FINANCIAL SONAR: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE
CATERPILLAR INC NYSE CAT
MACHINERY INDUSTRY BUY OVERALL RATING FOR 3RD QUARTER 2012 www.jeffersonresearch.com 2012 Jefferson Research & Management Report prepared on November 16, 2012 OUR EVALUATION OF CAT CATERPILLAR INC is showing strong Earnings Quality, Cash Flow Quality, Balance Sheet Quality and Operating Efficiency, and Valuation suggests a lower amount of price risk. When combined, CAT deserves a BUY rating. The Earnings Quality rating improved the most during the most recent quarter. Though this dimension and all of the others were either stronger or unchanged at worst, the overall rating is already a BUY, the best rating available. HISTORICAL RATINGS Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 OVERALL RATING BUY BUY BUY BUY EARNINGS QUALITY STRONG STRONG STRONG STRONGEST CASH FLOW QUALITY STRONGEST STRONGEST STRONGEST STRONGEST OPERATING EFFICIENCY STRONG STRONG STRONG STRONG BALANCE SHEET WEAK STRONGEST STRONGEST STRONGEST VALUATION LEAST RISK LEAST RISK LEAST RISK LEAST RISK FINANCIAL SONAR FOR CAT 3RD QUARTER 2012 V A L U A T I O N L E A S T R IS K B A L A N C E
S H E E T S T R O N G E S T O P E R A TING EFFIC IE N C Y STRONG C A S H
F L O W
Q U A L I T Y S T R O N G E S T EA R N I N G S
Q U A L I T Y S T R O N G E S T PRICE TRENDS AND VALUATION Price (AS OF 11/15/12) $81.30 MARKET CAP. $53.2 BILLION PRICE/SALES 0.8 PRICE/EARNINGS 8.1 PRICE/EARNINGS GROWTH 0.2 PRICE/CASH FLOW 6.0 PRICE/ADJUSTED EARNINGS 8.1 PRICE/ADJUSTED EARNINGS GROWTH 17.4 PRICE/ADJUSTED CASH FLOW 5.7 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 52 Week High: $116.00 on 02/20/12 52 Week Low: $80.95 on 07/16/12 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2012 2011 50 Million 50 Million Average Weekly Volume Page 1 of 11 FINANCIAL SONAR: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE CATERPILLAR INC NYSE CAT MACHINERY INDUSTRY BUY OVERALL RATING FOR 3RD QUARTER 2012 www.jeffersonresearch.com 2012 Jefferson Research & Management Report prepared on November 16, 2012 EARNINGS QUALITY: STRONGEST Earnings quality has long been analyzed and used by investors as a measure of the fundamental quality of the company and its future prospects. Companies may be including certain items that increase reported earnings and often the amount of cash flow supporting the earnings may be weak. Jefferson adjusts for these kinds of items and other anomalies to produce an adjusted earnings number that more accurately reflects ongoing business fundamentals at CATERPILLAR INC. Reported earnings are compared to the Jefferson adjusted earnings as a means to gauge earnings quality. Also measured is the amount of cash flow that underpins earnings. The earnings quality for CAT improved from STRONG to STRONGEST. Though reported net income was unchanged from the previous quarter at $1,699M, the quality of that reported net income decreased. In addition, operating cash flow decreased during the last quarter to $1,255M from $1,677M, and the ratio of operating cash flow to earnings has also declined. NET INCOME VS. ADJUSTED NET INCOME $ IN MILLIONS Adjusted Net Income Adjusted Net Income as a Percentage of Net Income 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 Fiscal Year 2010 2 , 9 8 6 . 2 2 , 7 0 0 . 0 110.6% Fiscal Year 2011 6 , 1 1 0 . 5 4 , 9 2 8 . 0 124.0% Trailing 12 Months 6 , 8 6 1 . 6 6 , 5 3 1 . 0 105.1% Q2 2012 1 , 7 3 5 . 0 1 , 6 9 9 . 0 102.2% Q3 2012 1 , 6 4 3 . 0 1 , 6 9 9 . 0 96.7% EARNINGS VS. OPERATING CASH FLOW $ IN MILLIONS Reported Operating Cash Flow Operating Cash Flow as a Percentage of Earnings 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 Fiscal Year 2010 4 , 5 4 0 . 0 5 , 0 0 9 . 0 185.5% Fiscal Year 2011 6 , 5 5 3 . 0 7 , 0 1 0 . 0 142.2% Trailing 12 Months 5 , 1 2 5 . 0 4 , 7 5 7 . 0 72.8% Q2 2012 1 , 7 1 8 . 0 1 , 6 7 7 . 0 98.7% Q3 2012 1 , 4 6 3 . 0 1 , 2 5 5 . 