The views expressed in this presentation are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the

views or policies of the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use. Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.

India
Integrated Farming Systems in Arid Zone of India under Climate Change Perspective . M.M. Roy S.P.S. Tanwar, Suresh Kumar and
Central Arid Zone Research Institute, Jodhpur, Rajasthan & Raman Kant Mishra, Add. Commissioner Ministry of Agriculture, India

Temperature Rise

Rainfall Projections

Climate Projections
Av. Surface temperature: increase by 2 - 4C during 2050s Monsoon Rainfall: Marginal changes in monsoon months (JJAS) : Large changes during non-monsoon months No. of rainy days: set to decrease by more than 15 days Intensity of rains : to increase by 1-4 mm/day Cyclonic storms: Increase in frequency and intensity of cyclonic storms is projected

Vulnerability to Climate Change

Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture

Cereal productivity to decrease by 10-40% by 2100. Greater loss expected in rabi. Every 1oC increase in temperature reduces wheat production by 4-5 million tons. Loss only 1-2 million tons if farmers could plant in time. Increased droughts and floods are likely to increase production variability Reduced frequency of frost damage: less damage to potato, peas, mustard

Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture

Imbalance in food trade due to positive impacts on Europe and N.America, and negative impacts on us Increased water, shelter, and energy requirement for livestock; implications for milk production
Increasing sea and river water temperatures are likely to affect fish breeding, migration, and harvests. Coral reefs start declining from 2030. Considerable effect on microbes, pathogens, and insects

Adaptation and mitigation framework: Need to consider emerging scenario

z
z z z

Greater demand for (quality) food; yields need to increase by 30-50% by 2030 Increasing urbanization and globalization Increasing competition from other sectors for land, energy, water and capital Climate change a continuous process; greater focus on short-term actions on adaptation and mitigation

Adaptation in agriculture is a continuous process

z
z

Agriculture diversity is a manifestation of climatic adaptation Farmers/society have always adapted when allowed by technology availability, their socio-economic capacity, and economics. Induced adaptation by innovation: z Green revolution of 1960s z Resource conservation technologies such as zero tillage z GMOs

Key adaptation strategies

1.

2. 3.

4.
5.

Assisting farmers in coping with current climatic risks Intensifying food production systems Improving land and water management Enabling policies Strengthening adaptation research

Sequestering soil carbon and mitigating GHGs

z
z

Addition of organic manures, minimal tillage, agro-forestry

Alternate drying in irrigated paddies

z
z z

Management practices to increase nitrogen use efficiency

Increasing fuel efficiency in agri. machines Improved management of livestock diet

These strategies have costs and other implications

Agro-Ecological Regions
Ecosystems -6 arid, semi arid, sub humid, humid-per humid, coastal and island ecosystem Agroecoregions - 20 Agro eco subregions 125 Farm families -150 million Farming systems ????

Integrated Farming System

z

IFS is judicious mix of one or more enterprises along with cropping Having complimentary effect through effective recycling of wastes and crop residues and encompasses additional source of income to the farmer. IFS activity is focused around a few selected inter-dependent, inter-related and inter-linked production systems, based on crop, animals and subsidiary professions.

12

ARID ZONE FARMING SYSTEMS A CASE STUDY

13

16

17

Features of Arid Zone of India

$

Geography & Soils Climate

Drought Water Animal Vegetation

: Undulated topography with interspersed rocky terrain. Light textured crust prone soils. : Low and erratic rainfall, high PET due to intense solar radiation, temperatures, and wind. : Recurring feature of Arid Zone. : Scarce, G.W. meager and mostly saline. : Very high population (20.4 m). : Negligible ground cover of poor forage productivity (0.4 0.5 t/ha)

$ $ $ $

Socio-economic status

: High population pressure (22.4 m) illiteracy, uncontrolled grazing, subsistence farming and poor economic base.

