negative Due to AIDS Mortality2 Other countries with sharply reduced growth rates include several additional African countries: Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia, and Zimbabwe (Figure 6). The negative population growth seen in Trinidad and Tobago in 2002 reflects the impact of outmigration and AIDS mortality. The underlying non-AIDS growth rate for Trinidad and Tobago is nearly -0.6 percent. In Asia, AIDS mortality has slightly lowered population growth rates in Burma, Cambodia, and Thailand. 14 The AIDS Pandemic in the 21st Century: 2002 U.S. Census Bureau Figure 6. Population Growth Rates With and Without AIDS for Selected Countries: 2002 Botswana is now experiencing negative population growth. In South Africa, growth is now less than half what it might have been in 2002 without AIDS. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, International Data Base and unpublished tables. Percent With AIDS Without AIDS -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 Cambodia Thailand Burma Guatemala Belize Honduras Haiti Dominican Republic Panama Bahamas, The Suriname Guyana Barbados Trinidad & Tobago Uganda Malawi Chad Sierra Leone Benin Congo (Kinshasa) Burkina Faso Burundi Mali Cte d'Ivoire Nigeria Zambia Togo Namibia Niger Gabon Senegal Swaziland Ethiopia Rwanda Djibouti Cameroon Zimbabwe Guinea Central African Rep. Kenya Tanzania Botswana Guinea-Bissau Angola Congo (Brazzaville) Lesotho Liberia Ghana Mozambique Eritrea South Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Asia Latin America and the Caribbean 2 Refer to Tables 1 and 2 for country-specific indicators.
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Links Solving AIDS Lowers Fertility

AIDS causes negative population growth and decreased fertility
U.S. Department of Commerce, 2004 (The AIDS Pandemic in the 21st Century, Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Agency for International Development, Bureau for Global health Office of HIV/AIDS, March, http://www.census.gov/ipc/prod/wp02/wp02.pdf, p. 82) In Figures 60 through 17, two series of data are shown for each of the 51 seriously affected countries where AIDS is having an impact on demographic indicators. The first series, "With AIDS," shows what has happened and what is projected to happen in each country because of AIDS mortality and its demographic consequences. In this work, fertility is assumed to be unaffected by HIV/AIDS, though numbers of births decrease as a result of mortality-induced reductions in women of reproductive age. Second, a hypothetical "Without AIDS" series shows what the Census Bureau's modeling work indicates would have happened if a country had not been affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic. This modeling takes into account not only lower death rates but also associated changes to a country's age-sex structure and, indirectly, the combined effects of lower mortality and changing population composition on demographic indicators. By the Year 2010, Five Countries Are Projected to Show Negative Population Growth Because of AIDS Mortality The growth rate for Botswana is projected to be suppressed and by 2010 it will be -2 percent. In South Africa it is projected to be -1.4 percent and in Swaziland -0.4 percent. This negative population growth is due to the high levels of HIV prevalence in these countries and relatively low fertility. Previously, most HIV/AIDS experts never expected HIV prevalence rates to reach such high levels for any country. By the end of 2001, adult HIV prevalence had reached an estimated 39 percent in Botswana, 20 percent in South Africa, and 33 percent in Swaziland (UNAIDS/WHO, 2002). By 2010, Zimbabwe and Namibia are projected to experience a growth rate of close to zero. Without AIDS, these countries would have had a growth rate of 2 percent or greater (Figure 7). In Latin America and the Caribbean, the Bahamas and Guyana are projected to see the greatest relative impact, with growth rates reduced from 1 percent to 0.5 percent. Trinidad and Tobagos already negative population growth, due to outmigration, is projected to decline further due to AIDS mortality.
HIV significantly reduces fertility

Brown, Worldwatch Institute President, and Halweil, Staff Researcher at Worldwatch Institute, 1999 (Lester R., Brian, HIV Epidemic Slowing Population Growth as World Approaches 6 Billion, Worldwatch Institute, September 28, http://www.worldwatch.org/node/1662) Aside from raising mortality, the virus also reduces fertility. With new infections at the highest level in the 15- to 24-year age group in sub-Saharan Africa, many young women will die before they complete their childbearing years. In addition, as the infection progresses toward full-blown AIDS, ovulation often ceases, reducing fertility further. The epidemic affects not just life expectancy and population growth, but virtually every facet of life. In a matter of years, the economic gains of this century could be wiped out, quite literally reversing the march of progress.
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Links Solving AIDS AT: High Fertility Causes Population Growth

Even countries with high fertility could have population growth halt because of AIDS
Brown, Worldwatch Institute President, and Halweil, Staff Researcher at Worldwatch Institute, 1999 (Lester R., Brian, HIV Epidemic Slowing Population Growth as World Approaches 6 Billion, Worldwatch Institute, September 28, http://www.worldwatch.org/node/1662) Governments in countries that have experienced several decades of rapid population growth appear to be suffering from "demographic fatigue." Struggling with the simultaneous challenge of educating growing numbers of children coming of school age, of creating jobs for the swelling ranks of young job seekers, and of dealing with the environmental effects of population growth such as deforestation and soil erosion, governments are simply being overwhelmed. When a major new threat arises, such as the HIV epidemic, they often cannot cope. All industrial countries have held HIV infection rates of their adult populations under 1 percent but in some countries of sub-Saharan Africa, they have climbed above 20 percent. In Botswana, the adult infection level is 26 percent. In Zimbabwe, 25 percent, and in South Africa, 22 percent. Countries with infection rates of 18 to 20 percent include Namibia, Swaziland, and Zambia. Problems routinely managed in industrial societies are becoming full-scale life threatening crises in many developing ones. As a result, some developing countries with high fertility could nonetheless see their population growth come to a halt in a matter of years because of rising death rates. Although Africa is the epicenter of the HIV epidemic, the virus has also established a strong foothold in southern and western India, particularly in cities such as Mumbai (Bombay) and Chennai (Madras). Other countries with high infection rates include Haiti and Cambodia, with 5 percent and 2.5 percent respectively. In sub-Saharan Africa, life expectancy, a sentinel indicator of economic progress, is falling precipitously. In Zimbabwe, until recently a model of economic development in the region, life expectancy has fallen from 60 years in 1990 to 44 years today, and it is projected to fall to 39 years by 2010.
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Links Solving AIDS Lowers Life Expectancies

AIDS has led to short life expectancies in sub-Saharan Africa
U.S. Department of Commerce, 2004 (The AIDS Pandemic in the 21st Century, Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Agency for International Development, Bureau for Global health Office of HIV/AIDS, March, http://www.census.gov/ipc/prod/wp02/wp02.pdf, p. 88) AIDS Mortality Is Causing Falling Life Expectancies at Birth Already, life expectancies in Sub- Saharan Africa have fallen dramatically from levels they likely would have reached without AIDS. In Botswana, life expectancy is now 34 years instead of 72. In Zimbabwe, life expectancy is 40 years instead of 69. In fact, seven countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, and Zambia) have life expectancies below 40 years. Each of the countries, except for Angola and Mozambique, would have had an estimated life expectancy of 50 years or more without AIDS (Figure 10). In Latin America and the Caribbean, the impact on life expectancy is not as great as in Sub-Saharan Africa because of lower HIV prevalence levels. However, life expectancy is still lower than it would have been without AIDS. In the Bahamas, life expectancy is now 66 years instead of 74; in Haiti, it is 51 instead of 59. Thailand, Cambodia, and Burma have lost 2 to 5 years of life expectancy.
AIDS has decreased life expectancies

U.S. Department of Commerce, 2004 (The AIDS Pandemic in the 21st Century, Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Agency for International Development, Bureau for Global health Office of HIV/AIDS, March, http://www.census.gov/ipc/prod/wp02/wp02.pdf, p. 99) In Less Than 10 Years, Some Countries Are Projected to See Life Expectancies Fall to Near 30 Years of Age, Levels Not Seen Since the Beginning of the 20th Century Among countries in Southern Africa that would have approached or exceeded life expectancies of 70 years of age by 2010 in the absence of AIDS, several are likely to see life expectancies fall to around 30: Botswana27 years Namibia34 years Swaziland33 years Other countries are likely to see life expectancies fall to 30-40 years instead of 50-60 years (Figure 65). By 2010, AIDS mortality is projected to continue to result in lower life expectancies in Latin America, the Caribbean, and Asia. Life expectancies are projected to be 10-14 years lower in Honduras, the Bahamas, and Guyana than they would have been without AIDS. They are likely to be 2 years lower in Thailand and 4 years lower in Cambodia and Burma.
AIDS decreases life expectancy

United Nations Population Division, 2004 (The Impact of AIDS, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/AIDSimpact/5_CHAP_II.pdf) Life expectancy at birth and crude death rate Life expectancy at birth, a measure indicating the average number of years that a newborn child would live if mortality remained constant throughout his or her lifetime, is estimated for the country groupings considered. In the 38 African countries, life expectancy at birth is estimated at 47 years in 1995-2000, 5.7 years lower than it would have been in the absence of AIDS. Life expectancy is expected to decline in 2000-2005 before resuming an upward trend, but reaching only 51.3 years by 2020-2025. In the absence of AIDS, life expectancy at birth would reach 62.1 years in 2020-2025, 10.8 years higher than life expectancy with AIDS (table 3 and annex tables A.3 and A.4). The effect of AIDS is more marked in the seven countries with adult HIV prevalence above 20 per cent. Life expectancy in those countries is estimated at 50.2 years in 1995-2000, about 12 years lower than it would have been in the absence of AIDS. By 2020-2025, the difference in life expectancy with and without AIDS is projected to reach 28.6 years. Among the seven countries with the highest prevalence, Botswana, Namibia, Swaziland and Zimbabwe are affected the most.
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Links Solving AIDS Infant Mortality

