Forecasting Models

:
-1 :Qualitative Models



. .
- :Sales Force Estimates


.

Wants Or Wish List Needs Or
Necessary Purchase

.
Panel Of Experts Methods


.
- :Market Search

:
-1
-2
-3
-4
- :The Delphi Method
Events

:
-5 11 -5
-6
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-7
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 -2 Quantitative Models
- Time Series Analysis

:

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.
:
Y= = T X C X S X S X R.
:
=Y =T =C = S
=R .



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:
Simple Moving Average Method

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:

:
7
6
5
4
3
2
1

65
51
48
41
32
31
35

:
-1
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-2
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-3
:
( 3 4 2 5 ).
-4
:
( %31 %11 %41 %21
).

:
(
)2 1 :

:
= t
=n
=K ( (K=1,2,3,..
=N )(t <N
= t-k
:

1
3
5

2
31

3
32

4
41

5
48

7
65

6
51

( )41+32+31
34=3112=3
(5 )51+48+41+32+31
=41=5211

( )4 3 :

:
= t
= k
= k
:

3( : 4
2 5 ).

%33( :
%13 %43
%23 ).

1
35

2
33

3
32

4
43

5
48

6
53
()533+232+443+348
14
=(14)153+64+163+144
= 37=14518

7
65

(48+331353+333365
%133 )332343+3343
=(1 )8+1935+5+1935
= 5137=%133518
= 518

:Casual Methods Regression Multiple Regression

Linear

Linear Regression

Dependent Variable
Independent Variables
:

Y=a +b X
a b Least Squares Method
:

a . (
).
b .
( )r :

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:
( )

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 5 Y :X

1
2
3
4
5

X
55111
15111
31111
51111
65111

Y
149111
46111
75111
135111
18111

:
-1
-2
-3 Y X 71111

-4

:
Y=a + b X
a b Least Squares Method
:

a b r
:
X

XY

1
2
3
4
5

55
15
31
51
65

149
46
75
135
181

2511
4225

215

586

81567 29585 11875

= 43 = 5 512

= 111 =2 285

3125

8195

22211

225

691

2116

911

2251

5625

18225 6751
32411 11711

4431
25155 -29585 117 435 -29585
= B = = = 2772
2
1631
9245 11875
)43(5 -11875

= 1714 = 116796 - 117 = 2772 43 -117

:
Y=0.04 + 2.72 X
a ,0,0 ( )Y
( ) X .
( ).
b 5015 ( )Y ( )X .

:

0.8

- .

 ,08 ,012 ,0,, Y X

71111 :
Y=0,.04 + 2.72 70000 = 0,.04 + 190400 90400.04

5,
Y :X

:
-1
-2
-3 Y X 11

-4