0 73.9% ACCRUALS % OF SALES Actual Accruals Forcasted Accruals 7 5 . 7 % 6 6 . 1 % 7 5 . 0 % 6 2 . 7 % 7 0 . 6 % 5 8 . 6 % 6 3 . 3 % 6 0 . 2 % 5 8 . 1 % 5 8 . 2 % 5 4 . 8 % 5 9 . 1 % 5 4 . 8 % 5 9 . 1 % 5 5 . 3 % 5 8 . 1 % 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Page 2 of 11 FINANCIAL SONAR: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE CATERPILLAR INC NYSE CAT MACHINERY INDUSTRY BUY OVERALL RATING FOR 3RD QUARTER 2012 www.jeffersonresearch.com 2012 Jefferson Research & Management Report prepared on November 16, 2012 CASH FLOW QUALITY: STRONGEST Cash flow is considered by many investors to be the ultimate measure of company performance and more reliable than reported earnings. The Jefferson measurement eliminates items that are not part of recurring cash flow or the result of actual operations for CATERPILLAR INC. These adjustments to cash flow provide a truer measure of cash flow and the resultant cash flow quality rating. The cash flow quality rating for CAT remains STRONGEST as the operating cash flow quality year over year improved. Even though the annual operating cash flow quality improved this fiscal year with a reported number of $7,010M and an adjusted number that was 93.5% of reported, the decline in the quarterly operating cash flow quality offset this with a reported number of $1,255M and an adjusted number that was 116.6% of reported. This represents deterioration from the previous period when the reported number was closer to the adjusted number. OPERATING CASH FLOW $ IN MILLIONS Adjusted Operating Cash Flow Adjusted Operating Cash Flow as a Percentage of Operating Cash Flow 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 Fiscal Year 2010 4 , 5 4 0 . 0 5 , 0 0 9 . 0 90.6% Fiscal Year 2011 6 , 5 5 3 . 0 7 , 0 1 0 . 0 93.5% Trailing 12 Months 5 , 1 2 5 . 0 4 , 7 5 7 . 0 107.7% Q2 2012 1 , 7 1 8 . 0 1 , 6 7 7 . 0 102.4% Q3 2012 1 , 4 6 3 . 0 1 , 2 5 5 . 0 116.6% FREE CASH FLOW $ IN MILLIONS Adjusted Free Cash Flow Adjusted Cash Flow as a Percentage of Free Cash Flow -2,000 0 2,000 Fiscal Year 2010 8 7 0 . 0 2 1 1 . 0 65.0% Fiscal Year 2011 1 , 4 7 0 . 0 - 3 1 5 . 0 76.3% Trailing 12 Months - 1 , 0 6 0 . 0 - 1 , 4 2 8 . 0 134.7% Q2 2012 2 5 2 . 0 1 , 3 3 9 . 0 119.4% Q3 2012 - 1 0 7 . 0 1 , 9 2 7 . 0 294.4% FLOW RATIO 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 CASH FLOW ROI Adjusted Cash Flow ROI 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 DEBT COVERAGE Adjusted Debt Coverage 0 10 20 30 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Page 3 of 11 FINANCIAL SONAR: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE CATERPILLAR INC NYSE CAT MACHINERY INDUSTRY BUY OVERALL RATING FOR 3RD QUARTER 2012 www.jeffersonresearch.com 2012 Jefferson Research & Management Report prepared on November 16, 2012 OPERATING EFFICIENCY: STRONG The ability of CATERPILLAR INC to earn a profit is in part the result of how rapidly it converts its collection of assets into revenues and the resulting earnings and cash flow margins available. Operating Efficiency is measured by a combination of factors including: return on invested capital (ROIC), gross margin, EBIT margin, asset turnover, equity turnover, and lastly Staff, General, and Administrative costs as a percentage of sales (SGA). The operating efficiency rating for CAT remains STRONG as the return on incremental investment capital, ROIC, net margin, and gross margin strengthened over the last quarter, while at the same time the equity turnover, EBIT margin and SGA costs weakened. the decline in equity turnover offset this, deteriorating from 3.7X to 3.5X. The lower equity turnover indicates that CAT is generating less revenues per dollar of equity. GROSS MARGIN L UP Change from previous quarter: 30.0% 32.0% 34.0% 36.0% Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 EBIT MARGIN Adjusted EBIT Margin M DOWN Change from previous quarter: 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 