Infant mortality has increased because of AIDS
U.S. Department of Commerce, 2004 (The AIDS Pandemic in the 21st Century, Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Agency for International Development, Bureau for Global health Office of HIV/AIDS, March, http://www.census.gov/ipc/prod/wp02/wp02.pdf, p. 92) In Some Sub-Saharan African Countries, Infant Mortality Rates Are Now Higher Than They Were in 1993 AIDS mortality has reversed the declines in infant mortality rates that occurred during the 1980s and early 1990s. Over 30 percent of all children born to HIV-infected mothers in Sub-Saharan Africa are likely to be HIV positive, either through the birth process or due to breastfeeding. The relative impact of AIDS on infant mortality is likely to depend on both the levels of HIV prevalence in the population and the infant mortality rate from other causes. In 1990,4 the infant mortality rate in Zimbabwe was 52 infant deaths per 1,000 live births; in 2002 it is 66. In South Africa, the infant mortality rate in 1990 was 51 infant deaths per 1,000; in 2002 it is 60. Without AIDS, infant mortality in Zimbabwe and South Africa would likely have been 35 infant deaths per 1,000 and 39, respectively (Figure 14). In western and central Africa, where epidemics are generally less severe, infant mortality rates are still higher than they would have been without AIDS. The increase ranges from less than 1 percent in Mali to about 13 percent in Cte dIvoire and Rwanda. In countries most affected by AIDS in Latin America, the Caribbean, and Asia, infant mortality rates are also higher than they would have been without AIDS. In Latin America and the Caribbean, infant mortality rates are 2 percent to 6 percent higher. In Asia, infant mortality is less than 1 percent higher in Thailand and 4 percent higher in Cambodia.
AIDS is the leading cause of infant mortality

U.S. Department of Commerce, 2004 (The AIDS Pandemic in the 21st Century, Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Agency for International Development, Bureau for Global health Office of HIV/AIDS, March, http://www.census.gov/ipc/prod/wp02/wp02.pdf, p. 93) In Five Countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, More Infants Are Likely to Die From AIDS in 2010 Than From All Other Causes In Botswana, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe, twice as many infants are likely to die from AIDS in 2010 as from all other causes; in South Africa and Namibia, more infants are likely to die from AIDS than from all other causes. In 46 of the 51 countries examined, overall infant mortality rates are projected to decline between 2002 and 2010. However, in 43 of these 46 countries, infant mortality due to AIDS is projected to increase over the same period, offsetting the greater drop that would otherwise have been achieved. Moreover, in the five countries with projected overall increases, the entire change can be attributed to increases in AIDS mortality among infants. Without the effect of AIDS, infant mortality would have been projected to decline in these countries. (Figures 14 and 15).
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Links Solving AIDS Under-5 Mortality

80% of under-5 mortality is caused by AIDS
U.S. Department of Commerce, 2004 (The AIDS Pandemic in the 21st Century, Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Agency for International Development, Bureau for Global health Office of HIV/AIDS, March, http://www.census.gov/ipc/prod/wp02/wp02.pdf, p. 95) In the Absence of Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission, Under-5 Mortality Rates in 2010 Are Projected to Be Much Higher With AIDS Than They Would Have Been Without AIDS In Botswana, where under-5 mortality rates in 2010 may have been below 30 deaths per 1,000 live births without AIDS, over 120 children per 1,000 live births born are likely to die before their fifth birthday in 2010. Of that total, over 80 percent are likely to be due to AIDS. In many of the countries in southern Africa, over 50 percent of under-5 deaths are likely to be due to AIDS. In Malawi and Zambia, where under-5 mortality rates due to other causes are already high, AIDS mortality is likely to increase those rates by 30 percent or more (Figure 17). In Trinidad and Tobago, 40 percent of under-5 deaths are likely to be due to AIDS. In a number of other countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, one-third of under-5 deaths are likely to be due to AIDS. In Burma, Cambodia, and Thailand, under-5 mortality rates are likely to be 1 percent to 6 percent higher with AIDS mortality than they would have been without AIDS.
80% of under-5 mortality is caused by AIDS

U.S. Department of Commerce, 2004 (The AIDS Pandemic in the 21st Century, Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Agency for International Development, Bureau for Global health Office of HIV/AIDS, March, http://www.census.gov/ipc/prod/wp02/wp02.pdf, p. 97) At the Beginning of the 21st Century, AIDS Is the Number One Cause of Death in Africa and Is Number Four Globally5 Just 20 years ago when AIDS first appeared, few would have predicted the current state of the pandemic, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. That over 30 percent of adults would be living with HIV/AIDS in any country was unthinkable. Yet, this is the current situation in four countries. In seven Sub-Saharan African countries, at least one out of five adults is living with HIV/AIDS and in an additional five Sub-Saharan African countries, one out of ten adults is HIV positive (UNAIDS/WHO, 2002). Many individuals and governments have difficulty grasping the reality of these high prevalence levels, and the resulting AIDS mortality is difficult to comprehend. The magnitude of the current epidemic in HIV infection and the low likelihood of an effective vaccine or even widespread availability of therapeutic medication strongly suggest that many more millions of individuals are likely to die of AIDS over the next decade than have over the past two decades. Many of the southern African countries are only beginning to see the impact of these high levels of HIV prevalence. Thailand, Senegal, and Uganda are notable success stories. In Thailand and Uganda, concerted efforts at all levels of civil society have turned around increasing HIV prevalence rates. In Senegal, programs put into place early in the epidemic have kept HIV prevalence rates low. These successes can be repeated but doing so would take time. Hence, the current burden of disease, death, and orphanhood is likely to be a problem in many countries of Sub-Saharan Africa for the foreseeable future.
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Links Solving AIDS Crude Death Rates/Mortality

AIDS will be the largest contributor to crude death rates in sub-Saharan Africa
United Nations Population Division, 2004 (The Impact of AIDS, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/AIDSimpact/5_CHAP_II.pdf) HIV/AIDS is having effects on the crude death rate (the annual number of deaths per thousand population) similar to those on the life expectancy at birth (table 3 and annex tables A.5 and A.6). In some cases, death rates that were projected to decline in the absence of HIV/AIDS will instead rise. For instance, in the absence of AIDS, the crude death rate for the 38 African countries considered was expected to decline from 13.6 deaths per 1,000 persons in 1995-2000 to 8.5 deaths per 1,000 in 2020-2025. AIDS will cause the crude death rate to increase from 16.8 deaths per 1,000 in 1995-2000 to 17.5 deaths per 1,000 in 2000-2005 before declining to 13.6 deaths per 1,000 in 2020-2025. The ratio of the crude death rate according to the projections with AIDS and that yielded by the projections without AIDS will rise over time, and by 2020-2025 AIDS will be responsible for a 61.4 per cent increase in the crude death rate.
AIDS has increased crude death rates by 500 percent

U.S. Department of Commerce, 2004 (The AIDS Pandemic in the 21st Century, Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Agency for International Development, Bureau for Global health Office of HIV/AIDS, March, http://www.census.gov/ipc/prod/wp02/wp02.pdf, p. 90) The Most Direct Impact of AIDS Is the Increase in the Number of Deaths in Affected Populations Crude death rates, the number of people dying per 1,000 population, have already been affected by AIDS. In Africa, HIV epidemics have had their greatest impact in the eastern and the southern regions. Adult HIV prevalence is 20 percent or higher in seven countries and 10 percent to 20 percent in an additional five countries. In many of these countries, reports indicate the presence of the HIV virus since the early 1980s. As a result of these high levels of HIV infection over several years, estimated crude death rates including AIDS mortality are greater by 50 percent to 500 percent in eastern and southern Africa over what they would have been without AIDS.
AIDS causes an increase in crude death rates

U.S. Department of Commerce, 2004 (The AIDS Pandemic in the 21st Century, Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Agency for International Development, Bureau for Global health Office of HIV/AIDS, March, http://www.census.gov/ipc/prod/wp02/wp02.pdf, p. 91) In Many Sub-Saharan African Countries, Crude Death Rates Are Projected To Be Higher in 2010 Than in 2002, Even Though Mortality Due to Non-AIDS Causes Is Likely to Decline In Botswana, the crude death rate is likely to increase from 29 deaths per 1,000 population in 2002 to 43 in 2010 (Tables 1 and 2). In South Africa, the crude death rate is likely to increase from 17 deaths per 1,000 population to 30; in Zimbabwe, from just under 21 to over 27. In the absence of the AIDS pandemic, crude death rates in 2010 for these three countries that are now projected to range from 27 deaths per 1,000 population to 43 would have ranged, instead, from 4 to 7 (Figure 13). In Latin America and the Caribbean, Honduras and Guyana are likely to see crude death rates in 2010 twice as high as they would have been without AIDS. In Asia, crude death rates in 2010 are projected to be somewhat higher with AIDS than they would have been without AIDS.
HIV influences mortality rates

U.S. Department of Commerce, 2004 (The AIDS Pandemic in the 21st Century, Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Agency for International Development, Bureau for Global health Office of HIV/AIDS, March, http://www.census.gov/ipc/prod/wp02/wp02.pdf, p. 81) Mortality Patterns Are Driven by HIV Prevalence Patterns Median survival time with HIV/AIDS is estimated to be around 10 years. In South Africa, by 2020, death rates for adults at ages 20-45 are likely to be much higher than they would have been without AIDS. Among those under age 60, mortality for women is projected to peak during the ages of 30-34, earlier than the peak projected for men: 40-44 years (Figure 5). Fast Track 2007
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Links Solving AIDS Kenya Specific

