ONGC Stock Price Analysis

November 18, 2013
ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Result Update

WHAT S CHANGED
PRICE TARGET........................................................................changed from | 349 to | 306
EPS (FY14E)..........................................................................changed from | 34.3 to | 28.6
EPS (FY15E)..........................................................................changed from | 48.5 to | 40.8
RATING...............................................................................................................Unchanged
Negatives factored in
ONGC declared its Q2FY14 results with revenues at | 22414.7 crore (our
estimate: | 22489.5 crore) and PAT at | 6063.9 crore (our estimate:
| 5587.5 crore). The topline is in line with our estimates, with total
production at 6.5 MMT (our estimate: 6.6 MMT) and net realisations of
$44.8/bbl (our estimate $47.1/ bbl). Net realisations are lower than
estimates as subsidy burden is | 13,796 crore against our estimate of
| 12,330 crore. The bottomline is above our estimates due to higher other
income & lower depreciation. We have reduced our earnings estimate as
we have increased our subsidy share burden for ONGC. We recommend
a BUY rating on the stock, with a target price of | 306.
Domestic production from marginal fields to begin
ONGC has maintained its crude oil production guidance at 27.2 MMT for
FY14, implying a higher production in H2FY14 against that in H1FY14. The
production pick-up is expected from marginal fields like B-193 and Cluster
7 in Q4FY14, where substantial development work has already been
done. Current production from D1 field is 20,000 bopd. In KG DWN 98/2,
since columns of oil have been discovered, the company will submit
revised DOC in December 2013, with reserve accretion likely to happen in
FY15E. We expect the standalone production (domestic + JV) of oil & gas
to be ~ 26.5 MMT & ~ 24.9 BCM, respectively in FY14E.
Overseas assets-reserve accretion & volume ramp-up
Production from HEG field, Azerbaijan is estimated at 0.9 MMT in FY14E.
Production from South Sudan has started with production estimated at
0.28 MMT in FY14E. The ramp-up to pre-partition levels in South Sudan is
expected to happen in FY15E. Production in the A3 block in Myanmar has
also started in July 2013, where gas production is estimated at 0.09 BCM
in FY14E, with a subsequent ramp-up to 0.5 BCM in FY15E. Reserves from
the Mozambique block will get added to reserves in FY15E, once the
acquisition is complete in FY14E while reserves from BC-10 block will get
accounted for in FY14E itself. The current price offers a favourable risk-
reward ratio as it is already factoring in high subsidy burden. If no gas
price hike takes place, then our target price would be | 250, which shows
the stock price is hardly factoring in any gas price hike. We recommend
BUY rating on the stock, with a target price of | 306.
Exhibit 1: Financial Performance
(| Crore) Q2FY14A Q2FY14E Q2FY13 Q1FY14 YoY Gr.(%) QoQ Gr.(%)
Revenues 22414.7 22489.5 19885.1 19308.9 12.7 16.1
EBITDA 12103.6 12032.7 10368.7 8488.4 16.7 42.6
EBITDA Margin (%) 54.0 53.5 52.1 44.0 190 bps 1000 bps
Depreciation 4497.2 5013.4 3727.4 3900.7 20.7 15.3
Interest 0.1 5.0 3.1 0.2 -97.1 -57.1
Reported PAT 6063.9 5587.5 5896.6 4016.0 2.8 51.0
EPS (|) 7.1 6.5 6.9 4.7 2.8 51.0

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC)
| 270
Rating matrix
Rating : Buy
Target : | 306
Target Period : 12-15 months
Potential Upside : 13%

Key Financials
( | Crore)
FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E
Revenues 147306.8 162386.3 167854.3 192840.2
EBITDA 58706.4 54900.5 53592.8 72743.7
Net Profit 28428.9 23990.3 24610.1 35042.8

Valuation summary
FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E
EPS (Rs) 32.9 28.3 28.6 40.8
PE (x) 8.2 9.5 9.4 6.6
Target PE (x) 9.3 10.8 10.7 7.5
EV to EBITDA (x) 3.5 4.0 4.2 2.9
Price to book (x) 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2
RoNW (%) 20.8 15.7 15.0 18.7
RoCE (%) 24.9 19.6 19.5 25.7