NET MARGIN Adjusted Net Margin L UP Change from previous quarter: 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 SG&A AS A PERCENTAGE OF SALES L UP Change from previous quarter: 11.5% 12.0% 12.5% 13.0% Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Page 4 of 11 FINANCIAL SONAR: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE CATERPILLAR INC NYSE CAT MACHINERY INDUSTRY BUY OVERALL RATING FOR 3RD QUARTER 2012 www.jeffersonresearch.com 2012 Jefferson Research & Management Report prepared on November 16, 2012 OPERATING EFFICIENCY: STRONG ROIC Adjusted ROIC L UP Change from previous quarter: 7.5% 10.0% 12.5% 15.0% 17.5% Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 RETURN ON INCREMENTAL INVESTED CAPITAL L UP Change from previous quarter: -100.0% -80.0% -60.0% -40.0% -20.0% Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 ASSET TURNOVER
0.70 0.75 0.80 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 EQUITY TURNOVER M DOWN Change from previous quarter: 3.50 3.55 3.60 3.65 3.70 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 CASH CONVERSION CYCLE IN DAYS L UP Change from previous quarter: 100 110 120 130 140 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Page 5 of 11 FINANCIAL SONAR: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE CATERPILLAR INC NYSE CAT MACHINERY INDUSTRY BUY OVERALL RATING FOR 3RD QUARTER 2012 www.jeffersonresearch.com 2012 Jefferson Research & Management Report prepared on November 16, 2012 BALANCE SHEET QUALITY: STRONGEST The balance sheet shows the ability of CATERPILLAR INC to pay its bills and fund future growth. It also provides clues to aggressive accounting since reported earnings that do not generate cash flow generally end up somewhere on the balance sheet. The following are analyzed in determining balance sheet quality: quick ratio, current ratio, cash position, accounts receivable days sales outstanding (AR DSOs), and number of days inventory is held prior to sale to customers (Inv Days). The balance sheet rating for CAT remains STRONGEST as the cash position, debt/equity, AR DSOs, and debt/assets strengthened over the last quarter while the Inv Days weakened. Even though the cash position improved from $5,103M to $5,689M, the decline in Inv Days offset this by deteriorating from 139 to 140 days. The higher Inv Days indicates that CAT has lengthened the time inventory is held before it is sold to customers thereby requiring more working capital. RECEIVABLES DAYS OUT M DOWN Change from previous quarter: 100 120 140 160 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 INVENTORY DAYS OUT L UP Change from previous quarter: 110 120 130 140 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 CURRENT RATIO
0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Page 6 of 11 FINANCIAL SONAR: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE CATERPILLAR INC NYSE CAT MACHINERY INDUSTRY BUY OVERALL RATING FOR 3RD QUARTER 2012 www.jeffersonresearch.com 2012 Jefferson Research & Management Report prepared on November 16, 2012 BALANCE SHEET QUALITY: STRONGEST DEBT/EQUITY Debt/Tangible Equity M DOWN Change from previous quarter: 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 DEBT/ASSETS Debt/Tangible Assets M DOWN Change from previous quarter: 42.50 45.00 47.50 50.00 52.50 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 CASH $ IN MILLIONS L UP Change from previous quarter: 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 12,500 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Page 7 of 11 FINANCIAL SONAR: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE CATERPILLAR INC NYSE CAT MACHINERY INDUSTRY BUY OVERALL RATING FOR 3RD QUARTER 2012 www.jeffersonresearch.com 2012 Jefferson Research & Management Report prepared on November 16, 2012 VALUATION: LEAST RISK A favorable valuation (a LEAST RISK or LOW RISK rating) implies lower potential downward price risk that is