Networking Techniques

Critical path Method

Project Scheduling and Control Techniques

Gantt Chart Critical Path Method (CPM) Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

CPM calculation
Path
A connected sequence q of activities leading g from the starting event to the ending event

Critical Path
The longest path (time); determines the project duration

Critical Activities
All of the activities that make up the critical path

CPM calculation
Predecessor activity
The activity that immediately come before another activity without any intervening activity.

Successor activity y
The activity that immediately follow another activity without any intervening activity.

Forward Pass
Earliest Start Time (ES) earliest li time i an activity i i can start ES = maximum EF of immediate predecessors Earliest finish time (EF) earliest time an activity can finish earliest start time plus activity time EF= ES + t Latest Start Time (LS) Latest time an activity can start without delaying critical path time LS= LF - t Latest finish time (LF) y can be completed p without delaying y g critical Latest time an activity path time LS = minimum LS of immediate predecessors
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Backward Pass

CPM analysis
Draw the CPM network Analyze the paths through the network Determine the float for each activity Compute the activitys float float = LS - ES = LF - EF Float is the maximum amount of time that the activity can be delay in its completion before it becomes a critical activity, i.e., delays completion of the project Find the critical path is that the sequence of activities and events where there is no slack slack i.e.. i e Zero slack Longest path through a network Find the p project j duration is minimum project p j completion p time
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CPM Example:
CPM Network f, 15 a, 6 g, 17 i, 6 b, 8 d, 13 c, 5 e, 9
7

h, 9

j, 12

CPM Example
ES and EF Times
f, 15 g, 17 i, 6 h, 9

a, 6 0 6 b, 8 0 8 c, 5 0 5

d, 13

j, 12

e, 9
8

CPM Example
ES and EF Times
a, 6 0 6 b, 8 0 8 c, 5 0 5 d, 13 8 21 e, 9 5 14
9

f, 15 6 21 g, 17 6 23 i, 6 h, 9

j, 12

CPM Example
ES and EF Times
a, 6 0 6 b, 8 0 8 c, 5 0 5 d, 13 8 21 e, 9 5 14 j, 12 21 33 Projects j EF = 33
10

f, 15 6 21 g, 17 6 23 i, 6 23 29 h, 9 21 30

CPM Example
LS and LF Times
a, 6 0 6 b, 8 0 8 c, 5 0 5 f, 15 6 21 g, 17 6 23 i, 6 i 23 29 27 33 h 9 h, 21 30 24 33

d, 13 8 21 e, 9 5 14

j, 12 21 33 21 33

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CPM Example
LS and LF Times
f, 15 6 21 9 24 g, 17 6 23 10 27 d, 13 8 21 8 21 e, 9 5 14 12 21

a, 6 0 6 4 10 b, 8 0 8 0 8 c, 5 0 5 7 12

i, 6 i 23 29 27 33

h 9 h, 21 30 24 33

j, 12 21 33 21 33

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CPM Example
Float Fl t
f, 15 3 6 21 9 24 g, 17 4 6 23 10 27 d, 13 0 8 21 8 21 e, 9 7 5 14 12 21 h 9 h, 3 21 30 24 33

a, 6 3 0 6 3 9 b, 8 0 0 8 0 8 c, 5 7 0 5 7 12

i, 6 i 4 23 29 27 33

j, 12 0 21 33 21 33

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CPM Example
Critical Path
f, 15 g, 17 i, 6 b, 8 d, 13 c, 5 e, 9
14

a, 6

h, 9

j, 12

QUESTIONS?

PERT
PERT is based on the assumption that an activitys activity s duration follows a probability distribution instead of being a single value Three time estimates are required to compute the parameters of an activitys duration distribution: pessimistic time (tp ) - the time the activity would take if things did not go well most likely time (tm ) - the consensus best estimate of the activitys duration optimistic time (to ) - the time the activity would take if things did go well Mean (expected ( time): ) te =

tp + 4 tm + to
6
2

Variance: Vt = = darla/smbs/vit
2

tp - to
6
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PERT analysis y
Draw the network. Analyze the paths through the network and find the critical path. The length of the critical path is the mean of the project duration probability distribution which is assumed to be normal The Th standard t d d deviation d i ti of f the th project j t duration d ti probability b bilit distribution is computed by adding the variances of the critical activities (all of the activities that make up the critical path) and taking the square root of that sum Probability computations can now be made using the normal distribution table. table

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Probability computation
Determine p probability y that p project j is completed p within specified p time x- where = tp = project mean time = project standard mean time x = (p (proposed p ) specified p time Z=

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Normal Distribution of Project Time

Probability

= tp

Time e
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PERT Example
Immed. I d Optimistic O ti i ti Most M t Likely Lik l Pessimistic P i i ti Activity Predec. Time (Hr.) Time (Hr.) Time (Hr.) A -4 6 8 B -1 4.5 5 C A 3 3 3 D A 4 5 6 E A 0.5 1 1.5 F B,C 3 4 5 G B,C 1 1.5 5 H E,F 5 6 7 I E,F 2 5 8 J D D,H H 2 2.5 5 2 2.75 75 4 4.5 5 K G,I 3 5 7 20