Stock data
Market Cap. | 231000.1 Crore
Debt (FY13) | 8842.7 Crore
Cash + Liq. Invsts (FY13) | 19619.1 Crore
EV | 220223.8 Crore
52 week H/L 355 / 234
Equity capital | 140 Crore
Face value | 10
MF Holding (%) 13.7
FII Holding (%) 15.3

Price movement
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Nov-13 Aug-13 May-13 Feb-13 Nov-12
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Price (R.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S)

Analysts name
Mayur Matani
mayur.matani@icicisecurities.com
Nishit Zota
nishit.zota@icicisecurities.com

Page 2

Exhibit 2: Assumption
Unit FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E
Exchange rate |/$ 47.8 54.4 59.9 60.0
Gross Under-recoveries Rs. Crore 138541.1 161029.0 137495.5 126028.3
Gross realisation $/barrel 120.3 110.7 108.4 109.0
Net realisation $/barrel 55.3 47.9 44.0 45.5
Oil Production (Domestiv+JV) MMT 26.9 26.1 26.5 28.2
Oil Production (OVL) MMT 6.2 4.3 5.4 5.6
Gas Production (Domestic+JV) BCM 25.5 25.3 24.9 25.6
Gas Production (OVL) BCM 2.5 2.9 2.5 2.6

Source: ICICIdirect.com Research, Company

Exhibit 3: Crude oil production trend
6.5 6.6
6.5 6.5 6.5
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14
m
m
t


Exhibit 4: Crude oil realisation trend
109.9 110.2
114.0
102.9
109.0
46.8 48.0
50.9
40.2
44.8
0
30
60
90
120
150
$
/
b
a
r
r
e
l
60
62
64
66
68
70
$
/
b
a
r
r
e
l
Gross Realised Price Realised Price after Subsidy / Discount Subsidy / Discount


Crude oil production remained flat YoY at 6.5 MMT in
Q2FY14. We estimate oil production at 26.5 MMT and 28.2
MMT in FY14E and FY15E, respectively

Upstream companies share in the gross under-recoveries
came at 47.4% in Q2FY14. The net crude oil realisation
declined 4.3% YoY to US$44.8/barrel in Q2FY14

Page 3
Exhibit 5: Gas production trend
6.4 6.3
6.2 6.2 6.2
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
b
c
m


Exhibit 6: EBITDA & EBITDA margins trend
12104
8488
10734
11342
10369
44.0
49.2
53.8
52.1
54.0
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
|

C
r
o
r
e
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
E
B
I
T
D
A

m
a
r
g
i
n

(
%
)
EBITDA EBITDA margin


Exhibit 7: Quarterly profit & loss account
(| Crore) Q2FY14 Percent. (%) Q2FY13 Percent. (%)
Revenues 22414.7 100.0 19885.1 100.0
(Increase) / Decrease in stock in trade -7.5 0.0 -113.1 -0.6
Consumption of raw materials 126.2 0.6 116.6 0.6
Employees Cost 442.7 2.0 544.9 2.7
Statutory Levies 5824.2 26.0 5585.3 28.1
Other Expenditure 3924.8 17.5 3382.0 17.0
Total Expenditure 10311.1 46.0 9516.4 47.9
EBITDA 12103.6 54.0 10368.7 52.1
Depreciation 4497.2 20.1 3727.4 18.7
EBIT 7606.4 33.9 6641.4 33.4
Interest 0.1 0.0 3.1 0.0
Other Inc /Exp /Extra Ordinary Item 1483.0 6.6 1901.1 9.6
PBT 9089.2 40.6 8539.4 42.9
Total Tax 3025.4 13.5 2642.9 13.3
PAT 6063.9 27.1 5896.6 29.7


Natural gas production declined 3.1% to 6.2 bcm in
Q2FY14. We estimate gas production at 24.9 bcm and 25.6
in FY14E and FY15E, respectively

Page 4
Valuations
Our estimates of gross under-recoveries stand at ~| 1,37,496 crore and
~| 1,26,028 crore in FY14E and FY15E, respectively. The current price
offers a favourable risk-reward ratio as it is already factoring in high
subsidy burden. If no gas price hike takes place, then our target price
would be | 250, which shows that the stock price is hardly factoring in
any gas price hike. The stock is currently trading at 6.6 x FY15E EPS. We
recommend BUY rating on the stock with a target price of | 306 (average
of 8x FY15E EPS and 1.4x FY15E BVPS).

