8/1/13 Answer to Politics of India: What do you think about the Indian Government' s decision for the bifurcation

of Andhra Pradesh? - Quora

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Politics of India: What do you think about the Indian Government's
decision for the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh?
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Anonymous
Votes by Makarand Sahasrabuddhe, Arun Nagabhirava, Prateek Jain, and 3170
more.
Oh god, this will be a super-long answer. Also, people from different regions of AP
have different views on this. Here is mine:
Note: Do not view this answer as a Telangana Vs Seemandhra tug of war.
That will only lead to a lot of vitand vaad. Instead, look at it as a
comparative analysis trying to bring out the advantages and disadvantages
of the division.
Short version: I hold an opinion that happens to be very different from most people.
The bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh is a very good thing for the people of Andhra and
Rayalaseema. I hope Telangana benefits from this division as well. However, there
are some tough challenges which need to be solved.
I do not know how much you already know about the history of AP, but I will try to
give you some background before we jump into the main part of the answer.
History: The map below shows the provinces in south India post independence. The
blue part was actually a part of the Madras Presidency during the British rule and
the yellow parts which seem to be split by red and blue lines together constituted
the Nizam state. Nizam's kingdom was divided into 3 parts as shown and the
Telugu speaking part was merged with the Telugu speaking part of the Madras
Presidency to form the present day state of Andhra Pradesh. This was followed by
the formation of Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Gujarat, etc. Now why did the
whole thing even happen?
Remember that the blue part in AP is seemandhra (Rayalaseema+ Coastal Andhra)
and the yellow part is Telangana. There was a great freedom fighter called Potti
Sreeramulu, who felt that the Telugu people in the Madras presidency were not
getting their fair share and started a satyagraha-demanding a separate state for the
Telugu people. Nehru initially opposed this struggle and Potti Sriramulu died as a
result of Nehru's negligence. The Telugu people were enraged and Nehru was
eventually forced to create a new Telugu state.
Now, what followed was Nehru's failed decision making and social engineering-
which is the root cause of today's problem. Remember how Patel forced the Nizam
to merge his kingdom into the Indian Union? After kicking the Nizam out, Nehru did
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8/1/13 Answer to Politics of India: What do you think about the Indian Government' s decision for the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh? - Quora
www.quora.com/Politics-of-India-1/What-do-you-think-about-the-Indian-Governments-decision-for-the-bifurcation-of-Andhra-Pradesh/answers/2880557?ref 2/7
not have a good follow up plan for the backward state of Hyderabad. He initially
opposed merging Telangana with Andhra. After a decade or so, he thought he could
do some clever social engineering by giving the Telugu speakers of the Nizam's
kingdom a new language-based identity along with the people of Seemandhra. This
was soon after the first SRC provided him with the pros and cons of the merger. He
did not care about the disparities between the people of Telangana and
Seemandhra.
What were the disparities? Telangana had a feudal history with Islamic rule for over
hundreds of years (similar to Delhi), while Seemandhra was ruled by the British and
had a long colonial past (similar to Tamil Nadu). However, Nehru did not care. His
biggest fear was that the forcibly annexed state of Hyderabad might be backward
forever or might someday leave the Indian Union to join Pakistan (Remember the
figure below shows the Pakistan Jinnah wanted, Hyderabad state is called
Osmanistan on the map below).
Now the people who love Nehru say all this was not his fault, but it was he who took
the final decision. The next step was to build a capital. People of Seemandhra
proposed Kurnool as the capital for the new state. However, Nehru convinced them
that Hyderabad would be a better location because it had all the infrastructure left
behind by the Nizam.
The modern state of Andhra Pradesh was formed and was ruled by successive
Congress governments- until N T Rama Rao started the Telugu Desam Party on the
basis of Telugu pride and self-rule. Now, there was also a Telangana agitation in the
meanwhile, and there was also a separate Jai Andhra movement during Indira
Gandhi's prime ministership. However, the Congress party was able to suppress
these movements in both the regions- simply because it was the single largest
party in the state without a strong opposition.
During all these years- from post-independence to the late 1980's Andhra Pradesh
(Telangana in specific) was a socioeconomic basket case. Then came Chandra
Babu Naidu. He transformed Andhra Pradesh into what it is today: from a basket
case into a top 5 state. I won't write much about him because most educated
people know his achievements very well and I will leave you with a graph below
which speaks volumes about his governance. The spike in Hyderabad (shown in the
graph) was during Naidu's rule. This was how Hyderabad was transformed from a
backward, lawless city into a modern metropolis.