Month/Sea son June July August September

Pre Monsoon

Arid Zone 6.9 26.1 -22.8 -8.3

3.1

Semi Arid Zone 2.3 -0.7 15.6 -16.2

-3.9

Increase / Decrease in Rainfall (mm) in 100 years in Rajasthan

Post Monsoon
Total Annual

0.4
7.7

6.4
-3.8

Ref. Guhathakurta, P and Rajeevan, M. 2008. Int. J. Climatol. 28:1453-1469

Climate Change Projections for Arid Zone

z z z

Annual temperature is likely to increase by 2-5oC. Winter temperature and night temperature to increase Rainfall is likely to decline gradually by 20-30% in the northwestern part while the eastern fringe of arid zone may experience an increase of up to 25%. Winter rains may gradually increase by 20-40%. SW & S Rajasthan may get 15-30% higher monsoon rains, but

Very high intensity rain and lesser rainy days expected

20

Farming systems in arid regionLIKELY : Scenario

D o m i n a n t F S RangePastureLivestock farming Arable cropping ANNUAL (Crop diversification) Agroforestry TEMPERATURE Livestock farming

CHANGES IN

Agroforestry Mixed farming Livestock Pastures

IN NORTHWEST INDIA BY YEAR 2071

USING PRECIS RCM FOR A2 SCENARIO
SOURCE:

Grasses 250

Shrubs

Trees

HADLEY CENTRE, UK

350

Crop diversification Boundaries 450 are approximate

GIS OVERLAYS BY A. KAR

Av. Ann. Rainfall

CAZRI, JODHPUR

Likely Impact of Climate Change

Impacts on soil water, runoff, wind and water erosion, crop pest and diseases Increased evapotranspiration: 1o C increase lead to 15 mm more ET i.e. additional 313 MCM water needed. Decrease in biomass production between 49-54 % at 4oC rise in temperature 20-40% yield loss in mustard and other rabi crops Impacts on livestock: comfort, body weight, milk yield Degradation of pastures Lasirus Cenchrus (most palatable)

Cynadon Elusine

Cenchrus biflorus- Aristida -Oropatium thomaeum (least palatable and degraded)

Farming System Perspective of Arid Zone Agriculture

Poor and complex SicoEconomic Frame work
Rich Indigenous Knowledge Pool on Arid Land Farming Systems
Poverty Alleviation Livelihood Security Innovations& Technological Advancement Natural Resource Up gradation Sustainable Land Management

Fragile Natural Resource Base

Macro and Micro level Planning of Farming System Research & Perspective Market linkages & value Chain For profit optimization Location specific Farming System Modules

Economic viability and Ecological Stability

Farming systems in arid region : Scenario

RangePastureLivestock farming Arable cropping (Crop diversification) Agro-forestry Livestock farming Agro-forestry Mixed farming Livestock Pastures

D o m i n a n t
F S

Grasses

Shrubs

Trees

Crop diversification 450

250

350

Average Annual Rainfall

Traditional agroforestry systems of Thar Desert

Rainfall zone (mm) Agroforestry system Tree/Shurb density (Nos./ha) 31.4 14.2 % density of prominent species 80.5 80.0

>400 300-400 200-300

<200

P. cineraria A. nilotica based P. cineraria based Zizyphus spp. - P. cineraria based Zizyphus spp. - P. cineraria Salvadora spp. based

91.7
17.2

92.0
65.0

26

The Parkland Effect

The potential of growing sweet sorghum for fodder was not studied earlier anywhere in western Rajasthan z May act as precursor for sugar industry
z

28

Agroforestry with P.cineraria

29

30

Agri Horti System

31

Crop diversification - Intercropping

32

Agripasture with C. mopane

33

Agri Silvi culture H. binnata

34

Ley Farming

35

Boundary plantation for fuelwood and as Shelterbelt A. tortilis

36

37

Percent economic gains from farming system components in integrated farming system model

Present worth (Rs.) , benefit: cost ratio and IRR of integrated farming system model after a decade (2001-2010)

Parameters

Discount factor (%)

0 15 25

Net present worth (Rs.)