Exhibit 8: Valuation
Year
Sales
(| Crore)
Sales Gr.
(%)
EPS
(|)
EPS Gr.
(%)
PE
(x)
EV/EBITDA (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%)
FY12 147306.8 113.0 32.9 48.7 8.2 3.5 20.8 24.9
FY13 162386.3 10.2 28.3 -13.9 9.5 4.0 15.7 19.6
FY14E 167854.3 3.4 28.6 1.1 9.4 4.2 15.0 19.5
FY15E 192840.2 14.9 40.8 42.6 6.6 2.9 18.7 25.7


Exhibit 9: Valuation
Valuation based on P / BV multiple
Adjusted Book Value for FY15E (|Crore) 185309.9
Adjusted number of shares (Crore) 855.6
Adjusted Book Value per share (|) 216.6
Multiple 1.4
Value of core business (| per share) 303.2
Add: Listed investments (25% discount to CMP) (| per share) 6.4
Fair Value per share (|) 310
Valuation based on P / E multiple
Profit after tax for FY15E (| Crore) 35042.8
Less: Other Income adjusted for tax (| Crore) 3457.3
Adjusted profit after tax for FY15E (| Crore) 31585.5
Number of shares (Crore) 855.6
Adjusted EPS for FY15E (|) 36.9
Multiple 8.0
Fair value per share without investments (|) 295.3
Add: Value of Investments (| per share)
Listed investments (25% discount to CMP) 6.4
Other Investments 1.5
Fair value per share (|) 303
Weighted Target Price (| per share) 306

Source: ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 5

Financial summary

Profit and loss statement
(| Crore)
(Year-end March) FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E
Revenue 147,306.8 162,386.3 167,854.3 192,840.2
Growth (%) 22.3 9.9 4.1 14.7
(Inc.)/Dec. in stock trade -464.1 -1120.5 -44.2 0.0
Raw material Costs 46787.2 61730.4 59185.6 60877.9
Employee Costs 1695.8 2458.5 3279.9 4343.9
Statutory Levies 23125.1 25688.6 27554.0 31012.4
Other Expenditure 17456.5 18728.9 24286.1 23862.1
Op. Expenditure 88,600.4 107,485.9 114,261.5 120,096.4
EBITDA 58,706.4 54,900.5 53,592.8 72,743.7
Growth (%) 20.7 -6.5 -2.4 35.7
Depreciation 23,434.3 23,191.7 20,428.0 23,410.6
EBIT 35,272.2 31,708.8 33,164.9 49,333.1
Interest 434.9 485.0 519.1 516.3
Other Income 4,825.7 5,518.5 5,217.0 4,926.6
PBT 42,803.5 36,742.2 37,862.7 53,743.3
Growth (%) 24.7 -14.2 3.0 41.9
Tax 14,374.6 12,751.9 13,252.6 18,700.5
Reported PAT 28,428.9 23,990.3 24,610.1 35,042.8
Growth (%) 24.6 -15.6 2.6 42.4


Cash flow statement
(| Crore)
Profit after Tax 28,428.9 23,990.3 24,610.1 35,042.8
Less: Dividend Paid 9,702.7 9,432.9 11,736.6 11,736.6
Add: Depreciation 23,434.3 23,191.7 20,428.0 23,410.6
Add: Others -72.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cash Profit 44,195.0 40,151.7 32,605.1 47,868.9
Increase/(Decrease) in CL 16,067.0 -626.2 -5,285.0 7,642.1
(Increase)/Decrease in CA -13,410.0 -6,899.9 9,725.2 -294.0
CF from Operating Activities 46852.0 32625.6 37045.2 55217.0
Purchase of Fixed Assets 41,810.7 47,181.6 41,674.1 45,475.3
(Inc)/Dec in Investments 435.4 792.5 -1,206.3 0.0
Others 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
CF from Investing Activities -41375.3 -46389.1 -42880.5 -45475.3
Inc/(Dec) in Loan Funds -534.9 3,961.6 321.6 150.0
Inc/(Dec) in Sh. Cap. & Res. 2,385.8 1,531.5 -805.0 -877.1
Others 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0
CF from financing activities 1850.9 5493.0 -483.4 -727.1
Change in cash Eq. 7,327.6 -8,270.5 -6,318.7 9,014.6
Op. Cash and cash Eq. 20,562.0 27,889.6 19,619.1 13,300.4
Cl. Cash and cash Eq. 27889.6 19619.1 13300.4 22315.1