AIDS will halt Kenyas population growth
Africa News, May 28, 1999 Meanwhile, Harold Heckman, World Bank country director, warned that HIV/AIDS infections threatened to bring down Kenyas population growth to below two percent.
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Links Solving Hunger/Malnutrition

Hunger and malnutrition increase mortality rates
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2002 (The State of Food Insecurity in the World: 2002, Economic and Social Department, http://www.fao.org/docrep/005/y7352e/y7352e03.htm#TopOfPage) Millions of people, including 6 million children under the age of five, die each year as a result of hunger. Of these millions, relatively few are the victims of famines that attract headlines, video crews and emergency aid. Far more die unnoticed, killed by the effects of chronic hunger and malnutrition, a "covert famine" that stunts their development, saps their strength and cripples their immune systems. Where prevalence of hunger is high, mortality rates for infants and children under five are also high, and life expectancy is low (see map and graphs). In the worst affected countries, a newborn child can look forward to an average of barely 38 years of healthy life (compared to over 70 years of life in "full health" in 24 wealthy nations). One in seven children born in the countries where hunger is most common will die before reaching the age of five. Not all of these shortened lives can be attributed to the effects of hunger, of course. Many other factors combine with hunger and malnutrition to sentence tens of millions of people to an early death. The HIV/AIDS pandemic, which is ravaging many of the same countries where hunger is most widespread, has reduced average life expectancy across all of sub-Saharan Africa by nearly five years for women and 2.5 years for men. Even after compensating for the impact of HIV/AIDS and other factors, however, the correlation between chronic hunger and higher mortality rates remains striking. Numerous studies suggest that it is far from coincidental. Since the early 1990s, a series of analyses have confirmed that between 50 and 60 per cent of all childhood deaths in the developing world are caused either directly or indirectly by hunger and malnutrition. Relatively few of those deaths are the result of starvation. Most are caused by a persistent lack of adequate food intake and essential nutrients that leaves children weak, underweight and vulnerable. As might be expected, the vast majority of the 153 million underweight children under five in the developing world are concentrated in countries where the prevalence of undernourishment is high. Even mild-to-moderate malnutrition greatly increases the risk of children dying from common childhood diseases. Overall, analysis shows that the risk of death is 2.5 times higher for children with only mild malnutrition than it is for children who are adequately nourished. And the risk increases sharply along with the severity of mal nutrition (as measured by their weight-to-age ratio). The risk of death is 4.6 times higher for children suffering from moderate malnutrition and 8.4 times higher for the severely malnourished.
Malnutrition increases the risk and fatality of other diseases

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2002 (The State of Food Insecurity in the World: 2002, Economic and Social Department, http://www.fao.org/docrep/005/y7352e/y7352e03.htm#TopOfPage) Infectious diseases are the immediate cause of death for most of the 11 million children under the age of five who die each year in the developing world. But the risk of dying from those diseases is far greater for children who are hungry and malnourished. The four biggest killers of children are diarrhoea, acute respiratory illness, malaria and measles. Taken together, these four diseases account for almost half of all deaths among children under the age of five. Analysis of data from hospitals and villages shows that all four of these diseases are far more deadly to children who are stunted or underweight. In the case of diarrhoea, numerous studies show that the risk of death is as much as nine times higher for children, who are significantly underweight, the most common indicator of chronic undernutrition. Similarly, underweight children are two to three times more likely to die of malaria and acute respiratory infections, including pneumonia, than well-nourished children. Lack of dietary diversity and essential minerals and vitamins also contributes to increased child and adult mortality. Iron deficiency anaemia greatly increases the risk of death from malaria, and vitamin A deficiency impairs the immune system, increasing the annual death toll from measles and other diseases by an estimated 1.3-2.5 million children.
Eliminating hunger and malnutrition would save million of lives

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2002 (The State of Food Insecurity in the World: 2002, Economic and Social Department, http://www.fao.org/docrep/005/y7352e/y7352e03.htm#TopOfPage) The weight of evidence clearly argues that eliminating hunger and malnutrition could save millions of lives each year. That conclusion has been confirmed by a study that examined factors that had helped reduce child mortality during the 1990s. Topping the list were the decline in the proportion of children who were malnourished and lacking access to adequate water, sanitation and housing. Fast Track 2007
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Hunger kills hundreds of millions of people sub-Saharan Africa is hit the hardest
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2002 (The State of Food Insecurity in the World: 2002, Economic and Social Department, http://www.fao.org/docrep/005/y7352e/y7352e03.htm#TopOfPage) FAO's latest estimates of the number of undernourished people confirm an alarming trend - progress in reducing hunger in the developing world has slowed to a crawl and in most regions the number of undernourished people is actually growing. Worldwide, the latest estimates indicate that 840 million people were undernourished in 1998-2000. This figure includes 11 million in the industrialized countries, 30 million in countries in transition and 799 million in the developing world. The latest figure of 799 million for the developing countries represents a decrease of just 20 million since 1990-92, the benchmark period used at the World Food Summit (WFS). This means that the average annual decrease since the Summit has been only 2.5 million, far below the level required to reach the WFS goal of halving the number of under nourished people by 2015. It also means that progress would now have to be accelerated to 24 million per year, almost 10 times the current pace, in order to reach that goal. Closer examination reveals that the situation in most of the developing world is even bleaker than it appears at first glance. The marginal global gains are the result of rapid progress in a few large countries. China alone has reduced the number of undernourished people by 74 million since 1990-92. Indonesia, Viet Nam, Thailand, Nigeria, Ghana and Peru have all achieved reductions of more than 3 million, helping to offset an increase of 96 million in 47 countries where progress has stalled. But if China and these six countries are set aside, the number of undernourished people in the rest of the developing world has increased by over 80 million since the WFS benchmark period. When the number of undernourished is considered as a proportion of a country's total population, the picture is somewhat more encouraging. In the majority of developing countries, the proportion has actually decreased since the WFS. In 26 of the 61 developing countries that achieved a proportional decrease in undernourishment, however, the absolute number of undernourished people has continued to rise as a result of rapid population growth. One of those 26 countries is India, where the ranks of the undernourished have swollen by 18 million, despite the fact that the proportion fell from 25 to 24 percent. Sub-Saharan Africa continues to have the highest prevalence of under nourishment and also has the largest increase in the number of undernourished people. But the situation in Africa is not uniformly grim. Most of the increase took place in Central Africa, driven by the collapse into chronic warfare of a single country, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where the number of undernourished people has tripled. West Africa, with Southeast Asia and South America, has reduced significantly both the prevalence and the number of undernourished people. But prospects are troubling for Central America, the Near East and East Asia (excluding China), where both of these elements have increased.
The problems cuased by hunger are equivalent to killing the entire population of a country larger than the US
World Food Programme, 2007 (http://www.wfp.org/aboutwfp/introduction/hunger_what.asp?section=1&sub_section=1) According to the 2004 FAO Food Insecurity Report, childhood and maternal undernutrition cost an estimated 220 million DALYs in developing countries. When other nutrition-related risk factors are taken into account, the toll rises to 340 million DALYs -equivalent to having a disaster kill or disable the entire population of a country larger than the United States.
Hunger and malnutrition kill more than all of the major disease combined
World Food Programme, 2007 (http://www.wfp.org/aboutwfp/introduction/hunger_what.asp?section=1&sub_section=1) Hunger and malnutrition are still the number one risks to health worldwide. In the final quarter of the 20th century, humanity was winning the war on its oldest enemy. From 1970-1997, the number of hungry people dropped from 959 million to 791 million -mainly the result of dramatic progress in reducing the number of undernourished in China and India. In the second half of the 1990s, however, the number of chronically hungry in developing countries started to increase at a rate of almost four million per year. By 2001-2003, the total number of undernourished people worldwide had risen to 854 million: 820 million in developing countries, 25 million in countries in transition and nine million in industrialised countries. Today, one in nearly seven people do not get enough food to be healthy and lead an active life, making hunger and malnutrition the number one risk to health worldwide -- greater than AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis combined.
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Stopping hunger would add another person to the population every five seconds
World Food Programme, 2007 (http://www.wfp.org/aboutwfp/introduction/hunger_what.asp?section=1&sub_section=1) Hunger also weakens the immune system. Deprived of the right nutrition, hungry children are especially vulnerable and become too weak to fight off disease and may die from common infections like measles and diarrhoea. Each year, almost 11 million children die before reaching the age of five; malnutrition is associated with 54 percent of these deaths, claiming one child's life every five seconds.
Millions die every year because of hunger and hunger-related diseases

World Food Programme, 2007 (http://www.wfp.org/aboutwfp/introduction/hunger_who.asp?section=1&sub_section=1) Ten million people die every year of hunger and hunger-related diseases. Only eight percent are the victims of high-profile earthquakes, floods, droughts and wars. The rest are often forgotten. Who are they? Ask about the hungry and most people will talk about the victims of Ethiopia's famine in 1984-85, homeless families marooned by Bangladeshi floods or refugees fleeing war in Darfur, Sudan. They probably won't know that in total there are 820 million hungry people in developing countries who don't make the headlines -- more than the combined populations of the United States, Canada and the European Union. The scales are tipped against the vast majority of the world's hungry from birth. Over 20 million low birthweight (LBW) babies are born in developing countries every year. Even if they survive infancy, LBW babies face stunted physical and cognitive growth in childhood. As adults, this translates into reduced work capacity and earnings.
Hunger means women die during childbirth, greatly decreasing population

World Food Programme, 2007 (http://www.wfp.org/aboutwfp/introduction/hunger_who.asp?section=1&sub_section=1) Women are the world's primary food producers, yet cultural traditions and social structures often mean women are much more affected by hunger and poverty than men. While around 25 percent of men in developing countries suffer from anaemia caused by an iron deficiency, 45 percent of women are affected. Lack of iron means 300 women die during childbirth every day. As a result, women, in particular, expectant and nursing mothers, often need special or increased intake of food. Maternal stunting and underweight are also among the most prevalent causes of giving birth to a low birthweight child.
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Links Solving Famine

