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First take on Foreign Policy and Power Projection

under Modi
Col R. Hariharan, C3S Paper No.2099 dated May 17, 2014
[Thi arti!le
in!l"de point #ade $y Col Hariharan at a panel di!"ion on the %oor %arhan T&
on May 1', 2014.(
Narendra Modi, the )*P+ pri#e #initerial !andidate, ha $een ,i-en #ai-e
#andate $y the people in the ."t !on!l"ded ,eneral ele!tion to the parlia#ent. The
)*P i poied to ,et a #a.ority on it o/n tea#, e-en /itho"t the "pport o0 !oalition
partner. So Modi en.oy a lot o0 0reedo# to hape and e1e!"te hi poli!ie /itho"t
dependin, "pon the "pport o0 !oalition partner. )"t he ha !learly indi!ated that he
/o"ld li2e to !arry all partie alon, /ith hi# in 0"rtherin, hi national de-elop#ent
a,enda.
%epite Modi+ h",e p"$li! preen!e, Ne/ %elhi+ o !alled li$eral le0t3leanin,
4intelle!t"al5 !la /hi!h had rallied a,aint hi# had ne-er $een a$le to !arry o"t a
dipaionate analyi o0 Modi and hi tyle o0 ,o-ernan!e. Hi "!!e ha #ade a
#o!2ery o0 the traditional yardti!2 o0 !la, !ate and !o##"nal e6"ation "ed $y
analyt to t"dy 7ndian politi!al operation. He had planned and 0lehed o"t the
entire )*P ele!tion !a#pai,n "in, the $et a-aila$le h"#an reo"r!e and te!hnolo,y
to a!hie-e hi !a#pai,n ,oal.
Hi aerti-e tyle o0 leaderhip ha a 0e/ !hara!teriti!8 leadin, 0ro# the 0ront, !lear
arti!"lation o0 o$.e!ti-e, in,le #inded p"r"it o0 ,oal, a$ility to #oti-ate hi tea#,
and thin2in, o"t o0 the $o1, aited $y inde0ati,a$le ener,y and oratori!al 2ill. Thi
had helped hi# #a2e 9".arat a 0rontline tate in de-elop#ent. So /e !an e1pe!t hi#
to lar,ely "e hi e1periential learnin, a !hie0 #initer /hile er-in, a pri#e
#initer. : a #an /ith a$"ndant !o##onene /e !an alo e1pe!t hi# to adapt hi
tyle to "it the !o#ple1itie o0 hi ne/ .o$ at the national le-el.
;orei,n poli!y
There i a lot o0 !on-er,en!e in the o-erall 0orei,n poli!y -iion o0 the Con,re party
and the )*P. Ho/e-er, Narendra Modi+ ,ra##ar and arti!"lation o0 poli!ie /ill
#a2e a di00eren!e to the poli!y dipenation. Hi aerti-e leaderhip tyle and
e1preion /ill $rin, the #"!h needed !larity in 0orei,n poli!y prono"n!e#ent. Hi
de-elop#ental #odel /ill o00er ,reater opport"nitie 0or 0orei,n !o"ntrie to e1pand
their e!ono#i! relation /ith 7ndia, $eyond the li#itation o0 real politi!2.
: Modi i an aerti-e leader< 0orei,n !o"ntrie li2e the =.S. and China /ho ha-e $een
ro"tinely trahin, 7ndian enti#ent a a part o0 their poli!y /o"ld $e #ore !a"tio"
in handlin, eniti-e i"e.
The =.S
9eor,e > )"h had laid a tron, 0o"ndation 0or re-a#pin, the =.S. 7ndia relationhip
on a 0ir# 0ootin,. :nd %r Man#ohan Sin,h had re!ipro!ated it $y p"hin, thro",h
the 7ndo3=.S !i-il n"!lear a,ree#ent in the teeth o0 oppoition. Ho/e-er, Preident
?$a#a 0ailed to !arry it 0or/ard and $oth ide ee# to ha-e lot their ener,y or
interet to 2eep "p the #o#ent"# 0or reaon o0 national poli!y o-er the lat i1 year.
Stran,ely, in a !on-ol"ted poli!y de!iion Narendra Modi /a in,led o"t 0or a =.S
$oy!ott a0ter the pot39odhra riot in 9".arat in 2002. The State depart#ent /ithdre/
hi -ia to -iit the =.S. The :#eri!an 0orei,n o00i!e po2e#an re#inded 7ndian a
0e/ day $a!2 that the -ia $an /a till in 0or!e and Modi /ill ha-e to apply to ,et it
re-o2ed. Thi !o##ent !a#e e-en a 7ndian e1it poll /ere predi!tin, a -i!tory 0or
Modi. So #"!h 0or :#eri!an diplo#a!y@
So the i#portan!e o0 Preident ?$a#a+ /ar# #ea,e !on,rat"latin, Narendra Modi
on hi "!!e, in-itin, hi# to the =.S ha to $e -ie/ed in thi #"r2y en-iron#ent
already #"ddied $y o#e o0 the =.S. poli!y dipenation a00e!tin, 7ndia. : ,ood
e1a#ple i the =.S+ -indi!ti-e appli!ation o0 7PR nor# to ha"l "p 7ndian
phar#a!e"ti!al !o#panie !o#petin, "!!e0"lly in ,lo$al #ar2et a,aint =.S.
phar#a!e"ti!al !o#panie.
