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TODAYS CHANAKYA

(A Political Research Organisation)


New Delhi, India















SURPRISE FINDINGS WHICH NO ONE ELSE CAN PREDICT Pg. 1 of 12
WE ARE ALWAYS FIRST AND REMAIN FIRST IN ACCURACY
WE ARE HAVING THE ARTS OF WINNING ELECTIONS TODAYS CHANAKYA
12
th
May 2014 Loksabha Elections 2014 Exit & Post Poll Pages - 12

Modi wave creates history
BJP set to break all its records
Congress falls to its lowest tally ever

All India seat forecast (543 seats)
BJP 291 14 (Plus/Minus 14) Seats NDA 340 14 (Plus/Minus 14) Seats
Cong 57 9 (Plus/Minus 9) Seats UPA 70 9 (Plus/Minus 9) Seats
Others 133 11 (Plus/Minus 11) Seats

Methodology :
Todays Chanakya carried out an Exit Poll on the day of polling in respective
state in each phase & post poll study in each phase (post poll for 12 May
polling phase is not included in this analysis).

The entire analysis is based on our Seven Layer Spectrum Model, designed
especially for Indian Election. The survey covers 22 states including Delhi & one
union territory. Stratified sampling technique was primarily used to make
homogenous subgroups. With the help of systematic random sampling, all
possible sampling error was reduced to obtain a homogenous representative
sample. Data were collected to the profile of all adults age 18 + including by
age, Sex, Social class, household, work status, literacy level, etc. Proper weights
were assigned so that collected data reflects the socio economic conditions of
that state / region. The margin of sampling error is 3.6 percentage points
with 95% confidence level. Respondents of Orissa & Andhra Pradesh were
simultaneously asked for both assembly elections & Lok Sabha elections. Total
respondent sample size was 38984.

TODAYS CHANAKYA
(A Political Research Organisation)
New Delhi, India















SURPRISE FINDINGS WHICH NO ONE ELSE CAN PREDICT Pg. 2 of 12
WE ARE ALWAYS FIRST AND REMAIN FIRST IN ACCURACY
WE ARE HAVING THE ARTS OF WINNING ELECTIONS TODAYS CHANAKYA
Loksabha Elections 2014 Exit & Post Poll






Chandigarh (1 Seat)
Party
Vote 2014
(Forecast)
Seat 2014 (Forecast)
BJP 36% 3% 1 Seat
Congress 27% 3% -
AAP 32% 3% -
Others 5% 2% -



ttn :

Chhattisgarh (11 Seats)
Party
Vote 2014
(Forecast)
Seat 2014 (Forecast)
BJP 44% 3% 10 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats
Congress 35% 3% 1 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats
AAP 5% 2% -
Others 16% 3% -




Important:
1. Please dont forget to put Seat Range (Plus / Minus)
2. The seat tally after using the (Plus / Minus) range will neither exceed the total seats in
the respective state nor will be less than zero.
3. Please note that the real numbers of seats in each state & nationwide projection should
not be split in any range because our real number of seats is epicenter of our actual
projection. Please display the figures as we have mentioned along with the plus/minus
range.


TODAYS CHANAKYA
(A Political Research Organisation)
New Delhi, India















SURPRISE FINDINGS WHICH NO ONE ELSE CAN PREDICT Pg. 3 of 12
WE ARE ALWAYS FIRST AND REMAIN FIRST IN ACCURACY
WE ARE HAVING THE ARTS OF WINNING ELECTIONS TODAYS CHANAKYA
Loksabha Elections 2014 Exit & Post Poll





Delhi (7 Seats)
Party
Vote 2014
(Forecast)
Seat 2014 (Forecast)
BJP 39% 3% 7 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats
AAP 31% 3% 0 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats
Congress 20% 3% -
Others 10% 3% -






Goa (2 Seats)
Party
Vote 2014
(Forecast)
Seat 2014 (Forecast)
BJP 47% 3% 2 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats
Congress 38% 3% 0 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats
Others 15% 3% -



Important:
1. Please dont forget to put Seat Range (Plus / Minus)
2. The seat tally after using the (Plus / Minus) range will neither exceed the total seats in
the respective state nor will be less than zero.
3. Please note that the real numbers of seats in each state & nationwide projection should
not be split in any range because our real number of seats is epicenter of our actual
projection. Please display the figures as we have mentioned along with the plus/minus
range.