Famine reduces fertility. Carson, editor, 1990
(Population and Disease, p. 15 (PDAF1393)) During disasters such as famine, wars and epidemics, declines in fertility would seem to be the rule. There is ample evidence of a decline in conceptions during times of high grain prices in Europe and Asia, during times of war and epidemics in Europe and during famine in Africa and Bangledesh.
Famine crushes fertility

Freedman, University of Michigan sociologist, 1998 (ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF POLITICS & SOCIAL SCIENCE, p. 21 (PDAF1394) When famine conditions prevail, conception rates and birth rates plummet. In Bangladesh, birth rates fell by about a third between 1974 and 1975, and the decline was nearly the same at every age. The most likely causes are severe food deprivation, that affects reproductive physiology, both male and female, and decreased coital frequency, whether induced biologically or resulting from increased stress or separation.
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Links Solving Famine AT: Famines increase fertility

Famines reduce fertility, easing resource pressures that will benefit future generations
Anfra Ferro-Luzzi and Francesco Branca, National Institute of Nutrition (POPULATION AND POVERTY IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD, 1998, pp. 67-8) It has to be noted though that this reduction in fertility is somewhat offset by a subsequent rebound that takes fertility above the normal level. This rebound is explained by the fact that the post-famine population contains an unusually high proportion of women susceptible to conception, for a couple of reasons. First, excessive infant mortality during famine leaves an unusually high proportion of women susceptible to conception, for a couple of reasons. Secondly, the immediate decline in the rate of conception following the onset of famine raises the proportion of non-pregnant women above the normal level in the post-famine period. It has been estimated, however, that the rebound does not completely offset the initial decline in fertility, so that a net depressive effect still remains. To that extent, famine eases the pressure on resources, to the benefit of future generations.
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Links Solving Conflict

Civil war prevents overshoot.
Brown, 1999 (Lester, Beyond Malthus, Nineteen Dimensions of the Population Challenge, Worldwatch, pp. 27-28, (PDAF1367)) The U.N.s projections are mainly demographic, based on historical data on fertility, mortality, and average life span and on the likely course of current social and political phenomena such as refugee movements, wars, and the spread of AIDS. No effort was made, however, to incorporate factors affecting natural carrying capacities, such as the adequacy of water supplies or cropland. Indeed, because the projections are based exclusively on demographic assumptions and do not take into account the environmental and social limits to carrying capacity, they should be viewed as a first pass rather than the final word on estimates of future population. In this sense, the projections may be misleading, because they give the impression that projected population increases are likely, when in reality ecological and social life-support systems may collapse long before they materialize. To cite a single example: Yemens projected growth during the next 50 years from 18 million to 59 million people seems unlikely for the desert nation, which already has only .03 hectares of grainland per person and faces severe water shortages and dismal socioeconomic conditions. The 19 dimensions analyzed in this book help to put the U.N. numbers in perspective by sketching some of the parameters ranging from disease and conflict outbreaks to food and water shortages that could reduce population growth in some countries below the levels projected. By raising mortality levels, these constraints can drive down the very population growth rates that first bred the constraints.
Armed conflict reduces population growth.

United Nations, 2005 (World Population Prospects: 2004 Revision, http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WPP2004/2004ighlights_finalrevised.pdf) Africa, unlike other major areas, has been experiencing declining life expectancy since the late 1980s. While this trend is due in large part to the HIV/AIDS epidemic, other factors have also played a role, including armed conflict, economic stagnation, and resurgent infectious diseases such as tuberculosis and malaria. The recent negative trends in Africa have set back progress in reducing mortality by at least 25 years.
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Linearity
Each person inflicts more damage
Brown, West Virginia University professor of physiology PhD, 2006 (Paul, Notes from a Dying Planet, 2004-2006: One Scientist's Search for Solutions p. 141) The really bad news is that the two younger populations increase in size for about 30 years because major portions of their populations are younger than the child-bearing age of 25 at the time they all shift to the one-child rule. This is disastrous because the more people there are during this period, the more damage they do to their environment, and the fewer resources will be left for the survivors, if any, one or two centuries from now. For every person, for every year that a population remains unsustainable, they inflict more damage.
Environmental degradation is multiplied by every additional person

Birdsall, InterAmerican Development Bank, 1994 (Nancy, Population and Devlopment: New Debates, Old Conclusions, Ed. Robert Cassen, pp, 258) The environmental concern about rapid population growth is straightforward. For given levels of consumption, more people put more stress on natural resources, including both sources (forests, water) and sinks (the air which receives pollution). In the absence of prices that reflect the true scarcity value of these sources and sinks, there is likely to be excessive consumption of these "goods" from society's point of view. Excessive consumption is multiplied the more people there are.
Each additional person requires services that contribute to environmental and economic problems
Ehrlich, Stanford University professor of biology, 1986 (Paul, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist, p. 15) Each additional person, on average, must be cared for by using lower quality resources that must be transported further, and by food grown on more marginal land. Supplying the additional energy needed for these tasks creates both economic and environmental problems.
More people equals more environmental stress

Population Journal, 1991 (January/February, p. 221) Simply put, the more people inhabiting our planet, the greater the stress on its life-sustaining environment and finite resources, and the harder it becomes for local and national officials to provide their citizens with even the most basic services housing, jobs, food, education, health care, and so on.
The more people, the more pollution

Ehrlich, Stanford University professor of biology, 1990 (Paul, The Population Explosion, p. 149) The more people there are in an area, all else being equal, the more effort they will have to expand to avoid various types of pollution. Once a certain threshold is passed, each additional person added will create disproportionately more. The ores mined to supply the new person will, on average, be of lower grade and have to be hauled farther.
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Linearity
Reducing population growth slows environmental pressure
Meadows, Dartmouth systems analyst and adjunct professor of Environmental Studies, 2004 (Donella, Limits to Gorwth: The 30 Year Update, p. 239-240) Still, reduction in the peak population has positive effects. Because of the slower population growth, consumer goods per capita, food per capita, and life expectancy are all higher than in Scenario 2. At the population peaks in 2040, per capita consumer goods output is 10 percent higher, per capita food availability is 20 percent higher, and life expectancy is almost 10 percent greater than in Scenario 2. This is because less investment is needed to supply the consumption and service needs of a smaller population, so more investment is available to fuel the growth of industrial capital. As a result, industrial output grows faster and higher than it did in Scenario 2. By the year 2040 industrial output per capita has grown to twice its level in the year 2000. The model population is significantly richer than at the start of the century, and the period from
2010 to 2030 could be termed a "golden era," with relatively high human welfare for a large population
The greater the number of people, the greater the risk of crossing the environmental threshold
Engleman, Population Committee Chair, 1992 (Robert, Population and the Environment, p. 5) Growth in population, especially rapid growth, tends to elevate environmental risk. No one knows precisely what level of environmental stress will threaten human welfare. As population continues to grow, however, so do these stresses eased temporarily by economic swings or improvements in technology. Over the long term, the risk of crossing environmental thresholds can only grow in human numbers.
Each additional person makes the environment worse

Green, 2002 (Cynthia, Johns Hopkins Population Information Program, Population Reports, May, p. 13) How does population growth endanger the environment? -Each additional person adds an increment to the demand on the environment, making the situation a little worse; -Each persons demand is multiplied to varying degrees by the persons affluence and by the environmental impact of technologies involved in production and consumption.
Each additional person pollutes more and destroys Earths life support systems
Suzuki, British Columbia professor of ecology, 1991 (David, Its a Matter of Survival, p. 99) Those are the concerns that grow daily with every new person added to our numbers: too many people equal too much pollution, too much destruction of the natural habitat and the Earths life support systems; the fear is that the rise will happen so fast and be so steep that the worlds resources will quickly run out.
Population growth must continue to decrease to offset increased resource consumption

Hugh, 2006 (Edward, Rethinking the Demographic Transition, http://www.edwardhugh.net/rethinking_the_demographic_.pdf) The latter falls, according to the medium projection, to almost zero in the second half of the twenty-first century, leaving economic growth alone to exert ever-increasing pressure on the environment. It is of course possible that the economy can so readjust itself that the additional pressures it exerts are not proportional to its growth. Alternatively, the maximum stable population may well be one that is slowly declining so as to offset continued rises in per capita income.
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Morality
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Morality Ecological Sustainability