Now, this is the real contentious issue. People of Seemandhra always felt that it
was their investments and human capital that created all the wealth in and around
Hyderabad, while Telangana people were free riders. They have always been very
upset that many of the coastal cities like Vishakhapatnam, Vijayawada, Tirupati,
8/1/13 Answer to Politics of India: What do you think about the Indian Government' s decision for the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh? - Quora
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etc., were neglected because all the investment was flowing into Hyderabad for far
too long. Hyderabad by the end of 2005 was like a huge black hole that gobbled up
all the foreign direct investment in the state. The Seemandhra people were also
worried about the sharing of Krishna and Godavari river waters with Telangana
(besides Maharashtra and Karnataka).
Meanwhile, a man named KCR tried to advance his political career by bringing back
the separate Telangana movement and starting his own party. His initial argument
was that people from Seemandhra have stolen all the fruits of development from the
people of Telangana. Later an expert panel called the Sri Krishna commission set
up by the central government proved his argument wrong. Here is the link to their
report:
http://pib.nic.in/archieve/other... . Now that his argument was proved wrong, KCR
picked up another cause: Self-respect of the Telangana people. This is where things
get very sensitive.
There are three major regional dialects of Telugu- each spoken by the people of
Telangana, Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema. People of Telangana always felt that
their dialect was being considered inferior by the speakers of the other dialects.
Also, the mass media (like Telugu movies and Television) have always used the
Coastal Andhra dialect. So, KCR successfully found a new reason to exploit to his
political gain. He claimed that the Telangana culture and dialect were being
considered inferior by the people of seemandhra and the only way the Telangana
people could get back their self-respect is by demanding a separate state. He
started a fast-unto-death- which really scared the hell out of Sonia Gandhi and
Chidambaram in 2009 (Remember the Potti Sriramulu incident?). So they caved in
and announced in December 2009 that they are willing to form a separate state of
Telangana.
Now the story moves to New Delhi. This is the election year and Sonia is worried
that the Congress might be decimated in AP during the 2014 elections. Since 2009,
the Congress party did not do anything about separate Telangana- until the last
month when they finally woke up to the election reality. The state of AP sends a
strong contingent (~32) of Congress MPs to Lok Sabha. She is worried that she
would lose to KCR in the Telangana region; Jagan Reddy or Chandra Babu Naidu in
the Seemandhra region. So she has instead decided to divide and rule the state.
She believes that- if they can form the state of Telangana before 2014, they would at
least get 17-18 MPs from the newly formed state. However, she is clueless about
Seemandhra (refer to the figure below).
Here comes Mr. Owaisi. Remember this hate-monger from Hyderabad? This guy
has collaborated with the Kashmiri Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad- to work out
a plan to socially re-engineer Andhra Pradesh all over again. They have created a
plan that would split the four districts of Rayalaseema into two- one half would be
merged with Telangana and the other half would be merged with Seemandhra. They
want to rename the new Telangana state as the 'Hyderabad state'- just like the
Nizam times! This will be a very dangerous thing for India in the long run. The idea
here is to create a huge Muslim minority, which would ensure that the congress
party has a secure voter base and political future in the new state. Take a look at
the social composition of Andhra Pradesh.
8/1/13 Answer to Politics of India: What do you think about the Indian Government' s decision for the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh? - Quora
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Now why would Telangana lose out and how would Seemandhra gain from
the division?
1. Telangana would fall prey to the vote-bank and socialist economic policies of the
Congress party due to the presence of a large number of minorities, and
backward classes. Note that the Muslims in Telangana are Urdu speaking,
whereas the Muslims from Seemandhra are Telugu speaking and are very well
assimilated into the society. Look at the social mix from the 6th bar in the graph
above- Telangana would have a huge minority population- which is like Congress
party's dream come true. However, the opposite of this would happen in the
state of Seemandhra- as it would have less than 5% Muslim population. Refer to
the last bar in the graph above.
2. Compare the percentage of high-castes in Telangana vs Seemandhra, i.e 6th
Bar Vs the last bar in the graph above. The high castes from Seemandhra were
the entrepreneurial classes who have been creating a lot of wealth over the last
few decades (including Hyderabad). Think GMR, GVK, LANCO, Dr. Reddy's,
Satyam, several media conglomerates, and the whole of Tollywood, etc.