evidenced by a company price multiple that is lower than the corresponding sector average. The valuation rating is based on both absolute and relative levels at CATERPILLAR INC compared to its peers within its sector based on price to earnings (PE), price to earnings growth (PEG), price to sales (PS), and price to cash flow (PCF). The valuation rating for CAT remains a LEAST RISK as the price to earnings and price to cash flow ratios became more attractive over the last quarter while the price to sales ratio became less attractive. Even though CAT's PE ratio relative to the sector average PE improved from 0.70X to 0.47X during the last quarter, the decline in the PS ratio relative to the sector average PS offset this by deteriorating from 0.50X to 0.73X. PRICE/EARNINGS RANGE LAST 2 YEARS LOW HIGH AVERAGE Reported Price/Earnings 8.10 22.70 14.58 Adjusted Price/Earnings 8.10 17.90 12.05 Sector Price/Earnings 13.20 22.60 16.83 As Reported Adjusted Machinery Sector 1 4 . 3 1 1 . 6 0 . 1 1 2 . 6 1 0 . 4 0 . 1 9 . 2 8 . 1 0 . 1 8 . 1 8 . 1 1 7 . 3 0 5 10 15 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 PRICE/CASH FLOW RANGE LAST 2 YEARS LOW HIGH AVERAGE Reported Price/Cash Flow 6.00 12.40 9.26 Adjusted Price/Cash Flow 5.70 13.70 9.93 Sector Price/Cash Flow 8.60 13.80 10.81 As Reported Adjusted Machinery Sector 9 . 5 1 0 . 1 1 0 . 1 8 . 5 8 . 9 9 . 8 6 . 3 6 . 4 8 . 6 6 . 0 5 . 7 1 0 . 8 0.00 2.50 5.00 7.50 10.00 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 PRICE/EARNINGS GROWTH RANGE LAST 2 YEARS LOW HIGH AVERAGE Reported Price/Earnings Growth 0.10 0.30 0.18 Adjusted Price/Earnings Growth 0.10 17.40 2.29 Sector Price/Earnings Growth 0.10 0.20 0.11 As Reported Adjusted Machinery Sector 0 . 2 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 3 0 . 2 0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 2 1 7 . 4 0 . 1 0 5 10 15 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 PRICE/SALES RANGE LAST 2 YEARS LOW HIGH AVERAGE Reported Price/Sales 0.40 0.90 0.63 Sector Price/Sales 1.00 1.60 1.26 As Reported Machinery Sector 0 . 5 1 . 2 0 . 4 1 . 2 0 . 5 1 . 0 0 . 8 1 . 1 0.00 0.50 1.00 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Page 8 of 11 FINANCIAL SONAR: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE CATERPILLAR INC NYSE CAT MACHINERY INDUSTRY BUY OVERALL RATING FOR 3RD QUARTER 2012 www.jeffersonresearch.com 2012 Jefferson Research & Management Report prepared on November 16, 2012 PEER VALUATION COMPARISON TICKER COMPANY MARKET CAP. PRICE ON 11/15/12 PRICE/ EARNINGS PRICE/ SALES PRICE/ CASH FLOW PRICE/ EARNINGS GROWTH VALUATION RATING CAT CATERPILLAR INC $53.2 B $81.30 8.1 0.8 6.0 0.2 LEAST RISK DE DEERE & CO $33.4 B $85.40 11.3 1.0 8.3 0.5 LEAST RISK ITW ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS $27.2 B $58.80 14.3 1.6 11.1 0.8 LEAST RISK CMI CUMMINS INC $18.0 B $94.90 9.9 1.0 8.1 1.0 LOW RISK ETN EATON CORP $16.3 B $48.30 11.6 1.0 8.2 1.3 LEAST RISK PCAR PACCAR INC $14.7 B $41.80 12.6 0.9 8.2 0.3 LEAST RISK IR INGERSOLL-RAND PLC $13.6 B $45.30 13.5 1.0 10.1 1.3 LEAST RISK MACHINERY SECTOR $4.3 B 17.3 1.1 10.8 0.1 PEER OPERATING COMPARISON TICKER COMPANY MARKET CAP. GROSS MARGIN (%) EBIT MARGIN (%) NET MARGIN (%) ROIC (%) CASH CONVERSION CYCLE (DAYS) OPERATING EFFICIENCY RATING CAT CATERPILLAR INC $53.2 B 33.6 16.4 10.3 15.8 132.0 LOW RISK DE DEERE & CO $33.4 B 30.2 14.7 8.2 12.2 23.0 LEAST RISK ITW ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS $27.2 B 38.3 17.0 11.7 14.3 95.0 LEAST RISK CMI CUMMINS INC $18.0 B 27.5 9.7 8.5 26.6 86.0 MEDIUM RISK ETN EATON CORP $16.3 B 34.0 10.5 8.7 12.4 72.0 LEAST RISK PCAR PACCAR INC $14.7 B 14.5 9.9 6.1 0.0 -20.0 MEDIUM RISK IR INGERSOLL-RAND PLC $13.6 B 34.3 12.5 9.3 10.3 63.0 LOW RISK Page 9 of 11 FINANCIAL SONAR: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE CATERPILLAR INC NYSE CAT MACHINERY INDUSTRY BUY OVERALL RATING FOR 3RD QUARTER 2012 www.jeffersonresearch.com 2012 