The possibility of an overpopulation crisis makes ecological sustainability a moral question that precedes all others.
Elliott, University of Florida Emeritus Philosophy, 1997 (Herschel, A General Statement of the Tragedy of the Commons, February 26, http://www.dieoff.org/page121.htm) Correct ethical behavior can no longer be deduced from a set of principles, rights, and obligations which are invariant in time and universal in application. Instead, ethical behavior must be relative to its most important goal -- to protect and sustain the Earth's diverse yet mutually supporting system of living things. Thereafter the secondary goal of ethics may be addressed, namely, to maximize the quality of human life. The system-dependent nature of moral behavior entails decisive changes in ethical theory or in the decisions that affect the do's and don't's of daily life. Five are worthy of emphasizing. First, people can no longer assume that moral acts are autonomous, that they are simple consequences of a good will. People can no longer make believe that moral behavior takes place in an infinite domain of thought in which the members of the moral community have duties and obligations which are timeless, necessary, and never constrained by material shortage. Instead moral behavior is complex. Under the present almost universal conditions of crowding, most human acts pull with them a tangled skein of benefit and harm. Simple human acts, acts that are benign or even morally necessary when practiced on a small or limited scale, become tragic, even disastrous, when those same types of act are practiced on a large scale or by everyone. In many cases the morality of as act is a function of the number of people doing that kind of act. Indeed an individual's behavior can no longer be judged to be moral merely because its motive conforms to unchanging ideals and principles. This traditional subjective criterion for assessing moral behavior must be discarded because it is often irrelevant and even counterproductive.
Ecological conservation is the highest moral duty because it is a precondition for human life
Elliott, University of Florida Emeritus Philosophy, 1997 (Herschel, A General Statement of the Tragedy of the Commons, February 26, http://www.dieoff.org/page121.htm) The second is a corollary of the first. Most people in the Western world hold a serious moral misconception which must be discarded. Having been brought up or educated under the formative influence of a monotheistic religion, they commonly believe, without question, examination, or discussion, that the ideals and principles of moral behavior can be justified non-empirically, that is by reason or a priori thought. As a result, moral claims are treated as if they were like the conclusion of geometric proof whose truth is a matter of a logical necessity that empirical data cannot refute. However, the tragedy of the commons shows the absurdity of this claim. Because most human rights, laws, and freedoms are contingent on the ability of the Earth's ecosystems to support them, most cannot be universal, necessary, and unconditional. And no a priori arguments -- no appeals to reason, to conscience, to God's Word, or to the logic of moral language -- can make them so. Indeed none of the human-centered obligations of a priori ethical theories can curb the inbuilt, positive feedback mechanisms which are now causing the ever greater impoverishment of the world's ecosystems. And none can be adjusted to meet the holistic needs of the Earth's evolving biosystem. These are the inherent defects which prove the belief must be abandoned that a priori reasoning can determine, for all time, the ideals and principles of ethics as well as the nature of justice itself.
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Morality Allowing Overshoot

Allowing overshoot is the most immoral action.
Hardin, Unversity of Chicago B.S. Zoology, Stanford University, Ph.D. Microbiology, 2001 (James, Population and Environment, Spring) When a country is overpopulated when its population is greater than the carrying capacity of its land, whatever standard of living is used in reaching a judgment saving lives today by direct gifts of food ensures that more lives will be lost tomorrow because of the increased environmental destruction made possible by the encouragement of population growth. The time-blind ideal, Human life is sacred, is counterproductive. The fashionable saying , Life is Sacred, is interpreted as meaning that the preservation of the life of each and every human being is a prime imperative, overriding all other considerations. Most people regard the saving of the lives of strangers at a great distance as a morally noble by-product of scientific progress. But when time is taken into consideration it can be shown that such a noble act is counterproductive for its implicit aim which, surely is to minimize the total amount of human suffering over time. The admirable impulses of the traditional moralist must be confronted with the ecologistss time-shackled question, And then what?
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Morality Future Generations

We have a moral obligation to future generations.
Struba, Former American Civil Liberties Union National Director, 1980 (James, Jounral of Philosophy, p. 424 At first glance the welfare rights of future generations apper to be on pa par with the welfare rights of distant peoples. For, assuming that there will be future generations, then, they, like generations presently existing, will have their basic needs that must be satisfied. And, just as we are now able to take action to provide for the basic needs of distant peoples, so likewise we are no able to take action to provide for the basic needs of future generations (e.g. through capital investment and the conservation of resources). Consequently, it would seem that there are just as good grounds for providing for the basic needs of future generations as there are for providing for the basic needs of distant peoples.
Protection of future generations is a moral imperative.

Meller, Professor of philosophy, 1982 (Robert, The Futurist, December, p. 59) What we bequeath to the future therefore, is ourselves, and our responsibility to future generations is identical with our responsibility to ourselves. On this ultimate act rests the meaning of our lives here and now. We are much more than individuals. We are part of the future. Nothing else means so much.
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Impacts
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Impacts Die-off/Extinction
Overpopulation will push us over Earths carrying capacity, resulting in environmental degradation and massive die-off
Abernethy, Anthropology and Economics, PhD. 1993 (Virginia, Population Politics: The Choices That Shape Our Future, pp. 245-246) The carrying capacity is the number of individuals that an area can support without sustaining damage. Carrying capacity is exceeded if so many individuals use an area that their activities cause deterioration in the very systems that support them. Exceeding the carrying capacity sometimes harms an environment so severely that the new number who can be supported is smaller than the original equilibrium population. The carrying capacity would then have declined, perhaps permanently. Any number of elements or systems can be hurt by overuse. A field can be grazed down until the root systems of grasses are damaged; or so much game can be hunted off that food species are effectively extirpated. Now, the foragers that ate the grass or the predators that killed the game have lost a food source. In effect, the carrying capacity has been exceeded so that the population dependent on the area's productive systems is worse off than it was originally. Animal populations that destroy their niche come and go. If not too many .examples come to mind, it is because they rather quickly go. The miniature ponies on Assateague Island illustrate a point on the continuum. They would overgraze their island, seriously depleting their future food supply, except for the fact that a portion of each year's colt crop is removed. Without human intervention (there are no predators and apparently no reservoir of infectious disease), the pony population would explode. Probably it happened in the past. Their very small size today is a vestigial effect of starvation, when only the tiniest, for whom the least blades of grass were lifesaving, survived. A population cannot be stable if, by its size or behavior, it destroys the very life-support systems on which it depends. Sooner or later, degradation of the environment is felt in inadequacies of the food or water supply, shelter, or havens where individuals can be safe and the young can develop. Sustainability requires human or animal populations to stay at or below the carrying capacity of their physical environment.
We must prevent overpopulation or we all die

Brown, West Virginia University professor of physiology PhD, 2006 (Paul, Notes From a Dying Planet, p. 3-4) Everyone I know is uneasy about this space ship we live on. We have good reason to be edgy. Scientists around the world are warning us of growing dangers to our survival. We only have about 150-250 years left in which to fix them. We, Homo sapiens, the people of this world, must make some major changes in our lives in the next 5-10 years, starting this year, or we're toast. The threats we face stem from overpopulation and environmental degradation. The resulting climate change and mass extinctions are leading to ecological collapse, in which the once-robust tapestry of interrelationships among living creatures, climate, and our physical environment has been weakened and is starring to unravel. Clinical indicators of our planet's serious illness are illustrated in the graph. I've adjusted the vertical scales for population, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, temperature, and extinction of species per ear so they all have a common minimum and maximum All the minimal occurred tens of thousands of years BC, and all the maxima are now. The state of the Earth today is unique. Were consuming the worlds resources faster than they can be restored. The world's population is now doubling in less than fifty years. round mid-century, the world's population is expected to level off at eight to twelve billion people. The lower number is far too high: population must start to decline before 2050 if we are to survive. The upper limit, to put it simply, will never be reached because we would all die first.
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Impacts Laundry List

Sloing population growth critical to avoid all impacts
Brown, West Virginia University professor of physiology PhD, 2006 (Paul, Notes from a Dying Planet, 2004-2006: One Scientist's Search for Solutions p. 133) All of our worst problemsenvironmental degradation, resource depletion, even climate change and mass extinctionscan be eliminated or alleviated, but only if we reduce our population size enough, fast enough. Population pressure has caused wars, destroyed great civilizations, and driven brutal colonization, genocide, and exploitation.
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Impacts Conflicts/War
Population growth causes resource conflicts and war
Brown, Worldwatch Institute President, 2006 (Lester, Plan B 2.0 Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civlization in Trouble, Earth Policy Institute, p. 26) As land and water become scarce, we can expect mounting social tensions within societies, particularly between those who are poor and dispossessed and those who are wealthy, as well as among ethnic and religious groups, as competition for these vital resources intensifies. Population growth brings with it a steady shrinkage of life-supporting resources per person. That decline, which is threatening to drop the living standards of more and more people below survival level, could lead to unmanageable social tensions that will translate into broad-based conflicts.
Population growth has caused many armed conflicts

Brown, Worldwatch Institute President, 1999 (Lester, Beyond Malthus: Nineteen Dimensions of the Population Challenge, p. 98) Population growth has been implicated as an aggravating force in many modern conflicts, ranging from the "soccer war" in central America in 1969 to present- day battles in central Africa. In the 1980s, population induced land scarcity in Bangladesh led to conflicts that drove more than 10 million refugees into adjacent states. These land-hungry Bengalis in turn exacerbated land shortages in the Indian stares-leading to ongoing violent conflict.
Population growth increases the risk of war by generating domestic political crisises
Goldstone, professor of public policy, 2002 (Jack, Population and Security: How Demographic change Can Lead to Violent Conflict, Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 56, Fall, p. 123) Most population changes do not directly increase the risks of international wars between domestically stable states; however, because many international wars have their origins in domestic conflicts (e.g., the Iran/Iraq war growing out of Iran's revolution; international wars in West and Central Africa growing out of the collapses of Liberia, Sierra Leone and Congo/Zaire), in those contexts where population changes produce domestic political crises, the risk of international war is also increased. There is also some evidence that the intensity of war, in terms of casualties, increases in countries with exceptionally large youth cohorts.
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Impacts Racism
Environmental decline in the developing world triggers population movement and a racist response
Homer-Dixon, Assistant Professor at University College, University of Toronto, and Coordinator of the College's Peace and Conflict Studies Program, 2001 (INTERNATIONAL SECURITY, Fall, p. 76-116) As population and environmental stresses grow in developing countries, migration to the developed world is likely to surge. "The image of islands of affluence amidst a sea of poverty is not inaccurate."93 People will seek to move from Latin America to the United States and Canada, from North Africa and the Middle East to Europe, and from South and Southeast Asia to Australia. This migration has already shifted the ethnic balance in many cities and regions of developed countries, and governments are struggling to contain a xenophobic backlash. Such racial strife will undoubtedly become much worse.
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Impacts Environmental Collapse