Unfortunately, most people in Telangana can not distinguish between the
capitalists who create wealth and the feudalists who steal the wealth. The
phobia towards capitalists is so deeply ingrained in the minds of the villagers
that it is tough to convince the people about land collection, etc. This mindset is
not very prevalent in the people of Coastal Andhra. Here is what Wikipedia has
to say about the history of Feudalism in this region: "The Doras ruled the region
until the annexation. They held all the land in their fief and everybody use to give
their produce, and they use to be given only food barely sufficient for
sustenance. The rebellion against feudal lords, known as Vetti Chakiri
Udhyamam, from 1946 to 1951 in Telangana region called as Telangana
Rebellion illustrates the feudal society in the region.The feudal lords use to
reside in a high fortress called as Gadi, for entering it they leave their footwear
at the threshold of the Gadi. The madigas and other backward classes should
carry their footwear in their hands if they are passing in front of the Gadi or Dora.
The Srikrishna committee on Telangana says in its findings that, there is still
gross injustice to the land tillers of the region, the villains in this case were
landlords of Telangana and not those of other regions." The people of Telangana
would lose out on the capitalist classes and their entrepreneurial spirits by
mistaking them for such feudal landlords. This will impact their economy over
the long run. On the other hand, Seemandhra would have a huge scope for these
entrepreneurial classes- close to 31% of the population- to grow and create
wealth- primarily because Coastal Andhra does not suffer from such a feudal
past.
3. As many OBC leaders from Telangana have pointed out in the past- the elites in
Telangana have always been mostly feudal- but never very entrepreneurial and
these are the elites the state of Telangana would be left with. This is indicated in
the graph below which shows how inequality in Telangana actually increased
over the last decade due to landlessness and feudalism despite the economic
boom in that area. Note the steep decrease in inequality in the Andhra region.
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8/1/13 Answer to Politics of India: What do you think about the Indian Government' s decision for the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh? - Quora
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4. Hyderabad would no longer be the cash cow. The first wave of wealth creation in
Hyderabad is over and this can be inferred from all the macro-economic
indicators. This is probably the worst time to separate this city from its
capitalists and entrepreneurs; You are killing the golden goose. The exact
opposite is true for Vishakapatnam and Vijayawada. They are yet to begin their
first wave of economic growth. Look at the competition in FDI between Coastal
Andhra vs Telangana (excluding Hyderabad) from the graph below. Seemandhra
is already competing pretty well with Hyderabad in attracting investments. In
addition, Hyderabad has been declared as the joint capital for the coming 10
years. Now what does this joint capital even mean? It is just an indirect way of
declaring it a Union territory because the constitution does not speak
exclusively about joint capitals. Hyderabad would be ruled by a lieutenant
governor and the revenues generated by Hyderabad will be shared equally by
both the states (via the central government). The law and order will also be in the
hands of the central government. There is a great chance that Hyderabad could
be made a full-fledged union territory after that. After all, this was what happened
to Chandigarh which actually belonged to Punjab and more importantly, did not
have a contiguous border with Haryana. Chandigarh was enlarged to include
neighboring districts to create a contiguous border with Haryana- to serve as a
joint capital of both the states. The same could be done with Hyderabad 10
years from now. So I don't see how the state of Seemandhra would lose out on
Hyderabad.
5. Seemandhra would be a power-surplus state while Telangana would be a power
deficit state. Unlike Seemandhra, Telangana consumes a lot more power than it
produces- mainly because a lot of power is needed to irrigate the land there..
Seemandhra would have an infrastructure surplus, while Telangana would
become a landlocked state by losing out on major ports, coastline, golden
quadrilateral and major railway freight corridors (see the figure below). It would
also lose its share of revenues from the KG gas basin.
6.
8/1/13 Answer to Politics of India: What do you think about the Indian Government' s decision for the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh? - Quora
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7. The Telangana movement was very successful because of the involvement of the
students. KCR has promised government jobs to all these people. Now the real
question is how would he create all those government jobs? On the other hand,
a great amount of job creation would happen in Seemandhra because they
would need brand new infrastructure and need to build their new capital.
8. Identity politics and the loss of cultural capital all over again. This is probably
something the congress leaders sitting in Delhi would not understand
completely.The division is not only being made on the premise of under-
development but also on the basis of self-respect and Culture. How would the
people of Telangana reconcile with their identity issues once the division is over?