Jefferson Research & Management Report prepared on November 16, 2012 DEFINITIONS Adjusted Net Income: Adjusted Net Income is a companys reported net income less adjustments for one-time and non-operating items yielding a more realistic picture of a companys ongoing earnings. Accruals Forecasted and Actual: The comparison of forecasted and actual accruals identifies a discretionary build not attributable to a companys sales growth, and could be a sign of poor earnings quality. For our purposes, the forecasted accrual component is an aggregate measurement of total accruals (short-term balance sheet accounts) that distinguishes between normalized and extraordinary accruals. The normalized accruals are based on historical relationships between sales and accruals and are dynamically adjusted over time to account for changes in the ratio between these two variables. Normally, short term accruals will grow as sales grow i.e., the normalized measure. Discretionary accruals are the portion of accruals that are in excess of the base factor and therefore exceed the normal and are extraordinary. Adjusted Operating Cash Flow: Adjusted Operating Cash Flow is reported operating cash flow less adjustments for one-time and non-operating items yielding a more realistic picture of a companys ongoing cash flow from operations. Adjusted Free Cash Flow: Adjusted Free Cash Flow is reported operating cash flow less adjustments for one-time, non-operating items and capital expenditures. This provides a more realistic picture of a companys ongoing cash generation from operations after capital investments. Flow Ratio: The Flow Ratio is a measurement of managements effectiveness in managing its working capital to maximize the companys cash flows. The measure is a ratio of a companys non-cash current assets to its non-interest bearing short-term liabilities. These non-cash assets include items such as accounts receivable (which are essentially interest-free loans to customers) and inventory (which is subject to obsolescence or spoilage). The non-interest bearing liabilities are essentially interest-free loans to the company. A lower ratio implies tighter cash management for a company as it has less cash tied up in non-cash current assets and is able to utilize interest free loans from suppliers. Cash Flow Return on Investment: Cash Flow ROI is a measure of a companys ability to generate operating cash flow from its invested capital. Many analysts consider this measure preferable to an earnings return measure such as ROE since cash flow is considered a more reliable measure. Adjusted Cash Flow Return on Investment: Adjusted Cash Flow ROI is a measure of the ability to generate operating cash flow from its investment in capital calculated using a companys adjusted cash flow. Debt Coverage: Debt Coverage is a measure of a companys ability to cover its debt obligations with cash flow it generated from continuing operations. Adjusted Debt Coverage: Adjusted Debt Coverage is a measure of a companys ability to cover its debt obligations with cash flow it generated from continuing operations, calculated using a companys adjusted cash flow. Adjusted Return on Invested Capital: Adjusted ROIC assesses a companys efficiency at allocating the capital to profitable investments using a companys adjusted net income (see above) yielding a measure of how well a company is using its capital to generate returns. Adjusted EBIT Margin: Adjusted EBIT Margin is a measure of a companys earnings before interest and income taxes less adjustments for one-time and non-operating items divided by a companys sales. Adjusted Net Margin: Adjusted Net Margin is a measure of a companys net income less adjustments for one-time and non-operating items divided by a companys sales. Return on Incremental Invested Capital: ROIIC measures the relationship between incremental investment and incremental net operating profit after tax. This