TODAYS CHANAKYA
(A Political Research Organisation)
New Delhi, India















SURPRISE FINDINGS WHICH NO ONE ELSE CAN PREDICT Pg. 4 of 12
WE ARE ALWAYS FIRST AND REMAIN FIRST IN ACCURACY
WE ARE HAVING THE ARTS OF WINNING ELECTIONS TODAYS CHANAKYA
Loksabha Elections 2014 Exit & Post Poll





Gujarat (26 Seats)
Party
Vote 2014
(Forecast)
Seat 2014 (Forecast)
BJP 45% 3% 26 3 (Plus / Minus 3) Seats
Congress 34% 3% 0 3 (Plus / Minus 3) Seats
AAP 6% 2% -
Others 15% 3% -




Haryana (10 Seats)
Party
Vote 2014
(Forecast)
Seat 2014 (Forecast)
BJP+ 35% 3% 8 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats
Congress 26% 3% 1 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats
INLD 21% 3% 1 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats
AAP 9% 2% -
Others 9% 3% -



Important:
1. Please dont forget to put Seat Range (Plus / Minus)
2. The seat tally after using the (Plus / Minus) range will neither exceed the total seats in
the respective state nor will be less than zero.
3. Please note that the real numbers of seats in each state & nationwide projection should
not be split in any range because our real number of seats is epicenter of our actual
projection. Please display the figures as we have mentioned along with the plus/minus
range.


TODAYS CHANAKYA
(A Political Research Organisation)
New Delhi, India















SURPRISE FINDINGS WHICH NO ONE ELSE CAN PREDICT Pg. 5 of 12
WE ARE ALWAYS FIRST AND REMAIN FIRST IN ACCURACY
WE ARE HAVING THE ARTS OF WINNING ELECTIONS TODAYS CHANAKYA
Loksabha Elections 2014 Exit & Post Poll



Himachal (4 Seats)
Party
Vote 2014
(Forecast)
Seat 2014 (Forecast)
BJP 48% 3% 4 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats
Congress 37% 3% 0 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats
AAP 4% 2% -
Others 11% 3% -



Kerala (20 Seats)
Party
Vote 2014
(Forecast)
Seat 2014 (Forecast)
UDF 39% 3% 12 3 (Plus / Minus 3) Seats
LDF 35% 3% 8 3 (Plus / Minus 3) Seats
BJP 14% 3% -
AAP 4% 2% -
Others 8% 2% -


Important:
1. Please dont forget to put Seat Range (Plus / Minus)
2. The seat tally after using the (Plus / Minus) range will neither exceed the total seats in
the respective state nor will be less than zero.
3. Please note that the real numbers of seats in each state & nationwide projection should
not be split in any range because our real number of seats is epicenter of our actual
projection. Please display the figures as we have mentioned along with the plus/minus
range.






TODAYS CHANAKYA
(A Political Research Organisation)
New Delhi, India















SURPRISE FINDINGS WHICH NO ONE ELSE CAN PREDICT Pg. 6 of 12
WE ARE ALWAYS FIRST AND REMAIN FIRST IN ACCURACY
WE ARE HAVING THE ARTS OF WINNING ELECTIONS TODAYS CHANAKYA
Loksabha Elections 2014 Exit & Post Poll






Madhya Pradesh (29 Seats)
Party
Vote 2014
(Forecast)
Seat 2014 (Forecast)
BJP 47% 3% 26 3 (Plus / Minus 3) Seats
Congress 35% 3% 3 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats
Others 18% 3% -






Maharashtra (48 Seats)
Party
Vote 2014
(Forecast)
Seat 2014 (Forecast)
BJP+ 46% 3% 39 4 (Plus / Minus 4) Seats
Congress+ 35% 3% 9 3 (Plus / Minus 3) Seats
AAP 5% 2% -
Others 14% 3% -


Important:
1. Please dont forget to put Seat Range (Plus / Minus)
2. The seat tally after using the (Plus / Minus) range will neither exceed the total seats in
the respective state nor will be less than zero.
3. Please note that the real numbers of seats in each state & nationwide projection should
not be split in any range because our real number of seats is epicenter of our actual
projection. Please display the figures as we have mentioned along with the plus/minus
range.