Balance sheet
(| Crore)
Source of Funds
Equity Capital 4,277.8 4,277.8 4,277.8 4,277.8
Reserves & Surplus 132,161.4 148,250.3 160,318.8 182,748.0
Shareholder's Fund 136,439.2 152,528.1 164,596.6 187,025.8
Loan Funds 5,208.6 8,842.7 6,439.5 5,389.5
Abandon cost liability 20398.1 20725.5 23450.4 24650.4
Deferred Tax Liability 12,184.6 14,849.0 14,842.3 15,994.3
Minority Interest 2,208.4 1,946.6 2,052.9 2,052.9
Source of Funds 176439.0 198892.0 211381.7 235112.9
Application of Funds
Net Block 38,542.0 49,104.1 68,740.8 77,322.1
Capital WIP 38,042.9 39,739.7 21,506.5 18,839.5
Producing Properties 60,800.4 70,545.0 84,784.2 97,841.6
Pre-Producing Properties 11,655.3 13,641.7 19,245.1 22,338.0
Total Fixed Assets 149,040.5 173,030.4 194,276.6 216,341.2
Investments 2,920.7 2,128.2 3,334.5 3,334.5
Inventories 13,168.0 12,780.4 15,308.5 17,107.0
Debtor 11,714.3 15,395.6 13,090.7 14,261.3
Cash 27,889.6 19,619.1 13,300.4 22,315.1
Loan & Advance, Other CA 26,897.4 30,503.7 20,555.3 17,880.3
Total Current assets 79,669.3 78,298.8 62,254.9 71,563.6
Current Liabilities 49,044.5 48,946.4 40,514.5 46,108.5
Provisions 6,147.1 5,619.0 8,765.8 10,814.1
Total CL and Provisions 55,191.6 54,565.4 49,280.4 56,922.5
Net Working Capital 24,477.7 23,733.4 12,974.5 14,641.1
Miscellaneous expense 0.0 0.0 796.0 796.0
Application of Funds 176439.0 198892.0 211381.7 235112.9

S
Key ratios
Per share data (|)
Book Value 159.5 178.3 192.4 218.6
Cash per share 32.6 22.9 15.5 26.1
EPS 32.9 28.3 28.6 40.8
Cash EPS 60.3 55.4 52.5 68.2
DPS 9.8 10.8 11.8 11.8
Profitability & Operating Ratios
EBITDA Margin (%) 39.9 33.8 31.9 37.7
PAT Margin (%) 19.3 14.8 14.7 18.2
Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9
Inventory Turnover (Days) 62.3 56.2 65.8 58.9
Debtor (Days) 55.4 67.7 56.3 49.1
Current Liabilities (Days) 231.9 215.3 174.2 158.8
Return Ratios (%)
RoE 20.8 15.7 15.0 18.7
RoCE 24.9 19.6 19.5 25.7
RoIC 31.0 22.4 21.1 29.1
Valuation Ratios (x)
PE 8.2 9.5 9.4 6.6
Price to Book Value 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2
EV/EBITDA 3.5 4.0 4.2 2.9
EV/Sales 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1
Leverage & Solvency Ratios
Debt to equity (x) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Interest Coverage (x) 81.1 65.4 63.9 95.5
Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
Current Ratio 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3
Quick ratio 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0


Page 6
Company Descri pti on
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), Indias largest national oil & gas
company, is primarily engaged in exploration, development and
production of crude oil and natural gas in both India and abroad. ONGCs
core strength lies in its strong resource base and increasing production
resulting from aggressive capex. The company has managed to maintain
a diversified portfolio of yielding assets through its wholly owned
subsidiary ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL). ONGC is also involved in production
of LPG and other value added products, alternative energy projects and
exploring the feasibility of setting up a nuclear power project.