Overpopulation depletes all environmental resources
Brown, West Virginia University professor of physiology PhD, 2006 (Paul, Notes from a Dying Planet, 2004-2006: One Scientist's Search for Solutions p. 149) Just as water depletion is increasing faster than population increases, population growth will cause a disproportionate increase in the rate of depletion of other natural resources. Worldwide demand for energy is growing much faster than population, not only for development but also just to maintain the status quo in a deteriorating environment. Our vessel has sprung an entropy leak, and we need ever-increasing amounts of fuel for our entropy pumps. Overpopulation has already caused desertification of arable land due to increased erosion, salinity, and overgrazing; massive deforestation; depletion of marine food supplies; and mass extinctions due to loss of habitat, pollution, climate change, and water depletion. Further population growth will accelerate these rates of depletion at a time when increases in these resources will be desperately needed, because these disintegrative processes have now become mutually reinforcing. We have triggered a set of interlocking positive feedback loops in which even zero population growth could no longer halt the runaway processes of environmental degradation
Overshoot will collapse global ecosystems

Meadows, Dartmouth systems analyst and adjunct professor of environmental studies, 2004 (Donella, Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Update, p. 167) On a local scale, overshoot and collapse can be seen in the processes of desertification, mineral or groundwater depletion, poisoning of agricultural soils or forest lands by long-lived toxic wastes, and extinction of species. Abandoned farms, deserted mining towns, and forsaken industrial dumps all testify to the "reality" of this system behavior. On a global scale, overshoot and collapse could mean the breakdown of the great supporting cycles of nature that regulate climate, purify air and water, regenerate biomass, preserve biodiversity, and turn wastes into nutrients. When we first published our results in 1972, the majority of people thought human disruption to natural processes on a global scale was inconceivable. Now it is the subject of newspaper headlines, the focus of scientific meetings, and the object of international negotiations.
Population grows at the heart of global environmental problems

Los Angeles Times, October 12, 1999, p. 1 Population lies at the root of many of the world's most pressing environmental problems, said Carl Pope, executive director of the Sierra Club. Urban air pollution, depleted drinking water, global warming, rain forest destruction and species extinction are among
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the problems that can be linked in part, he says, to too many people sharing resources in an unsustainable way. "As population grows, all these people will eat food, drink water and consume wood products and fossil fuels," Pope said. "So a decline in the population rate is very, very important because we are undergoing a major league collapse of our renewable resources. "How many people can the resources of the planet, and the needs of other species, sustain in reasonable prosperity? I suspect 6 billion is probably already too many, and 6 billion is a lot less than 10 billion," he said.
Population increases cause land pressure, reducing biodiversity

Ramphal, Commission on Global Governance, 1998 (Sir Shridath, Population and Global Security, p. 82) Generally speaking in poor countries, as human numbers rise there is increasing pressure on the land. Farming becomes more and more intensive, fallow periods between crops are shortened or eliminated, and more and more pesticide and fertilizer are applied. The result is early exhaustion of the soil and degradation of the land. Farming is also extended to more fragile areas leading to soil derision or desertification or to forest land, when the result includes loss of trees, or shelter, and of biodiversity.
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Impacts Resource Shortages

Population growth increases material resource consumption
Brown, Worldwatch Institute President, 1999 (Lester, Beyond Malthus: Nineteen Dimensions of the Population Challenge, p. 76) Because people need metal, wood, stone, chemicals, and other materials for their survival and enjoyment, population growth typically spurs increased materials use, which often leads to greater environmental degradation. But the materials impact of population growth depends largely on the lifestyles of the expanding population, and on how efficiently materials are used. Materials tend to be consumed heavily and wastefully in wealthy nations, making growth in human numbers in these countries more environmentally burdensome than the rapid growth in many poor countries.
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Impacts Species Extinction

Population growth causes species extinction
Brown, Worldwatch Institute President, 2006 (Lester, Plan B 2.0 Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civlization in Trouble, Earth Policy Institute, p. 95) Habitat alteration from rising temperatures, chemical pole-non, or the introduction of exotic species can also decimate both plant and animal species. As human population grows, the number of species with which we share the planet shrinks. We cannot separate our fate from that of all life on the earth. If the rich diversity of life that we inherited is continually impoverished, eventually we will be impoverished as wel1.
Species loss threatens planetary survivability and diversity

Brown, Worldwatch Institute President, 2006 (Lester, Plan B 2.0 Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civlization in Trouble, Earth Policy Institute, p. 95) We are now in the early stage of the sixth great extinction. Unlike previous extinction events, which were caused by natural phenomena, this one is of human origin. For the first time in the earth's long history, one species has evolved, if that is the right word, to where it can eradicate much of life. As various life forms disappear, they diminish the services provided by nature, such as pollination, seed dispersal, insect control, and nutrient cycling. This loss of species is weakening the web of life, and if it continues it could tear huge gaps in its fabric, leading to irreversible changes in the earth's ecosystem. Species of all kinds are threatened by habitat destruction, principally through the loss of tropical rainforests. As we burn off the Amazon rainforest, we are in effect burning one of the great repositories of genetic information. Our descendents may one day view the wholesale burning of this genetic library much as we view the burning of the library in Alexandria in 48 BC
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Impacts Climate Change

Population growth triggers a psotive feedback loop, increasing global warming
Brown, West Virginia University professor of physiology PhD, 2006 (Paul, Notes From a Dying Planet, p. 206) As population continues to grow, people are burning more carbon fuels, increasing the rate of human CO2 production, speeding warming. Forests are vanishing due to logging and settlement, decreasing the rate at which CO2 is converted to living matter and oxygen. Consequently, CO2 is building up faster in the air, speeding warming. The warming oceans are speeding up oxygen consumption by algae, lowering oxygen levels to the point where enormous dead zones are developiong in which plankton die, slowing removal of CO2 and replenishment of oxygen. As forests vanish, rainfaill is decreasing and erosion is increasing, producing more desert and decreasing arable land. The forests are being killed faster for a short increase in arable land. As ecospheric heating accelerates the positive feedback loops get worse, and new ones come into play. The negative feedback processes, like photosynthensis, are weakened, further enahncing the effects of positive feedback loops. If left alone these positive feedback processes will kill us. Long before that, they will have reached the point where theres nothing we can do to stop them.
Global warming will cause human extinction

Brown, West Virginia University professor of physiology PhD, 2006 (Paul, Notes From a Dying Planet, p. 202-203) The evidence for global warming is all around us. Most chapters in this book mention news reports of record-breaking heat waves; melting ice caps and glaciers; droughts and famines; violent weather; die-offs, overpopulation and migrations of species; and rising ocean levels. There is no longer any doubt that the principal cause is human combustion of fossil fuels. We're producing CO2 faster than it could be removed from the atmosphere even if we had not reduced the world's photosynthetic capacity through forest destruction. Global warming is caused by a greenhouse effect, in which solar light passes through the atmosphere and that portion that is not reflected warms the surface of the globe. In the recent past, enough of that heat was radiated back into space in the form of infrared (IR) light so the Earth didn't heat up. However, CO, absorbs IR, trapping some of the heat in the atmosphere. It acts just like the glass in a greenhouse, which passes visible light but not IR. That's why CO2 is referred to as a greenhouse gas. Atmospheric CO2 has gone from 280 parts per million (ppm), a level that had remained much the same for the previous 10,000 years, to 360 ppm in 1998. Scientists project that the concentration will reach 560 ppm by 2050, and average global temperature will increase by 3-7F. There's a very real danger that a positive feedback loop will be (or already has been) initial in which rising temperatures will decrease reflectivity due to ice melting; atmospheric water vapor concentration will go up because warmer air can hold more water (and water's a greenhouse gas too); methane will be released from thawing tundra, swamps, and undersea deposits (yes, methane's a greenhouse gas too) because warm water can't hold as much gas as ice or cold water; and CO2 will be released from rocks, water and ice. This will cause global warming to skyrocket far faster than would be caused by our increased CO2 production alone. If that happens, drastic temperature shifts could take place in just a few years. New scientific evidence suggests that just such drastic temperature shifts have occurred in the past. If that were to happen, there would be nothing we could do, and our ecosystem would collapse. We would go with it.
We are on the bronk of uncontrolled, runaway warming

Brown, West Virginia University professor of physiology PhD, 2006 (Paul, Notes From a Dying Planet, p. 208) Our planet is now approaching the stage of runaway global warming that climatologists have feared for decades. We can describe stages of global temperature as: (A) Unperturbed stable state. (B) Perturbed stable state: something forces the temperature away from the operating point, but if the perturbing force is removed, the temperature is brought back to normal by negative feedback. (C) Initial positive feedback stage, where global warming or cooling in itself causes more of the same. In this initial stage of positive feedback, it may be possible with drastic measures to quench the positive feedback by massive human intervention. (D) Runaway global warming or cooling, which we can't stop. We have now reached stage C, possibly stage D
An increase in the death rate is needed to reverse global warming

Brown, West Virginia University professor of physiology PhD, 2006 (Paul, Notes From a Dying Planet, p. 208) The measures needed to reverse global warming take decades. Even with stringent birth control, including widespread sterilizations and abortions, population doesn't decline rapidly unless the death rate increases dramatically. Fast Track 2007
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Impacts Climate Change

