Module 15: Inference

GLM Summary
model estimate

Y = X" + !
fitted values

!1 !1 !1 ! = ( X' V X) X' V Y

residuals

= X! Y

r = Y!Y
= (I ! (X ' V!1X )!1 X ' V!1 )Y

= RY

Inference
! After fitting the GLM use the estimated parameters to determine whether there is significant activation present in the voxel. ! Inference is based on the fact that:
~ N (!, (XT V!1X )!1 ) !

! Use t and F procedures to perform tests on effects of interest.

Contrasts
! It is often of interest to see whether a linear combination of the parameters are significant. ! The term cT! specifies a linear combination of the estimated parameters, i.e.
cT ! = c1!1 + c2 ! 2 + + cn ! n

! Here c is called a contrast vector.

Example
Event-related experiment with two types of stimuli.

H 0 : !2 = !3
!1

!2 !3
+ Noise

H 0 : cT ! = 0

cT = (0,1,!1)

T-test
! To test

H 0 : cT ! = 0
use the t-statistic:

H a : cT ! ! 0

T=

cT ! Var cT !

( )

tr ( RV ) 2 ! Under H0, T is approximately t(!) with ! = tr (( RV ) 2 )

Multiple Contrasts
! We often want to make simultaneous tests of several contrasts at once. ! c is now a contrast matrix. ! Suppose then
& 1 0 0 0 0# c=$ $ 0 1 0 0 0! ! % "
! ! $ 1 & cT ! = # # !2 & " %

Example
Consider a model with box-car shaped activation and drift modeled using the discrete cosine basis.
!1"
" "

!2"

!3"
" " " " " "

!4" !5" !6" !7" !8" !9"

$"

!"

#"

Example
Do the drift components add anything to the model?
T Test: H 0 : c ! = 0

where

&0 $ $0 $0 $ c = $0 $0 $ $0 $ %0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 1 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 1 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 1 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 1 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 1 0

0# ! 0! 0! ! 0! 0! ! 0! ! 1"

Example
This is equivalent to testing:
H 0 : (!3 ! 4 !5 !6 !7 !8 !9 ) = 0
T

To understand what this implies, we split the design matrix into two parts:
&1 X 11 $1 X 21 $ $" " $ %1 X n1
X0

X 12 ! X 19 # X 22 ! X 29 ! ! " " ! ! X n2 ! X n9 "

X1

Example
! Do the drift components add anything to the model? ! The X1 matrix explains the drift. Does it contribute in a significant way to the model? ! Compare the results using the full model, with design matrix X, with those obtained using a reduced model, with design matrix X0.

F-test
! Test the hypothesis using the F-statistic:
F=

(r r

T 0 0

! rT r

2 (tr ((R ! R 0 )V ) "

! Assuming the errors are normally distributed, F has an approximate F-distribution with (%0, %) degrees of freedom, where

"0 =

tr ([(R ! R 0 )V ]) tr [(R ! R 0 )V ]

tr ( RV ) 2 and ! = tr (( RV ) 2 )

Statistical Images
! For each voxel a hypothesis test is performed. The statistic corresponding to that test is used to create a statistical image over all voxels.

Localizing Activation
1.! Construct a model for each voxel of the brain.
! Massive univariate approach ! Regression models (GLM) commonly used.
Stimulus functions!
Conditions!

HRF! A!

BOLD signal !

Design Matrix!
Time!

A! B!

!
Time!

B!
Time!

=
A B

Y = X! "+!

! ~ N! (0, V )

Localizing Activation
2.! Perform a statistical test to determine whether task related activation is present in the voxel.

H0 : c ! = 0

Statistical image: Map of t-tests across all voxels (a.k.a t-map).

Localizing Activation
3.! Choose an appropriate threshold for determining statistical significance.

Statistical parametric map: Each significant voxel is color-coded according to the size of its p-value.

Statistical Images
How do we determine which voxels are actually active? Problems: ! The statistics are obtained by performing a large number of hypothesis tests. ! Many of the test statistics will be artificially inflated due to the noise. ! This leads to many false positives.

Multiple Comparisons
! Which of 100,000 voxels are significant? ! &=0.05 ' 5,000 false positive voxels ! Choosing a threshold is a balance between sensitivity (true positive rate) and specificity (true negative rate).
t>1 t>2 t>3 t>4 t>5

End of Module

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