You are on page 1of 3

Global Perspective. Innovative Research. Superior Results.

P O L L I N G M E M O R A N D UM

TO: FROM: SUBJECT: DATE:

INTERESTED PARTIES WPA OPINION RESEARCH OK CD 5 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RACE APRIL 3, 2014

WPA conducted a study of likely Republican Primary voters in Oklahomas Fifth Congressional District. The primary election study consisted of 401 likely Republican Primary voters and was conducted March 26-27, 2014. The full sample has a margin of error equal to 4.9%.

Candidate Images
Mike Turner and Clark Jolley are the most well known candidates in the race. o Turner and Jolley are the only candidates with name recognition above 40%.
Total Favorable Total Unfavorable Name Recognition

Mike Turner Clark Jolley Patrice Douglas Steve Russell Shane Jett

27% 37% 16% 12% 19%

5% 9% 5% 4% 4%

54% 66% 36% 28% 40%

The Republican Primary Ballot


Clark Jolley holds an early lead in the race, but Mike Turner has gone from last on the ballot to second since late January. o Jolleys advantage in name recognition translates to an early lead over the field. o Mike Turner improved his ballot share by nine points since previous polling in January, placing him firmly in second place as the only candidate to garner any significant change in support. o A plurality of voters remains undecided.
January 26-27 March 26-27

Mike Turner Clark Jolley Patrice Douglas Steve Russell Shane Jett Undecided

4% 16% 8% 8% 7% 56%

13% 18% 5% 8% 7% 49%

324 Second Street, SE Washington, DC 20003 1005 Congress, Ste 495 Austin, TX 78701 1319 Classen Drive Oklahoma City, OK 73103 202.470.6300 @wparesearch www.wparesearch.com

2014 WPA Opinion Research Do not copy or distribute without permission

Mike Turner is now positioned second among numerous key groups throughout the district after impressive gains. o Mike Turner has made gains among important subgroups, including Strong Republicans, Independents, Very Conservative voters, Traditional Republicans, Tea Party voters and women.
Turner Support January Turner Support March

Strong GOP Independents Very Conservative Traditional GOP Tea Party Women

5% 3% 5% 6% 5% 5%

14% 16% 12% 14% 13% 13%

Conclusion
The data indicates that Mike Turner is the one candidate positioned as the conservative alternative to Clark Jolley. At present, no candidate, other than Mike Turner, has the name ID, ballot support or campaign resources to compete with Jolley. Mike Turner has shown the ability to connect with voters and his support is on a strong upward trend while other candidates have made little to no gains on the ballot. As the only candidate who is making strides with voters, Mike Turner has shown that he has what is necessary to win the Republican Primary.

Methodology
WPA Opinion Research conducted a study of likely Republican Primary voters in Oklahomas Fifth Congressional District. Respondents were screened to ensure that they were not a member of the news media, a public relations company, or a political campaign. The sample for this survey was stratified based on gender, age, and geography. This methodology allows us to minimize post-survey weighting which can reduce the reliability of survey results. Respondents were contacted by phone via a live telephone operator interview March 26-27. 2014. The study has a sample size of 401 likely Republican Primary voters and a margin of error equal to +4.9%.

About Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research


Since 1998, WPA Opinion Research has been a leading provider of political polling for campaigns from Governor and U.S. Senate to Mayor and City Council in all 50 states and several foreign countries. In the 2011-2012 election cycle, even with Obama at the top of the ticket, more than 65% of WPA direct campaign clients won. WPA has been nationally recognized for our efforts to provide cutting edge research to help our clients win. The American Association of Political Consultants (AAPC) awarded a Pollie to WPA for our Predictive Analytics. The award highlighted WPAs Adaptive Sampling and Predictive Analytics methodologies which allowed us to buck national GOP polling trends and deliver industry-leading results. In rankings released by Nate Silvers fivethirtyeight.com of 2008 election data, Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research was statistically tied as the most accurate partisan pollster and we find that WPA was significantly more accurate than other partisan pollsters.

Confidential

Page 2 of 3

4/3/2014

2014 WPA Opinion Research Do not copy or distribute without permission

Confidential

Page 3 of 3

4/3/2014

You might also like