Ho/e-er, /e !an e1pe!t Modi, $ein, a pra,#atit, ready to i#pro-e trade and
e!ono#i! lin2 /ith the =.S. Ho/-er, i#pro-e#ent in trate,i! e!"rity relation
/o"ld re6"ire i#pro-e#ent in peronal e6"ation $et/een the leaderhip o0 the t/o
!o"ntrie. )"t one thin, i !lear, Modi /ill en"re 7ndia i no p"ho-er and the =.S
!annot ta2e 7ndia 0or ,ranted any #ore. The =.S. to o-er!o#e the initial #e o0 it
o/n #a2in,, /ill pro$a$ly ha-e to /al2 an e1tra #ile a Modi tart i#ple#entin, hi
e!ono#i! a,enda.
Pa2itan
:0ter dealin, /ith %r Man#ohan Sin,h /ho /a plia$le eno",h to a!!ept Pa2itan a
a -i!ti# o0 terrori# Ao0 it o/n #a2in, no do"$t@B, Modi i li2ely to $e #ore aerti-e
/itho"t $ein, a,,rei-e.
There i li2ely to $e eno",h !ope 0or i#pro-in, 7ndia3Pa2itan trade relation
Apro-ided Pa2itan :r#y hed it 7ndia3pho$iaB. Ho/e-er, Modi i li2ely to init
"pon Pa2itan di#antlin, it terrorit in0ratr"!t"re a!ro the Cine o0 Control in
*a##" and Dah#ir and hand o-er or proe!"te terrorit #ater#ind in-ol-ed in
2'E11 terror atta!2 in M"#$ai $e0ore reopenin, "$tanti-e hi,h le-el dialo,"e
$et/een the t/o !o"ntrie.
Na/aF Shari0 i tr",,lin, to tal2 pea!e /ith Pa2itan Tali$an terrorit e-en a they
!ontin"e to !arry o"t $o#$ atta!2. He i alo 0a!in, an in!reain,ly reti-e Pa2 ar#y
/hi!h 0ind rapid #ar,inaliatop# p0 it e1tra !ontit"tional a"thority. >hile he /al2
the ti,htrope $et/een thee t/o 0or!e, /e #ay not e1pe!t any dra#ati! #o-e to
$rin, i##ediate !heer in 7ndia3Pa2itan relation in the near 0"t"re.
China
G-en $e0ore the ,eneral ele!tion, China had aid it /a loo2in, 0or/ard to deal /ith the
ne/ ,o-ern#ent in Ne/ %elhi to !arry 0or/ard the it relationhip $"ildin, pro!e
/ith Ne/ %elhi. China+ readine to in-et in 7ndia /o"ld $e /el!o#ed $y Narendra
Modi a it !o"ld help hi de-elop#ent a,enda parti!"larly in in0ratr"!t"re $"ildin,,
parti!"larly in po/er and rail/ay e!tor.
Ho/e-er, Modi ha a /ar# peronal e6"ation /ith *apan /hi!h ha appre!iated hi
de-elop#ent #odel< a a re"lt 9".arat ha $ene0itted 0ro# *apanee in-et#ent. :nd
China3*apan relationhip i perhap ,oin, thro",h it /ort phae no/. 7n pite o0
"!h !ontraint, the entreprene"rial pirit o0 Modi i li2ely to n"an!e 7ndia+
relationhip /ith $oth *apan and China.
He i li2ely to o-er!o#e Chinee reitan!e to enlar,in, 7ndian role in :SG:N and in
S::RC nation $y #a2in, the e!ono#i! $ondin, #ore attra!ti-e /ith thee !o"ntrie.
:t the a#e ti#e, Ne/ %elhi i #ore li2ely to rre!ipro!ate -ii$ly to China+ #indle
pinpri!2 a,aint 7ndia in the na#e o0 $"ttrein, territorial !lai# li2e tapled -ia
or denial o0 -ia, tho",h the $order tal2 ,oin, on are li2ely to !ontin"e at it o/n
lo/ pa!e.
Sri Can2a
Narendra Modi+ "!!e ha pro$a$ly p"t Colo#$o in a tiFFy. There are ,ood reaon
0or thi.