PERT Example PERT Network

D

C B F G I K

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PERT Example
A ti it Activity
A B C D E F G H I J K

E Expected t d Time Ti
6 4 3 5 1 4 2 6 5 3 5

V i Variance
4/9 4/9 0 1/9 1/36 1/9 4/9 1/9 1 1/9 4/9
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PERT Example p
Activity
A B C D E F G H I J K

ES
0 0 6 6 6 9 9 13 13 19 18

EF
6 4 9 11 7 13 11 19 18 22 23

LS
0 5 6 15 12 9 16 14 13 20 18

LF
6 9 9 20 13 13 18 20 18 23 23

Slack
0 *critical 5 0* 9 6 0* 7 1 0* 1 0*
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PERT Example p Vpath = VA + VC + VF + VI + VK = 4/9 + 0 + 1/9 + 1 + 4/9 = 2 path = 1.414 z = (24 - 23)/ = (24-23)/1.414 (24 23)/1 414 = .71 71 From the Standard Normal Distribution table: P(z < .71) = .5 + .2612 = .7612
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PROJECT COST

Cost consideration in project

Project managers may have the option or requirement to crash the project, or accelerate the completion of the project. This is accomplished p by y reducing g the length g of the critical p path(s). () The length of the critical path is reduced by reducing the duration of the activities on the critical path. If each h activity ti it requires i the th expenditure dit of f an amount t of f money to t reduce its duration by one unit of time, then the project manager selects the least cost critical activity, reduces it by one time unit, and d traces t that th t change h through th h the th remainder i d of f the th network. t k As a result of a reduction in an activitys time, a new critical path may be created. When there is more than one critical path, each of the critical paths must be reduced. further the If the length of the project needs to be reduced further, process is repeated.
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Project Crashing
Crashing reducing project time by expending additional resources Crash time an amount of time an activity is reduced Crash cost cost of reducing activity time Goal reduce project duration at minimum cost

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Activity crashing

Crash cost

Crashing activity Slope = crash cost per unit time Normal Activity Normal time Crash time Activity time
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Normal cost

 Crashing costs increase as project duration decreases Indirect costs increase as project duration increases Reduce project length as long as crashing costs are less than indirect costs

Time-Cost Relationship

Time-Cost Tradeoff
Min total cost = optimal project time T t l project Total j t cost t Indirect cost

Direct cost time

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Project Crashing example

2 8 1
12

4
12

7 4 3 4 6 4

5 4

30

Time Cost data

Activity Normal ti time 1 12 2 8 3 4 4 12 5 4 6 4 7 4 Normal cost t Rs R 3000 2000 4000 50000 500 500 1500 75000 Crash ti time 7 5 3 9 1 1 3 Crash cost t Rs R 5000 3500 7000 71000 1100 1100 22000 110700 Allowable crash h ti time 5 3 1 3 3 3 1 slope 400 500 3000 7000 200 200 7000

31

R500 2 8 1
12

R7000 4
12

Project duration = 36
R700 7 4

From..

R400

3 4 R3000

5 4 R200

6 4 R200 R500 2 8 R7000 4

12

R700 7 4

To.. Project duration = 31 Additional cost = R2000

1
7

R400

3 4 R3000

5 4 R200

6 4 R200
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Benefits of CPM/PERT
Useful at many stages of project management Mathematically simple Give critical path and slack time P id project Provide j t documentation d t ti Useful in monitoring costs

CPM/PERT can answer the h f following ll i i important questions:

How long l will ill the h entire i project j take k to be b completed? l d? What h are the h risks involved? project j which could Which are the critical activities or tasks in the p delay the entire project if they were not completed on time? Is the project on schedule, behind schedule or ahead of schedule? If the project has to be finished earlier than planned, planned what is the best way to do this at the least cost? 33

Limitations to CPM/PERT
Clearly defined, independent and stable activities Specified precedence relationships Over emphasis on critical paths Deterministic CPM model Activity time estimates are subjective and depend on judgment PERT assumes a beta distribution for these time estimates, estimates but the actual distribution may be different y underestimates the expected p project p j PERT consistently completion time due to alternate paths becoming critical

To overcome the limitation, Monte Carlo simulations can be performed on the network to eliminate the optimistic bias
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Computer p Software for Project Management

Microsoft Project (Microsoft Corp.) MacProject j (Claris Corp.) ( p) PowerProject (ASTA Development Inc.) j Planner ( (Primavera) ) Primavera Project Project Scheduler (Scitor Corp.) Project Workbench (ABT Corp.) Corp )

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Practice Example
A social project manager is faced with a project with the following activities: Activity Description Social work team to live in village Social research team to do survey y Analyse results of survey E t bli h mother Establish th & child hild health h lth program Establish rural credit programme Carry out immunization of under fives Duration 5w 12w 5w 14 14w 15w 4w

Draw network diagram and show the critical path. path Calculate project duration.

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Practice problem
Activity y 1-2 1-3 3-4 2-4 3-5 4-5 Description p Social work team to live in village Social research team to do survey Analyse results of survey Establish mother & child health program Establish rural credit programme Carry out immunization of under fives 4 5 3
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Duration 5w 12w 5w 14w 15w 4w

2 1

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