provides a measure of the returns a company is earning on recent investments rather than all investments as measured by ROIC. Cash Conversion Cycle: The Cash Conversion Cycle measures the number of days working capital is tied up from the date of purchase of raw materials until the collection of cash from the sale of the product. Debt to Tangible Equity: Debt to Tangible Equity is a ratio of a companys debt to equity less adjustments for goodwill and other intangible assets yielding tangible equity. Debt to Tangible Assets: Debt to Tangible Assets is a ratio of a companys debt to total assets less adjustments for goodwill and other intangible assets. Price/Adjusted Earnings: Adjusted Price/Earnings is a relative valuation measure comparing a companys share price to its adjusted net income. Price/Adjusted Cash Flow: Adjusted Price/Cash Flow is a relative valuation measure comparing a companys share price to its adjusted cash flow. Price/Adjusted Earnings Growth: Adjusted Price/Earnings Growth is a relative valuation measure comparing a companys share price to its growth in adjusted earnings. Page 10 of 11 FINANCIAL SONAR: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE CATERPILLAR INC NYSE CAT MACHINERY INDUSTRY BUY OVERALL RATING FOR 3RD QUARTER 2012 www.jeffersonresearch.com 2012 Jefferson Research & Management Report prepared on November 16, 2012 ABOUT THE FINANCIAL SONAR REPORT & METHODOLOGY The Jefferson Financial Sonar ratings system classifies companies into three categories: Buy, Hold and Sell. The Financial Sonar rating is the result of a point scoring system derived from the five main criteria. The more negative the rating, the more likely the overall rating will be a Sell. More positive criteria will support an Overall Rating of Buy. Jefferson Research & Management has developed the Financial Sonar Rating System which is based upon five analytical criteria: Earnings Quality, Cash Flow, Operating Efficiency, Balance Sheet, and Valuation. The first four criteria are rated in one of four categories (best to worst): Strongest, Strong, Weak, Weakest. Valuation is also rated in one of four categories (best to worst): Least Risk, Low Risk, Medium Risk, Most Risk. ABOUT JEFFERSON RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT Jefferson Research & Management is an independent investment research and advisory firm founded in 1989 and based in Portland, Oregon. The firm has been providing fundamental research to institutional and individual clients for more than 20 years. Financial Sonar ratings are based on a proprietary rating system developed by Jefferson Research & Management that measures the changes in company fundamentals using information from financial statements. DISCLAIMER This report is for information purposes only for clients of Jefferson Research & Management and in no way should be interpreted as a complete investment recommendation. This report has been prepared exclusively by Jefferson Research & Management. Information contained in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made to its accuracy and no representation is made that it is complete, or that errors, if discovered, will be corrected. 1) Jefferson Research & Management and its staff are not involved in investment banking activities for firms covered. 2) No employee of Jefferson Research & Management is on the board of any covered company and no outsiders are members of Jefferson Research & Managements board. 3) Jefferson Research & Management employees trading stock in rated companies are subject to trading restrictions prior to release (once identified) and for a one day period subsequent to rating changes but do not individually or collectively own more than 1 percent of the outstanding stock of a covered company. No part of this report can be reprinted or transmitted electronically without the prior written authorization of Jefferson Research & Management. Page 11 of 11