Proceedings of the International Symposium on

Sustainable Systems and Technologies, v2 (2014)

Factors Governing Total Water Withdrawal for U.S. Industrial Sectors
for 1997 to 2030

Hui Wang, Mitchell J . Small, David A. Dzombak
huiw1@andrew.cmu.edu;ms35@andrew.cmu.edu;dzombak@andrew.cmu.edu
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Steinbrenner Institute for Environmental Education and Research
Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA

Extended Abstract
U.S. total water withdrawal has grown slowly since 1980, while the U.S. population and per
capita GDP increased about twice and three times, respectively, from 1950 to 2005. More water
is required to support the growth of population and development of economy, which implies that
other factors contributed to decreases in U.S. total water withdrawal.

The economic input-output
life cycle assessment (EIO-LCA) model was used to estimate the total water withdrawal for U.S.
industrial sectors for 1997 and 2002, which are the most recently reported years for economic
input-output (EIO) table by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). A 3% increase in total
water withdrawal was exhibited during the period of 1997- 2002. The change in total water
withdrawal for U.S. industrial sectors during the five years was decomposed into changes in
population, GDP per capita, water use intensity, production structure and consumption patterns.
The method of structural decomposition analysis (SDA) was applied to quantify the contribution
of each factor to the change in total water withdrawal for industrial sectors from 1997 to 2002.
Changes in population, GDP per capita and water use intensity caused increased water
withdrawals for the industrial sectors, while the changes in economic production structure and
consumption patterns offset the expected increase in water withdrawal. The change in
consumption patterns was the largest net contributor to the change in U.S. total water
withdrawal, and was significantly influenced by decreased final demand for agricultural products
and power generation. The overall contribution of increases in population and GDP per capita to
change in water withdrawal for the industrial sectors were modest. The EIO-LCA model was
extended to project the extent of increased water demand for U.S. industrial sectors across
various scenarios for technology, population and economic growth for 2013-2030. Four
scenarios were designed for each of population, GDP per capita, and water use intensity based
upon the available predictions and historical data, remaining production structure and
consumption patterns constant at 2012 level. The total water withdrawal for U.S. industrial
sectors across different scenarios range from 70 to 430 trillion gallons in 2030, and the largest
projected water withdrawal is 2.5 times the 2005 water withdrawal. The median of total water
withdrawals during the period of 2013-2030 follow a continuous increasing trend, with an
average annual growth rate of 0.5%. The uncertainty in GDP per capita and water use intensity
are the two most significant contributors to the uncertainty in projected future total water
withdrawals for U.S. industrial sectors.




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