=nli2e the earlier 7ndian Pri#e Miniter, Modi i a tron,, aerti-e leader. So Sri
Can2a /ill 0ind it !annot ta2e hi# 0or ,ranted. He !an $e #ore de#andin, 0ro# a
relationhip. :nd Sri Can2a pro$a$ly 0ear hi Hind" nationalit ideolo,y /o"ld #a2e
hi# pre0er dealin, /ith Ta#il Hind" 0a-o"ra$ly than /ith Sinhala )"ddhit.
)*P+ t/o #a.or allie in Ta#il Nad" i.e., the M%MD led $y &ai2o and the PMD led $y
%r Ra#ado ha-e $een tron,ly epo"in, the Gela# Ca"e. They ha-e $een
de#andin, Ne/ %elhi to ta2e tron, a!tion a,aint Sri Can2a 0or alle,ed /ar !ri#e.
Thi i !o#po"nded $y the reo"ndin, ele!toral "!!e o0 the Ta#il Nad" !hie0
#initer M *ayalalithaa, /ho had ta2en a tron, anti3Ra.apa2a tan!e. Thi !o"ld
p"h )*P+ Ta#il Nad" allie to adopt an e-en #ore trident pot"re. Tho",h the
allie+ ele!toralper0or#an!e had $een poor in the parlia#entary poll, the )*P /o"ld
pro$a$ly li2e to $"ild "pon it to tren,then it pre!ario" per!h in Ta#il Nad". So
their pre"re !o"ld i#pa!t )*P+ Sri Can2a poli!y.
?n the other hand, )*P leader ha-e !lari0ied that depite the ele!toral allian!e /ith
&ai2o and other 0rin,e ele#ent in Ta#il Nad", they /o"ld ti!2 to the $ai! o0 7ndia
H Sri Can2a relation8 INo+ to Ta#il eparati#, IJe+ to $"ildin, "pon the !o"ntry3to3
!o"ntry relationhip 0or/ard re,ardle o0 leaderhip, and INo+ to e1tre#i# o0 any
2ind H Ta#il, *ihadi or Maoit pe!ie.
Modi in pite o0 hi do,#ati# a$o"t Hind"t-a, i a pra,#atit. He pro$a$ly !o"nt
)"ddha A/ho i one o0 the %aa-atar o0 &ihn"B a a part o0 Hind"t-a. So it /ill $e
i#pliti! to ay that Modi or the )*P /o"ld $e !loer to the Ta#il Hind" than the
Sinhala )"ddhit.
Ho/e-er, Modia /ill pro$a$ly $e #ore de#andin, than Pri#e Miniter Man#ohan
Sin,h, parti!"larly a Preident Ra.apa2a ha ,one $a!2 on hi pro#ie to 7ndia to
i#ple#ent the 13th :#end#ent to the Sri Can2a !ontit"tion to 0"lly e#po/er the
pro-in!ial !o"n!il. So Sri Can2a ho"ld $e prepared to re/or2 it lop ided politi!al
trate,y tilted in 0a-o"r o0 tat" 6"o to re"#e the politi!al dialo, pro!e /ith Ta#il
politi!al partie. 7#ple#entin, the 13th :#end#ent in 0"ll /ill $e it 0irt tep. >e
!an e1pe!t the Modi ,o-ern#ent to e#phaiFe thi ape!t. The a#e applie to
i#ple#entin, the =NHRC reol"tion on Sri Can2a.
To "##arie, depite hi li0e3lon, ao!iation /ith Hind"t-a, Narendra Modi i a
#an o0 hi o/n #ind. He et hi o/n ,oal and #a2e other help hi# to a!hie-e
the#. Modi ha an "n!anny a$ility to ee the $i, pi!t"re and then trate,ie hi a!tion.
Hi a,enda i li2ely to $e #ore in!l"i-e than e1!l"i-e. The ele!tion !a#pai,n he had
#ater#inded and "!!e0"lly e1e!"ted i a teti#ony to hi /ay o0 0"n!tionin,. So
/hat )*P leader ay #ay not $e a"to#ati!ally tranlated $y hi# into a!tion in the
/ay they /ant. >e /ill ha-e to /ait and ee hi !hoi!e o0 !a$inet #e#$er and the /ay
he 0"n!tion in handlin, entirely ne/ !hallen,e $e0ore /e !an ."d,e hi#.
AThe /ritter, i Col. R Hariharan, a retired Military 7ntelli,en!e pe!ialit on So"th
:ia, i ao!iated /ith the So"th :ia :nalyi 9ro"p and the Chennai Centre 0or
China St"die. G3 #ail8!olhariKyahoo.!o# )lo,8 ///.!olhariharan.or,B

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