ITESM Campus Guadalajara Gilberto Maytorena A01110380 Juan ablo Ceballos A00!!

!!"8#$ I%&n Gallardo Salas A01110'$( Simula)i*n In+, Jonat-an Cue%as Jue%es !3 de enero de !01' HOW TO CONDUCT A SUCCESSFUL SIMULATION STUDY INTRODUCTION In order to per.orm a simulation study/ one must -a%e/ at a minimum/ 0no1led+e o.2 3 Simulation met-odolo+y 4model %alidation/ sele)tin+ input probability distributions/ desi+n and analysis o. simulation e5perien)e/ et)6, 3 robability t-eory 3 Statisti)s 3 roje)t mana+ement 3 T-e system under study Model pro+rammin+ represents only about !" to "07 o. t-e 1or0 .rom a simulation study, DEFINITIONS 3 Verification2 determinin+ 1-et-er t-e model assumptions 4)on)eptual simulation model6 -a%e been )orre)tly translated into a )omputer pro+ram, 3 Validation2 pro)ess o. determinin+ 1-et-er a simulation model is an a))urate representation o. t-e system/ .or t-e parti)ular obje)ti%es o. t-e study, I. t-e model is %alid/ t-en it )an be used to ma0e de)isions about t-e system, 3 Credibility2 1-en a simulation model and its results are a))epted as )orre)t by t-e de)ision3ma0er and ot-er 0ey personnel, It is important to )lari.y t-at %alidity does not imply )redibility and %i)e %ersa, 3 Input modeling2 is a statisti)al issue t-at is )on)erned 1it- determinin+ t-e probability distribution 1-i)- best represents a sour)e o. system randomness, 3 Output analysis2 is a statisti)al issue t-at is )on)erned 1it- estimatin+ a simulation model8s true measures o. per.orman)e 4e,+, run len+t-/ len+t- o. 1arm up period/ number o. interdependent model repli)ations/ et)6, SEVEN-STEP APPROACH FOR CONDUCTING A SUCCESSFUL SIMULATION STUDY 1, 9ormulate t-e roblem2 it is stated by t-e de)ision3ma0er, At t-e be+innin+ o. t-e proje)t/ t-e e5a)t problem may not be pre)isely 0no1n, A 0i)0o.. meetin+ in%ol%in+ t-e proje)t mana+er/ simulation analysts and subje)t3matter e5perts 4SMEs6 must be -eld, T-e .ollo1in+ topi)s must be dis)ussed2 3 T-e o%erall obje)ti%es o. study, 3 T-e spe)i.i) :uestions to be ans1ered by t-e study, 3 T-e per.orman)e measures t-at 1ill be used to e%aluate t-e e..i)a)y o. di..erent systems )on.i+urations,

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T-e s)ope o. t-e model, T-e systems )on.i+urations to be modeled, T-e time .rame .or t-e study and t-e re:uired resour)ed, A major di..i)ulty is t-e misunderstandin+

!, Colle)t In.ormation;<ata and Constru)t a Con)eptual Model2 3 Colle)t in.ormation on t-e system stru)ture and operatin+ pro)edures, 3 Colle)t data to spe)i.y model parameters and probability distribution 4o. possible6, 3,