Is there a real leader who could make this process easy and rebuild their
identity? Would the Telangana people be able to assert their rights over the
Telugu language and its 4000 years of literature? Will the Telangana media
immediately switch to the Telangana dialect to reflect the new identity? Will
there be Telangana movies? Will the new Seemandhra state successfully hijack
the Telugu identity once and for all? Will Seemandhra emerge as a strong
language based state like Tamil Nadu? These are some tough questions that
need answers. They have no concrete answers, but my prediction is that there
is a danger of a deep identity crisis for a long time to come unless there is a
transformational leader who can make this process easy. After all, 4000 years of
identity cannot be divided as easily as a piece of land. This is similar to what
happened during India-Pakistan partition ( a bit exaggerated, yes).
9. Most people from Seemandhra feel the Telugu language did not get its fair share
of respect in some parts of Andhra Pradesh, especially Hyderabad- where it had
to play second fiddle to languages like Urdu and Hindi (Do not mistake this for
anti-Hindi sentiments).The image below shows the vandalized statue of a great
Telugu poet, during the Telangana Rashtra Samithi rally in Hyderabad. None of
the TRS leaders have ever apologized for this appalling incident. What did Potti
Sriramulu die for? What was the Telugu state he had envisioned? The formation
of a strong linguistic state like Seemandhra would be a great asset for the
Telugu language and its great literary tradition.Our neighbors in Tamil Nadu
have done an admirable job in protecting their linguistic identity and I hope we
would be able to do the same in the state of Seemandhra (of course without
resorting to all the linguistic politics).
So it's not just the land, water and money. The Seemandhra region might lose
out on water-sharing etc., but there is clearly a lot more at stake here.
Now how would all this affect the nation?
8/1/13 Answer to Politics of India: What do you think about the Indian Government' s decision for the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh? - Quora
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1. The Pandora's box of state division would be opened once again. There will be
demands for Vidharbha, Tulu Nadu, Saurashtra, Bundel Khand, Mithilanchal,
Gorkha land, Bodo Land, Purvanchal, Harit Pradesh and many others.
2. Economic barriers between the newly formed states of Telangana and
Seemandhra would impact the market forces and the overall trade in the region.
3. Communal forces would increase in Hyderabad and the Maoist activity would
grow manifold in the forest areas of Telangana. There is no concrete proof for
this but this has been the trend in the states like Chattisgarh- which actually
shares the Maoist affected forest area with Telangana.
4. This is clearly a case of the congress party exploiting sub-regionalism in order
to reap political benefits from it. Its pure social engineering at work. This is
nothing but a mockery of the Indian democracy. This a good example to show
that the Nehru-Gandhi family can merge and break any two regions of the
country according to their whims and fancies.
What is being reported in the national media is a very superficial analysis of
what is really happening. They make it seem like the division is Telangana's
gain, while it is actually Seemandhra's. Here is why- Imagine a state where one
half of it was like Gujarat and the other half was like Chattisgarh, and assume
they were forced to coexist. That was exactly how Andhra Pradesh operated,
thanks to Nehru's disastrous social engineering. [ I must also mention that I am
not trying to downplay Chattisgarh's progress by comparing it to Gujarat; I am
just trying to draw a comparison to indicate how different both the regions are].
Now that Telangana has voluntarily chosen to break away, the Seemandhra
region will be unchained, and the people there will finally be able to unleash their
true potential. If things go through as most of us expect, you have another
Gujarat in the making. I am not trying to say Telangana will not progress, I am
just saying Seemandhra would have a lot more to gain from this division. I hope
both the Telugu speaking states-along with the rest of India- prosper.This is how
I look at it. The others might have their own views.
Update: Congratulations to the people of both Telangana and Seemandhra- the
divorce is through. Owaisi's 'Rayala-Telangana' or 'Hyderabad state' luckily did not
happen; Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra have chosen to be together and to form
the new state. Hyderabad as of now will be a common capital for the coming 10
years.
Note: This is getting too viral for me to manage (people are sharing it a lot on
Facebook). So I have gone anon. If you want to follow me, leave a comment below
and I will send you a message.
Sources: All the graphs were taken from the Sri Krishna committee report
http://pib.nic.in/archieve/other...
Not for Reproduction