B:C Ratio

5,28,275 1,63,400 83,219

2.05

1.93

1.83

IRR (%)

21.6%

Benefit cost ratio of various components of IFS model (Average of 10 years)

3.5 3 2.5 B:C ratio 2 1.5

1
0.5

0
Arable farming Agro Forestry with P. cineraria Agri-Horti with Ber Farm forestry with H. binnata Farm forestry with A. tortilis silvi pasture (C.ciliari+ Z. rotundifolia 40

Soil Organic C status after crop harvest Agroforestry Sole cropping : 0.13 to 0.14%

Agro-horticulture : 0.10 to 0.12%

: 0.08 to 0.11%

Diversified farming systems for various rainfall zones (% area)

Land use (% area) 250-350 350-450 suitability parameters
< 250

450-600

Arable cropping Agro- forestry Agri Horticulture Silvi pasture Livestock (acu/year) B:C ratio Net returns (US$) Gestation period Employment (mandays/year)

25 40 35 1.5-2.0 1.5 -2 140-200 8-6 200-300

30 40 15 15 1.5-2.5 1.5-2.5 200 -400 6-4 300-500

20 40 30 10 2.5 -3.0 2.5 -3 400- 700 4-3 400-600

20 30 40 10 3.0-4.0 2.5 -3.5 700-1000 4-3 500-700

Water Management Based TIs

Rain water harvesting Water conservation In-situ and inter-plot Increased WUE Promotion of Water saving techniques Multiple Water Productivity Less water intensive livestock farming Water-positive knowledge sharing Focus on less water requiring alternative land use systems

TRADITIONAL SYSTEM OF RAIN WATER HARVESTING

Roof top Rain water harvesting Tankas Nadis Khadins Pond Kui Beri

Kui

Traditional Tanka

45

Nadi (Village Pond)

46

Khadin System for Cultivation: An age-old system of water conservation for crop cultivation

Solar pump

Micro-sprinkler system

Drip system

Water tank storage drip system

Surface water storage

Some examples of mitigating technologies in India

Agroforestry z Conservation Agriculture
z

51

Carbon Sequestration potential of some systems

Location Agri silviculture Raipur (Swami & Puri, 2005) Chandigarh (Mittal & Singh, 1989) Coimbatore (Vishwanath et al., 2004) Silvi pasture system Jhansi (Rai et al., 2000)
System Carbon sequestration (Mg/ha/year)

Gmelina based Leucarna based Casuarina based Leucarna based Terminalia based Neem based system Albizia procera based Dalbergia sisso based Prosopis based Acacia based Dalbergia sisso based Eucalyptus based

2.96 0.87 1.45 1.82 1.11 0.80 2.01 2.90 2.36 1.29 1.68 3.41

Karnal (Kaur et al., 2002)

Himalayan foothills(Narain et al., 1998)

52

Conservation Agriculture
Do Not Beat The Land Into Submission-rather Work In Harmony With It

53

Conservation Agriculture
z
z z

z
z z z

Laser assisted precision land levelling zero tillage (ZT) with residues recycling, direct drilling into the residues, direct seeding of rice, brown manuring with Sesbania, unpuddled mechanical transplantation of rice, raised bed planting, crop diversification, and associated component technologies like site-specific nutrient managemen
54

55

FIRB

Seasonal soil moisture pattern

Bed Planting
Conventional Planting

Daily soil moisture pattern

Brown Manuring

Recommended practices

Carbon sequestration potential (Mg C ha-1year-1) Conservation tillage 0.10-0.40 Winter crop cover 0.05-0.20 Soil fertility management 0.05-0.10 Elimination of summer fallows 0.05-0.20 Forest based rotation 0.05-0.20 Use of improved varieties 0.05-0.10 Organic amendments 0.20-0.30 Water table management/Irrigation 0.05-0.10

Lal et al. 1998

National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC)

z z z

z z z

National mission on Sustainable agriculture National mission on Solar Energy National mission on Enhance energy efficiency - Including mandating energy consumption decreases in energy intensive industries (energy-savings certificates) National mission on Sustainable habitat - energy efficiency in urban planning National mission on Water improving water efficiency National mission on Strategic knowledge for climate change private sector initiatives to develop adaptation and mitigation technologies National mission on Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem
61

Ongoing projects
z
z z

z
z

National Bamboo Mission (NBM) National Horticulture Mission (NHM) Conservation in the catchments of River Valley Project & Flood Prone River (RVP & FPR), Rainfed Area Development Programmes (RADP) Reclamations & Development of Alkali & Acid Soils (RDAAS) National progamme on oilseed and many more
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