TODAYS CHANAKYA
(A Political Research Organisation)
New Delhi, India















SURPRISE FINDINGS WHICH NO ONE ELSE CAN PREDICT Pg. 7 of 12
WE ARE ALWAYS FIRST AND REMAIN FIRST IN ACCURACY
WE ARE HAVING THE ARTS OF WINNING ELECTIONS TODAYS CHANAKYA
Loksabha Elections 2014 Exit & Post Poll





Rajasthan (25 Seats)
Party
Vote 2014
(Forecast)
Seat 2014 (Forecast)
BJP 47% 3% 25 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats
Congress 35% 3% 0 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats
AAP 4% 2% -
Others 14% 3% -





Tamil Nadu (39 Seats)
Party
Vote 2014
(Forecast)
Seat 2014 (Forecast)
AIADMK 33% 3% 27 4 (Plus / Minus 4) Seats
DMK 25% 3% 5 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats
BJP+ 27% 3% 7 3 (Plus / Minus 3) Seats
Congress 8% 2% -
Others 7% 3% -

Important:
1. Please dont forget to put Seat Range (Plus / Minus)
2. The seat tally after using the (Plus / Minus) range will neither exceed the total seats in
the respective state nor will be less than zero.
3. Please note that the real numbers of seats in each state & nationwide projection should
not be split in any range because our real number of seats is epicenter of our actual
projection. Please display the figures as we have mentioned along with the plus/minus
range.



TODAYS CHANAKYA
(A Political Research Organisation)
New Delhi, India















SURPRISE FINDINGS WHICH NO ONE ELSE CAN PREDICT Pg. 8 of 12
WE ARE ALWAYS FIRST AND REMAIN FIRST IN ACCURACY
WE ARE HAVING THE ARTS OF WINNING ELECTIONS TODAYS CHANAKYA
Loksabha Elections 2014 Exit & Post Poll




Uttarakhand (5 Seats)
Party
Vote 2014
(Forecast)
Seat 2014 (Forecast)
BJP 49% 3% 5 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats
Congress 37% 3% 0 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats
Others 14% 3% -




Assam (14 seats)
Party
Vote 2014
(Forecast)
Seat 2014 (Forecast)
BJP 43% 3% 8 3 (Plus / Minus 3) Seats
Congress 37% 3% 4 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats
Others 20% 3% 2 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats




Important:
1. Please dont forget to put Seat Range (Plus / Minus)
2. The seat tally after using the (Plus / Minus) range will neither exceed the total seats in
the respective state nor will be less than zero.
3. Please note that the real numbers of seats in each state & nationwide projection should
not be split in any range because our real number of seats is epicenter of our actual
projection. Please display the figures as we have mentioned along with the plus/minus
range.







TODAYS CHANAKYA
(A Political Research Organisation)
New Delhi, India















SURPRISE FINDINGS WHICH NO ONE ELSE CAN PREDICT Pg. 9 of 12
WE ARE ALWAYS FIRST AND REMAIN FIRST IN ACCURACY
WE ARE HAVING THE ARTS OF WINNING ELECTIONS TODAYS CHANAKYA
Loksabha Elections 2014 Exit & Post Poll




West Bengal (42 Seats)
Party
Vote 2014
(Forecast)
Seat 2014 (Forecast)
AITC 34% 3% 25 4 (Plus / Minus 4) Seats
BJP 24% 3% 8 4 (Plus / Minus 4) Seats
CPI / CPM 21% 3% 4 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats
Congress 15% 3% 5 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats
Others 6% 2% -




Bihar (40 Seats)
Party
Vote 2014
(Forecast)
Seat 2014 (Forecast)
BJP+ 38% 3% 31 4 (Plus / Minus 4) Seats
RJD + Congress 29% 3% 9 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats
JDU 19% 3% 0 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats
AAP 4% 2% -
Others 10% 3% -


Important:
1. Please dont forget to put Seat Range (Plus / Minus)
2. The seat tally after using the (Plus / Minus) range will neither exceed the total seats in
the respective state nor will be less than zero.
3. Please note that the real numbers of seats in each state & nationwide projection should
not be split in any range because our real number of seats is epicenter of our actual
projection. Please display the figures as we have mentioned along with the plus/minus
range.


