Name: MK Bahri

Comments on your feedback:

a. Lacks vs ignore and such as vs including: checking my writing to use them
appropriately
b. available methods for reducing supply chain uncertainty: checking whether my
writing gives any clear-meaning phrases.
2.Research backgrounds
This section explains some study backgrounds such as detections of climate change
rice statistics and the rice supply chain. !n the first section the past and pro"ections of
climate in !ndonesian and #est $usa Tenggara %#$T& are explained. The detection of
climate change in !ndonesian and in #$T is also discussed. 's this study focuses on
climate change impacts on #$T(s rice supply chain some statistics about #$T such as
rice production rice consumption and members of the rice supply chain are explained in the
next section. %)ue to two-page maximum rice statistics in #$T and the pictures are
eliminated&.
2.1 Indonesian climate: ast and !ro"ections
This section explains historical climate and future climate in !ndonesia and #$T
such as precipitation and temperature. This section also explains the statistical evidence of
climate change in !ndonesia and in #$T. !n order to detect of climate change in !ndonesia
and #$T temperature and rainfall changes between the baseline and the recent period are
statistically compared. !f the temperature or rainfall change between the baseline and the
recent period is statistically different this means that climate change has occurred.
*therwise climate change has not occurred.
+tatistics show that !ndonesia has experienced a significant increase of temperature
and insignificant rainfall change since the mid-,-
th
century. The annual mean of !ndonesian
rainfall
.
in the baseline period ./0--./1/ was about ,23,4,/5 mm6year and in the current
period ./2--,--/ was about ,1254,1, mm6year. Likewise the !ndonesian mean
temperature during the baseline period ./0--./1/ was about ,0.54-..1
o
7 and the mean
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)ata for !ndonesian rainfall and temperature is from 8$9! climate centre %http://climexp.knmi.nl&
1
temperature in the recent period ./2--,--/ was about ,54-..5
-
7. The difference of the
annual mean rainfall between the periods is statistically insignificant
,
while the difference
of the annual temperature is statistically significant. Thus !ndonesia has experienced
climate change as the temperature change is statistically different between the period ./0--
./1/ and the period ./2--,--/.
!n case of climate in #$T figure . shows the monthly rainfall in two periods: the
baseline period %./0.-./2-& and the recent period %./2.-,-.-&. 'mong all of the monthly
rainfall only the rainfall change in 'pril %about ..,4;3 mm in the baseline and about
.03405 mm in the current period& is significantly different. 7onversely there are
insignificant differences of the rainfall variability between both periods.
<igure , shows the monthly mean temperatures in #$T for both periods: the
baseline periods %./1;-,--3& and the recent period %,--;-,-.3&
3
. =ased on a statistical test
a change in the 9arch mean temperature is statistically significant %about ,5.24-.1
o
7 in the
baseline and about ,14-.5
o
7 in the current period&. >owever among all of the monthly
mean temperatures there are insignificant differences of temperature variability between
both periods. Therefore #$T has experienced climate change owing to significant changes
in rainfall and temperature.
!n the case of the pro"ection of temperature figure 3 shows that !ndonesia is
pro"ected to experience higher temperatures in the future. 'ccording to !?77 %,-.3&
!ndonesia is pro"ected to experience an increase of the mean temperature in the range of
-.3-..,
o
7 by ,-30 and in the range of -.2-,.1
o
7 by ,.--.
's shown in figure ; !ndonesia is pro"ected to experience mixed and relatively
insignificant rainfall change %!?77 ,-.3&. The total !ndonesian rainfall is pro"ected to
change between -.@ and .3@ by ,-;5 and between -, @ and .2@ by ,.--. >owever
2
'll statistical tests for temperature and rainfall changes are based on t-test %the significance level is -.-0& and statistical
tests for temperature and rainfall variability are based on Levene(s tests %the significance level is -.-0&
3
The baseline and the recent period of temperature %#$T& is shorter than those periods for rainfall owing to limited data
2
southern !ndonesia such as Aava and #$T is pro"ected to experience the average decrease
of rainfall about -0@ by ,.--
;
.
)ata shows that !ndonesia and #$T have experienced climate change. 's
agriculture highly depends on climate climate change could negatively affect agriculture.
'mong agriculture products rice is the staple food and the highest consumed food in #$T
so that the rice supply chain is highly vulnerable to climate change. !n case of #$T this
region is pro"ected to experience a decrease of rainfall and an increase of temperature. !n
other words compared to other !ndonesian regions the rice supply chain in #$T can be
negatively influenced by two climatic changes: a higher temperature and a lower
precipitation. !n conclusion understanding of the impacts of climate change on the rice
supply chain in #$T should be sought to reduce the negative impacts.