Warming must be slowed quickly and abruptly in order to avoid positive feedback loops
Homer-Dixon, political scientist and population researcher, 2006 (Thomas, The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization, p. 165-166) First, the relentless increase in our emissions has astonishing momentum. Slowing down or reversing this increase will be very hard, if not impossible. Even if world output of cheap conventional oil starts to decline, humankind will remain heavily dependent on fossil fuels, especially coal, for much of the coming century. If current trends of economic growth and technological change continue, by 2 moeasily within the lives of our grandchildrenthe world's total economic output will have risen almost tenfold (to more than $600 trillion in today's U.S. dollars), and global energy consumption will have quadrupled (pp 166-7) Scientists don't understand many of the principal feedbacks in the Earth's climate, but they're concerned that positive feedbacks could inexorably drive the climate toward higher temperaturesand even produce a "runaway" greenhouse effect. Events in the Arctic, again, show how this could happen. Open water left behind by melting Arctic ice is much darker and absorbs about 8o percent more solar energy than the ice itself This extra energy makes Arctic waters even warmer, in turn melting more ice and increasing further the amount of open water that can absorb the sun's heata vicious circle that could change the energy balance of the entire Northern Hemisphere. Also, northern boreal forests store immense quantities of carbon in their trees. As the Arctic warms and the forests die from drought, fire, and pests, much of their carbon will be released into the atmosphere. And perhaps scientists' greatest source of concern lies under the frozen tundra in Siberia, northern Alaska, and northern Canada, where twenty-five hundred cubic kilometers of frozen peat reside in the permafrost.5 As the permafrost warms and melts, the peat's organic material may decay and release huge amounts of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. In 2005, Russian scientists warned that an area of peat bog in western Siberia the size of France and Germany combinedand potentially containing seventy billion of tons of methanehad already begun to thaw." Climate scientists can identify some potentially counterbalancing negative feedbacks. For instance, the world's oceans absorb a lot of carbon dioxide, so as Arctic ice melts, the newly exposed Arctic water may actually reduce warming by sucking more carbon out of the atmosphere. In fact, the relative influence of positive and negative feedbacks is one of the most fiercely debated subjects among climate scientists. But in recent years, evidence has steadily mounted that dangerous positive feedbacks are outweighing beneficial negative ones, especially in the Arctic. In 2005, some twenty scientists published a paper in a top journal that made the case starkly. "There seem to be few, if any, processes or feedbacks within the Arctic system," they wrote, "capable of altering this trajectory toward [an ice-free] statep. 168-70
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Impacts Genocide
Rwanda proves how population growth triggers conflict and genocide
Brown, Worldwatch Institute President, 2006 (Lester, Plan B 2.0 Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civlization in Trouble, Earth Policy Institute, p. 111) Rwanda has become a classic case study in how mounting population pressure can translate into political tension and conflict. James Gasana, who was Rwanda's Minister of Agriculture and Environment in 1990-92, offers some insights. As the chair of a national agricultural commission in 1990, he had warned that without "profound transformations in its agriculture, [Rwanda] will not be capable of feeding adequately its population under the present growth rate." Although the country's demographers projected major future gains in population, Gasana said in 1990 that he did not see how Rwanda would reach 10 million inhabitants without social disorder "unless important progress in agriculture, as well as other sectors of the economy, were achieved." Gasana's warning of possible social disorder was prophetic. He further described how siblings inherited land from their parents and how, with an average of seven children per family, plots that were already small were fragmented further. Many farmers tried to find new land, moving onto steeply sloping mountains. By 1989, almost half of Rwanda's cultivated land was on slopes of 10 to 35 degrees, land that is universally considered uncultivable. In 1950, Rwanda's population was 2.4 million. By 1993, it was 7.5 million, making it the most densely populated country in Africa. As population grew, so did the demand for firewood. By 1991, the demand was more than double the sustainable yield of local forests. As trees disappeared, straw and other crop residues were used for cooking fuel. With less organic matter in the soil, land fertility declined. As the health of the land deteriorated, so did that of the people dependent on it. Eventually there was simply not enough food to go around. A quiet desperation developed. Like a drought-afflicted countryside, it could be ignited with a single match. That match ignited with the crash of a plane on April 6, 1994, shot down as it approached the capital of Kigali, killing President Juvenal Habyarimana. The crash unleashed an organized attack by Hutus, leading to an estimated 800,000 deaths of Tutsis and moderate Hutus in 100 days. In some villages, whole families were slaughtered lest there be survivors to claim the family plot of land.53 Many other African countries, largely rural in nature, are on a demographic track similar to Rwanda's. Tanzania's population of 38 million in 2005 is projected to increase to 67 million by 2050. Eritrea, where the average family has six children, is projected to grow from 4 million to 11 million by 2050. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the population is projected to triple, going from 58 million to 177 million.
The root cause of genocides like Rwanda and Haiti is unchecked population growth
Geyer, foreign correspondent, 1998 (Georga, Truths About Todays World, May, http://www.npg.or~projects/malthus/geyer-story.htm) Malthus may have been wrong on specifics, but in general principle he was right," Kaplan told a small group brought together by the Biocentric Institute at Airlie House here. "All the countries with violent upheavals in the 1980s and '90s were the ones that showed the highest growth rate in the '60s! Every country where bloody internecine civil wars have occurred in recent years had a huge population preceding the conflict." Could he be right? I went to U.N. population data. Rwanda, from 2.1 million in 1950 to 8 million today; Haiti, from 3.3 million then to 7.5 million today; Algeria, from 8.8 million to 30.2 million; Afghanistan, 9 million to 24.8 million; Zaire or Congo, 12.2 to 49 million; Nicaragua, 1.1 million to 4.8 million; Tajikistan, 1.5 million to 6.1 million; El Salvador, 2 million to 5.8 million; Ethiopia, 18.4 million to 58.4 million today. I was flabbergasted. "You must understand," Kaplan went on, "that in these conflicts the underlying causes come first and the beginning comes last. Take the civil war in Algeria. It all started with the '92 elections (when the military rescinded them because the Islamic fundamentalists were winning.) But actually that 'beginning' was the end of a long culmination of events in the '60s when Algeria began to show one of the highest population growth rates in the world. That brought hordes of children into the cities where infrastructures were collapsing, and soon unemployed young men were roaming around with nothing to do. "1992 was merely the spark." In short, to cite two other examples, it is no accident that before the Rwandan genocide of 1995-96, Rwandan women were giving birth an average of eight times. It is also no accident that, in Haiti during these last years of implosion and civil war, Haitian women were giving birth an average of six times. These high population rates do not actually cause, the slaughters, of course, but they exacerbate all the other problems and remove the possibilities of easier or quicker solutions. They also throw people too closely together and swiftly involve them in a fight for food and water and make genocide an acceptable alternative.
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Affirmative Answers
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No Link: AIDS has no effect on population growth

AIDS isnt even slowing population growth
Ashford, Population Census Bureau technical director for policy information, 2006 (Lori S., How HIV and AIDS Affect Populations, Population Reference Bureau, http://www.prb.org/pdf06/HowHIVAIDSAffectsPopulations.pdf.) The AIDS epidemic is one of the most destructive health crises of modern times, ravaging families and communities throughout the world. By 2005, more than 25 million people had died and an estimated 39 million were living with HIV. An estimated 4 million people were newly infected with HIV in 200595percent of them in sub-Saharan Africa, Eastern Europe, or Asia. While sub-Saharan Africa has been hardest hit, other regions also face serious AIDS epidemics (see the table and Box 1). In recent years, nationally representative surveys have enabled researchers to lower the previously published HIV prevalence estimates for some countries. But the number of people infected and the effects on their families, communities, and countries are still staggering.1This policy brief gives an overview of the effects of HIV and AIDS on population size, characteristics, and well-being. It also highlights the major efforts needed to control the epidemic. The pandemic continues to spread worldwide despite prevention efforts and successes in a few countries. Comprehensive approaches to improve reproductive and sexual health will require continued commitment and investment. Demographic and Health Effects of HIV/AIDS Countries that have been hard hit by the AIDS epidemic have seen mortality surge and life expectancy drop in the last decade, as detailed below. But because the severely affected countries in sub-Saharan Africa also have high fertility (average births per woman) and most have relatively small populations, the epidemic has not led to population decline in the region. In a few countries, such as Botswana, Lesotho, and South Africa, population growth has slowed dramatically or stopped due to AIDS, but overall growth in the region surpasses that of other world regions. Even accounting for AIDS-related mortality, sub-Saharan Africas population is projected to grow from 767 million in 2006 to 1.7 billion in 2050.
Population is growing despite AIDS pandemic.

