The Formula for Good Judgment (and The Cure for Bad Judgment)

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Fancy decision making models abound in business, but they are not what leaders use day-to-day, meeting-to-meeting. Decision making in that environment is based on human judgment. Not surprisingly, good judgment equals good decision making and bad judgment equals bad decision making. Fortunately, good judgment is learnable. But first, it helps to explore bad judgment, because therein lies the formula to good judgment. Think about the times youve accused someone of outrageously bad judgment; odds are the situation fell into one of these two, opposite categories. #1: Missing the Bigger Point You know the aphorism, He cant see the forest for the trees. That represents one kind of bad judgment: Being so focused on the details that larger issues are lost.

Old joke alert: Youve probably heard the one about the three tourists captured by cannibals in French New Guinea. To kill the tourists, the cannibals set up a guillotine abandoned by French colonialists. Tearful and shaking, the first tourist got on his knees, with his head forced into the guillotine. The blade was released and shot down the length of the guillotine only to stop a few millimeters from the tourists neck. The cannibals took this as a sign from above that the man was to be released, and so he was. The second tourist . . . okay, okay, well spare you . . . same thing happened. As the third tourist, an engineer, got on his knees, his trained eyes squinted up at the mechanism. A smile washed over his face and he beamed at the cannibal leader, Hey, Chief! I think I know your problem! Sorry. But we see this deadly dumb focus on details all the time. We see military briefers who will, BY GOLLY, plod through each and every PowerPoint slide, regardless of the interests or needs of the audience. We see software writers who are determined to add that ONE MORE FEATURE, until a market window is utterly lost. And the list goes on and on. Sometimes it is, indeed, damnation that is in the details. #2: Missing the Finer Points There is an opposite problem. Although its not an accepted aphorism, there are people who cant see the trees for the forest. You might get the occasional big, broad idea from them, but it will be without understanding what it takes to achieve the idea. And weve all seen the imperious executive spouting The Big Directive, clueless about what balls will be dropped, or other repercussions incurred in pursuit of this shiny new object, or as a result of it. Nineteenth century economist Frdric Bastiat used this idea in distinguishing between bad economists and good economists: There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effects that must be foreseen. The Formula For Good Judgment Both kinds of bad judgment beget bad side effects. Whats the cure for either type of bad judgment? Combine them both. Fuse the two kinds of bad judgment together, and then you get good judgment. Kind of like sodium and chloride; separate, theyre poison. Together, theyre salt.

If you want to develop good judgment (or help someone else achieve it), learn to do both kinds of judgment, starting with your preferred style, and then consciously and deliberately, looping over to the other style, and back again a few times. Thats it. So, if youre a tree-type person (the engineer in the guillotine), go ahead and focus on your critical details, but then loop back the other way. Give meaning and context to the details by asking questions such as:

Whats the ultimate point here? What were we originally funded to produce? Whats the broader impact of the decision Im considering? Could anything negative be created by my positive intentions?

Then loop back over to crucial details and see if you still like the game plan or want to alter it a bit. Make a couple of little-picture/big-picture loops until you are satisfied with your thinking. Thats how good judgment works: you work from side to side, like the Texas two-step. On the other hand, if youre a forest-type person (Mr. or Ms. Big Thinker), then go ahead and revel in that Big Picture, but then loop over to detail-land with questions such as:

What would be the first, concrete step? What will it take to make this happen, in terms of time, money, and effort? What might we have to STOP doing in order to do this thing? Who else, or what else, might I affect with this effort?

After youve got some of those grimy details in hand, loop back to your lofty heights and see if you still like the scenery. Again, consciously and deliberately, jog around this track a few times. It is the only way to move from a vaporous vision to an actionable one and one that youll be proud of when its achieved. Whether youre a big-picture or a detail-oriented type, if you make the loop enough times, in the end youll be able to see the forest AND the trees. One direction will feel natural to you, but the other you will have to push yourself toward consciously and deliberately. With practice, good decision making will become habit.

Acknowledgements: It would be lousy judgment if we didnt credit the smart guy who came up with this model. Years ago, our friend and former colleague (and

intercultural communication overlord) Dr. Milton Bennett spouted this off in a class we were co-teaching. It made loads of sense and has stuck with us ever since.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, May 25th, 2011 at 3:53 pm and is filed under Decision Making & Critical Thinking, Leadership. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

13 Responses to The Formula for Good Judgment (and The Cure for Bad Judgment)
1. Sam Maddox says: May 26, 2011 at 9:36 am I am a big picture thinker and I know that is my biggest weakness, so I like to include detailed-oriented people in any decision I make. The key is to make sure you really listen to them. This is the true power of diversity of thought. Reply
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Bill says: May 26, 2011 at 1:02 pm Totally agree, Sam. That IS the power of a diverse team. Of course, you have to know how to harness that power, and not let one person take over until its time for a decision. (Someday were gonna write a piece on how to use structured group processes to do just that. A lot of our work, such as our Results Roundtable, relies on exactly what you are referring to.) Reply

2.

Matt Pommer says: May 26, 2011 at 12:47 pm Bill and Wendi, Thank you for these wonderful snippets! My days are sooo busy and time sooo precious that I loathe the many distracter emails that I received daily, even hourly! Far from being distractions, your posts are always most appreciated! The topics are pertinent and the information is applicable immediately. Each one, in and of itself, is a superb example of the Three Cs of effective communication (clear, concrete, concise). So well written, such great examples. Nice work.