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+outhern !ndonesia is influenced by 'ustralian 9aritime 9onsoon that leads to a lower rainfall while northern !ndonesia
is influenced by Bast 'sian and !ndian 9onsoon that lead to a higher precipitation %!?77 ,-.3&.
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Cice is the staple food for more than a half of the world population %Dnanamanickam
,--/&. !n the last three decades the rice production has doubled %because of its new
varieties& and it is predicted that about 0 billion people will depend on rice by ,-,0
%Dnanamanickam ,--/&. Thus a sustainable increase in the rice production is important
and this is possible to be achieved.
Cice grows well within its optimum temperature %Eoshida ./2.&. !n general rice yields are
higher in the rice optimum temperature than either in lower or higher temperatures. !n other
words rice yields gradually increase up to their temperature thresholds but their yields tend
to decline above the tresholds %'ckerman F +tanton ,-.,: Eoshida ./2.&.
+ince the recent maximum temperature is close to the threshold of rice the rice is highly
vulnerable to climate change %)evkota ,-..&. 'gain a higher yield of crops because of a
higher 7*
,
concentration is clearly limited %'ckerman F +tanton ,-.,& since crops
reGuire other inputs to support photosynthesis such as nitrogen and water. !n addition sea
level rise due to climate change can inundate farming area particularly low-lying areas. !t
seems that a positive impact of climate change on rice %crop& yields could be negated by its
negative impacts.
7limate change and climate variability can influence the rice supply chain. Lower
precipitation and higher temperatures could reduce rice yields so that the rice supply chain
could not provide sufficient rice supply. 's a higher precipitation could increase paddy
moisture %leads to a longer paddy-drying time& the rice supply chain may delay in
supplying rice into market. Therefore this study will investigate impacts of climate change
on the rice supply chain because of sea level rise rainfall and temperature changes.
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!n order to explore impacts of climate change on the rice supply chain the system dynamics
approach will be combined with a statistical model and the global climate models %D79s&.
D79s will provide inputs such as temperature precipitation and sea level rise and
statistical models will provide the input of rice yields. <ollowing the simulation of the
system dynamics model alternatives to reduce the impacts will be assessed.
This study will be conducted in #est $usa Tenggara %#$T& because of some important
reasons:
1. There is a small gap between the national paddy output and the national paddy
demand: about , @ a year %>adi F +usilowati ,-..: Lantarsih #idodo )arwanto
Lestari F ?aramita ,-..&. =ecause of this the region should fulfil its rice demand by
its own rice supply. This is important as the #$T(s closest regions =ali and Bast
$usa Tenggara could not supply rice for #$T %these regions do not have appropriate
rice surplus&.
2. The region is a main rice supplier of the closest regions in eastern !ndonesia such as
Bast $usa Tenggara and =ali %Lantarsih et al. ,-..&. Lantarsih et al. %,-..& claim that
rice-surplus provinces should distribute their rice surplus to their closest region to
minimiHe the distribution cost. +ince rice is the staple food %/- @ of !ndonesian
consume rice including the poor& and eastern !ndonesia is a low-income region
providing affordable rice is crucial.
3. The !ndonesian government has encouraged the region to increase its paddy
production: supporting the national program of rice self-sufficiency. This is because
Aava the greatest rice producer has experienced a significant land conversion owing to
an increase of population %=adan ?enelitian dan ?engembangan ?ertanian ,--0&.
;. !n terms of the human development index and the poverty level this region sits
consecutively in position 3, and ,/ among 33 !ndonesian provinces %?emerintah $usa
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Tenggara =arat ,-.-&. This means that the region tends to have low adaptive capacity
to anticipate climate change impacts.
5. 'griculture contributes to about ,0@ of economic output and ;0@ of total
employment in this region %=?+ $T= ,-.-&.
6. This region is vulnerable to climate variability particularly Bl-$ino %<alcon $aylor
+mith F =urke ,--;&. Bl-$ino has evidently decreased rice production. <or instance
in .//16.//2 ,--- and 2--- hectare rice areas experienced drought and harvest
failure consecutively %Easin 9ansur !dris F +uriadi ,--;&. +tatistics shows that
more than 0---- hectare rice areas experienced droughts and harvest failures in ,--1
and ,-.- due to droughts %)inas ?ertanian $usa Tenggara =arat ,-.,&.
1. This study can be a model to anticipate climate change impacts on the rice supply
chain in !ndonesia.
2. The reGuired data for this research is easier to access as the researcher is from #$T.
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