VOA News, 2006 (Africas Expected Population Bulge Threatens Future Sustainability, March 7, http://www.voanews.com/english/archive/200603/2006-03-07-voa80.cfm?CFID=155565008&CFTOKEN=83135521) So, why exactly is Africa set to experience such a huge population bulge? "African birthrates are the highest in the world. It's due to a variety of factors, certainly the desire for large numbers of children," said Carl Haub, a demographer with the Population Reference Bureau. "The fact that the population is very rural, is still dependent on the land. And governments in Africa have not been very efficient in making contraceptive services and reproductive health services available to the general population. And in part because it is difficult. It is a difficult logistical exercise." Haab says this bulge is coming despite high morbidity rates due to AIDS, currently ravaging much of the continent, most especially in South Africa where the vast majority of HIV-infected people in the world live. He also says massive population growth paradoxically assumes there will be a decline in fertility rates in some African nations.
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Generic Answers
Forecasts or the crunch are wrong. Their authors must be held accountable for past mistakes.
Smil, University of Manitoba distinguished professor, 2005 (Vaclav, Population and Devlopment Review 31(2) June, 201-236) The only sensible way to appraise the reliability of such forecasts is to look back and see how well their counterparts foretold yesterdays and todays realities. Such backward-looking exercises are particularly valid because during the past generation most of these specific point forecasts have relied on the same suite of intellectual approaches and (often computerized) forecasting techniques as do todays prognoses that look five to 50 or more years ahead. These retrospectives reveal that most of the truly long-range quantitative forecasts (spanning roughly one generation, or between 15 and 25 years) turn out to be useless within years, even within months, of their publication. I have demonstrated these failures by a detailed examination of more than a century of every possible category of long-range energy forecasts (Smil 2003).
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Generic Answers - Morality

Its morally wrong to embrace death as a solution to population problems
Simon, University of Maryland professor of business administration and member of the Action Insitute Advisory Board, 1998 (Julian, The Ultimate Resource II: People, Materials, and the Environment, http://www.juliansimon.com/writings/Ultimate_Resource/TPREFACE.txt) The longer I have read the literature about population, the more baffled and distressed I have become that one idea is omitted: Enabling a potential human being to come into life and to enjoy life is a good thing, just as protecting a living person's life from being ended is a good thing. Of course a death is not the same as an averted life, in large part because others feel differently about the two. Yet I find no logic implicit in the thinking of those who are horrified at the starvation of a comparatively few people in a faraway country (and apparently more horrified than at the deaths by political murder in that same faraway country, or at the deaths by accidents in their own country) but who are positively gleeful with the thought that 1 million or 10 million times that many lives will never be lived that might be lived.
Their immoral, anti-life ethic justifies genocide

Simon, University of Maryland professor of business administration and member of the Action Insitute Advisory Board, 1998 (Julian, The Ultimate Resource II: People, Materials, and the Environment, http://www.juliansimon.com/writings/Ultimate_Resource/TPREFACE.txt) I can suggest to Davis and Ehrlich more than one reason for having more children and taking in more immigrants. Least important is that the larger population will probably mean a higher standard of living for our grandchildren and great- grandchildren. (My technical 1977 and 1992 books and a good many chapters in this book substantiate that assertion.) A more interesting reason is that we need another person for exactly the same reason we need Davis and Ehrlich. That is, just as the Davises and Ehrlichs of this world are of value to the rest of us, so will the average additional person be of value. The most interesting reason for having additional people, however, is this: If the Davises and Ehrlichs say that their lives are of value to themselves, and if the rest of us honor that claim and say that our lives are of value to us, then in the same manner the lives of additional people will be of value to those people themselves. Why should we not honor their claims, too? If Davis or Ehrlich were to ask those 23 million Americans born between 1960 and 1970 whether it was a good thing that they were born, many of them would be able to think of a good reason or two. Some of them might also be so unkind as to add, "Yes, it's true that you gentlemen do not personally need any of us for your own welfare. But then, do you think that we have greater need of you?" What is most astonishing is that these simple ideas, which would immediately spring to the minds of many who cannot read or write, have never come into the heads of famous scientists such as Davis and Ehrlich - by their own admission. And by repeating the assertion in 1991, Ehrlich makes it clear that he does not consider the above ideas, which I suggested to him earlier, to be "sensible". The absence of this basic value for human life also is at the bottom of Ehrlich's well-known restatement of Pascal's wager. "If I'm right, we will save the world [by curbing population growth]. If I'm wrong, people will still be better fed, better housed, and happier, thanks to our efforts. [All the evidence suggests that he is wrong.] Will anything be lost if it turns out later that we can support a much larger population than seems possible today?" Please note how different is Pascal's wager: Live as if there is God, because even if there is no God you have lost nothing. Pascal's wager applies entirely to one person. No one else loses if s/he is wrong. But Ehrlich bets what he thinks will be the economic gains that we and our descendants might enjoy against the unborn's very lives. Would he make the same sort of wager if his own life rather than others' lives were the stake? (Chapter 40 has more to say about the morality of betting other people's lives.) I do not say that society should never trade off human life for animals or even for non-living things. Indeed, society explicitly makes exactly this tradeoff when a firefighter's life is lost protecting a building or a forest or a zoo, and neither I nor hardly anyone else says it should not be so.
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Generic Answers Population Stabilizing

Expert consensus that the population is stabilizing.
Demeny, PhD and distinguished scholar, 2004 (Paul, Population Futures for the Next Three Hundred Years: Soft Landing or Surprises to Come? September, p. 516) The dominant voices in that expert consensus foresee a peaking of the global population in the second part of the present century, followed by a slow declinea pleasant soft-landing to a slowly decaying quasi-stationary state, underpinned by spreading and ultimately generalized economic affluence.
No overshoot now
Deming, professor of geology and geophysics, 2004 (David, Malthus Reconsidered, March 22, http://www.ncpa.org/pub/ba/ba469/) Malthus did not foresee that technological changes would enable resource growth to outstrip population growth. Nor did he anticipate the demographic transition that takes place as societies move from agricultural to technological civilizations. Malthus thought that population increase in prosperous societies was a universal rule and called it an "incontrovertible truth." In his memorable 1968 essay Tragedy of the Commons, Garrett Hardin (1968, p. 1,244) noted that "there is no prosperous population in the world today that has, and has had for some time, a [population] growth rate of zero." If this was true in 1968, it is no longer true today. The birthrate necessary for zero population growth is 2.1 births per woman. The birthrate in many developed countries is now substantially lower than the minimum required to replace the population. For instance: - Japan has a total fertility rate of 1.3 births per woman, and its population is projected to fall 21 percent by 2050. - The total fertility rate for Europe in 2002 was 1.4 births per woman, and the population is projected to fall 11 percent by 2050. - Developed regions of the world Europe, North America, Australia, Japan and New Zealand have 19 percent of the world's population and an average fertility rate of 1.6 births per woman. In less developed areas the fertility rate has also fallen dramatically and continues to decline: - In the 1950s, the average woman in Africa, Asia and Latin America gave birth to 6 children. - By 2002, the average fertility rate in these less developed areas had fallen to 3.1 births per woman. Among the reasons that have been given for the falling birth rates that accompany economic development: - In agrarian societies, children are an economic asset, whereas in technological societies they are an economic liability. - Birth control has become increasingly available and culturally acceptable. - Infant mortality has fallen. - Women in technological societies spend more time on education and work, and less time on childbearing and rearing. In retrospect, it is now apparent that a turning point in the history of human population growth took place in the period from 1962 to 1963. In those years, the Earth's human population reached its highest growth rate 2.2 percent per year. Since then, the growth rate has decreased, reaching 1.2 percent in 2001. If this trend continues, the world's population will likely stabilize and perhaps even begin declining before the end of this century.
Development solves research shortages.

Simon, University of Maryland professor of business administration and member of the Action Insitute Advisory Board, 1998 (Julian, The Ultimate Resource II: People, Materials, and the Environment, http://www.juliansimon.com/writings/Ultimate_Resource/TPREFACE.txt) There is an almost insuperable difficulty in the definition of available "copper," "oil," and so on, because there are many different grades of each resource in places that vary in difficulty of extracting the resource, and because (as seen in Table 2-1) the amounts at low concentrations (such as the quantities of metals on the sea bottom and in sea water) are extraordinarily large in contrast to the quantities we usually have in mind (the "proven reserves"). What's more, we constantly create new supplies of resources, in the sense of discovering them where they were thought not to exist. (In the past, the U.S. Geological Survey and others thought that there was no oil in California or Texas. Often, new supplies of a resource come from areas outside the accustomed boundaries of our system, as resources from other continents came to Europe in past centuries and as resources may in the future be brought from the sea or from other planets. New supplies also arise when a resource is created from other materials, just as grain is grown and nuclear fuel is "bred." (Here we must avoid getting hung up on the word "natural," as in "natural resources.")
Fast Track 2007

Population DA - Malthus

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Population DA - Malthus

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Population Disadvantage Fast Track 07

Fast Track 2007

Population Disadvantage Fast Track 07

1NC Shell 1/2

B. All forms of death checks are necessary to avoid the crunch

C. Uncontrolled population growth causes environmental degradation and extinction

Fast Track 2007

Population Disadvantage Fast Track 07

1NC Shell 2/2

Fast Track 2007

Population Disadvantage Fast Track 07

Africa will soon overshoot carrying capacity.

Fast Track 2007

Population Disadvantage Fast Track 07

Fast Track 2007

Population Disadvantage Fast Track 07

Links Death Checks

War, famine, and disease are all good checks on death

Fast Track 2007

Population Disadvantage Fast Track 07

Links Public Health Assistance

Improvements in public health increase life expectancy

Fast Track 2007

Population Disadvantage Fast Track 07

Links African Aid

Aid to Africa dramatically increases population.

Fast Track 2007

Population Disadvantage Fast Track 07

Links African Aid

Fast Track 2007

Population Disadvantage Fast Track 07

Links Sub Saharan Africa key

Growth rates in Africa are the fastest growing

Fast Track 2007

Population Disadvantage Fast Track 07

Links Solving Diseases

Diseases greatly influence mortality and provide a crucial death check

Fast Track 2007

Population Disadvantage Fast Track 07

Links Solving AIDS - Generic

AIDS has caused zero population growth

Fast Track 2007

Population Disadvantage Fast Track 07

Links Solving AIDS Generic

AIDS means slower population growth as deaths outnumber births

HIV epidemic is slowing population growth in sub-Saharan Africa

Population growth is slowing because of AIDS

Fast Track 2007

Population Disadvantage Fast Track 07

Links Solving AIDS - Generic

AIDS is slowing world population growth

Fast Track 2007

Population Disadvantage Fast Track 07

Links Solving AIDS Generic

HIV accounts for 1/3 reduction of population in sub-Saharan Africa

AIDS is included in U.N. overpopulation calculations

Fast Track 2007

Population Disadvantage Fast Track 07

Links Solving AIDS Generic

AIDS will increase death in sub-Saharan Africa by over 150%

Fast Track 2007

Population Disadvantage Fast Track 07

Links Solving AIDS Plan Specific