Exhibit 10: Recommendation History
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Nov-13 Sep-13 Aug-13 Jul-13 May-13 Apr-13 Feb-13 Jan-13 Nov-12
Price Target Price


Exhibit 11: Recent Releases
Date Event CMP Target Price Rating
9-Nov-12 Q2FY13 Result Update 257 312 BUY
19-Feb-13 Q3FY13 Result Update 330 388 BUY
6-Jun-13 Q4FY13 Result Update 325 382 BUY
1-Jul-13 Oil & Gas Sector Update 320 425 BUY
13-Aug-13 Q1FY14 Result Update 273 349 BUY
14-Nov-13 Q2FY14 Result Update 270 306 BUY


Page 7

ICICIdirect.com Coverage Universe (Oil & Gas)
CMP M Cap
(|) TP(|) Rating (| Cr) FY13 FY14E FY15E FY13 FY14E FY15E FY13 FY14E FY15E FY13 FY14E FY15E FY13 FY14E FY15E
Aban Offshore (ABALLO) 234 280 Buy 1,018 37.2 74.5 77.6 6.3 3.1 3.0 5.7 4.8 4.5 10.9 11.9 12.4 6.1 10.8 10.6
Bharat Petroleum (BHAPET) 346 410 Buy 25,019 36.6 24.6 26.5 9.5 14.1 13.0 7.6 9.5 9.3 10.3 6.8 7.2 15.9 10.2 10.4
Cairn India (CAIIND) 320 364 Buy 60,693 41.6 63.1 62.7 7.7 5.1 5.1 4.8 4.2 4.1 20.0 23.5 19.3 16.4 25.3 21.1
GAIL (India) (GAIL) 336 349 Hold 42,621 31.7 32.6 30.2 10.6 10.3 11.1 7.5 7.1 7.3 16.9 15.5 13.5 16.6 15.3 13.1
Gujarat Gas (GUJGAS) 274 259 Hold 3,514 22.3 25.3 25.1 12.3 10.8 10.9 8.5 7.2 6.8 38.3 39.1 35.4 32.3 31.9 28.3
Gujarat State Petronet (GSPL) 60 65 Hold 3,375 9.6 8.2 7.9 6.3 7.3 7.6 4.5 4.8 5.1 20.3 16.8 14.5 18.3 13.9 11.9
Hindustan Petroleum (HINPET) 210 233 Buy 7,119 26.7 17.5 25.5 7.9 12.0 8.2 10.8 9.6 7.4 4.2 4.1 6.0 6.6 4.3 6.1
Indian Oil Corporation (INDOIL) 210 200 Hold 50,987 20.6 6.3 22.0 10.2 33.2 9.6 3.7 4.8 3.1 5.7 3.5 7.8 8.2 2.5 8.3
Indraprastha Gas Ltd. (INDGAS) 279 277 Hold 3,785 25.3 28.5 27.7 11.0 9.8 10.1 5.5 4.8 4.5 31.1 30.1 25.5 23.7 22.1 18.5
Oil India Limited (OILIND) 461 562 Buy 27,712 59.7 55.6 81.4 7.7 8.3 5.7 3.6 3.5 1.9 18.5 16.0 23.1 18.7 15.8 19.8
ONGC (ONGC) 270 306 Buy 231,000 26.2 32.9 28.3 10.3 8.2 9.5 4.5 3.5 4.0 26.6 24.9 19.6 19.8 20.8 15.7
Petronet LNG (PETLNG) 125 132 Hold 9,375 15.3 10.8 12.0 8.2 11.6 10.4 5.7 8.2 7.6 24.4 14.1 12.9 25.8 16.1 15.7
RoCE (%) RoE (%)
Sector / Company
EPS (|) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x)

Page 8

RATING RATIONALE
ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns
ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them
as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional
target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock.

Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction;
Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively;
Hold: Up to +/-10%;
Sell: -10% or more;

Pankaj Pandey Head Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1
st
Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No. 7, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
Mumbai 400 093

research@icicidirect.com

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November 18, 2013

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

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