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P O L L I N G M E M O R A N D UM
INTERESTED PARTIES WPA OPINION RESEARCH OK CD 5 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RACE APRIL 3, 2014
WPA conducted a study of likely Republican Primary voters in Oklahomas Fifth Congressional District. The primary election study consisted of 401 likely Republican Primary voters and was conducted March 26-27, 2014. The full sample has a margin of error equal to 4.9%.
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Mike Turner and Clark Jolley are the most well known candidates in the race. o Turner and Jolley are the only candidates with name recognition above 40%.
Total Favorable Total Unfavorable Name Recognition
Mike Turner Clark Jolley Patrice Douglas Steve Russell Shane Jett
5% 9% 5% 4% 4%
Mike Turner Clark Jolley Patrice Douglas Steve Russell Shane Jett Undecided
4% 16% 8% 8% 7% 56%
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Mike Turner is now positioned second among numerous key groups throughout the district after impressive gains. o Mike Turner has made gains among important subgroups, including Strong Republicans, Independents, Very Conservative voters, Traditional Republicans, Tea Party voters and women.
Turner Support January Turner Support March
Strong GOP Independents Very Conservative Traditional GOP Tea Party Women
5% 3% 5% 6% 5% 5%
Conclusion
The data indicates that Mike Turner is the one candidate positioned as the conservative alternative to Clark Jolley. At present, no candidate, other than Mike Turner, has the name ID, ballot support or campaign resources to compete with Jolley. Mike Turner has shown the ability to connect with voters and his support is on a strong upward trend while other candidates have made little to no gains on the ballot. As the only candidate who is making strides with voters, Mike Turner has shown that he has what is necessary to win the Republican Primary.
Methodology
WPA Opinion Research conducted a study of likely Republican Primary voters in Oklahomas Fifth Congressional District. Respondents were screened to ensure that they were not a member of the news media, a public relations company, or a political campaign. The sample for this survey was stratified based on gender, age, and geography. This methodology allows us to minimize post-survey weighting which can reduce the reliability of survey results. Respondents were contacted by phone via a live telephone operator interview March 26-27. 2014. The study has a sample size of 401 likely Republican Primary voters and a margin of error equal to +4.9%.
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