CAPT Matthew W. Pommer Jr. USN Reply 3. Bill says: May 26, 2011 at 12:57 pm Okay. Were blushing! Thanks so much (THAT should keep us going another week or so!). Reply 4. Paul says: May 26, 2011 at 1:32 pm Well, now lets first define judgment. Is judgment the same as making decisions? Is it transferable [the same] between business and personal? Is it defined as the ability to have good outcomes? If yes then what then defines good. Is good the outcome of bosses or outcomes that are personally beneficial? Donald Trump appears to have good judgment for he seems to get what he wants. For that matter what is bad judgment? Is bad judgment to invest in Donald Trump? Or is it never being able to pick winners at the track? Is it good or bad judgment to keep buying a powerball ticket on each time it rolls around? I suppose it is good if you win, and bad if you dont. There are very specific rules for interacting with people, there are very specific rules for decision making, there are very specific rules for negotiating. This is quotable however, everyone learns from their mistakes. sadly most people learn to repeat them. Paul S Reply 5. Al Bernstein says: May 31, 2011 at 11:08 am

Hi B&W I like this article. I might also note that bad judgment results when people mistake what is easiest, most convenient, most familiar, or least frightening for what is most effective. Best, Al Reply 6. brianlmerritt says: June 10, 2011 at 7:16 am If you absolutely see the big picture, and youve got a great grasp on the details, and yet no one else can see it, then what do you do? Every good judgement then requires translating into the separate languages of the forest watchers and the tree huggers and the leaf collectors and the Reply
o

WendiP says: July 28, 2011 at 4:16 pm Yep. If you have made the good judgement loop a couple of time and understand the issue, then you will STILL have to enter the frame of reference of whomever you communicate with. Detail-oriented people will need to see lots of details (and maybe a peek at the big picture), and big picture people will need to see a big picture (a picture, literally is what they sometimes need), and maybe a peek at the details, or reassurance that someone they trust has got the details covered. Reply

7.

Karen Favazza Spencer says: June 17, 2011 at 6:36 am Absolutely. Got to be able to keep the big picture in mind, deal with the details, AND step back from time to time to survey the overall environment. About 20 years ago I took a Hemisphericity Workshop at Polaroid in Boston. The course was required for all Polaroid managers. The company had found that the engineers who made the company work and the visionaries who came up with the big ideas tended to have difficulties communicating. The thing that most stuck with me was that if there was

difficulty, the left brain person would get more detailed and the right brain person would get higher level in their explanations. However, if the person they were talking to was the opposite type, this only increased the frustration levels and miscommunication. The Polaroid solution was employees posted their brain maps on their office doors and in their cubicles so that all comers would know to become more detailed in their explanations when speaking to the left brain person and more big picture when a right brain person required clarification. BTW: I was tuitioned into the workshop as a right brain person, since the workshop required balance and there was a preponderance of engineers. However, my brain map was a bit atypical in that I had a narrow spike into a left section of my brain. Well, I was dyslexic and it took me awhile to figure it out in school but I did, and I excelled in Algebra. In the real world, its both a boon and a hinderance. I shift tacks very easily and quickly. It makes it difficult for people to characterize me. Keeping the Polaroid lessons in mind helps a great deal. Additionally, being able to come hard about (another sailing term for your landlubbers) is a great boon in analysis and project management. Reply
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Bill says: July 28, 2011 at 4:09 pm Thanks, Karen. Sounds like you have an interesting brain, indeed! But youre right: the ability to come hard about is a boon and we say come hard about SEVERAL TIMES before you think youve got the grasp of something. Reply

8.

George Abney says: July 28, 2011 at 9:34 am It helps to understand where one is in the two thinking styles: Inductive/Deductive. This will determine the kinds of examples used to support a point. A presentation should have structure appropriate to the purpose/goal. Its really a rhetorical balance issue in terms of thought structure in language. I like the loop point. Ive been called loopy myself but there must be a system of self correction or there can be no standard of progress and effectiveness. Reply

9.

WendiP says:

July 28, 2011 at 4:28 pm George, I think youre right that it helps to understand whether your perspective on an issue is inductive or deductive. But then, were suggesting stitching between the two before thinking that youve got a good handle on the issue. That does a pretty good job of building in the self-correction you cite. But, yeah, when you switch to rhetorical mode, you need to know your audiences POV and then craft your message. Have you had a chance to look at our giveaway on the main blog page (Important People: How to Present to Them)? Thanks much for your comments, George nothing loopy (in a bad way) there! Reply 10. The Practical Wisdom of Prudence - Positive-Living-Now says: May 31, 2013 at 1:46 pm [...] challenges you to listen both to your heart and to your head. She asks you to look at both the big picture and at the details [...] Reply

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Thanks for dropping by our soapbox. We have been coaching leaders and consulting with them for quite awhile now. We also provide executive education including courses for the Navy leaders at the Naval Post Graduate School in Monterey, California. View our bios. Every now and then something strikes us as worthy of sharing and so, this blog was born. We help leaders achieve the organizational results they want. This means we're interested in strategy, strategy execution, innovation, organizational design, and leadership in general. So you'll see the occasional stray thought on each of these topics. We very much appreciate your comments. Thanks in advance for the dialog. -Wendi Peck and Bill Casey

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