TODAYS CHANAKYA
(A Political Research Organisation)
New Delhi, India















SURPRISE FINDINGS WHICH NO ONE ELSE CAN PREDICT Pg. 10 of 12
WE ARE ALWAYS FIRST AND REMAIN FIRST IN ACCURACY
WE ARE HAVING THE ARTS OF WINNING ELECTIONS TODAYS CHANAKYA
Loksabha Elections 2014 Exit & Post Poll





Jharkhand (14 Seats)
Party
Vote 2014
(Forecast)
Seat 2014 (Forecast)
BJP 36% 3% 13 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats
Congress+ 25% 3% 0 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats
JVM 18% 3% 1 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats
AAP 4% 2% -
Others 17% 3% -





Karnataka (28 Seats)
Party
Vote 2014
(Forecast)
Seat 2014 (Forecast)
BJP 42% 3% 20 3 (Plus / Minus 3) Seats
Congress 35% 3% 6 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats
JDS 15% 3% 2 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats
Others 8% 2% -

Important:
1. Please dont forget to put Seat Range (Plus / Minus)
2. The seat tally after using the (Plus / Minus) range will neither exceed the total seats in
the respective state nor will be less than zero.
3. Please note that the real numbers of seats in each state & nationwide projection should
not be split in any range because our real number of seats is epicenter of our actual
projection. Please display the figures as we have mentioned along with the plus/minus
range.



TODAYS CHANAKYA
(A Political Research Organisation)
New Delhi, India















SURPRISE FINDINGS WHICH NO ONE ELSE CAN PREDICT Pg. 11 of 12
WE ARE ALWAYS FIRST AND REMAIN FIRST IN ACCURACY
WE ARE HAVING THE ARTS OF WINNING ELECTIONS TODAYS CHANAKYA
Loksabha Elections 2014 Exit & Post Poll





Odisha (21 Seats)
Party
Vote 2014
(Forecast)
Seat 2014 (Forecast)
BJD 38% 3% 12 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats
BJP 35% 3% 8 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats
Congress 20% 3% 1 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats
Others 7% 2% -







Punjab (13 Seats)
Party
Vote 2014
(Forecast)
Seat 2014 (Forecast)
AAP 32% 3% 5 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats
Congress+ 27% 3% 3 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats
BJP+ 29% 3% 5 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats
Others 12% 3% -

Important:
1. Please dont forget to put Seat Range (Plus / Minus)
2. The seat tally after using the (Plus / Minus) range will neither exceed the total seats in
the respective state nor will be less than zero.
3. Please note that the real numbers of seats in each state & nationwide projection should
not be split in any range because our real number of seats is epicenter of our actual
projection. Please display the figures as we have mentioned along with the plus/minus
range.



TODAYS CHANAKYA
(A Political Research Organisation)
New Delhi, India















SURPRISE FINDINGS WHICH NO ONE ELSE CAN PREDICT Pg. 12 of 12
WE ARE ALWAYS FIRST AND REMAIN FIRST IN ACCURACY
WE ARE HAVING THE ARTS OF WINNING ELECTIONS TODAYS CHANAKYA
Loksabha Elections 2014 Exit & Post Poll





Uttar Pradesh (80 Seats)
Party
Vote 2014
(Forecast)
Seat 2014 (Forecast)
BJP+ 34% 3% 70 7 (Plus / Minus 7) Seats
BSP 22% 3% 3 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats
SP 23% 3% 4 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats
Congress+ 12% 3% 3 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats
AAP 5% 2% -
Others 4% 2% -


Important:
1. Please dont forget to put Seat Range (Plus / Minus)
2. The seat tally after using the (Plus / Minus) range will neither exceed the total seats in
the respective state nor will be less than zero.
3. Please note that the real numbers of seats in each state & nationwide projection should
not be split in any range because our real number of seats is epicenter of our actual
projection. Please display the figures as we have mentioned along with the plus/minus
range.



Team Todays Chanakya

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